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A
Unlock more growth with awin. Tackle acquisition, conversions and retention by tapping into a network of over a million affiliate partners with everything from partner management to reporting and payments in one easy dashboard, AWIN helps brands drive real scalable results. Visit awin.comemarketer to learn more. Hey gang. It's Friday, August 22nd. Jeremy Sayrat, Paul and listeners, welcome to behind the Numbers and Email podcast made possible by awin. I'm Marcus and join Joining me in the studio we have Senior Director of Briefings, Jeremy Goldman.
B
Hey, Happy World Plant Milk Day. Yeah, I think that's what it is. Yeah.
A
Did you make that up?
B
It's a real thing. You can Google we'll have.
A
You just told us you couldn't find one for today and now you've said something about World Plant Milk.
B
Well, I think you're hallucinating.
A
Are you?
B
Are you an AI browser?
A
I don't think that I'm going to assume this one. They're all fake. Let's be honest. Are any of them real that you bring to the table?
B
I think at least some of them are, yes.
A
A soft no. We're also joined by principal retail and commerce media analyst Sarah Marzano. Hello.
C
Hey Marcus. Thanks for having me.
A
Normal.
B
Sorry.
C
Well, he took the World Milk Day, so I'm jumping back.
A
Yeah. Nothing. We're also joined remote from main VP of content is Paul Werner.
D
Great to be here, although I wish I were there.
A
You really don't. We missed the rough stuff. Today's fact. Parts of the brain can fall asleep whilst you're awake.
C
I think that's happening to me.
D
Yeah, I knew that. I knew that. It's my lived experience every day.
A
It's called local sleep and the National Institute of Health describes it as a phenomenon where specific brain regions enter a sleep like state while the rest of the brain remains awake, occurring because of things like sleep deprivation or. Or repetitive tasks. There's also something called the doorway effect. You guys know what this is?
B
No.
A
You've all experienced it, trust me. So you know when you forget why you entered a room? Yeah. In a Scientific American article, researchers at Notre Dame University explained that your brain organizes information into event models. So when you walk through a doorway, your brain thinks it's the end of an event. Because whatever happened in the old room is likely to become less relevant now that you you've changed venues. As a result of that transition, some short term memories linked to the previous room get filed away, making it hard to recall why you came in the room in the first place.
C
I just. That's the most interesting fun fact you've brought.
A
I try not to be that shocked. Please.
C
Sorry. I really like that one.
A
Thank you.
C
I'm trying to be nice.
B
I was gonna say thank you.
D
I like it too, but I live in an open concept space and I forget stuff all the time.
B
I mean, I was gonna say that's why a lot of New Yorkers live in a studio. You know, you have your bathroom right in the middle of your living room and this way you're never entering. That's problems. Yeah, we've got great memories.
A
Anyway, today's real topic. What if the future of digital actually looks quite different Mini Shark Tank style. Okay, so this flavor of episode used to be called very specific but highly unlikely predictions. We've shortened it to what if. How does it work? Great question. Each person, Jeremy first. Will have 60 seconds to pitch a very specific but highly unlikely prediction for the future of digital in 2026, which happens to be the name of the event we have coming up in a few weeks. Steal some tickets. I don't know if that's true, but you could try. And then the rest of us, who will all be there, me, Sarah and Paul in the instance if Jeremy's going first and everyone listening will decide if we are going to invest, believe in the prediction. Then we move on to the next contestant and repeat. So Sarah will be next. Me, Jeremy and Paul will become the new panel. Let's do it. Jeremy, what you got?
B
What if browsers become the new AI battleground? And yeah, so I was thinking about this because Perplexity recently made an offer to buy Chrome for about twice its valuation. You know, I think they could probably get a few loans to cover the rest. But it kind of got me thinking. All of the training data that you get from browsers is incredibly valuable. And then basically controlling the interface, changing the way that users behave, and just getting people to start in a browser is very valuable. Could this be something like if Chrome becomes no longer part of Google? That would be a really big deal. But also if you're Perplexity, you're spending a lot to develop Comet. I played with a lot of other nascent brands, browsers like dia, which is a really cool one that Henry Powderly from our team turned me onto. And then there's so many other ones where you could very well see a glut of new search experiences that are a lot of training data for new AI models. So I'm really paying a lot of attention to this.
A
What do you think?
