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Rob Rubin
Did you know 70% of CMOs are now responsible for steering their company's AI initiatives? Find out what it takes to be a successful CMO in this new AI powered era of marketing. Download our playbook driving growth in the AI era, exclusively from Zetta Global. Hello, everyone, and welcome to the Banking and Payment Show, a behind the Numbers podcast from eMarketer made possible by Zeta Global. Today is February 11, 2025. I'm Rob Rubin, head of business development at eMarketer and your host today. Today we're going to chat about what's going to happen in the crypto market now that Trump is back in the White House. And joining me are emarketer analysts Grace Broadbent and Tyler Van Dyke. Hey, guys. How you doing?
Tyler Van Dyke
Hey, Rob. Happy to be back.
Grace Broadbent
Hi. I'm happy to be here today.
Rob Rubin
Yeah, I'm happy to have you guys back. Tyler, you haven't been back, especially in a while, so I'm so happy to have you. I wanted to, especially because you guys haven't been back, and I thought it would be fun because I'm not quite sure if you guys are young millennials or old gen zers, but you're in that sort of ballpark, and maybe I'm a few generations older. So I thought it would be fun if we took some of the expressions from my youth and see if you know what they mean.
Grace Broadbent
Oh, gosh, let's do it.
Tyler Van Dyke
All right.
Rob Rubin
Or if you know where it came from.
Grace Broadbent
Okay.
Rob Rubin
Be kind, rewind. Where did it become famous? Be kind, rewind.
Tyler Van Dyke
If I had to guess, it would be Blockbuster. The expectation that you rewind the VHS before you return it.
Rob Rubin
That is right.
Grace Broadbent
I would not have gotten that one.
Rob Rubin
What's your bag? What's your bag?
Grace Broadbent
Gen Zers, we say, let's go get this bag.
Rob Rubin
No.
Grace Broadbent
Is that similar?
Rob Rubin
What what's your bag is like, what's your problem? Like, why are you upset?
Tyler Van Dyke
Oh, that's. That's not one I've heard before.
Rob Rubin
Why are you crashing? That's a Gen Z expression.
Grace Broadbent
I'm crashing out right now. I'm crashing out during this conversation.
Rob Rubin
Right? You're wigging out. That's an old expression. All right, well, that was fun. Before we jump into our discussion about what's next for crypto now that Trump is president again, I wanted to give everybody sort of a quick background of how we got here. So when Trump was president from 2017 to 2021, he made no sweeping crypto ban or any monumental regulation, but he generally had a skeptical tone on Twitter. At the time, and any enforcement was really done at an agency level. Now, under the Biden administration, there were more formal efforts to coordinate federal oversight, and the SEC definitely took a stricter stance on crypto projects and exchanges. Now, during the recent campaign, Trump actually actively courted the crypto community, and he made some promises and that. So, you know, after the election in November, in fact, he and the first lady launched their own meme coins. So now he sort of likes crypto. So with that background, let's get into the headlines. In the headlines, I choose an article about the topic and we discuss it. And today I chose an article from a few weeks ago in Reuters. Crypto markets steady after Trump's first policy move. The article covered what's going on with bitcoin and Trump's first policy move. So let's start with Chris. Can you give us, like, your take first on what's going on with bitcoin since Trump won the election?
Grace Broadbent
The biggest news is it passed the $100,000 milestone, a milestone the community has been waiting for for years and years to finally happen. It happened very soon after the election. It was right after Trump nominated Paul Atkins to the SEC chair, which we think helped get the price right over that bump. Paul Atkins is a strong crypto advocate. He's co chaired crypto advocacy organizations in the past. So his nomination really set it off.
Rob Rubin
Tyler, what do you think? What has he done with bitcoin? Has it been working for them?
Tyler Van Dyke
Well, so far, in terms of concrete things, he hasn't done very much. The biggest thing was the executive order that he signed shortly after he was inaugurated that basically had four main parts. The first thing he did was revoked a Biden executive order that, you know, established a working group to study things like CBDC and crypto legislation.
Rob Rubin
Because we don't need any legislation or because.
Tyler Van Dyke
Well, presumably because who needs. Presumably because he didn't like the legislation that they were going to come up with.
Rob Rubin
Okay.
Tyler Van Dyke
The second thing that he did was he explicitly banned the creation of a cbdc.
