Broadway Breakdown Podcast
Episode: 2025 Tony Awards: WAY Too Early Predictions (w/ David J. Lynch)
Host: Matt Koplik | Guest: David J. Lynch
Release Date: January 16, 2025
Episode Overview
In this energetic and no-holds-barred discussion, host Matt Koplik is joined by producer David J. Lynch for their "WAY Too Early 2025 Tony Award Predictions." The two ultra-insider Broadway experts run through nearly every major Tony category, making predictions, debating current buzz, and analyzing the wildcards for the season to come—despite the fact that half the shows haven’t even opened yet. With plenty of theater-world tea, zingers, and in-depth analysis, this episode is a jam-packed look at what might shape Broadway’s biggest night, as of January 2025.
Key Discussion Points and Insights
1. Why “Way Too Early” Tony Predictions?
- Changing landscape: Last year’s predictions (done later in the season) were still upended by eligibility rulings and surprise reviews. (“Even that was too early.” – David, 01:23)
- Insider intuition vs. gut: Matt and David emphasize their inside-baseball theater contacts, but admit there’s plenty of “flying free and blind.”
- The community pulse vs. public buzz: Off-the-record voter attitudes sometimes sharply differ from what’s seen on social media or in reviews. Matt recounts how Hell’s Kitchen’s apparent frontrunner status evaporated among actual voters.
- “I didn’t speak to a single person who actually enjoyed Hell’s Kitchen...Everyone was just looking for the best option to vote against it.” – Matt (06:14)
2. Predictions: Major Acting Categories
Leading Actress in a Musical
- Tier 1: Locks
- Nicole Scherzinger (Sunset Boulevard)
- Audra McDonald (Gypsy)
- “Those are absolutely locks. Nicole was locked the moment they announced Sunset was transferring.” – Matt (12:31)
- Likely Nominees:
- Megan Hilty (Death Becomes Her)
- Jasmine Amy Rogers (Boop) – called a "star-making role"
- Bubble/Alternates:
- Adrienne Warren (The Last Five Years), Idina Menzel (Redwood), Sutton Foster (Once Upon a Mattress), Robin Herter (Smash), Lucy Godinez (Real Women Have Curves), Mincemeat & Pirates of Penzance contenders
“The Tonys love to acknowledge ingénues. This is the category that most awards the new thing on the scene.” – Matt (14:37)
Leading Actress in a Play
- Locks:
- Sarah Snook (The Picture of Dorian Gray) – “won the Olivier”
- Laura Donnelly (Hills of California)
- Probable:
- Jessica Hecht (Eureka Day – “if considered lead”),
- Sidney Lemon (Job)
- Mia Farrow (The Roommate) – “the one thing everyone agreed on was that Mia Farrow was a delightful surprise”
- Potential Spoilers/Bubble:
- Carrie Young (Purpose), Sadie Sink (John Proctor is the Villain), Molly Osborne (Othello), others
3. Design Categories (Plays): Early Picks and Wildcards
Set Design – Plays
- Top picks:
- Hills of California
- Stranger Things (spectacle)
- The Picture of Dorian Gray (heavy on projections)
- Eureka Day (not “lavish” but detailed and effective)
- Possible:
- Good Night and Good Luck, Othello, English (for its “rotating cube” set)
“Sometimes a simple set will still get nominated…if it’s very specific.” – Matt (30:15)
Costume, Lighting & Sound
- Oh, Mary and Dorian Gray considered major contenders for costume; Stranger Things, Hills of California, Dorian Gray dominate lighting and sound discussions.
- Many caveats: “Too early to call, but that’s the fun.”
4. Insider “Flex” & The Importance of “Vibe”
- Repeatedly, both hosts stress that their theater world connections help them detect the “real” vibes behind the buzz.
- Examples:
- Slave Play’s “locked” status evaporated because, behind the scenes, key community members didn’t like it and primed voters to go with the less controversial The Inheritance.
- Play and musical nominations are often about momentum, not just reviews.
5. Musical Director & Design Categories
Best Direction of a Musical
- Top three locks:
- David Cromer (Dead Outlaw)
- Michael Arden (Maybe Happy Ending)
- Jamie Lloyd (Sunset Boulevard)
- Contenders/fight for recognition:
- George C. Wolfe (Gypsy), Tina Landau (Floyd Collins), Buena Vista Social Club, Jerry Mitchell (Boop), Pirates of Penzance, others
- New musicals must "break through the noise" with excellence.
Set, Costume, Lighting, Sound – Musicals
- Sunset Boulevard, Death Becomes Her, Maybe Happy Ending, Floyd Collins, and Boop mentioned regularly.
- Piracy, spectacle, and technical innovation highlighted as differentiators.
6. Featured Categories: The Most Unpredictable
Featured Actress in a Musical
- Assuming Jennifer Simard (Death Becomes Her) and Helen J. Shen (Maybe Happy Ending) are placed in featured:
- Both are absolute locks.
- Rest of category: Open field – Jinkx Monsoon (Pirates of Penzance), Natalie Venetia Belcon (Buena Vista Social Club), Joy Woods (Gypsy), Lea Salonga (Old Friends), others in the mix.
