Retail’s New Calendar: How Summerween and Christmas in July Are Changing Shopping | Reimagining Retail

Summary

Behind the Numbers: Retail’s New Calendar – Exploring Summerween and Christmas in July

Podcast Information:

• Title: Behind the Numbers: An EMARKETER Podcast
• Host: Marcus (EMarketer)
• Description: EMARKETER’s podcast, Behind the Numbers, delves into the shifting landscape of digital media, offering marketers, retailers, and advertisers critical insights. This episode, titled “Retail’s New Calendar: How Summerween and Christmas in July Are Changing Shopping,” examines the transformation of the traditional retail calendar and the emergence of new shopping events.

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1. Introduction to the Evolving Retail Calendar

Marcus: Opens the discussion by highlighting the transformation of the holiday shopping calendar, introducing topics like Summerween and Christmas in July. He outlines the broad spectrum of retail-driven events, from traditional holidays to newly minted shopping days created by retailers themselves.

“We're not talking about holidays like Christmas and Hanukkah. We're talking about market share events or like events where all the retailers sort of can get around it across the entire calendar.”
— Susie [02:07]

2. Defining Market Share Events vs. Traditional Holidays

Susie differentiates between traditional cultural holidays and "market share events" — retailer-created shopping occasions that span the calendar year. She emphasizes understanding the nuances between emotional gift-giving occasions and purely promotional sales events.

“These cultural moments that are not an extension of Halloween. So Halloween is now starting in July. It's like a separate thing.”
— Susie [03:17]

3. Summerween: The Off-Season Halloween Phenomenon

Marcus introduces Summerween, a burgeoning off-season counterpart to Halloween, noting Walmart's adoption of early Halloween displays featuring unique items like watermelon Jack O’Lanterns.

Susie traces Summerween's origins to 2012, highlighting its growth from a niche subculture into a mainstream retail event boosted by social media virality.

“If a retailer tries to pretend like it's Hallo early, they've missed the mark on this new holiday because it's really about decorations. You know, fans of horror movies, people who are who love the genre.”
— Susie [06:01]

4. Christmas in July: Shifting the Holiday Shopping Timeline

The conversation shifts to Christmas in July, a trend accelerated by economic anxiety and retailers like Amazon and Macy’s launching mid-year sales events. Kailyn Roan from The New York Times is referenced, pointing out how shoppers are beginning their holiday preparations as early as June to take advantage of summer sales.

Sky discusses the statistics indicating a rise in early holiday shopping, noting a 5 percentage point increase in consumers starting their holiday shopping by July.

“The only correlation could potentially be budgets were a little bit tighter, inventory was a little bit strained, and we're starting to see that again now.”
— Susie [11:19]

5. Impact of COVID-19 on Shopping Behaviors

Susie and Sky explore whether the COVID-19 pandemic influenced the shift towards earlier shopping. While Susie argues that the primary driver is retailer strategy rather than pandemic-induced changes, Sky acknowledges that COVID-19 did play a role in establishing alternative sale periods like Amazon’s October Prime Day.

“Prime Day started as a one day event 10 years ago. Now it spans over four days.”
— Susie [17:43]

6. Overlapping and Extended Holiday Campaigns

As retailers stretch their promotional activities, holidays begin to overlap, potentially diluting individual events. Sky explains how extended sales periods, like Amazon’s Prime Day and category-specific sales, encourage consumers to delay purchases in anticipation of future discounts.

“We expect it to take place again and really be a big boost for Amazon and other retailers as well.”
— Sky [11:23]

Susie emphasizes that while merchandising for various holidays may begin earlier, it doesn’t necessarily cannibalize existing holidays due to strategic inventory management.

“It's not like just because Valentine's Day is over or overlapping with Easter chocolate… a lot of the holidays feel like they're overlapping more.”
— Susie [14:19]

7. Financial Implications: Budget Shifts and Consumer Spending

Marcus raises concerns about whether early shopping events like Summerween and Christmas in July divert spending from traditional holiday periods. Sky counters that retailers are spreading sales throughout the year rather than pulling money from one holiday to another.