Rob Rubin
Can you just sort of tell everybody what a CBDC is?
Tyler Van Dyke
Sure. A CBDC is a central bank digital currency. It is basically like a stablecoin, or it's like a stablecoin that's issued by the government itself. So.
Rob Rubin
So it's backed by the full faith of the government.
Tyler Van Dyke
Yes.
Grace Broadbent
People often refer to it as a digital dollar. People might be more familiar with that terms. It really would just be, yeah, like a doll, fully ditched.
Rob Rubin
So he's banned that. We don't do digital Dollars.
Tyler Van Dyke
He doesn't like it. A lot of Republicans typically don't like it. So it's out of here.
Rob Rubin
Okay, what else was in the executive order?
Tyler Van Dyke
He also established his own working group and set some deadlines for them to review existing regulations and propose new regulations and presumably also some legislation that, that would go to the Congress.
Rob Rubin
So that seems all sort of fairly standard fare like the. I'm going to shut his working group.
Tyler Van Dyke
Down and make my own. Yeah, that's very common. Common for a new administration to come in. And then the last thing that the executive order did was try to protect, quote, unquote, crypto's access to the banking system stems from the alleged chokepoint 2.0 allegations that the industry said the Biden administration and regulators were trying to basically cut them off from the banking system.
Rob Rubin
Is it. Wasn't that because of the money launderers?
Tyler Van Dyke
Because of the money launderers. The FTX explosion, crypto crash. Yeah, all those great things.
Rob Rubin
So their order was to stop that, like, so that we don't protect ourselves. Is that what they're ordering?
Tyler Van Dyke
Well, it's unclear what specifically it's referring to. There was never, you know, the Biden administration never like issued an executive order or passed any legislation that said, you know, we are cutting off the crypto industry from the banking system. Regulators did issue guidance saying to be very careful when you're dealing with crypto. There are rules about how crypto had to be reported. One of the other things that the SEC did after Trump's inauguration, they revoked a guideline that was published during the Biden administration that forced institutions to treat cryptocurrencies like liabilities. That was something that the industry hated. And they have.
Rob Rubin
Aren't they an asset? They are now, but I mean, they're, they're treated like an asset in terms of how investors think of them.
Tyler Van Dyke
Yes, we, we treat them and think of them as assets, but for reporting purposes, the SEC said that you had to treat them like a liability because of how risky they were.
Rob Rubin
Okay.
Tyler Van Dyke
And so that has been repealed.
Rob Rubin
So a risky asset is a liability.
Tyler Van Dyke
Apparently it was, but not anymore.
Rob Rubin
Okay.
Grace Broadbent
I was just going to add one more thing about the executive order and going back to them banning the CBDC as part of the wording in that they did decide that they are going to now prioritize private dollar back stable coins so that we expect the administration really to be pushing this, like privatized stablecoins instead of that. And so I think we will see some movement towards that in the future.
Rob Rubin
As well, what's a meme Coin and why does Trump have.
Grace Broadbent
Why does he have one? Is a very good question. A Meme Coin is basically just any cryptocurrency that is named after a person, a corporation, a figure, a cartoon, an influencer.
Rob Rubin
It's a tradable asset.
Grace Broadbent
It is a tradable asset. There's no intrinsic value value to it or anything like that. But Trump did launch one a few days before the inauguration.
Rob Rubin
But there is a value, right? Like if you can get someone to pay you for it, if you buy it and then you can get someone to pay you for it as a value?
Grace Broadbent
Yes. I mean, it has as much value as any cryptocurrency as opposed to like, obviously a stable coin is a different conversation, but yes, it has the same value as a Bitcoin. Theoretically, they're just. Meme coins tend to be way more volatile as assets. We've seen many launch and fail almost immediately. And we are already seeing that with Trump's meme coin on about the, around the 24 hours around his inauguration, it crashed about 50% from its peak.
Rob Rubin
Pump and dump is a story as old as time.
Grace Broadbent
Yes, yes. And Melania Trump has one as well. They launched that about a day after Trump's did. And it's actually interesting, they're now almost starting to push them as a payment method as well. They some of the Trump branded websites that are selling his merch, like his sneakers, his perfume.
Rob Rubin
So you can pay with Trump coins.
Grace Broadbent
Can now you can buy Trump merch with Trump coin.
