Podcast Summary:

Behind the Numbers: an EMARKETER Podcast
Episode: What “Winning the Holidays” Actually Looks Like in 2026 | Reimagining Retail
Date: February 18, 2026
Host: Suzy Deva Kenyon
Guests: Zach Stambor, Sky Canafis

Episode Overview

This episode delves into the evolving landscape of holiday retail, using the 2025 holiday season as a lens to forecast 2026 trends. The discussion highlights how consumers shopped and the influence of technology, payments, and channels on purchasing and gift-giving behavior during peak shopping moments. The guests share real data, personal anecdotes about holiday returns, and actionable insights for marketers and retailers looking to “win” the holidays in 2026.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The State of Returns and Changing Consumer Habits

• Personal Return Experiences

  • Zach shared about buying skiing gear online for his kids, noting the challenge of finding the right fit and the inevitability of returns.
    • “That’s the nature of the beast…fit is very important. It just puts into focus how important it is to give consumers clear signs of how something will fit and who it’ll fit.” - Zach Stambor (02:05)
  • Sky discussed returning gifts for others and the growing habit of buying multiple items with the expectation of returning those that don’t work out due to sizing differences and the complexity of children’s growth.

• Return Channels

  • The in-person return channel (e.g., UPS stores) remains crucial amid the growth of online purchases.

2. Holiday 2025: Major Takeaways

• Consumers Chasing Discounts During ‘Cyber 5’
  • “Holiday shoppers turned up for the big discounts, but the Cyber 5 came out strong and actually gained a little bit of share...whereas it had been losing share since it peaked in 2019.” - Sky Canafis (03:43)
• Rise of In-store AI
  • Nearly 20% of shoppers used AI apps and tools in-store during the holidays—a significant trend accelerating omnichannel shopping. (04:03)
• Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) Normalization
  • “BNPL use was up, I think about 10% year over year…over $1 billion on Cyber Monday alone.” - Zach Stambor (04:26)
  • Consumers are leaning on BNPL not just for big-ticket purchases, but smaller items as well—a sign of both widespread adoption and budgeting challenges.
• Spending Slowdown in December
  • While holiday sales remained solid, December showed a downshift in momentum compared to prior years. Retail sales were flat month-over-month, and up just 2.4% year-over-year—indicative of consumers spreading spending earlier and being more budget-conscious. (05:51)
• Emerging Payment Behaviors
  • Growing use of “stored payment cards” as a digital budgeting tool—akin to having cash in a digital wallet. (06:19)
• Channel Agnosticism in Conversion
  • Consumers research products in one place and convert in another, with the entire gamut of online and offline touchpoints in play.

3. 2026 Holiday Outlook & Growth Forecasts

• Muted Growth but Strength in E-Commerce
  • “Holiday retail in 26 will be roughly on par with 2025…came in around 2.5% for the season. For overall ecommerce, [growth] was substantially better at above 6% and we’re expecting a similar level this year as well.” - Sky Canafis (07:22)
• Less Uncertainty
  • 2026 may benefit from less economic and policy uncertainty (tariffs, tax refunds, etc.), leading to more settled consumer behavior.

4. Channel Complexity and Marketing

• Shrinking Department Stores, Growth in Off-Price, Clubs, Pop-ups
  • Store experiences are shifting, with growth in club and off-price channels and more “stand-out” physical retail concepts. (08:47)
• CTV, Social, and Mobile Interplay
  • “Now we see…new channels like CTV for marketing, social for both marketing and selling…understanding consumer behavior across these channels and with second screen behavior.” - Sky Canafis (08:50)

5. Value Beyond Price, Returns, and Gift-Giving Tensions

• Defining Value in a Pressured Economy
  • It’s not just about discounts—retailers must leverage loyalty programs, bundles, exclusive merchandise, and more to communicate value.
    • “Value goes far beyond price…retailers can pull the value lever…at a time when margins are being pressed, retailers should look for ways to communicate value without leaning so heavily on discounts.” - Zach Stambor (10:18)
• The Complexity of Gift-Giving
  • A unique challenge over the holidays is “self-gifting” vs. “gift-giving,” with intentions harder to interpret and target for retailers.
  • AI and personalization present an opportunity but require careful calibration and data integration.

