Podcast Summary: Behind the Numbers – What the 2025 Thanksgiving Period Told Us About This Year's Holiday Shopping Season | Reimagining Retail

Date: December 10, 2025
Host: Susie Deva Kenya (A)
Guests: Rachel Wolf, Analyst (B); Zach Stamborg, Senior Analyst (C)

Overview

This episode dives into the complex reality behind the record-breaking 2025 Thanksgiving shopping period. Despite headlines touting historic highs in shopper turnout and spending, retailer commentary and the data reveal a more nuanced picture. The analysts break down key trends, surprising shifts, emerging battlegrounds like mobile and AI, and the evolving consumer mindset—offering retailers and marketers crucial insights as the holiday season enters its final stretch.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Thanksgiving Weekend: The Dual Narrative

• Top-line Results:
  • Record 203 million shoppers over the five-day period (NRF)
  • Online spending hit new highs: Cyber Monday alone $14B (Adobe)
• Mixed Signals:
  • Macy’s CEO highlighted shopper selectivity and category pullbacks, adding nuance to the "record-breaking" narrative.
  • Susie: “With headlines swinging from record breaking to shoppers pulling back, it's really honestly hard to make heads or tails of how we should feel about the holidays right now.” (01:29)

Memorable Quotes

• Zach: “I bought so much and I did it on Black Friday. Yes, I did it all online.” (01:51)
• Rachel: “I honestly felt like the deals weren't as great, and I needed to do a lot more comparison shopping to find the best deals.” (02:38)
• Susie: “I used LLMs and it kind of discouraged me, so I didn’t even end up buying one [a TV].” (03:00)

2. Surprising Developments & Channel Dynamics

Rise of TikTok Shop

• Rachel: TikTok Shop generated over $500M in sales during Cyber 5, over 1% of total e-commerce for the period despite being new to the market. (03:51)
• Rachel: “That just tells you how much of a commerce engine it’s becoming.” (04:16)
• Social commerce and creator/influencer channels are now major conversion engines, not just discovery platforms. (04:26)

Department Store Declines & Discount Migration

• Zach: “We saw declines at JCPenney, at Macy's, at Kohl’s. And Dillard's just had the tiniest possible increase.” (05:00)
• Consumers are chasing value at off-price retailers—Ross, TJ Maxx—while mid-market department stores struggle.

Mobile’s Overtake

• On Cyber Monday, 57.5% of purchases were via mobile device.
• Zach: “You are largely in front of your computer most of the day. Nonetheless, people were using their phones.” (06:37)
• Mobile facilitates "Buy Now, Pay Later," which is soaring in adoption for holiday purchases.

Personal Shopping Habits

• Rachel: “I bought everything from my phone. I didn't use my desktop at all.” (07:29)

3. Three Tensions Shaping the Season

(1) The “Fragile Shopper” vs. Strong Sales

• Contradictory Narratives:
  • Despite economic headwinds, significant numbers are prepared to take on holiday debt.
  • Zach: “Nearly a third of consumers were prepared and ready to take on debt this season to make their holiday purchases.” (08:22)
  • Gallup survey: expected gift spend dropped $229 from October to November (largest ever drop, surpassing even the financial crisis). (09:16)
• Unit Sales vs. Value:
  • Rachel: “US online shopping rose 3% but there was a 7% jump in average selling price. So people are just paying more. But actually in terms of units sold, it's gone down.” (09:55)
• Nuanced Picture:
  • Affluent consumers spend freely; lower/mid-income consumers pull back—no single shopper experience. (10:35)

(2) Calendar Creep & Budgeting Uncertainty

• Shopping Calendar:
  • Retailers pushed for earlier holiday shopping in October/November. Results: mixed efficacy.
  • Rachel: Early sales had mixed results; maybe it’s time to recentralize promotions around Black Friday/Cyber Monday. (11:48)
• October vs. December Shopping:
  • Zach: “A lot of that October spending is on essentials and to some extent self gifting. November and December—that's when people feel pressed to just like get the gifts.” (12:13)
• No More Bookend Spikes:
  • Susie: “It’s no longer about a bookend calendar and a set fixed budget.” (11:48)

(3) The Impact of AI: Hype vs. Reality

• Big Numbers, Small Base:
  • Salesforce: AI influenced 17% of orders placed during Cyber Week ($13.5B), but most uses are basic (chatbots, rec engines, embedded search). (13:26)
• Consumer Behavior:
  • Zach: “I don’t think most people are thinking of it in terms of I’m using AI—they’re just thinking I’m using search and getting slightly different results.” (14:03)
  • Rachel: “People are starting to experiment… but I don't think we're at that point yet where people are relying on them to make the entire purchase decision.” (14:35)
• Embedded vs. Agentic AI:
  • Many consumers use AI-powered but embedded features (Amazon’s Rufus, etc.), not standalone LLMs or agents.
• Metrics:
  • Visa: 47% of US shoppers used an AI tool for at least one shopping task—impressive, but not yet transformative. (15:21)
• Current Conversion Engine:
  • AI is a shopping guide; social commerce is converting. (16:06)

4. Recommendations & “Time Capsule” Advice for 2026

Rachel (16:44)

• “Make sure your website is optimized to handle an increase in traffic, particularly on mobile.”
• Slow or buggy sites stop shoppers in their tracks.

Zach (17:07)

• “Don’t lose sight of the importance of the Cyber 5… you don’t want to deploy all your very best deals early on. You want to save some for the prime time when consumers are ready and willing and eager to shop.”

Susie (17:39)

• “Have fresh new merchandise and strong offers throughout the season, not just at the beginning.”
• Creative promotions drive engagement, but “steady Eddie wins the race” is critical with a longer, flatter season.
• Human connection matters: “Don’t forget how important people are in the equation…and that human authentic connection will really help drive more sales.” (18:29)

Notable Quotes & Moments

• Susie: “Fresh merchandise goes with the promos. Like you need to have strong offering throughout, make your promotions interesting and make them attractive to consumers.” (17:39)
• Zach: “You have to find promotions that resonate or will potentially resonate with consumers.” (17:52)
• Susie: “Don’t forget how important people are in the equation and that social and stores and that human authentic connection will really help drive more sales.” (18:29)

Summary Table of Important Timestamps

| Timestamp | Topic/Insight | |-----------|-----------------------------------------------------------| | 01:04 | Record-breaking Thanksgiving/Cyber Monday numbers | | 03:51 | TikTok Shop’s emerging sales strength | | 05:00 | Declines in mid-market department store traffic | | 06:37 | Mobile shopping’s overtaking desktop, BNPL rise | | 07:29 | Anecdote: all holiday shopping via mobile | | 08:22 | Contradictions in consumer sentiment and spending | | 09:55 | Growth in spending mostly driven by higher prices | | 10:35 | Shopper experience is not a monolith | | 11:48 | Calendar creep, shifting shopping timelines | | 13:26 | AI’s purported influence on holiday shopping | | 14:03 | Consumers see AI as “just search” | | 16:44 | Practical advice for retailers for 2026 | | 18:29 | Emphasizing the human factor in holiday sales |

Tone

Conversational, analytical, but practical. The hosts and guests mix light personal anecdotes with serious insight, emphasizing the nuances and tensions of the 2025 holiday market—ideal for marketers, retailers, and strategists looking for actionable intelligence and forward-looking guidance.