Behind the Numbers: Social Media Trends for 2026

Episode: "The Great BTN Bake (Take) Off — Social Media Trends for 2026: Laws Reshape Kids’ Social Use and Brands Use Creators for GEO"
Date: January 12, 2026
Host: Marcus
Guests: Minda Smiley (Senior Analyst), Max Willans (Principal Analyst)

Overview

This engaging episode adopts a fun "Bake Off" format to pit two expert predictions against each other, both focused on key social media trends for 2026.

• Minda Smiley forecasts a fundamental shift in kids' use of social media, driven by new laws, regulations, and cultural changes.
• Max Willans predicts that brands will harness creators to figure out Generative Engine Optimization (GEO)—adapting to generative AI chatbots as pivotal information channels for consumers.

Three "rounds" structure the conversation:

1. Signature Take (What’s Happening?)
2. How it Will Technically Play Out
3. Show-Stopping Argument (Why This Trend Matters Most)

Key Discussion Points & Insights

Round 1: Signature Take

Kids’ Social Media Use Will Fundamentally Shift (Minda Smiley):

• For years, concerns about online safety for kids seemed to result in minor tweaks or "smoke and mirrors," but 2026 marks a tipping point.
• Specific and tangible changes—legal, legislative, and cultural—are converging to reshape kids’ relationship with social platforms.

“I do think we are hitting a tipping point of sorts, I guess you could say this year, because we're just finally seeing some real tangible changes.”
— Minda Smiley [03:53]

Brands, Creators, and Generative Engine Optimization (Max Willans):

• Brands want to appear favorably in the responses of AI chatbots (e.g. ChatGPT, Google Gemini).
• GEO means optimizing not for traditional search, but for generative AI responses, and creator content is uniquely effective in this environment.

“Generative engine optimization is broadly the practice of optimizing your content and advertising strategy so that… your brand and product appear favorably in the results and conversational replies of LLM chatbots.”
— Max Willans [05:17]

Round 2: How Will This Trend Play Out Technically?

School & National Cell Phone and Social Media Bans:

• US: Most states now have full or partial "bell-to-bell" cell phone bans in schools; bipartisan support drives rapid adoption.
• Australia: Social media ban for under-16s (implemented Dec 2025) is precedent-setting, inspiring similar measures in Europe (Denmark, France, Norway) and discussion in the US.
• Litigation is looming for US social platforms over mental health effects on minors.
• Cultural changes: Both adults and children are increasingly conscious of minimizing screen/social media time.

“This is really one of the few bipartisan issues we have left in this country...that’s probably why we've seen these bans really pick up steam pretty quickly.”
— Minda Smiley [08:27]

Impact & Implementation Details:

• Australian law: Under-16s can’t create new accounts; existing profiles deactivated; enforcement targets platforms, not users.
• Broader effect: Watching for global ripple effects, ongoing debates about definitions (what counts as social media?), privacy, and circumvention.
• Critics note both positive and negative social media impacts, grey areas, and possible workaround behaviors (e.g. moving to video games).

“It’s a really messy space to try to regulate...it sort of feels like we're building the plane as we fly it situation.”
— Minda Smiley [13:43]

GEO & Creators: Programmatic Scale and Authenticity Tensions

• AI chatbots surface social/creator content heavily (e.g. Reddit found in 40% of ChatGPT responses).
• GEO demands far greater content variety than SEO—brands must seed the web with nuanced, contextual creator input for myriad scenarios (e.g. “best hiking boots…in mud,” “in desert,” “in different colors”).
• Brands will scale up creator partnerships with AI-enhanced matchmaking tools, seeking both authenticity and coverage. Possible risks around credibility and over-automation.

“There needs to be a kind of a stair step up in the level of, you know, volume of associations...you need a significantly more scaled approach to generating this kind of content.”
— Max Willans [18:09]

Round 3: Show-Stopping Arguments

Minda (Kids & Social):

• Multiple forces—legislation, litigation, parent/teacher and cultural pressure—are coalescing toward real, noticeable change.
• Remaining uncertainties: Kids may seek other platforms or venues (e.g., gaming worlds like Roblox, Fortnite), so “whack-a-mole” issues will persist.

“None of this is happening in a vacuum…there’s just all these factors at play that I really think are contributing to a tipping point...”
— Minda Smiley [22:13]

Max (Brands & GEO):

• Brands already nurture creator relationships across funnel stages; GEO will become central as LLM chatbot use expands.
• Referral traffic from AI chatbots often lands users on creator-centric platforms (e.g., YouTube), reinforcing the loop.

“It’s going to be really important for brands to think more about, you know, how creators are knotted up in the new kind of consumer journey that's beginning to emerge as LLM...continues to grow.” — Max Willans [26:00]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Max, on adapting content for GEO:
  “I think we're going to see a lot of messiness as brands calibrate between the kind of scale needs that they have...and the kind of authenticity question that is one of the main reasons why creator content is so alluring and effective in the first place.”
  [19:10]

• Minda, on regulatory complexity:
  “...it’s a really messy space to try to regulate. You know, kids are obviously going to be able to work around some of this stuff...”
  [13:43]

• Marcus, on the scale of change:
  "The common line has been the world is watching. And I think that's a very fair statement."
  [14:42]

• Minda, on the future:
  “I do think when we look back one day, like 2026 will kind of be like a pivotal year...”
  [11:28]

Timestamps for Key Segments

• [02:56] — Minda’s prediction: fundamental shift in kids’ social media use
• [03:18] — Max’s prediction: brands use creators for GEO
• [07:36] — Minda details cell phone/social bans & impact
• [09:39] — Australian under-16 social ban: mechanics and global ripple effect
• [15:47] — Max details brands/creators/GEO technicalities
• [19:38] — Effects on creators, AI-assisted matchmaking, risks
• [22:13] — Minda’s final pitch: all forces point toward a tipping point in kids’ usage
• [24:36] — Max’s final pitch: creators are foundational in the AI-centric consumer discovery journey
• [27:12] — Winner announced (Minda), closing remarks

Tone & Style

The conversation is lively and insightful with a dash of humor, but underpinned by analytical rigor and up-to-date trend data. The friendly "bake-off" competition format keeps things engaging and accessible while delivering serious, actionable insights for marketers, advertisers, and regulators.

Takeaways for Marketers & Industry Observers

• Prepare for significant shifts in youth social media engagement and stricter compliance landscapes.
• Explore and invest in creator content—not just for traditional channels, but to influence AI-driven discovery and the future of digital search.
• Understand that rapid change will create new opportunities—and new complications—in how brands reach and shape the next generation of consumers.

Winner: Minda Smiley for her prediction about regulatory and cultural shifts reshaping kids’ social media use in 2026—deemed the more immediate and impactful trend by the judges.