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Suchita Vadlamani
Typically, whenever there's uncertainty, people start to hunker down. I need to plan ahead, and planning ahead is usually a cutting expense. You know, they're certainly not going to be in expansionary mode. The other factor is that Wall street is also looking for interest rates to go down or at least stay stable, if not go down. The market is doing incredibly well right now, so there is hope that the Trump administration is going to continue to help bolster the economy. And so long as that happens, I don't know that there's going to be a strong case to be cutting budget.
Sarah Hofstetter
Just welcome to today's episode of Brave Commerce.
Rachel Tippograph
I'm Rachel Tippograph, the founder and CEO of Mi'kmaq.
Sarah Hofstetter
I'm Sarah Hofstetter, president of Profitero, and.
Rachel Tippograph
This is a show that talks about what's relevant in E commerce for the world's biggest brands. Sarah, have you taken your money out of the stock market?
Sarah Hofstetter
Who said it was in the stock market to begin with? Have you?
Rachel Tippograph
Oh, please tell me that it's not under your mattress.
Sarah Hofstetter
The pickleball fiends would have found it by now, that's for sure. What about you, my dear?
Rachel Tippograph
No, the market's on fire. My whole investing principle is I just try to beat the S and P every year. That's my strategy. It's been my strategy since I was 13. I believe in something that my father taught me when I was 13 and he told me that If I followed that strategy every seven years, your money could double. That seemed like a good play. And history goes to show over time. That's true.
Sarah Hofstetter
What's your thought on the economy? As we're basically sitting at the bridge end of the year, we're in lame duck phase. Where's your head at?
Rachel Tippograph
I'm optimistic about the economy. I think interest rates are coming down. We know this. America likes to spend. They don't care about savings.
Sarah Hofstetter
We just looked at some of the early views from Black Friday and Cyber Monday. The numbers are up. So if this continues to happen, I don't know if this is a run on trying to stock up on stuff before the tariffs come or a mechanism that's going to just demonstrate the resilience of the American spirit and our absolute love of shopping, but should be an interesting few months to watch. Would be good for us to have a little bit of a crystal ball, though.
Rachel Tippograph
It would, but, you know, predictions are like the weather. You pretty much never get it right, so. And no one holds you to it.
Sarah Hofstetter
Well, we'll have to have second best. And in that case, we have turned to our dear friend Sutrita from Forester, the preeminent expert in retail. And I think she's got a few nuggets for all of us and some suggestions on what to buy.
Rachel Tippograph
Well, let's bring Suchita onto the show three times on Brave Commerce, but it's just because she is that insightful.
Sarah Hofstetter
Are you three.
Suchita Vadlamani
Peter, you. That's what you guys said. I thought it was two, but I'll take it. Three. I'm so honored. So honored.
Sarah Hofstetter
We're in the lame duck phase between Black Friday and Christmas, so obviously we've got a lot to unpack here. Thank you so much for joining us.
Suchita Vadlamani
Oh, thank you so much for having me. Always so fun to talk to you guys.
Sarah Hofstetter
Let's get into the nitty gritty. So the last time we published an episode with you was last August. So almost a year and a half in which you express an overall positive economic outlook on consumer spending in 2H23, which you said could carry into 24 despite signs of inflation and future interest rate hikes. Power of hindsight. What happened?
Suchita Vadlamani
Well, I think that the big theme has been this concept of the vibe session, which is that people definitely aren't feeling great. And that's what they said was the reason that they voted the way that they voted and to kick out the Democratic incumbent. But the truth is, is that people still are shopping and they're shopping at A higher rate than they've ever shopped before. They're shopping at more or less at the rate of inflation at this point. In some categories, it may be a little bit less, like in food. So you do see sectors like grocery, essentially, when you adjust for inflation, it's. It's a little bit below where it was in the past. But grocery grew so much through the pandemic that, you know, I'm not shedding any tears for. For those large grocers, I would say that the economy is still doing really well. When we look at all of the macro factors like GDP growth, wage growth, unemployment, all of those numbers are really positive and why people are feeling down. It's. We won't get into all of the specifics. I mean, you can dig into partisan data and this and that, but the truth is, is that the macro numbers are fairly strong. And it seems that especially if interest rates continue to go down, it should carry well through 2025.
