What If? Google Broke Itself Up, Online Shopping Stopped Growing, and Audio Ads Exploded | Behind the Numbers

Summary

Behind the Numbers: What If? Google Broke Itself Up, Online Shopping Stopped Growing, and Audio Ads Exploded

Episode Release Date: June 27, 2025
Host: Marcus (EMARKETER)
Guests: Rahul Chadha (Director of Reports Editing), Max Willans (Senior Analyst, Digital Advertising and Media), Beg Drosch (Senior Analyst, Retail)

---

Introduction

In this episode of Behind the Numbers, hosted by Marcus, the team delves into three highly specific yet unlikely predictions for 2025. Structured in a Shark Tank-style format, each guest pitches their prediction, followed by a group discussion to determine its viability. The episode offers insightful analysis into the future of digital media, advertising, and retail.

---

Prediction 1: Generative AI Will Double the Digital Audio Ad Market by 2029

Pitch by Max Willans ([03:48]): Max envisions that generative AI will more than double the digital audio ad market by 2029. He draws parallels to science fiction, citing examples like Jarvis from Iron Man, to illustrate the potential of conversational AI assistants. Max highlights the increasing adoption of voice assistants, noting that "there's already about 148 million people using a voice assistant monthly in the US this year" ([03:50]). He predicts that as over half of internet users engage with voice assistants by 2027, the demand for generative AI advertising will surge, particularly in audio formats.

Discussion:

• Opportunities in Audio Ads ([06:16]): Max elaborates on how AI-driven ads can become integral to user interactions. For instance, when a user inquires about a product, AI can seamlessly integrate sponsored recommendations into the conversation, enhancing the advertising experience.

• Challenges in User Experience ([08:53]): Rahul expresses concerns about the user experience, emphasizing the need for ads to be additive rather than intrusive. He states, "the platforms have to figure out how to serve the ads at the right time and the advertisers have to figure out the right creative" ([09:30]).

• Market Adoption and Skepticism ([11:12] - [13:22]): Blake shares his reservations, referencing the slow adoption of voice shopping despite long-standing technology. However, after discussing the timeline, which Max clarifies as being set for 2029, Blake remains cautiously optimistic, acknowledging the "enormous potential" due to the time horizon for technological evolution.

Notable Quote: Max Willans ([03:48]): "Generative AI will help more than double the size of the digital audio ad market by 2029."

Outcome:
Max's prediction earns 3 points, reflecting the group's belief in its plausibility given the technological advancements and the extended timeline.

---

Prediction 2: Google Will Preemptively Break Itself Up Due to Antitrust Pressures

Pitch by Rahul Chadha ([13:37]): Rahul predicts that Google will preemptively dismantle its conglomerate structure in response to ongoing antitrust cases in the US Department of Justice. He argues that Google's diverse portfolio—ranging from Chrome and YouTube to Waymo—would be more valuable if separated, potentially valuing the individual segments at over $3.7 trillion, as per analyst Gil Luria ([13:37]).

Discussion:

• Market Impact and Google's Strategy ([15:43] - [19:33]): Max counters Rahul's optimism by discussing Google's reliance on integrated systems like Performance Max (PMax) for ad distribution. He fears that breaking up would diminish Google's advertising efficiency, making it harder to compete with giants like Amazon and Meta.

• Google's Resistance to Structural Remedies ([18:20]): Rahul acknowledges Google's preference for behavioral over structural remedies but remains speculative about the company's willingness to undertake a preemptive breakup.

• Long-Term Viability ([19:33] - [20:39]): Blake agrees with Max, emphasizing that Google's integrated services are crucial for its competitive edge. He doubts Google's willingness to relinquish critical components necessary for maintaining its dominance in the ad network space.

• Final Stand on Prediction: The group remains unconvinced about the likelihood of Google's breakup, citing the complexities and potential negative impacts on its advertising ecosystem.

Notable Quote: Rahul Chadha ([13:37]): "My prediction is that Google will preemptively break itself up."

Outcome:
Rahul's prediction receives 0 points, as the panel remains skeptical about the feasibility and strategic wisdom of Google dismantling its own empire.