- “If Jennifer [Simard] is in featured, she’s absolutely getting nominated and I am gonna put money on her winning.” – Matt (93:05)
7. Featured Actor in a Musical
- “Usually it’s about ‘setting a vibe’ more than a showstopping number.”
- Probables:
- Danny Burstein (Herbie in Gypsy)
- Michael Urie (Once Upon a Mattress)
- Tom Sesma (Dead Outlaw)
- David Thaxton (Sunset Boulevard)
- Jason Gotay/Taylor Trensch (Floyd Collins)
- Jack Malone (Operation Mincemeat), David Hyde Pierce (Pirates, if in featured)
- “A lot of the people coming haven’t performed yet…” – Matt
8. Book, Score, and Orchestrations
- Best Score:
- Maybe Happy Ending, Dead Outlaw, Death Becomes Her, Operation Mincemeat, Boop commonly cited
- Smash could sneak in if eligible; technicalities debated
- Book:
- Maybe Happy Ending, Dead Outlaw, Operation Mincemeat, Death Becomes Her, Buena Vista Social Club
- Orchestrations:
- Dead Outlaw, Maybe Happy Ending, Buena Vista Social Club, Swept Away, Pirates
9. Featured Actress/Actor in a Play
- “Absolutely not a single lock.”
- Open field includes: Bianca Leigh (Oh, Mary), Amber Gray (Eureka Day), Helena Wilson (Hills of California), Molly Bernard (Cult of Love), Latonya Richardson Jackson (Purpose).
- Featured actor: Kieran Culkin & Bob Odenkirk (Glengarry Glen Ross, if not a “train wreck”), Conrad Ricamora (Oh, Mary), James Scully (Oh, Mary), Francis Jue (Yellowface), others.
10. Best Musical and Play Revivals
- Musical Revival:
- Locks: Sunset Boulevard, Gypsy
- Strong contenders: Floyd Collins, Once Upon a Mattress
- “We are here for the chaos” of Pirates or Floyd Collins breaking through.
- Last Five Years could sneak in if it works in the Hudson.
- Play Revival:
- Glengarry Glen Ross, Othello, Our Town, Yellowface
- “Our Town is considered the better play and has a positive message.”
11. Best Play & Best Musical Predictions
- Best Play:
- Oh, Mary – “leading the charge”
- Hills of California – “British import” factor
- English (Pulitzer winner), Purpose, Eureka Day/Cult of Love
- Best Musical:
- Dead Outlaw, Maybe Happy Ending, Operation Mincemeat, Death Becomes Her, Buena Vista Social Club (“almost the same five for both Matt and David”)
- Surprising underdog runs remain possible (“Redwood, it’s yours for the taking!”)
Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
- “We're just gonna do our best to make informed decisions. And a couple of spaghetti at the wall throws.” – Matt (02:01)
- “You and I are in the community. You know, you know, we know people. Or the community’s inside of you, but either way, who’s to say, I won't fucking punch you.” – David (05:46)
- “The thing about Mattress for me is... it's like a little more fine now. It's not great." – Matt (152:08)
- “If Jennifer is in featured, she's absolutely getting nominated and I am gonna put money on her winning.” – Matt (93:05)
- “I describe a revival the same way that the Supreme Court defined pornography. I can't give you a definition. I just know it when I see it.” – Matt (104:57)
- On sound design: “When it’s really, really good, you notice it, and when it’s really, really bad, you notice it.” – Matt (59:07)
- About Carolee Carmello’s name being used by a gay porn star as his acting inspiration (162:14):
“Much like you can't pin down Carolee Carmelo's type, girlfriend is V verse. Love her.”
Timestamps for Major Segments
- 01:00 – Opening banter; why predictions this early are “insane”
- 02:11 – How Tony predictions are “about the pulse. ”
- 09:19 – First major category: Leading Actress, Musical
- 20:39 – Leading Actress, Play
- 27:13 – All four play design categories rapid-fire
- 39:10 – Rapid hits on musical director/design categories
- 49:47 – Leading Actor in a Play
- 58:22 – Sound/Lights/Costume/Orch for musicals
- 86:47 – Featured Actress in a Musical (deep dive, Simard focus)
- 97:14 – Featured Actor/Actress in Play, Actor in Musical
- 116:51 – Choreography category
- 126:03 – Book & Score (musical)
- 133:35 – Director of a Play
- 138:28 – Leading Actor in a Musical
- 145:55 – Musical & Play Revivals
- 157:44 – Best Play lineup discussion
- 164:52 – Best Musical: Final summary predictions (“almost the same five”)
Tone & Language
- Unfiltered, playful, and crass (“I don't like when other people make jokes about me being slutty; I like it when I make jokes about me being slut,” Matt, 80:26), full of theatre geek jargon, and packed with inside references.
- Willfully opinionated, with plenty of self-aware digressions: gay community in-jokes, Broadway “family drama,” and raw acknowledgments of how unpredictable the Tonys can be.
Final Thoughts
Matt and David’s “WAY Too Early” Tony predictions is an essential listening experience for anyone who wants to plug into Broadway’s inner gossip, tribal wisdom, and true behind-the-scenes machinations. While almost half their picks are made with a “spaghetti at the wall” humility, their industry contacts and candid observations make this a refreshingly honest, sometimes raucous, but always sharply informed forecast for Tony season 2025.
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