Podcast Summary: Behind the Numbers – The Banking & Payments Show: Crypto Under Trump, Bitcoin’s Path, and Where Digital Currencies Will Land

Released on February 11, 2025

Introduction

In this episode of EMARKETER’s Behind the Numbers podcast, host Rob Rubin delves into the evolving landscape of cryptocurrency under the renewed presidency of Donald Trump. Joined by eMarketer analysts Grace Broadbent and Tyler Van Dyke, the discussion navigates through Trump's crypto policies, Bitcoin’s trajectory, the emergence of meme coins, and the future of digital currencies in the United States.

1. Opening Banter: Generational Slang

• Time Stamp: [00:00 - 01:25]

Rob Rubin kicks off the episode with a light-hearted segment, bridging generational gaps by discussing expressions from his youth and their recognition among younger generations. Phrases like “Be kind, rewind” and “What’s your bag?” spark playful interactions:

• Rob Rubin [00:00]: “I thought it would be fun if we took some of the expressions from my youth and see if you know what they mean.”
• Tyler Van Dyke [00:53]: “Be kind, rewind” – “If I had to guess, it would be Blockbuster.”

This segment sets a relaxed tone before transitioning into the core topic of cryptocurrency under Trump’s administration.

2. Setting the Stage: Trump’s Crypto Stance

• Time Stamp: [02:09 - 03:45]

Rob provides a historical context of Trump’s relationship with cryptocurrency:

“When Trump was president from 2017 to 2021, he made no sweeping crypto ban or any monumental regulation, but he generally had a skeptical tone on Twitter. Enforcement was largely at the agency level.”

With Trump’s return to the White House in 2025, there’s a shift in tone as he actively engages with the crypto community, even launching his and Melania Trump’s own meme coins shortly after the election.

3. Bitcoin Surges Past $100,000

• Time Stamp: [03:45 - 05:57]

Grace Broadbent highlights a significant milestone:

“The biggest news is it passed the $100,000 milestone, a milestone the community has been waiting for for years and years to finally happen. It happened very soon after the election. It was right after Trump nominated Paul Atkins to the SEC chair, which we think helped get the price right over that bump.” [03:45]

Tyler Van Dyke adds context to the SEC’s role under Paul Atkins:

“Paul Atkins is a strong crypto advocate. He's co-chaired crypto advocacy organizations in the past.” [04:19]

Despite the surge, Tyler notes that concrete actions by Atkins have been limited, raising questions about the sustainability of Bitcoin's upward trajectory.

4. Trump’s Executive Order and Its Implications

• Time Stamp: [04:51 - 08:12]

Tyler Van Dyke breaks down Trump’s executive order affecting the crypto landscape:

1. Revocation of Biden’s Executive Order: Trump revokes a Biden-era order that established a working group to study CBDCs and crypto legislation.

   “Presumably because he didn’t like the legislation that they were going to come up with.” [04:54]

2. Ban on CBDCs: Explicit prohibition of central bank digital currencies.

   Grace Broadbent [05:26]: “People often refer to it as a digital dollar. It really would just be, yeah, like a dollar, fully backed.”

3. Establishment of a New Working Group: Trump sets up his own team to review and propose new regulations.

4. Protection of Crypto’s Banking Access: Aimed at countering allegations of the Biden administration trying to limit crypto’s integration with the banking system.

Tyler explains the complexities surrounding the SEC’s treatment of cryptocurrencies, highlighting the shift from viewing them as liabilities to assets:

“For reporting purposes, the SEC said that you had to treat them like a liability because of how risky they were. And so that has been repealed.” [07:42]

5. The Emergence of Trump’s Meme Coin

• Time Stamp: [08:34 - 11:21]

Grace Broadbent introduces Trump’s foray into meme coins:

“A Meme Coin is basically just any cryptocurrency that is named after a person, a corporation, a figure, a cartoon, an influencer.” [08:34]

Trump and Melania launched their meme coins around the time of his inauguration. While these coins are tradable assets, they lack intrinsic value and exhibit high volatility. For instance, Trump's coin experienced a 50% crash within 24 hours post-launch.

Grace Broadbent [09:38]: “We've seen many launch and fail almost immediately.”

Furthermore, these meme coins are being integrated as payment methods on Trump-branded merchandise websites, introducing unique challenges:

Rob Rubin [10:03]: “So you can pay with Trump coins… they're about 17 right now.”