Rachel Tippograph
When we look at some of the earnings of folks that we get on the show, which happen to be mass consumer product companies, a lot of the headlines in those earnings are that volume sales are down. So you feel that they're not down that much.
Suchita Vadlamani
That's an interesting observation, Rachel, because that's a story that we have been hearing for some time. You hear these large CPGs that say that their numbers are doing really well. Their overall, their revenue, their top line is strong, their profitability is strong. Obviously, that was because they were raising the prices of their goods to shoppers. And all along they knew that this was going to happen. The other shoe was going to drop, where at some point you've raised prices enough that the consumer is either switching to private label or they're substituting to other goods. And then you're going to have to go back and figure out how to reacquire those customers. But they weren't thinking about that through much of 22 and 23. They were just happy to take the higher margins and have some people on the marketing team, you know, just kind of wring their hands wondering, well, you know, this could be, you know, we could be setting ourselves up for a problem in the future.
Rachel Tippograph
And that's.
Suchita Vadlamani
I think, essentially what we're seeing now is that, yes, it is going to be hard to reacquire those customers because you've now got them used to tasting private label and trying private label and, you know, kind of. Or trying some of these newer niche brands that have, you know, specialty Mac and cheese flavors or whatever. And, yeah, you are going to have to figure out what you're going to do because you took advantage of the fact that people had stimulus checks and were flush with cash after the pandemic, and you took advantage of it, but you weren't thinking long term enough to figure out how to retain them.
Sarah Hofstetter
Mm.
Rachel Tippograph
So your read is consumers are shopping at very similar rates. They're just not choosing. You insert big brand, manufacturer name.
Suchita Vadlamani
And that's across the retail spectrum. I mean, I've been saying retail is probably the most competitive sector in the business world and there are always going to be winners and losers, and especially when there are low barriers to entry, when, you know, kind of if there is any economic pullback, if there's a maturing of the consumer segment, which essentially we're headed Toward now in 24, we had that great period of growth and then it's sort of, you know, kind of where we're capping out. It's going to be tough to reacquire those, those customers across the board. Like I said, it's not just a grocery issue. It's an apparel and sporting goods and toys. And every consumer category that's out there is facing these same challenges.
Rachel Tippograph
Well, you talked about, like tasting private label, which we've spoken about on the show. I think that a lot of our brand friends are seeing similar patterns in consumer data where either they're totally fine trading down or the consumer has decided this part of my world is valuable to me and I'll spend an irrational amount of money on it. So it could be skincare, for example.
Suchita Vadlamani
Right.
Rachel Tippograph
What we found though is that brands that are in the middle that either haven't figured out what their value play is in the low end of the spectrum or haven't figured out their value play on the high end of the spectrum, they're just like stuck like these center of store brands. Curious if, like you're looking at this segment, what you think is going to happen to center of store brands? Like, how does the story play out?
Suchita Vadlamani
Well, I think we've seen a lot of it playing out over the last few decades. You have really just a few options. Some of these larger conglomerates will acquire some of these challenger brands where they create their version of the challenger brands, or they create diffusion lines which take the brand equity of the hero brands and create some challenger flavor or, you know, some variant of it. But that's fundamentally the issue in all of retail, which is that you have the Walmartization at the low end, where it is about value and creating an offering which is acceptable and often better than acceptable. It's often relatively decent quality for a really inexpensive price. And that's what these middle brands are competing with is that better, cheaper version of whatever it is that you're offering. And then at the super high end, it is the premium experience that is everything from luxury dining to shopping in a fancy direct to consumer brand, manufacturer, store. It's all of those. And the equation of value in the middle just is not as compelling. That's ultimately what happens is that you have the flight away from the middle and you're either buying premium products or you're buying less expensive substitutes.
