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Rob Rubin
Unlock more growth with awin. Tackle acquisition, conversions and retention by tapping into a network of over a million affiliate partners with everything from partner management to reporting and payments in one easy dashboard, AWIN helps brands drive real scalable results. Visit awin.comemarketer to learn more. Hello everyone and welcome to the Banking and Payments Show, a Behind the Numbers podcast from eMarketer. Today is August 12, 2025. I'm Rob Rubin, head of business development at eMarketer and your host. Today we're going to talk about the promise and challenges financial media networks face in the burgeoning commerce media network landscape. Joining me today are principal commerce media analysts Sarah Marzano and Max Willins, a senior analyst on our advertising and media team. Hey there Sarah and Max. How you doing?
Max Willins
Yeah, thanks for having us.
Sarah Marzano
I'm good. Thanks for having me.
Rob Rubin
Yeah, I'm so happy to have you guys. I pointed out earlier it's our 59th banking and payment show and it's the first time either of you have been on. So I'm super excited and I'm trying.
Sarah Marzano
Not to take it personally.
Rob Rubin
Right, well, we're hitting on a topic for you. Right. I don't think you would have like.
Sarah Marzano
A lot my way into this space.
Rob Rubin
Like I don't think you would have liked a lot. Like some of the payments topics I think are interesting. You might not have love them but I wanted to let the audience get to know you a little bit more and have some fun with a little icebreaker. True. False. So you can each give me your answer. But true or false? Fintechs now control nearly half of all US personal loan debt.
Max Willins
I think that's true or false.
Sarah Marzano
False.
Max Willins
Yeah. Really?
Sarah Marzano
Personality.
Max Willins
I was expecting like a boxers or brief sort of thing.
Sarah Marzano
We're just going to erode our own credibility as guests on this podcast right out of the gate.
Rob Rubin
So it's true. Fintechs hold 49% of all US personal loan debt compared to just 22% for banks. True or false? About one in four consumers say their bank can anticipate their needs.
Max Willins
I guess I'll also say true.
Rob Rubin
That is right. Only 22% of consumers say their bank can anticipate their needs. Yeah, we'll get more of that later. True or false? Trust in Apple for financial services has declined over the past year.
Sarah Marzano
I'm just going to go with false to keep it interesting.
Rob Rubin
You are correct, Sarah. It is false. Trust in Apple actually increased from 13.9% to 19 point.
Max Willins
Is that surprising then that because the bank that underwrites their Their banking business is changing, isn't it? Goldman?
Rob Rubin
I think it is funny, but we've always. It's the question about trusting Apple, you know, I don't think a lot of companies know who the underwriter is or think about it that way. That was fun. You guys were.
Sarah Marzano
Yeah, I guess we need a winner.
Rob Rubin
So competitive. Let's get right to our first segment, Story by numbers. In Story by Numbers, I pick a few numbers to help us frame the topic. And today my first number is 1.78 billion. And this is our forecast for 2027 ad revenue to financial media networks. That's a lot. To put that in perspective, this year we forecast financial media network ad revenue at 0.64 billion. So not even a billion. So the growth is like 3x over the next two years and I think we should start there. Sarah, who are the players in the game that are getting all this?
Sarah Marzano
Yeah, so it's a fascinating question to answer. This is a really nascent space, so there aren't many players that make up this cohort of fmns and they represent a really diverse array of types of financial companies. So you have everyone from traditional financial institutions like Chase who have their Chase Media network to payment transaction providers like PayPal as well as the Buy now pay leaders like Klarna who have set up commerce media businesses.
Rob Rubin
Max, who would want to advertise on these platforms?
Max Willins
Well, at the moment the answer is affiliate marketers for in a lot of cases, I think a little bit about. So a couple of years ago, Chase bought a company called Fig that was sort of designed to facilitate card LinkedIn offers and which is a small but important slice of the affiliate marketing ecosystem. And so a lot of the sort of ads that you see when you pop open your Chase app, for example, are sort of there because of an old relationship between Fig and an advertiser. And it's, it's a, it's a very diverse set of advertisers. Right? I mean, you know, you can find restaurants, you can find Apple, you can find luggage companies, find groceries, apparel. There you go. And then to speak to Sarah's point, what I think what is so interesting about this space is that you also have a completely different sort of base of advertisers for PayPal ads, for example. Right. I mean, you have people that want to tap into their data. You also too, I think there's over the near to medium term an opportunity for PayPal's, I guess, merchants as an endemic category to do some advertising there. So one of the things That I think is going to help PayPal grow so quickly is that they spent long kind of quixotic period trying to deepen their services relationship with the merchants that they served. And those kind of inroads I think might help turn those folks into advertisers as well. So the answer at the moment is kind of a little bit of everybody, but everybody is spending just a little without being too cute about it.