“We're expecting weaker sales growth this year because more shopping activity is taking place earlier.”
— Sky [14:19]

8. Opportunities in Small Daily Holidays

The discussion transitions to smaller, "national" daily holidays that hold potential for retail expansion. Susie highlights days like National Coffee Day and International Children's Day as prime candidates for becoming significant retail events, provided brands engage thoughtfully with these occasions.

“One example is a popular Chinese liquor brand created a boozy ice cream… it was a huge hit.”
— Susie [21:09]

Sky adds that leveraging nostalgia and cultural significance can transform these minor holidays into major shopping opportunities.

“International Children's Day is not just for kids now, but it's also for Gen Z to indulge in nostalgia.”
— Sky [21:15]

9. Conclusion: The Future of Retail Calendars

As the episode wraps up, Susie and Sky agree that the retail calendar will continue to evolve with extended and overlapping holiday periods. Susie urges retailers to strategically balance branding and performance plays, ensuring that each holiday caters to emotional connections and promotional goals.

“I think they're all here to stay in some capacity.”
— Susie [17:43]

Sky observes that the expansion of holidays like Halloween into longer seasons indicates a trend towards more immersive and sustained consumer engagement.

“We have weeks of different events from her school and then of course ending with the big night itself.”
— Sky [18:25]

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Key Takeaways:

• Retailers are reshaping the traditional holiday calendar by introducing new shopping events like Summerween and Christmas in July to capture consumer spending outside the conventional holiday seasons.
• Economic factors and strategic inventory management are driving the trend of earlier holiday shopping, allowing retailers to mitigate the risks of price increases and inventory strain.
• The COVID-19 pandemic played a role in establishing alternative sale periods, though the primary impetus for early shopping shifts is retailer-driven.
• Overlapping and extended promotional periods are becoming commonplace, requiring consumers to adapt their shopping timelines and possibly diluting individual holiday spending.
• Small daily holidays present new opportunities for retailers to engage with niche markets and create additional shopping events that can be leveraged for increased sales.

This episode provides a comprehensive analysis of how evolving shopping behaviors and retailer strategies are redefining the retail calendar, offering actionable insights for marketers and retailers aiming to stay ahead in a dynamic market landscape.

Transcript

[Marcus]

Do you have an E commerce challenge? Of course you do. Who doesn't? Awin has you covered. Thank goodness. With AWIN's affiliate platform, brands of all sizes can unlock endless marketing opportunities and reach consumers absolutely everywhere. And choose partners that fit their goals, control costs, customize programs, and drive real results. Learn [e-mail] eMarketer and Schedule A platform demo today. Hey gang. It's Wednesday, August 6th. Dick, Susie, sky and listeners, welcome to Reimagining retail when you market, a podcast made possible by awin. I'm Marcus, your host for today and joining me for the conversation, we have two people. Let's meet the vice president of content heading up our retail desk based in New York. It's Susie. David Canyon.

[Susie]

Thanks so much for having me.

[Marcus]

Of course. And we have with us our principal retail analyst, living down in Austin, Sky Cannabis.

[Sky]

Hey, Marcus, how's it going?

[Marcus]

Hello there. Very good, how are you?

[Sky]

Great, thanks. Sorry, I just like lagged. I just lagged.

[Susie]

There's a little lag.

[Sky]

We can do that again. We can do that again.

[Marcus]

No, no, no. We'll power through. Susie didn't even ask. So the fact that it took you five seconds to answer. Sky, you're still way out in front.

[Susie]

Thank God it's not a game.

[Marcus]

Yeah, you've lost already.

[Susie]

Lost and last before we. It did indeed.

[Marcus]

Today's real how the holiday shopping calendar has evolved. Slash is evolving. Summerween spreads as Walmart mirrors Michael's early Halloween play, writes our Zak Stambor. He explains that Walmart has begun rolling out summer frights Halloween displays in about 1,000 U.S. stores featuring quirky early season items like watermelon Jack O' Lanterns to tap into consumers growing appetite for playful off season Halloween decor which has been gaining traction on TikTok and Instagram. Suzy Summerween, is it here to stay?

