Behind the Numbers: The Ad Dollars & Attention Mismatch—The Big Screen Ad Spend Gap, YouTube’s CTV Edge, and More

Date: August 29, 2025
Host: Marcus (EMARKETER)
Guests: Ethan Kramer-Flood (Principal Forecasting Writer), Minda Smiley (Senior Social Media Analyst)

Overview: Understanding the Ad Spend vs. Attention Disconnect

In this episode, Marcus, Ethan, and Minda dig into the persistent—and growing—disconnect between where consumers spend their time and where advertisers direct their budgets. They dissect device-level and platform-level mismatches (especially the mobile vs. connected TV dynamic), examine why so many ad dollars flow to Meta platforms even as consumer engagement shifts, and debate the underinvestment in streaming TV’s ad-supported arms (the “Big Screen Gap”). The conversation is rich with data, trend insights, and industry analysis grounded in recent EMARKETER reports by both Ethan and Minda.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. The Device Divide: Mobile Dominance vs. CTV Attention

• Main Point: There’s a dramatic imbalance: Mobile devices command a much larger share of ad budgets than the media time they actually receive, while Connected TV (CTV) and streaming services see the reverse.
  • Ethan: “The totality of the US ad ecosystem sends well more than 50% of its total ad spend to mobile device advertisements. Whereas we as a society actually only spend about a third of our time with media looking at mobile devices.” (05:19)
  • Marcus: “40% of time spent with media is watching the big screen—CTV plus linear—versus just having 20% of the ad dollars going there.” (05:53)
• Trends: The gaps are not closing—they’re widening.
  • Ethan: “Every year the gap gets further and further.” (06:18)
  • Mobile ad spend keeps growing, while mobile time spent has flatlined.
  • CTV viewership is surging, but ad dollars lag significantly.

2. Why Do These Gaps Persist? Effectiveness, Inertia, and ROI

• Main Point: The industry’s focus on mobile and social platforms is rooted in their advertising effectiveness and ease of buying, not simply habit.
  • Ethan: “The real answer is why is because it works…there’s a good return on their investment to do it that way…When we discover these misalignments, it’s not a value judgment…it works. But look at what you might be missing.” (10:13)
• Lag Effect: Often, audiences arrive first; ad dollars follow slowly.
  • Marcus: “Most of the time, the ad dollars aren’t arriving on the scene before people get there.” (12:22)
• Familiarity and Path Dependency: Advertisers stick with familiar platforms (especially social) because the process is easier and more efficient than breaking into new formats like streaming TV.
  • Ethan: “It’s easier to advertise on Facebook than it is to advertise on Netflix…people are just used to doing what they’re used to doing.” (20:13, 20:55)

3. The Social (Meta) Overinvestment – A Platform/Ad Spend Disparity

• Imbalance on Meta Platforms:
  • Minda: “Advertisers are just putting way more money towards Instagram and Facebook compared to how much time adults actually spend on these two platforms.” (07:49)
  • Meta receives ~75% of all U.S. social ad spending, but adults spend 40% of social time there. (11:22)
• Overcorrection in Social Spend:
  • Two years ago, time spent on social was 4 points higher than its share of ad spend; in two years, the gap reverses the other direction—an “overcorrection.” (08:51)
• Why Meta Still Attracts Ad Dollars:
  • Massive scale, sophisticated targeting, low barriers to entry, and proven ROI.
  • Advertisers’ appetite for safety and efficiency.
  • Minda: “There are a lot of reasons why advertisers spend on Meta … But…perhaps advertisers are putting too many eggs in Meta’s basket.” (11:22)

4. The Big-Screen Battle: YouTube CTV Edge & Social Networks’ Struggle

• YouTube’s Position:
  • YouTube has become the dominant “TV” platform—more people watch YouTube on TVs than any other platform. But it struggles to fully monetize this audience.
  • Ethan: “YouTube has become dominant…but is just far worse at turning that into ad revenue than the social network companies are.” (14:10)
• Social Platforms Trying to Crack the CTV Nut:
  • Instagram, Facebook, TikTok are pursuing TV apps—hoping to emulate YouTube, but it’s challenging.
  • Minda: “Their track record in this space…they haven’t been super successful. Facebook Watch, IGTV…didn’t really take off.” (13:10)
  • Viewing social content as entertainment has grown, favoring TV screens.
  • The experience of social feeds on TV is unproven and possibly unappealing.
  • Ethan: “It’s sort of like the social media companies are aware of what we’re talking about here…where people are is on the couch looking at the big screen.” (14:55)

