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Behind the Numbers: an EMARKETER Podcast
What If? Sports Team Sponsorships, TikTok Shop's Ceiling, and a Creator–Retail Media Network Marriage | Behind the Numbers
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- [00:00]
A
Take your brand to new heights with inflight advertising powered by viasat ads. High engagement formats, targeted delivery and self service tracking make it all very, very, very, very, very, very simple. Reach millions of travelers across leading airlines in a premium captive environment. Join their journey with Viasat ads. Hey gang. It's Monday, December 15th. Ross, Max, Oscar and listeners, welcome to behind the Numbers newmarked video podcast made possible by viasat and ads. I'm Marcus. Joining me for today's conversation, we have living just north of New York City, senior analyst covering digital advertising and media, Ross Benish.
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B
Hey, Marcus.
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A
Hey, fella. Little further south in New York City itself, you can find a senior director of forecasting called Oscar Orozco.
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C
Hello, listeners. Hey Marcus. Happy to be here.
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A
Glad to have you. Keep on going down the map. In a town called Philadelphia lives a principal analyst covering social media and the creator economy known as Maxwells. Yo, there he is. Today's fact. An eagle can spot rabbit sized prey from. How far away do you guys think in terms of. Let's do, let's do blocks, let's do city blocks.
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B
15 blocks.
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C
I was at 60, so 5.
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A
I could spot. Pray away from 60 is actually sounds ridiculous, Oscar. No events, but it's Almost spot on. 50, 50 blocks away, which is about two to three miles. Central park for reference is about two and a half miles. So an eagle, if it was Columbus Circle would be able to 6th round, 59th, 60th street would be able to spot a rabbit sized individual from the other end of the park.
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C
I don't know what's more impressive that it was so close. I mean it's the forecaster in me.
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A
Guys, but it's definitely the fact. Okay, it's not. It wasn't you. All right, let's move on. Anyways, that's a real topic. We make some very specific but highly unlikely predictions for 2026. Shark tank style. Complete ripoff complete. All right, here we go. This is how this episode works. If you watch Shark Tank, you'll be familiar. Ross is first. Or Dragon's Den. If you're in England, Ross is first. He gets 60 seconds to pitch a very specific but highly unlikely prediction he thinks will come true in 2026. Then me, Oscar, Max and everyone listening will decide if they want to invest in quotes. Basically, do we believe in the prediction? If you believe in it, then you're investing in it. Oscar goes next, so on and so forth. Let's do it. Ross, what do you have for us was a very specific but highly unlikely.
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B
Prediction for 2026 that major brands will start to sponsor end zones and backboards.
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A
Okay, so talk to us, because this kind of happens now, right? Like, there is sponsors that appear on them, but you're talking about something more longer term, I assume.
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B
So there are some sponsorships, like on jerseys and equipment for these leagues. And sometimes you'll see like a logo midfield or like, you know, on the hash mark on a football field. But we haven't seen anything as aggressive as, like putting a State Farm logo on the glass backboard of an NBA game or, you know, like a Honda ad throughout the whole end zone. I just feel like the leagues are getting more aggressive and where they'll put ads and they've kind of run out of space on the wall of the stadium, so they're going to insert more right into the field.
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A
Will this change each. Every quarter, every game? Is this something where we're sponsoring the end zone of the Cincinnati Bengals for the whole season?
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B
Oh, that's a great question. You know, I haven't thought it all the way through that far.
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A
Be surprised.
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B
It's a, you know, if it's. If it's painted on there physically, like an end zone, that would be at least the whole game. But, you know, what you're talking about was more dynamic. And I could see it going that route, too, because they already do this with the pitchers. Mounds. Yeah, the back of a pitcher's mound. They'll even change sometimes throughout a game. The logo that's on there, because it's just holographically put on the broadcast, it doesn't really exist on the play, on the field of play. So you could be like digital out of home. You could, like, just serve different Creative. In the third quarter. Fourth quarter. It gets to be 30 degrees in the fourth quarter because the sun has gone down. Campbell soup ad in the end zone. Why not?
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C
I was gonna mention the holographs. I mean, we've seen those. I could see that happening more. But is there. Did this come to mind, Ross? You know, because when I'm thinking about sports right now, I keep thinking about women's sports. So is this something that's already happening there? Is this part of what's going to drive some of this as well? But I do agree with you that I'm seeing more opportunity. So I was wondering about that part of it.
