Broadway Breakdown – 2023 Tony Predictions (Part 4): FINAL Predictions (w/ The Theatre Lovers) Host: Matt Koplik
Guests: Will & Rachel Anderson (aka The Theatre Lovers)
Date: April 28, 2023

Overview

In this finale to the Tony Awards predictions series, host Matt Koplik and returning guests, Will and Rachel Anderson (The Theatre Lovers), dive deep into their final picks and personal favorites for Broadway's 2023 Tony Award nominations. With characteristic irreverence, camp, and passionate geekery, they debate who will get nominated, who should be recognized, and the wild cards they're rooting for. The episode is heavy on opinion, Broadway lore, and playful banter—perfect for hardcore theater fans tracking the season’s competitive races.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Season Recap & Contextual Notes

[02:02] – The trio share what they've seen since the last episode, including A Doll’s House, Broadway Barbara (“A joke, a punchline every 15 seconds… expertly done." – Will, [02:45]), Shucked, New York, New York, Thanksgiving Play, Good Night, Oscar, Prima Facie, and Life of Pi.
[05:51] – Matt summarizes the Tony nomination landscape after a busy month of Drama Desk, Outer Critics Circle, and Drama League announcements, reminding listeners that these nominations don’t always predict Tony outcomes (“…they can help with momentum, but totally different nominating bodies… sometimes shows do really well at Outer Critics Circle and then shit the bed at the Tonys. Young Frankenstein, Anastasia, American Psycho.”).

2. Category-by-Category Predictions

Orchestrations

[08:23-12:15]

• Agreement on front-runners: Some Like It Hot, Kimberly Akimbo, New York, New York, Shucked, and & Juliet.
• Notable Advocacy: Jonathan Tunick for Sweeney Todd—for the overdue recognition ("He should have won in 1979. He did win in 1997. Yeah, yeah. It's all interconnected…” – Matt, [09:48]).
• Fun Fact: Original Sweeney orchestrations were never eligible for a Tony.

Score

[12:25-16:29]

• Consensus: Kimberly Akimbo, Some Like It Hot, Shucked, likely New York, New York (if eligible), or Life of Pi/KPOP as the longshot.
• Matt pushes back on the idea “Kimberly has no bops” (“First of all, it has bops. But then everybody’s like, I don’t know, I feel like the score is unnecessary…” – Matt, [13:02]).
• Runners-up: Play scores (e.g., Prima Facie, Leopoldstadt) may sneak in, as could Bad Cinderella.

Book of a Musical

[16:29-19:33]

• Top picks: Kimberly Akimbo (David Lindsay–Abaire), Some Like It Hot, Shucked, & Juliet.
• Wildcard: Almost Famous, New York, New York (dubious prospects: “The one thing everyone’s in agreement on is that the book is bad, bad, bad…” – Matt, [18:54]).
• Off-Broadway Shoulda-Been: Titanique is praised for its writing.

Choreography

[21:55-28:20]

• Clear favorites: New York, New York (Stroman), Some Like It Hot (Casey Nicholaw), & Juliet (Jennifer Weber), KPOP, with Beautiful Noise and Sweeney Todd as possible nominations due to choreographer popularity.
• Lively banter about the merits and excesses of modern Broadway choreography ("Since Mormon, I feel like [Casey Nicholaw’s] shows have gotten more dancey, but less specific…” – Matt, [24:42]).
• Life of Pi floated as a movement-based dark horse.

Costume Design (Musical & Play)

[28:27-34:29]

• Musicals: Some Like It Hot, Camelot, Sweeney Todd, New York, New York, & Juliet (w/ Bad Cinderella as potential spoiler).
• Plays: Piano Lesson, Leopoldstadt, Peter Pan Goes Wrong, Christmas Carol, Ain’t No Mo’. Special mention to Fat Ham for integrating drag and contemporary costumes.

Lighting Design (Musical & Play)

[37:43-47:17]

• Musicals: New York, New York, Sweeney Todd, Shucked, & Juliet, with a nod to KPOP for its concert vibe.
• Plays: Life of Pi, Fat Ham, Christmas Carol, Piano Lesson, noting an affinity for shows with “ghostly” lighting (Ohio State Murders, Doll’s House, and Leopoldstadt also discussed).

