Broadway Breakdown: 2024 Tony Nominees — What We Predict vs. What We Want

Host: Matt Koplik
Guest: Dan Rubins (critic/writer, Outer Critics Circle nominator, host of The Present Stage podcast)
Date: April 28, 2024

Overview

In this episode, Tony season reaches fever pitch as Matt and Dan go deep on the soon-to-be-announced 2024 Tony Award nominations. Both theater obsessives and industry insiders, they break down every major category, offering not just their final predictions but also their personal choices if they had total control of the nominations. Expect fierce opinions, inside-baseball insights on the voting process, and plenty of passion about what the American theater gets right and wrong during awards season. Along the way, they analyze trends, highlight overlooked artists, and spotlight performances, all with Matt's signature irreverence and Dan's detailed, thoughtful industry knowledge.

Structure

• Tony Nominating Process
• Best Play Predictions
• Best Actress in a Musical
• Best Actor in a Musical
• Orchestrations & Design Categories
• Featured Acting (Play & Musical)
• Book, Score, and Choreography
• Direction, Revival, and Other Major Categories
• Memorable Moments & Quotes
• Closing Thoughts & Resources

Tony Nominating Process: Inside Baseball

Timestamp: 03:14

• The Tony nominating process is much less unified than people think. Each awards body (Tonys, Drama Desk, Outer Critics) has its own membership, priorities, and processes.
• Tony nominators include a wide spectrum from actors, designers, and directors to producers and journalists.
• "It's not the same as the Oscars... a show can get a lot of Drama Desk or Outer Critics Circle love and then come up short on Tony nomination day." — Matt (03:46)
• Critics are often public about their opinions throughout the season, whereas Tony nominators may come from more varied backgrounds and may have personal ties to productions.
• The committee for the Tony Awards typically consists of 50–75 people, but that shrinks if members have to recuse themselves, especially if they're connected to an eligible production.

Best Play

Timestamp: 06:46–15:17

Main Contenders

• Locks: Stereophonic, Jaja's African Hair Braiding
• Other major predictions: Mary Jane, Patriots, Prayer for the French Republic
• Mother Play positioned as the spoiler, potentially unseating Mary Jane or Patriots.

Personal Choices

• Matt loves both Jaja and Stereophonic — “As long as Jaja is in there with Stereophonic, I will be a very happy boy...” (08:10)
• Dan would swap in The Shark Is Broken for Prayer for the French Republic in his personal picks, admiring its intricate take on "director’s commentary on the making of Jaws".

Memorable Discussion

• Dan and Matt debate whether “heavy” subject matter (like Mary Jane) puts off voters, or whether empathy should still win out.

Best Actress in a Musical

Predictions:

• Strong consensus:
  • Kelli O’Hara (Days of Wine and Roses)
  • Marianne Plunkett (The Notebook)
  • Malia Joy Moon (Hell's Kitchen)
  • Gayle Rankin (Cabaret)
  • Shaina Taub (Suffs)

Personal Faves

• Both hosts agree on Kelli, Marianne, and Malia Joy Moon.
• Matt would add Arielle Jacobs (Here Lies Love) and Izzy McCalla (Water for Elephants).
• Dan wants to highlight Nichelle Lewis (The Wiz) for a standout “vocally and characterization-wise” Dorothy.

Analysis & Tone:

• Rankin’s Sally Bowles (Cabaret) might be a divisive nomination.
• “I thought Nichelle Lewis was phenomenal in The Wiz, particularly vocally. But I also thought the characterization was lovely.” — Dan (18:05)
• Discussion of Sally Bowles as a "snowball of contradictions" and the difficulty of making the role feel cohesive.

Best Actor in a Musical

Predictions:

• Locks: Brian d’Arcy James (Days of Wine and Roses), Jonathan Groff (Merrily We Roll Along), Eddie Redmayne (Cabaret)
• Brody Grant (The Outsiders) is a consensus likely nomination.
• Final slot is a toss-up between Ricky Ubeda (Illinois), Ali Louis Bourzgui (Tommy), and others (Justin Guarini, Dorian Harewood, etc.).

