Behind the Numbers: an EMARKETER Podcast

Episode: The Great BTN Bake (Take) Off — Top Trends for 2026: Micro-Dramas Break Out and Online Consumer Trust Tanks
Date: December 12, 2025
Host: Marcus Johnson
Guests:

• Max Willens (Principal Analyst, Social Media & Creator Economy)
• Jacob Bourne (AI and Technology Analyst)

Episode Overview

The episode takes an inventive "Great British Bake Off"–inspired approach to predicting the top digital media and marketing trends for 2026. Analyst Max Willens presents the case for a microdrama content boom and elevation of a new class of creators, while Jacob Bourne forecasts that AI-generated content will erode online consumer trust at an unprecedented scale. The conversation moves through three rounds: introduction of predictions, technical explanation of how trends will play out, and show-stopping closing arguments. Throughout, the hosts provide data, context, and lively debate on how these trends could influence brands, platforms, marketers, and everyday online behaviors.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Signature Take: The Trend Predictions

[03:32]

Max Willens: The Microdrama Craze

• Prediction: "The microdrama craze will mint an entirely new generation of star creators in the United States."
• Definition: Serialized, short-form scripted entertainment (60–90min total story, broken into 1–3-minute vertical episodes) designed for mobile/social consumption.
• Social platforms' time spent may have peaked in 2025, and with flatlining/declining user growth, networks will double down on what's extremely engaging—microdramas.
• Quote: "It's a kind of perfect storm that has formed in the media and entertainment space..." [04:28, Max]

Jacob Bourne: AI Content Takeover & Trust Crisis

• Prediction: “The takeover of AI-generated content on the internet is going to really shake the foundations of trust in digital content altogether."
• Over 50% of written articles online now AI–generated (Graphite study).
• AI can now create not only articles, but also images, audio, and video that are often indistinguishable from human-made content, causing concerns about authenticity and misinformation.
• Brands like Heineken, Polaroid, Cadbury are now labeling human-made content as a premium feature.
• Quote: "If a human hasn't bothered to write it, why should I bother to read it?” [10:18, Marcus, citing another source]
• “There's a deeper human value here of valuing things that a person has put effort into..." [11:30, Jacob]

2. How Will These Trends Play Out?

Max: Microdramas in 2026

[12:58]

• Social platforms (TikTok, Instagram, YouTube) are already priming users to watch scripted clips; 70% of TikTok users, 60% Instagram users, 55% YouTube users watch TV/film clips weekly.
• Microdramas align social networks' and studios’ interests: snackable, high-engagement content that’s natively monetizable and can scale quickly.
• Studios can fund tens or hundreds of microdramas at the cost of a single traditional movie—a powerful incentive.
• Expansion may take place within social apps or on independent vertical video apps (e.g., ReelShort), with social platforms potentially building microdrama paywalls.
• Demographic reach may be broader than expected; trends can jump generational boundaries, as seen with the K-drama parallel.
• Netflix and other longform players might enter the space if microdramas siphon enough user attention—"If microdramas really do start to take off, [Netflix will] absolutely find a way to shoehorn them onto their app." [17:36, Max]
• Quote: "Entertainment industry and social media industry sort of being aligned around a shared set of interests... that seems as sure a thing as you could get." [28:35, Max]

Jacob: AI Content, Trust, & Regulation

[21:47]

• With U.S. midterms in 2026 and AI video generators advancing, expect more political deepfakes and controversies around misinformation.
• Early evidence: Labeled AI content can be received positively due to novelty, but when people can't tell if it's human-made, trust collapses ("Things get murkier when people don’t know or they're not sure…” [22:45, Jacob]).
• Platform responses: Pinterest, TikTok, and others now let users control the amount of AI content they see, but detection systems are fallible.
• The “race to the bottom”: Cost-cutting through automated content may undermine creativity and online quality.
• Some positive cases: Hybrid human-AI collaboration (Laser Eye Center saw a 2x performance lift in ads when humans partnered with AI; creative agencies using AI hallucinations as creative spurs).
• Human storytelling remains essential—"At the end of the day, [AI is] never going to have subjective human experience, which is what people are really wanting when they consume content." [31:45, Jacob]
• Growth ceiling: 50% of new online English articles are AI-generated, but a plateau is unlikely; backlash, demand for “premium human-made” content, and data quality issues may slow it.

3. Show-Stopping Arguments

Max: Why Microdramas Will Boom

[28:35]

• Entertainment and social platforms finally aligned: "But in microdrama, you have a thing that essentially brings both sides' interests together...premium and scripted...and also mobile, optimized, snackable—and so...as sure a thing as you could get..."
• Room for breakout creators and scalable new content models.

Jacob: Why The AI Trust Crisis Is Most Likely

[30:40]

• "There’s just a bit of a race to the bottom in terms of just churning out AI-generated content instead of what would be better..."
• Trust fatigue and consumer skepticism are destined to become dominant issues as AI-generated content continues to proliferate.
• Emotional connection and genuinely human storytelling will become a premium in the new digital content economy.

Host Marcus (Crowns Winner)

[31:45]

• Declares Jacob's trust crisis the most likely outcome, while noting Max's microdrama trend is “the most interesting because it’s so new and...so many ways to go.”

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Max: "Picture a telenovela or a soap opera made for the person in your life with the worst attention deficit disorder you can imagine." [06:02]
• Marcus: "If a human hasn't bothered to write it, why should I be bothered to read it?" [10:18]
• Jacob: "There's a deeper human value here of valuing things that a person has put effort into..." [11:30]
• Max: "There were shows that got canceled from network television in the 90s because only 25 million people were watching them every week." [34:52]
• Max: "[Netflix] absolutely [will] find a way to shoehorn [microdramas] onto their app because they have the cash, they have the subscriber base, and they have the resources to do it." [17:36]

Important Timestamps by Topic

• Microdrama trend prediction – [03:32–05:46]
• AI content trust crisis prediction – [08:45–12:25]
• How microdramas will play out – [12:58–20:42]
• How AI-content and trust will play out – [21:47–28:15]
• Battle of show-stopping arguments – [28:15–31:45]
• Quibi, China, and the blueprint for microdramas – [32:34–35:37]

Key Takeaways

• Microdramas are likely to proliferate as the entertainment and social media industries converge in their pursuit of engagement and monetization—there’s precedent in China, and powerful incentives for U.S. studios and platforms to adapt.
• AI-generated content is reaching a saturation point, rapidly fueling consumer skepticism, trust issues, and a premium on human-authored media. The arms race to detect, label, and limit AI content will intensify, but will likely not completely solve underlying trust gaps.
• Brands, platforms, and creators will need to navigate a complex landscape where “authenticity” and the “human touch” are both more valuable—and harder to prove—than ever before.

For more detailed data and extended analysis, eMarketer subscribers can access the full trends report via the link in show notes.