2026 Tony Awards: Big Swings, Loud Pleas and Final Predictions

Summary

Broadway Breakdown Podcast

Host: Matt Koplik
Episode: 2026 Tony Awards: Big Swings, Loud Pleas and Final Predictions
Date: May 3, 2026

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Episode Overview

With Tony Award nominations imminent (to be revealed May 5th), Matt Koplik assembles a roundtable of theater experts, podcasters, and super-fans to throw out bold predictions, dissect likely contenders, and debate unexpected dark horses. Instead of a formal prediction list, Matt gathers big swings, strong intuitions, and last-minute Tony buzz from special guests—including Casey Balsham (It’s Broadway, Bitch), Juan Ramirez (Theaterly), Sam Ekman (Gold Derby), and the Drama twins Connor and Dylan—plus the Broadway Breakdown Discord community. Expect passionate (and very opinionated) discussion on who will overperform, who might get snubbed, and the narratives driving Broadway’s most hotly contested season.

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1. Setting the Stage: Tony Nominations and Major Themes

(00:25 – 04:34)

• Host Introduction: Matt greets listeners and frames this as the final “pre-noms” Tony episode, taking a pulse on the community’s wildest hunches and sharp intuitions rather than offering traditional predictions.
• Podcast Reviews & Community: Matt reads glowing listener reviews from theater educators and fans (01:57), highlighting the podcast’s growing influence among drama teachers seeking insider content.

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2. SEGMENT 1: Casey Balsham (It’s Broadway, Bitch)

(04:34 – 19:18)

Key Discussion Points

• Lost Boys Mania:
  • Casey predicts The Lost Boys will dominate nominations: “My absolute gut reaction is saying that Lost Boys is going to take the whole shebang…It is winning, and it is recouping…I think Lost Boys will find the same thing.” (04:53)
  • Big shows with spectacle are “what we deserve,” even if reviews are mixed: “We deserve fire. We deserve pyrotechnics. We deserve a homoerotic love story. We deserve it all.” (05:29)
• Twink Musicals & Broadway Pandering: Running joke returns about Lost Boys being the year’s "twink musical" and benefiting from a cult following. (06:07)
• Nominations Math: Field expanded for leading actors/actresses, leading to fewer snubs: “Ragtime’s gonna have minimum four acting nominations…” (07:32)
• Notable Performers:
  • Superfan odes to Paul Alexander Nolan (“He is so talented…He is incredible. Paul Alexander Nolan for everything. I want him to win best lighting. I want him to win best book. I would like him to win best choreography.” – Casey, 11:03)
  • Lamenting perennial snubs for Nolan and Isabel Michaela.
• Big Swings & Industry Scandals:
  • Predicts Kristin Chenoweth (Queen of Versailles) will score a nomination for “Broadway legacy” reasons.
  • Discusses Scott Rudin’s “unpunished” comeback, with the expectation Queen of Versailles will get nominated despite industry outrage. (13:46–14:47)
• Nominators Discussion: Unique insight that Tony nominator stints are just 3 years, refreshing perspectives and avoiding “lifetime appointment” syndrome. (15:25)
• Acting Categories:
  • John Lithgow as a perennial darling: “They love Lithgow…Just give John Lithgow!” (16:58)
  • Kara Young as an “unmissable” presence, possibly setting a nominations record. (17:31)
  • Featured Play Actress category described as “jam packed.”

Memorable Moment

• On Paul Alexander Nolan’s lack of awards: “The man showed dong on stage in Slave Play and we still didn’t nominate him. I’m like, what does he have to f***ing do?” – Matt (12:19)

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3. SEGMENT 2: Juan Ramirez (Theater Critic, Theaterly)

(19:23 – 58:30)

Key Discussion Points

• Costume & Design Races:
  • Queen Jean “locks” for Cats: Jellicoe Ball: “If you tell the AI in my mind to spit out a million dollars, Kelli O’Hara was burned, period. That’s what would come out.” (24:24)
  • Calls for more contemporary designs to be rewarded: “Nominators need to take more contemporary designs seriously…just as mindful as any period show.” (23:03)
• Play Revival Races:
  • Joe Turner’s Come and Gone is period catnip for nominators but flagged for “lack of cohesion,” and possible overperformance in nominations. (23:03–24:24)
  • Praise for Becky Shaw as a “goddamn Pulitzer finalist that I don’t think many of us had ever heard of…biggest happy surprise of this entire theater season.” (32:06)
• Acting Categories:
  • Leslie Manville and Mark Strong discussed as possible snubs.
  • Play acting categories (featured and lead) described as “insane,” with no clear locks: “Best actors, we have five. Susannah Flood lock, Leslie Manville lock…I think Carrie [Coon] is kind of sixth place here.” (30:59)
  • Featured Play Actors: rooting for Alden Ehrenreich, Christopher Abbott, and hoping for “freak pick” Brandon Jerdan.
• Musical Categories:
  • Featured Actor: Leighton Williams (Titanique), Ali Louis Bourzgui (Lost Boys) noted as likely. “He’s such a f***ing star. It’s unbelievable.” – Juan on Ali (50:52)
  • Diminished belief in Andre De Shields as a lock to win, but expects the nomination.
• Featured Actress in a Musical:
  • Wild year, potential for a tie, and many storylines depend on enthusiasm for the respective musicals (“butterfly effects”).
  • Nichelle Lewis (Ragtime) performance “not Audra” but possible beneficiary of a weak field.
• Calls for Recognition:
  • Alden Ehrenreich’s brilliance (“Let’s give him that [Tony]. He’s such a movie star. He’s so funny and sexy.” – Juan, 57:07)
  • Leighton Williams (“Just. Guys, come on. You know you wanna [nominate him for Titanique].” – Matt, 58:10)

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4. SEGMENT 3: Sam Ekman (Gold Derby Awards Expert)

(58:33 – 83:25)

Key Discussion Points

• Musical Toss-Ups:
  • Two Strangers, Lost Boys, and Schmigadoon all could win Best Musical. “Each of the four musicals have positives…and then, you know, negatives in their corner for why they could or couldn’t win.” (60:01)
  • Notes the recent eligibility rulings have improved Schmigadoon’s path, particularly via Best Score nomination.
  • Limited run status for Schmigadoon possibly hinders its chances, unless the show announces an extension à la “Operation Mincemeat”.
• Lost Boys vs. Trends:
  • “Big, operatic scale” could split voters, some craving spectacle, others desiring “down-home, simplistic” stories like Two Strangers. (65:36)
• Play Revivals:
  • Predicts domination by Cats: Jellicoe Ball, Salesman, and Ragtime in nomination counts.
• Wildest Acting Categories:
  • Featured Actress in a Play: “No one has scored in all [the precursor awards] except for Laurie Metcalf. If you wind up one of those women with a nomination there this year, know you made it in the hardest race.” (67:07)
  • Discusses possible snubs of beloved figures due to weak overall show reception (Dog Day Afternoon, Proof).
  • Works predictions backward from which productions are “most likely” to be embraced.
• Featured Actor in a Play:
  • “I feel like it’s whittled down to seven people…would be shocked if it was anyone else.” (70:46)
  • Ruben Santiago-Hudson named frontrunner for his August Wilson performance.
• Marjorie Prime Advocacy:
  • Sam’s most passionate plea: “I really just need Marjorie Prime to not be snubbed…some of the most exquisite acting…June Squibb, Cynthia Nixon…I feel like I’ve never seen her better in anything.” (78:53)

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5. SEGMENT 4: Connor & Dylan (Drama Podcast Twins)

(84:14 – 106:50)

Key Discussion Points

• The Pre-Noms Excitement:
  • “Once noms come out, things get a little too serious. But now…it’s so fun. You can throw all the pasta at the wall that you want.” (85:50, Dylan)
  • Tony morning is “the most bittersweet day”—so much hope, so much inevitable disappointment.
• Best Musical:
  • Dylan is “leading the Two Strangers campaign” and predicts it will win Best Musical.
    • “If I would have been told…that it would be the frontrunner in score and musical…I would have probably laughed.” (87:20)
  • Feels Sam Tutty could upset, but expects Joshua Henry to win for Leading Actor.
• Featured Actor/Actress in a Musical:
  • Connor predicts Constantine Rousouli (Titanique) will be a rare double nominee, for both Featured Actor and Book (89:59). “If you’re hot and talented, you can get nominated for awards.” (90:06)
  • Dylan predicts Jim Parsons (Titanique) will edge out Leighton Williams for a nomination.
  • “Featured Actress in a Musical…no one is really safe, including Nichelle [Lewis], who I think a lot of people have as a front-runner…I think Nichelle could totally get chopped.” (101:17)
  • Hannah Cruz (Chess) a wishful nomination, with hopes for all three Schmigadoon women too.
• Chess Overperformance:
  • Prediction that Chess will “overperform on nomination morning…revival nomination and four acting nominations.” (97:21)
  • Want both Kelli O’Hara & Rose Byrne to be in for Fallen Angels.
• Other Notables:
  • Skimbleshanks love: “Emma Sophia, Skimbleshanks. Like, get bitch in there.” (102:26)
  • Hot men: “Clock twink is dead. Long live the clock twunk.” (106:11)

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6. Discord Community Big Swings

(106:50 – 115:10)

• On the Bubble:
  • Ben Levi Ross (Ragtime), Bryce Pinkham (Chess), Max Clayton (Schmigadoon), Junior LaBeija (Cats), Paul Alexander Nolan (Lost Boys) all have niche support.
• Possible Big Swings:
  • Ken Ard for DJ Griddlebone, Brad Oscar, featuring actor nods for less obvious players.
  • Emma Sophia (Cats), Hannah Cruz (Chess), Melody Butiu (Queen of Versailles) as left-field featured actress candidates.
• Bold Suggestions:
  • Queen of Versailles orchestrations, Joe Turner for director and supporting actors, Chess for costumes, sound design for Every Brilliant Thing.
• Cautions:
  • Tony nominators have a record of sometimes disregarding scandals or past complaints (e.g., Queen of Versailles).
  • Sometimes acclaimed actors are nominated for their least showy role rather than their best.