Rob Rubin
So if you bought a Trump coin, I don't know what they're worth, but.
Grace Broadbent
Let'S say they're worth, they're about 17 right now.
Rob Rubin
So each Trump coin is worth 17. So if they're selling like Trump merch for 10 coins, then if. When the coin goes down, when the coin goes up, you get more. When the coin goes down, you get less because you're like, it's, it's not like buying it with a dollar where the values don't change very much from day to day.
Tyler Van Dyke
Yep, that's exactly. Yeah. The merchandise has like a fixed dollar value. And so whatever that calculates out to for the meme coin, that's. It's just what you end up paying.
Rob Rubin
So let's just, let's just suppose then that a country or an entity decided that they wanted to buy like a zillion container loads full of Trump stuff and they would pay with pay using the Trump meme coin. Could they do that?
Tyler Van Dyke
Yeah, absolutely. Yeah.
Grace Broadbent
There's no reason not to.
Rob Rubin
Who would benefit from that?
Grace Broadbent
Trump. I know, but no, I mean, there really is. There is no argument for using meme coins as a payment method. It really does not make sense. It's not a viable payment instrument at all.
Rob Rubin
But it could be viable for other things.
Grace Broadbent
It's viable for investment.
Rob Rubin
Currying favor.
Grace Broadbent
Yes. Or that. Absolutely.
Rob Rubin
This gets us to our final segment today, the rankings. I'm going to read four different potential outcomes for crypto over the next four years and we're going to rank them from most to least likely to occur. So the number one is the one that's you think is for sure going to happen. And the number four is something that it might happen, but it's less sure than the first one. So the first one is despite an executive order saying otherwise, US Launches a digital dollar. In the next four years, US Establishes a bitcoin reserve. So now the US Government owns bitcoin as a reserve. The third is, as we were talking about, the Trump coin. Trump gets in trouble for that. It's violating the emolians clause. He finds that countries and individuals and corporations are actually carrying favor with that meme coin and causing a problem. So that's one potential outcome. And then the US Is going to greatly expand its bitcoin mining capabilities as a result of executive action. So Trump is going to decide that minted in America is going to be important or mined in America. So he's going to want to make sure that we're really producing our finding our bitcoins. So you guys have had a chance to review that. So let's go through and you can put your numbers down on the table here and then we'll go through. So the first one, we can call it as, you know, a digital dollar before the end of the four years, a bitcoin reserve. Trump gets in trouble and there's bitcoining.
Grace Broadbent
In the U.S. okay, I'm ready.
Tyler Van Dyke
Wait, Rob, it looks like we're filling this out differently.
Rob Rubin
We are supposed to fill them different opinions.
Tyler Van Dyke
Is 4 most likely or least likely?
Rob Rubin
Least likely.
Tyler Van Dyke
Least likely. Okay.
Rob Rubin
I think you're just surprised at my.
Tyler Van Dyke
Choice is what you're saying.
Rob Rubin
I think you said that you all both said you put four fours as he is not going to create a. They're not going to have a digital dollar in the next four years. And I said that that's the one that's most likely to occur. And I'm just playing off of the ego of Trump and it's going to turn around before the end of four years, that it would be a good thing that he did that for him. So that's why I say one, I think you guys are saying, tell me it's because of the executive order.
Grace Broadbent
And my argument isn't that Trump can't change his mind on the executive order, but I do think Republicans as a whole have stayed firm in the past 5 or so years that they are very anti digital dollar solely for mainly privacy concerns. They're scared it would give like the government more power to like watch your transactions.
Rob Rubin
Now I want to go to your number one grace, because that's so interesting to me. More bitcoin mining.
Grace Broadbent
So that was one of the many campaign promises Trump gave in the crypto industry. He really wants crypto. He wants all the rest of crypto that is mined to be, quote, made in the U.S. it kind of goes along with his larger push for basically any good or service. He wants it to be made in the US A very US centric approach. And I think that fits into like his larger philosophies. And I think there's potentially less regulatory pushback on that particular initiative than maybe some of the other ones we are about to discuss or like the digital dollar.
Rob Rubin
So the argument about fossil fuels, yes.
Grace Broadbent
But that has never been top of concern in his agenda.
Rob Rubin
All right, now, Tyler, you put your number one as the bitcoin reserve that the US Is going to establish. A bitcoin reserve.