D
I'm a Little skeptical because the browser seems secondary to me. So if Perplexity has enough mind share enough brand equity, they're going to want to create an experience that is even bigger and more far reaching than just a browser. So it would be like a shopping assistant, an agent, you know, just, just a lot of features that aren't necessarily, that people don't necessarily associate with a browser. Very few browsers have name recognition. I mean we're basically talking about like Chrome has the market cornered and I think if it were about the browser, Microsoft would have invested more in making Bing more sort of like AI friendly. And clearly they haven't gone in that direction. So I'm not saying it can't happen. And Jeremy, I haven't experimented with some of these up and coming browsers that you have and maybe I might have a different take on it, but it's still like even if you have a really cool browser, you still have to build brand equity around that browser and you have to attract obviously a lot of traffic to monetize it. So it's a tall order to upset the browser status quo right now. Yeah, but you know, if Google is forced to sell, then I think all bets are off.
C
Yeah, I think an acquisition of a browser like Chrome would be like the most plausible way this could go forward. So you don't have to think about changing the consumer habits and getting them to do something new.
A
Yeah, I think I'm out because you said AI battleground as well and I'm wondering how much of it, like there are a lot of, it seems like there are a lot of up and coming browsers. How much of a battleground will it be do you think?
B
See the thing is that if you create a new browser, let's say, and you're one of these players and you get only 3% market share, that's pretty meaningful to your bottom line and you're starting to control user behavior and a lot more. There is a reason why Google, what is it Paul, you might know, but 20 billion, a very high number to Apple to be the default search engine. So it's a lot of money. Right. And that kind of like proves the value of controlling the search experience. If there are going to be agentic commerce and other types of assistance and they're embedded into a browser, then you can see a lot more uptick versus getting people to go to a specific URL. It's probably a lot more valuable to get people to download your browser and constantly interact and think about your company rather than getting people to a URL that they can quickly bounce off of and then they're no longer in your experience. Right. It's the same way that we've seen a lot of brands spend a lot to develop and invest in their app because they have more control over that.
A
User experience then I like this one, but I'm out. Paul.
D
Yeah, I'm out. I have all my eggs in the crypto basket. Anything. You guys can have the most brilliant ideas and I'm going to be out.
A
We should talk after.
D
Just kidding.
C
So I'm going to say, and just to keep it interesting and at the.
B
Very least motivated me.
C
No, you've motivated me to go test some of these new browsers.
B
I'm honored. Thank you. I might have your back.
C
I've not been invited to this one before.
A
So Sarah's in, but she doesn't quite know why. All right, Sarah, you're up. What if.
C
Oh God. Okay. My what if is what if by 2026 we all realize that the notion that agentic AI assistants taking over shopping, that the hype around that was actually just hype. And that even if AI assistants can act autonomously and can technically shop on their own, we'll see that most people actually still prefer to have a lot of guidance over their purchase decisions and selection. And I brought a few backup pieces of evidence for this. The first being progressive Grocer runs a great study every year on the state of in store tech for grocers. And they do a consumer end of it. And from their most recent survey, they found that among consumers who don't shop online for groceries, and more than 90%, 90% of groceries are still purchased in physical stores, 77% of those consumers say it's because they prefer to pick products themselves. Right. If shopping was just about convenience, we'd see a much higher rate of grocery orders being fulfilled online. There was also a consumer survey from a company called Omnisend that found that 66% of US consumers said they wouldn't be willing to let AI make purchases on their behalf even if it meant they would get a better deal. And then a much more sort of far reaching, pervasive argument that I feel like doesn't come up enough is that we have decades of research in behavioral science that tells us that predicting what individuals are going to purchase is logistically impossible. Right. We can predict what large groups of populations are going to buy and that's what makes it possible to stock grocery stores with the right assortments based on where they're located. But knowing exactly what Sarah Marzano is going to purchase on her next grocery order is nearly impossible. So there's too much friction that can occur by buying the wrong thing. And I just don't think consumers are going to be willing to give over their financial information to let this happen. Plus, I think people like shopping.
B
Oh, well, I'm okay. So I'm in on this for a number of reasons especially. No, I was going to say not at all. Pity the. I do not owe. I do not owe her. I was, I'm actually a slightly less in because she referred to herself in the third person.
C
But I didn't like that either. I felt it happening and I was like stop it, stop.
