Broadway Breakdown – "2023 Tony Predictions: Who’ll Win??" (with Inappropriate Patti/Jonathan Hoover)
Episode Date: June 8, 2023
Host: Matt Koplik
Guest: Jonathan Hoover (aka “Inappropriate Patti”)
Overview
This lively episode takes listeners deep into the heart of Tony Awards season as Matt Koplik and guest Jonathan Hoover (Inappropriate Patti) gather for their annual Tony predictions. Bursting with insider energy, industry anecdotes, and sharp, occasionally foul-mouthed wit, the duo debates who’ll take home Broadway’s biggest prizes, examines the year in theatre, and unpacks the quirks of the Tony voting process. Along the way, they offer hot takes, passionate advocacy for certain artists, and a healthy dose of theatrical shade—all while celebrating their first podcast together in person.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
1. The Tony Awards Context and Voter Mentality (04:45–06:10)
- Difference between Tonys and Oscars: Precursor awards influence the Oscars much more than the Tonys; most voters for Drama Desk/Outer Critics/Drama League aren’t Tony voters.
- Awards such as the Drama Desk can create momentum but aren’t determinative for Tony outcomes.
- Tony wins are less predictable—momentum and campaign friendliness matter, but so do quirks and personal likability.
- “[With the Oscars] momentum gets very clear … Not the case with the Tonys.” — Matt (05:19)
2. Standout Categories and Early Predictions
a. Featured Actress in a Musical – A “Gay Rights” Category (08:25–16:10)
- Universally regarded as a “bloodbath”—every nominee lauded, no easy favorite.
- Jonathan’s heart pick and prediction: Bonnie Milligan for Kimberly Akimbo:
- Celebrates Bonnie’s rags-to-riches path and show-stopping comic/brassy turn.
- “She is killing it in a show... one of the biggest shows of the season.” — Jonathan (09:40)
- Celebrates Bonnie’s rags-to-riches path and show-stopping comic/brassy turn.
- Both host and guest gush over Julia Lester’s wit in Into the Woods, Ruthie Ann Miles in Sweeney Todd, Natasha Yvette Williams in Some Like It Hot.
- Matt identifies potential upset: Betsy Wolfe from & Juliet, given that show's broader voter support and commercial punch.
- “I think if there’s any possibility [for an upset], it’s the wealth-spread for Betsy Wolfe.” — Matt (15:01)
b. Costume Design of a Play – Small but Mighty (17:15–21:05)
- Jonathan loves Fat Ham’s playful color and realism mix but ultimately predicts Ain’t No Mo’.
- Matt’s bet: Life of Pi for the elaborate puppets/costumes, but expresses frustration about puppet inclusion.
- “Those fucking puppets … They count as costumes? That’s shenanigans.” — Matt (19:27)
c. Featured Actress in a Play – The “Daddy Category” (21:36–27:01)
- Most competitive acting field per Matt; all nominees are “bangers.”
- Miriam Silverman (Sign in Sidney Brustein’s Window) identified as the likely winner for her scene-stealing, no-nonsense role.
- Strong performances also cited from Katie Sullivan (Cost of Living), Nikki Crawford (Fat Ham), Crystal Lucas Perry (Ain’t No Mo’).
- Matt: “It’s just so up in the air, and there’s not a single scenario where I would be upset with any of the winners.” (22:52)
3. Tony Awards Culture and What Makes Someone a Winner (12:06+, 28:05+)
- Personality, networking, and campaign “friendliness” play dramatic roles in outcomes:
- “It really helps … to just be a person people like.” — Matt (13:08)
- Stories about parties, pin giveaways, and “secret” Grammy parties for Into the Woods as low-key Tony campaigns.
- Bitter humor about overly long speeches (usually from straight men), actors’ self-importance, and the “chamber echo” of industry events.
- “If ever there has been a greater argument for writers, it’s watching actors at non-televised award ceremonies.” — Matt (35:45)
- Jessica Chastain praised repeatedly for her sincerity, class, and humility at events (33:02–35:12, 51:36–52:11).
4. Musical and Technical Prediction Deep Dives
a. Sound Design of a Musical (43:46–48:26)
- Jonathan rails against the “far away” sound of some recent musicals (esp. Sweeney Todd); prefers Shucked for clarity.
- Matt predicts Into the Woods will win, possibly New York, New York as upset.
- “I could hear every word [in Into the Woods].” — Matt (47:44)
- On Sweeney: “You hired a 26 piece orchestra—because I can’t hear it!” — Jonathan (44:59)
b. Best Actor in a Musical (53:46–61:59)
- Both advocate for J. Harrison Ghee (Some Like It Hot): a history-making, widely beloved performance.
- Ben Platt’s (Parade) “nepo baby” discourse discussed—but acknowledged as earning his place.
- Matt nervous about a surprise Josh Groban (Sweeney Todd) win, given Sweeney’s iconic status.