6. Potential Future Scenarios: Ranking Crypto Outcomes

• Time Stamp: [11:01 - 15:18]

Rob Rubin introduces a segment where the trio ranks four potential outcomes for the crypto market over the next four years:

1. US Launches a Digital Dollar Despite Executive Order
2. US Establishes a Bitcoin Reserve
3. Trump Faces Trouble Over Meme Coins
4. US Greatly Expands Bitcoin Mining Capabilities

a. Digital Dollar vs. Bitcoin Reserve

Grace argues against the likelihood of a digital dollar within four years due to persistent Republican opposition rooted in privacy concerns:

Grace Broadbent [13:58]: “Republicans… are very anti digital dollar… they are scared it would give like the government more power to like watch your transactions.”

Conversely, both Grace and Tyler see the establishment of a Bitcoin reserve as a more feasible outcome:

Tyler Van Dyke [15:18]: “I think it has the best odds in this list.”

They cite existing practices where the FBI acquires Bitcoin from illicit activities as preliminary steps toward a national reserve.

b. Trump’s Meme Coins and Legal Challenges

The analysts anticipate regulatory scrutiny over Trump’s meme coins. Grace notes:

Grace Broadbent [16:34]: “Democratic lawmakers have already taken issue with it… led by Senator Warren… to look into the legal and ethical questions.”

While outright legal actions remain uncertain, the potential for political and regulatory backlash is evident.

c. Expansion of Bitcoin Mining in the US

Grace considers Trump’s campaign promise to bolster crypto mining in the US:

Grace Broadbent [14:26]: “He really wants crypto. He wants all the rest of crypto that is mined to be, quote, made in the U.S.”

However, Tyler raises concerns about energy allocation towards AI, potentially diverting resources away from Bitcoin mining:

Tyler Van Dyke [18:07]: “All of our energy needs to go toward AI now… people are going to be much more likely to use that power for AI rather than for bitcoin mining.”

7. Future Outlook: Crypto’s Stability and Institutional Adoption

• Time Stamp: [18:34 - 19:58]

Rob shares his optimistic view of Bitcoin’s stability, likening it to the gold standard:

Rob Rubin [19:00]: “I think bitcoin is as firmly established as the gold standard, the most stable of all.”

Grace concurs, emphasizing Bitcoin’s role as the primary investment asset and anticipating increased regulatory clarity:

Grace Broadbent [19:14]: “The Trump administration is definitely going to bring more regulatory clarity to the industry and more cooperation.”

She also foresees a significant push towards crypto payments, with major financial institutions like Bank of America ready to integrate crypto payments pending regulatory frameworks.

8. Conclusion

The episode wraps up with Rob expressing enthusiasm for the insightful discussion and thanking the guests:

Rob Rubin [20:03]: “I really thought it was a lot of fun to talk about… Thank you to our editor, Victoria.”

Grace and Tyler echo the positive sentiments, concluding the episode on a high note.

Key Takeaways

• Trump’s Pro-Crypto Policies: Unlike his previous term, the current administration under Trump exhibits a more favorable stance towards cryptocurrency, including the introduction of meme coins and efforts to integrate crypto with traditional banking systems.

• Bitcoin’s Momentum: Bitcoin reaching the $100,000 mark is a significant milestone, bolstered by favorable regulatory appointments but tempered by uncertainties around sustainable policy support.

• Regulatory Landscape: The revocation of Biden-era crypto studies and the introduction of new executive orders signal a shift towards tighter yet potentially more supportive regulatory frameworks for crypto businesses.

• Meme Coins and Legalities: The launch of Trump’s meme coins introduces new dynamics, potentially attracting regulatory scrutiny and political debates over their legitimacy and impact.

• Future of Digital Currencies: While the establishment of a Bitcoin reserve appears probable, the introduction of a US digital dollar faces substantial political resistance. Additionally, energy allocation towards AI might impede large-scale expansion of Bitcoin mining in the US.

Notable Quotes

• Grace Broadbent [03:45]: “The biggest news is it passed the $100,000 milestone… right after Trump nominated Paul Atkins to the SEC chair.”

• Tyler Van Dyke [07:42]: “For reporting purposes, the SEC said that you had to treat them like a liability because of how risky they were. And so that has been repealed.”

• Rob Rubin [10:06]: “So you can pay with Trump coins… if you bought it, you can get someone to pay you for it as a value.”

• Grace Broadbent [19:14]: “Bitcoin has established itself as the main investment asset… we are going to see a larger crypto payments push.”

Final Thoughts

This episode of Behind the Numbers offers a comprehensive analysis of the intersection between politics and cryptocurrency, highlighting the potential shifts in regulatory frameworks and market dynamics under Donald Trump’s renewed presidency. As the crypto landscape continues to evolve, insights from analysts like Grace Broadbent and Tyler Van Dyke are invaluable for marketers, retailers, and advertisers aiming to navigate this complex environment.