The Daily: Very Specific, But Highly Unlikely Predictions 2025, Part 1—TikTok’s Ban, X and Truth Social’s Alliance, and Who TikTok Shop Might Team Up With | Dec 16, 2024

Summary

Behind the Numbers: An eMarketer Podcast Episode: The Daily: Very Specific, But Highly Unlikely Predictions 2025, Part 1—TikTok’s Ban, X and Truth Social’s Alliance, and Who TikTok Shop Might Team Up With
Release Date: December 16, 2024

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Introduction

In this episode of Behind the Numbers, hosted by Marcus from eMarketer, the team delves into a series of "very specific, but highly unlikely" predictions for the year 2025. Joined by Jasmine Emberg (Vice President and Principal Analyst covering social media), Suzy David Cain (Vice President of Content and head of the Retail and eCommerce desk), and Paul Vernon (Vice President of Content), the panel engages in a dynamic discussion to evaluate these bold forecasts in a Shark Tank-style format.

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Fact of the Day

Marcus kicks off the episode with an intriguing fact about the largest concerts ever recorded by Guinness World Records:

• Jean Michel Ja performed at Moscow State University in 1997 with an attendance of 3.5 million people.
• Rod Stewart garnered a similar crowd, playing New Year's Eve 1993 at Copacabana Beach in Rio de Janeiro.

This staggering number, 3.5 million attendees, surpasses the legendary Woodstock festival and highlights the potential scale of future events. Paul Vernon humorously guessed, "Over 500,000," highlighting the surprise factor of the actual figures.

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Prediction Round: Very Specific, But Highly Unlikely Predictions 2025

The core of the episode revolves around the panel members pitching their unique predictions for 2025. Each prediction is followed by a discussion where the team decides whether to "invest" in the likelihood of these scenarios materializing.

1. TikTok’s Ban Delayed

• Predictor: Paul Vernon
• Timestamp: [04:28]

Paul Vernon predicts that TikTok will successfully delay the January 19 deadline to divest from its Chinese parent company, ByteDance, by leveraging legal and political avenues. He cites the complex motivations behind the potential ban, including punitive measures against both TikTok and its competitor, Meta.

Paul Vernon [04:28]: "I predict that TikTok will succeed in delaying the January 19 deadline to divest from its Chinese owner... I think there is a strong desire to preserve the status quo, especially among the American public."

Discussion Highlights:

• Jasmine Emberg expresses cautious agreement but notes the unpredictability of relying on Donald Trump to intervene effectively.

  Jasmine Emberg [06:21]: "I think TikTok will succeed in delaying past the January 19 deadline, but relying on Trump to save TikTok is a really shaky strategy."

• Suzy David Cain counters with her belief that the ban will proceed, citing the limited timeframe and government momentum.

  Suzy David Cain [08:09]: "I think January 19th is truly around the corner and it'll be hard for them to make any big movements."

• Marcus provides context on shifting public opinion, noting a decline in support for the ban from 50% to 32% over the past 15 months.

• Jasmine adds that both Republicans and Democrats have shown decreased support for the ban, suggesting a complex political landscape.

Investment Decision:

• Jasmine Emberg chooses to invest in Paul's prediction.

  Jasmine Emberg [09:26]: "I'll invest."

• Suzy and Paul do not invest, aligning their beliefs with opposing outcomes.

2. Alliance Between X and Truth Social

• Predictor: Jasmine Emberg
• Timestamp: [10:15]

Jasmine Emberg forecasts an alliance between X (Elon Musk’s platform) and Truth Social (Donald Trump's social network). She believes that despite their current competitive tensions, the political and business interests could drive them to collaborate, enhancing both platforms' market positions.

Jasmine Emberg [10:15]: "I think there is a strong possibility that they could join forces. And if they did, they could become a much bigger and better business for both of them."

Discussion Highlights:

• Marcus references historical precedents where powerful leaders and business figures have formed alliances, only to later experience conflicts.

• Suzy David Cain raises regulatory concerns, questioning whether such a merger would attract government scrutiny for potential monopolistic practices.