[Susie]

Okay, wait, so before we talk about Summerween, I think we need to talk about something a little bit broader in that we're not talking about holidays like Christmas and Hanukkah. We're talking about market share events or like events where all the retailers sort of can get around it across the entire calendar. And so that's everything from the Hallmark style man made ones like Valentine's Day to the like promo driven July 4th ones that everybody's participating in. Because then there's also like the Amazon prime which was an original retailer of like the Kohl's days or Kohl's cashback days or you know, lowest price of the season that has turned into what we are now calling holiday that everybody participates in. And I think those are all really important for a retailer to understand the nuances, especially between emotional gift giving versus cultural moments like the back to Summerween. These cultural moments that are not an extension of Halloween. So Halloween is now starting in July. It's like a separate thing.

[Marcus]

Yeah. Normally I'm furious when you don't answer the question, but I think we should have actually started here with the definition like what are we talking about? I made a mini list myself. It's kind of the ones that you've touched on. But I tried to break these out like so I'm going to spit these at you and then Sky, I'll turn to you, you can tell me what you think we should be including in this conversation. So I've got the Bank Holidays. So it's going to be MLK Day, President's Day, Memorial, Juneteenth, Independence Day, Labor Day, Columbus Day, Veterans Day, Thanksgiving, Christmas. Then you've got the big kind of made up, co opted shopping ones, the Valentine's Day, the Easter, Black Friday, Cyber Monday, Halloween. Then you've got the smaller kind of ones that people still buy things for. St. Patrick's Day, Father's Day, Mother's Day, Small Business Saturday, Green Monday. And then you've got those retailer invented ones, Amazon's Prime Day, Wayfairs, Way Day, Targets, Deal days, walmarts, holiday deals, etc. What are we talking about? Which one of these? All of them. Okay.

[Sky]

I think so. All of the above. They're all opportunities for retailers to boost sales, increase shopping activity and in some cases there are like strong cultural or emotional associations around them around gift giving. And I've seen in my lifetime some of these events evolve from, you know, fairly cultural ones into ones that are a lot more retail driven. I'm thinking about how Halloween has extended from a single day into now a whole possibly month festivities. And now there's a summer version of it. And even Easter when I was growing up, we put some candy in a basket and called it a day. And nowadays a lot of parents are making even more elaborate baskets with big presents and toys and all sorts of things and it becomes a much more.

[Susie]

And I think that brings a really good point. Right. So there's like these community moments and with social everything is becoming bigger and sort of more like take pictures and talk about it. And retailers are capitalizing on that, but they're also creating these other moments like so we are now talking about Summerween, which is completely different from Halloween, but Not. But then there are these, like, weird extensions like Galentine's Day and Friendsgiving, which is just another hopefully authentic way for a brand to get in to another moment in time, ultimately trying to drive sales. Right. These, like, if you think about all the holidays that you said, every month has one or two things that help a retailer sort of plan ahead and think about how to drive traffic to their website or to their store that is separate from the seasonality of summer, spring, winter, fall, sort of clothing.

[Marcus]

All right, Susie, so Summerween, is it here to stay?

[Susie]

Well, I think it's been here for so long, it's just recent that the retailers are jumping on it. Apparently it started in 2012 from a show called Gravity Falls and it was really more of a subculture niche thing. And then in 2000s, it's so weird to say that in the 2000s with social media, it became a little bit more viral and a little bit broader. And then last year in 2024, it hit it big. But if a retailer tries to pretend like it's hallo early, they've missed the mark on this new holiday because it's really about decorations. You know, fans of horror movies, people who are who love the genre. It's not about dressing up in costumes and having candy.