5. The Sub-OTT Advertising Gap: Historical Context and Stubborn Lag

• Huge Discrepancy: People spend a quarter of their day on streaming services (Netflix, Hulu, Disney+, etc.), but under 4% of all U.S. ad dollars go to them. (17:23, 19:31)
  • Ethan: “This year, less than 4% of all advertising dollars will be going to those services…even though they are dominant parts of our culture and society.” (17:23)
• Reason—A Legacy of Ad-Free Models:
  • Many of these services only recently offered ad-supported tiers. For years, ad dollars had nowhere to go.
  • Now, inventory is abundant, but buying inertia persists.
  • Ethan: “That explanation is gone now…prices are actually going down because there’s so much now. But the share is not really going up.” (18:20)
• Outlook: Movement is slow—growth in ad spend is not keeping pace with time spent.
  • Projections: under 4% now, just over 4% in a few years despite rising consumption. (19:31)
  • Ethan: “There’s a legacy explanation…that explanation is gone now…share is not really going up.” (18:20)

Notable Quotes and Memorable Moments

• Ethan (on meta ad spend):
  • “Meta will bring in almost 75% of all social network ad spend in the US…but adults will spend roughly 40% of their time with social networks on Instagram and Facebook.” (11:22)
• Minda (on social becoming entertainment):
  • “People more than ever are viewing social media as entertainment…they’re viewing it in a way that’s very similar to TV.” (13:10)
• Ethan (on YouTube and CTV):
  • “YouTube is just far worse at turning [CTV viewing] into ad revenue than the social network companies are.” (14:10)
• Marcus (on overcorrection):
  • “There’s been an overcorrection in the other direction.” (08:51)
• Ethan (on streaming ad dollars):
  • “If you wanted to put all your budget on this stuff, you were not able to. They didn’t have the inventory...Now all these guys are leaning heavily into their ad-supported tiers.” (18:00)
• Ethan (humor, on more ads disrupting viewing):
  • “The last thing I personally want is there to be more ads when I’m watching…” (20:46)
• Minda (on the future of social TV apps):
  • “Will they pursue a more original strategy or…focus on creators…algorithm and AI recommendations? There’s so many different ways they could approach it…” (16:42)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• 04:13 — Overview of device-level ad spend vs. attention mismatches (Mobile vs. CTV)
• 05:19 — Ethan’s core stat: 50%+ of dollars on mobile, but only ~1/3 time spent
• 06:18 — The trend is worsening: gap is increasing each year
• 07:49 — Minda on Meta’s overrepresentation in ad budgets
• 08:51 — The social overcorrection: gap inverts over four years
• 10:13 — Why these mismatches exist: effectiveness, ROI, and “it works”
• 11:22 — Hard numbers: Meta’s ad revenue share vs. time spent
• 13:10 — Can social platforms succeed on CTV? Track record, obstacles, and shifting consumer behavior
• 14:10–14:55 — Two ironies: Social emulating YouTube; YouTube poorly monetizing CTV
• 17:23 — Sub-OTT path to advertising: why the huge gap between time vs. ad dollars?
• 18:20–19:31 — Ad inventory is now available, but share growth is barely rising
• 20:13–20:55 — Path dependency: why advertisers stick to what’s easy, despite opportunity

Closing Thoughts

• The gap between consumer attention and ad investments on CTV vs. mobile (and also between social platforms) is widening, not shrinking.
• Advertisers’ focus remains on platforms with proven performance and efficient tools, even if that means missing emerging attention “hotspots.”
• For marketers: recognizing these gaps may point to new opportunities—but shifting investment is far from trivial due to buyer habits and structural barriers.