Tyler Van Dyke
Yeah, I think of the things that you, that, you know, we're choosing between, I think that's the most likely just because it's probably the easiest to do. I don't, I mean, I'm, I'm not a lawyer or a legislator. I don't think it requires like specific, like a bill to be passed for this to happen. The FBI already gets bitcoin when they, you know, when they recover it from like ransom, ransomware attacks and things like that. So somewhere, presumably the federal government already has a wallet and so do I. I'm not going to say I think it's definitely going to happen, but I think it has the best odds in this list.
Rob Rubin
Right.
Grace Broadbent
His executive order did direct agencies to explore it as well. And that was two crypto advocates were a little sad that it didn't go all the way in establishing one, but at least made the first baby step. So there's progress being made towards it, which is why I put it as number two for me.
Rob Rubin
Yeah. And I had it as number two as well.
Grace Broadbent
Yeah.
Rob Rubin
And we all had between two or three for the Trump gets in trouble for his Trump coin. So I think we all think no one's going to be too surprised when there's news coming out about somebody buying a lot of it.
Grace Broadbent
Yeah. And so I mean of course Democratic lawmakers have already taken issue with it. They did so almost immediately led by Senator Warren. They did send a letter to Treasury Department, sec, other agencies. She's to look into the legal and ethical questions of it. So I don't think it's a matter of will there be concerns around it. It's more so a question of will there be any.
Rob Rubin
Yeah, but will it be like an issue. Hey, will like something that's a fact, like look what someone look what's going on.
Grace Broadbent
Yeah. And will there be. Yeah, any sort of actual action or punishment in the source is really the question up in there.
Rob Rubin
You know we've been going back and forth on all this. I just first I want to just say that I'm going to give up. I put that they were going to set up a digital dollar as number one because I knew you guys were going to make it number four to be contrarian. I don't know if he's going to do that. I sort of think we all agree that a bitcoin reserve is probably pretty likely shenanigans are going to happen with the Trump meme coin. Probably. I wasn't so sure about what role the federal government can play in more bitcoin mining or that might be more state oriented incentives to create these data farms, data centers to do that. I'm not really sure how it all works. That's why I put mine as number four for that because I don't know how much the federal government can really influence that. Yeah, maybe in partnership with the state.
Grace Broadbent
Yeah, I agree. I definitely will be. There will be state level actions involved.
Tyler Van Dyke
The other thing that we have to consider now is that all of our energy needs to go toward AI now. I mean you have, you know, Microsoft reactivating Three Mile island, which you know, it's right outside my hometown. So that was big news when that was announced. And so I think from an investment perspective people are going to be much more likely to use that power for AI rather than for bitcoin mining.
Rob Rubin
My kids were playing with ChatGPT and then they actually got upset when they realized that they were wasting electricity.
Tyler Van Dyke
Very eco conscious children.
Rob Rubin
Right. I don't want to, I don't want to ask it too taxing a question. Before we finish. This has been great. I wanted to talk about what do we think the crypto landscape is actually going to look like at the end of the year? Is it going to be. I mean, me personally, I think bitcoin is as firmly established as the gold standard, the most stable of all. So it's going to be where it is or stronger. What do you guys think?
Grace Broadbent
I agree. I think bitcoin. Yeah. Has established itself as the main investment asset. I also think the Trump administration is definitely going to bring more regulatory clarity to the industry and more cooperation that, especially as an analyst. I follow the payments industry super closely, and I definitely think we're going to see a larger crypto payments push, which is going to be interesting. We've already seen, like the CEO of Bank of America said, you know, they're ready to move it all in on crypto payments as soon as the regulation is established. So I think we'll see some movement towards that with more financial institutions getting deeper into crypto this year.
Rob Rubin
All right, that's going to be really interesting for know your customer in terms of making those payments.
Grace Broadbent
Yes.
Rob Rubin
Well, I think this has been a fantastic show. I really thought it was a lot of fun to talk about. My brain is, like spinning right now trying to think of all the things we've been talking about and what could happen. I want to thank everyone for listening to the Banking and Payment show and eMarketer podcast made possible by Zeta Global. Also, thank you to our editor, Victoria. Our next episode is on March 11, so be sure to check it out. See you then. Bye, Grace. Bye, Tyler.