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B
Well, I guess what spawned it is just like watching NBA and NFL now and just seeing more at, like, more sponsorships than I'd seen before. And especially if you ever go on YouTube and watch an Old game. It's jarring. Like how clean it looks, like how much. There's just less clutter on the screen, which makes you think there's just going to be more coming very soon because the leagues are, you know, very, very hungry for money and, and the advertisers are hungry to participate with the leagues. And there's Only so many 30 second commercials you can buy up. Yeah. Once those sell out, you know why. Why not plaster your logo on the backboard or on the ball itself? You know, why? Are there any limits?
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D
Do you think that this is going to be something that the individual franchises will sell or will it be like a league wide? Like. And it looks like we're in Bud light field goal range for, you know, whoever the hell it is. Like I, you know, it sounds like my idea of hell, but I'm curious to hear how you think it will.
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B
I think it'd be the individual teams just like. Because the reason I said is because like the, the individual teams have say right now over like the jersey logos in the NBA, so. Or there's. There's even like there's helmet stuff in mlb. So given how it's already sold right now by team, I, I think this was just extend that precedent.
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A
Yeah, I, I'm in. Because advertisers are already pushing the envelope. I've thought this similar to you, Russ. I've thought this for a while. The, the thing that really frustrates me is the, the pop.
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B
The.
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A
The 60. The 10 second ants that pop up in between free throws during an NBA game, which is infuriating. But there's also this sponsored quick game recaps. When they come back from a break, they're like this. I'm making this up. But something to the effect of the special delivery of the game brought to you by which is the best great pass of the game brought to you by UPS because they're talking about delivering things. Or there's Walmart 4K Sky Cam, so they're sponsoring cameras now as well.
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D
Um, I'm. I'm also in. Even though, as I said, I absolutely hate this.
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C
And same. I mean, agree with you completely, Max. I'm in. I buy it. You know, as a big soccer fan, I mean they're definitely pushing the envelope. Very recently there were ads mid game, so they sort of. You're seeing two screens at once and they'll show a quick ad. So they're definitely trying different formats. And. And so I wouldn't be surprised if we see something like this for sure.
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D
So do you guys think that maybe during the world, like, I think so much about soccer and it's a sport I watch less than, than others, but there's so much real estate, if you like. Like, I'm always surprised by, I think at this point, the last time I watched an NBA game, I saw three different brands, you know, superimposed on one side of court. And that's like much tighter quarters relative to half of a soccer pitch. Like, do you think that we could start seeing little boxes or, you know, logos, you know, following the.
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C
Absolutely. I, I agree with you. I mean, we don't. You don't see anything on the field right now, but, you know, soccer was the first to have, you know, sponsorships and on, on the jerseys and, you know, even some of these, like, holographs. So in some ways they're innovators. But I, I agree with you. I do think they could use the field a bit more.
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A
Yeah, maybe this coming World cup might see some stuff.
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B
Soccer had an interesting thing with the Dallas Cowboys with the fee. Didn't they make the. The tournament isn't going to be at AND T Stadium. They're going to say that it's Dallas Stadium because there's like FIFA rules on mentioning a sponsor's name. So, like, broadcast is not going to say @&t. Okay, yeah, I mean, that makes sense.
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C
I hadn't heard of that, but it makes a lot of sense.
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A
Well, that, that was. Last point I wanted to make before we move on was I do. I think it might make more sense for advertisers to only sponsor the thing for a short while because personally, like, I'm a Lakers fan and so I've always known that it's been the Staples center before it changed its name to crypto.com arena, but I never thought of Staples the company. When I thought of State, I was just the Staples Center. And similar with Citi Field, I don't think. Oh, Citi Field. Citibank. So I wonder if, like, after a while it becomes. You just become so used to what the name is that you stop thinking about the company in association with.
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B
I mean, when I watch the Houston Astros, I still call it Enron Field.
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D
Yeah.
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C
Oh, my goodness. Dating ourselves there. But I see.
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B
Wait for Keg Biggio to get up to the plate and get a double.