---

Prediction 3: US E-Commerce Sales Will Stall in 2025

Pitch by Blake ([21:30]): Blake forecasts that US e-commerce sales will remain flat in 2025, revising previous growth estimates from 8% to a mere 5%, with potential to drop to 0%. He attributes this stagnation to factors such as tariffs, inflation, declining consumer confidence, and plateauing growth in key categories like apparel, electronics, and home furnishings ([21:30]).

Discussion:

• Economic Indicators ([24:45] - [25:46]): Marcus references the University of Michigan's consumer confidence index, which hit a record low of 52 points in April, exacerbating fears of stagnation. Blake underscores the precariousness of upcoming holiday seasons, critical for e-commerce, amidst economic uncertainties.

• Broader Economic Impacts ([26:26] - [28:15]): Max and Rahul discuss how macroeconomic factors, including energy prices and geopolitical tensions, could further dampen consumer spending. Rahul emphasizes that "uncertainty in the Middle East with potential conflict could easily make energy prices go up," impacting discretionary spending ([27:09]).

• Anecdotal Evidence ([28:15] - [29:57]): Marcus shares a story from the Journal about a consumer canceling a vacation due to market volatility triggered by tariffs, illustrating the direct impact of economic instability on consumer behavior.

Notable Quote: Blake ([21:30]): "My unlikely prediction is that US E-commerce sales are going to fall flat in 2025."

Outcome:
Blake's prediction is awarded 2.5 points, reflecting partial agreement from the panel. While acknowledging the factors leading to potential stagnation, some members remain hopeful for minimal growth rather than a complete halt.

---

Conclusion

The episode wraps up with the hosts summarizing the points awarded for each prediction:

• Max's Prediction: Doubling of the digital audio ad market via generative AI receives 3 points, indicating strong belief in its likelihood by 2025.

• Blake's Prediction: Flatlining of US e-commerce sales scores 2.5 points, suggesting cautious agreement amidst economic uncertainties.

• Rahul's Prediction: Google's preemptive breakup garners 0 points, highlighting skepticism regarding its practicality and strategic merits.

Final Remarks: Marcus thanks the guests and listeners, encouraging subscriptions and reviews. The episode underscores the dynamic and unpredictable nature of digital media landscapes, emphasizing the importance of staying informed through Behind the Numbers.

Notable Closing Quote: Max Willans ([13:22]): "It's the future, baby."

---

Stay tuned for more insights and analysis on the rapidly evolving world of digital media with eMarketer's Behind the Numbers podcast, available Monday through Friday on your favorite platforms.

Transcript

[Marcus]

Are your brand campaigns as effective as they could be? No, Marcus, they're not. If you're only getting insights when the campaign is over, then the answer is no. To make better campaign decisions, you need real time measurement. You need lucid measurement by sint. That's what you need. Discover the power of real time brand lift [e-mail] insights that's spelt cint.com.

[Blake]

And.

[Marcus]

Get yourself a demo today. Hey gang. It's Friday, June 27th. Rahul, Max, Blake and listeners, welcome to behind the Numbers new market video podcast made possible by synt. I'm Marcus. Today I'm joined by three people. Let's meet them. We start with our director of reports editing, living in Maryland, I think, Rahul Chadha.

[Rahul Chadha]

Hey, Marcus, thanks for having me.

[Marcus]

Is that right?

[Rahul Chadha]

That is correct.

[Marcus]

It's not that much of an accomplishment. You've been there for a long time. Senior analyst covering digital advertising and media, living in Philly, Max Willans.

[Max Willans]

Yo.

[Marcus]

Hello, fella. And finally, we have one of our senior analysts covering retail living in New York, Beg Drosch. Good to be here.

[Blake]

Going up the eastern seaboard today.