Wants:

• Matt: Dorian Harewood (The Notebook), Justin Guarini (Once Upon a One More Time)
• Dan: loves Chip Zien (Harmony) and found Casey Likes (Back to the Future) “much more impressive” on second viewing.

Notable Quote:

• Matt: “I hated [Once Upon a One More Time], but [Guarini] and Jennifer Simard were the two people I watched. I was like, you understand the assignment and you're doing it well.” (26:12–26:19)

Orchestrations & Design Categories

Orchestrations

• Both agree Illinois and Days of Wine and Roses are locks for nominations.
• Other strong contenders: Suffs, The Notebook, Hell’s Kitchen.
• Dan’s “rant” about the challenge of evaluating orchestrations: “Orchestration is always going to be a mix of score and sound design for most folks who don't have intimate knowledge…” (32:03)
• Notable snubs: Dan highlights the orchestrations for Harmony and the legacy of Jonathan Tunick (Merrily), with debate over what counts as a “new” orchestration.
• Matt: “The Lachiusa Wild Party was not nominated for orchestrations. And those orchestrations are fucking fire.” (35:14)

Design, Play

• Scenic: Patriots, Appropriate, Stereophonic, with discussion of Gray House as under-discussed.
• Costume: Modern dramas face “no corsets=no nominations” bias; hope for Jaja’s African Hair Braiding to break through.
• Lighting: Appropriate, Stereophonic, Gray House lauded for subtlety.
• Sound: “Stereophonic was written for best sound design of a play.” (46:34)

Featured Acting — Play & Musical

Featured Actor/Actress in a Play

• Strong category for Stereophonic & Appropriate, but concern for vote-splitting.
• Matt: “There are five men in Stereophonic who all deserve to be recognized.”
• Dan: “My wants would be William Jackson Harper (Uncle Vanya), Billy Eugene Jones (Pearly Victorious), Corey Stoll (Appropriate)...” (61:53)
• Both lament how hard it is for standout “glue” ensemble members to get recognized.

Featured Actress in a Play

• “This is perhaps my favorite category this season because there are so many, many performances that are just phenomenal and, like, there are going to be five women who will not be recognized on the 30th...” (71:59)
• Kara Young (Pearly Victorious) and Sarah Pidgeon (Stereophonic) are consensus locks.
• Both shout out underdog performances in Jaja’s African Hair Braiding (Britney Adebumola, Nana Mensah).

Featured Actress in a Musical

• Matt: Locks are Lindsay Mendez, Bebe Neuwirth, Keisha Lewis.
• Nikki M. James (Suffs), Shoshana Bean (Hell’s Kitchen), Joy Woods, and Leslie Rodriguez Kritzer (Spamalot) all jockey for fifth slot.
• Dan: “For Suffs, I love the show. I love both of those performances. I think Jenn Colella's works better for me just as a role...” (125:56)

Featured Actor in a Musical

• Standouts: Daniel Radcliffe (Merrily), Steven Skybell (Cabaret), Paul Alexander Nolan (Water for Elephants), Joshua Boone (The Outsiders).
• Love for scene-stealers: Tamika Lawrence (Heart of Rock and Roll), Conrad Ricamora (Here Lies Love), Roger Bart/Brandon Victor Dixon (Back to the Future/Hell’s Kitchen).

Book, Score, and Choreography

Book

• General agreement: weak year for new musical books.
• Predictions: Suffs, Outsiders, Water for Elephants, Hell’s Kitchen, Days of Wine and Roses.
• Matt: “I can't bring myself to put in a fifth... I thought this was a really bad year for books.” (80:32)
• Both praise Suffs and Great Gatsby for major improvement from out-of-town tryouts, and debate whether Illinois qualifies as a "book".