  Suzy David Cain [12:50]: "Does this qualify as Monopoly and not Monopoly... the government might come in and say... you can't have two people coming together."

• Paul Vernon speculates on the possibility of the alliance unraveling, emphasizing the unpredictable nature of the relationship between Trump and Musk.

• Jasmine reinforces the potential for regulatory intervention but remains optimistic about the brand power of both platforms.

Investment Decision:

• Jasmine Emberg, Suzy David Cain, and Paul Vernon all choose to invest in this prediction, highlighting a consensus on the potential alliance despite acknowledged challenges.

  Marcus [15:00]: "We have three more very specific but highly unlikely predictions for you in tomorrow's episode."

3. TikTok Shop Partners with Nordstrom

• Predictor: Suzy David Cain
• Timestamp: [15:37]

Suzy David Cain envisions a joint venture where TikTok Shop is spun off and partnered with Nordstrom. This collaboration aims to blend TikTok's robust e-commerce capabilities with Nordstrom’s reputable customer service and fashionable brand, targeting a younger demographic and enhancing live stream shopping experiences.

Suzy David Cain [15:46]: "I think ByteDance will look to spin it off and form a joint venture with a retailer and the one I pick is Nordstrom... it needs to bring the Nordstrom name that I think is a stamp of approval."

Discussion Highlights:

• Marcus questions the feasibility of maintaining TikTok’s brand identity under Nordstrom’s ownership.

• Jasmine Emberg points out technical challenges, especially concerning the retention of TikTok’s algorithm and user base without its original operational framework.

  Jasmine Emberg [20:58]: "...without the algorithm that's surfacing that content... I don't know that it's still the same thing."

• Paul Vernon and Suzy debate the practicality of Nordstrom as a partner versus larger retailers like Amazon or Walmart, ultimately supporting Nordstrom’s suitability due to less governmental scrutiny.

• Jasmine reiterates doubts about TikTok Shop’s viability without its core platform elements, suggesting that creators may not migrate to a retail-based model.

Investment Decision:

• Jasmine Emberg and Paul Vernon choose not to invest, expressing skepticism about the practicality and potential success of the partnership.

  Jasmine Emberg [21:09]: "I'm not."

• Suzy David Cain attempts to propose her prediction but ultimately does not receive investment support from her peers.

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Conclusion

The episode wraps up with a recap of the three bold predictions:

1. Paul Vernon: TikTok successfully delays the mandatory divestiture from ByteDance beyond January 19, 2025.
2. Jasmine Emberg: An alliance forms between X and Truth Social, reshaping the social media landscape.
3. Suzy David Cain: TikTok Shop enters a joint venture with Nordstrom, merging e-commerce with live stream shopping.

While Paul's and Jasmine's predictions garner investments from certain panel members, Suzy's bold forecast faces skepticism due to the intricate challenges it presents. The team teases future episodes, promising even more specific and unlikely predictions for listeners to anticipate.

Marcus [21:04]: "We have three more very specific but highly unlikely predictions for you in tomorrow's episode."

Notable Quotes:

• Paul Vernon [04:28]: "TikTok will succeed in delaying the January 19 deadline to divest from its Chinese owner."
• Jasmine Emberg [10:15]: "X and Truth Social will form an alliance... they could become a much bigger and better business for both of them."
• Suzy David Cain [15:46]: "ByteDance will spin off TikTok Shop into a joint venture with Nordstrom to leverage live stream shopping."

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Stay Tuned

Join Behind the Numbers Daily for more insightful discussions and forward-looking predictions every Monday through Friday. Subscribe wherever you listen to podcasts and stay ahead in the ever-changing world of digital media.

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Credits:

• Host: Marcus
• Guests: Jasmine Emberg, Suzy David Cain, Paul Vernon
• Production Support: Victoria (Editor), Stuart (Team Lead), Sophie (Social Media)
• Sponsored by: LiveRamp

Transcript

[Marcus]

What does data collaboration do? It enables innovative companies to uncover powerful new insights that transform customer experiences and fuel business growth. With Liveramp, marketers get the industry's only interoperable platform for data collaboration across everything, cloud, walled garden and media platform.