Sarah Marzano
Yeah, I like the way you put that and I think you teed up a good point which is this important sort of distinction. It can be very tempting to look at every commerce media player as someone who's in direct competition with retail media. But the advertisers on financial media networks are going to look different because it's not just individual brands who these institutions are courting. Right. It could be the retailers themselves. And I know we'll get into this, but for, for the retailers there is the access to the data around that cross merchant shopping that's really appealing. So I always use the example like Macy's and Nordstrom. If you're Nordstrom and you want to make sure you're getting in front of someone who's a regular Macy shopper but.
Rob Rubin
Doesn'T shop with you, very additive conquesting.
Sarah Marzano
That'S an exciting opportunity. Financial media networks can provide it.
Rob Rubin
Bring to the point in our little true false is that only 22% of consumers think banks are good at anticipating their needs. So why will banks be good at that? Like the affiliate thing, it's sort of like they, it's, you know, I sort of went through it feels a little bit like they're just throwing spaghetti against the wall. It's like, yeah, you want to, we'll give 10% off anybody who clicks through. And that's an, that's a always on campaign. That's not the same thing as running Omnichannel retail media campaign.
Sarah Marzano
Yeah. And I think that's one of the biggest challenges that these players face. I think the ability to create highly personalized offers is not the same as being good at it now. And I think one of the biggest challenges here, especially because if you think about the way consumers are interacting with these companies, it's not necessarily with a high purchase intent. Right. If you think about why you're opening up your credit card app, it's probably not with shopping in mind. And the reason I bring that up is because it increases the necessity of creating offers that feel so personalized that it drives someone to take an action that they weren't necessarily planning on taking.
Max Willins
Yeah, I was. I love that question and the true false thing only because I prefer not to think that my bank is trying to anticipate my needs. I just want them to, you know, allow me to pile up points so that I can go on a vacation every once in a while. But I think Sarah summarized the challenge that's in front of them.
Rob Rubin
We'll get back to that too. Piling up points. That's a point that I want to get back to in terms of consumer behavior when we get to our next segment. But I wanted to throw a second number out, which is 92.24 billion, giant number. And it's our forecast for commerce media in the same year that we've been talking about 2027. So if you look at the 1.78 billion, it's less than 2% of the total. So it gets to what we've been talking about. If that's the case, why are financial media networks so important to understand?
Max Willins
Well, I think Sarah did a good job of laying it out, but I'll, I'll steal some of her points and just sort of say that they, they from a data standpoint, in terms of the depth and variety of data that they sit on, the picture that they can paint of their users is, is pretty unparalleled. Right? I mean, even Amazon, which sells one of almost everything, probably multiple kinds of everything, can't provide full visibility into, you know, the things a person does to entertain themselves, where they go, when they travel, you know, what kinds of coffee they get in the morning. And a financial institution can absolutely provide that, that level of granularity and information. And so as advertisers continue to look to get smarter about who they target, how they find incremental customers, understanding all that stuff, that makes financial media networks kind of a uniquely attractive partner. And they also happen too, to be a partner that doesn't, isn't necessarily tied into a relationship that you might have as part of a joint business plan. If you're a CPG company, it allows you to sort of play a wider field potentially, and that makes them, I think, potentially quite attractive. But I'm sure Sarah's got more on that as well.
Sarah Marzano
I mean, I think one of the things I was going to say is that you're absolutely right that when you put those two numbers against one another, it can be really easy to be tempted to say like, okay, this is a tiny drop in the bucket. It's almost inconsequential. But I think it's important to point out that Amazon drives the overwhelming majority of that $92 billion. They have 40% E Commerce share in retail in the United States. And because that's where most of retail media ad spending is concentrated today, AMAZ sort of tilts the scales in a way that almost can take away our understanding of the landscape overall. Max, in your latest commerce media report you did a really great sort of visualization where you took the Amazon sort of out of the picture and maybe even Walmart and looked at the rest of the retail media.