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7. Timestamps for Key Segments

• [00:25] – Ep. intro, Tony theme, host banter
• [04:34] – Casey Balsham interview: Lost Boys, legacy noms, actor deep dives
• [19:23] – Juan Ramirez: design, play revivals, acting categories
• [58:33] – Sam Ekman: musical toss-ups, acting categories, Marjorie Prime plea
• [84:14] – Connor & Dylan (Drama): pre-noms chaos, featured categories, Chess, hot takes
• [106:50] – Discord swings: niche predictions, unexpected possibilities

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Notable Quotes & Moments

• “We deserve fire. We deserve pyrotechnics. We deserve a homoerotic love story. We deserve it all.” — Casey Balsham [05:29]
• “The man showed dong on stage in Slave Play and we still didn’t nominate him. I’m like, what does he have to f***ing do?” — Matt Koplik [12:19]
• “You tell the AI in my mind to spit out a million dollars, Kelli O’Hara was burned, period. That’s what would come out.” — Juan Ramirez [24:24]
• “If you wind up one of those women with a nomination there this year, know that you made it in the hardest race.” — Sam Ekman [67:07]
• “If you’re hot and talented, you can get nominated for awards.” — Dylan (Drama Podcast) [90:06]
• “Clock twink is dead. Long live the clock twunk.” — Matt Koplik [106:11]

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Final Thoughts and Pleas to Tony Nominators

• Marjorie Prime Deserves Recognition: "Some of the most exquisite acting."
• Give Queen Jean Two Tonys! For design work on Cats: Jellicoe Ball and Liberation.
• Don’t Forget the Oddballs: Case made for Queen of Versailles Score, Emma Sophia as Skimbleshanks, Ben Allers’ “Clock Twunk” appeal.
• Chess, Chess, Chess: Potential surprise overperformance flagged by both fans and guests.
• Let’s See Bold Choices: More contemporary designs, outlier performers, quirky acting nods.

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Episode Vibe

Brash, fast-moving, deeply nerdy, and affectionately foul-mouthed—an inside-baseball, joyful brawl among NYC’s most obsessed theater geeks. Matt and guests are honest about industry biases, call out Tony politics, and are unafraid to cheerlead for unsung stars, send up legacy darlings, and lament perennial snubs. The consensus: this is a year for big swings, both on the stage and at the nomination table.

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Useful for:

• Quickly grasping all likely, likely-not, and totally wild Tony nominee scenarios
• Knowing exactly which “twunk” the white gays are rooting for
• Hearing which design elements and revivals theater’s top critics are secretly obsessed with
• Deciphering Broadway’s current voting politics, legendary grievances, and viral inside jokes
• Gleaning real-time, straight-from-the-bar Tony buzz and passionate pleas

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Subscribe for More: bwaybreakdown.substack.com

Transcript

[Matt Koplik]

Why not?

[Connor McDowell]

Think of the prestige. Think of the respect.

[Matt Koplik]

No, no, no.

[Sam Ekman]

Think of the Tony.

[Matt Koplik]

Well, hello all you theater lovers, both out and proud and on the DL. And welcome back to Broadway Breakdown, a pod discussing the history legacy of American theater's most exclusive address, Broadway. I am your host, Matt Koplik, the least famous and most opinionated of all the Broadway podcast hosts. And it is our final Tony's episode before the big day, May 5, Cinco de Mayo, where the Tony nominations will be revealed and the game will change completely. In preparation for that, rather than do my official list of predictions, I wanted to kind of do a consensus of different minds and see where people were going and have conversations with. With everybody. So I did take to the Broadway Breakdown Discord Channel and asked everybody some big swings that they were thinking about contenders for nominations that may be out of left field, that in some ways, on paper, there'd be no reason to think they would be nominated, but something in your gut tells you it could really happen. And I did the same thing for a couple of guests we have on this week's episode. So before we get to any of that, we do have two reviews. I know you can jump ahead if you really want to, but as I said, I will always read the reviews you guys write, whether they're five stars or one star or whatever. And you guys have been really crushing it with reviews lately. So really, thank you so much. And I believe we even have a couple of more ratings on Spotify. We've got some new subscribers on the YouTube, so it's. It's been a good couple of weeks with you guys really coming up to the plate, and I hope it's because the content has been sufficient for y'.

[Sam Ekman]

All.

[Matt Koplik]

All right, so let's start. The Light in the Piazza. Overture, please. Five stars. My new favorite podcast. I recently founded this podcast, and it's become an instant favorite. I've become a college instructor of theater this year, and this podcast helps keep me tuned in to Broadway's current events. It helps that Matt is sweet, funny, and handsome. Smiley face. That handsome is actually in there. I did not write that. Thank you very much. My mom agrees with you about that. Not everyone else does, though. All right, next up, five stars. Great Broadway guide. I am a high school drama teacher, and I am bringing 114 students to New York City the week after the Tonys. Oh, Godspeed. I book group tickets really early to get good pricing, and it's always a gamble. I try to pick a wide variety of shows. It is so fun. Listening to your in depth reviews that give me things to talk about with students. Oh, I'm glad. I like how when you approach your reviews, you still focus on things that work, even if it wasn't your favorite. I look forward to seeing a new episode I can listen to when I drive to work. Thank you for your in depth analysis. And then in parentheses, I am taking them to two strangers, Outsiders, Schmigadoon, the Lost Boys, Ragtime and Stranger Things. They get three open slots to see things on their own. That's a nice array of stuff. Well done. Thank you very much, Clyn Eaton and as well as Jack Greenwood. 97. Thank you very much. I've got some nice theater instructors listening to this podcast, so in some ways I could say I'm an educator myself. No, that's a wonderful array of shows. I hope they go see a couple of other plays, the Ballisters maybe or even Becky Shaw or Death of a Salesman. That would all be wonderful. So thank you very much for that. I will go into a couple of segments now. So we've got 4, 4 separated pre recorded segments and if you're watching this on YouTube, you can guess in what order I recorded them based off of what I'm currently wearing and how clean shaven I am in this moment. First up, we have friend of the pod, Casey Balsham. Many of you would know Casey as the host of the new theater podcast It's Broadway Bitch, which is making a huge sweep across platforms on TikTok and Instagram and of course on the regular podcast streaming platforms. You can listen to my episode on her podcast wherever you'd like, as well as interviews with Barrett Wilburd, Weed and Jerry Mitchell and so many other incredible talents. And I don't know how I was lucky enough to get in there. But yeah, let's take a moment and dive right into Casey's interview and what she's sort of feeling from this season with the Tony nominations. Oh. Oh my letter from heaven. Hi, Casey.

[Connor McDowell]

Welcome back.

[Casey Balsham]

Hello. Thank you again for having me back. Happy to be here.

[Matt Koplik]

So Casey, we're talking some Tonys. The nominations will be coming out in a few days and I just want to get your take as someone who's seen a lot this season, who's interviewed a lot of people this season. I don't know, what are some of your gut reactions to nominations coming up?

[Casey Balsham]

I mean, my absolute gut reaction is saying that Lost Boys is going to take the whole shebang just cause listen, I think that like you had said before, it identifies more like an outsider's not a vampire. And I think that that will carry it. I mean, look at outsiders. Nobody. People were like, boo. And people like. If you look at the little thumbs and stuff like that, it had mainly middle ones. It's thriving. It is winning, and it is recouping. I think Lost Boys will find the same thing. And while I loved Two Strangers, and I remember, like, before everything came out, everyone was like, well, this is the only original musical. I loved it, but God damn it, I think we deserve people flying on a goddamn stage. I think we deserve fire. We deserve pyrotechnics. We deserve a, like a homoerotic love story. We deserve it all. You know what I mean? We just. I mean, not a love story between David and Michael, but is it not.

[Matt Koplik]

I'm. Okay, so put a pin in her. That's a whole other conversation. But I digress. Yes. I famously said on your very famous podcast, it's Broadway Bitch, available wherever you listen to podcasts.