[Jasmine Emberg]

Learn [e-mail] but without the algorithm that's surfacing that content, and also without those creators, without those users, and without that culture in one place, I don't know that it's still the same thing. Right. And I have a hard time believing that creators are going to start migrating to a Nordstrom.

[Marcus]

Hey, gang. It's Monday, December 16th. Suzy, Jasmine, Paul, and listeners, welcome to behind the Numbers Daily, an E marketer podcast made possible by Live Ramp. I'm Marcus. Today I'm joined by three folks. Let's meet them. We start with our vice president and principal analyst covering everything social media, based in California, it's Jasmine Emberg.

[Jasmine Emberg]

Hey, Marcus. Hey, everyone.

[Marcus]

Hello there. We're also joined by our vice president of content, also heads up our retail and e commerce desk. She is based in New York City. It's Suzy. David Cain.

[Suzy David Cain]

Hello. Thanks for having me.

[Marcus]

Of course, of course. And we're also joined by another one of our vice presidents of content. He covers pretty much everything else and he's based in Maine now and we refer to him as Paul Vernon.

[Paul Vernon]

Great to be here. And when I say here, I mean in the New York studio right alongside Suzy. If this were a video podcast, you would actually see us together.

[Marcus]

Yes, indeed. Thank you so much for all of you for being here for this episode as the predictions one. So you get to hang out with these three folks and myself again in tomorrow's episode where we'll have more predictions. But we start, of course, with the fact of the day. The largest concert ever, this is, according to Guinness World Records, is. Do you guys know this? No one knows this.

[Suzy David Cain]

Woodstock?

[Marcus]

No.

[Suzy David Cain]

Oh, it must be Taylor Swift.

[Marcus]

No. Nope. French composer Jean Michel Ja playing Moscow State University in 1997. And with an almost identical number of people attending their concert, English singer songwriter Rod Stewart played New Year's Eve 1993 at Copacabana beach in Rio. Guess how many people attended each of those respective concerts.

[Paul Vernon]

O. I have to guess. Over 500,000. Because, like, Woodstock was somewhere close to that vicinity.

[Marcus]

So 3.5 million people. How is that possible? Yeah, that sounds super dangerous.

[Suzy David Cain]

Wow.

[Marcus]

It's too many people gathered in one place, but yeah, apparently. So tomorrow we'll talk about ticketed concert numbers. I've got some of those for you for tomorrow's episode. But let's get to today's real topic. We've got for you some very specific but highly unlikely as a result, predictions for 2025 Shark Tank style part one. All right, so how does this episode work? Each person pull first will have 60 seconds to pitch a very specific but highly unlikely prediction for 2025. Then the rest of us, me, Jasmine, Suzy and folks listening will decide if they're going to invest quote unqu in this prediction. Basically, do you believe in it? Then we move on to the next contestant and repeat. So Jasmine's next. Me, Susie and Paul become the new panel. Each of our guests have one prediction for today and then another each for tomorrow's episode. So quickly to check in on some of the predictions we thought might come true this year. Paul, you're crushing it. Your publisher AI gold rush prediction that there'd be a lot more licensing deals made between publishers and AI companies in the second half of the year is doing incredibly well. Since you said that Time magazine signed a licensing deal with OpenAI, Conde Nas signed a multi year partnership with OpenAI. OpenAI Perplexity is now inked revenue sharing deals with the LA Times, Ad Week, the Independent, et cetera. So that definitely continued. Susie Lesso, you said Starbucks would be piloting drone deliveries. However, they did get a new CEO, so maybe that was in the works and he killed it.

[Paul Vernon]

Well, also they deliver him to the Starbucks headquarters every day by private jet. So there's that.

[Marcus]

Technically it's drone delivery, just big drone. And Jasmine, every prediction Jasmine has ever made apparently comes true, so never bet against her. That's how we've been doing. Get some new predictions in for you. We start with Paul. What do you expect to happen in 2025? A very specific but highly unlikely prediction.