- “If you just don’t fuck it up ... you’re a contender ... just by the nature of not fucking it up.” — Jonathan (55:30)
c. Scenic & Costume Design of a Musical (63:19–66:20)
- Both predict New York, New York for scenic: “That is Broadway right there.”
- Costume Design: Some Like It Hot is predicted to win on sheer spectacle.
d. Choreography & Score/Book Debates (71:28–101:16)
- Some Like It Hot (Casey Nicholaw) and New York, New York (Susan Stroman) are leading choreography contenders.
- Matt: “Casey Nicholaw with choreography at the Tonys is like Susan Lucci at the Emmys.”
- Score/Book: Though Kimberly Akimbo is expected to win both, both Matt and Jonathan see Shucked as a compelling threat for book and, possibly, an upset for Best Musical:
- “If this doesn’t go to Shucked, this is rigged. That is one of the smartest books ...” — Jonathan (97:00)
- Kimberly Akimbo’s score discussed as “good but not instant-classic,” with Jonathan wanting more emotional heft and being open about disappointment seeing Vicki Clark’s understudy.
5. Play Categories: Best Play and Revivals (124:35–126:41)
- Leopoldstadt expected to win Best Play, with Fat Ham as the heartpick/possible spoiler.
- A Doll’s House is Matt’s prediction for Best Revival of a Play, with Topdog/Underdog also in the mix.
6. Best Actress/Musical (“Vicki Clark Will Win, and Deserves To”) (121:26–123:14)
- Kimberly Akimbo’s Victoria Clark is a near-lock, celebrated as “prestigious,” “carrying the show,” and “well-deserving.”
- Michaela Diamond (Parade) viewed as tomorrow’s legend, but not quite there yet.
7. The Big One: Best Musical (124:45–125:47)
- Matt: Still predicts Kimberly Akimbo, but sees Shucked as the possible upset over Some Like It Hot.
- Jonathan throws wholehearted support behind Shucked: “I want Shucked to win.”
- & Juliet mentioned as the dark horse, but unlikely given how few other wins or precursor momentum it has.
- Durability and touring viability factor into discussion of what should win.
Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
- “You gotta do you and like, be a shark … just do what you gotta do to get your name out.” — Matt (02:02)
- “There is merit to just being a person people like. Believe it or not, there aren’t that many in the theater community.” — Matt (13:04)
- “Any one of [the featured actress in a play nominees] could or should win … just so up in the air.” — Matt (22:52)
- “I want to be swimming in that music.” — Jonathan (46:27) [on Sweeney Todd’s orchestra]
- “Sometimes it feels good to be catty … it’s like having to make yourself vomit if you have food poisoning.” — Matt (38:59)
- “If you just don’t fuck it up … you’re a contender just by the nature of not fucking it up.” — Jonathan (55:30)
- “I will always vote for the person that didn’t come from money.” — Jonathan (56:58) [re: J. Harrison Ghee]
Timestamps for Major Segments
- 00:11 — Show intro; Matt’s energy & guest welcome
- 04:45–06:10 — How precursor awards actually relate to Tony wins
- 08:25–16:10 — Featured Actress/Musical breakdown
- 17:15–21:05 — Costume Design of a Play (and puppet shenanigans)
- 21:36–27:01 — Featured Actress in a Play "daddy" showdown
- 28:05–39:32 — Networking, likability, Tony-winning “intangibles,” and party stories
- 43:46–48:26 — Sound Design and music clarity debate (Sweeney Todd, Shucked, Into the Woods)
- 53:46–61:59 — Best Actor in a Musical: Jay Harrison Ghee, Ben Platt, Josh Groban odds
- 63:19–66:20 — Scenic/Costume Design discussion
- 71:28–101:16 — Choreography, Score, and Book: Some Like It Hot, Kimberly Akimbo, Shucked
- 124:45–127:27 — Best Play and Best Musical predictions (with reasons)
- 131:43–133:32 — Emotional review read, fan appreciation
In the Original Language & Tone
- Witty, candid, affectionate yet unfiltered—lots of in-jokes, playful profanity, and “debate club” energy.
- Willingness to be both harshly critical (“Sweeney’s sound design was incredibly muted”) and deeply complimentary (“Jessica Chastain stayed until the bitter end”).
- Frequent self-aware detours (“that’s another episode!”), audience asides, and inside-baseball references to Tony politics.
Conclusion
Matt and Jonathan provide not just a set of Tony predictions but a masterclass in Broadway’s social and aesthetic currents—who’s hot, who’s not, why it matters, and how political, social, and even personal dynamics filter into Tony night. Their candid, impassioned, and riotously funny breakdown will leave theatre lovers informed, entertained, and ready to root for their favorites—with a special eye on the underdogs.
Closing Diva: Vicki Clark
*The episode closes with a nod to Victoria Clark (“I will bend over for Vicki”) and her solo from Titanic, celebrating her likely Tony win for Kimberly Akimbo.
For more deep-dive Broadway talk and Tony reactions, follow Broadway Breakdown and Matt Koplik on Instagram, and Jonathan Hoover (@inappropriatepatti) for social shenanigans and live performances.