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Suchita Vadlamani
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Sarah Hofstetter
Well, let's talk about how the role that distribution, assortment, ubiquity kind of come into play as it relates to that. One of the best things that these big manufacturers have is the fact that they've got the points of distribution, they've got the assortment. They might have some hero SKUs that are just so rock and that they can, you know, get other things in There, where does that play in the retailer consideration when they're saying, you know what, like, let's take beverages, you want to talk center, store, let's think about beverages, right? Like there have been more beverages brought. Like you thought it was a Coke. Pepsi World, obviously the past five years have told us it is definitively not. But the number two, you know, bestselling soda right now is Dr. Pepper. And the tail is really long, but it's not as skinny as it used to be. But these are two giants that have tremendous distribution, lots of flavor extensions, you know, kind of knowing the playbook, how are our listeners, many of whom are large manufacturers, to think about the role that assortment, distribution and ubiquity play in their ability to get back in there?
Suchita Vadlamani
Well, I mean, this is where the last 20 years of the Internet has disrupted this idea of ubiquity and distribution. Because you have these players, whether it's Amazon or Instacart, completely changing kind of what's available. You have endless aisle capabilities, your ability as a hero brand. What does that even mean these days when you know, kind of it's whoever's willing to bid to be on the top page of soda or toothpaste or toilet paper or whatever the case may be, there's that there's an increasingly for packaged goods, these E commerce players are disproportionately stronger than it is for perishables. So you may. You're absolutely right. The ubiquity and distribution issue is probably still very, very important when you're talking about the perimeter. So it's going to impact like Tyson or Driscoll or some of these other players where they're not going to be as strong online. But for these online categories, they're duking it out with these challenger brands even worse than ever before. So there's that issue. And then you also. And by the way, to be a challenger brand is easier than ever, right? You not only are able to create small batches for less, you can get Amazon to distribute it, you can use Instagram to market it. It's much easier to get your name out. Even without, you know, kind of the major distribution. There's that challenge that the hero brands have to deal with. And then as far as like distribution is concerned, you have the private labels that are also trying to fight on the shelf for the space. There's still limited space. And dollar for dollar, unless you're going to give away your margin, you know, these merchants are going to be inclined to the private label offering, which is essentially what A lot of these Challenger grocery stores, whether it is a Lidl or Trader Joe's, like, they're heavily weighted in private label, and it's really hard for the bigger brands to offer that competitive margin. Not to mention that private label has gotten incredibly attractive, like their packaging for, you know, what you see at Lidl or Trader Joe's or even Kroger. Definitely Costco is at parity, if not better than any of the major brand offerings.
Rachel Tippograph
People wear Kirkland like it's streetwear.
Suchita Vadlamani
Exactly. That's what they're up against. Everyone talks about, oh, Amazon's taking our data, but it's like you've been giving Costco your data for four decades.
Rachel Tippograph
This is the only reason why I won't do 23 in May, because the only part of me that's not on the Internet is my DNA.
Suchita Vadlamani
As far as you know.
Rachel Tippograph
You're right. True story. Okay, so we're in this vibe session, period. One thing that we do know now, that we didn't know 16 months ago when we spoke to you last, is that Trump will be the next US President for a second term come January. How do you think the Trump administration is going to impact the consumer economy next year?