[Marcus]

Hello, sir. Indeed. We're keeping it local with these three fellas and they're joining us for today's episode. We start with the fact of the day, though, of course. Where does the word doctor come from? Okay, so Dr. Comes from the Latin docere, which means to teach. In medieval universities, it was a title for elite scholars, especially in theology. And for centuries, medicine was seen more as a craft than an academic discipline, closer to being that of a barber than someone who learned from books. According to the University of Cambridge, as medicine evolved from folk remedies to evidence based science, doctors fought for respect in the academic world. And. And the Doctor of Medicine title helped with credibility and respect. That's a note from Johns Hopkins School of medicine. And a PhD is focused on creating new knowledge. PhD stands for Doctor of Philosophy. And PhD is an abbreviation of the Latin term philosophii, which is the ph. The philosophii ph and then D is the doctor and MD is trained to apply that knowledge in high stakes clinical settings. Notes the Stanford Medicine Education Resources. So it just means to teach doctor. I'm not. I don't. I feel like I've reduced it to just. It just means to teach. It's not that big of a deal. It's still impressive. Anyway, today's real topic, very specific but highly unlikely predictions for 2025. Shark tank style. Round two. Okay, here's how this episode works. Each person, Max first will have 60 seconds to pitch a very specific but highly unlikely prediction for 2025. And then the rest of us, me, Rahul, Blake, and everyone listening will decide if we're going to invest in it. Slash, believe it. We have three predictions from Paul, Susie and Yuri on Monday's episode. We have three more for you right now. Max, go.

[Max Willans]

Wow, Just jumping right in, huh? All right, so my prediction is that generative AI will help more than double the size of the digital audio ad market by 2029. And I am basing this on something that, on a vision of AI that I think a lot of people have had thanks to science fiction and movies, which is of a conversational assistant who can help you with lots of different tasks. This is one of the more famous examples is Jarvis, who helps Tony Stark in Iron Man. What you see is all of the tech giants that are sort of leading the charge into AI, they are pushing to make this a reality. Google has started beta testing an ability to engage with gen AI in a conversational format. Amazon is clearly pushing hard to move in this direction by revamping Alexa. Apple, when it ever gets its act together, will have something similar in place with Siri and AI generally. And so this basically puts together a perfect storm of conditions to grow an ad market really, really quickly. There's already about 148 million people using an audio assistant, rather, excuse me, a voice assistant, at least monthly in the US this year, that's 27% higher than the number of people that use Gen AI. It's nearly 40% higher than the number of people that use Spotify. And by 2027, more than half of all Internet users are going to use one. So that takes care of the scale problem. And then the other piece of this is just going to be demand for generative AI advertising. We think in search, for example, that by 2029, I guess it is there will be the gen AI search ad market will be over 26 billion, up from barely 1 billion this year. And so some of that money, I think will wind up going into audio format. Some of that will be audio native. As advertisers and platforms wrap their minds around the opportunities inherent in voice first ads created by gen AI. So that's, that's my story, that's my pitch.

[Marcus]

What are some of those opportunities, do you think? What's going to emerge from, from this space?

[Max Willans]

Well, I think a lot of it will be oriented around, you know, kind of pushing the conversation forward or offering up, you know, sponsored results. So, you know, if you go and ask, you know, your Alexo, what kind of camping stove I should be buying to go on this camping trip that I'm going on next month, Alexa will say, I found a lot of results. This one from Coleman is on sale right now and it has 600,000 five star reviews. Should I add that to your cart? That's, that's an audio ad and I think that that's kind of the, the very obvious kind of fattest, lowest hanging fruit. But I think that there's all kinds of possibilities there as people start to sort of examine the space more carefully.

[Marcus]

And do you think it's going to be that the first one or two are going to be ads? It's going to be kind of like with Google search results where it started off with just one and now a lot of times you have to scroll down through 10 different results to get to the organic ones. Do you think that eventually it will become, you know, results? The first thing that they Reply to you 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th will be just however advertise, advertisers have bid for those results and then it becomes organic. How do you think that will play out?

[Max Willans]

I have a feeling that it'll be kind of a one sponsored component per reply because nobody is going to, you know, as you say, sort of sit there politely while Alexis says there is also a 25% off one on, you know, like nobody is going to talk tolerate that. And so that, that is going to be, I think that's going to keep the market from, you know, tripling say. But the other idea here is, and this is something that you already are seeing in the, the kind of, you know, nascent ad strategies of things like perplexity, where what they want the advertising to fit into is kind of a conversation that continues. You don't want to sort of ask a question and then get an ad back as your reply. You want to, you know, have the conversation deepen and as you get two, three, four volleys in some ads become part of it and hopefully the ads themselves spur still more volleys, still more ads, et cetera, et cetera. So that's interesting. Yeah, that's how I expect it.