[Casey Balsham]

Oh, thank you for that.

[Matt Koplik]

You. You're welcome. When we. When we. You brought up. No, you did. You bring. Yeah, I think you brought up Lost Boys.

[Casey Balsham]

Yeah, we said.

[Matt Koplik]

And then I had mentioned. Yeah. My thing that was. I felt it was going to do well because it identified as a twink musical.

[Casey Balsham]

As a twink musical.

[Matt Koplik]

Yes. And you better. You better believe that. And the pandering to liberal crowd clip. Those two clips have followed me ever since that episode came out, because as Lost Boys has been in previews and, like, gaining a major cult following and, you know, God. And God, like, solid reviews. Yeah. I've had people reach out to me and be like, twink musical. It shall do well.

[Casey Balsham]

It shall do well. Yes. But I do. I honestly, I was kind of like, all. When I saw Two Strangers, which I thought was just really cute, but, like. But my thing watching that was like, I. I was. I was like, gimme a set. Give me a goddamn set. And I know that. That's the thing, and I know that obviously this musical is doing fine and it's gonna get nominations and all these things for being what it is. Two people and a bunch of fucking suitcases. That. But, like, you see Lost Boys and you're like, this is what. As my marketing manager said, he goes, this is what we deserve. We deserve a show that feels like a show. Like, we deserve something big. And I do think for, you know, as mediocre as some of their views were, I think it's going to be nominated more than any other show. I mean, it has perhaps probably ragtime but they're in a different.

[Matt Koplik]

Well, we'll see. I have. Yeah, I think Ragtime, Jellicoe Ball and Lost Boys are probably going to be our leading nominees.

[Casey Balsham]

Jellicoe Ball, yes.

[Matt Koplik]

Yes. And the big thing is with Durand, that now means we have nine contenders for leading actor, which means we have five nominees.

[Casey Balsham]

And I guess that means 10 for leading actress now, right? Because there was nine before she was announced.

[Matt Koplik]

Yeah, it's 10 for actress, but we still always had five slots for actress. But now we went from four to five for men. And so it was always a question of like among Brandon Uranowitz, Luke Evans and Nick Christopher, which one's gonna get left out when we have. And now that it's five, it's like none of them. They're all just gonna get in now. So like Ragtime's gonna have minimum four acting nominations and we're between.

[Casey Balsham]

I mean it's gonna be either Nicholas Christopher or Joshua Henry. And if it's not, we're gonna burn down the building.

[Matt Koplik]

Oh, to win. Yeah. I think it's. I think it's Josh. If anyone's really coming for Josh's gig, it would be Sam Tutty for Two Strangers because.

[Casey Balsham]

Oh, yeah.

[Matt Koplik]

And the reason I say that is because I think that best musical. And I know we went from nominations to full on winning now, but welcome to the pod. I do think best musical is a three way race among Schmigadoon Two Strangers and Lost Boys. And it's really just that. No. No one of those shows has this overwhelming support from everyone. It's not that like anyone hates anything.

[Casey Balsham]

Sure.

[Matt Koplik]

It's not a maybe happy ending last year where it was like, it's not a Hamilton.

[Casey Balsham]

It's not exactly. It's not like it's. Yes.

[Matt Koplik]

Yeah. Every show has their camp of fans and a reason to vote for it and for everything that I think Lost Boys maybe kind of misses the mark on, there's something that it actually kind of nails brilliantly. And I give a lot of credit to a show that can do that. And I think as you said, you know, people want spectacle. They want to see their money on stage again. And we, I don't think it's like our, our duty to reward any show that's expensive, but a show like Lost Boys, it's not just expensive. Like there's craft to looks stunning almost from start to finish.

[Casey Balsham]

It's insane. I mean, when it first starts, I literally went, wait. Which brings me. So I guess would LJ then is considered for leading and is Ali considered for supporting? Ali is considered for leading, which is. Cause I honestly see. This is what I don't understand about nominations, because I feel like he is on stage a lot. He has got a lot to do. To me, he is more of a leading man contender than Andrew Durant, who I love. I love Andrew Duran, but I do feel like they're equally on stage.

[Matt Koplik]

Yeah, it's fluid. It's a fluid situation.

[Casey Balsham]

Yeah, I understand.

[Matt Koplik]

It's a. I think it's a combination of stage time and then also narrative focus. Right. Because weird way Rocky Horror is about Brad and Janet.

[Casey Balsham]

Sure.

[Matt Koplik]

Even though, like, once Frank N. Furter shows up, he takes over. Yeah. And then in Lost Boys, it is very much Michael's story. And because there's actually. There was a debate about this on our discord, people were not sure if Shoshana was going to be considered leader, featured. Some people, like myself, felt very strongly she was a featured role. Others felt very strongly she was a lead. And I think the argument is like, she is the largest female role, but it ultimately isn't her story. Everything about her narrative that we see is in relation to Michael's journey.

[Casey Balsham]

Yes. I get it. I get it. Yeah. Not for nothing, too, I. I am a Paul Alexander Nolan. Stan. That man can do no wrong in my book. I love him.

[Matt Koplik]

Did we not talk about this on your podcast?

[Casey Balsham]

Did we?

[Matt Koplik]

I don't remember. I won't shut up about that man.

[Casey Balsham]

I literally just. I made an appreciation post to just be like, this man keeps getting. He's the best. I hear he's a nice person. He is fun to watch. And he's been in things I thoroughly enjoy and has also gotten snubbed many a time. And he shouldn't be. He is so talented.

[Matt Koplik]

He's. He's incredible.

[Casey Balsham]

He is incredible. Paul, Alex, Alexander Nolan for everything. I want him to win best lighting. I want him to win best book. I would like him to win best choreography.

[Matt Koplik]

He deserves the best score win for that. Note, he sings before he dies.

[Casey Balsham]

My God, he is incredible. And Paul Alexander Nolan, I love you, Paul Alexander Nolan.

[Matt Koplik]

And Isabel Michaela for me. And it's ironic because they both were in waterfall.

[Casey Balsham]

I know.

[Matt Koplik]

But they are two of the most talented people working in theater right now. And I just always feel like, not that we do them dirty, but we don't quite give them the right thing to launch them. So, like Nolan, there were a couple times where I was like, we could have gotten him in there like Jesus Christ Superstar. We could have gotten him in there for lead Bright Star. We could have gotten him in there for featured. We did not have to nominate all three Hamilton men. It's okay. It's fine. Whatever.

[Casey Balsham]

Water for elephants. He should have been sorry.

[Matt Koplik]

Get him in there. The man showed Dong on stage in Slave Play, and we still didn't nominate him. I'm like, what does he have to fucking do?

[Casey Balsham]

What does he have to do?

[Matt Koplik]

What does he have to do? And as I understand it, he couldn't care less about the Tonys. But I care for him.

[Casey Balsham]

I care for him as well.

[Matt Koplik]

Yeah, let's.

[Casey Balsham]

Let's make shirts. I care for Paul Alexander Nolan.

[Matt Koplik]

I care for Paul Alexander Nolan as well.

[Casey Balsham]

That's also. I'm also going to make a shirt says Jar Head because we love Jasmine, Amy Rogers, Jarhas. I care for Paul Alexander Nolan.

[Matt Koplik]

And then. And then I am for Isabel Michaela. But I have to figure out there's a joke there with I am. I don't know.

[Casey Balsham]

I'm an in a tizzy for Izzy.

[Matt Koplik]

We're spitballing. We can't do brainstorming right now. We've got nominations.

[Connor McDowell]

We can't.

[Casey Balsham]

We've got nominations to talk about. But, yes, I guess I do. I think Lost Boys are gonna lead. Here's one. Here's a swing that I am thinking. I do think Chenoweth might get a nomination. I just feel like people are like, why not? There's almost part of me that feels like the voters are gonna make a point as to say, like, we are going to step. We're gonna see above all of the shit because we still just like her as a Broadway legacy. Also, I think that Laurie Metcalf will obviously get. And I think that the Scott Rudin play will not be punished. I think it will be absolutely celebrated, which also is like, all right, we

[Matt Koplik]

did talk about that on your podcast as well. Is. I do think it's getting nominated ultimately, because shows like Dog Day Afternoon and fear of 13 really disappointed most people. And those were, like, the chances to kick out Little Bear Ridge Road. The only other option would be Punch, and Punch could get nominated because I think Will Harrison, the lead of that, has a shot now at leading actor in a play. But I think with Queen of Versailles, a couple things. One is Schmigadoon is now eligible for score. So we've got two strangers, we've got Lost Boys, and Schmigadoon pretty much locks for best score. There are two slots left. The only other two new musical scores are Beaches and Versailles. Say what you Will, about Versailles, it's a better score than Beaches. And then like, if one of them doesn't get nominated, if both of them don't get nominated, then we're nominating two plays for their background music, which I think salesman has a shot at that. But I'm like, what are we doing here? If you acknowledge that, like, Queen of Versailles has something to.

[Casey Balsham]

It has music.