[Paul Vernon]

I think it's very specific and frankly, highly likely. That's why I'm making it. But we'll let time be the judge of that. I predict that TikTok will succeed in delaying the January 19 deadline to divest from its Chinese owner. And either the incoming administration or the Supreme Court will then intervene essentially to preserve the status quo and nothing will happen in terms of a TikTok ban. And I say that partly because the motivation for banning TikTok is complicated. But when it comes to the incoming administration, which obviously will have a lot of weight in this decision, a lot of the motivation was punitive, not just against TikTok, but also there's the punitive aspect of helping TikTok can harm Meta. And Meta has been in the crosshairs of the administration. So it's hard to untangle these sort of like personal aspects from the threat assessment. But I think I just don't get the sense that we're going to end up with a TikTok ban in the US for just the way things are going.

[Marcus]

So I want to get Jasmine on this because you cover social for us, but just to catch folks up. So federal appeals court just upheld a law banning TikTok in America unless it gets sold off by its Chinese based parent company, ByteDance. By January 19, TikTok was claiming that the ban violates free speech rights of its users. The court says TikTok's ownership by a Chinese based company represents a national security threat that surpasses those free speech concerns TikTok raised. Incoming President elect Donald Trump said that he will save TikTok. However, he did try to ban them four years ago. So we're not quite sure there's appeals and reexaminations and the Supreme Court could get involved. TikTok did say, could you please freeze this ban until the new administration gets into office? Because they would get into office the day after the ban supposed to take effect, which is January 19th. So that's where we are right now. Jasmine, what do you make of all this?

[Jasmine Emberg]

So I was nodding while Paul was talking because I do agree that I think TikTok will succeed in delaying past the January 19 deadline. But I also think relying on Trump to save TikTok is a really shaky strategy. He is a wild card. He's flip flopped on TikTok before. If you look at a lot of the people who he's picked for his administration, many of them are anti TikTok. And actually stopping this law is a lot easier said than done. There's a lot of hurdles that he would have to go through in order to be able to halt the enforcement of it. And so I'm honestly like 50, 50 on this because while I do see Paul's point and I think there is a strong desire to preserve the status quo, especially among the American public, it's a law and that's hard now to change.

[Marcus]

Yeah, you said preserve the status quo among the American public. The opinion polling on this has been all over the map. But to your point, it's now come back down closer in favor of opposing the ban. So support for the ban a year ago. So a year and a half, March 2023, 50% of people said they supported banning TikTok US adults, that's dropped from 50% to 32 in basically the last like 15 months or so from that date, a pose has gone up a little bit. So almost. They're almost neck and neck now. So it does seem as though people are starting to gravitate much more towards keep it.

[Jasmine Emberg]

And that's true for people on both sides of the aisle. Right. And so while Republicans are more likely to support a ban and Democrats are more likely to oppose it, the number of people who support a ban has declined over the past couple of months for both Republicans and Democrats.

[Marcus]

Yep, Yep. Those numbers for me were in pure research. Susie, what do you think of Paul's prediction?

[Suzy David Cain]

So I'm obviously based on my own prediction thinking that it is gonna get the ban. And part of that is because I think six weeks is not enough time during the holiday season to move anybody to action. I don't know that it means that it'll be a forever ban, But I think January 19th is truly around the corner and it'll be hard for them to make any big movements. And I think the US is doing a lot of fear mongering. And so, you know, there are some fol. Although I heard the stats around people are not as opposed to it this year as last year, I still think there might be enough momentum for people to just let it die. The one thing that is the new part is that there's so much around money and influencer marketing and dollars that are attached to it that that's probably why it would be okay.

[Marcus]

Yeah.

[Jasmine Emberg]

The other thing is, I mean, there's still a chance for TikTok technically to sell. Right. And to find a US buyer. I mean. Well, that is. Am I encroaching on one of of your prediction?

[Suzy David Cain]

No, not at all. But I feel like you're setting me up pretty well.

[Jasmine Emberg]

All right, well, I will leave it until I hear your prediction. Let's do that.

[Marcus]

All right, let's get the thoughts on investments. Jasmine, you're investing in this prediction from Paul that TikTok will succeed in delaying the January 19 deadline to divest from its Chinese owner.

[Jasmine Emberg]

I'll invest. Sure. Can go either way.

