Behind the Numbers: Why It Will Be Hard for FMNs to Play the Same Game as Other Commerce Media Folks

Episode Release Date: August 12, 2025
Podcast: Behind the Numbers: The Banking & Payments Show by eMarketer
Host: Rob Rubin
Guests: Sarah Marzano (Principal Commerce Media Analyst) and Max Willins (Senior Analyst, Advertising and Media Team)

Introduction

In the 59th episode of Behind the Numbers, host Rob Rubin delves into the burgeoning landscape of financial media networks (FMNs) and explores the unique challenges they face in the competitive realm of commerce media. Joining Rubin are eMarketer's principal commerce media analyst, Sarah Marzano, and senior analyst on the advertising and media team, Max Willins. The discussion centers on the promising growth projections for FMNs, their current positioning against retail media giants, and the hurdles they must overcome to scale effectively.

Story by Numbers: Forecasting Growth in FMNs

Rob Rubin begins the conversation by highlighting two pivotal figures:

• $1.78 billion: Projected ad revenue for financial media networks by 2027, marking a significant increase from the $0.64 billion forecasted for the current year.
• $92.24 billion: Expected total commerce media ad revenue by 2027.

"If you look at the $1.78 billion, it's less than 2% of the total," Rubin explains (03:02), emphasizing the relatively nascent stage of FMNs in the broader commerce media ecosystem.

Key Players in FMNs: Sarah Marzano identifies the diverse array of participants in the FMN space, including:

• Traditional financial institutions like Chase (Chase Media Network)
• Payment transaction providers such as PayPal
• Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) leaders like Klarna establishing their commerce media businesses

Advertisers on Financial Media Networks

Max Willins discusses the current landscape of advertisers utilizing FMNs:

"At the moment the answer is affiliate marketers for in a lot of cases," Max notes (04:20), explaining that agencies like Chase, which acquired Fig to facilitate card-linked offers, attract a variety of advertisers ranging from restaurants to Apple.

Sarah adds, "The advertisers on financial media networks are going to look different because it's not just individual brands who these institutions are courting. It could be the retailers themselves," (05:50), underscoring the unique positioning of FMNs compared to traditional retail media networks.

Data Advantage and Market Positioning

Max highlights the unparalleled depth and variety of data that FMNs possess:

"The depth and variety of data that they sit on, the picture that they can paint of their users is unparalleled," he states (08:36). He contrasts this with platforms like Amazon, which, despite their vast product range, cannot offer the same granular insights into consumer behaviors outside of shopping.

Sarah reinforces the significance of FMNs:

"It's not a super crowded playing field," she remarks (10:45), noting that unlike retail media, where over 50 networks vie for ad spend, FMNs have a more consolidated and manageable landscape, allowing for more focused growth and innovation.

Challenges Faced by Financial Media Networks

Despite their potential, FMNs confront several substantial challenges:

1. Personalization and User Intent: Sarah explains, "The ability to create highly personalized offers is not the same as being good at it now," (07:11). Unlike retail media, where consumers are already in a shopping mindset, FMN users may not have immediate purchase intent, making effective personalization crucial but difficult.

2. Regulatory Hurdles and Data Sensitivity: "These players positioning themselves as commerce media networks brings them into the same conversation obviously as retail media networks," Sarah observes (17:49). The sensitive nature of financial data imposes strict regulatory constraints, limiting the ease with which FMNs can expand and collaborate.

3. Scale and Competition: Max points out, "There is a real kind of inventory scale problem that most of these players are butting up against already," (16:39), indicating that achieving the necessary scale to compete with retail giants like Amazon remains a significant hurdle.

4. User Experience and Trust: Sarah expresses skepticism about autonomous agentic shopping initiatives, highlighting the risk of eroding consumer trust if such systems fail (20:17). Maintaining credibility is paramount for financial institutions, making extensive automation a contentious strategy.

Future Outlook: Growth Trajectory and Innovation

In the final segment, Rubin and his guests debate whether FMNs will continue to grow rapidly post-2027 or remain a minor player within the commerce media space.

Max asserts that, in the near to medium term, FMNs will likely see faster growth than overall commerce media but will remain a smaller segment due to:

• "Inventory scale problems," (16:39)
• "Data heterogeneity issues," and
• "Unique and differentiated data that may not significantly divert budgets from retail media giants."

Sarah concurs, emphasizing that while FMNs possess valuable transaction data, "the expectations that these advertisers have around the performance of these investments... is going to create a considerable challenge," (17:49). Advertiser fatigue and the crowded media landscape further complicate FMNs' ability to capture substantial market share.

Rob, however, remains optimistic about the potential for FMNs to leverage their data for superior lookalike models and integrations with DSPs, potentially addressing scale and targeting issues through innovative solutions like clean room environments.

Conclusion

The episode concludes with a balanced view of FMNs' prospects. While financial media networks demonstrate significant growth potential and hold a unique data advantage, they must navigate complex challenges related to personalization, regulation, scale, and maintaining consumer trust. Sarah Marzano and Max Willins provide insightful perspectives on how FMNs can carve out their niche in the competitive commerce media landscape, highlighting both the opportunities and obstacles that lie ahead.

"I'm not seeing offers or promotions that are incentivizing me to take action I wasn't already taking," Sarah concludes (22:46), underscoring the critical path FMNs must tread to transform user behavior and achieve sustained success.

Notable Quotes:

• "The depth and variety of data that they sit on, the picture that they can paint of their users is unparalleled." — Max Willins (08:36)
• "The ability to create highly personalized offers is not the same as being good at it now." — Sarah Marzano (07:11)
• "It's not a super crowded playing field." — Sarah Marzano (10:45)
• "These players positioning themselves as commerce media networks brings them into the same conversation... as retail media networks." — Sarah Marzano (17:49)

This detailed exploration provides marketers, retailers, and advertisers with a comprehensive understanding of the current state and future prospects of financial media networks within the evolving digital media landscape.