[Matt Koplik]

Yeah, yeah. And lyrics.

[Casey Balsham]

Tis a musical.

[Matt Koplik]

Yeah. Tis a musical. It has music and it has lyrics. Yes.

[Casey Balsham]

So I think that it will not be snubbed. I think. See, I think the opposite. I think people will go out of their way possibly to nominate it just to be like, we really don't care

[Connor McDowell]

about what people think.

[Matt Koplik]

They fucking voted for Nicole to win after all the, you know, where can I get that hat Stuff. So, like.

[Connor McDowell]

But she deserved it.

[Matt Koplik]

No, I know she did, but I'm just saying.

[Casey Balsham]

But that's what I'm saying. They don't care.

[Matt Koplik]

They're too busy seeing the shows and talking with each other and then nominating or voting for said shows. Yes, that's what they're doing.

[Casey Balsham]

Also, do you know what? I didn't know until I just interviewed Adam Guan, who is a. Who used to be a Tony voter.

[Connor McDowell]

Yes.

[Matt Koplik]

Oh, I know Adam.

[Casey Balsham]

He's lovely.

[Matt Koplik]

His partner, John used to be my co host on the podcast back in the 1.0 version.

[Casey Balsham]

Wait, really?

[Matt Koplik]

Yeah, really.

[Casey Balsham]

Well, he's lovely. I love his. His music is lovely. And I didn't know that it's only

[Matt Koplik]

a three year stint when you're a nominator. Yeah, it's three years.

[Casey Balsham]

Well, that's. And that's actually really nice to know that it's not the same people doing it every year. I actually had a little. Because, you know, people say whatever they, you know that they say that things are bought. Especially lately there's been a lot of discourse about, about buying reviews and buying all this stuff and even buying your spots and Sony, which, I mean, for. Not for nothing, but all the award shows have a. Have an element of that. You know what I mean? Like, I have friends that have been nominated for Emmys and they're like, yeah, if you don't knock on doors and give everybody a fruit basket, you're not going to fucking win. You know what I mean? Like, people want to be bought, but. But it does at least make me feel good that it is not the same people for decades. This is how senators should be. They should get three years. I'll see you later.

[Matt Koplik]

Let's get some new Rules, senators, Supreme Court, Congress, like, all of it. Just like this shouldn't be a lifetime job. The only thing that should be a lifetime job is good person and mommy.

[Casey Balsham]

Eh.

[Matt Koplik]

I think some women are allowed to quit that job if they so choose. Joan Crawford could have been allowed to quit the role of mommy.

[Casey Balsham]

Joan Crawford. Yeah. Deserved to be like, you know what? Not for me. But yeah, I guess. I guess the big swings would be channel with would be Scott Rudin stuff. I hear Giant is definitely. I hear Giant is one of the best plays of this season. Lithgow will most. Lithgow, I think probably also is like, people love to give Lithgow stuff. They love to nominate the stars. They love. They love a Lithgow.

[Matt Koplik]

Just give John Lithgow.

[Casey Balsham]

So they do, though. They love Lithgow. They'll give him a thing. Lithgow in lethal for 2026.

[Matt Koplik]

I actually think Giant not winning play will push people to vote for Lithgow, and then people won't necessarily feel compelled to vote for Lane because they're going to vote for salesman for revival, probably Mantello for director and Laurie for featured. You know?

[Casey Balsham]

Yeah. People love Lithgow.

[Matt Koplik]

Well, I don't always love what he says in the press, but as an actor, he's incredible.

[Casey Balsham]

That's what I'm. They love. They love an acting Lithgow.

[Matt Koplik]

They, they. They really do.

[Casey Balsham]

But here's another person who seriously can't miss is Kara Young. Again, we'll probably. And she is on a fantastic run.

[Matt Koplik]

She really is. If she gets five. If she gets five years in a row, I think that's the record of most nominations back to back.

[Casey Balsham]

I mean, pick him, girl.

[Matt Koplik]

She's. She knows what to do. Featured actress in a play is so jam packed with, like, amazing contenders.

[Casey Balsham]

Sure.

[Matt Koplik]

That you wonder who's like, are people gonna nominate based off of like, yes, they're great, but this person's equally great. And I liked their show more.

[Casey Balsham]

Okay, that's fair.

[Matt Koplik]

But if you're like, no, Cynthia Nixon's getting in. It's between Carrie Young and Jessica Hecht. And I'm like, it's fucking Carrie Young. I'm sorry. I love Hecht, but yeah, yeah, I'm a Hecht head. But I want to say Carrie Young shirt.

[Casey Balsham]

That's another shirt.

[Matt Koplik]

Hecht head.

[Casey Balsham]

Stay young. Kara Young. Hecht head.

[Matt Koplik]

I want to be forever Carrie Young.

[Casey Balsham]

I want to be forever Carrie Young. We're doing this.

[Matt Koplik]

Casey, this has been amazing. I know. You got to go.

[Casey Balsham]

Yes.

[Matt Koplik]

Final big swing. You want to go out on for all the kids to know. Like, final thing you want to put out into the world.

[Casey Balsham]

It pains me to say this, but I don't think Titanic is going to get anything.

[Matt Koplik]

No. No wins or no nominations.

[Casey Balsham]

No wins.

[Matt Koplik]

Yeah, I agree with that.

[Casey Balsham]

I think that it'll get a few nominations, but I think that in a. In a. I'm so glad that they transferred to Broadway, but I think in a season like we have, I'm not sure that they're doing. I'm not sure that that's where it's going.

[Matt Koplik]

I would probably agree with that, but

[Casey Balsham]

I think she'll get nominated for sure.

[Matt Koplik]

Yeah. IC musical book her.

[Casey Balsham]

Yes.

[Matt Koplik]

Fingers crossed for Leighton Williams is the iceberg bitch.

[Casey Balsham]

Yes. I also heard that Leighton Williams is the star.

[Matt Koplik]

Yeah. I'm going to ask you to put your mommy magic into the air. So people nominate Leighton Williams. Let's make it happen. Thank you so much, Casey. You go off and enjoy your life.

[Casey Balsham]

Okay, Bye. I'll text you and we'll figure out when you come in. Okay, Bye.

[Matt Koplik]

Bye. Okay, thank you very much, kc. Next up, we have friend of the pod, Zaddy of the pod, Juan Ramirez. Many of you will know Juan for his writing as the chief theater critic for theaterly. He also has written articles for Vanity Fair and for the New York Times. I believe he even wrote for the Guardian recently. Juan's a really wonderful theater critic. We don't always agree on stuff, but when we do agree, we agree in perfect unison. He and I have been on theater all the moving parts together, Patrick Pacheco's lovely talk show for CUNY tv. And Juan has also been on this podcast. He did an episode on Carousel, and he did an episode on Streetcar Named Desire. So if you know Juan, you know he's not afraid to go there. And if you're watching this on YouTube, you can rest assured. Juan asked me what he should wear, and I said something with a deep V. Show off the girls. And he did. So let's hear from Juan. Oh. Oh, my letter from heaven. Hi, Juan.

[Connor McDowell]

Welcome back. Hi, Matt. It's been a minute.

[Matt Koplik]

You've seen everything, right?

[Connor McDowell]

This season I've seen everything. Which I think the past two seasons, there was one or two things I skipped just because life was too short to engage with whatever left on 10th was.

[Matt Koplik]

But this one, I don't appreciate. That hate crime you just said to

[Connor McDowell]

me, if your key art is not respectful to my eyes, then I won't give you the two hours you ask of me, you know, but so having

[Matt Koplik]

seen everything this season you have a lot of opinions, I'm sure, on candidates for nominations this year that I'm sure you're very passionate about. But what's happening immediately, they come into mind for you.

[Connor McDowell]

Look, I'm not on Go Derby. I know only what the bickering queens on Broadway world talk. And I sort of make a point to get to the theater one minute before curtain, so I don't talk to anyone.

[Matt Koplik]

Good move.

[Connor McDowell]

I mean, I have written down some notes here. The one thing I was trying to decide is because for the past few weeks, if not months, my sort of line has been, oh, my God, Queen Jean is going to win two Tonys. But now, doing a little bit of research for this, those two Tonys being costumes for Cats, Jellicoe Ball, which I think has got to be a lock. Like, I don't, you know, I don't want.

[Matt Koplik]

What else would win.

[Connor McDowell]

It's. Let me quick scan. It's like I think Schmickadoon is the only thing. And, you know, I think we can all agree those costumes are really lovely, but it's like, you know, money plus designs that we've seen since the 50s. There's Christian Cowen, who I love it, but it's more like he did. It's more like gowns, you know, Ms. Kristen's gowns by Christian Cowan. Ms. Kristen's gowns by Christian Cowan. The rest secretly by, you know who. For Queen of Iberton. Yeah.

[Matt Koplik]

Yeah.

