Broadway Breakdown Podcast

Episode: 2024 Tony Predictions: Bold, Brave and Early (with Dylan MacDowell)

Date: February 22, 2024
Host: Matt Koplik
Guest: Dylan MacDowell

Overview

In this lively, high-energy episode, Matt Koplik welcomes fellow theatre podcaster Dylan MacDowell to make bold, brave, and (very) early predictions for the 2024 Tony Awards. With over a dozen new musicals yet to open and voters’ tastes ever unpredictable, Matt and Dylan dive headfirst into Tony prognostication, blending personal opinions with theatre industry trends and a good dose of hubris. The discussion bounces from historic patterns and nomination politics to granular debates about shows, performances, marketing, and Broadway's turbulent 2023–24 season.

Key Discussion Points

1. Tony Nomination Process & Politics

• Matt and Dylan discuss how Tony nominations are shaped not just by artistic merit but by industry politics, marketing strategies, and changing nomination committees.
• “The Tonys are ultimately politics… it’s not just what’s best, it’s who can get what blocks of voters, and how the narrative around a show is built.” (Matt, 01:39)
• Shows like Miss Saigon (1991) and Aida (2000) are referenced as examples of the politics affecting nominations and wins (01:49–12:04).
• They note the absence of direct Tony "precursors," contrasting with the Oscars:
  “There are no real precursors for the Tonys… Even if someone sweeps Drama Desk or Outer Critics, it may not mean a Tony win.” (Matt, 03:08)

2. Best Musical: Who's on Top?

• Front-runners:
  • The Notebook is the early favorite, praised as a “human musical” with strong performances and momentum (05:07–06:44).
    • “It’s a beautiful adaptation, with a gorgeous score and brilliant performances.” (Dylan, 05:07)
  • Days of Wine and Roses is seen as a likely nominee, especially given its creative pedigree, even if closed by nomination time (14:16–14:54).
  • Water for Elephants is compared to “Paradise Square” or “New York, New York”—a show likely to rack up nominations, especially for design and technical categories (16:51–17:51).
• Other strong contenders:
  • Suffs is flagged as a potential nominee due to its high-profile producers (Hillary Clinton, Malala), all-female cast, and Broadway revisions (17:56–19:06).
  • Lempicka garners intrigue for its strong cast and Chavkin’s direction, though opinions are mixed on its score (“Woman Is” debate, 26:21–28:14).
  • Here Lies Love is a wildcard, recognized for its technical and artistic achievement despite an early closure (29:00).
  • Back to the Future is not respected within the Broadway community and is predicted to miss a Best Musical nomination (12:34–13:44).
• Dylan predicts Suffs might bump Days of Wine and Roses, while Matt includes both in his top 5 (28:40–29:00).

3. Marketing & "Importance" Narratives

• The hosts critique the effectiveness—and pitfalls—of marketing Broadway shows as "important" or "required viewing" for social reasons.
• “I’ve yet to see any musical become a hit by advertising ‘See our show because it’s important and you’re problematic if you don’t.’” (Matt, 08:28)
• Examples: Harmony, Bandstand, and Leopoldstadt compared for their marketing approaches, with the consensus that success is more about engagement than righteousness.

4. Trends & Stats in Musical Winners

• Most recent Best Musical winners had an off-Broadway or out-of-town tryout; opening cold on Broadway is rare and statistically disadvantaged (19:21–19:48).
• Voters tend to reward smaller or more “artistic” musicals over crowd-pleasers or franchise projects, unless a show is both: “If it happens to be a big-titted hit, all the better.” (Matt, 10:53)

5. Play Categories: A Wealth of Drama

• 2023–24 is a strong year for new plays; “the plays have been stepping their up, it’s the musicals that have been kind of leaving me on red.” (Matt, 30:19)
• Appropriate is predicted as a Revival (per Tony eligibility rumors), making Stereophonic the likely Best Play front-runner (32:31–33:06).
  • “I have this weird feeling that because Stereophonic has been so praised and has this buzz, it could even get a surprise Best Score nomination.” (Matt, 33:00)
• Other expected Play nominees: Prayer for the French Republic, Mother Play, Patriots, and Jaja’s African Hair Braiding (41:36–42:23).

6. Revival Categories

• Best Musical Revival: Battle between Merrily We Roll Along and Cabaret (“Merrily is such a moment in the season,” 45:04–46:26).
• The Who’s Tommy and Gutenberg! are in the running, with Spamalot and The Wiz possibly filling out the category (48:05).

7. Performance Categories: Deep Dives

• Best Actor in a Musical:

  • Locks: Jonathan Groff (Merrily), Brian d’Arcy James (Days of Wine and Roses), Eddie Redmayne (Cabaret).
  • Legacy/possible nominations: Chip Zien (Harmony), Grant Gustin (The Outsiders), Andrew Rannells/Josh Gad (Gutenberg! if there's confusion/consensus, 61:07).
  • Dylan: “This category so far is very white… I do think one of the only possibilities for an actor of color is James Monroe Iglehart for Spamalot.” (56:11)

• Best Actress in a Musical:

  • Anticipated nominees: Kelli O’Hara (Days of Wine and Roses), Marian Plunkett (The Notebook), Malia Joy Moon (Hell’s Kitchen), Gail Rankin (Cabaret), Eden Espinosa (Lempicka).
  • Tonys love a newcomer but often reward “overdue” or multi-nominated stars; trend analysis discussed at length (66:38–68:05).