[Marcus]

When to deliver it. Yeah, not the first response. Second, third, maybe the fourth. Rahul, what do you think about this one?

[Rahul Chadha]

I mean, the first thing I thought of was the challenges that smart speakers faced serving audio ads to users. And that was kind of like a new like advertising channel. I think, I think the biggest challenge honestly is going to be the user experience. You know, the the platforms have to get figuring out how to serve the ads at the right time and the advertisers have to figure out the right creative basically to make it an additive experience for a user and not something that's like, you know, Max already mentioned, just have like, you know, an AI agent reading a list of ads out loud to, to a user. I think that's going to be the trickiest part, honestly.

[Blake]

What I keep going back to is basically is what Rahul was saying about just sort of how Amazon has really been pushing out audio voice shopping for so long and it still hasn't really caught on. And the technology for basically placing a very straightforward order has been around for a while and that hasn't really ramped up. And I think it's going to be, it's, it's hard for me to sort of gamble on the 2.0 being successful because we haven't really seen that natural progression play out. On the ad spending side, I think I could, I completely agree with Max though. Like advertisers are going to be really quick to throw money at this. If it's one of the big components that the AI platform start rolling out. I think they're all really ready to, you know, advertisers are ready to jump in head first to this AI stuff. If it's something that, you know, perplexity or, or Google or Amazon really starts rolling out to advertisers, I think the money is gonna definitely gonna flow into that situation. But I think it all really comes back to, you know, what is the real percentage of voice shopping that's going to take place because of advancements in AI versus how much of, let's say Amazon's E commerce sales are still going to come from screen shopping. Right. I think as long as that continues to be the predominant method that, you know, an Amazon search ad is always going to be way more impactful than a, than a voice ad.

[Max Willans]

Can I push back against these myopic and small minded quibbles with my proposal?

[Rahul Chadha]

Max is really invested in this idea.

[Max Willans]

I bet my house. Okay, I, I think, I think that those, those points are fair. If we, if we were operating under the presumption that audio, that the audio experience would remain what Alexa is, what I think most of us on this call remember, Right. Which is this kind of stilted, not terribly responsive, you know, buggy thing, then I would agree with you that there's probably not a lot of there there. But I look at the, the rate of adoption of Gemini as a shopping assistant and I, I will, you know, see the fact that, you know, in a. With visuals you can do a little bit more. But I do think that there is a level of kind of dynamism and a convincing quality to what gen AI is capable that just was not part of the experience with Alexa at all. And so I think that once people get used to the idea that like oh, Alexa really gets me or you know, ChatGPT enabled his voice on this new, you know, Johnny I've built device actually understands me. I think that we could see a kind of stair step in the amount of that people are using this technology for that purpose.

[Marcus]

I'm in. Rahul.

[Rahul Chadha]

Yeah, why not?

[Marcus]

He's all in. You can be half.

[Rahul Chadha]

I feel like I'm playing with house money. So you know, that's right.

[Marcus]

That's true.

[Max Willans]

It's the future, baby.

[Marcus]

Ruins the game if you think like that, Rahul. But sure, why not? Just to make believe. Blake, how about you?

[Blake]

Wait, Max, one clarifying question. When is this prediction gonna come into fruition?

[Max Willans]

Oh, 2029.

[Blake]

2029. That. That changes things for me. I. You guys didn't even ask about. We're talking about.

[Marcus]

He said in the beginning.

[Blake]

Four years.

[Marcus]

Unbelievable.

[Max Willans]

Four years definitely is.

[Blake]

All right, I guess I'm, I guess I'm in. It's enough time for things to radically evolve, which is what this depends on.

[Marcus]

All right, three. Three points for Max's. Rahul, what do you have for us? What prediction do you have?