[Connor McDowell]

And then, I mean, I don't know, like, I like, you know, Lost Boys was a great looking production, I don't think again. And Queen Jean, not only are they great, they were great off Broadway. And these leveled up incredibly. The other thing, though, I would have said that she was a lock for her work on Liberation, but then she was not nominated for the Drama Desk. And I thought maybe this is a thing of, you know, maybe the. She was nominated for the Drama Desk last year when.

[Matt Koplik]

Last season.

[Connor McDowell]

Excuse me, when it was off Broadway. But it was ignored then, too, which I find odd.

[Matt Koplik]

I think I would still kind of put Liberation as the front runner for costumes in a play.

[Connor McDowell]

So the two Broadway shows. Cause as you said, most of them are actually off Broadway. But the two Broadway shows nominated for costume play Drama Desk are the Ballisters, which, you know, Anika looks lovely. Um, and then Joe Turner, which I think is the only. Is the only upset I can imagine for Queen Jean for his work on Joe Turner's Come and Gone. I didn't love the look of that production. Costumes included.

[Matt Koplik]

Neither Did I? I feel like you and I are the few brave souls willing to say, like, love the play, don't love the production it's in.

[Connor McDowell]

Yeah, I mean, Paul Tazewell, like, look, he is great. He's so talented, him. And the set design, though, you know, maybe my fault for not knowing that this was like the 1910s play in the Pittsburgh cycle. But it took me a minute to really figure out when we were, because the background looks obviously these people know more than I do. So if that's what the Tens in Pittsburgh look like, totally. It looked a bit too industrial, like too far along industry to me. And the costumes looked also a bit too modern. I don't like the sort of sexy dark trench coat they give Joshua Boonen. I thought, you know, like, oh, okay, like the Equalizer walked in or something.

[Matt Koplik]

Yeah, I feel like with my, my issue with Joe Turner is I think nominations are going to happen because it's a period piece and it's, and, and that's catnip for nominators. But yeah, I just, I, I did not find a cohesion with this production look included. That for me will keep it from winning anything. If Valstar gets in for costumes, that'd be awesome. I, I, I've been shouting for a while now that nominators need to take more contemporary designs seriously because it's just as difficult and just as mindful as any period show. But yeah, I feel like costumes, we're looking at liberation. We're looking at Joe Turner. We're looking at Fallen Angels.

[Connor McDowell]

No, I mean, and that's the thing. And that's sort of the same in the same lane as Schmigadoon in the way that I think better. They look gorgeous. You know, I mean, anytime I have too many martinis in a robe, it's like, that is what I want to be looking like. Like, the fabrics are just draped on these two women. They look so fucking gorgeous. But it's something that if you tell the AI in my mind to spit out, you know, a million dollars, Kelli o' Hara was burned, period. That's what would come out with Liberation. Sort of. I agree with what you're saying about how they need to reward more contemporary. The thing I think Queen Jean's designs in that show do so well is that it does feel contemporary. You know, it's 70s period costumes and you're definitely in the 70s, but it's not, you know, they're not all walking in, like, with an afro and like, give peace a chance shirt. You know what I mean, I describe

[Matt Koplik]

it as in Liberation, they're not wearing costumes, they're wearing clothes. And that's the difference.

[Connor McDowell]

Totally, totally.

[Matt Koplik]

And I mean, if we were to do the schmigadoon version of Liberation, you would want them in this 70s costumes. Because the whole point is that it's camped up. But no, like, as you said, it's meant to be lived in. It's meant to be more grounded and realistic. And so, yeah, it feels like genuine clothes that people would wear, which is just as impressive. And it is, technically speaking, a period piece. So that is something for people to grab onto. But it's not flashy in the way of a Fallen Angels for sure.

[Connor McDowell]

Either way, I think it'll be Queen Jean's first denominations. And she's been someone like. Cause, you know, I mean, for listeners who don't know me, I'm a critic, I'm a journalist. And it's just one of those names that. Well, her name is very, you know, stands out, but it's one of those things that you feel. You feel yourself typing over and over again and then eventually you're like, damn, who is this person whose name I've been typing in every glowing review I've typed for the past however long? Yeah, they're such a great person. Like a true, honest, you know, walk the walk activist. And they're up for two others this season for Saturday Church and oh Happy Day, which I would have loved to have a longer life after the public, but still loved them. Joe Turner. I kind of only see them getting Max two nominations. As we were talking about off pod earlier, featured actors in a play is an insane category this year. You're sort of going up against the entire cast of Liberation, except for Susanna Flood. But the actress who plays Harold Loomis wife who comes in in the Arsenal last second, Abigail Onwon Ali. She. I mean, talk about a. Like, she walks into that play and suddenly it all makes sense. Knows exactly what she's doing, knows exactly what she needs to do, what her character functions as in that play. Still, it's like the last 10 minutes of a production that I feel is otherwise gonna be a little bit left out. So I don't see it for her.

[Matt Koplik]

But Joe Turner is a situation where I have to put aside my feelings on it with what maybe other people feel. And I wonder if enough people are enjoying that production enough to give it a revival. No. And maybe costume set and Ruben, maybe.

[Connor McDowell]

But here's the thing. I mean, I don't know David Gallo, I think who did the scenic design. He was an actual longtime collaborator of August Wilson's, which I think makes for a nice narrative. The set, despite what I just said about it looking a little too industrial, is fine. However, not that this is his fault, but I do think it, you know, registers in people's minds, even though this is a Debbie Allen problem. Unfortunately, I was about to pull out my wallet and start throwing singles at the stage like a drag club to be like, please get the fuck out of this kitchen. You have an entire set. You have an entire set, and everyone is just talking to each other from across this kitchen. Stage left, there's like, God, just put someone in that couch over there. I don't know, put someone outside. Like, please do something. It was so boring. And also my main thought when I think of that place, lighting is the end of act one, which, again, unfortunately for Debbie, like, it's supposed to be this mystical moment where the characters are supposed to be unconsciously enacting what Joshua Boone's character is talking about. This, like, sort of like out of body experience he had. And they're just sort of standing at the lip of the stage rotating like rotisserie chickens, like, in this very corny lighting. I don't know. It's. Again, it's not Stacy Droser's, the lighting designer's. But that is what I think about when I think of lighting in this production.

[Matt Koplik]

I mean, we have a. There's a running joke on the discord of what's going to be the 2024 Sweeney Todd winning sound design situation. We were like, she, like, not only did she get nominated, but she won, where there's always, like, that thing where we all know that nomination sucks, but it got in there. And so with Joe Turner, like, yeah, I. As you know, I said, like, we don't like the design of this production. We are not a big fan of the production itself. There are some solid performances. The play itself is good. But I also just like, I. I just. I know that there are people who look at that and they go, well, it's a set. And they're more likely to vote to nominate that than, like, Bug, which has this great reveal. But they'll just go, well, it's a hotel room. I'm like, yeah, but what it does is really impressive or, like, then even, like, the Oedipus set, or, sorry, the Oedipus set. I think that's a really phenomenal set. So we have to remember it's always called Oedipus Juan.

[Connor McDowell]

They do the Title song. I'm a loyal listener. I'm a loyal listener.

[Matt Koplik]

Juan listens, everybody.

[Connor McDowell]

Yeah, God, Bug, you know, I was looking at my. My little, you know, extremely detailed Tony sheet that I have here, Bug. God, I would love for it to sweep, even though I. I sweep nominations, even though it won't. But, like, the sound of that was spectacular. The set was great. Kind of the only. Sorry. Kind of the only lock, really, I have is, like, honestly, none. I think they're all. They could all be sixth place in everything, which is so unfortunate.

[Matt Koplik]

Even Carrie, you think

[Connor McDowell]

because of recency? Sure, because, fuck, I don't know. Maybe someone's watching Hacks right now and is like, Jean smart, you know, like. Oh, God, I think. Because, I mean, best actors, we have five. Susannah Flood Locke, Leslie Manville Locke. I think both Fallen Angels ladies Rose Byron and Kelly o' Hara. Locke, IO from Proof could get in. Like, she didn't get the reviews that. I'll say this. My review was not replicated across the board, so she might get in there. Anika, we love her. She was good in this. Tessa Thompson, like, brand name. I don't think she, like, deserves it, necessarily, but that's not her fault. Lori could do a two. You know what I mean? I think Carrie is kind of sixth place here. Could be the sixth place.

[Matt Koplik]

That's interesting, because my thing with Lori, I feel like Lori and Carrie sort of are fighting for that slot, especially because with Ru, I don't see how you nominate one without the other, and so they just kind of take that spot. Especially since I'm not entirely convinced Fallen Angels will get in for revival. If it does, I think it's at the expense of Joe Turner, which I'm not mad about. I think ultimately, I think Joe Turner's the better play. I think Fallen Angels is the more successful revival. And it's one of those things where there's just such a. There's such a duo that I don't see how you separate. But with Laurie, Laurie could get in under the guise of Little Bear Ridge Road getting nominated for play.

[Connor McDowell]

We shall see. Let me see. What else do I have? Okay, I have two. And then my other two sort of hot takes that I wrote down. I'm trying to think of which one I should start with. There's one that I think is not going to happen, but will be amazing. And then there's one I think will happen. So you tell me, what do you want?