• Featured Categories:

  • Featured Actress, Musical: Lindsay Mendez, Bebe Neuwirth, Keisha Lewis, Joy Woods, Nikki M. James likely. Leslie Kritzer may sneak in for Spamalot (100:02–101:52).
  • Featured Actor, Musical: Daniel Radcliffe (Merrily), Paul Nolan (Water for Elephants), Stephen Skybell (Cabaret), possible inclusion for Ryan Vasquez (Notebook) and Conrad Ricamora (Here Lies Love).

• Performance trends:

  • Featured musical winners often correlate with one big “moment” or a strong, singular stage presence (83:38).
  • Attendance records matter; poor attendance can cost a Tony win (75:41–77:17).

8. Score, Book, and Design Categories

• Score:
  • Matt’s early picks: Notebook, Here Lies Love, Days of Wine and Roses, Stereophonic (as a play with songs), and Suffs.
  • Harmony is a possible, if less likely, legacy nominee for Manilow/Sussman (51:09).
• Book:
  • Favorites: Craig Lucas (Days of Wine and Roses), Becca Brunstetter (Notebook), Rick Elice (Water for Elephants), Adam Rapp (The Outsiders), Bruce Sussman (Harmony).
• Design categories:
  • Set/lighting: Here Lies Love, Cabaret, Lempicka, Gatsby, Water for Elephants called out as top contenders (130:38–132:09).
  • Choreography: wide open, but “most choreo” may win rather than “best” (131:53).
  • Orchestrations and sound: usually track with score or big-budget revivals.

9. Wildcards & Notable Quotes

• Stereophonic could "break all the rules" this season; look for possible cross-category nominations (141:14).
• Matt on trends: “Recency bias is very much a thing with Tony voters… If you are a musical and competing, you need to be running.” (45:41)
• Tonys “play fast and loose” with eligibility, especially in revival categories (31:07–32:24).

Notable Moments & Memorable Quotes

On “important” show marketing:

“I’ve yet to see any musical become a hit by advertising ‘See our show because it’s important and you’re problematic if you don’t.’”
—Matt, 08:28

On Broadway politics:

“It’s not just what’s best, it’s who can get what blocks of voters, and how the narrative around a show is built.”
—Matt, 01:39

On The Notebook as a front-runner:

“It’s a beautiful adaptation, with a gorgeous score and brilliant performances.”
—Dylan, 05:07

On predicting Back to the Future:

“That show is not respected pretty much by anybody. The general idea is, I am so glad my friend is employed.”
—Matt, 13:01

On old/new Broadway trends:

“I want us to start doing it more with the actors in a musical. Diversity is not just ethnicity, it’s also age.”
—Matt, 58:37

On Merrily and “fixing” shows:

“Maria Friedman did not fix ‘Merrily We Roll Along’… She’s made it work probably better than most people have made it work, but… Merrily will never actually work.”
—Matt, 122:38

Timestamps for Major Segments

00:02 – Intro, setting tone, Tony politics chat
04:53 – FIRST CATEGORY: Best Musical predictions begin
05:07–06:44 – The Notebook as season’s first front-runner
14:16–17:51 – Days of Wine and Roses, Water for Elephants, Suffs, Lempicka debates
21:23 – Hell’s Kitchen, marketing/critical tepidness
24:03 – Design/advance sales and technical nominations
28:40–29:35 – Here Lies Love as wildcard; closed shows
31:07–32:24 – Play/Revival distinctions; Tony eligibility
33:00 – Stereophonic’s “surprise Best Score” potential
41:15–42:23 – Play nominees & wildcard picks
45:04–48:06 – Best Revival of a Musical, front-runners
54:32 – Performance categories begin (Actor in a Musical)
66:38–69:10 – Actress in a Musical; “overdue” versus newcomer trends
82:23–101:33 – Featured categories, performance analysis
110:08–118:39 – Play acting categories
119:08–129:36 – Director, Book, Choreography, and Design
144:31 – Excitement for the crowded, competitive 2024 season
148:09 – Reflections on the boldness of predictions/vibe check

Flow & Tone

• The episode captures Matt’s signature mix of humor, strong opinions, and deep Broadway nerdery, heavily leveraging inside-theatre references and no-holds-barred language (self-described: “foul-mouthed”).
• Dylan matches Matt’s energy, balances the conversation with smart counterpoints, and brings knowledge from his own podcast, “Drama.”
• Their dynamic includes riffing on classic Tony “stats,” referencing both obscure and blockbuster shows, and frequent self-parody.

Key Takeaways for Listeners

• If you want a crash course in Tony trends, industry gossip, and what’s probably up for the 2024 Tonys (with tons of caveats), this episode is packed with insight.
• Expect blunt, occasionally brutal opinions, but always backed by history and a deep love for theatre.
• The 2024 Tony race is wide open: expect surprises and “meta-narratives” about what wins, what doesn’t, and who gets left out in the cold.

Endnote

“There are some people who got nominated for shit purely off their vibes. And I say to them, teach me your ways, because I would love five Tony nominations!”
—Matt, 148:20

Want more of Matt’s (and Dylan’s) hot takes?

• Follow Matt on Instagram: @mattkoplik
• Listen to Drama with Dylan & Connor: @thedramapodcast
• Subscribe to Broadway Breakdown on Substack and your favorite podcast platforms.