Behind the Numbers: What If? Sports Team Sponsorships, TikTok Shop's Ceiling, and a Creator–Retail Media Network Marriage

Date: December 15, 2025
Host: Marcus (EMARKETER)
Guests: Ross Benish, Oscar Orozco, Max (Maxwell)

Overview

This special “What If?” edition of Behind the Numbers brings together EMARKETER analysts to make bold, specific—if unlikely—predictions for 2026. Framed in a Shark Tank–style format, each expert pitches their forecast, and the team discusses its plausibility, potential industry impact, and why it may come true. This episode blends fun competitive energy with real market insights into advertising, ecommerce, and creator-business partnerships.

1. [02:55] Sports Team Sponsorships: Branding the Playing Field

Prediction:
Ross predicts major brands will sponsor not only jerseys, but in-game assets like end zones, backboards, and possibly the ball itself, resembling a more aggressive approach to ad placement in major leagues by 2026.

Discussion & Insights

• Current Landscape & What Changes:

  • Existing sponsorships already appear on jerseys and some equipment; mid-field logos in football/lacrosse, or occasional hash marks on football fields.

  • Ross envisions moving beyond current norms—think “State Farm” plastered on the glass backboard every game, or “Honda” ads in NFL end zones.

    “We haven’t seen anything as aggressive as putting a State Farm logo on the glass backboard of an NBA game or, you know, a Honda ad throughout the whole end zone… The leagues are getting more aggressive and where they’ll put ads and they’ve kind of run out of space on the wall of the stadium, so they’re going to insert more right into the field.” — Ross [03:13]

• Dynamic Ad Possibilities:

  • Potential for digital/holographic overlays that change throughout games, paralleling digital ads already seen on pitcher’s mounds.

  • More granular targeting and relevance by quarter, weather, or broadcast segment.

    “You could be like digital out of home. You could, like, just serve different Creative… It gets to be 30 degrees in the fourth quarter… Campbell soup ad in the end zone. Why not?” — Ross [04:16]

• Influence of Women’s and International Sports:

  • Oscar speculates that innovations may come from women’s sports or soccer, which have pioneered jersey ads and creative sponsorships.

    “Women's sports… is this part of what’s going to drive some of this as well? But I do agree with you that I’m seeing more opportunity…” — Oscar [04:46]

• Team vs. League Sales:

  • Ross asserts individual franchises will control these deals, as they already do with jersey logos and equipment sponsorships. League-wide naming is less likely.

  “Individual teams have say right now over the jersey logos in the NBA… I think this was just extend that precedent.” — Ross [06:13]

• Context & Caution:

  • Marcus observes stadium names like “Staples Center” can lose brand relevance when they become part of local language, not associated with the business.

    “I never thought of Staples the company… Similar with Citi Field, I don’t think ‘Oh, Citi Field, Citibank.’… After a while… you stop thinking about the company.” — Marcus [09:09]

Consensus (Investment):

• All three panelists (“I’m in”) buy in—even if, as Max jokes, the proliferation of ads is “my idea of hell.” [06:11–07:24]

2. [10:11] TikTok Shop’s Ceiling: Crashing the Top 10 (Maybe Top 5) in US Ecommerce

Prediction: Oscar forecasts TikTok Shop will break into the US ecommerce top 10 by sales in 2026—and possibly the top 5 within a few more years, driven by social commerce trends and Gen Z engagement.

Discussion & Insights

• Current Standing and Growth:

  • TikTok Shop, launched ~2 years ago, is already around 12th/13th place for US ecommerce sales; explosive triple-digit growth, especially among Gen Z [10:55–11:41].

  “The way TikTok shop is growing, it should be able to easily crack that top 10 next year…we have seen just massive triple digit growth in sales numbers.” — Oscar [11:27]

• Market Context:

  • Reference stats: Amazon >$500B retail, Walmart ~$120B, Apple ~$45B. Passing a few billion in extra sales can move TikTok Shop into the top 10. [11:41–12:27]

• Drivers of Growth:

  • Gamification of shopping

  • Shoppable media and one-click purchases

  • Live shopping is gaining traction (still below China but rising in the US)

  • High purchase intent among Gen Z and Millennials

    “More shoppable media, interesting ads… leading to one-click purchases. The live stream story… is becoming much more popular…” — Oscar [12:27]

• Panel Insights:

  • Max highlights TikTok’s efforts to expand, e.g., Kim Kardashian’s live shopping event, and asks whether growth will be primarily Gen Z-driven [13:10–13:47].
  • Oscar cites average spend is under $300/year for TikTok buyers, suggesting growth will stem from more frequent and higher value purchases—again Gen Z/Millennials, but older users will join [13:47–14:35].