[Matt Koplik]

First you say one without telling me which one it is, and I'm going to Try and guess. Okay.

[Connor McDowell]

Becky Shaw wins best revival.

[Matt Koplik]

I think that's the one you don't think will happen, but you want to try to make it happen.

[Connor McDowell]

Yeah. Correct. I'm not an actor, everyone. I love his production of Salesman so much, I somehow wound up interviewing both Nathan Lane and Laurie Metcalfe about it. And, you know, like, not that that experience could already get richer, but talking to them about it and just, like, the process behind getting this thing up, bumpy as it was, but in a sense, Becky Shaw is a goddamn Pulitzer finalist that I don't think many of us had ever heard of. I mean, look, it's at Second Stage. It's a small production, sort of a quote, unquote, small show. So to call it, like, a historic revival feels crazy. But I do think that after this, this play will be performed more.

[Matt Koplik]

Oh, yeah.

[Connor McDowell]

Granted, I don't know if this. I don't know if this is, like, the, you know, regional hit of the season in 2010, but I think in terms of the biggest happy surprise of this entire theater season was this play that, you know, the poster is like, lipstick with, like, a bomb on it or something, and I'm like, what the fuck is this gonna be about? And then it was just so good. And finally the Tony would go to Gina Gianofredo, the author. Whereas, like, do we need to heap another Tony onto dead Arthur Miller?

[Matt Koplik]

Yeah. And Salesman's already won revival three times, so.

[Connor McDowell]

Sure.

[Matt Koplik]

Which, I mean, I think that's more sort of a testament to how good this revival is that it seems like such a lock now to win that. And that's really a testament to Joe Mantello, who I do. I think he's winning. No matter what happens with Becky Shaw or Salesman. I think Mantello is winning director. I have.

[Connor McDowell]

I mean, I have Joe, Laurie, and Nathan winning that, you know, poof. There you go. Go fucking see this right now. I don't know. Again, I don't. It's not. I can't even bring myself to say, I hope Becky Shaw wins over Salesman. This production is damn near flawless. But, yeah, I was just so surprised. I think she needs the recognition for

[Matt Koplik]

this play, but with that passion. You are saying, though, that it's a lock for a nomination for sure?

[Connor McDowell]

Oh, yeah. For revival, I have Oedipus Bug, Becky Shaw, Death of a Salesman, and Fallen Angels.

[Matt Koplik]

Interesting. No, Marjorie Prime.

[Connor McDowell]

I loved that production. It had no afterlife, I guess. You know what I mean? And I mean, again, it's like a second stage thing. They have to throw Their weight on one thing. They don't have the funds that we're about to get walloped, for example, by Death of a Salesman or a Giant or something. Yeah.

[Matt Koplik]

If my podcast can do one thing. I hope nominators remember. Oh yes. Marjorie prime was really beautiful. That's my hope.

[Connor McDowell]

Stunning.

[Matt Koplik]

Yeah. Just beautiful work. And reminding us all that Cynthia Nixon is a phenomenal actress because TV is making her do the stupidest shit.

[Connor McDowell]

And then my final thing take, which I think could literally happen is Giant goes home empty handed. Win wise, win.

[Matt Koplik]

Especially if you think Nathan's winning actor, then yeah, I think, I think Giant's biggest chance right now is, is let's go. And if he loses, then yeah, I think they could go home empty handed. I would. My big thing with Giants, I really just want to make sure Aya Cash gets recognized. I think she's fantastic in that show. I know it's difficult. Featured actress is really hard. I'm setting myself for her heartbreak. But I just, I'm hoping I would like it.

[Connor McDowell]

Jai was this play that when it was in London, people were coming back and being like, holy shit, this is going to come sweep and it's going to be like the event of the season and it's not, not, you know, it's certainly, I think selling well and

[Matt Koplik]

you know, selling quite well. Yeah.

[Connor McDowell]

Mostly positively reviewed, but it wasn't, it wasn't the bomb I was expecting or you know, like the bomb is in, you know, the, the explosion explode the way it is.

[Matt Koplik]

Yeah, exactly. And it happens a lot, I feel like. Yeah.

[Connor McDowell]

And I think, I mean, I find it very hard to believe anything takes liberation. That's. To play that like so many people who saw it, love it so, so, so, so, so dearly. I mean, not that, you know, we've, we've sort of debunked the myth of like the touring whatever, blah. I don't think the British is necessarily like a touring thing, but it's something that like every play, every theater could put on and just like have so much fun. Yeah.

[Matt Koplik]

The touring narrative needs to be fucking put to rest already because it's just, it's not true. Yeah, it was true for one year which was the Avenue Q year. And ultimately I think what it, what the touring vote does because it, it. There's also the misconception that it's the largest voting body in the Tony voters. It's not, it's like 10% maybe. Yeah, it's not that much. What it is is that it can be the deciding factor if it's down to, like, the wire between two, which is ultimately, I think, what is what happened with Avenue Q and Wicked, that, like, it was a matter of a dozen or so votes. And those Tony Road voters were the ones that went with Avenue Q. Yeah.

[Connor McDowell]

And do you think Tempest could win featured Actress?

[Matt Koplik]

Yeah, I mean, I think anyone could technically win that category. It's such a weird year.

[Connor McDowell]

Right. And I'm. I'm sort of loathe to. Well, I'm not gonna retract that. I'm not gonna say I'm loathe to give it to her to a. To, like, a one song performance, which is also not what this is. No. But I'm looking at it now, and it's, you know, I mean, Nina White for Versailles. She was great. She's not getting in now, either. Titanique, rather like Melissa or Deborah Cox. If they get in, I don't think it's them from schmiga dune. Anna McKenzie, I think have a slight edge over Isabel McCalla, which is a

[Matt Koplik]

shame, because I want Izzy. But I think. I think mackenzie's getting in.

[Connor McDowell]

If any of them get in. I also don't see them doing it. Shoshana, Lost Boys. It could be like a We love you. She's. She sounds amazing in it. She's always great. But it is kind of like the mom role in, like, a show that's not about the mom. Hannah Cruz and Chess, Fantastic voice. Don't really see that happening. Rocky Horror, like, Rachel Dratch could also be a sort of, like, legacy, whatever. But any of these people. And then, of course, Temperance and then, like, whoever. Emma, Sophia or anybody else.

[Matt Koplik]

And Nichelle as well, for Ragtime.

[Connor McDowell]

Oh, right. Do you see that happening? I feel like everyone's sort of very politely being like, well, it's not Audra, but she's very, you know, like, yeah,

[Matt Koplik]

I think Michelle's getting in partly because the Shield is so weak. I don't. I honestly don't see her winning because it is sort of every conversation I've had with people. And when I say people, I actually mean people who vote and people and a few people who've nominated it.

[Sam Ekman]

Is what.

[Connor McDowell]

When I say people, I mean people. Not you. Subhuman redditors.

[Matt Koplik]

You know, I'm very open about. We can't take social media at face value when it comes to buzz. You have to look at. It's one of the things I pride myself with this podcast is I do talk about without giving away who I'm. Who I'm speaking about. New York is a very specific hub and everything that matters with Tony's happens here. You have to be in the rooms talking to people, hearing what they have to say. So who do you.

[Connor McDowell]

Who do you. I mean, could this be. Wait, remind me. Are there there. No. There's no runoffs, right? It was the tie. Yeah. They're like. There's not like these two people came so close. Special, urgent, you know, emergency election, the way that.

[Matt Koplik]

Yeah. So there has. There has to be like an actual tie. Ties have actually have happened. Yeah. Yeah. Do you think this could be it?

[Connor McDowell]

Since no one is the clear front runner. Do like it could.

[Matt Koplik]

It could absolutely happen. Or it could be the. Like Mackenzie or Anna or Tempuris win by like 10 votes. Yeah.

[Connor McDowell]

Or like, it's like to me, it's like Anna vs Shoshana vs Rachel are sort of we love you from your body of work.

[Matt Koplik]

Yeah. I think should.

[Connor McDowell]

If Mackenzie and Isabelle beat each other, Nichelle maybe front runner hand.

[Matt Koplik]

There are so many butterfly effects with this category because ultimately what it comes down to is how voters feel about Schmigadoon or Lost Boys. Because if Schmigadoon ends up being like the surprise winner, like if it wins book, if it wins musical, I can see Anna or Mackenzie winning. I think Mackenzie has the stronger first act, but Anna gets like the last really big song and that can affect people. But I think Tempress is sort of in the same narrative as I'm feeling as Nichelle of everyone being like, I wish you were like 10% better than I would vote for her. And with Tempress, it's ultimately the voice. Everyone wants her to sing Memory a little bit better than what they're singing.

[Connor McDowell]

And both roles have winning precedent, right?

[Matt Koplik]

Yes, Because Betty won for this and Audra won. The thing about Sarah that I feel like this production highlights is she's not on stage a lot and outside of daddy's Son doesn't have that much to do because Wheels of a Dream is much more. More Coal House's song than it is a duet. And it's made abundantly clear when you're watching Josh do it. And once she dies, she doesn't really have this lingering presence throughout Act 2.