B
So, so, but, but I will say that what makes a lot of sense is like there's a lot of times where people are shopping and they're doing it because it's fun and then they go back and return and they know they're going to return stuff and they don't like returning. But shopping is entertainment for a lot of people. You know, I think that that's why a lot of categories don't penetrate as well online. So that's a really good point. Do I think that this winds up taking up a share of the market in some categories? Yeah, but I think it's also going to take a lot longer. So since we're talking about the near term, definitely one.
A
So just to confirm, you're saying that it's not going to agentic AI is not going to overtake shopping next year or you just don't see this being a shift.
C
And I want to be specific that I'm talking about like autonomous agentic purchases happening.
A
Right, right.
C
Because I think there's so much momentum and traction for shopping via AI assistant. Right. And there being a really significant new surface where customers are discovering and research and considering products and that that is going to be a disruption that impacts retail overall. But I think we get a little bit carried away when we get really excited about the ability of these agents to shop and make this purchase decisions autonomously. I just don't see that happening.
A
Okay, so let me quickly throw this to you because I found this graphic from from us and it kind of explains how the current shopping journey is versus what the using an AI agent might look like. So the current one, it goes through the steps. Search engine, click on several ads, find products, visit social media to check out different posts on the product. Visit marketplace, go back to the retailers web to check prices, go back to the retailer's website, create an account to check Out. And then you buy the thing in the other world. It says, you're speaking to this thing. And it's a, please find me a black bag that will fit. Laptop for under $50. It comes back with four options. Then you say, which one would you recommend? I want it to be. I want to have it as part of my commute. I commute by bike. And then it says, I recommend option 2. The reviews say, these are the reasons why. And then you say back, please order number two. Deliver it by Thursday from a retailer with free delivery. And it says, sure. Taken care of. Is that the world that you're saying won't exist, or you're saying, most of that can exist, just not the buying bit at the end?
C
I think most of it can exist, but I also think that you're playing a significant role within that interaction around making the decision and giving the agent permission to do it.
A
Right. The agency is still within you, and.
C
I think that will likely happen. I still think it's going to be small, and it's going to not overtake most categories.
B
Fashion, for instance, that's, to me, a perfect example of, like, I don't think that you could describe to it what my taste is with a way that, like, I would believe and trust it, but, like, I don't know, like, very basic, like, things around the house that are, like, under $10 type of. Just do some price comparison. Here's your budget. Like, that, to me, makes sense that that might. Yeah, exactly.
D
And on the fashion front, like, this is coming from a guy who's wearing purple in a purple studio. So.
B
I don't read the memos, that.
D
Sort of purple haze, Purple Rain thing. But I'm in on this one. I'm. I'm skeptical of the agent basically controlling that entire chain right through the purchase. I think there are definitely aspects of it that people will appreciate having an agent or an AI assistant for. But it reminds me a little bit of a cartoon I saw way back when Jeff Bezos bought Whole Foods. And the cartoon was of him saying, alexa, please pull up my Whole Foods grocery list so I can buy my stuff. There's. And then Alexa just heard, buy Whole foods. And then you see, like, this panicked look on Jeff Bezos face, which, you know, he can afford it either way. Most of us can't. So, like, if my $10,000 vacation for four is something that I completely entrust an agent to do, like, I'm not going to feel comfortable with that or even something a lot less than that. So, yeah, I think for me, it's not so much about the shopping experience being fun because frankly, for me, a lot of times it's like pulling hair. And as you can see, I've already pulled all of my hair. But it's really more about just the wallet tapping into your wallet.
C
I think something that your example makes me think of is, like, in the 2010s, with the rise of all the digitally native brands, we also saw a lot of subscription models that were meant to ease replenishment of products that they knew you were going to have to repurchase. And that was obviously a sort of way to lock in recurring revenue. But subscriptions are really hard to get right because there's so much friction. If you. Let's say that it's your shampoo, right, or your toothpaste, you get it too late, you're without your toothpaste for a few days. That sucks. You get it too soon, you don't have anywhere to put it right. So keeping customers in that subscription journey got really. Is really inherently difficult. And I think there's a lot of parallels you can draw to letting an autonomous agent make your purchase decisions for you. Because if something goes wrong, then it's sort of still on you to fix.
A
Yeah, yeah. Even if you have a smart fridge with a million cameras and they say, oh, you can see you're getting low on milk, who knows how long to finish that milk?
C
Or maybe you're going at a time.
A
Exactly, exactly. So it is really hard to predict.
B
Shout out to world plant. What is it you need to make.
A
It roll off the tongue a little bit.
B
Okay, never mind. Cut that. We can cut that.
C
Don't cut.