• EMARKETER Forecasts:

  • 53M US TikTok social buyers in 2025 → 58M in 2026 (steady multi-million increases yearly).

  • TikTok Shop retail ecommerce: $16B (2025) → $23B (2026); up ~$5B/year subsequently.

    “A slightly higher number of people spending a relatively significant more amount of money to grow this.” — Marcus [15:33]

• The Macro Trend:

  • Social commerce is shifting from discovery/inspiration to conversion as the norm [15:33–16:14].

• Decisions:

  • Max and Ross both instantly agree: “I’m buying.”
  • Marcus: “Top 10 for sure… And actually… your top 5 prediction [by 2028] is also gonna be spot on.” [16:54–17:08]

3. [17:32] Creator–Retail Media Network Marriage: Partnerships Go Mainstream

Prediction:
Max predicts 2026 will be the year creators and retail media networks (RMNs) work together in visible, scalable ways—not just affiliate links, but creator-branded shopping experiences layered across RMNs.

Discussion & Insights

• Momentum & Early Evidence:

  • Partnerships evolving beyond affiliate marketing (Amazon, Walmart creator programs) to creator-branded storefronts and ambassador teams:

    • Best Buy & Dude Perfect (2026)
    • Sephora + Condé Nast: Personalized creator storefronts
    • Dick’s Sporting Goods Varsity Team (athlete creators)

    “Starting over the second half of 2025, you started to see examples… where you’ve had Best Buy and Dude Perfect… Sephora and Conde Nast…” — Max [18:15]

  • “Retail media industrial complex” starts to intertwine with the creator economy.

• Why It’s Inevitable:

  • RMNs seek to deliver both bottom-funnel (direct sales) and full-funnel (awareness, brand-building) results.

  • Most creators outside the top 0.01% still need new revenue streams.

    “Creators… looking for ways to make more money and monetize their followings…this kind of thing is going to wind up being very attractive to them.” — Max [19:43]

• Example Use Case and Automation:

  • Creator (e.g., a pastry chef) spins up a custom storefront on Instacart.

  • As affiliate conversion data shows success, Instacart approaches brands featured on the creator’s page for expanded sponsorship or collaboration.

  • At scale, RMNs (e.g., Walmart’s Creator Collab Marketplace) could automate these introductions so brands and creators find each other efficiently [22:16–24:25].

    “As this starts to really hum and work more at scale… could absolutely see a form of this being automated.” — Max [24:00]

• Consumer Experience & Data:

  • Oscar wonders if the play is consumer-facing (custom storefronts) or behind-the-scenes (data-driven).
  • Max: “All of those things folded together.”

• Panel Verdict:

  • Ross: “Yeah, I think so. The only thing… would stop me is if this was already happening a lot.” But agrees momentum will greatly accelerate [24:41–25:01].
  • Oscar: “I’m in… now that I understand logistically how it would work, I’m in.”
  • Marcus: “Me too, I guess… this has been the worst [competition-wise, since everyone’s all-in].” [25:34]

Notable Quotes & Timestamps

• “Once those [commercial spots] sell out… why not plaster your logo on the backboard or on the ball itself? You know, why? Are there any limits?” — Ross [05:12]
• “They’re sponsoring cameras now as well.” — Marcus [07:04]
• “I think maybe this coming World Cup might see some stuff.” — Marcus [08:43]
• “We’re seeing the shift to social, so I nicely see it happening.” — Oscar [17:08]
• “This has sort of been a question… when the creator economy and the retail media industrial complex will start to intertwine… and it has begun happening in small ways… but I think the snowball is going to pick up speed.” — Max [19:55, 25:01]

Key Takeaways

• Advertising space will continue to push boundaries, especially in sports—expect more real estate on screens, fields, and even equipment to be up for sale.
• Social commerce is not only surging—TikTok Shop is positioned to disrupt the ecommerce leaderboard with Gen Z causing the greatest acceleration.
• The intersection of creators and retail media networks will become highly visible and a central digital commerce trend, inviting brands, retailers, and everyday creators to share in the value creation.

Everyone agreed: These “unlikely” forecasts are not as far-fetched as they might have first sounded. Strong market and behavioral trends make each prediction more than plausible for 2026 and beyond.