[Marcus]

Okay, she's got one point all in. Suzy.

[Suzy David Cain]

Well, no, because my prediction is the exact opposite.

[Paul Vernon]

Okay, Susan, I won't take it personally. I guess I'm. I'm half betting on against Jasmine, which is means I'm half crazy and that's actually a lot better than I thought I was.

[Marcus]

So means you're taking wrong is what that means. But I am, I think I'm half in. I could see a world where they do get banned because all that means is disappear from the app store, doesn't mean that you can't use them on your device. So I can see a world where they get banned because they can't push the deadline. But then, you know, the day after, Mr. Trump's like, all right, I'm bringing them back. And so it will pop up again on the, on the app stores. So I'm going to say, hafin, let's move to our second prediction. Jasmine, you have one for us. What do you think is going to happen next year?

[Jasmine Emberg]

I'm so excited to share the prediction. It is more specific than highly unlikely, although, you know, it's unlikely as well. Anyway, so I think, I think X and Truth Social will form an alliance next year. So incoming President Donald Trump, of course, owns right wing social network Truth Social. Elon Musk owns X. He was a major advocate, major donor in Trump's campaign. He's also one of the two heads of the newly formed Department of Government Efficiency. And that means that Trump and Musk are competitors in business, even as their partners in politics, and that competition between them in business has intensified a lot. As you know, we've seen the content on X, the use cases and the user bases become more similar to Truth Social. Truth Social's user base, though, is a lot smaller. X's user base is declining, but it's really resilient. And so I think there is a strong possibility that they could join forces. And if they did, they could become a much bigger and better business for both of them. The catch here is that Trump and Musk are both wild cards. And while they're clearly in a bromance right now, all of this could fall apart.

[Marcus]

If they fall apart first, yes, that seems very possible. Sarah Kreps, professor of Law and Director of Tech Policy at the Cornells Brooks School of Public Policy. It's too long a title, Sarah, but she thinks differences will inevitably emerge. And Agraj Singh of Axios was pointing out there already are points of tension. You've got Mr. Musk, who actually backed Florida's Governor Ron DeSantis and his failed bid for the GOP's 2024 primary. So there's that. There's Trump's hawkish stance towards trade with China, which could harm Musk's EV business, specifically Tesla's Shanghai Megafactory. So there's already some points of tension. It doesn't take too big of a leap for you to think that, you know, maybe they do fall out and maybe that all of this does unravel and then also there was an article from the Economist noting there's no historical precedent for Mr. Musk's influence over Mr. Trump. But they were saying presidents and their business backers do tend to fall out. They had. William Hearst of the newspaper guy quickly became disillusioned with Franklin Roosevelt, whose first campaign for president he had enthusiastically backed Andrew Carnegie. The steel guy was the world's richest man at the time. Him and Theodore Roosevelt were falling out over foreign policy. So there's a bunch of examples in history of a very powerful president, a very powerful businessperson falling out, and things are unraveling. Poll Susie, what do you guys think?

[Paul Vernon]

Ladies first.

[Suzy David Cain]

Thank you. I had not given it that much thought. So what I would say upon first blush is that I don't know the size of Truth Social, but would this qualify as, like, Monopoly and not Monopoly? And you know how like, the government might come in and say, like, oh, no, you can't have two people coming together, companies coming together to form.

[Marcus]

Trump is the government.

[Jasmine Emberg]

Yeah, Trump is the government.

[Marcus]

Yeah, but it's a good question.

[Paul Vernon]

And so is Musk.

[Suzy David Cain]

Yeah, but, yes, totally. But at some point there's gotta be other folks that are gonna come in, like federal courts and say, oh, no, we can't have this. So I don't know. That was my only question.

[Marcus]

But Truth Social is not that big and X's user base is shrinking. Right, Jasmine? So it shouldn't threaten any. Yeah, I think so. Right, Jasmine, what do you think?

[Jasmine Emberg]

Yeah, exactly.

[Paul Vernon]

It's gonna be compared to Social overall, not just, you know, whatever you call micro used to be micro blogging or.