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A
I think we're all in. Great, great start, Ross with three investments off the back. So you basically have to bat perfect 1000, gents, if you want to win Oscar. What do you have?
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C
So here, shifting from sponsorship, marketing to E commerce and social media. My prediction is TikTok shop is on track to crash the US E Commerce top 10. When we look at it from top e commerce platforms and retailers, that's in 2026 and I believe it might be able to break into the top five within the next two or three years after that. So massive growth from TikTok. TikTok shop and it's, you know, a lot of things are driving it there, but more and more people are shopping on, on the platform.
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A
So we'll give folks some context because we do have numbers for Tikshop right now. Where does it sit in terms of the rankings at the moment? Roughly?
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C
At the moment it's roughly, I think around 12th, I believe 12th or 13. So it's slightly under. Yeah, just outside the top 10. But there are some massive retailers. I mean we're comparing marketplaces to social commerce platforms. Sometimes it's hard to envision that, but ultimately it boils down to where people are shopping, where they're finding the items that they need on a, you know, on a daily or weekly basis. And yeah, the way TikTok shop is growing, it should be able to easily crack that top 10 next year. And you know, just a bit more context, I mean it's only launched a little over two years ago in the US so we have seen just massive triple digit growth in sales numbers since then.
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A
Mm. So for a little bit more context as well, outside of Amazon, about half a trillion dollars this year in retail. Walmart second place, a long way behind that with about 120 billion. Then Apple quite far behind that with 45. And then it's a pretty, gets close. Yeah, long tail, it's rafter. So it, it definitely has the ability to leapfrog something. You don't have to make, you know, 10, 30, 40, 100, $200 billion to leapfrog someone. You only need to make an extra, you know, 500 million billion to be able to, to, to get over some of these guys in front of it. So I can see it happening.
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C
Yeah, yeah, there, there are players like temu, which Tick Tock Shop is really competing against as well. So I think very, very feasible. You know, we're just seeing so much interest from Gen Z. Gen Z's purchasing power continues to grow and just the gamification of shopping. There's more shoppable media, interesting ads which are leading to one click purchases. The live stream story, live stream shopping is becoming much more popular nowhere close to where it is in China, but we're seeing A lot of, a lot more interest and growth in that here in the US So lots of reasons to see this happening next year.
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D
Yeah, it's interesting to think about.
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B
The.
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D
Ways that they're trying to sort of broaden the use of TikTok Shop. They announced I guess maybe like a couple of weeks ago that Kim Kardashian was going to do a live stream shopping event on their platform. Because to your point, Oscar, it does seem like this is a phenomenon that's driven largely by Gen Z and to a lesser extent millennials. But do you think that that's going to be sort of most of the engine behind it is just youngish consumers whose shopping behaviors are still kind of crystallizing, just leaning more into something that they've gotten comfortable doing already or.
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C
I think so. I think so. And I think there's a lot more potential there for growth because we're, you know, we have a number. I mean it's not exactly apples to apples, but when we look at TikTok buyers, not necessarily all of those are buying on TikTok shop, but they're only spending a little bit under $300 a year. Right. So let's say the frequency goes up and we see more purchases of expensive products. Right. It could be luxury items or tech products. You know, you'll see that dollar amount go up. So I think a lot of that will come primarily from more frequency of purchasing, higher order value and just mainly Gen Z and like you said, millennials down the line, we' other generations also, you know, come on board. But for now I would say it's, it's mainly from that generation.
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D
Yeah, makes a lot of sense.
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A
The TikTok buyers numbers just circle back to that for a second. That's what gave me pause because we have 53 and again this is TikTok social buyers. We have 53 million US this year. We expect 58, call it 58 million next year and then going up by basically a couple of million each of the following. So what we're really hoping for, Oscar to drive this trend is, and we, we do, we of the TikTok Shop retail e commerce sale numbers we said was about 15, 16, 16 billion this year. We're expecting to go up to 23 billion the year after that, 20, 26, which is significant growth and then maybe 5 billion each of the following years. What we're saying there to what you were just to your early point, it's a somewhat slightly higher number of people spending a relatively significant more amount of money to grow this Exactly.