Rob Rubin
16% is the rest.
Sarah Marzano
Yes.
Rob Rubin
Amazon is 77%. Walmart is like 7% and then everybody else is the difference.
Sarah Marzano
Yeah, but Max, you sort of took the dollar amount and backed out the two retail media giants science and did a really great job showcasing that the rest of retail media compared to the non retail verticals within commerce media are actually quite comparable. And I think what's really interesting if you take into context financial media specifically is this is not a super crowded playing field. And that's really different than the rest of retail media where you've got this long tail of more than 50 networks here in the United States vying for that ad spend. So I think if you put some of those things into context, paired with the growth rate as financial media builds on a relatively small base and the things they can do that retailers can't, which we've touched on, those are the reasons that we are endeavoring to really keep track of what's going on in the space and what the opportunities.
Rob Rubin
But it's not for all financial institutions. In other words, this is going to probably be the, like UC Chase and PayPal. I can see Amex, I can see MasterCard, MasterCard, Visa, B of A. Yep. Wells, they might have a trust issue, but Wells, you know, I can see the big ones, maybe even Citi.
Sarah Marzano
Yeah, there's plenty of players kind of waiting in the wings.
Rob Rubin
And like I don't think like, like the little, the regional banks, Huntington Bank, I don't know about that. Right. I don't think the little banks are going to have enough scale.
Max Willins
Yeah, I think that that's 100%. Right. I mean especially when you're talking about, you know, leading with scale of data it all of a sudden if you're you know, like a tiny little regional credit union, this starts looking like a fool's errand pretty quick if you're thinking about whether or not to get into it. And that's one way that this is different from the way things might look if you're say a mid sized you know, specialty retailer where you might over time be tempted to sort of join some sort of larger network and, you know, cede control of it. But that's why you're seeing so much more adoption within retail media relative to financial media.
Rob Rubin
I wonder if the smaller institutions might join together to create like a network, like credit union network, media network.
Sarah Marzano
I think that's possible. I think that it's going to hinge on the data portability and the way that they can safely do this considering they're dealing with data that's highly regulated and pretty sensitive in nature.
Rob Rubin
Yeah, I was going to ask this question. Given that they have all this relevant information, why don't they have a bigger share? And I was going to sort of posit that it's sort of the challenges of regulatory challenges of, you know, disclosing sort of certain information, the creepiness factor of being that on target, especially in certain categories maybe.
Sarah Marzano
Yeah, I think that's certainly a big part of it. And I think that gets us back to what's so interesting about the fact that the players in this space are really diverse because someone like PayPal has data that's a bit less sensitive than a traditional financial institution. And that may be why we've seen PayPal launch its off site efforts relatively quickly compared to the launch of their network. But backing up a second, I think one of the biggest limitations for these players is again that lack of high purchase intent that their users are going to have. And that's what's really propelled retail media to success, is being able to show an ad to a consumer who's in a shopping mindset in an environment where they're planning on completing that transaction. And financial institutions just don't have that. I think one exception would be the Buy Now Pay Laters which have sort of built their apps around a shopping sort of interface. I think we're seeing other players endeavor to fortify their owned and operated properties with more commerce oriented experiences. But that's an uphill battle when it comes to thinking through any trade offs to user experience and really consumer habits, which can be quite deeply ingrained.
Rob Rubin
I think that we're going to start to get into our final segment. In our final segment, for argument's sake, we're going to argue nicely about whether financial media networks will remain a sliver of commerce media advertising overall or is the growth trajectory really post 2027 going to continue to outpace other categories. And I think both of you, you can clarify for us. I think both of you take the position that given Some of the challenges that it has and the opportunities that it's going to grow probably larger than it's going to continue to grow at a faster pace than commerce media overall after 2027. But it's not probably going to be like a primary channel for the big spending advertisers. Did I get that?
Max Willins
I think so.
Sarah Marzano
So I'm happy to take on that side of the debate for this exercise.
Rob Rubin
You don't 100%.
