Critical Darlings: One Battle After Another And Oscar Predictions with David Sims

Summary

Podcast Summary: "Critical Darlings: One Battle After Another & Oscar Predictions"

Podcast: Blank Check with Griffin & David
Date: March 12, 2026
Hosts: Griffin Newman, David Sims, with Allison Wilmore, Richard Lawson
Producer: Ben Hosley
Special Focus: Awards Season dissection, deep dive into Best Picture contender "One Battle After Another," and exhaustive Oscar predictions

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Episode Overview

This episode of "Critical Darlings" converges around Oscars season fatigue, the wild swings of online discourse, a close reading of Paul Thomas Anderson's "One Battle After Another" (the presumed Best Picture frontrunner), and intricate Oscar ballot predictions. Hosts and guests express both exhaustion and delight in how the awards discourse shapes perceptions—and frequently warps them—around the films and performances of the year.

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I. Awards Season Fatigue & Discourse Madness

Timestamps: 00:49–06:00

• The panel is collectively “a little worse for the wear,” citing the protracted Oscar schedule and the fever pitch of online discourse.
• Quote [01:27, Allison Wilmore]: “Oscar season too long madness… there have been various very bad discourses about various nominees."
• They debate whether controversies (like Timothée Chalamet’s "opera/ballet" comments) are organic or strategically planted “hit jobs” with awards implications.
• They reflect on the legacy of Weinstein-era “oppo research,” now a mainstay of Oscar narrative suspicion.
• “Norbiting” (releasing an embarrassing project right before Oscar voting) is discussed, contextualizing worries that stray narratives derail frontrunners despite the fact that voting deadlines often insulate awards from last-minute public storms.
• The group laughs at the absurdity of post-nomination "discourse hell":
  Quote [01:59, Richard Lawson]: “It’s like in Grand Theft Auto, if you commit one too many crimes, all the police are on you… every single thing about this year’s Oscars causes huge controversy.”

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II. Origin and Thematic Core of "One Battle After Another"

Timestamps: 12:44–24:50

• "One Battle After Another" is explicitly positioned as this year’s likely Best Picture winner.
• The film's critical and awards momentum is detailed: sweeping precursors (DGA, PGA, etc.) and consensus-building strength.
• The hosts analyze its thematic resonance with current events, noting its increased relevance as politics and society have shifted.
  • The film’s ambiguous timeline (present-day/near-future) and its reflection of present anxieties (state violence, protest, generational struggle).
• Quote [14:49, Allison Wilmore]: “For a large part of the movie, they… kill people, they, you know, grab people off the streets without any pretense really. …Ok, we live in that now.”

Allegory & Adaptation:

• The story adapts 1990’s "Vineland" by Thomas Pynchon, relating its generational cycles of activism from Reagan’s America to the present.
• The group discusses a New York Times op-ed critiquing the film's intentionally nonspecific, generationally "mutating" activism, ultimately defending PTA’s broad but deeply observed allegorical approach.
• Themes: fluctuating forms of resistance, the commodification/erosion of zeal, the difficulty and necessity of hope.

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III. Character Analysis & Performances (with Special Emphasis on Revolutionary Archetypes)

Timestamps: 24:50–34:53

• Multi-faceted revolutionary characters:
  • Perfidia (Teyana Taylor): Complex, simultaneously driven by ideals and self-preservation; suffers postpartum depression.
    Quote [32:09, Allison Wilmore]: “I feel like it is so explicit that Perfidion is dealing with postpartum depression and that just, like, was taken off the table.”
  • Bob (Leonardo DiCaprio): Not heroic, more a burnt-out, floundering fool, whose actions (or inaction) gently subvert the notion of the resolute leader.
• The film’s approach to "informing" (snitching under duress) is empathetic, emphasizing the real, personal limits of revolutionary purity.
• The spectrum of activism and privilege: generational, racial, and gender divides in commitment and vulnerability.

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IV. Satire, World-Building, and the “Christmas Adventurers”

Timestamps: 21:24–24:50

• The film's antagonists—the "Christmas Adventurers"—embody fossilized, white supremacist entitlement. Satirical details (fixations with chicken fingers, jargon about “haters," microaggressions) cement its sense of tragic farce.
• Its allusiveness, humor, and verve in art direction and side-performances earn comparisons to PTA’s classics.

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V. Oscar Frontrunner Conversation & Industry Dynamics

Timestamps: 38:54–45:15

• Analysis of “old-fashioned” Oscar appeal vs. modern context:
  Quote [39:18, David Sims]: "This is a weird movie. I don’t see this movie winning 20 years ago in the same, like, with the same ease. I don’t know.”
• Parallels are drawn to “No Country for Old Men” and recent director “arrivals” for Oscar acceptance (Nolan, Coens, now Anderson).
• Generational anxieties—about getting “washed”—inform both the film and the mood among Academy voters.

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VI. Leonardo DiCaprio: Oscar History and Persona

Timestamps: 45:09–56:13

• Extended discussion of Leo’s “blank slate” persona, child-star origins, the "Pussy Posse” years, and his gradual transition to respected leading man.
• The Academy’s complicated, at times dismissive, relationship to DiCaprio—from snubs (notably “Titanic”) to his belated, hard-won Oscar for “The Revenant.”
• Whether Leo’s privacy/self-protective strategy is rooted in his tumultuous 90s public life.
• Meta-discussion: how DiCaprio both fits into and subtly resists auteurist trends.

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VII. Oscar Category-by-Category Predictions

Timestamps: 60:36–89:55

Major Categories

• Best Picture:
  • Unanimous pick: "One Battle After Another"
  • “Sinners” is considered a plausible runner-up; long shot for “Begonia.”
• Best Director:
  • Majority: Paul Thomas Anderson. One pick (Wilmore) for Ryan Coogler, reflecting contemporary pressure for overdue representation (no Black filmmaker has yet won Best Director).
• Best Actor:
  • Field splits: Chalamet (“the vibe shift is real”), Michael B. Jordan (SAG momentum), Wagner Moura (chaos pick with precedent).
• Best Actress:
  • All pick Jessie Buckley (“locks” narrative; fits the Oscar-winning profile—youngish, acclaimed, due star vehicle).
• Best Supporting Actor:
  • Split votes: Stellan Skarsgard (career/“delightful grandpa” appeal), Sean Penn (default, though divisive, with career gravitas), Delroy Lindo (ballot “correction” possibility).
• Best Supporting Actress:
  • Mix: Most predict Amy Madigan (respected “semi-retired” veteran), some choose Teyana Taylor (electric breakout).
• Screenplays:
  • Original: “Sinners” (favored as the “rising star”/“consolation” slot).
  • Adapted: "One Battle After Another" (PTA as overdue, adaptive achievement).

Crafts & Technicals

• Art Direction, Costume, Makeup: “Frankenstein” sweeps these “craft” recognitions.
• Cinematography, Film Editing: Split between “One Battle…” and “Sinners.”
• Score: “Sinners” (would be composer’s third Oscar).
• Song: “Golden” (universally beloved).

Notable Segment [83:09]:
On unpredictable SAG wins and how “the vibe shift” can subvert apparent momentum.

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VIII. Lightning Round: Minor/Craft Category Picks

Timestamps: 87:17–89:55

A barrage of quick predictions—animated feature (“Kpop Demon Hunters”), international (“Sentimental Value” or “Secret Agent”), documentary (“Perfect Neighbor,” “Mr. Nobody against Putin”), and down the ballot shorts.

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IX. Next Year’s Sight-Unseen Award Season Frontrunners

Timestamps: 90:47–93:18

• Speculation for 2027 includes Spielberg’s likely tentpole “Disclosure Day,” Tom Cruise’s post-“Maverick” career moves, and “the bride” (presumably Gyllenhaal’s new take on classic horror).
• Quote [91:06, Allison Wilmore]: “I’m not gonna say the Odyssey because that’s such a boring answer. But like, obviously the Odyssey is poised to be an enormous thing.”

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Noteworthy Quotes & Moments

• On Chalamet Discourse:
  “I feel like mostly the Timmy discourse has been like, people just been looking at him too long. …It is causing people to finally be like, I am sick of this guy.”
  — Allison Wilmore [07:20]
• On Leo’s Persona:
  “He has no public facing Persona at all really, aside from like he's Leonardo DiCaprio. He loves models, he loves running on the beach and he loves movies and he likes environmentalism.”
  — Allison Wilmore [48:49]
• On Perfidia’s Complexity:
  “Like, it is okay for a character to be multidimensional and selfish.”
  — Allison Wilmore [31:41]
• On Oscar Predictions:
  “There are so few like Stone Cold Certainties for me and then other categories where it's just like, I genuinely have no idea.”
  — Richard Lawson [61:06]

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Tone & Style

The conversation is lively, self-aware, witty, and steeped in deep cinephile knowledge as well as the sardonic weariness that comes with months of obsessive awards chatter. The hosts balance careful analysis with humor, regularly subverting pontification with wisecracks and asides. They take both the art and the spectacle seriously—but never themselves.

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Key Takeaways

• "One Battle After Another" is this year’s juggernaut Oscar film, but the routes to gold remain twisty, colored by historical precedent, “vibe shifts,” and the unpredictability of Academy dynamics.
• The Oscars remain a battleground for questions of genre, representation, and how artists balance public persona with private evolution.
• Awards chatter—especially online—cycles through “discourse madness,” but the panel advocates for a more nuanced, less reactive engagement with art, activism, and the narratives around both.
• While predictions are earnest, the tone is clear: nothing is guaranteed, and that unpredictability is what makes the Oscars a perpetual object of fascination.

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Further Listening

Tune in next week for the hosts’ wrap-up after Oscars night—and for whichever battle comes next in the ongoing saga of awards season and film culture.

Transcript

[Allison Wilmore]

Welcome to Critical Darlings, a conversation about the awards season. Conversation one contender at a time. Please welcome to the stage your hosts, Richard Lawson and Allison Wilmore.

[Richard Lawson]

Marie, thank you for that beautiful introduction one last time before the Oscars. We are.

[Allison Wilmore]

We need it.

[Richard Lawson]

I know. We're here. As ever, we're here with our producer, Ben. Hello. Hello.

[Griffin Newman]

Good morning.

[Richard Lawson]

And returning guest. Hey. One of few returning guests.

[David Sims]

I'm back.

[Richard Lawson]

Yeah. David Sims. Hello.

[David Sims]

I'm good.

[Griffin Newman]

Oh, sorry. Hello.

[Richard Lawson]

How are you?

[David Sims]

Just crushing this Coke Zero.

[Richard Lawson]

Waking up. I mean, we're all, I think, a little worse for the wear given that, you know, we've been running this long Oscar race for months now.

[Allison Wilmore]

It's exhausting. We are tired.

[David Sims]

Why is it so late this year?

[Richard Lawson]

Is it like 70 degrees outside and

[Allison Wilmore]

we're still talking Olympics?

[David Sims]

But the Olympics are over.

[Allison Wilmore]

They are.

[Richard Lawson]

They.

[David Sims]

They've been over. They ended two weeks ago.

[Allison Wilmore]

I have no other answers because it is.

[David Sims]

They used to be end of March, and then they were like, okay, we know this is ridiculous. And they pulled it to end of Feb. But then they're like, except for if there's Olympics.

[Richard Lawson]

And like, the parasite year was like, early February.

[David Sims]

That's what we need. We need early February.

[Allison Wilmore]

I think we are also.

[David Sims]

I don't ever want to hear the word hemnet again.

[Allison Wilmore]

I mean, we have. I was expecting this to happen sooner, but I feel like this last week or so, we have gotten a bit of just like, Oscar season too long madness, where like, there have been various very bad discourses about various nominees.

[David Sims]

Yeah. And you don't want to talk about these movies anymore. You don't want to talk about the sort of. Right.

[Richard Lawson]

Fake.

[Allison Wilmore]

You're like. You run out of things to say about the movies. And so then you're just like, what are we going to keep talking about? Let's talk about how Jessie Buckley feels about Cats, you know, and you're like. And not the musical Cats, which would also be an interesting top two topic of.

[David Sims]

Should I go off on that? Right.

[Richard Lawson]

It's like in Grand Theft Auto, if you commit one too many crimes, like, all the police are on you. Like, that's what it feels like right now. It's like every single thing that is said or done about this year's Oscars causes huge controversy.

[David Sims]

In no trouble. Elordi.

[Griffin Newman]

No trouble.

[David Sims]

I guess he was in Wuthering Heights. Some people might hold.

[Richard Lawson]

Yeah, that's trouble.

[Allison Wilmore]

I think he has just. He has maintained a kind of aloof.

[David Sims]

He's done a good job, Penn.

[Allison Wilmore]

This is true.

[David Sims]

Shockingly not talking to anyone.

[Allison Wilmore]

I know Sean Penn by sneak to

[David Sims]

a win just by being like, yeah.

[Allison Wilmore]

And I feel like people actually somewhat seem to receive his smoking during the Golden Globes with mild positivity. Smoking. His back is making a comeback, apparently. And so he's really just ahead of the curve in that way.

[David Sims]

Leo, too, I guess. Leo has also just kind of done the thing of, like, don't mind me.

[Allison Wilmore]

Here I am.

[Griffin Newman]

I'm more insulated, I think, from Oscar discourse than the rest of you.

[Richard Lawson]

Good job.

[Griffin Newman]

But even the cats thing and then the Chalamet thing, are the two pieces that sort of crossed into my universe,

[Richard Lawson]

escaped containment, as they say.

[Griffin Newman]

Were those. Where does that stuff come from? Are those hit jobs or is it so.

[Allison Wilmore]

I mean, I feel like it is always an interesting question to be like, is this oppo research, you know, like, being done, being planted? Because, you know, like, from the Weinstein era when there was. That started to become a thing. Ever since then, I feel like you have to scrutinize Oscar narratives to be like, was this planted by opposing forces? In this case, I have no idea, though. I mean, like. Like Chalamet. I don't know why. I mean, Timothee Chalamet basically was like, I don't want the movies to become like, opera or ballet. These.