[Rahul Chadha]

My highly unlikely prediction I want to underscore that is that Google, Google will preemptively break itself up if folks don't know. Google basically lost two antitrust cases that were brought against it by the US Department of Justice. One focused on its, basically its search offering and one based on its ad tech offerings. And they're in the midst right now in the courts of hashing out what exactly the remedies will be, meaning what are the fixes that the court system, the justice system are going to force Google to implement, to become in compliance with antitrust law. So my prediction is that Google will preemptively break itself up. Now, the arguments in favor of this are that when you look at Google as a whole, it's basically a collection of completely disparate services. You've got the most popular browser in the world in Chrome, YouTube, which is a video distribution platform, cloud computing services, and outliers like the likes of Waymo, which is a self driving taxi service. So you really have to wonder what's the value in having all these Companies with different business models, different goals, all under the same umbrella. And wouldn't it be better to break them out, generate a lot of return and shareholder value? By one analyst it was. Gil Luria, an analyst at D.A. davidson & Co. In May said that Google's separate parts could be worth more than $3.7 trillion. So it was roughly double its valuation at that time. And so wouldn't be better to generate more efficiencies that way.

[Marcus]

Stock price down, was it like 9, 10, 9, 10% this year for Google? Things not going well, these decisions made. And so it does, it does seem like they're heading in that direction. This does seem like the kind of ultimate power move, like I'll break you up with you before you break up with me. Max, what do you think?

[Max Willans]

I definitely understand that I'm sympathetic to, I remember Gil Laurier, you said, yeah, I mean, I definitely think that, you know, separately they would, several components would, would fetch, you know, pretty handsome sums. But I'm out and we didn't get.

[Rahul Chadha]

To that part yet.

[Marcus]

Max, that was a.

[Max Willans]

Well, I just so hyped. No, let me, let me explain why. So the big reason is pmax, right? So like over the last, I guess it's two years, we could quibble about time frame. Google has been setting up this, you know, highly automated ad placement system where it basically takes the advertisers, ads and it's, and it pipes them everywhere. It puts them in search results, it puts them in YouTube, it puts them in its display network. And the amount of money that advertisers have been pouring into pmax keeps going up and up and up. If you cut one of these pieces off, particularly the ones that are sort of under threat because of the lawsuits that you mentioned, that breaks one distribution point that's, that's going to be quite valuable. And especially as they tilt more and more in the direction of trying to, you know, assert their position in shopping, that becomes even more dangerous. Right? So all of a sudden if, you know, you're looking for, you know, a pair of, of sneakers, if you can, as an advertiser, if you can catch somebody on search on YouTube, on, you know, almost any website on the Internet, that's pretty powerful. If, if buying that only gets you into search and YouTube, it's still good, it's just not as good. And the sort of, you know, efficiency of that AI system starts to suffer. And I, I think that they, Google is not going to be, would rather cut off or pay some hefty penalties or, or potentially lose some of its dominance and search rather than break itself up. So for that reason, I'm out.

[Marcus]

Yeah, I'm wondering if the preemptively is more beneficial so because if you do it ahead of time, then you can kind of dictate to a certain extent what you're doing as opposed to here's the punishment. And so now you have to do what you're being told. However, there is a danger. I don't know, Rahul, do you think that maybe is a danger that Google breaks itself up more than the DOJ would have requested?

[Rahul Chadha]

Yeah, absolutely. I mean, harking back to the highly unlikely part, but part of this, you know, I think you mentioned, you know, companies tend to self regulate because they're trying to stave off regulation by the government. So they want to probably hit what they consider to be a like less onerous threshold of regulation for themselves before the government gets involved. Google is opposed to this. You know, it's published several blog posts arguing against the, the proposed remedies. The DOJ has proposed remedies for both of these cases and Google's arguing in favor of what they describe as behavioral remedies instead of structural remedies and structure, the latter being basically divesting or selling off pieces of its empire like Chrome or its mobile os, Android aspects of its ad tech system like adx. So it doesn't want to do that. It wants to implement the behavioral remedies for sure.

[Max Willans]

I, I do think that if, you know, their lawyer, if their legal team got the impression that, that a, a divestiture or a, you know, a breakup was going to be forced upon them, that they, they might, you know, try to decide, you know, what angle they, they throw themselves in front of that. So that's, that's definitely worth positing, but I'm sorry, Blake, go ahead.