A
Still committed to this one. Okay, good. Are you in on this prediction?
B
Oh, yeah, yeah. I was in before you guys.
A
Come on. He's trying to take the bigger share of the investment. I'm. For all the reasons you said, but also some Salesforce data I've got here. As you can see on the screen, interest level in AI agents for select uses. Top is optimize your loyalty points. Please do that for me. The bottom, Buy stuff, purchase complementary items based on existing products, or purchase recommended products on your behalf. So I'm in. Paul, what you got for us?
D
What if Genai leads to more of the kinds of jobs that it can easily destroy?
A
This one's fascinating. Explain yourself.
D
So I saw this Data point from Freelancer.com about how in Q2 there's been like this really big surge in job postings for the kinds of jobs that you would think AI is really encroaching on. And these are mostly creative jobs. And this goes to the point of. One of the biggest use cases of Gen AI is to generate content, creative content. So things like job postings for Adobe Lightroom skills or blog writing or Instagram content creation, video production, these are all up mostly like in, in the double digit percentage from the previous quarter if you look at the overall job market. And I know there's been a lot of controversy about the job numbers, but I went to Indeed.com's research section and I did an analysis of their daily average job postings in Q1 and then in Q2 and overall it's down in Q2 like by 2.8%. So there's clearly something happening with these jobs that people still need creative people for. And I don't think AI is going to change that, at least not in the short term. So there's all this sturm and drang about like, oh, AI is going to replace writers and creators. But I think that that human touch and that skill set is really, really valuable and is going to remain so for quite a while.
A
Larry Fink, CEO of BlackRock, refers to it as a restructuring, which I think is an interesting way of putting it, as opposed to you're going to get rid of a lot or you're going to gain a lot, but they're going to, it's going to look different. So I think I'm half in at this point.
B
Can we, I was gonna ask you if we can be half in and I can tell you, Susie, can I tell you why? Okay, well, exactly. Unlike vegetation, which she cannot create. Right.
C
She actually does a great job.
A
She's a farmer.
B
So yeah. Paul, I think the reason why I would say I'm half in is because of, you know, like, to the Mr. Fink's point, the idea of like this restructuring, I think it's going to hit some jobs for sure. Like let's say you might have seven copywriters on staff and maybe you can get that job done with four. And it impacts your team in one way, but you also might hire a few new people. And I think the perfect example of this is if you think about social media, video and creator content, you create a little bit of. The more you create, the more you create the awareness that this is a career path and then more people go down that route. And so I think that all the Gen AI tools means that it will create a lot of jobs, but it, but the displacement is also real. So that's why I'm like a little bit happy. Yeah.
A
It feels like both things are going to be true, right?
D
Yeah. I don't think it's binary and I think a lot of these job postings for all these creative positions, all those people applying into those jobs are going to be using AI more even within the context of those apps that they're experts in. So it's definitely not an either or scenario. But I think that the point I'm trying to make is that the value of the actual creative touch and the human touch is still there. And I think that AI is just not going to completely do away with that.
A
Yeah.
C
Sarah, as a writer, I'm all in on your prediction, but I think there's something to it. I agree with everyone that the pendulum might swing too far in one direction before it settles the other direction. But I think it's going to hopefully kick off some real critical thought around the quality of the work that gets. That's getting put out. Right. And the balance of sort of efficiency and what AI can do for us on that end with being able to put out, really sort of forward thinking or creative work, which I just don't see AI being able to replace.
A
Yeah, yeah. I mean, it could become a very unique selling point. The human just being a human. Yes. I really like the way Yuri described it. He was saying could the way that you look at music as acoustic, you could. And what that feeling does to you when you think about going to an acoustic set versus one that's plugged in. The human creative content being the acoustic version. So I think there could be something. There could be. These were human. This content was human made. And that being a really strong selling point.
C
When I write LinkedIn posts lately, I don't use AI because I'm so sick of reading everyone's gen AI generated copy on LinkedIn. Obviously I spend way more time on LinkedIn than the average person, but.
A
Yeah, yeah.
C
Can I suggest that our next E marketer event be called Analysts Unplugged?
B
Oh, that is such a great. Yes. I love that.
A
I'm half in half.
C
I was in.
A
All right.
C
Sorry, I thought we already did that. Wait, sorry, wait. Did Jeremy.
B
He likes to confirm though. Yeah, just confirming.
C
Okay.
A
For the listeners.
C
Got it.