Tyler Van Dyke
See ya.
Grace Broadbent
Bye, guys. Thanks, Rob. This is so fun.
Podcast Summary: Behind the Numbers – The Banking & Payments Show: Crypto Under Trump, Bitcoin’s Path, and Where Digital Currencies Will Land
Released on February 11, 2025
Introduction
In this episode of EMARKETER’s Behind the Numbers podcast, host Rob Rubin delves into the evolving landscape of cryptocurrency under the renewed presidency of Donald Trump. Joined by eMarketer analysts Grace Broadbent and Tyler Van Dyke, the discussion navigates through Trump's crypto policies, Bitcoin’s trajectory, the emergence of meme coins, and the future of digital currencies in the United States.
1. Opening Banter: Generational Slang
Rob Rubin kicks off the episode with a light-hearted segment, bridging generational gaps by discussing expressions from his youth and their recognition among younger generations. Phrases like “Be kind, rewind” and “What’s your bag?” spark playful interactions:
This segment sets a relaxed tone before transitioning into the core topic of cryptocurrency under Trump’s administration.
2. Setting the Stage: Trump’s Crypto Stance
Rob provides a historical context of Trump’s relationship with cryptocurrency:
“When Trump was president from 2017 to 2021, he made no sweeping crypto ban or any monumental regulation, but he generally had a skeptical tone on Twitter. Enforcement was largely at the agency level.”
With Trump’s return to the White House in 2025, there’s a shift in tone as he actively engages with the crypto community, even launching his and Melania Trump’s own meme coins shortly after the election.
3. Bitcoin Surges Past $100,000
Grace Broadbent highlights a significant milestone:
“The biggest news is it passed the $100,000 milestone, a milestone the community has been waiting for for years and years to finally happen. It happened very soon after the election. It was right after Trump nominated Paul Atkins to the SEC chair, which we think helped get the price right over that bump.” [03:45]
Tyler Van Dyke adds context to the SEC’s role under Paul Atkins:
“Paul Atkins is a strong crypto advocate. He's co-chaired crypto advocacy organizations in the past.” [04:19]
Despite the surge, Tyler notes that concrete actions by Atkins have been limited, raising questions about the sustainability of Bitcoin's upward trajectory.
4. Trump’s Executive Order and Its Implications
Tyler Van Dyke breaks down Trump’s executive order affecting the crypto landscape:
Revocation of Biden’s Executive Order: Trump revokes a Biden-era order that established a working group to study CBDCs and crypto legislation.
“Presumably because he didn’t like the legislation that they were going to come up with.” [04:54]
Ban on CBDCs: Explicit prohibition of central bank digital currencies.
Grace Broadbent [05:26]: “People often refer to it as a digital dollar. It really would just be, yeah, like a dollar, fully backed.”
Establishment of a New Working Group: Trump sets up his own team to review and propose new regulations.
Protection of Crypto’s Banking Access: Aimed at countering allegations of the Biden administration trying to limit crypto’s integration with the banking system.
Tyler explains the complexities surrounding the SEC’s treatment of cryptocurrencies, highlighting the shift from viewing them as liabilities to assets:
“For reporting purposes, the SEC said that you had to treat them like a liability because of how risky they were. And so that has been repealed.” [07:42]
5. The Emergence of Trump’s Meme Coin
Grace Broadbent introduces Trump’s foray into meme coins:
“A Meme Coin is basically just any cryptocurrency that is named after a person, a corporation, a figure, a cartoon, an influencer.” [08:34]
Trump and Melania launched their meme coins around the time of his inauguration. While these coins are tradable assets, they lack intrinsic value and exhibit high volatility. For instance, Trump's coin experienced a 50% crash within 24 hours post-launch.
Grace Broadbent [09:38]: “We've seen many launch and fail almost immediately.”
Furthermore, these meme coins are being integrated as payment methods on Trump-branded merchandise websites, introducing unique challenges:
Rob Rubin [10:03]: “So you can pay with Trump coins… they're about 17 right now.”
6. Potential Future Scenarios: Ranking Crypto Outcomes
Rob Rubin introduces a segment where the trio ranks four potential outcomes for the crypto market over the next four years:
a. Digital Dollar vs. Bitcoin Reserve
Grace argues against the likelihood of a digital dollar within four years due to persistent Republican opposition rooted in privacy concerns:
Grace Broadbent [13:58]: “Republicans… are very anti digital dollar… they are scared it would give like the government more power to like watch your transactions.”