[Blake]

No, I think that's a, that's a really good point. I, I think, you know, they are willing to continue to play chicken with the DOJ basically as long as it is is going to take. And I think, you know, they could still have a fair degree of confidence just because of how, how difficult it is to actually force a breakup through that they will be able to withstand it. But I completely agree with Max's point. I mean, anything that's going to threaten the, its ability to compete as an ad network, any, it wouldn't be, it's not really going to be willing to give any of those pieces away. And I think they're all, you know, pretty crucial when you think About Google being able to compete with Amazon and Meta in the long term, having media, having sort of a tried and true, you know, search ad platform, having a, you know, large customer base across all or user base across these channels. These are all things that Google really needs in order to stay competitive with the other ad giants.

[Rahul Chadha]

Yeah, and I think, Sorry, I'm arguing against my own case now, but, you know, I think just looking at this shift to AI, it's like when you're mentioning, you know, who are the people Google, Google keeps company with, like you need deep pockets is the bottom line. And if Google were to break itself up, it's just cutting off its access to capital that it could use to invest in new generative AI technologies. Really is. Everybody's expecting to be the next major shift in our technology in the next, whatever, five, ten years or whatever. However, whatever timeline you want to spell out, you turned. Rahul, I'm not good at this game. Clearly.

[Marcus]

I was nearly gonna give you half points.

[Rahul Chadha]

You should call this. You should call my segment chum tank.

[Marcus]

All right. Rahul got nothing because he ended up deciding his initial thought was terrible. Blake, what do you. What do you have for us?

[Blake]

So my, My unlikely prediction is that US E commerce sales are going to fall flat in 2025. And I think it's. It's a fairly simple prediction, but just to give some context, we revised our. Our forecast last month for retail E commerce sales. We're now predicting growth will come in at about. Oh, sorry, at 5% for flat this year. And that's down from, I think, our predicted 8, roughly 8% growth that we had forecasted at the beginning of the year. Obviously tariffs. The tariffs are the, you know, major reason behind why we've slowed down our forecast for growth. But it's not really the only reason that I think that this is, you know, know, potent is the case. I mean, obviously tariffs are the catalyst. However, we have and. And other outlets have been really just pulling back on our estimates for E Commerce growth, both annually and also in terms of, you know, penetration. We've, We've forecasted that, you know, we are probably three or four years out from E commerce reaching 20% of all retail sales for a very long time. And we keep sort of like moving the goalposts down the line. And what really is, is. Is the case for that is there were, you know, categories like grocery that were pushing growth forward at the beginning of the decade, and that's really started to dry up. First because of inflation, now because of, you know, more Uncertainty around tariffs and the growth going forward is, you know, seems to be sort of reaching a plateau. So sort of take that long term trend and now compound it with the fact that the three largest categories in E commerce, which are apparel, consumer electronics and home furnishings, which make up about 47% of US E commerce sales, are all expected to grow like between 2 and 3% this year there. And that is basically dependent on like if the economy and consumer confidence stays where it is now. But you know, there's a lot of crazy stuff going on in the world. A lot of, you know, reason to believe that consumer confidence is probably, is, could, could really take a steady decline which will put those discretionary categories, make them quite vulnerable going into the end of the year, particularly the holiday season. And if we see those categories go from, you know, 2, 3% growth, which are already, is already pretty low down into, you know, the, the 1 to 2% growth territory, then it really wouldn't be, you know, a far cry from really dragging down our total E Commerce number of 5% into you know, a very, very risky area of basically hitting 0% growth.

[Marcus]

Yeah, consumer confidence wise, we've, we've seen it hit record low, I think the second, second lowest on record. University of Michigan's index, 52 points. I believe that was the April reading. And so it's already low and that's before the full effect of the tariffs has really has really hit. So it's not looking good for the consumer confidence. So we had the, as Blake was saying, we've got the different scenarios here. We've got the, the limited tariff scenario which is before we made these adjustments, that was 8% growth this year. For context, last year we saw retail E commerce sales in the US growing 8%. So we thought it would grow a similar speed this year initially. Then the moderate tariff scenario takes it down from 8 to 5 and then the heavy tariff scenario that we have is closer to 1%. So Blake, you're basically saying that you think this is going to be on the extreme end of the heavy, even pass our heavy tariff scenario to, to 0%.