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C
I mean, yeah, that's really what it is, but we're seeing that shift in social, right? This is just like a microchasm and just the social commerce story and how it's not the only platform, but it's shifting from being kind of a discovery, inspiration avenue to being more like a conversion. And TikTok themselves recently mentioned how almost all of the users on the platform are expected to use the app for advice and inspiration, and ultimately a lot of them will actually purchase a gift through there. So that's just part of that momentum we're seeing with social commerce in general.
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D
I have no questions because I was jealous that I was jealous of this prediction to begin with.
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C
Easy buy. That's what I want to hear.
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D
Got my money.
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B
Yeah, I'm gonna buy. Because last few years, I was, like, a little skeptical TikTok would get as big as people predicted, and then it got even bigger. So I've learned my lesson. I believe you. I'm buying.
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C
There you go. Let's make it three out of three.
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A
Let me check our numbers quick. Let me do some more research. I think.
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D
Oh, God.
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A
Live research. I just need to check Home Depot's numbers. I think I'm in.
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C
You're in?
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A
Yeah, yeah. I think top 10. Top 10 for sure. And actually, I think. I think. I think you're 20, 27, 8, 9, whatever. Prediction is also gonna be spot on top five. Oh, yeah, yeah, I think. I think you're spot.
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C
I think that's gonna happen, guys. I mean, it's pushing up on Temu and. And just the. You know, you're stuck with the marketplaces and it's. We're seeing the shift to social, so I nicely see it happening.
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A
3 out of 3. Hat trick for Oscar. Hopefully none of those from Lamine Yamal.
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C
This, you know, it's coming, Marcus. No pressure. No pressure there, Max.
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D
You guys can just buy it by now, but just do it blind so we can have some harmony. All right, so my prediction is that 2026 will be the year that creators and retail media networks begin to work together more visibly. So this has sort of been a question that a lot of people in the media and retail chattering classes have been wondering about for a while, which is when kind of the creator economy and the retail media industrial complex will start to intertwine or intersect a little bit. And it has begun happening in kind of small ways, usually kind of oriented around affiliate marketing. So Walmart's had a creator program for a while. Amazon, obviously, is kind of the granddaddy of it with affiliate marketing. But starting over the second half of 2025, you started to see examples of these two worlds kind of intermingling a little bit more. So for example, you've had Best Buy ads and Dude Perfect have announced that they're going to have this big partnership that's going to last I think all of 2026. Sephora and Conde Nast launched a creator storefront which will allow creators to essentially set up personalized storefronts that exist on their website. And you've also seen little examples too of this as well that have gone really well. So like Dick's Sporting Goods has something called, I think it's called the Varsity Team, which is essentially a brand ambassador program that taps into creators mostly in the form of professional and semi professional athletes. And so I just think that as you know, retail media networks look to find ways to kind of broaden their appeal to brands and find ways to deliver on not just bottom funnel KPIs, but really full funnel objectives. You're going to see more of this. And frankly too, I mean creators, especially the folks that are not in that kind of 0.01% who are all looking for ways to make more money and monetize their followings more effectively, this kind of thing is going to wind up being very attractive to them. So those are all the reasons that I could see this becoming more prominent in 2026.
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A
Is there a current example or a future hypothetical that you think exists that would really just hit extremely well?
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D
So I think a lot about, I mean, the Dude Perfect in Best Buy ads to me signaled the potential for a lot of stuff like this in the future with more specialized retail media networks. So like when you think about retail media, most of the money goes to Amazon and Walmart because they are marketplaces, because they operate at this kind of on this plane that's sort of separate from everybody else. But if you are a Home Depot or a Lowe's, for example, I think it would absolutely be possible to forge partnerships with really visible creators that are really synonymous with home improvement. Whether it's people like Chip and Joanna Gaines or someone like Mike Rowe or someone much younger and more on, on the come up who is able to really create this kind of like Marcus Johnson. There you go. Yeah, you can finally get your Power Saw creations out there and do it for some extra money. Yeah. So basically essentially thinking as more retail media networks sort of lean into their kind of vertical advantages and benefits of their data, I think you could see them start to forge more Partnerships with sort of specialty creators that have real credibility to a certain, you know, target demographic that, that retail media, you know, has a good story to tell around to advertisers already.
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A
Yeah, gents, what do we think?