Featured Acting Categories

• Featured Actress in a Musical ([49:59-53:00]): Locks for Bonnie Milligan (Kimberly Akimbo), Ali Mozzie (Kimberly Akimbo), Betsy Wolfe (& Juliet), Ruthie Ann Miles (Sweeney Todd), and range of others with Robin Herter flagged as a long-shot.
• Featured Actor in a Musical ([53:21-58:41]): Alex Newell (Shucked), Jordan Donica (Camelot), Justin Cooley and Steven Boyer (Kimberly Akimbo), Alex Joseph Grayson (Parade), with Gaten Matarazzo (Sweeney Todd) and Kevin Del Aguila (Some Like It Hot) close contenders.
• Featured Actress in a Play ([71:14-74:07]): Crystal Lucas Perry (Ain't No Mo’), Sharon D. Clark (Death of a Salesman), Faye Castellow (Leopoldstadt), Darcy Carden (Thanksgiving Play), plus wildcards including Nikki Crawford (Fat Ham) and Nancy Zamit (Peter Pan Goes Wrong).
• Featured Actor in a Play ([74:07-77:23]): Brandon Uranowitz (Leopoldstadt), Dave Krumholtz (Leopoldstadt), Chris Sullivan (Thanksgiving Play), Billy Eugene Jones (Fat Ham), Arian Moayed (A Doll’s House).

Leading Acting Categories

• Actress in a Musical ([58:47-64:11]):

  • Locks: Victoria Clark (Kimberly Akimbo), Annaleigh Ashford (Sweeney Todd), Micaela Diamond (Parade), Phillipa Soo (Camelot), Sara Bareilles (Into the Woods).
  • Lorna Courtney (& Juliet) considered but not favored.

• Actor in a Musical ([77:23-79:23]):

  • Predicted: J. Harrison Ghee (Some Like It Hot), Ben Platt (Parade), Josh Groban (Sweeney Todd), Christian Borle (Some Like It Hot) or Colton Ryan (New York, New York), Andrew Burnap (Camelot).
  • No clear favorite: “There’s no lock in this category.” – Matt, [79:13].

• Actress in a Play ([65:11-65:54]):

  • Jodie Comer (Prima Facie), Jessica Chastain (A Doll’s House), Audra McDonald (Ohio State Murders), Laura Linney (Summer 1976).

• Actor in a Play ([66:03-70:44]):

  • Sean Hayes (Good Night, Oscar), Marcel Spears (Fat Ham), Wendell Pierce (Death of a Salesman), Hiran Abeysekera (Life of Pi), Corey Hawkins (Topdog/Underdog), Oscar Isaac (Sign in Sidney Brustein’s Window) all serious contenders—truly “stacked.”

Direction & Design

• Director of a Musical ([79:24-82:48]):
  • Michael Arden (Parade), Jessica Stone (Kimberly Akimbo), Casey Nicholaw (Some Like It Hot), Thomas Kail (Sweeney Todd), with toss-ups among Brian Jack O’Brien (Shucked), Susan Stroman (New York, New York), and Lear deBessonet (Into the Woods).
• Director of a Play ([82:49-83:29]):
  • Sam Gold (Leopoldstadt), Saheem Ali (Fat Ham), Justin Martin (Prima Facie), Jamie Lloyd (Doll’s House), with Topdog/Underdog and Life of Pi as alternates.

Scenic & Sound Design

• Scenic Design Musical: New York, New York, Sweeney Todd, Some Like It Hot, Camelot, Shucked, potential surprise from & Juliet ([88:04]).
• Scenic Design Play: Leopoldstadt, Life of Pi, Christmas Carol, Peter Pan Goes Wrong, Piano Lesson ([87:14-87:48]).
• Sound Design Musical: Kimberly Akimbo, New York, New York, & Juliet, Shucked, Parade, possible Some Like It Hot ([85:59-86:41]).
• Sound Design Play: A Doll’s House, Prima Facie, Christmas Carol, Peter Pan Goes Wrong, Fat Ham ([85:32]).