[David Sims]

We're doing the discourse. Yeah, no, carry on, carry on.

[Allison Wilmore]

You have to do it. You know, implying that these are just, like, now, like, incredibly niche art forms

[Richard Lawson]

that are supported by the wealthy.

[Allison Wilmore]

Hermetic art.

[David Sims]

Is this controversial for someone to say?

[Allison Wilmore]

No, but apparently, then I guess, like, he has also. This is not the first time he has voiced this, because child of, like, Lincoln center dwellers, this comes up at

[David Sims]

dinner probably, like twice a week.

[Richard Lawson]

The opening of west side Story. You can see him being born in the background.

[Allison Wilmore]

Yeah, it was an unusual choice.

[Richard Lawson]

The problem was in the recent thing with Matthew McConaughey, which was some bizarre town hall, like, I don't know what the hell that was. That is a good question.

[David Sims]

I don't know what that was.

[Richard Lawson]

He said the phrase no one cares about.

[David Sims]

Right, right. And then he's like, sorry.

[Richard Lawson]

And that was. That was the thing.

[Allison Wilmore]

And then also that then led people to dig up, like, when he said things like this before in, like, 2019, where I think he called them, you start to feel like those are dying art forms. And so that got brought up again, and I was like, timmy, I feel like the thing is, like, half of the people that I saw getting very huffy about this. Beyond the fact that I'M just like, I don't believe that any of you go to see the ballet or the opera with any regularity.

[Richard Lawson]

Sure. It's kind of expensive.

[Allison Wilmore]

It's really expensive. It is made, it's propped up by a wealthy opera.

[David Sims]

To be clear. I love the opera.

[Richard Lawson]

Sure.

[David Sims]

I don't go to enough ballet. I. I will admit, but.

[Allison Wilmore]

Yeah, no, no, but I mean, I think, like, I don't think anyone is disputing the importance of these art forms and the fact that they have been influential. But I feel like so much of the bad discourse has been like, oh, he's saying they don't, like they don't count for anything. And I'm like, he has a point. Like these things are really walled off and like, there is a legitimate concern.

[Richard Lawson]

Yes.

[Allison Wilmore]

That like cinema becomes like just this thing that is like a kind of novelty art form that, that most people are not actually connected to.

[David Sims]

Well, that's like a legacy art form that's like, we know this is important. It has a long history. Yes. There's new versions of it. They don't culturally have the significance.

[Richard Lawson]

I mean, do you know how many, how. I mean, it's. The attendance at my vaudeville theater is like so low these days and I'm doing good shows.

[Allison Wilmore]

I'm telling you though, some of that

[Richard Lawson]

material, the thousand dollar ticket price does kind of put people off.

[Griffin Newman]

Is it a coincidence that a lot of this stuff kind of came out at the end of the voting period?

[Allison Wilmore]

I mean, the funny thing about the Chalamet discourse is that it caught fire basically after it mattered. Like the voting, I think, had closed.

[David Sims]

It was like the last day of voting.

[Allison Wilmore]

It was the last day of voting. So it's hard to imagine that had any significant effect on the voting. Like there just wasn't time.

[David Sims]

The vibe had already shifted because people think the vibe has shifted because he didn't win the BAFTA or the sag. And so I feel like people were like. And this is, you know, the latest evidence of the vibe shifting when it's

[Richard Lawson]

not necessarily we're gonna do predictions later in the episode, but like, just as like a little preview. I think that like vibe shift on Chalamet is a bit of a misread of what happened at bafta.

[David Sims]

I sadly agree with you.

[Richard Lawson]

We can get into that later. But I think, I think a lot of people online are maybe. And I'm not, I don't want to like assume broad ignorance of like Oscar voting schedules. But like, I think they maybe don't quite understand that like, voting ended last Week and that, like, no, the bride is not going to Norbit, Jessie Buckley, because the movie wasn't out until voting was done. You know, I mean, maybe arguably should go.

[David Sims]

I just think it's.

[Richard Lawson]

Everyone should be Norbited from space to

[David Sims]

Norbit is a verb that means release something annoying in the month before your Oscar, your expected Oscar win. It's just a great brand.

[Allison Wilmore]

I mean, it's also like, it speaks to the power of cinema that you could release something so off putting that it could retroactively hurt the performance you did, you know, over, like two years ago. Yeah.

[Richard Lawson]

Yeah.

[Allison Wilmore]

I love that. I mean, I feel like mostly the Timmy discourse has been like, people just been looking at him too long. They've got been too much Timmy, and it is causing people to finally be like, I am sick of this guy.

[David Sims]

So Mikey Madison will be presenting best actor, right?

[Richard Lawson]

She will.

[David Sims]

For Anora.

[Richard Lawson]

And the winner's name is gonna be written on pink paper with cute little handcuffs, right?

[David Sims]

With a little curse. And what if she opens it up and its best actor goes to opera and there's a surprise win and they're just like, the killer. Yeah. I don't know.

[Allison Wilmore]

I mean, it could be a real twist.

[David Sims]

It's just. I think it's more just a little annoying that it's like, if he loses, people will be like, yeah, well, because he dissed the ballet, you don't do that. And it'll be like, no, I don't think that's why he lost or what do you.

[Richard Lawson]

No, I think it probably would have almost zero bearing on it if, you know, I. Look, I'm glad that, like, apparently, you know, opera and ballet companies the world over, the nation over, have been, like, kind of piggybacking on this galvanize, like, use offer code, like chalamet or whatever. Sure. No, that's actually the thing, I think that actually happened. And it's like, okay, great. Like if, you know, a rising tide lifts all boats in that way. I mean, I was joking on Twitter or whatever that was. Like, my parents are big. They love the Fathom events, like broadcasts of, like, the Met Opera because it's like a way more affordable way to see the opera. And they don't look like New York. And I was like, little, you know, their beloved, a complete unknown, which I showed to them, you know, last year, and they loved. I was like, if only they knew that. That Bob till he was trying to destroy it for fab.

[Allison Wilmore]

The New York Times did a whole big deep dive into the Metropolitan Opera's like, huge financial crisis that it's in right now, like, like, basically like three days ago. So it could use help. The. The moral of the story is, as always, support the arts.

[Richard Lawson]

Well, because. And yes, it's a real tangent, but, like, you know, as someone who follows theater pretty closely, like, post pandemic, the rich donor base for like, performing arts has completely cratered. And like, the rich people were like, oh, we can kind of get away with not having to like, do that. So it is a problem. And I'm glad that there is some light on that now because, like, I would be. I don't go to the opera or the ballet. I've been to the Met opera twice in my. In 20 years that I've lived here. Thank you. But I would be sad. And I like ambiently knowing that that's happening.

[David Sims]

Obviously we need the Met to exist. It can't be going nowhere. The opera is good.

[Richard Lawson]

So I'm glad that at least people are paying attention to the fact that like, they are in financial ruin.

[Allison Wilmore]

I'm not sure has the Jesse Buckley discourse done anything on behalf of Cats that we know of?

[David Sims]

All right. I think, I think there's. There's plenty of cat fans out there. I don't. I don't think there's a shortage of fandom. Yeah, no, they're fine.

[Richard Lawson]

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[David Sims]

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[David Sims]

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[Richard Lawson]

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[David Sims]

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[Allison Wilmore]

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[David Sims]

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[David Sims]

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[Richard Lawson]

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[Richard Lawson]

Thank you.

[David Sims]

Thank you for your attention to this matter.

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[Richard Lawson]

So this whole, you know, project thus far has been. Every week we talk about a best picture nominee. We have one left, which is one battle after another. I think saved the. Probably the front runner for last. Although you could make the argument that Sinners last week, one battle is the front runner. It is. Right, guys? Yeah.

[David Sims]

Is everyone crazy?

[Richard Lawson]

I mean, I'm just.

[Allison Wilmore]

Look, it's been a long Oscar season. There's the tides.

[David Sims]

It's a front runner. I'm not saying that it is. Nothing is guaranteed in this life.

[Richard Lawson]

No.

[David Sims]

But it has a very hefty slate of wins. In these silly precursors, we unfortunately pay attention.

[Richard Lawson]

And that is not vibes. That is literally it. One DGA at one dga, write their

[David Sims]

votes down and it's the winner every time. Basically.

[Richard Lawson]

Yeah. Yes. It is pretty consistently been at the top of everything and is going into Sunday with a real, real momentum to it. I think there's potential. We'll get into predictions later. I think there's potential that it could kind of lose in some places.

[David Sims]

But like it's that this race has been so long and people get sick of a front runner.

[Richard Lawson]

Right.

[David Sims]

Like, that's always the fear. But it is a front runner.

[Allison Wilmore]

Sure.

[Richard Lawson]

Yeah. And rewatching the movie last night, as I think both Alison and I did. Yes, it's really good.

[Allison Wilmore]

To me, it's onto something that Paul

[David Sims]

Thomas Anderson it's one of those to me similar to Oppenheimer. And I know not everyone agrees about every single. You know where it's just kind of like the Oscars. Can't really pass up on something like that. It doesn't happen that often. You have a major director and a major movie star making a big movie that people saw that got universal critical acclaim. That's about stuff that's happening right now. It just doesn't happen.

[Richard Lawson]

And it's not just about stuff that's happening now. It has somewhat eerily seemed more appreciate the more that 2025 it's lined up

[David Sims]

current events in a way that it. How did they do.

[Allison Wilmore]

But like there I remember when it came out someone was pointing out as if this were kind of widely accepted when I feel like it is definitely not widely accepted that like the film starts in the present day and the rest of it takes place in the near future.

[Richard Lawson]

Right.

[Allison Wilmore]

And I was like, I don't know that that's definitely the case. I feel like you can make an argument for it, but I feel like part of the reason it feels when you. When it initially came out it felt like maybe you could make that argument of the near future is because of the ways the mku, the like force in it. The kind of like it's sort of ice. It's also the military, it's also the police that kind of descend upon the town Becton Cross for like a large part of the movie. They just kill people. They, you know, like they, they grab people off the streets without any pretense really.

[Richard Lawson]

And you know, they shoot Alanaheim's wig off.

[Allison Wilmore]

They do. I know, yeah. Like it's brutal. And you're like, okay, we live in that now. Like, you know, like that is. That is just like how things are like it. So any kind of edge of well, we're not there yet went away so quickly.

[Richard Lawson]

Yeah. Completely evaporated. And I think one of the strengths of the movie, of many strengths is that it's not trying to one to one match Trump era America. There are weird names and funny Christmas adventures. It feels very much of its own world. It's just reflecting or bouncing off of what we're experiencing. I think if it was doing the opposite, which was, you know would be like really trying to map exactly onto what we're experiencing. It would. You'd start to see a lot of holes. But like in this case you can. It's more allegorical.

[Allison Wilmore]

Yeah. And I feel like it. You Know, like, it is based on

[Richard Lawson]

a book from, like, 1990.

[Allison Wilmore]

Right. 80s, I want to say Vineland takes place in 1980 maybe, or.

[David Sims]

Yeah, yeah, 1990 book. Right.

[Allison Wilmore]

Yeah, yeah.

[David Sims]

Set in the mid-80s.

[Allison Wilmore]

So you have a book that, like, you know, was about, like, a totally different generation of kind of radicalism that. And then the present day of it is like, Reagan's. Reagan.

[David Sims]

It's the peak of Reaganism. It's set during the 84. Like, during Reagan's reelection.

[Allison Wilmore]

Yeah.

[David Sims]

When it's like he's won the. The. Those guys.

[Allison Wilmore]

Those guys get one. And, like, they're. Obviously, there's a lot of kind of like, throwback DNA to the French 75 in particular. Right. Like, they have this feeling of, like, in, like. In some ways, they're extremely present. And then in other ways, I just feel like kind of radicals from. Yeah. The 60s and the 70s. Interestingly, a few days ago, a writer named Hope Reeves, whose parents are both Weathermen, wrote an opinion piece in the Times being like, I really hate how nonspecific the activism is in this movie, that it's not grounded to a particular revolutionary worldview. Like, revolution is the cause that all of these characters keep espousing. But that's something I actually appreciated more on this rewatch is that they do have, especially in the beginning, they are going after, you know, migrants who. Right. Like, nutrients. Yeah. And also anti abortion. Right. Like, they do have some specific causes, but the idea of activism and the idea of, like, fighting against the powers that be is like a more general theme. Right. Like, it kind of. It allows that, like, the particular causes can mutate as time goes on, but that it is about the idea of being a revolutionary. Yeah.

[David Sims]

I think the complaint that I'm reading the piece, and she says, like, I really. I shouldn't have expected this movie to be a battle cry about a specific thing.

[Allison Wilmore]

Yeah.

[David Sims]

So it's a little bit on me. So she sort of, you know, she

[Richard Lawson]

also dings critics for thinking it was a rallying cry. And the headline of Manola Dargis review in the New York Times uses the phrase rallying cry. So she's, you know, being pointed. But anyway.

[Griffin Newman]

Sure.

[David Sims]

But I mean, like, I think some people. Because Ghetto Pat is kind of like, here I'm just here to blow things up, you know, like, people see the French 75 as a little flippant, a little. Like, what are they? You know, are they just like kind of, you know, cowboys who are just there to have fun? But it's like, to me, very obvious. One that the movie is presenting to you various modes of resistance, not just the French 75.

[Allison Wilmore]

Sure.

[David Sims]

Like we meet the nuns, we meet Benicio's.

[Richard Lawson]

Yeah. That's a whole separate thing.

[Allison Wilmore]

Yeah. Kind of like my.

[David Sims]

These are all like, we, of course, Willa is embarking on her own, like new, you know, form of revolution. Whatever she wants to be doing. It's not flipping like the French 70. And I think also the way that Perfidia's mom talks to Pat, she's like, you, you know, we don't take you very seriously, sweetie pie. You're a nice boy.

[Richard Lawson]

She comes from a lineage of this kind of struggle.