[Blake]

Yeah, I mean, you know, it doesn't, it doesn't have to be the worst case scenario with tariffs playing out in order for that to happen. Right. I mean it just, just could be for instance, just the uncertainty of what the tariffs will be. Right. So if that, if this continues to play out and it spooks consumers, then it doesn't matter if what the tariff scenario is. It's just if the vibes are bad, then that could really impact, you know, what people going in the stores and buying stuff, particularly around the holiday season, which, you know, is hugely is, is crucial for, for E Commerce.

[Max Willans]

Well, in the uncertainty too, is, is gumming everything up. Right. It's not just consumers. I mean, in his most recent comments, Jerome Powell basically said like, there's no cut because we don't know what the hell is going on. You know, and that, that eventually starts rolling down downhill and affects a lot of things here too. I, I appreciate you, Marcus, flagging that what Blake is predicting is even worse than what we forecast. That is the worst case scenario. I love that because my glass is half empty and I sprinkled a bunch of arsenic in it this morning. So I'm in on, on Blake's unbelievably bleak scenario.

[Blake]

I figured this is the Friday show, so let's, let's try to keep it.

[Marcus]

As dark as possible.

[Max Willans]

Bottoms up.

[Rahul Chadha]

My cynicism goes quite as far as Max has done, High bar. But I mean, yeah, I'm buying here because, you know, I think even just separating all the eloquent reasons that Blake spelled out in the, just in the E commerce sector, just when you look at the bigger picture of people in their pocketbooks, they're facing a lot of uncertainty. Grocery prices go off. You're just thinking about their core needs and what they're going to have to spend money on. It's groceries, energy, transportation, that sort of thing. And uncertainty in the Middle east with potential conflict there spreading, could easily make energy prices go up. Everybody's still bracing for what the tariffs are going to yield in terms of the costs of, of who knows what range of goods. So yeah, people are definitely going to cut back on their discretionary spending and tighten their wallets and I think across the board. And that just includes their online purchases.

[Marcus]

Yeah. There was a good anecdote in the Journal from a chap who'd booked a holiday vacation at the start of the year. And he booked it. And then Liberation Day, April 2, tariffs hit. The stock market had its biggest drop since the pandemic and also the financial crash, it wiped about 3 trillion off the books. So he managed to cancel it and get most of his money back. He think it came out to about two and a half thousand dollars that he would have been spending on his vacation. But he canceled it, got the money back and then they asked him, are you going to book it again now that the tariffs got rescinded? A lot of them got rescinded a month or so late after April 2, he said no because I don't know what to expect. And I think it's that kind of mindset of like people might have the money there, but they just don't know one day to the next. And so yeah, I think I'm half in because I don't think it's going to be zero. I think maybe, I think I'm going to go with the forecasting team and not just because I used to be on the forecasting team, but 1% growth. I think pretty anemic is a safe bet. So I'm half inch. That's two and a half points for, for Blake's prediction. Not bad. All right, so we've got everyone's all in on the audio ad market. More than doubling inside, thank the size thanks to Gen AI as Max's prediction. So 3 points for that. Blake's flat E Commerce sales in the US gets two and a half points. And Rahul, who would make a terrible lawyer start arguing against his own client in court, got no points at all for Google preemptively breaking itself up. But interesting to talk about regardless, thank you so much to my guests for hanging out with me today. Thank you. First to Rahul.

[Rahul Chadha]

Thanks for having me.

[Marcus]

Marcus, thank you to Blake. Yeah, thanks for having me. Now, of course, to Max, Always a pleasure.

[Max Willans]

Marcus, thank you.

[Marcus]

Yes, indeed. And to the whole editing crew, thank you. And to everyone listening in to behind the Numbers, the E Marketed video podcast made possible by sint. Subscribe Follow Us Leave a rating and review if you haven't other moments. We really, really appreciate that and we will see you on Monday again for behind the Numbers. Happiest of weekend.