[Marcus]

Okay. So apparently it's not just shopping for Halloween in the summer, people also buying Christmas gifts as well. Forget Black Friday. Economic anxiety is leading to Christmas in July, writes Kailyn Roan of New York Times. She points out the folks are starting their holiday shopping earlier this year, using summer sales from retailers like Amazon and Walmart to save time and money. She was pointing to Katherine Sproul in the piece, saying that they've been stockpiling gifts for the December holidays since June, hunting for summer sales across big box retailers and then stashing them for later. Ms. Rowan from the Times saying that Black Friday no longer marks the beginning of the holiday retail season as a growing number of shoppers and retailers are embracing what's being called Christmas in July. Macy's one such example, running Black Friday in July sales event for five days starting July 23rd and a Christmas in July sale on July 25th for the first time offering holiday and general merchandise. Sky, in your opinion, what's the earliest you could see the majority of people starting their holiday shopping? Because this is some people. But you can argue that you need to get to critical mass before this becomes the norm.

[Sky]

Right? And I think most shoppers are still going to start in the fall months because that's just when it makes sense for most people. But we are seeing more shopping taking place earlier. That's been an ongoing trend and it's picking up again this year. Civic Science noted an uptick of about 5 percentage points in the number of consumers, or the share of consumers who had started their holiday shopping by July 1 to more than 20% this year from last year. And I think big sale events like Amazon's extended Prime Day at the beginning of July adds to that impetus of a good time to stock up. This year is so unusual because shoppers are so concerned about the price increases that are on the horizon and retailers have pulled up so much inventory and they don't want that sitting around and take the chance that they're going to have to mark it down so much more later in the season when consumers feel like they have less money to spend. So they're pushing the sales now. And I think more shoppers are 20%.

[Marcus]

Is a fair amount of people. Some other research pointing to this shift, 62% of U.S. adults starting their shopping for holiday gifts before November begins, according to ESW, 37% as early as September. And then some more research from Civic Science, 50% of US holiday shoppers starting before Thanksgiving. That was last year and that was up six points from the year before that. Suzy Ted Rossman, a senior industry analyst for Bankrate, thinks COVID 19 is responsible for pushing the timeline up even earlier because then we had supply chain issues and concerns over not getting gifts in time. What do you make of buying Christmas gifts in July? At first it sounded kind of, kind of crazy. But the more I think about it, especially this piece from Ms. Roan, it argues that why not, you know, Black Friday hasn't always existed. BBC article noting that the phrase came from police officers in the city of Philadelphia, describing the chaos of the Friday after Thanksgiving as people rushed to the shops to buy Christmas presents. And then in the 80s, retailers and businesses took it and started using it as a phrase to suggest that or to talk about define how they've started to turn a profit. But you don't have to buy gifts then. They didn't before. So why, why not the summer?

[Susie]

So I it's such an interesting question. I don't think it has anything to do with COVID If anything started the buying it in July, it was when Amazon started to doing their Prime Day. This is not a new thing. Black Friday in July. I think it depends who you're buying gifts for, right? If you're buying gifts for someone that is younger, who's looking for the latest, greatest, coolest thing, then you might be waiting. And if as a gift giver you are a thoughtful person that you see something and you're like this would be perfect for so and so, then you might even do that in March, right? Because it won't matter so much about what's trending, but it'll be about that perfect gift for that person that you're buying for. So I don't think that there is any sort of correlation between Covid and things moving earlier. The only correlation could potentially be budgets were a little bit tighter, inventory was a little bit strained, and we're starting to see that again now. So that could be the correlation. But I don't think it has anything to do with the holidays and a net new concept of shopping earlier.

[Marcus]

Yeah.

[Sky]

Well, I think the COVID challenges did create that new October sale period which is now firmly entrenched in the holiday or retail calendar because Amazon had to delay its 2020 Prime Day into October. And then that kind of sparked the idea of hey, having a big Octo prime member sale which is now taking place. We expect it to take place again and really be a big boost for Amazon and other retailers as well. Although its bigger impact on holiday shopping calendar is a little in question because it seems like at least last year a lot of consumers used these events to stock up on essentials rather than.