Suchita Vadlamani
Well, the big thing is tariffs. Questions around are there going to be tariffs on our consumer goods? Which goods, which companies? There are already tariffs on a lot of products like solar panels and whatnot. There are statements that have been said that it's going to be on all Chinese goods at a certain level. And then there's pushback saying that, oh, no, no, no, no, it's not gonna be on kind of every good. It's gonna depend on whoever's got his ear, you know, so it's hard to tell. What we do know is that since 2016, there has been a lot of diversification and movement to, you know, kind of expand the supply chain anyway. So between that, the first Trump presidency and the pandemic, we have had more of an understanding of supply chain shocks and how to insulate yourself from that through diversifying supply chains or diversifying suppliers. You know, kind of thinking differently about where products are in your, you know, in your warehousing. So I think that manufacturers and brands and retailers are a little bit smarter. Things are completely, I think, unclear about what's going to happen with Mexico, because my initial reaction would be we'll just, you know, near source more. We'll, you know, kind of we'll have more North American production. But it sounds like there is talk of tariffs on Mexican goods, too, but it's unclear. Is that just an immigration argument? Is that playing chicken until, you know, kind of that situation is resolved? Because theoretically, you know, kind of more manufacturing in Mexico would resolve a lot of issues. It's already a big trading partner. The cost of labor seemingly is at parity with China these days. If you're closer, you don't have, you know, that lag of, you know, six to 12 months where, you know, that's how long it takes for goods to get over versus if products were were more closely situated. I think there's a lot where we don't know the answers unless a company is heavily reliant on Chinese manufacturing, which at this point, I think a lot of companies have diversified out of China. I mean, even the Chinese economy is not as dependent on the US as it maybe was 20 years ago. It may not be as catastrophic as people may be worried about. It's TBD like this kind of these decisions don't happen overnight. Everyone is scared of executive orders that are going to be issued and it'll happen tomorrow. But I'm not entirely convinced because these things take time. I don't think even Trump wants to intentionally crater the US Economy. So I think we do have that in our favor.
Rachel Tippograph
So how do you think it's going to play out, though? And with Wall Street? Right. Because Wall street is going to be in this, like, wait and see moment with these mass consumer product companies on how tariffs are going to impact them. And, and as you know, internally, what happens at these organizations is they get so skittish on how Wall Street's going to react that they start slashing budget. And then the first place that they slash budget is marketing. And going back to what we just spoke about 10 minutes ago, they got to bring new consumers into the funnel. Right. Because they weren't able to retain those pandemic shoppers. So I just see like a vicious cycle that's about to start.
Suchita Vadlamani
That's a fair argument that we don't know what's going to happen. So let's just cut marketing because that's the easiest thing to cut. The poor marketers, they're always the first to not know what hit them. The good thing about marketing is that it's easy to cut, but it's also easy to add back. And it is the lever that everybody knows is the fastest way that you can impact sales. Yes, there may be an initial reaction, maybe in Q1, but by Q2, if sales are doing terribly, then you're going to have to find a way to fund more promotions and increase distribution or get your name out there in some bigger, more prominent way. That's a fair point, is that typically whenever there's uncertainty, people start to hunker down. I need to plan ahead. And planning ahead is usually cutting expenses. You know, they're certainly not going to be an expansionary mode. At the same time, the other factor is that Wall street is also looking for interest rates to go down or at least stay stable, if not go down. The market is doing incredibly well right now. So there is hope that the Trump administration is going to continue to help bolster the economy. And so long as that happens, I don't know that there's going to be a strong case to be cutting budget just yet.
Sarah Hofstetter
Before we go to our final question, what do you think we should buy before the inauguration?
Suchita Vadlamani
Oh, good question. You mean, you know, to prepare ourselves or before tariffs come?
Sarah Hofstetter
All of the above.
Suchita Vadlamani
I would definitely be looking into electronics. It's an odd category that. Well, first of all, you like your cycle probably like the last time you refurbished was probably during the pandemic anyway. So it's probably time, right? And everything is still really cheap. Like one of the categories that has experienced more deflation than just about everything else has been in electronics, like televisions, phones, PCs. Get your electronics, get them now before, you know, kind of some new cycle starts and they raise prices again.
Rachel Tippograph
You sound like my wife. She wants another tv.