[David Sims]

We are quite serious. She is quite chaotic. We are quite serious. And you are clearly like, you know, a well meaning person along for the.

[Allison Wilmore]

There's a point where Perfidia's mother calls him a stump, which is like the most brutal thing.

[David Sims]

Runner.

[Griffin Newman]

You're a stump.

[David Sims]

Yes.

[Allison Wilmore]

Yeah, brutal. Assess. You can great.

[Griffin Newman]

Perform.

[Richard Lawson]

Great.

[David Sims]

One of the many, like incredible, like two scene performances in that movie, like every actor.

[Richard Lawson]

I mean, I think there is some thought in the movie about the way these things are generationally sort of translated and like aestheticized over time. Like, are you just kind of playing the part of this or like back in my day we really meant it. And you know, and I think that Anderson is very much thinking about like, not maybe his revolutionary life. I don't think he has one as far as I know, but like about what, what he's imparting to his children and what like his generation is imparting to the younger ones and saying like, yes, you will lose some things, but you might gain some new clarity there. Like there, there, there's. There's devolution and evolution, but it's also,

[Allison Wilmore]

I think in ways that are very generous. It is about being like you have ideals, but you are still a movement made up of incredibly fallible people who all have like personal weaknesses and some of whom were not animated with the same kind of like purity of, of, of belief and some, you know, like,

[David Sims]

it's a bit of a motley.

[Allison Wilmore]

One of the things that I love about Perfidia is that she is a character who kind of does simultaneously seems to hold like these kind of like really fervent beliefs and revolutionary ideals, but also in like enjoying like the rush of it so much and her own kind of stardom within this movement.

[Sponsor/Ad Reader]

Right.

[Allison Wilmore]

Like these are all forces that feed who she is and where she, what she does and ultimately make her like this really kind of difficult character for all of the other ones to grapple with. But I think that's true. Whenever you meet and you do anything related to activism, you meet people. Some people who are, like, in it, you know, because they like to hear themselves talk. And you meet some people who are in it because they have an enormous, like, really kind of, like, idealistic, like. Yeah. And some people just came from a background of that, and they take for granted that that's what they do. And I feel like the movie is good at being like, look at this huge spectrum of experiences and reasons why people get involved in this.

[David Sims]

Yeah, absolutely. You know, versus the Christmas adventurers. They're mortal enemies who are this, you know, kind of, like, fossilized crowd, even though some of them are younger, but, like. Right. Like, you know, the whole intention.

[Richard Lawson]

One of them looks, like, embalmed. Like, their faces are also good.

[Griffin Newman]

They speak the language of the Internet because they talk about the haters.

[David Sims]

Yes. Punk trash.

[Allison Wilmore]

Yes, yes. It's a really good line, which is

[Griffin Newman]

very funny, but I think is also sort of telling.

[Allison Wilmore]

Yeah. And I feel like, you know,

[Richard Lawson]

their

[Allison Wilmore]

white supremacy is built into, obviously, so much of the action that unfolds and, like, explicitly built into their movement. But, like, the end goal of their movement is to prop up their own power. Right. Like, the whiteness is also part of how they declare themselves superior human beings. Right. Like, they are just trying to cement. Not only do they deserve to have this power, but, like, this is the world order.

[David Sims]

But just all the little. The Christmas adventurers that I pour over. I've seen the movie several times, you know, Like, I think about, like, all the little lines. Like, they love the tracker guy, but they would never trust him, of course,

[Richard Lawson]

because he's not, you know, white, they say, not homegrown.

[Allison Wilmore]

And also not a native son. Native son. Possible. Like, in terms of his background, when

[David Sims]

they're like, we have to shut down the chicken fingers, they're like, I really like those chicken fingers. You know, like, they know, like, the systems that support the things they enjoy.

[Allison Wilmore]

Chicken Finger Company is owned by a Christmas adventure.

[David Sims]

It is. I. I love all those little details.

[Allison Wilmore]

Sure, sure.

[David Sims]

Yeah. Yeah. It's really funny.

[Richard Lawson]

Yeah.

[David Sims]

It's a. Just. I don't know. I. I saw it. Were you guys at tiff? When did you see it?

[Richard Lawson]

I saw it.

[David Sims]

I saw it quite early.

[Richard Lawson]

After you saw it before me. I know that for sure. I saw it after TIFF and, like,

[David Sims]

an empty screening, so, like, no atmosphere. Right. Like, you know, just kind of like, come see one.

[Griffin Newman]

But.

[David Sims]

And I was like, right, okay.

[Richard Lawson]

Which I had.

[David Sims]

My jaw was on the floor.

[Richard Lawson]

I had thought because watching the trailers, I'm sort of hit or miss with pta. Some things. I mean, I adore Phantom thread. I think that's one of the best movies of the 2010s movies. It's his funniest movie. It's beautiful, it's romantic, but next down the line is like, I have to go all the way back to Boogie Nights, you know, And I thought that one battle, based on the pension aspect and the trailer, I was like, oh, it's going to be another Inherent Vice where it's, like, trying really hard for weird comedy. It's mostly to make PTA laugh behind the camera, blah, blah, blah. But then I started hearing from people like you who had seen it before, and they were like, no, no, it's like a kind of a huge epic. Like, it's really great. And I still went in skeptical because he has never made a movie like this before. Like, no, not really.

[David Sims]

Sure, yeah.

[Richard Lawson]

There Will Be Blood is an epic, but of a different stripe. And this. Watching it again, I was like, the end of the movie is like, legitimately approaching the line of corny. I mean, you know, but in a beautiful way. I think it has.

[Allison Wilmore]

I mean, that it pulls off that needle drop and we can talk about that.

[David Sims]

Some people think it doesn't. I think it does.

[Allison Wilmore]

I think about it in detail later, but it is definitely, like, the most kind of sentimental. I don't. I mean, like, I love Inherent Vice, but I feel like. I mean, it is funny how many of his movies are about this idea of this kind of, like, Edenic past that is kind of gone, if it ever existed. But, like, you know, like, that you are already past the golden era. Like, things are already kind of, like, fading. And I mean, that movie in particular, but, like.

[Griffin Newman]

Like ballet.

[Allison Wilmore]

Like Ballet, you know, the golden age.

[Richard Lawson]

Or the opera.

[Allison Wilmore]

Or the opera. The golden age in which we all went to ballet and the opera all the time. It is.

[Richard Lawson]

Well, we all met at La Scala, right? In Milan, years ago, just rattling around.

[Allison Wilmore]

I would love to be someone who went to La Scala.

[David Sims]

I'd love to go to La Scala,

[Richard Lawson]

Teatro Cologne and Buenos Aires.

[Allison Wilmore]

But, like, I don't know. I mean, like, there's something about the way that this is Pynchon again and is about. Yes, like a. A former revolutionary who's been rattling around just, like, high off his mind for 15 years now, not believing in anything anymore. But, like, that has that. It ends on a note that is hopeful, I think is like, really something.

[David Sims]

It's a surprise. And I mean, it's, it's, it's a film made by a person who has children, like, and it resonated with me as a parent. Obviously, we're not giving up.

[Richard Lawson]

What other choice does he have or the movie have? You know, like, I mean, you have to kind of hope at least that you're, you know, like there's some kind of world waiting for your kids, for them to grab or change or, you

[David Sims]

know, I mean, last year we had Eddington, we had movies that had the more mordant view of like, we might be good, you know, like, you can go in that direction. But no, indeed, one battle is very pointedly not going in.

[Richard Lawson]

And that kind of sentiment from him. Look, there have been emotional beats in many of his movies, but this felt so raw and sort of self referencing in a nice way that I was kind of shocked by it. And I hate to throw this up as a counterexample because the movies have nothing to do with each other. But you look at what a formerly sort of prickly edgy filmmaker like Noah Baumbach did when he went full sentimental with Jay Kelly, which is, I think, a horror show.

[David Sims]

I like that movie.

[Richard Lawson]

And I know, I know, I know. But like pta, I think he does the sort of emotional thing that I don't think this was his intention, but like, that gets it sort of across a certain line for the Academy, but does it in his own particular way and just enough and it doesn't overdo it. And I think that's tricky.

[Allison Wilmore]

You know, it is still a mournful movie because it is very much about the idea that it is almost impossible for people to sustain that fervor of youth and like that commitment to the possibility of changing the world, right? Like there are a few characters who continue to hold that up, like from the initial, the opening French 75 sequence later, right? You have Regina Hall's character, Deandra, but she's tired and she's. No, but I mean, that's the thing is like her one battle after another, her teary face at the end is like just so heartbreaking because you're also. Like you have. Yeah, like you are tired. And like, the thing is, every single character who gets captured informs, right? Like the movie has enormous actually empathy for that. The idea that you as a single person cannot be expected to stand up to the might of the state because

[David Sims]

there's going to be someone you love, some vulnerability in your life that gets exploited.

[Richard Lawson]

Tropes of storytelling, of film that like no, no, no. There are resolute heroes who would never do that. And I think the film is saying, well, I mean, like rewatching it. I was like, oh, God, the scene where the kids are being interrogated about where their friend is and whether she has a cell phone and the person who ends up kind of ratting on her essentially is the non binary kid with the earring. And I was like, oh, is this PTA kind of being like, I don't think it is. I think he's saying, like, what would happen if that person has the most desant prison, right? Like, that kid knows they would be in deep, deep trouble.

[David Sims]

In an interview, PTA said that that actor just also, because they truly were at a school picking kids out of the crowd and that that actor just popped so quickly and they were like, do you want to do like another scene? Do you want to do? But, but I think that's absolutely how I felt watching the movie of just like, that person has more to lose, right?

[Allison Wilmore]

I mean, I mean, it's the same, you know, like the interrogation of Billy Goat Howard Somerville, who's so good. Paul Grimstad, he's. He, like, he's like one of the people who has kept going, right. Like a lot of the other friend 75 members get killed or end up in prison and killed or, or turn right? But like he, he's ready to stand up when it comes to sacrificing himself. When the idea comes to sacrificing your loved ones is like, that's when. And I think like, there is like, the movie has so much sympathy for the idea of informing because it is also like you. Yes. Like the longer you are in this world, the more you accrue loved ones, the more you accrue people. You aren't just like thinking about yourself as this soldier in this war. You have connections. You are pulling other people in and that you cannot fault people for having ties, right?

[Griffin Newman]

And if the goal is one battle after another, you have to live to

[Allison Wilmore]

see another day and also to pass the baton on to other people. Right?

[Richard Lawson]

And like Perfidia going to Mexico to, you know, living to slay another day, like, you kind of understand and you wonder if Regina hall might be kind of thinking in the back of her head, like Perfidia maybe had the right idea. Like, she got out and she still has the capacity. I mean, she made one choice to kind of preserve herself, which, you know, the Internet has read as sort of selfish and bad characterization and all that. But I think again, PTA is really Complicating and humanizing those hero tropes, I

[Allison Wilmore]

think also, like, yeah, like, it's a movie that I feel like, even explicitly says, like, you can get older and get selfish and, like, you know, that is just part of.

[David Sims]

Or you can just be Pat. Pat Bob, you know, like, just, you know, older and kind of over it and kind of burned out and, like, not really helping anyone out anymore. And, you know, he rediscovers a little bit of heroism, but really all he. You know, what he's doing is protecting his daughter.

[Allison Wilmore]

And even then, he. He does not actually accomplish. Not much in the movie, I think, in ways that are delightful.

[David Sims]

Right.

[Allison Wilmore]

He is not helpful at all.

[David Sims]

Yeah. I mean, to the extent that he actually affects the action, it is low at the end there.

[Allison Wilmore]

I mean, like, I feel like the biggest.

[David Sims]

The brilliance of, like, you know, like, him falling off the roof or whatever.

[Allison Wilmore]

He's falling off the roof. I mean, the biggest thing he accomplishes immediately, Taze, is getting Benicio Del Toro's character arrested because he's not careful about when he's drinking.

[David Sims]

He's not very careful.

[Richard Lawson]

Yeah. They're not police that are working necessarily under, like, Sean Penn's rule. They're just like, oh, that guy has a beer in the car.

[Allison Wilmore]

Wait, can we talk about Perfidia a little bit? Because I feel like you're right. Like, there was a lot of kind of, like, back and forth about. I mean, beyond just, like, Tiana Taylor, I think, just is such a movie star. Like, is just like an electric, magnetic. Yeah, like, is. And I think you can definitely make the case that, like, the movie never quite recovers that particular energy Right. When she's gone, because she is just such this unique, kind of like, the

[David Sims]

mini movie at the start of the movie is incredible, right? All in it all by itself.

[Allison Wilmore]

Yeah. But I do feel like I really resist the idea that because perfidia makes selfish choices that, like, it's bad characterization. Because I'm like, you're allowed. Like, it is okay for a character to be multidimensional and selfish. Well, it's also.

[David Sims]

She's so obviously suffering from post malpraction, and it's such a loud thing in the movie that people overlook people.

[Allison Wilmore]

Just, like, really, like, the fact that that was just not part of her

[David Sims]

whole monologue where she's like, you care

[Allison Wilmore]

about the baby more than me. I don't feel seen. Like, I feel. Yeah, that's like, what they give you

[David Sims]

at the doctor's office, the sheet they

[Allison Wilmore]

give you, and it's like in a year which has had other, like, very conflicted maternal portraits.

[David Sims]

Right.

[Allison Wilmore]

Like Die My Love, which is like, absolutely about someone that is dealing with a lot of chaos, you know, in the wake of having a child.

[David Sims]

Yeah. I'm just thinking about Die My Love, just because it's funny, because it's her going like. And then she's like, well, baby. And the baby's over. She's like, oh, right, the baby. Yeah, yeah, don't worry, the baby's over.

[Allison Wilmore]

The baby's fine. The baby's fine. Yeah. But, like. Yeah, I agree. I feel like it is so explicit that Perfidion is dealing with postpartum depression.

[David Sims]

Right.