[Susie]

Necessarily buying these events. The holidays. And here I'm thinking about Christmas and Hanukkah or back to school or maybe to a smaller extent Valentine's Day. And they there there's an emotional connection as a gift giver or gift receiver who's giving a little list of things that you'd like to get for that period. Or you know, back to school is not really gift giving necessarily, but it is about like making sure that you have the right thing for your kid who's going to school. I think that's really different than July 4th sale or President's Day where it's just value, it's truly promotional and Amazon Prime f that it's truly a promotional component. And so if you are buying random household goods as a gift, then that's a good time to buy it because they'll definitely be on sale.

[Marcus]

People only have so much money and even though, you know, people do see retail sales going up pretty much every year, slightly more dollars. Zach was writing that Summerween pulls some of that spending forward and gives budget conscious shoppers playful reason to open their wallets even if they're feeling spooked. Well, Played by the economy. Sky, how much of a concern is there that this is just pulling money from the spending that they would have done in October for Halloween or from other holidays?

[Sky]

I think it's more around with each holiday. We see retailers stretching out the sales and promotional calendar longer so that the marketing starts earlier. Even the big sales like Prime Day are lasting longer. And that's not so much pulling money from other holidays as much as moving it around and spreading it out. I think when we look at the traditional holiday shopping season, which in our forecast is November and December, one reason why we're expecting weaker sales growth this year is because more shopping activity is taking place earlier. I think, for example, if you have someone on your list that you've got a big ticket item for and you think the price might go up by the time November, December roll around, more likely to buy it now or during the recent Prime Day sales than in that two month window.

[Susie]

And I think when you think about other holidays, you are seeing the stores merchandised a little bit earlier than in the past, that's for sure. But to Sky's point, I don't think that the money is moving around. It's not like just because Valentine's Day is over or overlapping with Easter chocolate because now things are so, so much longer than before the windows that you're not going to buy a heart and you're going to buy a bunny instead. You know what I mean? Like a lot of the holidays feel like they're overlapping more, but I don't. I think it's partly because in a, for example, pharmacy or a drugstore there are seasonal sort of end caps and so it's just easier to go from one to the next. And sometimes there's a little bit of overlap. If there's extra inventory, then it truly was meant to be like moving money from one holiday.

[Marcus]

So is this going to be like a rising, overlapping tide lifts all boats? Because do we envision, do we think that there won't be any holidays that lose out in the shuffle because of this?

[Susie]

I mean, that's a tough one, right? I think retail might lose out if people are becoming more and more cost conscious and trading down and foregoing holidays because it's manmade or it didn't meet their needs of community or, you know, fill in the gaps. Like, I don't know, I've never done Galentine's Day. I'm not sure that I ever would. I have some amazing girlfriends, but it's just not part of my world. So if more and More of these types of holidays don't inspire people. Maybe we'll lose out, but I don't think individually.

[Marcus]

Yeah. Also please.

[Sky]

And as we get more of these retailer driven shopping events that might pull away from some of those calendar holidays that are marketed as shopping or sales periods. I'm thinking of Memorial Day, for example, which traditionally is a time for people maybe to refresh their wardrobes or buy outdoor patio furniture or grills. And now if they know that there's going to be a huge Prime Day sale event six weeks later, they might hold out and wait. Or, you know, you see that you'll see an overlap between 4th of July sales and the Prime Day or prime adjacent sales from competing retailers. And so that might pull away from some Fourth of July marketing around sales.

[Marcus]

Don'T ever want to pay full price for things because they're always going to be looking for a deal.

[Sky]

Yeah, yeah. I think as there are more sales and consumers have them in mind, they wait to buy things. And you know, we see retailers like Amazon and others launching more category specific sales. In addition to the July Prime Day and the October Prime Day, Amazon also has a big spring sale which is not limited to prime members. And they've launched a bunch of category specific events around beauty, pets and books that also take place in the spring. So if consumers know that these events are coming, they are more likely to wait to stop them when they do happen.

[Marcus]

Prime Day started as a one day event 10 years ago. Now it spans over four days. What holiday, Susie, do you think will bleed, most likely bleed into a different month? Or is there a holiday like a Prime Day that you can see becoming a week, becoming two weeks becoming an entire month potentially.