Max Willins
Well, I'll lead out with definitely saying over the, let's call it near to medium term. I think that that's right. And a lot of it is due to stuff that we've mentioned or you know, hinted at already. Right. I mean there is a real kind of inventory scale problem that most of these players are butting up against already. And there's also, as Sarah's mentioned, this sort of, you know, data heterogeneity issue is going to constrain some players but empower others. And then also there's, there's just the simple limiting factor of the data is that some of these guys sit on is definitely unique and differentiated. But is it so much more unique and so much more differentiated that to get to that state that you described earlier means probably taking some money away from retail media or taking some money away from Google or taking some money away from Meta. And I, I don't think that that's really what I see down the path a little bit. But I'm excited to hear what you guys have to say about it.
Sarah Marzano
I will completely agree and I we've been given the task of ganging up on Rob here. So one of the things that you said really hits home for me, which is just that these players positioning themselves as commerce media networks sort of brings them into the same conversation obviously as retail media networks. And if you're courting the same advertisers, there are a set of expectations that these advertisers have around the performance of these investments that I think is going to be really difficult for the financial players as they stand today to meet. Right. And that is going to create a considerable challenge, particularly when we're talking about a cohort of advertisers that are already reporting being fatigued and overwhelmed by the sheer number of choice that they have within this really crowded landscape and the, the difficulty and friction that can occur with scaling their spend across even more commerce media network. So I think it's both sort of a strength positioning themselves that way because they do have access to really exciting transaction data that can be Quite broad in nature, but it's also something that's going to set themselves up with a really uphill battle in terms of satisfying what advertisers have become accustomed to when they work with retailers.
Rob Rubin
So here's where I fall on it. If I were to think about like somebody that has a Chase credit card and they, they're using Chase, it's their primary card. So Chase is seeing what they're doing. They have quite a bit of information. I feel like they, as advertisers start to scale out more, as clean room environments start to grow and usage of clean room environments, I can see Chase being able to build lookalike models that are going to be superior to other predictive models because they, they have such specific information about spending habits and capabilities. So for one, I think that, that some of the financial institutions could actually be a marketplace for quite accurate lookalike models on DSPs potentially if they have scale. So I feel like that could address some scale issues. Not necessarily on site, but certainly with off site social capabilities they can probably Chase and with their reach they, they might be able to look alike models, compete in that way. The other thing is I, I think there's going to be innovations that are going to change how people shop and we were sort of slacking on this the other day. I, I think that the credit cards are going to come out with the, the agents because it's going to be on site, they're going to be able to leverage sort of your behavior and, and really figure that out.
Sarah Marzano
We do an entire other podcast and hopefully we do have one in the works around the viability around true autonomous agentic shopping. Right. Because I hear there's a ton of really strong opinions Amongst folks at eMarketer on that. I'm a bit of a skeptic that this is going to take off in a truly autonomous way. I think it is very easy for something to go wrong in a way that erodes trust. And I think financial institutions are really married to maintaining the trust and credibility that they've built up. Right. And we've seen what happens when that goes awry and how difficult it can be to sort of regain that. And so I think we'll need to see a lot of progress from the perspective of something more autonomous like agentic led shopping for that to really take off. It's certainly a possibility down the line, but I don't personally see it taking off without a fair amount of oversight by the consumer in the near term.
Max Willins
Yeah. And I think that there's this in a kind of structural way, a misalignment there where I feel like we've talked about Chase a disproportionate amount, but maybe it's just because I have one of their cards in my wallet. But they have already sort of sought to position themselves as like a shopping partner. Like, they have a commerce toolbar that you can install in Chrome that will kind of, you know, tell you when things are on sale and stuff like that. You know, that's an easy way for them to vacuum up affiliate marketers budgets. But if they were to build one of these things and say, hey, Max, we've built this agent that will help buy things for you. The things that I'm going to want that agent to do are things that sort of fly against what the advertisers want. So maybe I'm looking at a pair of pants on, you know, some website and I go, you know, I like these, but I don't really want to buy, pay full price. I want you to buy these for me, but wait until there's a discount of at least, you know, 25%. An advertiser doesn't want to.
