Podcast Summary: Behind the Numbers – EMARKETER Podcast

Episode: The Great BTN Bake (Take) Off — Forecast Trends for 2026: Podcasts Beat Music for Marketers and FAST Fuels AVOD
Date: January 16, 2026
Host: Marcus Johnson
Guests: Ethan Kramer-Flood (Principal Forecasting Writer), Oscar Orozco (Senior Director of Forecasting)

Episode Overview

This episode is the "Great BTN Bake (Take) Off," a fun, debate-style discussion of eMarketer's annual "Forecast Trends to Watch" report for 2026. The hosts and guests bring two major under-the-radar trends to the table:

• The increasing importance of podcasts over music for digital audio marketers.
• The explosive growth in ad-supported video-on-demand (AVOD), driven by free ad-supported streaming TV (FAST) services.

The episode pits these trends against each other in a three-round format: Signature Take, Technical Detail, and Show-Stopping Argument, aiming to reveal which marketing shift will be the most impactful in 2026.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Signature Take: What Are the Big Trends? (03:17–06:36)

Podcasts Will Surpass Music as Key Platform for Audio Marketers (Ethan)

• Podcasts are "still a pretty significant minority in terms of the attention that they get from marketers and advertisers." (03:02)
• Prediction: By 2026, podcasts will be more important for digital audio marketers than music, despite current ad dollars favoring music.

FAST Channels Are the Growth Engine of AVOD (Oscar)

• "AVOD viewership will cross 200 million for the first time."
• The main growth driver: FAST channels (Free Ad-supported Streaming TV platforms like Tubi, Pluto TV, Roku).
• "Check out [the report] when it drops," Oscar emphasizes its relevance for marketers. (04:47)

2. How Will These Trends Play Out? (Round 2: 06:54–21:26)

Podcasts Overtake Music in Ad Value

Ethan’s Technical Breakdown (07:09–13:05)

• Out of 240 million Americans listening to digital audio, only about 180 million are "ad-accessible" because many pay to avoid ads.
• "Way more of them are hearing ads via podcasts than are hearing ads via music." (07:44)
• Key Stats: By 2026:
  • ~150 million Americans will listen to podcasts monthly (~1/2 the population).
  • 120 million (1/3 of the population) will listen weekly.
  • 80% of ad-accessible digital audio audiences will hear ads through podcasts, vs. 50% through music. (08:25)
• However, marketers still spend 60% of digital audio ad dollars on music, 40% on podcasts—misaligned with audience.
• Programs and platforms for placing ads on podcasts remain "immature"—only about 10% of ads are placed programmatically. (11:25)
• Podcast ad spending is projected to cross $3 billion in 2026—up 14%, increasing its share of audio ad dollars.

Why the Lag?

• "Inertia" and the newness of podcasts (11:25–12:12).
• Less-developed programmatic buying and higher costs for host-read podcast ads.

“The advertising dollar investments do not reflect what I just said. Music still gets about 60% of all ad investment...Even though the audience...is...much, much bigger on podcasts.” — Ethan (08:43)

“The numbers like what I just said haven't really seeped into the subconsciousness of the people making these decisions.” — Ethan (11:12)

AVOD Surpasses 200 Million Viewers, Fueled by FAST

Oscar’s Technical Breakdown (13:24–21:26)

• "More of that ad-supported viewing is happening online...more Americans than watch regular linear TV." (14:41)
• 2026: Over 200 million Americans will view AVOD at least monthly — about 2 in 3 online users.
• FAST growth: Tubi, Pluto TV, and Roku Channel are primary platforms.
  • "Tubi...almost 92 million people using [it]..." (16:04)
  • Pluto TV "almost 69 million," Roku Channel "almost 96 million." (16:31)
• 75% of OTT video viewers are now watching ads ("ad-supported"). That share continues to grow. (14:35)
• Drivers:
  • Subscription fatigue and inflation make expensive ad-free streaming unattractive.
  • Marketers should "think about allocating ... more of their media mix into the FAST channel pie." (15:33)
  • FAST blends on-demand with lean-back, TV-like viewing, including channels dedicated to specific shows or genres.
• YouTube, Amazon Prime (which now forces ads unless you pay extra), and Hulu are AVOD’s largest players, but new growth stems from FAST.

"The free ad supported streaming TV platforms are where the growth is." — Ethan (17:44)

“Marketers need to pay attention to that.” — Oscar (23:02)

• Economic Pressures: Both Oscar and Ethan estimate that inflation and budget concerns are at least half the reason for this shift (20:03–21:15).

3. Show-Stopping Arguments (21:53–23:05)

Ethan (Podcasts)

“What are we doing right now? ...This is a podcast. You telling me that I gotta argue in favor that people would rather advertise here with us than with Taylor Swift or Bruno Mars? I think that goes without saying.” (21:53)

Oscar (AVOD/FAST)

• Video viewing time has soared from 4 hours/day (2010) to nearly 7 hours.

“...More time...with digital media is video, and more of it is ad supported. Marketers need to pay attention to that.” (22:22–23:05)

4. Memorable Moments & Notable Quotes

• Ethan’s Surprising Stat: “80% of the total number of people that are going to hear ads at all on digital audio are going to hear ads via podcasts...” (08:25)
• Oscar on FAST Growth: “To put that in context, that’s about two and three online users. It’s 10 million more Americans than watch regular linear TV ...” (14:41)
• On Viewing Habits: “Everybody got rid of their cable and then all of a sudden they’re paralyzed with indecision when they turn on Netflix... whereas...on a Roku channel...you can just sort of flip around and just leave it on and not worry about it.” — Ethan (20:51)
• Inflation’s Role: “At the crux of everything we talk about is the economic pressures and, you know, just budgeting.” — Oscar (20:26)
• Host Marcus crowns the winner: “Anyone who thinks this podcast is biased is right because it is. Podcast wins. Podcast wins.” (23:32)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• 03:17 – Introductions to the two trends
• 07:09 – Ethan’s technical breakdown: Podcast audiences and ad accessibility
• 13:24 – Oscar’s technical breakdown: AVOD/FAST user numbers, context
• 16:04 – Big FAST players: Tubi, Pluto TV, Roku
• 17:44 – Ethan: AVOD growth and economic pressures
• 21:53 – Show-stopping closing arguments
• 23:32 – Host chooses podcasting as the winner

Conclusion

This episode highlights the seismic shifts in digital audio and streaming video marketing for 2026. Podcasts, once a niche, are now a powerhouse for ad reach—despite marketers lagging behind in investment due to ecosystem inertia and limited programmatic options. Meanwhile, FAST channels are rapidly making AVOD the new default for “TV time,” thanks to affordability, lean-back convenience, bundling of on-demand and linear programming, and mounting economic pressure on households.

For marketers, the key takeaways:

• Podcasts now constitute the majority of reachable digital audio ad inventory—investment is overdue to catch up with reality.
• FAST is the fastest-growing section of streaming, poised to unseat both traditional TV and SVOD as consumers seek free, ad-supported, and convenient experiences.

For the full report and more under-the-radar 2026 forecasting trends, visit eMarketer.com.