Behind the Numbers: Retail’s New Calendar – Exploring Summerween and Christmas in July

Podcast Information:

• Title: Behind the Numbers: An EMARKETER Podcast
• Host: Marcus (EMarketer)
• Description: EMARKETER’s podcast, Behind the Numbers, delves into the shifting landscape of digital media, offering marketers, retailers, and advertisers critical insights. This episode, titled “Retail’s New Calendar: How Summerween and Christmas in July Are Changing Shopping,” examines the transformation of the traditional retail calendar and the emergence of new shopping events.

1. Introduction to the Evolving Retail Calendar

Marcus: Opens the discussion by highlighting the transformation of the holiday shopping calendar, introducing topics like Summerween and Christmas in July. He outlines the broad spectrum of retail-driven events, from traditional holidays to newly minted shopping days created by retailers themselves.

“We're not talking about holidays like Christmas and Hanukkah. We're talking about market share events or like events where all the retailers sort of can get around it across the entire calendar.”
— Susie [02:07]

2. Defining Market Share Events vs. Traditional Holidays

Susie differentiates between traditional cultural holidays and "market share events" — retailer-created shopping occasions that span the calendar year. She emphasizes understanding the nuances between emotional gift-giving occasions and purely promotional sales events.

“These cultural moments that are not an extension of Halloween. So Halloween is now starting in July. It's like a separate thing.”
— Susie [03:17]

3. Summerween: The Off-Season Halloween Phenomenon

Marcus introduces Summerween, a burgeoning off-season counterpart to Halloween, noting Walmart's adoption of early Halloween displays featuring unique items like watermelon Jack O’Lanterns.

Susie traces Summerween's origins to 2012, highlighting its growth from a niche subculture into a mainstream retail event boosted by social media virality.

“If a retailer tries to pretend like it's Hallo early, they've missed the mark on this new holiday because it's really about decorations. You know, fans of horror movies, people who are who love the genre.”
— Susie [06:01]

4. Christmas in July: Shifting the Holiday Shopping Timeline

The conversation shifts to Christmas in July, a trend accelerated by economic anxiety and retailers like Amazon and Macy’s launching mid-year sales events. Kailyn Roan from The New York Times is referenced, pointing out how shoppers are beginning their holiday preparations as early as June to take advantage of summer sales.

Sky discusses the statistics indicating a rise in early holiday shopping, noting a 5 percentage point increase in consumers starting their holiday shopping by July.

“The only correlation could potentially be budgets were a little bit tighter, inventory was a little bit strained, and we're starting to see that again now.”
— Susie [11:19]

5. Impact of COVID-19 on Shopping Behaviors

Susie and Sky explore whether the COVID-19 pandemic influenced the shift towards earlier shopping. While Susie argues that the primary driver is retailer strategy rather than pandemic-induced changes, Sky acknowledges that COVID-19 did play a role in establishing alternative sale periods like Amazon’s October Prime Day.

“Prime Day started as a one day event 10 years ago. Now it spans over four days.”
— Susie [17:43]

6. Overlapping and Extended Holiday Campaigns

As retailers stretch their promotional activities, holidays begin to overlap, potentially diluting individual events. Sky explains how extended sales periods, like Amazon’s Prime Day and category-specific sales, encourage consumers to delay purchases in anticipation of future discounts.

“We expect it to take place again and really be a big boost for Amazon and other retailers as well.”
— Sky [11:23]

Susie emphasizes that while merchandising for various holidays may begin earlier, it doesn’t necessarily cannibalize existing holidays due to strategic inventory management.

“It's not like just because Valentine's Day is over or overlapping with Easter chocolate… a lot of the holidays feel like they're overlapping more.”
— Susie [14:19]

7. Financial Implications: Budget Shifts and Consumer Spending

Marcus raises concerns about whether early shopping events like Summerween and Christmas in July divert spending from traditional holiday periods. Sky counters that retailers are spreading sales throughout the year rather than pulling money from one holiday to another.

“We're expecting weaker sales growth this year because more shopping activity is taking place earlier.”
— Sky [14:19]

8. Opportunities in Small Daily Holidays

The discussion transitions to smaller, "national" daily holidays that hold potential for retail expansion. Susie highlights days like National Coffee Day and International Children's Day as prime candidates for becoming significant retail events, provided brands engage thoughtfully with these occasions.

“One example is a popular Chinese liquor brand created a boozy ice cream… it was a huge hit.”
— Susie [21:09]

Sky adds that leveraging nostalgia and cultural significance can transform these minor holidays into major shopping opportunities.

“International Children's Day is not just for kids now, but it's also for Gen Z to indulge in nostalgia.”
— Sky [21:15]

9. Conclusion: The Future of Retail Calendars

As the episode wraps up, Susie and Sky agree that the retail calendar will continue to evolve with extended and overlapping holiday periods. Susie urges retailers to strategically balance branding and performance plays, ensuring that each holiday caters to emotional connections and promotional goals.

“I think they're all here to stay in some capacity.”
— Susie [17:43]

Sky observes that the expansion of holidays like Halloween into longer seasons indicates a trend towards more immersive and sustained consumer engagement.

“We have weeks of different events from her school and then of course ending with the big night itself.”
— Sky [18:25]

Key Takeaways:

• Retailers are reshaping the traditional holiday calendar by introducing new shopping events like Summerween and Christmas in July to capture consumer spending outside the conventional holiday seasons.
• Economic factors and strategic inventory management are driving the trend of earlier holiday shopping, allowing retailers to mitigate the risks of price increases and inventory strain.
• The COVID-19 pandemic played a role in establishing alternative sale periods, though the primary impetus for early shopping shifts is retailer-driven.
• Overlapping and extended promotional periods are becoming commonplace, requiring consumers to adapt their shopping timelines and possibly diluting individual holiday spending.
• Small daily holidays present new opportunities for retailers to engage with niche markets and create additional shopping events that can be leveraged for increased sales.

This episode provides a comprehensive analysis of how evolving shopping behaviors and retailer strategies are redefining the retail calendar, offering actionable insights for marketers and retailers aiming to stay ahead in a dynamic market landscape.