A
Who are no longer paying attention because.
D
You might have walked through a doorway and forgot.
C
I kind of stopped paying attention.
A
There we go. Yeah. See, if you're not paying attention, we can't really expect the listeners to be either. If you are still listening to us. Thank you for hanging on by a thread, Sarah. Had the most investment. I think Jeremy. No, Paul was second. Jeremy, tough guy. But I appreciate that's fair. Congratulations to Sarah.
C
Thanks.
A
You won't.
C
I'm retiring. I retire today.
A
Oh.
D
Verna thinks you have the right to refer to yourself in the third person.
C
That's what I win.
A
Well, all of these predictions have been about the future of digital. As I mentioned, we have an event September 9th that we will all be at. They will be speaking. I will be handing out free merch. So come say hi. You can learn more about the event called the Future of digital@@emarketer.com events for information or tickets. That's all we have time for. Thank you so much to my guests. Thank you to Jeremy.
B
Pleasure as always.
A
And to Sarah.
C
Thanks for having me.
A
And of course, to Paul.
D
Always a pleasure. And I'd like the next podcast to be called Analysts Unhinged.
A
Sarah will be on that one. Did you say hi, Mum?
C
No, I said I won.
A
Oh, okay. All right.
C
Thank God my mom doesn't listen.
A
That's okay.
B
She will. To this one.
D
Now that you won't.
A
Doesn't need to. Thanks to the whole production crew and to everyone for listening into behind the Numbers new marketer video podcast made possible by A1 subscribe follow rate review all of the things we're back Monday, happiest of weekends.
Episode: What If? The Future of Digital — Browsers AI Battleground, Agentic Shopping Fails, and GenAI Creates Jobs
Date: August 22, 2025
Host: Marcus (EMARKETER)
Guests: Jeremy Goldman (Senior Director of Briefings), Sarah Marzano (Principal Retail and Commerce Media Analyst), Paul Werner (VP of Content)
This “What If?” segment of Behind the Numbers explores thought-provoking, and often unlikely, predictions for the near future of digital in 2026. The analysts play a roundtable “mini Shark Tank,” pitching scenarios and debating the plausibility and implications for marketers, retailers, and the broader digital ecosystem. In this episode, topics range from browsers as the next AI battleground, to the supposed demise of human-led shopping due to AI agents, and whether generative AI (GenAI) is actually increasing demand for the very creative jobs it threatens to automate.
Prediction by Jeremy Goldman
Timestamp: 03:56–08:10
Panel Reactions:
"The browser seems secondary to me… If it were about the browser, Microsoft would have invested more in making Bing more AI friendly. And clearly they haven't." —Paul [05:10]
Prediction by Sarah Marzano
Timestamp: 08:43–16:42
Panel Reactions:
"Shopping is entertainment for a lot of people... for a lot of categories [online sales] don't penetrate as well. So that's a really good point." —Jeremy [10:57]
"I think most of it can exist, but you're playing a significant role... giving the agent permission to do it." —Sarah [13:22]
Prediction by Paul Werner
Timestamp: 17:12–22:14
Panel Reactions:
"AI tools mean it will create a lot of jobs, but the displacement is also real. So that's why I'm a little bit half in." —Jeremy [19:22]
"Can I suggest our next E marketer event be called Analysts Unplugged?" —Sarah [22:10]
| Timestamp | Speaker | Quote or Moment | |-----------|---------|----------------| | 05:10 | Paul | "The browser seems secondary to me...If it were about the browser, Microsoft would have invested more in making Bing more AI friendly." | | 10:57 | Jeremy | "Shopping is entertainment for a lot of people..." | | 13:22 | Sarah | "I think most of it can exist, but you're playing a significant role... giving the agent permission to do it." | | 15:32 | Paul | "If something goes wrong, it's still on you to fix." (on autonomous AI shopping) | | 19:22 | Jeremy | "AI tools mean it will create a lot of jobs, but the displacement is also real. So that's why I'm a little bit half in." | | 21:56 | Marcus | "The human creative content being the acoustic version..." | | 22:10 | Sarah | "Can I suggest our next E Marketer event be called Analysts Unplugged?" | | 22:30 | Paul | "I'd like the next podcast to be called Analysts Unhinged." |
This episode is a must-listen for anyone navigating the intersection of tech, commerce, and human behavior. The predictions and panel debate challenge hype cycles with grounded evidence, delivering actionable insights for marketers, retailers, and digital strategists alike.