[Connor McDowell]

Do you think voters maybe won't give it to Nichelle because she buried that baby so deep in that yard? Something to think about. Something to think about.

[Matt Koplik]

I mean, maybe they have an easier time distancing themselves from that because Ragtime set is so non existent. They're not even thinking about how deep that Ground is. Sure.

[Connor McDowell]

But the one time something happens, it's like, you know, 30 minutes of Cassie Levy doing, you know, gardening, and all of a sudden it's like, what's this baby doing six feet under the ground?

[Casey Balsham]

Well, she need.

[Matt Koplik]

That also could just be Casey trying to give herself some busy work because she's like, there's nothing else on stage for me to do. There's. I have nothing else to hold on to. I gotta find this baby for eight measures. Let's get into featured actor for a second, because I think you and I both have the same desire for a certain man with curly hair.

[Connor McDowell]

A man, by the way.

[Matt Koplik]

Yeah, I thought.

[Connor McDowell]

I thought Elliot Levy and Giant was actually really good. I think he, like. There's not that much hype around that performance. That's not the thing. There's not that much hype around anything. That's not the play itself or Lithgow, who has also unfortunately, done a string of unfortunately, extremely transphobic interviews. Yeah, so we'll see about that. But, yeah, I didn't see, because didn't one of the women win the Olivier?

[Matt Koplik]

The actress who plays Aya Cash's role, I believe, was nominated. I don't know if she won. And Aya took over for her in London, and Elliot did win.

[Connor McDowell]

Okay.

[Matt Koplik]

So, yeah, I mean, that's the thing is, as I said in a separate segment with Casey Balsham, like, there are certain categories where there's just, like, every candidate has its support system, but no one's like, the majority, if that makes sense. I feel like the only things that they currently feel is, like, a majority consensus is liberation for play. Joe Mantello for director of a play. And, like, I don't know. That's kind of it. I feel like Jellal has the majority, but maybe I'm in my own little bubble with that. I don't know.

[Connor McDowell]

No, I would agree with that.

[Matt Koplik]

Yeah.

[Connor McDowell]

Yeah. For featured actor, I have Ellie Levy and Giant. I have my pick. Alden Ehrenreich and Becky Shaw. Christopher Abbott for Salesman. I think there's a chance Ben Ehlers also gets in there. I have Ruben Santiago Hudson from Joe's Turner, who was incredible, as always. And then my sort of freak pick that I would really love to see happen is Brandon Jerdan in Waiting for Godot.

[Matt Koplik]

Yeah, he's the only performance in that production I liked. My hot take is, I think Ruben's the only acting nomination that Joe Turner gets. Unless Joe Turner doesn't get in for revival, in which case all bets are off. But, yeah, I think that the two most stacked categories actually are featured actor and featured actress in a play. And there's a world in which so many things could happen that I would love, that I would be upset about. I ultimately think that Chris Alden and. Who was the other one?

[Connor McDowell]

I said Elliot.

[Matt Koplik]

Elliot. Yeah. I think those are the three Lockes. And then everyone else is just sort of fighting for those last two. In the same way that I think Nathan Lane, Mark Strong, and John Lithgow are Locke's in lead actor. I think Daniel Radcliffe is nearly a Locke. I thought he was a Locke. And then other people kept telling me I was wrong. So now I'm putting like 85% on Radcliffe for the fourth slot. And then that fifth slot, I feel like is up for grabs for most people.

[Connor McDowell]

I also have. I have Lithgow, Mark. Oh, no, I'm just kidding. I currently have Lithgow, Mark Strong, Daniel and Nathan. Although Mark Strong has been. I mean, as you've mentioned in the past few episodes, like the sort of preceding awards don't always mean too much. But I feel like he's been completely left out of the conversation.

[Sam Ekman]

Yeah.

[Connor McDowell]

Which is strange.

[Matt Koplik]

I think that's where marketing takes an effect. First of all, I always tell people, please do not take the drama league seriously. They put out good food for that event, but it is absolutely a pay to play organization. And watch me then be up for a drama league in 20 years and they're gonna be like, we remember what you said on the podcast.

[Connor McDowell]

Right, Right.

[Matt Koplik]

But Leslie Manville, and this isn't her, but like, there's been so much press about her, both while the show was running, about her final monologue. Now she's doing Leila's in London. And then the viral clip of her talking about why can't people live in the moment during the curtain call? So she's on top of mind in a way that Mark isn't. So when it comes down to a drama desk where it's a combined category of male and female actors, 10 tops. And it's also Broadway and off Broadway, certain people are gonna get 10 tops. 10 tops. Sounds like a night at Wan's house. I do think Mark is getting in. I think it's one of those things where just due to the sheer logistics of numbers and including off Broadway, certain people who are Lockes for Tonys just keep getting left out.

[Connor McDowell]

Yeah. Yeah. Well, I mean, this is funny. I have Mark literally as a lock, which means Namir, Smallwood, not happening. Keanu and Alex. I don't Think happening. James Corden could. Like, is that even qual. Perhaps. Not happening. Micah Stock. Not happening. Will Harrison. I mean, I kind of detested that entire fucking play and production. But he was good, I think. No, I'm sorry. I'm being mean to this man. He was very good in his.

[Matt Koplik]

Like the one. He did a good job the one

[Connor McDowell]

time that play stopped and let someone act for 10 seconds.

[Matt Koplik]

Yeah. Are you referring to the scene in Act 2 where they're all sitting together and kind of.

[Connor McDowell]

Yes. The moment we all came to watch.

[Matt Koplik]

Yeah. That's the scene where I'm like, oh, a play is happening. My plea to James Graham is to just write screenplays from now on and not write stage play.

[Connor McDowell]

Totally. Or like these fucking theatrical Nike commercials that are just like, boom, boom, boom, you know, I really like Jon Bernthal. I think that's kind of an impossible task and role. That play is kind of completely misguided. But I liked him more than Adrien Brody.

[Matt Koplik]

Dog Day Afternoon for me is a almost near miss. And the fact that I find him and Hecht to be the only standouts is major. A major compliment to their talents. I don't. I still think it's Will Harrison, but Bernthal is in the show that's currently running. But the stank on this Dog Day is sucked right now with everyone that. That. I think that goes against him. Oh, so can we talk about featured actor in a musical for a second

[Connor McDowell]

Actor in a musical? Totally. Okay. I think the biggest narrative is Leighton Williams.

[Matt Koplik]

Right.

[Connor McDowell]

And I love him.

[Matt Koplik]

Right.

[Connor McDowell]

Cause he, like, he. When I saw everybody talking about Jamie, a musical that I still cannot believe has been staged in this fucking country for some reason. He was Jamie, and he was sensational. He was the voice of the now defunct British dating show I Kissed a Boy. He was the narrator randomly, and he's fucking amazing as this. And he was just nominated for a Chito Rivera Award. I think he got the Desk or the League or whatever.

[Matt Koplik]

Yeah, he got nominated for Drama Desk. Might have even gotten nominated for the Outer Critics Circle. I might be making that up, but I think he did.

[Connor McDowell]

He's phenomenal. There's my. My secret boyfriend, Ali. Louise Borski in the Lost Boys.

[Matt Koplik]

I think he's getting in.

[Connor McDowell]

I kind of have him winning. Because what's weird is that Ben Levi Ross is such an industry darling, and yet I feel like I've heard nothing going for him in Ragtime this season.

[Matt Koplik]

Yeah, Rack. The other thing about that with Ragtime is, again, I think Casey and Josh have such A strong hold on their categories right now. Kasey, Less so than Josh. I do see a world in which Casey could get upset, but at the moment, I don't see that happening. It's so rare that a musical wins minimum three acting Tonys. It happens very rarely. And while Ragtime is definitely very loved by a lot of people, it's not this kind of thing where everyone's like, well, it's.

[Sam Ekman]

It's just gotta.

[Matt Koplik]

It's gotta sweep the acting awards. Not when there are other options. Sort of like right by every side that everyone's kind of side eyeing. Like, I think Ali is a major contender in that category.

[Connor McDowell]

You know what I think would be so interesting? Sidney Harcourt, which has been sort of floated as a possibility for Umtum Tucker. You know what I just found out? He is 50 years old.

[Matt Koplik]

Ain't it great?

[Connor McDowell]

That is psycho. Ain't it great as like a hopeful sort of like, yeah, we should all look like that when we're 50 years old.

[Matt Koplik]

I fully intend to find out what he's been doing, because Andy Cohen, apparently,

[Connor McDowell]

he's on every podcast talking about it.

[Matt Koplik]

Is that worse or better than listening to Andy Cohen doing Andy Cohen?

[Connor McDowell]

These are apparently. Yeah, whatever. Everyone go look at this podcast. I can't believe this is the thing that I saw.

[Matt Koplik]

No, I think Andre is getting in. I think that Sidney and Junior labeija are both sort of floating around as options. People seem to be really enjoying Max Clayton and Schmigadoon. I think he's perfectly lovely in the show, but I think the women are the ones who really walk away with that show. He was great.