Conversely, both Grace and Tyler see the establishment of a Bitcoin reserve as a more feasible outcome:
Tyler Van Dyke [15:18]: “I think it has the best odds in this list.”
They cite existing practices where the FBI acquires Bitcoin from illicit activities as preliminary steps toward a national reserve.
b. Trump’s Meme Coins and Legal Challenges
The analysts anticipate regulatory scrutiny over Trump’s meme coins. Grace notes:
Grace Broadbent [16:34]: “Democratic lawmakers have already taken issue with it… led by Senator Warren… to look into the legal and ethical questions.”
While outright legal actions remain uncertain, the potential for political and regulatory backlash is evident.
c. Expansion of Bitcoin Mining in the US
Grace considers Trump’s campaign promise to bolster crypto mining in the US:
Grace Broadbent [14:26]: “He really wants crypto. He wants all the rest of crypto that is mined to be, quote, made in the U.S.”
However, Tyler raises concerns about energy allocation towards AI, potentially diverting resources away from Bitcoin mining:
Tyler Van Dyke [18:07]: “All of our energy needs to go toward AI now… people are going to be much more likely to use that power for AI rather than for bitcoin mining.”
7. Future Outlook: Crypto’s Stability and Institutional Adoption
Rob shares his optimistic view of Bitcoin’s stability, likening it to the gold standard:
Rob Rubin [19:00]: “I think bitcoin is as firmly established as the gold standard, the most stable of all.”
Grace concurs, emphasizing Bitcoin’s role as the primary investment asset and anticipating increased regulatory clarity:
Grace Broadbent [19:14]: “The Trump administration is definitely going to bring more regulatory clarity to the industry and more cooperation.”
She also foresees a significant push towards crypto payments, with major financial institutions like Bank of America ready to integrate crypto payments pending regulatory frameworks.
8. Conclusion
The episode wraps up with Rob expressing enthusiasm for the insightful discussion and thanking the guests:
Rob Rubin [20:03]: “I really thought it was a lot of fun to talk about… Thank you to our editor, Victoria.”
Grace and Tyler echo the positive sentiments, concluding the episode on a high note.
Key Takeaways
Trump’s Pro-Crypto Policies: Unlike his previous term, the current administration under Trump exhibits a more favorable stance towards cryptocurrency, including the introduction of meme coins and efforts to integrate crypto with traditional banking systems.
Bitcoin’s Momentum: Bitcoin reaching the $100,000 mark is a significant milestone, bolstered by favorable regulatory appointments but tempered by uncertainties around sustainable policy support.
Regulatory Landscape: The revocation of Biden-era crypto studies and the introduction of new executive orders signal a shift towards tighter yet potentially more supportive regulatory frameworks for crypto businesses.
Meme Coins and Legalities: The launch of Trump’s meme coins introduces new dynamics, potentially attracting regulatory scrutiny and political debates over their legitimacy and impact.
Future of Digital Currencies: While the establishment of a Bitcoin reserve appears probable, the introduction of a US digital dollar faces substantial political resistance. Additionally, energy allocation towards AI might impede large-scale expansion of Bitcoin mining in the US.
Notable Quotes
Grace Broadbent [03:45]: “The biggest news is it passed the $100,000 milestone… right after Trump nominated Paul Atkins to the SEC chair.”
Tyler Van Dyke [07:42]: “For reporting purposes, the SEC said that you had to treat them like a liability because of how risky they were. And so that has been repealed.”
Rob Rubin [10:06]: “So you can pay with Trump coins… if you bought it, you can get someone to pay you for it as a value.”
Grace Broadbent [19:14]: “Bitcoin has established itself as the main investment asset… we are going to see a larger crypto payments push.”
Final Thoughts
This episode of Behind the Numbers offers a comprehensive analysis of the intersection between politics and cryptocurrency, highlighting the potential shifts in regulatory frameworks and market dynamics under Donald Trump’s renewed presidency. As the crypto landscape continues to evolve, insights from analysts like Grace Broadbent and Tyler Van Dyke are invaluable for marketers, retailers, and advertisers aiming to navigate this complex environment.