Behind the Numbers: An eMarketer Podcast Episode: The Daily: Very Specific, But Highly Unlikely Predictions 2025, Part 1—TikTok’s Ban, X and Truth Social’s Alliance, and Who TikTok Shop Might Team Up With
Release Date: December 16, 2024

Introduction

In this episode of Behind the Numbers, hosted by Marcus from eMarketer, the team delves into a series of "very specific, but highly unlikely" predictions for the year 2025. Joined by Jasmine Emberg (Vice President and Principal Analyst covering social media), Suzy David Cain (Vice President of Content and head of the Retail and eCommerce desk), and Paul Vernon (Vice President of Content), the panel engages in a dynamic discussion to evaluate these bold forecasts in a Shark Tank-style format.

Fact of the Day

Marcus kicks off the episode with an intriguing fact about the largest concerts ever recorded by Guinness World Records:

• Jean Michel Ja performed at Moscow State University in 1997 with an attendance of 3.5 million people.
• Rod Stewart garnered a similar crowd, playing New Year's Eve 1993 at Copacabana Beach in Rio de Janeiro.

This staggering number, 3.5 million attendees, surpasses the legendary Woodstock festival and highlights the potential scale of future events. Paul Vernon humorously guessed, "Over 500,000," highlighting the surprise factor of the actual figures.

Prediction Round: Very Specific, But Highly Unlikely Predictions 2025

The core of the episode revolves around the panel members pitching their unique predictions for 2025. Each prediction is followed by a discussion where the team decides whether to "invest" in the likelihood of these scenarios materializing.

1. TikTok’s Ban Delayed

• Predictor: Paul Vernon
• Timestamp: [04:28]

Paul Vernon predicts that TikTok will successfully delay the January 19 deadline to divest from its Chinese parent company, ByteDance, by leveraging legal and political avenues. He cites the complex motivations behind the potential ban, including punitive measures against both TikTok and its competitor, Meta.

Paul Vernon [04:28]: "I predict that TikTok will succeed in delaying the January 19 deadline to divest from its Chinese owner... I think there is a strong desire to preserve the status quo, especially among the American public."

Discussion Highlights:

• Jasmine Emberg expresses cautious agreement but notes the unpredictability of relying on Donald Trump to intervene effectively.

  Jasmine Emberg [06:21]: "I think TikTok will succeed in delaying past the January 19 deadline, but relying on Trump to save TikTok is a really shaky strategy."

• Suzy David Cain counters with her belief that the ban will proceed, citing the limited timeframe and government momentum.

  Suzy David Cain [08:09]: "I think January 19th is truly around the corner and it'll be hard for them to make any big movements."

• Marcus provides context on shifting public opinion, noting a decline in support for the ban from 50% to 32% over the past 15 months.

• Jasmine adds that both Republicans and Democrats have shown decreased support for the ban, suggesting a complex political landscape.

Investment Decision:

• Jasmine Emberg chooses to invest in Paul's prediction.

  Jasmine Emberg [09:26]: "I'll invest."

• Suzy and Paul do not invest, aligning their beliefs with opposing outcomes.

2. Alliance Between X and Truth Social

• Predictor: Jasmine Emberg
• Timestamp: [10:15]

Jasmine Emberg forecasts an alliance between X (Elon Musk’s platform) and Truth Social (Donald Trump's social network). She believes that despite their current competitive tensions, the political and business interests could drive them to collaborate, enhancing both platforms' market positions.

Jasmine Emberg [10:15]: "I think there is a strong possibility that they could join forces. And if they did, they could become a much bigger and better business for both of them."

Discussion Highlights:

• Marcus references historical precedents where powerful leaders and business figures have formed alliances, only to later experience conflicts.

• Suzy David Cain raises regulatory concerns, questioning whether such a merger would attract government scrutiny for potential monopolistic practices.

  Suzy David Cain [12:50]: "Does this qualify as Monopoly and not Monopoly... the government might come in and say... you can't have two people coming together."

• Paul Vernon speculates on the possibility of the alliance unraveling, emphasizing the unpredictable nature of the relationship between Trump and Musk.

• Jasmine reinforces the potential for regulatory intervention but remains optimistic about the brand power of both platforms.

Investment Decision:

• Jasmine Emberg, Suzy David Cain, and Paul Vernon all choose to invest in this prediction, highlighting a consensus on the potential alliance despite acknowledged challenges.

  Marcus [15:00]: "We have three more very specific but highly unlikely predictions for you in tomorrow's episode."

3. TikTok Shop Partners with Nordstrom

• Predictor: Suzy David Cain
• Timestamp: [15:37]

Suzy David Cain envisions a joint venture where TikTok Shop is spun off and partnered with Nordstrom. This collaboration aims to blend TikTok's robust e-commerce capabilities with Nordstrom’s reputable customer service and fashionable brand, targeting a younger demographic and enhancing live stream shopping experiences.

Suzy David Cain [15:46]: "I think ByteDance will look to spin it off and form a joint venture with a retailer and the one I pick is Nordstrom... it needs to bring the Nordstrom name that I think is a stamp of approval."

Discussion Highlights:

• Marcus questions the feasibility of maintaining TikTok’s brand identity under Nordstrom’s ownership.

• Jasmine Emberg points out technical challenges, especially concerning the retention of TikTok’s algorithm and user base without its original operational framework.

  Jasmine Emberg [20:58]: "...without the algorithm that's surfacing that content... I don't know that it's still the same thing."

• Paul Vernon and Suzy debate the practicality of Nordstrom as a partner versus larger retailers like Amazon or Walmart, ultimately supporting Nordstrom’s suitability due to less governmental scrutiny.

• Jasmine reiterates doubts about TikTok Shop’s viability without its core platform elements, suggesting that creators may not migrate to a retail-based model.

Investment Decision:

• Jasmine Emberg and Paul Vernon choose not to invest, expressing skepticism about the practicality and potential success of the partnership.

  Jasmine Emberg [21:09]: "I'm not."

• Suzy David Cain attempts to propose her prediction but ultimately does not receive investment support from her peers.

Conclusion

The episode wraps up with a recap of the three bold predictions:

1. Paul Vernon: TikTok successfully delays the mandatory divestiture from ByteDance beyond January 19, 2025.
2. Jasmine Emberg: An alliance forms between X and Truth Social, reshaping the social media landscape.
3. Suzy David Cain: TikTok Shop enters a joint venture with Nordstrom, merging e-commerce with live stream shopping.

While Paul's and Jasmine's predictions garner investments from certain panel members, Suzy's bold forecast faces skepticism due to the intricate challenges it presents. The team teases future episodes, promising even more specific and unlikely predictions for listeners to anticipate.

Marcus [21:04]: "We have three more very specific but highly unlikely predictions for you in tomorrow's episode."

Notable Quotes:

• Paul Vernon [04:28]: "TikTok will succeed in delaying the January 19 deadline to divest from its Chinese owner."
• Jasmine Emberg [10:15]: "X and Truth Social will form an alliance... they could become a much bigger and better business for both of them."
• Suzy David Cain [15:46]: "ByteDance will spin off TikTok Shop into a joint venture with Nordstrom to leverage live stream shopping."

Stay Tuned

Join Behind the Numbers Daily for more insightful discussions and forward-looking predictions every Monday through Friday. Subscribe wherever you listen to podcasts and stay ahead in the ever-changing world of digital media.

Credits:

• Host: Marcus
• Guests: Jasmine Emberg, Suzy David Cain, Paul Vernon
• Production Support: Victoria (Editor), Stuart (Team Lead), Sophie (Social Media)
• Sponsored by: LiveRamp