[Susie]

So I think we're starting to see all of the holidays sort of try and take up more space. It might not move into a completely different month, but you will see the merchandising and the marketing bleed out longer. I don't think anything's going to get replaced necessarily, but I do think retailers really need to think about their strategy and think about holidays as either a branding play or a performance play and to really think about that emotional connection versus the purely promotional connection. So I think each retailer might play the holiday differently, but I think they're all here to stay in some capacity.

[Sky]

When I think of Halloween when I was a kid growing up, it really was just that one day or night. And now with a daughter of my own, it's more like a season. We have weeks of different events from her school and then of course ending with the big night itself. And then she doesn't want to wear the same costume for every event. So we have multiple costumes. So, yes, there is more. Definitely more spending, There is more candy consumption taking place across these weeks versus one night. So that's another way where it's not just where sales will increase, but not just because there's more marketing leading up to that event, but because the whole.

[Susie]

And the other thing, which we did.

[Sky]

Period, has been extended.

[Susie]

Too big of a topic for us. But don't forget that when you have these moments in time and you're driving traffic to your store or to your website, if you also have a retail media network, you're also able to capitalize. It's like you've planned ahead to drive traffic and so now can start selling ads and fueling that business in a different way.

[Marcus]

Sky, I love that your daughter's like, I won't be caught dead in a Captain Marvel costume two nights in a row. You kidding me?

[Sky]

I think it might be. I think it might be both of us. I want her to enjoy Halloween and have, you know, a full experience. It's not necessarily she needs more costumes. It's just that we're creative and we can.

[Marcus]

Final question here. Small daily holiday I'm calling these has the most potential to catch fire. What am I talking about? Well, today happens to be National Day for play. But, for example, this month you have national book lovers day, August 9th, middle child day on the 12th, where finally we can get some attention, kind of attention we deserve, and National Dog Day, August 26th. Susie, which. Which small daily holiday do you see becoming even bigger?

[Susie]

I mean, you picked some good ones, because I think the ones that are more likely to turn into a retail event are the ones where there is some sort of either cultural play, an emotional push that you can have strong visuals around, some strong sort of associations that have the opportunity to potentially go viral. Play on words, maybe a little bit of competition. So I was thinking about coffee, National Coffee Day, which, I'm sorry, I don't know what day that is, but, like, Starbucks fighting. Whoops. Starbucks fighting against. I say fighting in a very nice way, of course. Starbucks and Dunkin Donuts, you know, at sort of magical branding sort of words. But I think you can't just jump on a national day without thinking about your packaging, your merchandising. You know, like, you have to be all in for it to work.

[Marcus]

Yeah, Sky.

[Sky]

So one I've been excited about since I was a child is International Children's Day. And I think retailers have really missed out on that opportunity and not just for kids, but for adults as well. Now it is more, I think of a socialist holiday, kind of like International Women's Day and the International Labor Day May 1st. So maybe that's tinged its potential. But in China those are big marketing opportunities and Children's Day in particular is not just for kids now, but it's also for Gen Z to indulge in nostalgia. And a lot of brands have capitalized on that. One example I remember from a couple of years ago was a popular Chinese liquor brand created a boozy ice cream. It may have been a collaboration too and it was a huge hit and took took off. So you also have all like the kidalt brands like Pop Mart that's best known for the Labubu doll craze. And you know those brands also market around the International Children's Day. Ten points to children.

[Marcus]

Susie, you were right at the start of the episode.

[Sky]

It can be a holiday for everyone.

[Marcus]

Anyway, that's what we've got time for. That's what you thought.

[Sky]

But mate, maybe Summerween is our version of that where kids and adults can enjoy a made up holiday and indulge in more nostalgia in the summer as well.

[Marcus]

Thank you to Susie.

[Susie]

Thanks for having me back and of course to sky.

[Marcus]

And thanks to the whole editing crew and to everyone for listening to thank you. Reimagine Retail Any Marketer podcast made possible by Awin. I hope to see you on Friday for the behind the Numbers show where we'll be discussing Google Up.