Original Score

• Top contenders: Days of Wine and Roses, Stereophonic, Suffs, The Outsiders, Notebook, Here Lies Love
• Dan prefers Harmony and How to Dance in Ohio for “writing for character’s voices”.
• Debate on whether the music within Stereophonic qualifies as a Best Score: “I feel like the way that it works dramatically is David Adjmi, not the songs themselves.” — Dan (87:41)

Choreography

• Illinois and Outsiders seen as likely locks; Water for Elephants, Hell’s Kitchen, Tommy, Great Gatsby in contention.
• Both hosts love Once Upon a One More Time’s “really great choreography,” a performance highlight even in a mixed show (92:38).
• Matt on Hell’s Kitchen: “Four numbers where I go, yes this rocks, and then another four where I go, oh no, not only should there be no dance here... you’re doing so much dance that I’m actually—” (93:00)

Direction, Revival & Other Major Categories

Direction of a Musical

• Strong likelihood of a groundbreaking all-women nominee field: Maria Friedman (Merrily), Rebecca Frecknall (Cabaret), Danya Taymor (Outsiders), Lee Silverman (Suffs), and possibly Jessica Stone (Water for Elephants) or Justin Peck (Illinois).
• Matt: “If that show [Illinois] is as formidable as people say, they need a direction nominee, and so I’m going to give that to Justin.”
• Both want to recognize directors who successfully “fix” long-difficult shows or deliver major imaginative leaps.
• Matt jokes: “I would love to try mine [categories] out where it’s just performers that I like… if you are not in there, it’s because I don’t like you and you need to take that personally.” (23:08)

Revival of a Musical/Play

• Merrily We Roll Along is seen as the clear musical revival frontrunner, over Cabaret, Tommy, Gutenberg, and The Wiz.
• Enemy of the People, Appropriate, and Pearly Victorious are the top play revival picks; Dan would rather see Doubt than Pearly, breaking with Matt.
• Discussion of the strengths and flaws of these productions, especially the warmth and “tonal fix” for Merrily.
• Dan: “I thought [Merrily] felt halfway warm… Instead of just being, like, ‘Well, we know they’re doomed,’ I felt like the ending… was just one way they could go.” (112:52)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “You’re seeing some of how the sausage gets made. I think you’ll be a little disappointed at the end because… there’s no magic trick.” — Matt on his podcast process (01:28)
• “Empathy is a thing.” — Matt, on those who dismiss “heavy” or unfamiliar subject matter in plays (14:01)
• Dan’s proposal: “Splitting acting categories by new work and revival with an all-gender category.” (22:28)
• On critics influencing awards: “There’s a sense critics are making their opinions public all year… it’s not the same as just voting once at the end.” — Dan
• Repeated fondness for under-the-radar great performances — e.g., “Give her a hug and a kiss and a Tony for [Jaja's]” (65:36)
• Matt and Dan recount the Enemy of the People performance disrupted by climate protesters: "I fully did not [realize it was real]... I was like, wow, Ushers dressed up as police, question mark." (63:21)

Closing Thoughts & Resources

Closing Reflections:

• 2024 is a wildly unpredictable Tony season. There are very few categories with consensus frontrunners; much depends on small shifts in taste and voting pools.
• “There is no new musical this season that has everyone behind it.” — Matt
• Both hosts emphasize how the diversity of perspectives (and the quirks of the Tony administration) will yield some pleasant surprises — and some heartbreak.

Where to Hear More:

• Dan Rubins’ podcast: The Present Stage (“conversations with theater writers”)
• Dan’s nonprofit: Hear Your Song (collaborative songwriting with youth with serious illnesses)
• Matt Koplik on Instagram

Memorable Sign-Off:

• Dan’s pick for the outro diva: Kelli O’Hara, singing “What If” from Sweet Smell of Success (139:10)

For the full deep-dive into every category, impassioned defense of under-recognized artists, and the joy of Tony discourse, listen to the full episode of Broadway Breakdown on your favorite podcast app!