[Jasmine Emberg]

You know, and I think to your earlier point, Marcus, I mean, Trump is the government. And there's a lot of signs that indicate that companies across the board think that this new administration is going to be much more favorable to acquisitions next year. So, you know, it's. It's certainly not inconceivable, but I do want to share one stat because this kind of blew my mind as I was researching our report on politics and the Creator Economy if there was any doubt on how much influence Musk actually had in getting Donald Trump elected. There was a poll by Harvard Caps and the Harris Poll that asked voters which celebrity endorsement had the biggest impact. And 71% said Elon Musk, which was like, way ahead of everybody, including Taylor Swift. That's wild.

[Marcus]

Wow, wow, wow.

[Suzy David Cain]

He was so vocal, though, right? Like, Taylor Swift had her one Instagram picture that was like an underlying sort of support.

[Jasmine Emberg]

And Musk was vocal because he has his own microphone, which is X MM.

[Marcus]

And is truth social. I mean, I'm assuming that they would be happy to sell because, I mean, they're valued at a fair amount, but in terms of turning a profit, that's not going terribly well. So, yeah, I imagine they wouldn't be opposed to it.

[Jasmine Emberg]

I imagine the same. That is why I'm predicting this.

[Marcus]

I'm in.

[Suzy David Cain]

Yes.

[Paul Vernon]

And I'm in also with the caveat that I want to put dibs in for a prediction that the whole thing falls apart after they come together at some point. I want to be the one to make the prediction that the bromance ends and the business arrangement, whatever it is, if it's a licensing deal or partnership or a merger, that that also gets untangled.

[Jasmine Emberg]

I second that prediction and I have a continuation of that, which I will not share on this podcast just yet. But either way, oh, could hang out. Day two.

[Marcus]

Very nice. Very nice. Suzy, are you in?

[Suzy David Cain]

Yes, I'm in.

[Marcus]

Three full points. All right, everyone's in on that one. It makes sense. Jasmine's never wrong. Okay, Suzy, you're going to finish off the episode with giving us your prediction for 2025.

[Suzy David Cain]

Sure. So mine is equally specific and probably unlikely, but I do love it personally.

[Marcus]

Giving you a track record. Possibly.

[Suzy David Cain]

Yeah. Okay. Let's be honest, it's not going to happen, but I do think that it's food for thought and it is worth considering. Should TikTok get banned in. I think that ByteDance will look to spin it off and form a joint venture with a retailer and the one I pick is Nordstrom because Nordstrom is trying to go private, so it's going to have less sort of scrutiny and needs to be public with their investor information. There will be less government hands on it if it's private. Nordstrom is known for fun fashion, cool sort of factor, but it needs to bring in a younger customer, which obviously TikTok has. But Nordstrom has been trying to push its live stream shopping since 2021. So I think there is some interesting synerg for Nordstrom and for TikTok shop. In addition to needing an American owner that is maybe not in the public eye, I think Nordstrom will bring some sort of like a foundation that is rooted in good customer service and don't be worried and will get you what you need when you need it. It'll still leverage TikTok's inventory sort of like prowess, but it'll bring the Nordstrom name that I think is a stamp of approval. What I have not solved for that. Maybe we will solve for right now is should this happen, is that, does that mean that TikTok shop will just move into the Nordstrom livestream platform? That seems unlikely because we know that there needs to be a network effect which TikTok has. So I'm not really sure where the app would sit. Would it be co branded? Will the government not care if it's called TikTok if it's owned by Nordstrom? I don't know.

[Marcus]

That was going to be my question which you've posed a question about My.

[Suzy David Cain]

Question which is see how smart I am.

[Marcus]

Don't know where we go from here. But yeah, if it does get wrapped, if they can't use a TikTok name, I mean how much can they not? I'm not sure but say they can't. For example, do you think Nordstrom carries enough weight where that doesn't dilute the TikTok shop brand, so to speak?