Suchita Vadlamani
Well, that actually is something that is, I think, still largely manufactured in China. And if we do have tariffs, that could be a problem. So you may want to get in under the wire on those.
Rachel Tippograph
I just may. Well, you're a three time over brave commercer. So we're not going to ask you the same famous last question. We're going to put a twist on it.
Suchita Vadlamani
Go for it.
Rachel Tippograph
What's the bravest thing you've seen a brand do this year?
Suchita Vadlamani
I always, especially since we're coming out of Black Friday, I always think it's interesting when the outdoor brands are like, screw it, we're not going to play with Black Friday. We're not going to encourage it. Go outside and do something more productive with your time. So I would say REI is in that bucket. I don't know what Patagonia is doing these days, but you know, they're always a leader in these things. So I definitely admire them. I know that during the election they were definitely encouraging people to get out and vote and to vote, knowing that, you know, kind of things like climate change and the environment and our sustainable future are on the line. So definitely that one of my favorite little brands is Penzi Spices. And they are just so shamelessly politically active and, you know, kind of unapologetically liberal. So I give them a lot of. A lot of props for being that brave, you know, kind of just not caring who they may lose along the way. So those are some of the ones that I think are some of the more interesting ones.
Rachel Tippograph
I've seen great examples, and I'm going to have to go check out that spice company.
Suchita Vadlamani
Yes, they're delicious, too. Good stuff.
Rachel Tippograph
We're going to hold you to your predictions for 2025, which is you think that the consumer economy is going to be thriving and you don't think tariffs are going to whack us in the face immediately in January, that these things are going to take time?
Suchita Vadlamani
I think they're going to take time. You know, given that Elon has his ear, my hunch is that it's going to be more tariffs related to batteries, kind of electric car batteries, electric cars. It's one of the reasons that the Chinese electric car manufacturers still haven't come to the United States and probably aren't for any time in the near future, you know, even though they have great, inexpensive electric cars. So I think it's going to be in some of those categories versus some of the ones that the American companies like. I mean, there's, I think, a really good reason that Tim Cook made a call to Donald Trump after the election because, you know, I'm sure that Apple wants its special dispensations and it will probably get them.
Rachel Tippograph
Yeah. You saw it all with Zuck and Bezos. They all. They all congratulated him, right? Yes. Yep. Relationships make the world go round. Well, we're so appreciative for your time. We love having you on to do hindsight and predictions and. Until next year.
Suchita Vadlamani
Until next year. So wonderful to talk to you, Rachel and Sarah.
Sarah Hofstetter
Thanks.
Suchita Vadlamani
Thank you.
Rachel Tippograph
If you like what you heard and you love to play the hindsight game, we highly suggest that you go check out Sutrita's episodes from 2023 and 2022 to see how much she got right and how much she got wrong in her predictions on the consumer economy. If you like what you heard, tell a friend. Write a review. Thanks for listening.
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Hi, I'm Jackie Cooper, global Chief Brand Officer at Edelman and the host of Touch of Truth, a new podcast launching on the Adweek Podcast Network. My dad gave me this incredibly smart piece of advice. Meet everyone once. As a result, I've met some of the most fascinating and inspiring people on the planet. Now on Touch of Truth, we're coming center stage and sharing the mic to experience stories of truth, insights and visions for the future that will challenge your way of thinking. Touch of Truth is available wherever you listen to podcast. New episodes come out every Tuesday. I do hope to see you there.
BRAVE COMMERCE Podcast Summary
Episode Title: Sucharita Kodali on Retail Resilience: Navigating Consumer Trends, Tariffs, and the Future of Commerce
Release Date: December 10, 2024
Hosts: Rachel Tipograph (Founder & CEO of MikMak) and Sarah Hofstetter (President of Profitero)
Guest: Suchita Vadlamani (Retail Expert from Forrester)
In this engaging episode of BRAVE COMMERCE, hosts Rachel Tipograph and Sarah Hofstetter welcome Suchita Vadlamani, a renowned retail expert from Forrester, to discuss the current landscape of eCommerce, consumer behavior, and the impending impacts of tariffs under the Trump administration. The conversation delves deep into retail resilience, examining how major brands can navigate evolving consumer trends and economic uncertainties.