[Allison Wilmore]

And, like, that just, like, was taken off the table as something that, like,

[David Sims]

it felt weirdly under discussed to me. But it's a movie with a ton to discuss. I understand that. Maybe it's just that she's such a incredible badass that then you feel betrayed by the movie, you know, by her, by the choices your character makes. But she's a survivor. Like, what she's doing with Lockjaw, you know, manipulating him, you know, like, sexually and all that. Like, that's obviously, like, that's her being a survivor. And then, like, you know, there is

[Richard Lawson]

a gorgeous and sad moment where she gets caught in the bathroom by him and he's basically like, you can keep doing what you're doing. You just have to meet me at this place, whatever. And then she syncs back up with Leo and they're walking away and holds on her face. He, like, taps her on the face. Yeah. And she kind of fake smiles. And then her face returns to this. Like, my life has just changed because I'm now fucking tied to this guy. And, like, it's such a great, subtle piece of acting that tells you a lot about what that character is experiencing and feeling. And. Yeah, the notion that. That. That she is, you know, underserved by. By being less than heroic or whatever and an overly sexualized or, you know, Teyana Taylor herself has, like, responded to some of the criticisms about the character, especially the sexualization. And she can handle herself. Do you know what it's like to be a black woman in the world? Like, you know, she has spoken, you know, about it in a way that I certainly can't. And people should seek that out because, like, she, you know, she stands by the character in the movie in a way. And I'm like, well, then, okay, good, you know, then I believe you.

[Allison Wilmore]

Yeah. Yeah. And the thing is also when she leaves and she says that Thing about, like, this is a new consciousness and all of that. I'm like, I'm sorry. That is so real. For someone who is, like, going to be like, I'm going to reposition the language of, like, my activism to defend my personal choices. I'm like, of course. People do that all the time. You know, she knows.

[David Sims]

She. You know. Yeah. She's conflicted internally.

[Allison Wilmore]

And she's right.

[David Sims]

That's how she's convinced about it.

[Allison Wilmore]

Exactly. She is casting it as this kind of like, this revolutionary choice to be, like, I'm choosing me first. And obviously, as time goes by, she feels much more conflicted about that choice. And I think that the movie is very clear about that. Anyway.

[David Sims]

Yes, I certainly. I know. I don't mean to sound. I'm like, I'm only grumpy about, like. I found a lot of the discourse around this movie a little trying, but, like, that's normal for a movie this big, that. A movie this provocative, that means people are watching it to provoke a lot of reactions that I might disagree with. Of course it does mean people are watching it, which is great because it

[Richard Lawson]

really spiked when it dropped on HBO Max, you know, because much more people had access to the movie.

[David Sims]

And then all of a sudden.

[Richard Lawson]

Yeah, yeah, yeah. No, for sure.

[David Sims]

But yeah. And you're right. Like, it's like movies like Eddington or. I'm trying to think of, like, the big, provocative movies.

[Richard Lawson]

Blue Moon, Train Dreams.

[David Sims]

Well, it is crazy that Train Dreams had.

[Richard Lawson]

It did have virulent discourse around Thanksgiving time. It had a.

[David Sims]

It's my surprise.

[Richard Lawson]

Its moment in the sun.

[David Sims]

Yeah, yeah. Blue Moon. Just like. Right. E.B. white, he never would be doing that.

[Allison Wilmore]

I don't know.

[David Sims]

I'm trying to think of what the Blue Moon Discourse would be.

[Allison Wilmore]

I mean, that. The most controversial. I mean, I feel like the Blue Moon Discourse was just about the height.

[Richard Lawson]

It's discriminatory to Short or.

[Allison Wilmore]

No, just being like, is this. Is this good?

[David Sims]

Are you kidding me with this? Like, sort of Ethan Hawke, like, walking around like that. The answer is, it is good.

[Sponsor/Ad Reader]

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[Griffin Newman]

Yes.

[Sponsor/Ad Reader]

Watch this. Watch this.

[David Sims]

This. Can you tell me what's going on?

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[Griffin Newman]

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[David Sims]

Oh, boy. Well, it's really tough, man. Wait, Griffin, what are you doing?

[Sponsor/Ad Reader]

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[David Sims]

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[Sponsor/Ad Reader]

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[David Sims]

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[Sponsor/Ad Reader]

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[David Sims]

That upcharge is gone. Wow. They're beefing up the seafood. They've got grass fed steak, ribeyes. They've got seasonal produce, pears, apples, asparagus.

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[David Sims]

Yeah, of course. I've been there so long.

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[David Sims]

Oh yeah, actually I was just checking out old school barbecue pork sloppy joes. Ooh, that's a super high protein item.

[Sponsor/Ad Reader]

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[Allison Wilmore]

Yep.

[David Sims]

And we mentioned seafood. There is of course prep and baked Tex Mex salmon tacos.

[Sponsor/Ad Reader]

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[David Sims]

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[David Sims]

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[Richard Lawson]

So you know, given that One Battle seems to be a frontrunner, it has won all these precursor awards. I was watching it again thinking about the Oscars in a new era, like a different academy. All that to you guys. Does one battle feel like a new sort of best picture frontrunner? Cause I would say there are some really old fashioned things in there as well as the sort of modernity there is.

[David Sims]

But doesn't it feel Kind of like, similar to. I mean, look, is the. Like, obviously, PTA was always a guy that the Oscars kind of patted on the head, right? And they expected, you know, like, Couldn't Boogie Nights. Take your screenplay nom. Magnolia. Take your screenplay nom. Punch Drunk Love. Don't be weird.

[Richard Lawson]

Phantom Thread. Best Picture.

[David Sims]

Oh, no, no, no. Then There Will Be Blood.

[Richard Lawson]

Yeah, yeah, yeah.

[David Sims]

Is the moment where it's like, oh, are they gonna take him seriously? But they're, you know, and they're kind of like, wait, your turn. The Coen brothers made a masterpiece. They're winning this time. You're still a baby and.

[Griffin Newman]

Right.

[David Sims]

And they've been sort of slowly warming up to him, much like they did with Nolan. And then Oppenheimer's the moment where they're like, good job making a grown up movie. Like, you win Best Picture. Congratulations. And this has that vibe, too. But this is a weird movie. I don't see this movie winning 20 years ago in the same, like, with the same ease. I don't know.

[Allison Wilmore]

I mean, it reminds me of when the Coens made no country for Old Men, which is a movie that I love, which is great.

[David Sims]

Another movie that came out and got universal acclaim to the point that it was kind of like, is that it? Like, is it over?

[Allison Wilmore]

But, you know, it's like, it's both, like, still very much a Cohen's movie has, like, some real weirdness in there. But it felt like maybe, I don't know, like, it fit more cleanly into, like, certain genres, I feel like into the western, into, like, it has very exciting action. You know, it has. And I feel like that's. I mean, rewatching one battle after another. I was like, yes, this is the same thing. It is still very much a Paul Thomas Anderson movie, but it is one that fits within a slightly more, I would say, conventional container in terms of. Yes. Being about kind of action and this, like, sweeping.

[Richard Lawson]

Yeah.

[David Sims]

And about fathers and daughters and about,

[Richard Lawson]

you know, particularly about a generation, like, reacting to the youth of today. Like, I think that, you know, PTA kind of putting all these jokes about, like, I don't know how to use my phone. I don't know how to ask what someone. What a kid's gender. You know, pronouns are like, that could be so creaky and bad. But he does it in such a sort of subtle and sweet way that it's. I think I would imagine a lot of voters, like, over 50 are like, oh, yeah, like that. Finally, something warmly relatable in a PTA movie. That also has all of his signature weirdness and style.

[Allison Wilmore]

Sure, yeah.

[Griffin Newman]

Right.

[Allison Wilmore]

I mean, it's also. It is a movie, at least from the. From Leo's character's point of view. It's a movie about being washed. Right. Like, it is a movie about like

[Richard Lawson]

kind of chopped dunk being chopped and dunked.

[David Sims]

He is chopped and dunked.

[Allison Wilmore]

Yeah. It's not even that he doesn't want to try a bit, but like, he's just so aware of all of the ways in which, like kind of the tide is like leaving him behind.

[Richard Lawson]

Right.

[Allison Wilmore]

Like that. And that he's okay with that. I think, like, ultimately kind of like, it's not like he's resisting before, but he's kind of checked out. Whereas I feel like by the end,

[David Sims]

no, the triumph of the movies, he's gonna try to use a smartphone. And I really do think, I mean, like, it's one of the moments of the movie. One of the many moments that makes me cry. Right. Is that he's trying to figure out,

[Richard Lawson]

well, he can now because he's not, you know, in so much hiding. I mean, he might as well be. I used to date Fiona Apple and do cocaine, you know, like, like.

[Allison Wilmore]

No, I mean, like that. I feel like there is definitely. There is definitely some of that.

[Griffin Newman]

I think too, he's sort of represents the malaise of just like what it feels like to live in the current moment and to be bombarded by so much shit every single day and just how exhausting that is and how, like how easy it is to just like

[Richard Lawson]

check out 100% check out from new stuff, but also from your old stuff. Like, he's lost the passion for what he used to do. You know, we don't really know how serious he was about any of these causes.

[Allison Wilmore]

Right. Like, it was clearly very exciting for him and he liked being part of the team. But yeah, he doesn't.

[Richard Lawson]

And he was in love and.

[Allison Wilmore]

But he doesn't remember the revolutionary text. What time is it? You know, like he's gotta call the manager of the revolutionary hotline to get through.

[Richard Lawson]

When I first saw the movie, I found that segment where he's like on the phone, you know, like yelling and in the bathrobe. And it felt like I was like, this is maybe a little too over egged, trying to be a little too funny on second viewing. I didn't feel that way at all. Like, very emotional. I felt his frustration at himself.

[David Sims]

Yes.

[Richard Lawson]

You know, more. And yes, he's yelling at the guy on the phone, but he's really yelling at himself, Right?

[David Sims]

Like, I think so. He's yelling at himself. He's also, like, he's frustrated by, you know, people who are maybe, you know, a little too high on being part of the team, versus, like, he keeps trying to make the emotional kind of like, can't you tell that I'm fucked up?

[Richard Lawson]

Right?

[David Sims]

Like, please help me. My daughter. My daughter's been taking, you know, like, and the guy's like, you should know.

[Richard Lawson]

And this is your. What is it? Like, you're. He's something, like, sort of safe space. He's like, you're violating my sound, making me feel. These are noise triggers. Right?

[David Sims]

To me, the funniest part of that whole sequence, which is a very funny sequence, is when he keeps saying, I don't know what time it is. And Sergio St. James just says the time.

[Allison Wilmore]

Yes. Yeah.

[David Sims]

He's like, 8:02.

[Allison Wilmore]

Yeah.

[David Sims]

Yeah. Because I'm like, he has such clarity, like, and he knows what time it is because he has to know what time it is because he's in charge of something that's very, like, proper and organized and, like. Anyway, I just think it's such a.

[Allison Wilmore]

I like that sequence just because of how many times. How many times Bob tries to plug in his phone. Like, he. He gets a charger and, like, in this, like, labyrinthine, kind of, like, compound that is, like, a place. I suppose it's like one of those

[David Sims]

irritating old charges he ever rested in a cradle.

[Allison Wilmore]

Like, he is, like, shooed away from, like, like, four different spots along the way where Bob keeps being like, we have to go. You can't do that here, Sergio. Sorry, sorry.

[Richard Lawson]

Ser.

[Allison Wilmore]

Keeps being like, you need to come on. Like, we. This is not the place where you can charge your phone. Keep coming, Keep coming. Yeah, so I feel like, I don't know, like, I. This is not my favorite Leo performance. I enjoy him in this movie. I always go back and forth on Leo. He's not my favorite actor. I, I.

[David Sims]

It's a very. It's a Leo. I love the performance. I guess my favorite Leo is.

[Richard Lawson]

I don't know.

[Griffin Newman]

What's your favorite?

[Allison Wilmore]

I know what my favorite Leo is.

[David Sims]

My answer was always Shutter island, which is a movie I adore. And I think he's so locked in. I think the answer is probably Wolf of Wall Street. Like, that's the most big Leo performance.

[Richard Lawson]

Catch me if you can.

[David Sims]

He's so good in that. That's. That's probably the best baby Leo, also for me is.

[Allison Wilmore]

And, you know, it was something I was thinking about, like, looking like. Out of the best actor nominees this year, four out of the five of them were all, like, child actors. Right. They have all been acting aside from

[Richard Lawson]

Wagner, although we don't know.

[Allison Wilmore]

I looked this up because I was like, he did kind of find his way into acting, into an adulthood. But yeah, you're like.

[Richard Lawson]

Otherwise you have, like, so much sexier.

[Allison Wilmore]

Four actors who have been acting since they were children.

[David Sims]

It's true. And who have basically been like, I have been plugged into their actors since they were children. Like Leo, I guess the least. Like, I didn't watch Growing Pains and

[Richard Lawson]

neither did I. Oh, I did.

[Griffin Newman]

But.

[David Sims]

Right. But like.

[Richard Lawson]

But he was around Ethan Hawke.

[David Sims]

I watched, like, White Fang when I was a kid or what, you know. You know all those little movies he made. Michael B. Jordan, obviously. I watched the Wire, Where's Wallace? And watched Friday Night Lights and all that. I remember when he was dating Mae Whitman on Parenthood.

[Richard Lawson]

Sure.

[David Sims]

Was Mae Whitman. I'm pretty sure it's May Whitman. And Timmy. I guess, like, I was irked by him on Homeland.

[Allison Wilmore]

Sure. Remember how irked some he was?

[Richard Lawson]

And you watch Love the Coopers every Christmas, right?

[David Sims]

I can't say I know what that is.

[Richard Lawson]

It's a Christmas movie he did with

[David Sims]

Marisa Tomei and he's an Interstellar. Because the funniest part of Interstellar is him being like, hey, dad, what's going on? The farm is, you know, I've made

[Richard Lawson]

this and he gets blown up on Honglands.