Best Musical & Best Play

• Best Musical ([94:28-95:25]): Kimberly Akimbo, Shucked, & Juliet, Some Like It Hot, New York, New York (despite “Beautiful Noise” prediction rumors).
• Best Play ([93:25-94:28]): Fat Ham, Leopoldstadt, Prima Facie, Cost of Living, Between Riverside and Crazy—runners-up could include Life of Pi and Good Night, Oscar.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Matt:
  “How is one to vote if you can’t totally hear [Sweeney Todd’s orchestrations]? But that’s where we’re going to get to sound design in a second.” [11:54]

• Rachel:
  “If you can get there next weekend, just go. Such a good time… a joke, a punchline, every 15 seconds, but it didn’t feel like too much. It was really, really expertly done.” – re: “Broadway Barbara” [02:34, 02:45]

• Will:
  “She’s sort of like if Elaine Stritch and Roger from American Dad had a baby. That’s Broadway Barbara… Jerry Herman meets Jerry Blank.” [03:14, 03:27]

• Matt (re: New York, New York’s book):
  “…it's too much. Too little, too unfocused, too everywhere all at once, and yet nothing at the same time… I’m not trying to trash the writing… but so much of New York, New York is just, like, fully expressing it is not a good libretto.” [18:57]

• On Fandom:
  “You come on this podcast every time as full blown allies and I am here for it... this is supposed to be my house, my podcast, and yet my guests come in and call me trash, and I let them stay. And that, Rachel, is feminism.” – Matt [07:41, 08:03]

• Meta-Tony Mythbusting:
  “…people say ‘oh, what’s best to tour that will win’…that’s a total myth that started with Avenue Q. That’s not really true.” – Matt [06:18]

• On Choreography:
  “I feel like [Casey Nicholaw’s] shows have gotten more dancey, but less specific and less structured. So it’s just a lot of dance all the time. And it frustrates me...” – Matt [24:42]

• Wild Card Wish:
  “If I could, I would put in Marla Mindelle for Titanique. That icon is delivering. She is serving. She is a finalist on every cylinder.” – Matt [59:42]

• On ‘Into the Woods’ Hype:
  “...I feel like personally, Juliet is the least interesting role in that show, which is not what you want for a show that has a title character that you've made... the least interesting.” – Matt [59:58]

• Banter About the Tony Process:
  “This is all just my universe, this is my Barbie world, and Barbie says that I’m going to include for my fifth nominee for best book, Titanique. Because that show—” [17:16]

Timestamps for Important Segments

• Introduction and Season Recap: [00:00]–[05:51]
• Award Category Deep Dives Start: [08:21]
• Orchestrations Predictions: [08:21]–[12:15]
• Score: [12:25]–[16:29]
• Book: [16:29]–[19:33]
• Choreography: [21:55]–[28:20]
• Costume Design: [28:27]–[34:29]
• Lighting Design: [37:43]–[47:17]
• Featured Acting Categories: [49:59]–[58:41]
• Lead Acting Categories: [58:47]–[64:11]
• Director Categories: [79:24]–[83:29]
• Scenic & Sound Design: [85:32]–[88:46]
• Best Play, Musical, Revivals: [89:22]–[95:57]
• Listener Questions/Outro: [97:38]–[99:00]

Tone, Takeaways, and Overall Vibe

Matt, Will, and Rachel’s conversation is passionate, unfiltered, and suffused with deep knowledge, inside jokes, and fierce affection for theater—peppered with playful shade and signature “foul-mouthed” asides. Their Tony predictions smartly distinguish between “what will” and “what should” happen, offering both fan fantasy and cold-eyed analysis. The episode is aimed at theater insiders and deep-dish fans, brimming with references, meta-predictions, and callbacks to previous seasons. For listeners tracking the Tony race, it’s a rich, rapid-fire, and highly opinionated summary of where things stand—and what could surprise us on Tony nomination day.

Notable: See episode [09:48], [13:02], [18:54], [24:42], [59:42] for key quotes and memorable rants.