Timestamp: [01:15]
Suchita begins by addressing the general economic uncertainty and its effects on consumer behavior. She observes that typically, in times of uncertainty, companies tend to "hunker down" by cutting expenses and halting expansion plans. However, current macroeconomic indicators such as GDP growth, wage growth, and low unemployment rates remain positive, fostering an optimistic outlook.
Timestamp: [03:11]
Sarah Hofstetter introduces recent positive trends observed during Black Friday and Cyber Monday, noting increased sales numbers. Suchita interprets this as a demonstration of the "resilience of the American spirit and our absolute love of shopping," questioning whether it's a preemptive stock-up before tariffs or genuine consumer enthusiasm.
Timestamp: [17:47]
A significant portion of the discussion centers on the potential impact of tariffs under the Trump administration. Suchita elaborates on the uncertainty surrounding which goods might be subjected to tariffs and highlights the diversification of supply chains that many companies have undertaken since 2016. This diversification serves as a buffer against potential supply chain disruptions.
She also touches on the possibility of tariffs affecting Mexican goods, considering the close economic ties and the feasibility of nearshoring manufacturing processes. However, she emphasizes the uncertainty and the time it takes for such policies to be implemented.
Timestamp: [06:23]
Rachel brings up the trend of mass consumer product companies reporting strong revenues despite declining volume sales, attributing this to price hikes. Suchita agrees, explaining that while these companies benefited from higher margins during the pandemic, they now face challenges in retaining customers who have grown accustomed to private labels or niche brands.
This shift has led to increased competition as consumers either opt for less expensive alternatives or invest heavily in categories they deem valuable, such as skincare.
Timestamp: [14:30]
The conversation transitions to the critical roles of distribution, assortment, and ubiquity in retail. Suchita discusses how the rise of eCommerce giants like Amazon and Instacart has disrupted traditional distribution models, making it harder for hero brands to maintain their market presence. Additionally, the ease with which challenger brands can enter the market—thanks to platforms like Amazon and social media—intensifies competition.
She also highlights the dominance of private labels in stores like Lidl, Trader Joe's, and Costco, which offer competitive pricing and quality, posing significant threats to established brands.
Timestamp: [22:43]
When asked about what brands should purchase before potential tariff implementations, Suchita advises focusing on electronics. She notes that electronics have experienced deflation over the past year, making it an opportune time to buy before any price hikes occur due to tariffs.
Timestamp: [23:45]
Rachel shifts the conversation to commendable actions taken by brands. Suchita praises outdoor brands like REI and Patagonia for eschewing Black Friday and encouraging consumers to engage in productive activities instead. She also lauds Penzi Spices for their unapologetically liberal stance and political activism.
Timestamp: [25:08]
As the episode wraps up, Suchita shares her predictions for 2025. She anticipates that tariffs will primarily target specific categories like electric car batteries rather than wholesale consumer goods. Additionally, she expects major brands to maintain strong relationships with the Trump administration to secure favorable conditions.
Rachel and Sarah express their appreciation for Suchita's insights, agreeing to monitor her predictions and looking forward to future discussions.
This episode of BRAVE COMMERCE offers a comprehensive analysis of the current and future challenges in the eCommerce landscape. Suchita Vadlamani provides valuable insights into how economic indicators, consumer behavior shifts, and potential tariff implementations under the Trump administration could shape the retail sector. Brands are encouraged to adapt by diversifying supply chains, enhancing distribution strategies, and embracing bold, value-driven actions to stay competitive in an increasingly complex market.
Notable Quotes Recap:
For more insights and detailed discussions, tune into BRAVE COMMERCE on Acast.