[David Sims]

But then it cuts to Casey Affleck because he turned. And then Casey alf's like, hey, dude, how you doing? I'm like, could they have not tried to match their voices at all?

[Richard Lawson]

What happened? Ever since the accident, I talk like this. Exactly.

[David Sims]

Did the Earth get, like, helium in its atmosphere?

[Allison Wilmore]

But vibes wise, they're both very pointy.

[David Sims]

Yeah, totally.

[Allison Wilmore]

Yeah. Yeah. I mean, I feel like the problem is, like, also, as a woman of a certain age, I just, like, very much imprinted on, like, heartthrob, like, beautiful

[Richard Lawson]

Leo as, like, as a man of a certain age, Romeo and Julia.

[Allison Wilmore]

And, like, it's just like, I find him, I guess, like, him as this, like, leading man that a lot of kind of auteur directors really cling on. I don't always see it. Like, in this case, I do enjoy him being, like, the fool. Like, I think he's very funny in this and there's a lot of pathos as well. But yeah, like, he is kind of like the floundering point in the middle of this movie, of like all of the action.

[Richard Lawson]

I think something that I was thinking about this, watching it again and in light of that really great Nikki Glaser joke about we don't know anything about you. Like, the only thing we know about you is that you date 23 year old models or whatever. Right.

[David Sims]

And that's why I can't make another joke. I'm sorry for this hack.

[Richard Lawson]

And I think that was such a smart. It was a great way into the joke. Yeah. You know, because he really. I don't know fucking anything about him.

[David Sims]

All I know about him is he has apparently one of the most incredible collections of movie posters like in Hollywood and the people like come to his house to see it because it's like really, really highly regarded and there's like,

[Richard Lawson]

they're like they're thumbtacked to the walls.

[David Sims]

Yeah. They're all on blue tag. No, it's just like that's the one thing I know about Leo because people, I've heard people say like, oh yeah. And then he, you get, you get to see his movie post and I'm

[Richard Lawson]

assuming this home is in Los Angeles. Like, I don't even know that. Like where, like, it's a good question.

[David Sims]

What if it's in like Omaha? I have.

[Richard Lawson]

No, no, no.

[David Sims]

Yes.

[Richard Lawson]

And I think it's to his advantage like that he, that you, you can watch him in a movie and yes, you are receiving some like known Leoness, but like he can kind of really fit himself to a movie's knees. Right?

[David Sims]

Sure.

[Richard Lawson]

But I also find myself kind of like yearning for a little bit of a deeper context with him.

[Allison Wilmore]

Right. He has no public facing Persona at all really, aside from like he's Leonardo DiCaprio. He loves models, he loves running on

[David Sims]

the beach and he loves movies and he likes environmentalism. For a while, that was the only Leo thing, was it was like, well, he loves like electric car.

[Richard Lawson]

That was his chosen personality.

[David Sims]

I mean, that's why the Jennifer Lawrence video with him, where the variety actors and actors where she is clearly trying to get as much of a rise out of him as she can, is so interesting because she is fearless about it because she's an A list actor who's about to work with him. She almost gets him a couple times and that's why everyone loved him at the Golden Globes. Talking to it is Tayanna.

[Griffin Newman]

Right.

[David Sims]

Like where he got his personality right. You see him being silly.

[Allison Wilmore]

Yeah.

[David Sims]

Because he's talking about like K Pop demon hunters with her or whatever.

[Griffin Newman]

Can we sidebar on Leo's Oscar history because I remember I had a friend in college who was a huge Leo fan and was so invested in Leo getting snubbed constantly.

[Allison Wilmore]

Yeah.

[David Sims]

Not winning.

[Richard Lawson]

Right.

[David Sims]

Yeah.

[Griffin Newman]

And then eventually he wins for the Revenant, which is a very harried and dramatic serious performance.

[David Sims]

Plus everything he went through. That was the year where he really liked, like, Press the Flesh. He.

[Richard Lawson]

He.

[David Sims]

He went all in. He gave dinners, he did all the campaigning and all that, Right?

[Richard Lawson]

Yeah.

[Griffin Newman]

Do you think he has any shot this year?

[Richard Lawson]

No, no, no, no. I don't think he would. I think he's 4 or 5. Like, I think he's pretty low down.

[David Sims]

I just think because he. Because he's won. And I think everyone takes him for granted.

[Richard Lawson]

The Academy takes him for granted. And I think that that taking for granted sort of is sourced in an original resentment. So, like, when he first. His first Oscar nomination in 1993, I believe was for what's Eating Gilbert Green, you know, and that performance has arguably not stood the test of time. It's a good performance.

[David Sims]

Yeah.

[Richard Lawson]

Whether it's representative of anything in the real world, who knows? But, like. But back then, I think that the Academy was like, oh, here's this, like, stringy, interesting kid who did this big transformation. Let's keep an eye on him.

[David Sims]

Totally.

[Richard Lawson]

And then just a couple years later, he emerges as what Allyson and I were like. And that's when the Academy is like, this guy, this pretty boy, blah, blah, you know, and they really treat him like that. They. They will nominate him for things.

[David Sims]

No, but they. But they stopped him for Titanic.

[Richard Lawson]

Yeah, they stump him for Titanic. You know, they.

[Allison Wilmore]

He does also, like, the era. Right.

[Richard Lawson]

Like, the posse thing was happening.

[David Sims]

I think there was a lot of resistance to, like, you're. You're right. You're a teen idol, not a great actor. And, like, you know, Matt Damon gets nominated Best Actor the year. The Titanic year.

[Richard Lawson]

Right.

[David Sims]

And, like, I mean, Damon's good in Good While Hunting.

[Richard Lawson]

Yeah. But he kind of.

[David Sims]

But, like, that's them being like, well, we thought this was good. This guy's acting. You are just pretty, you know, like, it really felt that way because, like, Titanic, everything else gets nominated, you know, for the screenplay. Hilarious.

[Richard Lawson]

The Pussy Posse thing, which, you know, was sort of coined in this Nancy Jo Sales article for New York Magazine back in the late 90s, is a fascinating time capsule to read. If anyone listening has not read it, please go seek it out. It's. It's really interesting. And, you know, Leo does not. It's called Leo, Prince of the City, I think.

[Allison Wilmore]

But it is about, I guess if you don't know what the pussy posse is, it is about this like, oh,

[Richard Lawson]

him, Tobey Maguire, some other folks.

[David Sims]

Lucas Haas. Lucas Haas best friend.

[Richard Lawson]

David Blaine at some point, I believe

[Allison Wilmore]

was in the other.

[Richard Lawson]

But then he disappeared.

[Allison Wilmore]

Yeah. And they were just like, they were notorious for like going out and raising hell.

[Richard Lawson]

And there's apparently a film called Don's Plum that they made a friend of theirs directed, definitely that like Leo has actively worked to bury. There's like offensive stuff in it, whatever. So I can understand, given that that was his origin story and Ben, that he was struggling to get like really serious consideration in the industry, that now he has completely been like, I don't give you anything of my personal life or my personality because like, I did that when I was a kid. And look, if you're that goddamn good looking and you're making that much money and in these, like, I can't say what I would have acted like. Probably not. Well, you know, he seems to have somewhat reformed, but. Yeah. So his privacy is based on something that like when he used to live very publicly. And so I get it, but the

[David Sims]

way the Oscars treated him, I just feel like they were like, you're fine. You don't need us. Like, you're already a big star.

[Richard Lawson]

And he was earning like he could open movies.

[Griffin Newman]

Totally.

[Richard Lawson]

Yeah. Big directors really wanted to work with him.

[David Sims]

He gets snubbed for Titanic, fine, they snub him again for Catch Me if youf Can. But that's the sort of dual year with Gangster New York where he gets kind of bad reviews. And I feel like there was just a little bit of like there was

[Richard Lawson]

confusion about Wait your turn. Yeah.

[David Sims]

And then he gets the second nom for the Aviator, which is like this level up project for him. He produces the movie. He works with Martin Scorsese again. He plays Howard Hughes, he plays a Holly. And that I feel like is when the Oscars started to be like, fine, you are now in the club. You will get your nominations. Like, you're a consistent presence.

[Richard Lawson]

But don't, don't you know you're going to wait for a win.

[David Sims]

You're going to wait for a win. But still, like Blood Diamond, Wolf of Wall Street, Revenant. Yeah, you know, like, well, it was a long gap between Blood diamond and Wolf of Wall street. But I feel like that's when Leo's making movies kind of angling for an Oscar that aren't, you know, aren't really connecting Like a J. Edgar or whatever.

[Richard Lawson]

Or he's making things like Inception that won the Nobel.

[David Sims]

Won the Nobel Prize for Trigun. You know, Departed revolutionary. Like Revolutionary Road and J. Edgar both feel like Oscar plays where everyone was like, well, sorry, yeah.

[Richard Lawson]

And like, this, like, Winslet didn't even get, like, movie is horrendous.

[Allison Wilmore]

Michael Shannon did, right?

[Richard Lawson]

Michael Shannon did.

[David Sims]

He's not.

[Richard Lawson]

Well, yeah, I hate that movie. But, like, also, Departed was a. Was a significant turning point for him in one way, which. And, you know, whatever. But I remember seeing that movie in the theater, and when Leo first shows up, kind of scruffy, like, I was like, wah, wah, wee, wah. He's a man. Like, he. It was when he grew up, you know, and then he could kind of reshape his sort of star Persona and it. And that kind of thing is what led him to be able to do the Revenant incredibly, I think, think for people.

[David Sims]

Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. I mean, and obviously, like, you know, it's just the Hollywood thing of, like, especially when you look at Leo's career, like, he just would work with giant directors, get giant movies made, and they would usually make a ton of money, and there's just not a lot of people doing that, especially as the 2010s come along.

[Richard Lawson]

Is there, like, a biggie director he hasn't worked with yet? Like, he's done Nolan, Spielberg, TTA was

[David Sims]

definitely the big, like, can he check that one off?

[Richard Lawson]

Right? Yeah.

[David Sims]

Because they've been circling each other all the way back to Boogie Night.

[Allison Wilmore]

Yeah. Everyone's Adam Shank.

[David Sims]

I don't. I don't know.

[Allison Wilmore]

I mean, I think the question is more just like, there are not that many big directors.

[David Sims]

Well, the question is also is, could he work with a woman? He hasn't worked with a female director basically, ever, like, very, very long, which

[Richard Lawson]

is a kind of stain on his wrist.

[David Sims]

Some people point that out, like, you know, I mean, again, you know, we. We hold movie actors sometimes to, like, you know, these weird sort of like, why haven't you done this? And I'm like, I don't know. He's a movie actor.

[Allison Wilmore]

I mean, he also just. I mean, is someone who has liked a big paycheck.

[David Sims]

He usually will get your. He'll get a big paycheck.

[Allison Wilmore]

And that has affected the particular types of movies that he has made.

[Richard Lawson]

Ye. It's like $20 million or.

[David Sims]

But I think it's partly because directors come to him being like, I want to make you.

[Allison Wilmore]

Exactly.

[David Sims]

And even I, Christopher Nolan, might need you. Leonardo DiCaprio to actually get $200 million for my dream thief. You know what I mean?

[Allison Wilmore]

I can't explain this movie. Like, in an elevator pitch. Are you kidding? It takes me at least 10 minutes to explain the premise.

[David Sims]

Right. The movie is an instruction manual.

[Richard Lawson]

Paris folds on itself.

[David Sims]

It sure does.

[Allison Wilmore]

Well, I mean, I think the thing that is interesting to me about Leo's recent choices are the ways in which those parts. I mean, like Ernest Burkhart in Killers of the Flower Moon, and particularly the narrative of Killers where they were like, he's not going to be the proto FBI agent. And that's like, the movie's gonna be based around that. Like, the initial envisioning. You know, we're going to reshape this movie to be driven by the indigenous characters.

[David Sims]

It's rude that they stumped him for that, too. He's so good in that.

[Allison Wilmore]

But he's playing these characters that, like, are deliberately. Yes. Like, no longer the center of the story. Right. Like, I mean, the funny thing about, like, Bob Ferguson is that he is like this floundering character in the middle of all of this action. Right. Constantly, like, he is not the one driving things forward in any way anymore. And it's a funny performance, I think. But that is also probably the reason that it was number five. Like, he's like four or five. And the kind of like the. The like chances of winning.

[David Sims]

But I also, the main thing is also just that he's won. If he hadn't won an Oscar, he'd be winning this year.

[Richard Lawson]

Right.

[David Sims]

Like, it's just, you know, the longer it takes, its. Why Bradley Cooper is going to play like a bucket with a face drawn on it at some point and they'll be like, we have to give you an Oscar. You have 14 nominations. Like, it's gotten out of hand.

[Richard Lawson]

Right.

[David Sims]

You know, like, there just comes a point where they're like, they're sweating like, Amy Adams. It'll happen to her someday. Or, well.

[Richard Lawson]

Well, I don't know.

[David Sims]

She may have actually, like, thrown a witch down a well or something.

[Richard Lawson]

I don't know what happened. Yeah, yeah.

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[David Sims]

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[David Sims]

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[David Sims]

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[Richard Lawson]

Oh, blank check.

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[David Sims]

That's true.

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[David Sims]

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[David Sims]

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[Richard Lawson]

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[David Sims]

Okay. Are you Hugh Jackman?

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[David Sims]

This is weird.

[Richard Lawson]

Is it?

[David Sims]

It's a little awkward. Do Gray Scott. You're married to someone? I was recently Claire for Lonnie. Yeah. Love it.

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[Griffin Newman]

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[David Sims]

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[Allison Wilmore]

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[David Sims]

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[Richard Lawson]

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[David Sims]

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[Richard Lawson]

All right, so predictions. I Feel like we could focus on this. The quote unquote, big six.

[David Sims]

Sure. I will only be focusing.

[Allison Wilmore]

We. We're writers. We're writers. We can't dismiss writing.