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C
Yeah, for me, the, I'm thinking of it from the consumer standpoint. I mean, how are we, I'm trying to visualize this a little bit. I mean, are we creating like a new digital storefront that actively is promoting these partnerships as a way, you know, to sort of, you know, engage the consumer? Or is this really just, you know, back end kind of, you know, the using first party data to help target the consumer and so they're kind of unaware of this? I guess I'm trying to understand more of how it would function, to understand if I could see this working. Ultimately it's up to the consumer and then that dictates whether it's beneficial to both parties here.
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D
So I think the answer, I'll give you the short answer and the long answer. The short answer is yes, like it's going to be sort of all of those things folded together. But I think that the sort of idealized version of it is a little something like this where, you know, Creator X creates a branded storefront on, let's say that it's someone who's a real popular pastry chef, for example, on YouTube and they spin up a branded storefront on, you know, on an instacart, for example. And all of a sudden as the sort of affiliate conversion data starts flowing in from people watching videos of this person make cakes or pies and people start buying the ingredients through their page, Instacart starts noticing it and goes, man, this woman really converts. People really seem to be about her and then looks at the stuff that is selling over and over again and then goes to, you know, the flower maker or the, you know, the butter brand that she seems to use every time and says, you know, just so you know, this woman absolutely has the ear of her audience and is doing this. So I think, you know, why don't I connect you two so that you guys can do more to promote your wares using our platform, using our pipes. And then all of a sudden, in the interim, or rather in the early stages, this is, I think, going to be kind of a managed service, very, a little bit bespoke. But as this starts to really hum and work more at scale, I could absolutely see a form of this being automated. Walmart, for example, at the back half of this year, introduced a kind of, I forget the term of it it's maybe something like Walmart creator collab, which is basically like a Marketplace that allows Walmart.com sellers and creators to get synced up with one another. And so I think that a version of that could absolutely exist on multiple RMNs across the United States once everybody kind of gets acclimated to the process that powers it.
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A
I was listening, but at the back of my mind I was thinking, what kind of pies are we talking here? Chicken pot, probably. Ross.
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B
You ask me about the pies.
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A
What kind of pies? I wish. Are you in?
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B
Yeah, I think so. The only thing that would stop me from being in is if this was already happening a lot already and not something that we're looking forward to happening. But. But it is already in the process of. But, you know, it all makes sense to me for why the this convergence would happen.
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D
I would say this is happening in the same way that, you know, TikTok shop is already rolling. You know, like in the same way that TikTok shop, I think you said Oscars, like, ranked 12th and we think it'll crack 10. I think this is already happening in a couple of places, but the, the snowball is going to pick up speed as it rolls down the hill, if that makes sense.
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B
Yeah.
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C
Yeah.
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A
All right. I think Ross, that's a yes. He's in. Oscar.
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C
Yeah. For me, now that I understand logistically how it would work, I'm in. I'm in as well. It makes a lot of sense.
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A
All right. God. Me too, I guess. God, this has been the worst. It's not competitive at all.
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B
Did we do this wrong here where we were. We're all too friendly. We should have dispatched.
- [25:46]
C
Well, yes, I've been on an episode before. There were a lot of no's. I think these are just good ideas.
- [25:52]
A
There are three great predictions, though, and we do have another episode on Friday. And so let's see if they can get a clean sweep. Nine out of nine for investments. Three for Ross's. Major brands will start to sponsor sports end zones, backboards and pitches. Mounds three for Oscars. TikTok shop breaking the top 10 US E commerce platforms by sales and market share. Knocking on the door of top five soon. And Max's creators and retail media networks beginning to work together more visibly. Three investments there as well. I wonder what folks listening in thought. Probably none for everyone, but nice job. I guess everyone won. That's all we have time for for today's episode. Gents, thank you so much for hanging out with me today. Thank you. First, Toronto, thanks Marcus and Oscar.
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C
Thanks man.
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A
Finally to Max.
- [26:40]
D
Always a pleasure Marcus Thing.
- [26:41]
A
Thanks to the whole production crew and to everyone listening to behind the Numbers new Market video podcast made possible by viasat ads. Tune in Wednesday to hang out with Susie David Canyon from the Reimagining retail show. I hope to see everyone Friday, as I mentioned for more very specific but highly unlikely predictions. In another what if episode, Sam.