Rob Rubin
I don't think that aligns to consumer behavior in that regard because I think consumers, they're more immediate. Okay, and I'm going to pull your points argument back now. So say you want 25% and that's you, and you're going to wait for it. But if somebody who is interested in that pants and says, hey, that's there's 10% and points towards the vacation I'm trying to save for, right? Like it's a double thing. They save some money and then on their statements, Chase can show them how much money they've saved them.
Sarah Marzano
I think you guys are hitting on like sort of the crux of the issue, right? Which is that it is a harder thing to do. But I think it's what advertisers want and what the financial institutions want is to be able to influence user behavior before, before they reach sort of the bottom of the funnel. But it takes a much more thoughtful sort of combination of offers and incentives which can be quite hard to sort of thread the needle on. Right. And I think that's what sort of remains to be seen is, you know, when I look at the offers on some of these players and it goes back to the, you know, true false question from earlier around, whether or not these players can predict sort of my needs. I'm not saying seeing things that jump out at me and I'm not Picking on Chase specifically here I'm sort of talking more broadly. I'm not seeing offers or promotions that are incentivizing me to take action I wasn't already taking. Right. And I think that is going to be what sort of what these players need to move in the direction of and in order to find success.
Max Willins
I think though, what's interesting and this is something that's, you know, speculative and I, I think I would probably bet against it as a, you know, an outcome. But it is, I think extant as a possibility which is that, you know, every generation shops differently on the Internet and every generation banks differently. And you know, as generation Alpha I guess is maybe the next cohort that's going to become card owners. You know, there is no kind of like received wisdom or sort of tradition that a new generation of banking consumers adopt. They just, when they get a credit card, they open that app for the first time and they go, huh, what's this? And if over that time enough progress has been made that a chase or a PayPal or even a Klarna, if you open up for the first time, can really kind of effectively communicate that anytime you want there's this bizarre of value and stuff that over time will really speak to you, just waiting for you anytime you open this app up. I could see that very chemo. Exactly. I mean, I think so much about, I think that for now the banks are going to want to project a sort of premium aura which would preclude them doing stuff like that. But I think that, you know, maybe a Neo bank could start a kind of like, you know, young consumers oriented thing and maybe they do partner with like a Temu or a Sheehan and say, look at all these cheap schmatzes you can get for, you know, no money at all customer.
Rob Rubin
It seems more likely that they would like a bank when you talk about premium, would, would more likely try to go after the affluent and mass affluent segment because they can access them and the advertisers will pay a premium for that. And they also make a premium on the interchange because those folks get the high end cards and the retailers pay more money when those cards get swiped.
Max Willins
Yep.
Sarah Marzano
One thing I want to mention and one thing that I do have some optimism around, and Max, you alluded to it earlier, is that PayPal have announced some really interesting initiatives to actually work directly with their merchant partners to secure ad inventory on retailer and merchant websites, helping advertisers target which retailers they're seeing their share potentially decline. And I think that sort of marriage of being able to secure really valuable inventory on websites where we know it works quite well is a really exciting opportunity and I'm interested to see sort of how that develops from PayPal.
Rob Rubin
I have to say that we were very nice to each other and I don't feel like we debated at all.
Max Willins
Well, I want to come back for the 75th anniversary episode.
Sarah Marzano
Yeah, the 75th one.
Rob Rubin
The we're all. I'm gonna have like, can we have like a big podcast with all of the brawl, all the guests? We'll try to do that. Thank you guys so much.
Max Willins
Had a good time.
Rob Rubin
Yeah, really thank you and thank everyone for listening to the banking and payment show. Also, thank you to our studio team that puts these episodes together. Our next episode is on September 16, so be sure to check it out. Thank you. See you then.
Max Willins
Bye.
Rob Rubin
Bye.
Sarah Marzano
Bye.
Behind the Numbers: Why It Will Be Hard for FMNs to Play the Same Game as Other Commerce Media Folks
Episode Release Date: August 12, 2025
Podcast: Behind the Numbers: The Banking & Payments Show by eMarketer
Host: Rob Rubin
Guests: Sarah Marzano (Principal Commerce Media Analyst) and Max Willins (Senior Analyst, Advertising and Media Team)
In the 59th episode of Behind the Numbers, host Rob Rubin delves into the burgeoning landscape of financial media networks (FMNs) and explores the unique challenges they face in the competitive realm of commerce media. Joining Rubin are eMarketer's principal commerce media analyst, Sarah Marzano, and senior analyst on the advertising and media team, Max Willins. The discussion centers on the promising growth projections for FMNs, their current positioning against retail media giants, and the hurdles they must overcome to scale effectively.
