Podcast Summary: Behind the Numbers – "What The Hell is Bluesky, and How Much of a Threat is it to X and Threads?" | December 3, 2024

Introduction

In the December 3, 2024 episode of eMarketer's Behind the Numbers podcast, host Marcus dives deep into the emergence of BlueSky, a decentralized social media platform, and evaluates its position and potential threat to established platforms X (formerly Twitter) and Threads. Joined by Jeremy Goldman, Senior Director of Briefings, and Daniel Konstantin Rich, an analyst specializing in marketing and advertising, the discussion navigates through BlueSky's origins, user growth dynamics, competitive landscape, and future prospects.

Overview of BlueSky

The episode begins with a brief, light-hearted exchange about Michelin stars before transitioning to the main topic: BlueSky. BlueSky, founded by former Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey, is presented as a decentralized alternative to X, allowing users greater control over their social media experience.

Key Points:

• Decentralization: Unlike X, BlueSky operates on a decentralized model, enabling users to customize handles, moderation filters, and algorithms. This flexibility is highlighted as a significant differentiator.
• Origins: Established in 2019 and spun off from Twitter in 2022, BlueSky aims to foster an open and free environment, as symbolized by its name's connection to Twitter's bird mascot.

Notable Quote:

• Daniel Konstantin Rich: “Blue sky is what we're talking about today. Maybe you use it, but what is it?” [03:03]

User Growth and Sustainability

A significant portion of the discussion centers on BlueSky's rapid user acquisition, especially following the US elections, where political shifts prompted users to migrate from X to BlueSky.

Key Points:

• Surge in Users: Post-election, BlueSky saw its user base jump from 9 million in September to 21 million by November 21, with estimates of adding around a million users per day.
• Sustainability: Daniel suggests that BlueSky can maintain its growth momentum if it continues to attract users disillusioned with X. Daniel Konstantin Rich states, “Momentum creates its own momentum” [04:53].
• Future Growth Levers: The absence of advertisements currently on BlueSky is a double-edged sword. While it attracts users wary of ad-centric platforms, it also means BlueSky isn't tapping into the lucrative advertising market yet.

Notable Quotes:

• Jeremy Goldman: “The platform does not have advertisements right now, which is something that's going for it...” [05:42]
• Daniel Konstantin Rich: “Blue sky has been around since not that long after Musk first acquired Twitter...” [17:11]

Competitive Landscape

BlueSky's potential competition with other platforms, notably Threads and Reddit, is dissected to understand the broader social media ecosystem.

Key Points:

• Absence of Sports Personalities: A critical gap for BlueSky is the lack of prominent sports figures who drive significant engagement on X. The inclusion of such users could trigger a substantial user shift.
• Competition with Threads: Threads, integrated with Instagram, boasts a massive user base of 275 million, outpacing BlueSky's 17,000. The seamless integration with Meta's ad ecosystem and impending ad features position Threads as a formidable competitor.
• Reddit's Role: Platforms like Reddit offer alternative spaces for live event discussions, diminishing the unique value proposition BlueSky offers.

Notable Quotes:

• Daniel Konstantin Rich: “Threads preparing to debut ads in 2025 might seem like a more attractive, safer option...” [13:51]
• Jeremy Goldman: “They were tired of picking the wrong restaurants.” [02:35]

Advertising and Monetization

The conversation delves into the monetization strategies of BlueSky compared to X and Threads, focusing on advertising as a revenue stream.

Key Points:

• Advertising Potential: While BlueSky currently eschews advertisements, there is speculation that it may adopt this model to capitalize on its growing user base. Jeremy compares this potential shift to Netflix introducing an ad-supported tier.
• Ad Revenue Dynamics: The absence of ads means BlueSky isn't directly siphoning ad dollars from X or Threads. However, as BlueSky scales, introducing ads could make it a significant player in the advertising domain.
• Market Strategy: Jeremy emphasizes the importance for marketers to stay abreast of emerging platforms like BlueSky to leverage growth moments effectively.

Notable Quote:

• Jeremy Goldman: “Advertisers want to reach where the people are.” [10:13]

User Base and Numbers

A comparative analysis of user statistics underscores the vast difference in scale between the platforms.

Key Points:

• Platform Sizes:
  • X: 360 million monthly active users worldwide.
  • Threads: 275 million users, up from 200 million in August.
  • BlueSky: Approximately 17,000 users.
• Growth Projections: While X is expected to lose users steadily, its massive base still dwarfs BlueSky's current numbers, making immediate competitive threat negligible.

Notable Quote:

• Daniel Konstantin Rich: “I’m going to give it like a three [out of ten] because X, you know, has the users to shed that Blue sky needs in order to grow.” [15:31]

Conclusions on BlueSky’s Threat Level

Ultimately, both Jeremy and Daniel assess BlueSky's threat to established platforms as minimal in the current landscape.

Key Points:

• Moderate Threat Assessment: Jeremy rates BlueSky as a 5 out of 10 in terms of threat, citing Meta's ability to adapt and the challenge of outperforming a large organization with limited resources.
• Lower Threat Rating: Daniel assigns a lower threat level of 3 out of 10, highlighting BlueSky's minimal user base and lack of immediate competition for advertising revenue.
• Long-term Outlook: While current numbers don't pose a significant threat, ongoing user decline on X presents potential opportunities for BlueSky's growth, albeit slowly.

Notable Quotes:

• Jeremy Goldman: “I think that it's too important to not be aware of these types of moments.” [07:10]
• Daniel Konstantin Rich: “The rise of Blue Sky does not really challenge Threads all that much.” [17:28]

Final Thoughts

Marcus wraps up the episode by acknowledging the insightful perspectives of his guests and teasing upcoming content. The discussion reinforces that while BlueSky is an intriguing development in the social media sphere, its immediate impact remains limited compared to giants like X and Threads.

Notable Quotes:

• Daniel Konstantin Rich: “I'll see you on Blue sky or Threads or X or all of the above.” [18:09]
• Jeremy Goldman: “Thanks so much for having us, Marcus. This was great.” [18:05]

Conclusion

The episode provides a comprehensive analysis of BlueSky's current position and potential within the competitive social media landscape. While BlueSky showcases promising growth and unique features, its limited user base and the dominance of established platforms like X and Threads render it a minor threat for now. Marketers and advertisers are advised to monitor such emerging platforms to capitalize on future opportunities effectively.