6. Personalization at Scale & Role of AI Assistants

• Work in Progress
  • Achieving meaningful personalization at scale means integrating data across myriad channels and deploying AI to support the customer journey—especially when intent isn’t always clear. (11:45, 12:15)
  • “This is where the apps and AI shopping assistants come in really handy…” - Sky Canafis (12:57)
• Platform-Specific AI vs. Open LLMs
  • Native AI (e.g., Amazon’s Rufus) improves in-retailer experiences, while openness on general platforms (ChatGPT, Gemini) creates new referral opportunities, especially as Amazon remains absent from these spaces for now (14:15).
    • “Now is the time to test, learn, and iterate…Amazon isn’t there so you have an opportunity to make headway and start building a channel.” - Zach Stambor (15:48)
  • AI-driven referral traffic is a small but rapidly growing source and tends to convert better due to higher consumer intent.

7. Social Commerce: TikTok Shop’s Impact

• Platform for Discovery and Full-Funnel Sales
  • “As 2025 progressed…the threat of TikTok being banned in the US faded…retailers or brands that had been holding out finally seized on the holiday opportunity.” - Sky Canafis (17:17)
• Big Numbers & Habit Formation
  • $500 million in GMV on TikTok Shop during Cyber 5 (Black Friday to Cyber Monday), with a 50% year-over-year increase in buyers. (18:42)
  • The tagline “TikTok made me buy it” spoke to consumer trust and confidence in creator recommendations.

8. Strategies to "Win the Holidays" in 2026

Sky Canafis:

• Emphasizes “leaning into AI”—partnerships, new commerce protocols (like Google’s Universal Commerce), and behavioral shifts from search to conversation are paramount.
  • “There’ll be some winners and losers and a bit of a shakeout within the AI commerce space. Brands really have to pay attention to what are their best opportunities within this new commerce channel.” (20:35) Zach Stambor:
• Focus on physical omnichannel advantages—stores (still 80% of sales) offer last-minute convenience, easy exchanges, and differentiated experiences.
  • “The experience of the store…providing something different and distinct…a lot of retailers miss the mark there.” (21:48) Host Suzy Deva Kenyon:
• Reminds retailers not to overlook operational fundamentals—seamless backend, fulfillment, and trust are critical to maintaining and growing consumer confidence. (22:33)

Memorable Quotes

• “Returns are in. Holiday dust is settled.” – Suzy Deva Kenyon (03:14)
• “BNPL use was up…I think about 10% year over year…it’s just a clear sign of the normalization of this payment method.” – Zach Stambor (04:26)
• “Nearly a fifth of shoppers were using AI apps and tools while shopping in physical stores during the holidays this year, which seems pretty significant.” – Sky Canafis (03:43)
• “Value goes far beyond price and there are so many different ways that retailers can pull the value lever…” – Zach Stambor (10:18)
• “A broader behavioral change from search to conversation that’s also taking place in Google.” – Sky Canafis (21:44)
• “People are shopping across all different channels and all different tools…and LLMs can send you to social.” – Suzy Deva Kenyon (16:17)
• “$500 million in GMV on TikTok Shop during Black Friday to Cyber Monday…a 50% increase in buyers.” – Zach Stambor (18:42)

Key Timestamps

• 00:05-03:43 — Introduction, personal return stories
• 03:43-04:21 — Major 2025 holiday takeaways: Cyber 5’s strength, AI in shopping
• 04:26-05:44 — BNPL growth and December spending slowdown
• 05:51-06:56 — Evolving payment methods and multi-channel conversions
• 07:22-08:47 — 2026 holiday forecast and the effect of economic uncertainty
• 08:47-09:51 — Channel complexity, omnichannel strategies
• 09:51-11:45 — Value, trading down, gift-giving tensions, and personalization
• 12:57-15:48 — AI assistants, platform-native and general LLM integrations
• 16:17-19:39 — Social commerce (TikTok Shop), creator trust, habit formation
• 20:35-22:33 — Strategies for 2026: AI, physical retail, operational excellence

Final Takeaways

• Winning the holidays in 2026 requires:
  • Strategic adoption and experimentation with AI (both in-app and platform-agnostic).
  • Mastery of omnichannel experience and physical store advantages.
  • Embracing new commerce protocols and partners as digital retail converges with conversational commerce.
  • Not losing sight of operational basics that underpin trust and satisfaction.
  • Meeting the consumer where they are—across payments, platforms, and touchpoints—and delivering flexible, personalized, and trustworthy shopping experiences.

This summary captures the essential themes, actionable insights, and standout moments from the episode, providing a roadmap for retailers aiming to thrive in the complex, AI-powered, omnichannel landscape of holiday 2026 and beyond.