Rob Rubin begins the conversation by highlighting two pivotal figures:
"If you look at the $1.78 billion, it's less than 2% of the total," Rubin explains (03:02), emphasizing the relatively nascent stage of FMNs in the broader commerce media ecosystem.
Key Players in FMNs: Sarah Marzano identifies the diverse array of participants in the FMN space, including:
Max Willins discusses the current landscape of advertisers utilizing FMNs:
"At the moment the answer is affiliate marketers for in a lot of cases," Max notes (04:20), explaining that agencies like Chase, which acquired Fig to facilitate card-linked offers, attract a variety of advertisers ranging from restaurants to Apple.
Sarah adds, "The advertisers on financial media networks are going to look different because it's not just individual brands who these institutions are courting. It could be the retailers themselves," (05:50), underscoring the unique positioning of FMNs compared to traditional retail media networks.
Max highlights the unparalleled depth and variety of data that FMNs possess:
"The depth and variety of data that they sit on, the picture that they can paint of their users is unparalleled," he states (08:36). He contrasts this with platforms like Amazon, which, despite their vast product range, cannot offer the same granular insights into consumer behaviors outside of shopping.
Sarah reinforces the significance of FMNs:
"It's not a super crowded playing field," she remarks (10:45), noting that unlike retail media, where over 50 networks vie for ad spend, FMNs have a more consolidated and manageable landscape, allowing for more focused growth and innovation.
Despite their potential, FMNs confront several substantial challenges:
Personalization and User Intent: Sarah explains, "The ability to create highly personalized offers is not the same as being good at it now," (07:11). Unlike retail media, where consumers are already in a shopping mindset, FMN users may not have immediate purchase intent, making effective personalization crucial but difficult.
Regulatory Hurdles and Data Sensitivity: "These players positioning themselves as commerce media networks brings them into the same conversation obviously as retail media networks," Sarah observes (17:49). The sensitive nature of financial data imposes strict regulatory constraints, limiting the ease with which FMNs can expand and collaborate.
Scale and Competition: Max points out, "There is a real kind of inventory scale problem that most of these players are butting up against already," (16:39), indicating that achieving the necessary scale to compete with retail giants like Amazon remains a significant hurdle.
User Experience and Trust: Sarah expresses skepticism about autonomous agentic shopping initiatives, highlighting the risk of eroding consumer trust if such systems fail (20:17). Maintaining credibility is paramount for financial institutions, making extensive automation a contentious strategy.
In the final segment, Rubin and his guests debate whether FMNs will continue to grow rapidly post-2027 or remain a minor player within the commerce media space.
Max asserts that, in the near to medium term, FMNs will likely see faster growth than overall commerce media but will remain a smaller segment due to:
Sarah concurs, emphasizing that while FMNs possess valuable transaction data, "the expectations that these advertisers have around the performance of these investments... is going to create a considerable challenge," (17:49). Advertiser fatigue and the crowded media landscape further complicate FMNs' ability to capture substantial market share.
Rob, however, remains optimistic about the potential for FMNs to leverage their data for superior lookalike models and integrations with DSPs, potentially addressing scale and targeting issues through innovative solutions like clean room environments.
The episode concludes with a balanced view of FMNs' prospects. While financial media networks demonstrate significant growth potential and hold a unique data advantage, they must navigate complex challenges related to personalization, regulation, scale, and maintaining consumer trust. Sarah Marzano and Max Willins provide insightful perspectives on how FMNs can carve out their niche in the competitive commerce media landscape, highlighting both the opportunities and obstacles that lie ahead.
"I'm not seeing offers or promotions that are incentivizing me to take action I wasn't already taking," Sarah concludes (22:46), underscoring the critical path FMNs must tread to transform user behavior and achieve sustained success.
Notable Quotes:
This detailed exploration provides marketers, retailers, and advertisers with a comprehensive understanding of the current state and future prospects of financial media networks within the evolving digital media landscape.