[Suzy David Cain]

I mean we should ask Jasmine. But from my perspective, I would say Nordstrom carries enough weight if it's like TikTok shop provided by Nordstrom or Nordstrom's TikTok shop or something like there has to be some kind of co branded which was why I was like a joint venture so it wouldn't be an outright merger. It would have to be some sort of co branded activity. The tricky thing is that not everybody's obviously going to Nordstrom's lives streaming. There's no reason to go there. Right. But everybody's on TikTok all the time so it's maintaining that stickiness which is why I think they would. It's a bit semantic Y. Right. So like it would still be TikTok shop in partnership with Nordstrom and that would hopefully clear the airwaves of the like Chinese owned.

[Jasmine Emberg]

So the tricky thing about selling TikTok to a US buyer or spinning off part of TikTok or one of the tricky things really is that ByteDance would need approval from the Chinese government. Right. And the Chinese government has said that it won't allow companies to sell with a soft with their software, meaning that TikTok's algorithm likely wouldn't be included in the deal. My perspective is that TikTok without the algorithm probably isn't going to be TikTok and I don't really know how that would affect, you know, your prediction particularly. But would that change things for you, Susie? Maybe. I'm asking you more than anything else.

[Suzy David Cain]

So I the reason I also pick Nordstrom and not an Amazon or A Walmart is because I think it's less threatening for the Chinese government. But can Nordstrom replicate and use the algorithm? I agree. Like, the algorithm is what makes it different and all the people that are there that are already surfing the platform. So can TikTok Shop survive without people that are already scrolling on TikTok? That part I'm not really sure about. But if people are as sad about it going away, will they change their behavior to make it worth it for Nordstrom to do this? Potentially. Will the Chinese government give them the algorithm? Probably not. But will the government figure out a way to have some sort of Chinese wall between sort of like algorithm and operations? Maybe, Yeah.

[Paul Vernon]

I Wonder if the TikTok brand is powerful enough without the algorithm to be licensed or bought by. Could be a retailer, although I just don't see Nordstrom fitting into this. I see maybe Target, Walmart or Walmart.

[Suzy David Cain]

I think those guys are too big. I think that the government, the Chinese government's not. And I think that Nordstrom is trying to go private is also a really big. I don't know that TikTok shop could sell to another American retailer.

[Jasmine Emberg]

Well, so to Paul's point, I think the TikTok brand is strong enough. Right. There's a lot of love for TikTok. And one of the things that, you know, I talk to creators about all the time that's frustrating on the platform. Platform is that the love that consumers have for the content on there is really directed at the platform rather than the creators. And that's a problem overall with short form video. But without the algorithm that's surfacing that content and also without those creators, without those users and without that culture in one place, I don't know that it's still the same thing. Right. And I have a hard time believing that creators are going to start migrating to a Nordstrom. And I don't know. We have another set of predictions coming tomorrow, I think.

[Marcus]

Yes, indeed.

[Jasmine Emberg]

And I'll talk to you about where I think live shopping is going then.

[Marcus]

All right, Perfect. All right, gang. Investments. Are you in on this one, Jasmine?

[Jasmine Emberg]

I'm not. I'm sorry.

[Marcus]

Susie not in. She's out. Unbelievable. Paul.

[Paul Vernon]

Sorry, Suzy. Oh, can't do it.

[Marcus]

Can't do it. Suzy, I will give you a quarter of a pity investment point.

[Suzy David Cain]

No, I don't want a pity investment point. That's worse.

[Marcus]

That is definitely worse. All right, folks, that's all we've got time for for this episode. The three predictions we had were Paul saying TikTok will succeed in delaying the January 19th deadline to divest from its Chinese owner. Jasmine says that X and Truth Social will form an alliance, and Suzy thinks that TikTok will be spinning off TikTok shop in a joint venture with Nordstrom. We have three more very specific but highly unlikely predictions for you in tomorrow's episode. That's all we got time for for today. Thank you so much to my guests. Thank you to Paul.

[Paul Vernon]

Thank you.

[Marcus]

Thank you, Jasmine.

[Jasmine Emberg]

Thank you.

[Marcus]

Thank you to Susie.

[Suzy David Cain]

Thank you.

[Marcus]

And thank you to Victoria, who edits the show, Stuart runs the team and Sophie does our social media. Thanks to everyone for listening in. We hope to see you tomorrow for the behind the Numbers Daily. Any marketing podcast made possible by Liveramp.