Behind the Numbers: What If? Google Broke Itself Up, Online Shopping Stopped Growing, and Audio Ads Exploded

Episode Release Date: June 27, 2025
Host: Marcus (EMARKETER)
Guests: Rahul Chadha (Director of Reports Editing), Max Willans (Senior Analyst, Digital Advertising and Media), Beg Drosch (Senior Analyst, Retail)

Introduction

In this episode of Behind the Numbers, hosted by Marcus, the team delves into three highly specific yet unlikely predictions for 2025. Structured in a Shark Tank-style format, each guest pitches their prediction, followed by a group discussion to determine its viability. The episode offers insightful analysis into the future of digital media, advertising, and retail.

Prediction 1: Generative AI Will Double the Digital Audio Ad Market by 2029

Pitch by Max Willans ([03:48]): Max envisions that generative AI will more than double the digital audio ad market by 2029. He draws parallels to science fiction, citing examples like Jarvis from Iron Man, to illustrate the potential of conversational AI assistants. Max highlights the increasing adoption of voice assistants, noting that "there's already about 148 million people using a voice assistant monthly in the US this year" ([03:50]). He predicts that as over half of internet users engage with voice assistants by 2027, the demand for generative AI advertising will surge, particularly in audio formats.

Discussion:

• Opportunities in Audio Ads ([06:16]): Max elaborates on how AI-driven ads can become integral to user interactions. For instance, when a user inquires about a product, AI can seamlessly integrate sponsored recommendations into the conversation, enhancing the advertising experience.

• Challenges in User Experience ([08:53]): Rahul expresses concerns about the user experience, emphasizing the need for ads to be additive rather than intrusive. He states, "the platforms have to figure out how to serve the ads at the right time and the advertisers have to figure out the right creative" ([09:30]).

• Market Adoption and Skepticism ([11:12] - [13:22]): Blake shares his reservations, referencing the slow adoption of voice shopping despite long-standing technology. However, after discussing the timeline, which Max clarifies as being set for 2029, Blake remains cautiously optimistic, acknowledging the "enormous potential" due to the time horizon for technological evolution.

Notable Quote: Max Willans ([03:48]): "Generative AI will help more than double the size of the digital audio ad market by 2029."

Outcome:
Max's prediction earns 3 points, reflecting the group's belief in its plausibility given the technological advancements and the extended timeline.

Prediction 2: Google Will Preemptively Break Itself Up Due to Antitrust Pressures

Pitch by Rahul Chadha ([13:37]): Rahul predicts that Google will preemptively dismantle its conglomerate structure in response to ongoing antitrust cases in the US Department of Justice. He argues that Google's diverse portfolio—ranging from Chrome and YouTube to Waymo—would be more valuable if separated, potentially valuing the individual segments at over $3.7 trillion, as per analyst Gil Luria ([13:37]).

Discussion:

• Market Impact and Google's Strategy ([15:43] - [19:33]): Max counters Rahul's optimism by discussing Google's reliance on integrated systems like Performance Max (PMax) for ad distribution. He fears that breaking up would diminish Google's advertising efficiency, making it harder to compete with giants like Amazon and Meta.

• Google's Resistance to Structural Remedies ([18:20]): Rahul acknowledges Google's preference for behavioral over structural remedies but remains speculative about the company's willingness to undertake a preemptive breakup.

• Long-Term Viability ([19:33] - [20:39]): Blake agrees with Max, emphasizing that Google's integrated services are crucial for its competitive edge. He doubts Google's willingness to relinquish critical components necessary for maintaining its dominance in the ad network space.

• Final Stand on Prediction: The group remains unconvinced about the likelihood of Google's breakup, citing the complexities and potential negative impacts on its advertising ecosystem.

Notable Quote: Rahul Chadha ([13:37]): "My prediction is that Google will preemptively break itself up."

Outcome:
Rahul's prediction receives 0 points, as the panel remains skeptical about the feasibility and strategic wisdom of Google dismantling its own empire.

Prediction 3: US E-Commerce Sales Will Stall in 2025

Pitch by Blake ([21:30]): Blake forecasts that US e-commerce sales will remain flat in 2025, revising previous growth estimates from 8% to a mere 5%, with potential to drop to 0%. He attributes this stagnation to factors such as tariffs, inflation, declining consumer confidence, and plateauing growth in key categories like apparel, electronics, and home furnishings ([21:30]).

Discussion:

• Economic Indicators ([24:45] - [25:46]): Marcus references the University of Michigan's consumer confidence index, which hit a record low of 52 points in April, exacerbating fears of stagnation. Blake underscores the precariousness of upcoming holiday seasons, critical for e-commerce, amidst economic uncertainties.

• Broader Economic Impacts ([26:26] - [28:15]): Max and Rahul discuss how macroeconomic factors, including energy prices and geopolitical tensions, could further dampen consumer spending. Rahul emphasizes that "uncertainty in the Middle East with potential conflict could easily make energy prices go up," impacting discretionary spending ([27:09]).

• Anecdotal Evidence ([28:15] - [29:57]): Marcus shares a story from the Journal about a consumer canceling a vacation due to market volatility triggered by tariffs, illustrating the direct impact of economic instability on consumer behavior.

Notable Quote: Blake ([21:30]): "My unlikely prediction is that US E-commerce sales are going to fall flat in 2025."

Outcome:
Blake's prediction is awarded 2.5 points, reflecting partial agreement from the panel. While acknowledging the factors leading to potential stagnation, some members remain hopeful for minimal growth rather than a complete halt.

Conclusion

The episode wraps up with the hosts summarizing the points awarded for each prediction:

• Max's Prediction: Doubling of the digital audio ad market via generative AI receives 3 points, indicating strong belief in its likelihood by 2025.

• Blake's Prediction: Flatlining of US e-commerce sales scores 2.5 points, suggesting cautious agreement amidst economic uncertainties.

• Rahul's Prediction: Google's preemptive breakup garners 0 points, highlighting skepticism regarding its practicality and strategic merits.

Final Remarks: Marcus thanks the guests and listeners, encouraging subscriptions and reviews. The episode underscores the dynamic and unpredictable nature of digital media landscapes, emphasizing the importance of staying informed through Behind the Numbers.

Notable Closing Quote: Max Willans ([13:22]): "It's the future, baby."

Stay tuned for more insights and analysis on the rapidly evolving world of digital media with eMarketer's Behind the Numbers podcast, available Monday through Friday on your favorite platforms.