[Richard Lawson]

So that's adaptive. Screenplay, original screenplay, supporting actors, lead actors, director. Pick picture. Right.

[Allison Wilmore]

Yeah.

[David Sims]

Y.

[Richard Lawson]

So I'm assuming we're all exactly on the same page.

[David Sims]

I'm very stressed out about the. Yeah.

[Allison Wilmore]

I don't know.

[Richard Lawson]

It's hard to.

[Allison Wilmore]

It's a. I feel very. Yeah.

[Richard Lawson]

It's a year where there are so a few like Stone Cold Certainties for me and then other categories where it's just like, I. I genuinely have no idea.

[David Sims]

Right. I mean, F1 best picture locked.

[Richard Lawson]

It would already everything that.

[Allison Wilmore]

Yeah.

[Richard Lawson]

Yeah. Let's. Let's start with screenplays.

[Allison Wilmore]

Okay.

[Richard Lawson]

Okay. Because I feel like that's kind of.

[Allison Wilmore]

I mean, it just feels like. Yeah.

[David Sims]

Like that's the easiest sinners in one battle.

[Allison Wilmore]

Like we'll split it. Yeah.

[Richard Lawson]

And that was reflected at the WGA Awards this past weekend.

[David Sims]

Now I assume at the wga Sentimental value and it was just an accident. Were not in contention. Right. Cuz wgas tend to not be able to feature international movies. And like, I've seen the argument of like, oh, could it was just an accident. Win here as the sort of like award for Jafar Panahi. That's the only real sort of argument I can see against sinners winning. But I have predicted sinners from the beginning.

[Griffin Newman]

Yeah.

[Allison Wilmore]

It feels like. And also, I don't know. I mean, I can understand people wanting to give an award to Panahi, but I just don't feel like the momentum has been.

[David Sims]

No, the movie did.

[Allison Wilmore]

With that movie.

[David Sims]

I mean, the movie did great. It won the Palm Door.

[Richard Lawson]

It was the Palme d'.

[David Sims]

Or.

[Allison Wilmore]

It's not short of praise.

[David Sims]

Yeah, but. Right. It did not quite connect on the Oscar level we had predicted maybe a few months prior.

[Richard Lawson]

Yeah. I mean, in a way, my favorites of the year. Well, I think it's a brilliant movie, but like one. One might think, well, you know, what's going on with Iran right now would lead people to that movie. But I kind of think the opposite might have been true. You know, during voting where people were like, I don't want to deal with that.

[David Sims]

I have no idea. But I. I think Sinners. You know, this is. I pointed this out, but like, this is where Spike Lee won his Oscar. This is where Jordan Peele won his Oscar. They often get. Yeah, yeah, Right, right, right. This sort of like fresh young. Well, Spike Lee's not A fresh young director. But, like.

[Richard Lawson]

But like the cool. Like, we're not gonna give you best director. So we'll give you this as the kind of consolation prize. Which is sort of ironic because I think we all think that Paul Thomas Anderson is winning for adapted screenplay, where he's also the front runner director. But.

[David Sims]

But I mean, he. As a work of adaptation, this is the strongest.

[Richard Lawson]

Well. Cause he changed a lot. Right.

[David Sims]

Like, interesting adaptation, obviously. It's also just right. It's a. It's a. You know, the writing of the film is the standout.

[Richard Lawson]

And he said in some interview like 10 years ago, like, he was asked about favorite books or something, and he was like, oh, Vineland, which is the Pinchin novel, is really high up there. I'm either gonna adapt it or just rip. Rip it off. Like, you know, like. And he went the former route.

[David Sims]

But I mean, I guess Hamnet is sort of the nominal runner up there.

[Richard Lawson]

But that was like.

[David Sims]

But I do feel like, for one, Chloe Zhao has an Oscar or. Or two, possibly two.

[Richard Lawson]

I want to say. Yeah.

[David Sims]

And I just feel like the Hamnet, you know, juices.

[Allison Wilmore]

Yeah.

[David Sims]

It's not loose.

[Allison Wilmore]

Yeah, yeah. Yes.

[Richard Lawson]

Hamnet Juice.

[Allison Wilmore]

Yeah.

[Richard Lawson]

This week's episode is brought to you by Hamnet Juice. Miss your kid. Try Hamnet. Yeah. Tears.

[Allison Wilmore]

All right, so we've settled that.

[Richard Lawson]

Yeah. Scream, I think. I think those are locked. I don't think.

[Allison Wilmore]

Yeah, it's also, like, the least helpful in terms of, like, the biggest kind of problem there. Like.

[David Sims]

Yeah, there's one for.

[Sponsor/Ad Reader]

Right.

[David Sims]

For the two biggest movies.

[Griffin Newman]

Right.

[Allison Wilmore]

All right, well, then let's do supporting actor. Supporting actress for actress. I'm going to go Tiana.

[David Sims]

I think it's a call. I think it's a solid call. It's sort of. She was so great when she won the Globe and it felt like.

[Allison Wilmore]

Great.

[David Sims]

Is this it? Like, are we going to do a bunch of Tiana speeches? This is going to rock. And then. It's been such a funny season. So Madigan won the SAG and the Critics Choice. Critics Choice. And the. When we won the bafta. Yeah, Right. Elle won nothing.

[Richard Lawson]

No, she gets nothing.

[David Sims]

The Sentinel value Girls win nothing.

[Richard Lawson]

No, no, they win nothing.

[David Sims]

Not even their father's love or in El Fanning, sort of a, you know, kind of a father figure. Right.

[Richard Lawson]

Well, there's. They're splitting the vote in theory.

[David Sims]

Sure.

[Richard Lawson]

Yeah. I'm predicting. So I have predictions, formal predictions on premierparty.com, my newsletter. Please go read it. Subscribe all that. I'm predicting Madigan only Because Madigan thus far has won two of the televised awards. Not the critics choice has any Academy

[David Sims]

for whatever Sick Freaks wanted to see that.

[Richard Lawson]

And SAG does have significant overlap with the Academy.

[David Sims]

Yeah.

[Richard Lawson]

So does the bafta. So Masaku is definitely not out. Out of it. But I think that she had a little hometown advantage in the UK rewatching Sinners for last week's episode. Her part is not, I think, quite substantial enough, but I could be totally wrong. She's great in it.

[David Sims]

She's so good in it.

[Griffin Newman]

It's.

[David Sims]

It's sort of, you know, she has two, like killer scenes.

[Richard Lawson]

Yeah, yeah.

[Griffin Newman]

She's.

[Richard Lawson]

She's great throughout, obviously, whereas Madigan kind of walks away with the last.

[David Sims]

The argument against Madigan is the sort of like the. The relative rarity of the one nomination movie, you know, nabbing a big award. But it does happen.

[Allison Wilmore]

Yeah.

[Richard Lawson]

And a horror thing. That's right.

[Allison Wilmore]

In a movie that's not really wanting to give that movie something also.

[David Sims]

I agree. I will predict Madigan kind of like very kind of tentatively though.

[Richard Lawson]

I think this is the hardest of the acting categories I would agree with. Yeah, yeah. I think it's about.

[David Sims]

She's also. She is like. She's mild royalty. Like, I know people don't talk about Amy Madigan much, but like, you know, she's a really respected no name.

[Allison Wilmore]

Yeah.

[David Sims]

Two older voters and she's got a

[Richard Lawson]

nomination like 40 years ago.

[David Sims]

She did. And she's married to a very well known person and she's like been at the Oscars many times. And I just think, like, I think so many people in the Academy love that story of like Craig being like, knock, knock.

[Richard Lawson]

Yeah.

[David Sims]

Semi retired, like, good actor. I wrote a part essentially for you. You want to do it, you know,

[Richard Lawson]

and then purchase parts and nailing it. Yeah, yeah. And like it. Making a lot of money. And she's handled it well. Her speeches have been good. So. So that's why I'm predicting her. But this is also one of those great categories where it's like, I'd be happy if any of these people won.

[Allison Wilmore]

Yeah.

[Richard Lawson]

All right. Supporting actor. I think we talked a little bit about this last week maybe, but Kyle Buchanan has been saying since December that his conversations in la. Sean Penn had this in September. And it's never wavered, even though critics groups gave things to Benicio. And it's been Stellan one somewhere.

[David Sims]

Right. The way it's broken out is like the critics groups largely went for Benicio. The critics choice went to Jacob Elordi, the Golden Globe went to Stellan Skarsgard. SAG and BAFTA both went to Penn.

[Griffin Newman]

Who won?

[David Sims]

Who won?

[Richard Lawson]

They did. Yeah. Yeah.

[David Sims]

So that's been.

[Richard Lawson]

Which is, like, where he reemerges as, like, oh, he was the front row the whole time.

[David Sims]

And then there is the mystery thing of, like. And then, like, the Oscars just threw Delroy Lindo in there. Like, where, like, some people are even kind of drawn to, like, could he just kind of, like, out of nowhere,

[Richard Lawson]

you know, I mean, some of the brutally honest ballots I've read across various outlets recently, more than a few said Delray Lindo was their vote. You know, who knows? That's not representative of anything necessarily. But again, with Lindo, who is great in his movie, was Definitely overlooked for Da 5 Bloods a few years ago. And of course, I'm sure that there is some mind toward correcting that, you know, egregious oversight. But Pen is in much more of the movie, and he is somebody, despite all of his weird personal shit like that. The Academy really obviously likes him a lot. And, yeah, to me, the argument on

[David Sims]

him is something of a Pen. It is a little bit. Sorry, Alison, what do you want to say?

[Allison Wilmore]

Well, I was just gonna say it's also, like, it feels like a classic supporting role in that it's just like a bigger, like, I think, borderline cartoonish at times performance. Like, it's this kind of, like, outsized caricature. He's really good, and he really leans into that. And I feel like.

[David Sims]

And the existence of RFK Jr really is another one where you're just like, did he know about this?

[Richard Lawson]

That scene where he runs over that bas air and then puts it in its freezer.

[Allison Wilmore]

They both have this kind of reddishness, this, like, underlying kind of like. Like they've been holding their breath and bracing for a long time. Just, like, permanently.

[Richard Lawson]

And the physical. I mean, there's a physical aspect to the, you know, the. The transformation. Why do you wear. Why is your T shirt so tight?

[David Sims]

I. So you guys are predicting Pat?

[Richard Lawson]

Yeah. What about you?

[Allison Wilmore]

I, I, I think I actually, I just. Based on total nothing, Just a whim. I'm gonna go with scars because.

[David Sims]

Okay, I'm torn because I've long figured Skarsgrd. It's just the kind of performance they love. It's a similar, you know, it's a career award, which, like, he's really everywhere. And, like, he's gone from, like, reliable Hollywood guy plays, you know, grumps, to kind of like, he's in every franchise. He's sort of a delightful grandpa. Like, the mamma Mia. Thing really transformed him into, like, he can be funny, like, he can be jockey. And then like, he gives interviews where he's very candid. He has an army of children that we all worship. Like, all the, you know, just the kind of.

[Allison Wilmore]

He and Alexander were kind of like on the film festival circuit together.

[Richard Lawson]

He sits at the head of the table in Valhalla. Yeah.

[Allison Wilmore]

Basically with all of his enormous sons.

[David Sims]

And obviously also Oscar's over indexed on sentimental value has me looking for, like, do they want to get ignored? So I'm predicting him, but kind of again, like, very weakly, like, I don't really know.

[Allison Wilmore]

This is based entirely on, like, a whim for me. Yeah, yeah, yeah.

[Richard Lawson]

The over indexing on sentimental is interesting.

[David Sims]

It's just that I over index on. They don't like to give people multiple Oscars, which I'm often wrong about. Like, I was wrong about emma Stone.

[Richard Lawson]

Frances McDormand.

[David Sims]

Her I saw coming, unfortunately. I love Frances McDormand.

[Richard Lawson]

Christoph Waltz.

[David Sims]

Yeah, that was a weird one because everyone had an Oscar, but still. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. But like a third Oscar for Sean Parker.

[Richard Lawson]

Third Oscar is a lot. And you have the opportunity to give Delroy Lindo or Stellan Skarsgard two guys who don't have a ton of years ahead of them.

[David Sims]

Ye.

[Richard Lawson]

Like, who have, you know, who are like these invaluable journeyman character actors from very different traditions. That would be exciting if either of them won. Lordy, congrats, kid. Like, you're tall.

[Allison Wilmore]

Yeah, yeah, he's very tall.

[Richard Lawson]

Don't hit your head. All right, so let's go into the look director. It's pca, right? Yeah, without a doubt.

[David Sims]

Yeah.

[Richard Lawson]

Or what about the Coogler case?

[Allison Wilmore]

Okay. I'm leaning towards Coogler, I think mainly out of like, maybe having, like, immersed myself in the discourse too much.

[Richard Lawson]

Yeah.

[Allison Wilmore]

I do feel like there has been notable pressure lately in terms of, like, pushing, like, how much. Even when a film from a black director wins best picture, like, do not win best.

[David Sims]

You know, it's happened and there is like.

[Allison Wilmore]

Yeah, like. Like what? Like no black filmmaker has ever won, right?

[Richard Lawson]

Yeah. 12 Years a Slave. McQueen and moonlight didn't.

[Allison Wilmore]

Yeah.

[Richard Lawson]

Either.

[Allison Wilmore]

And so I feel like that weight of pressure. I mean, I feel like it's so obviously like these bigger. The biggest awards are, like, going to be split between these two movies. Or like the, like, the choice is between these two, like, kind of movies that have been in that, like, the lead of nominations have been in the lead of the discussions forever. Yeah. So I'm just kind of thinking, I don't know, maybe be this.

[Richard Lawson]

No, I. I think you're. I think there's. There is a possibility will happen. I also think, I think that you, David and Griffin have talked about this on Blank Check. The Ray Fines problem where people. I think someone off stage, people are

[David Sims]

like, oh, he already won.

[Richard Lawson]

Yeah, like, sure. Well, Ray Fines. No, he got one in the 90s for one of those.

[David Sims]

PTA hasn't won. I think so much of his narrative is like, how. How does. This is. This is out of control.

[Richard Lawson]

We gotta fix this.

[David Sims]

I. I think he's a mortal luck.

[Richard Lawson]

Whereas I'm sure voters think, like, Coogler has definitely an Oscar in him.

[David Sims]

Cougar's also like 12 years old. Like, I mean, like, it's part of his charm where you're just like, how are you so young? You've made so many hits. I think he's like my age. He's. What is he, like 38, 39? He's.

[Richard Lawson]

That's what he is. A month younger than that's young for.

[David Sims]

And I've only made $2 million movies.

[Richard Lawson]

Right, that's true.

[David Sims]

You gotta get on, pick up the pace.

[Richard Lawson]

And D has posters of both of them. Him in his home.

[David Sims]

I just think Coogler. I think PTA is a lock for director. Of course. Prove me wrong, Academy. I mean, maybe he loses, but.

[Richard Lawson]

Yeah. And again, we are not saying what we want to win. We're just kind of trying to think with the Academy's psychology in mind. That said, let's move on to the acting, the lead acting categories. I think Bass Dasher is total toss up. No one has any idea.

[David Sims]

Yeah, it's not rhymes, but I mean,

[Allison Wilmore]

it has made it such a kind of like, weird, boring blank spot, you know, where you're just like, there's more.

[Richard Lawson]

The exciting thing was like, will Rose Byrne get in as a nominee?

[Allison Wilmore]

Right, right. And I love that she did get in. I mean, but, yeah, like, there was never. There's just been so little question about Jesse Buckley being the winner.

[Griffin Newman]

What leads to that level of confidence? Because I've heard that too from all season. But, like, where exactly does that come from? Is it just everyone talking to each other?

[Richard Lawson]

It's an intuition. I mean, like, that movie Hamnet premiered at Telluray and the word from on the mountain was like, oh, she's pretty good in that.

[David Sims]

No, the word was Oscar.

[Richard Lawson]

Yeah, yeah.

[David Sims]

And it's never changed.

[Richard Lawson]

And then I. Yeah, I think I saw, I saw it in, in Toronto and I was like, oh, right, that's so obvious that she's gonna win. And I don't. Can't really.

[David Sims]

Here's what it.

[Richard Lawson]

Explain what that is.

[David Sims]

But it, it's just perfect in every way. Like one, does she play like a wife who cries? Oscars are like, you know, it's the Vince McMahon meme where they're like, yeah, cries. And I'm not trying to dismiss the. I'm just talk like the sort of the cold bloodedness of the Academy. Like two, is she like a youngish actress, aka in her 30s, established, but still coming up like sort of an ingenue. They love that, you know, but then like, but leaping to a new level. And three is like, she a prior nominee. So it's kind of like, great, here's your, you know, it's Emma Stone. It's just like, here you go, you've proven all your bonafides and like now you're the best actress this year.

[Richard Lawson]

She's classy, she's from a different country, you know, all of that.

[David Sims]

And the competition is fairly weak. No offense to it. Like, it's like, you know, it's a bunch of weird movies.

[Richard Lawson]

I mean, I think that also a lot of the other, you know, contenders, like, I think that, I mean, I don't know this, but it just has felt this way that I think a lot of the studios, distributors behind the other nominees, they saw Buckley in Telluride and were like, rose, we'll do a campaign for you, but we're not gonna like, you're not gonna win this. So like, I think they kind of, of like put their. Took their foot off the gas a little.

[David Sims]

I mean, like, you know, you know, right. Like burn Roseburn, who'd be my winner? Her movie's quite hostile. Nomination feels like the reward. Kate Hudson. It's also kind of the nomination feels like the reward where they're like, you know, good job sticking around. Like in after like years in the wilderness.

[Allison Wilmore]

I mean that was a movie that like, like people no one was like taking very seriously otherwise.

[David Sims]

But it did save money and like, you know, bought interest. She hit the campaign.

[Allison Wilmore]

Sam Sanders made a very good case, a very compelling case for Kate Hudson in that movie. So. Which I appreciate.

[David Sims]

No, I mean, I like, but I do think the nom is the reward and you know, like, Emma Stone does deserve a third Oscar for Begonia, I think, and it's sad that she won't get one. Emma Stone winning the Oscar for Begonia. As her would be. I think she would be like, can we. Can we double check? Don't make me go off.

[Richard Lawson]

She would be in the audience like, no, I'm good.

[Sponsor/Ad Reader]

I'm good.

[Allison Wilmore]

That's all right. Someone else who was number two, Scotty

[David Sims]

go up or someone. And then, like, Renata, like, I love her. I guess there's a world where you could argue for her in terms of, like, she's also, like, been around for a little while now, and she's proving herself over and over again. But, like, it's a. It's a more internal performance. It's an ensemble rather, you know, like, it's.

[Richard Lawson]

It's the Academy saying, look, we obviously liked Worst Person. We gave it a couple nominations. We did not nominate you, but we did see. We saw you, and now you're here and welcome and good luck in the future. But we're not.

[David Sims]

You know, I think it's a little bit of that.

[Richard Lawson]

Yeah, Yeah.

[David Sims]

I mean, it's just. It's just she's.

[Richard Lawson]

She.

[David Sims]

She goes through every single bit.

[Allison Wilmore]

Right. It's a very big performance.

[David Sims]

I just. They love that.

[Richard Lawson]

And when Jessie Buckley is on stage and devour getting devoured by cats that someone has set loose, then we'll have. We'll have our Oscars cheer moment.

[Allison Wilmore]

Yeah, it'll be really beautiful.

[Richard Lawson]

Yeah. All right, Best Actor is where I think my predictions on Premier again on PremiereParty.com, run into some trouble because, like, I am predicting Chalamet to win. And I know that people would say,

[Allison Wilmore]

like, he has been the front runner,

[Richard Lawson]

except that he didn't win bafta, he didn't win sag. But as we sort of teased earlier in this episode, BAFTA was a homegrown kid for a British movie that they liked and was a hit.

[Allison Wilmore]

And sag, of course, that worked out very well.

[Richard Lawson]

He had won, like, he'd won the press.

[David Sims]

And I do think that matters. Like, I'm, like, I don't think it matters at SAG if they had won 20 years ago, but they voted for him last year. I do think SAG voters take that into account.

[Richard Lawson]

I agree. And I think that they.

[David Sims]

Who'd they give it to again?

[Richard Lawson]

Sag? Michael B. Jordan.

[David Sims]

Oh, yeah. That was cool.

[Richard Lawson]

Which is why. Which is why, you know, and, like,

[David Sims]

that was pretty cool.

[Richard Lawson]

And. No, it's great that Jordan won. I would be thrilled to see Michael B. Jordan win at the Oscars. He's, you know, one of our few movie stars remaining.

[David Sims]

Yeah, totally.

[Richard Lawson]

And it's exciting that he kind of is Leveling up with this. I mean, I think he's been.

[David Sims]

And it's also like. Again. Again, like. Right. You're using your clout to make something interesting. Yeah.

[Richard Lawson]

And. And may he continue to do that.

[Allison Wilmore]

And he's playing twins.

[Richard Lawson]

Yeah. So this, again, this is not who I want to win necessarily. It's just that, like, it's a thing.

[David Sims]

I want him to win.

[Allison Wilmore]

Yeah. Also, I know that you're secretly club Chalamet.

[Richard Lawson]

Here's why I want.

[David Sims]

Well, she abandoned him.

[Allison Wilmore]

Yeah. I think she's rivalry.

[Richard Lawson]

Yeah. Yeah.

[Allison Wilmore]

That's sad. That's actually like.

[David Sims]

That is some German esque.

[Richard Lawson]

That is like. I mean, honestly, Benedict Arnold.

[Allison Wilmore]

I mean, like, I feel like there is maybe no more sign that, like, the guide is turned for Timothy Chalamet, abandoned by his biggest, potentially scariest fan.

[Richard Lawson]

Partly. Potentially. Yeah. Part of why I want. If I did want Chalamet to win, why I would want him to win is like, it would be so nice and lifting of a burden if going forward there wasn't this fucking Chalamet Oscar discourse around everything he did.

[Griffin Newman]

True.

[David Sims]

Like, in kind of similar with the Scorpio experience.

[Richard Lawson]

Yes.

[David Sims]

Of like, he made another big movie. You're gonna do it this time.

[Richard Lawson]

Let's get it out of the way.

[David Sims]

I gotta eat a liver for you to, you know, actually do it. And I do feel like this is such a, like, dominant, like, performance in a big movie they ostensibly liked. Although no one's talking about Marty supreme lately, but they gave it a bunch of noms and all that. And. And he's, you know, in practically every bit of the movie.

[Richard Lawson]

Yeah.

[David Sims]

He does. Goes through every emotion. He got it to, like, basically 100 domestic. This is a movie about table tennis in the 50s. Like, these are. These are feats of stardom. Like, Leo didn't get one battle to 100 domestic.

[Richard Lawson]

No.

[David Sims]

Like, so all these things are things you'd think matter. I would predict him, but I don't know.

[Richard Lawson]

I don't.

[David Sims]

I can't. The vibe shift does feel quite profound here.

[Richard Lawson]

And. And Jordan does have the win at an overlap. Like, there's a lot. Like, the actors are the biggest branch of the academy. They gave him the actor prize for. For to, you know, they gave that to Jordan. So, like, by the numbers, you'd be like, well, Jordan is definitely the front runner. And I think a lot of the odds on like Gold Derby are saying that. And look, again, I could be totally wrong. I just have this. That like, kind of almost like with Sean Penn before, you know, he Once started winning things, it's like maybe Chalamet's kind of been in the front the whole time and we just didn't know it. But.

[David Sims]

But sometimes that can get people sick of you.

[Allison Wilmore]

Yeah, I mean, I feel like he has been in the front the whole time.

[David Sims]

Yeah, I think so.

[Allison Wilmore]

I'm gonna do the chaos pick. I'm gonna do Wagner Mora.

[David Sims]

I think that's a fine pick because that has, you know, look, I mean, at the New York Film Critics Circle, he triumphed in a three way battle that was very close. I mean, that's a lot of.

[Allison Wilmore]

I feel like he has been floating in like second to third this whole time, like for a while. And I feel like there is a world in which the, like the split votes for these, like multiple famous people end up kind of like leaving space for. And I feel like it also the just the ways in which it would just rile up the discourse.

[David Sims]

It would be very interesting.

[Richard Lawson]

But no one could get mad about it.

[Allison Wilmore]

No one could get mad about it.

[Richard Lawson]

Really.

[David Sims]

It would be a little bit of bafflement from, you know, a sort of wider audience of like, wait, what's this one?

[Richard Lawson]

It's sort of like Olivia Colmanish, you know, in a way that more people had seen the favorite. But like, the thing about Olivia is

[David Sims]

she beat Glenn Close for a movie nobody liked or saw. Right. Like, everyone knows Glenn Close, but nobody liked the wife. Sorry, the wife. Don't come after me. The wife.

[Richard Lawson]

How dare you.

[Allison Wilmore]

Wife stands.

[David Sims]

Don't throw peanuts at me on the airplane. Doesn't that happen in that movie? The same thing with an airplane.

[Allison Wilmore]

I've never seen the wife.

[Richard Lawson]

Max Irons, isn't it?

[David Sims]

He is doing something. So there was that kind of instant shock of like, oh, Glenn lost. Oh, no. And then Olivia gets up, gives the greatest Oscar speech basically of all time, and everyone sort of just exits. Beat Being like, that rocked. Who's Glenn Close? Anyone ever heard of her? Like, whereas this, I think would be kind of like Wagner beating Leo, Michael B. Jordan, Timmy, even Ethan Hawke, like, who's like, you know, arguably somewhat due as well. Like, people would be like, what the hell?

[Richard Lawson]

Yeah. Ethan Hawke's first ever lead nomination. Sure.

[David Sims]

He's only got three acting nominations.

[Richard Lawson]

Training Day, boyhood in this, boyhood and this.

[David Sims]

Right?

[Griffin Newman]

Yeah.

[David Sims]

And then he's got two screenplay nominations for the before, right?

[Richard Lawson]

Yeah, yeah, yeah. Well, anyway, so I again, I think we're all picking someone different or. No, you're saying Chalamet too.

[Allison Wilmore]

You guys are both Chalamet.

[Richard Lawson]

Okay.

[Allison Wilmore]

And Mora.

[David Sims]

I'm like a very soft, soft, soft chalamet. Jay, just to be clear.

[Richard Lawson]

Let's split it up. Yeah.

[Allison Wilmore]

Let's cover our bases.

[David Sims]

Because I really. Timmy is the one where I feel the vibe shift a little harder. Even though, like. Right. My logicy brain of like, SAG is. Well, he won last year, you know, like, that doesn't mean like that much. Like, I. I don't know. I do feel it a little bit in the water.

[Richard Lawson]

Yeah. And SAG doesn't always translate, you know.

[David Sims]

No. SAG is insane. They gave him only Blunt an award for the Quiet Place. They gave Idris Elba best supporting actor for Beast of no Nation. Right. Like, they've had some, like, pretty, like, out there wins.

[Allison Wilmore]

Yeah, yeah.

[David Sims]

Right. There's probably some others I'm not thinking of.

[Richard Lawson]

Oh, no, there definitely are in SAG's past.

[Allison Wilmore]

All right, so. So let's. Let's call it. I feel like it's one battles, you know, so.

[David Sims]

Right. This is interesting. You think possibly Sinners would split in director, but one battle. I think one battle is fairly locked because of the pga, which I know is such a boring reason, but that was just sort of the one last thing I was looking for because the golf association. Yeah, right. I just need to know if it was very strong. No, because the PGA has a preferential ballot. This is the boring technical thing. Right. Like the same way that the Oscars do. That one battle won. That suggested for me what I've known all along, which is like, it's in everyone's top three, basically.

[Richard Lawson]

Yeah. The ranked analysis thing.

[David Sims]

A little bit more polarizing. Like, some people don't like a movie about vampires. Yeah.

[Richard Lawson]

You would probably assume that, like, the majority, like a majority of those ranked ballots were, you know, 1, 2, 3. But like. Yeah, one battle is somewhere toward the top. It's a lot of them. Whereas sinners probably has more yaw to like it's, you know, definitely many people's number one. But, like, maybe it's down to six or seven for other people. You know, it's.

[David Sims]

It's what I think will happen, happen. I don't actually think F1's going to win. I'm. I've got money on it, so, you know, I'm hoping. But big, big, big, big. Well, just so I'm just trying to imagine just like the next morning, waking up to Begonia Sweep, like, you know, with the weirdest, you know, because I

[Richard Lawson]

do think, what would. Would that be the weirdest train dreams

[Allison Wilmore]

all over the place.

[Richard Lawson]

Yeah.

[Allison Wilmore]

Yeah.

[David Sims]

I think Begonia would be the weirdest of the 10 to win best picture.

[Richard Lawson]

Sure.

[David Sims]

I mean, F1 would be somewhat laughable, but like. Yeah, I mean, good job, Begonia, getting those noms.

[Richard Lawson]

No, no, totally. I mean it really like held on. It held on.

[David Sims]

Like it came out. You know, festivals people were like, it's interesting. Like, yeah, pretty good. And then it came out and that was sort of the reaction again. And it made like some money.

[Richard Lawson]

Yeah.

[David Sims]

And it just kind of like it, you know, he's just got his sort of like fraction of the academy that's

[Richard Lawson]

very into his movie, but Gonia also. And you could probably argue F1 too. Like benefited from like a few other higher profile Oscars. Falling flat, like just completely dying.

[David Sims]

Totally.

[Richard Lawson]

Yeah. Weird year.

[David Sims]

Poor Jake.

[Richard Lawson]

But yeah, I. I am.

[David Sims]

They locked him in that basement.

[Richard Lawson]

Yeah.

[Allison Wilmore]

They never made that movie. I feel like it could have done really well.

[Richard Lawson]

And that basement was in a House of Dynamite. Oh my.

[David Sims]

I don't remember that one.

[Richard Lawson]

Remember that one? So I'm fucked on the vulture.

[David Sims]

I think I.

[Richard Lawson]

House of Dynamite.

[David Sims]

I have House of Dynamite somewhere. My problem was that I over indexed very early on, like before any reviews were happening on after the Hun. House of Dynamite as movies just that just felt like they would appeal to a sort of mid-50s crowd, you know, like movies that are about big serious topics by big serious directors in like fairly traditional kind of like.

[Richard Lawson]

Yeah.

[David Sims]

And then both of those movies did not go away.

[Allison Wilmore]

I did see, I did this cynical, wicked for good. I bought that. And that.

[David Sims]

Yeah, that was really.

[Allison Wilmore]

Did not work out. Did not work.

[David Sims]

Not biting on that movie is a triumph for the Academy.

[Allison Wilmore]

Yeah. It's a good job by them. Yeah.

[Richard Lawson]

Yeah. Zero. Yeah. So I'm predicting one battle battle. But if you know, Sinners is definitely a close number two, I would say.

[Griffin Newman]

Okay, so now for documentation purposes, I'm gonna run down the ones we just did and you're gonna tell me your picks. Yes. And then we'll do Lightning round for the rest of the categories. So Best Picture.

[Allison Wilmore]

One battle after another.

[Richard Lawson]

Same, same.

[Griffin Newman]

Best Director.

[Richard Lawson]

PTA.

[Allison Wilmore]

Ryan Coogler.

[David Sims]

PTA.

[Griffin Newman]

Best Act Actor.

[Richard Lawson]

Dr. Mora Timothee Chalamet.

[David Sims]

Michael B. Jordan.

[Griffin Newman]

Best Actress Jessie Buckley.

[Allison Wilmore]

For all of us.

[Richard Lawson]

Jesse Buckley, Agnes.

[Griffin Newman]

Best Supporting Actor Stellan Skarsgard.

[Richard Lawson]

Sean Penn.

[David Sims]

Stellan Skarsgard.

[Allison Wilmore]

Gotta commit. You gotta commit.

[Griffin Newman]

Best Supporting Actress.

[Richard Lawson]

Madigan.

[Allison Wilmore]

You're also Madigan, right? And I'm Tyana.

[Richard Lawson]

Yeah.

[Griffin Newman]

Best Original Screenplay.

[David Sims]

Sinners, Sinners, Sinners.

[Griffin Newman]

Best Adapted Screenplay.

[Richard Lawson]

One battle for another one battle yeah.

[Griffin Newman]

And now we move on to.

[David Sims]

Let's keep going.

[Allison Wilmore]

Power through.

[Griffin Newman]

Best Animated Feature.

[Allison Wilmore]

K Pop. Demon Hunter.

[David Sims]

Kpop Demon Hunters.

[Richard Lawson]

I did see one anonymous ballot that said I'll never vote for that K Pop movie, but I think that was one person. Anyway.

[Griffin Newman]

Best International Feature.

[David Sims]

Incredibly tough category, actually.

[Richard Lawson]

Sentimental value because they gave it so many other nominations.

[Allison Wilmore]

Secret Agent.

[David Sims]

I'm going Secret Agent, but I don't know.

[Griffin Newman]

Best Documentary Feature.

[Allison Wilmore]

Perfect name. Neighbor.

[Richard Lawson]

Mr. Nobody against Putin.

[David Sims]

I'm picking Perfect Neighbor. I'm not. Not very confident in that either.

[Allison Wilmore]

Yeah.

[Griffin Newman]

Best casting.

[David Sims]

Oh, sinners, sinners. Beyond anything else. Francine Mazler is a legend.

[Griffin Newman]

Best cinematography.

[Allison Wilmore]

Sinners.

[David Sims]

I am picking one battle after another, which is what every precursor.

[Allison Wilmore]

Okay.

[Griffin Newman]

Best Film editing.

[Allison Wilmore]

One battle.

[Richard Lawson]

Oh, yeah. One battle.

[Griffin Newman]

Best production to design.

[Allison Wilmore]

Frankenstein.

[David Sims]

Frankenstein.

[Richard Lawson]

Frankenstein.

[Griffin Newman]

Best costume design.

[Allison Wilmore]

Frankenstein.

[David Sims]

It's won all the precursors. Yeah.

[Griffin Newman]

Best makeup and hairstyling.

[Allison Wilmore]

Frankenstein.

[David Sims]

Frankenstein.

[Griffin Newman]

I, H. David, are you in the Kakuho hive?

[David Sims]

Yeah. I love Kakuho. The highest grossing liveaction Japanese film ever released.

[Griffin Newman]

I genuinely love Kakuho.

[David Sims]

I'm rooting for Kakuho here. I will pick. I will. Will pick Sinners. Just for fun.

[Allison Wilmore]

Okay. I like that.

[Griffin Newman]

Best original score.

[David Sims]

Sinners, Sinners, Sinners. That'll be his third little weeks, Sean Penn style.

[Griffin Newman]

Best original song.

[Allison Wilmore]

Golden.

[Richard Lawson]

Golden.

[David Sims]

A song I listen to every single day in my house.

[Griffin Newman]

Best sound.

[Allison Wilmore]

F1.

[Richard Lawson]

F1.

[Griffin Newman]

Best visual effects.

[David Sims]

Avatar.

[Griffin Newman]

Best animated short.

[Allison Wilmore]

I've seen none of these, so I'm.

[Richard Lawson]

I did predict these.

[Allison Wilmore]

Butterfly.

[Richard Lawson]

Butterfly. Because there's a sort of World War II holocaust each.

[Allison Wilmore]

Okay, fair enough.

[David Sims]

I, of course, will pick the girl who cried Pearls. Don't know.

[Allison Wilmore]

Okay.

[Griffin Newman]

Best live action short.

[Richard Lawson]

Two people exchanging saliva.

[David Sims]

Two people exchanging saliva. Singer seems to be the front row.

[Richard Lawson]

It's a little bit black. Mirrory. It has a conceit to it. Friend of Dorothy is. I watched it the other day.

[David Sims]

It's the one with Mary Margaret.

[Richard Lawson]

So that could win.

[Allison Wilmore]

I mean, they like the singers. Just because I saw Netflix take out an ad for it in Times Square.

[David Sims]

Oh, yeah, go for it. They're like, get those wins.

[Allison Wilmore]

Short.

[Griffin Newman]

Best documentary short.

[Richard Lawson]

All the empty rooms. Because it's about school shootings and it's from a guy who's, like, famous for being on TV news. So, like, he's kind of a celebrity.

[Allison Wilmore]

There you go.

[Richard Lawson]

But not that, I think Armed with only a camera, which is about journalists who died in Ukraine.

[Griffin Newman]

Okay, cool.

[Allison Wilmore]

Did it.

[Richard Lawson]

We did it on that cheery note.

[David Sims]

Yeah, we did.

[Richard Lawson]

Yeah. So don't hold Us to those. These are not legally binding.

[Allison Wilmore]

Yeah.

[Richard Lawson]

You're not responsible for your losses.

[Allison Wilmore]

Do make money on unlike market we demand 25% share. Actually.

[Griffin Newman]

I'm actually genuinely interested in you know, before the. The war in Iran started. There have been people profiting really handedly and under awful circumstances on these prediction markets. I know that PricewaterhouseCoopers is supposed to be like ultra secret.

[Richard Lawson]

Yeah.

[Griffin Newman]

But like how many.

[Richard Lawson]

How many people are counting those ballots and then have that.

[David Sims]

I think they do a good job locking it down.

[Richard Lawson]

But I have. Well, kind of unsettlingly Faye Dunaway and Warren Beatty just put $10 million each on yeah. Amconia. So that's uh. Oh, watch out.

[David Sims]

Faye Dunaway will.

[Richard Lawson]

As they shift in a suit.

[David Sims]

In a suit of tinfoil.

[Richard Lawson]

Yeah.

[David Sims]

Yeah.

[Griffin Newman]

Before we go, I want to ask the three of you just on paper, besides the Mario Galaxy movie, I know

[Allison Wilmore]

that's going to win a lot.

[David Sims]

My tickets are literally purchased. Not joking. My daughter is so excited.

[Griffin Newman]

I'm kind of excited about it too. But what are you. Your sight unseen picks for next year. Frontrunner, Best picture.

[Allison Wilmore]

I'm not gonna say the Odyssey because that's such a boring answer. But like, obviously the Odyssey is poised to be an enormous thing. Let's go with. Let's go with Disclosure Day. Spielberg. What if Spielberg brings it back around to doing a classic four quadrant, you know, alien pop culture hit that also

[Richard Lawson]

people think is very good and like says something about how we live or something.

[Allison Wilmore]

How we live today.

[Richard Lawson]

I am not gonna make a best picture prediction, but I am gonna say that little cruise is going to be back on the Oscar house.

[Allison Wilmore]

Biggest question of the year.

[David Sims]

The movie I have circled as the most kind of like, what's going on?

[Richard Lawson]

It's in your. It's, you know, it's very high profile. Cruz has been sort of the Maverick thing. Top Gun brought him back into that sort of fold a bit. So.

[Allison Wilmore]

And it's also like this is the start of the next stage in his career. He is clearly like, I cannot keep holding on to planes forever. And like breaking my ankle.

[Richard Lawson]

David Ellison refuses to shoot me into space.

[Allison Wilmore]

So despite my efforts. Yeah. So yeah. I mean, yeah. Huge question mark. So curious about that.

[David Sims]

Yeah. You know, I have no sense of this year's sort of festival movies right. At all.

[Allison Wilmore]

Early.

[David Sims]

Kind of too early. We just got the news that Aslan's film won't be at Cannes this year, which suggests it will not be coming out this year because he loves.

[Richard Lawson]

They're announcing the Cannes lineup in like Early April.

[David Sims]

Yeah.

[Allison Wilmore]

Also, I mean, like, what? Jordan Peele's new movie got bounced from the 2026.

[David Sims]

Jordan Peele's new movie is now just kind of a question.

[Richard Lawson]

Oh, wait, what are we talking about? About the bride.

[Allison Wilmore]

Sure.

[Richard Lawson]

Best picture, Best everything. Best bride.

[David Sims]

I, I, I don't think the bride will win best picture. I do think she will host next year's Oscar.

[Griffin Newman]

Maggie Gyllenhaal or the Bride.

[David Sims]

The bride herself.

[Richard Lawson]

Every winner has to dance to putting on the Ritz. It takes so long. It's such a long show. Oh, that movie. Let's do a bonus episode about that movie.

[Allison Wilmore]

I would love to.

[Richard Lawson]

I sat close to David during that movie and you've never heard a louder sigh.

[David Sims]

I was sighing. Boy, was I sighing.

[Richard Lawson]

Minute one, I'm shifting in his seat. I fell asleep at one point. You know, it was just a great, great day at the movie cinema.

[David Sims]

Same place I saw one battle after

[Richard Lawson]

10am on a Monday.

[David Sims]

Not a good time for the AMC.

[Allison Wilmore]

It's always a good time for the bride.

[Richard Lawson]

All right, Well, I won't tell listeners what movie to watch next week because we're just watch the Oscars on Sunday night.

[Allison Wilmore]

Just watch the Oscars.

[Richard Lawson]

We're going to be talking about another special guest. Thank you for sticking with us this long through all 10 best picture. No nominees. Yeah. We'll see you back here next week. Thank you, David, for joining us.

[Allison Wilmore]

Thank you.

[David Sims]

I loved every minute.

[Allison Wilmore]

Critical Darlings is a blank check Production in association with Vulture hosted by Alison Wilmore and Richard Lawson produced by Benjamin Frisch executive produced by Griffin Newman and Neil Jane Analytics Video production and distribution by Ann Victoria Clark, Wolfgang Ruth and Jennifer Jean.