[Connor McDowell]

I mean, for you, you must have been over the moon. He had the carousel number, but

[Matt Koplik]

he

[Connor McDowell]

did that and then kind of just like fucked all the way off for Act 2. I mean, that show is a disaster, I think, but say that a little bit louder, Ron, please. I think it's a disaster.

[Matt Koplik]

Okay.

[Connor McDowell]

And if it wins best musical, it's like, we really are fucked. But

[Matt Koplik]

anyway, this is a ghastly gear one. Okay, look, all you have to do is look at.

[Connor]

Isn't it.

[Connor McDowell]

Is it musical wise? Musical wise, I think musical wise.

[Matt Koplik]

Yeah. No, the play. The one. The last three seasons have been about the plays for me. This season with the musicals, it's a gas leak year already. Next season's looking better, so I'm hopeful, especially on the revival front. Next year, I'm like, oh, we'll be dining out.

[Connor McDowell]

Oh. I was gonna say, when Salea Pfeiffer wins, she's not Winning against anyway.

[Matt Koplik]

But no, I think Max has a shot. I just think the women are funnier in that show than almost all of the men.

[Connor McDowell]

Yeah. But there is the world. There is the chance that Schmiga Doom just gets this massive wave of nominations and everyone gets in.

[Matt Koplik]

Right? Yeah, that could. I think. I think Spingletoon and Lost Boys both have that chance of being like, whoa, way more than we ever expected. Same thing. Because Lost Boys has that outsiders element of it's young, it's hip, it's fresh, and it's gonna overperform people's expectations. Even though it has problems.

[Connor McDowell]

You know, I am rooting for a Alli Louis Sporzki nomination and win. I honestly, like, there are so. There's such few times that I feel confident in saying someone was robbed. I think he was robbed of a nomination for the who's Tommy Again, a production no one but me likes. But I think he's such a fucking star. It's unbelievable.

[Matt Koplik]

Yeah, no, he's great.

[Connor McDowell]

And another thing, bring back a baritone to this damn city. Like, you know what I mean?

[Matt Koplik]

I love those thick folds. He's also wearing a tank top in Lost Boys, so, I mean, it's underneath a giant trench coat, but it's there.

[Connor McDowell]

Yeah. No, it's so funny. My boyfriend has been hearing me, like, talk about this man for years, since the who's Tommy? And he Ali spoke, and he was like, that can't be his real voice. And I was like, no, it is. Get ready.

[Matt Koplik]

He's what the kids call a man.

[Connor McDowell]

I know. Even though he's like, 24 or something. It's crazy.

[Matt Koplik]

Max Clayton is two years younger than me, and I'm calling him Daddy. Like, it's.

[Connor McDowell]

I don't know. But, yeah, if not him, I don't know. I'm kind of against Andre getting it for Cats because that would be such a, like, legacy.

[Matt Koplik]

It would be a legacy. I'm not against Andre winning, but I. Whereas I thought Andre was a lock to win about a month and a half ago. I just now think he's a lock for a nomination. Okay, last hot take. Where do you see leading actress, new musical going now that we have Stephanie Hsu in the mix?

[Connor McDowell]

I mean, talk about gas leak. Casey.

[Matt Koplik]

Casey to win.

[Connor McDowell]

Oh, sure.

[Matt Koplik]

Casey. I didn't know if that was. That's what you say.

[Connor McDowell]

No, no, I have her for the win. Yeah. I'm not. You could sense my excitement about that. But nominations. Kristen, I think, honestly, could get in Christiani Pitts for Two Strangers. Marla Tartanique, Casey Ragtime, and Leah Chess. Here's my disclaimer. I hate Ragtime the show so much. This production sells it very well. Even better than at Encores, where I was seething in hatred at that show. But Casey's great. The thing, it's such. It's such the hypotheticals. What's going to happen, what didn't happen. Game. Right. Because, like, I saw her next to normal in London. Phenomenal. However, if we do the thing of waiting for next year and then it's versus Rachel, who, you know, that's not a sure bet either. But, like, I don't know. And she was amazing in Hair.

[Matt Koplik]

Right. But,

[Connor]

yeah, give it to her.

[Connor McDowell]

I just don't think it's such a.

[Dylan]

Already.

[Connor McDowell]

I think that musical gives no one enough time to really do anything worth a damn. And in this production, even less. But, yeah, and even as much as I love Leah and I love her in this show mostly vocally, and she also is sort of like the face of it, you know, she's like a producer. She's like, it's her show. I still think, you know, I mean, talk about if I can't complain about Ragtime being basically concert staging and then say, Leah should get it for Jess. I quite liked Kristin Chenoweth in Queen of Versailles. You know, the nomination would certainly be the win. I think just so politically speaking, two strangers I can't fault. You know what? Cristiani Pitts carries the brunt of that show, which is letting that little British boy be like, yo, yo, yo, and be like, microaggressing all over her the entire fucking production. There's like, Schmiga do and there's Sarah Chase, whom I regularly love. But the way that people are complaining about Kelly Barrett having to do her Beaches bows in her hospital gown is the way I think about Sarah Chase in the advertising for the show in her, like, little Lululemon fit Stephanie Hsu. Just on name alone, I guess.

[Matt Koplik]

Yeah. I think Marla and Casey are my only real lockes. I thought Christiani was a lock, but similar to how you were saying about Mark Strong. I know that I keep saying this. Drama desks, outer critics circle don't really matter, it's just a matter. But it is something of like, every time somebody doesn't get nominated for those awards, it's their name one last time in the press. And so it's just sort of out of sight, out of mind. Yeah, I. I have this. I just have this weird feeling when Shu was put in lead because I Thought she was a lock and featured. And now that she's in lead, I just had this gut reaction was like, oh, well, now either, you know, Vosk or Leah get kicked out and she's gonna get in, but I don't know what. I have no reason to think that one. That was just my, my gut saying that I'm probably wrong.

[Connor McDowell]

I don't think Leah's getting kicked out because I don't even know if Chess is getting in

[Matt Koplik]

for revival.

[Connor McDowell]

For revival?

[Matt Koplik]

Yeah, I don't think so. I think the best they can hope for is Nick, Leah, and maybe Hannah all getting it. But I think we're looking at. I don't think we're looking at three out of three. I think we're looking at realistically, one out of three. Optimistically, two out of three.

[Connor McDowell]

Yeah, yeah, I do. I mean, you mentioned. I mean, like, we can't really relitigate Versailles again, you know, however long after the fact that was my favorite of these four scores.

[Matt Koplik]

I mean, my thing about Versailles, I think that most of those songs have an idea in there that is legitimate. And then I think half of the score is pretty successful and half of it blows. But I don't like any of the songs in Schmegadoon. I like most of the lyrics in Two Strangers. I don't care for the music. I also think that show would work better as an 80 minute movie with no songs. So that's what I have to say. And the Lost Boys, you know, I like that score.

[Connor McDowell]

I like that score. I think it works. Nothing took me out of it. Nothing was bad. It's all in service of this, like, massive, massive, massive production that I really, really, really enjoyed.

[Matt Koplik]

Yeah, I like the earnestness of it. I. I give it for everyone who talks about the F. Marie Abraham song in Queen of Versailles. I'm like, okay, I will, I will meet you there and match you with the gay comic book song in act two of Lost Boys.

[Connor McDowell]

Sure, yeah, sure.

[Matt Koplik]

Two very gay songs in different ways.

[Connor McDowell]

Yeah, yeah, yeah. I can't believe Smuggler Zuna was allowed to be nominated or eligible, but whatever.

[Matt Koplik]

Juan, we gotta wrap things up for you. But last, last thing you want to say for people about Tony's coming up, like any. If you could speak to nominators right now and say, hey, hey, hey. This may not be top of mind, but please consider.

[Connor McDowell]

Oh, wow. Please give Queen Jean 2 Tonys. Let's do it. Is that, Is that the hardest I'm like going this year? No, you know what? Alden. Alden. I think it's kind of a lock for him to win, but, like, he's so good, guys. And we have societally wasted this man for, like, 10 plus years, even though he has consistently been the best thing in the. Everything he's been in, which has also usually been at least pretty good. But ever since he, you know, moseyed on into my life as Hobie Doyle in O Caesar. Hail Caesar. Oh, Caesar. Now that I would see. Oh, Mary Hill, Caesar and oh, Mary, Hail Caesar. Mashup of some sort. Anyway, Alden Erak. He is so good. He's such a movie star. He's so funny and sexy. He was funny. He's funny, I think is the main thing from this production. I was like, oh, wait, you're a really fucking funny stage presence. Yeah. Yeah, Please, everyone, let's give him. Let's give him that.

[Matt Koplik]

I love it. Yeah, let's Alden, everybody remember it and know it and commit to it. Let's do it. We can make it happen.

[Sam Ekman]

Yeah, of course.

[Matt Koplik]

And I'm gonna put back in Leighton Williams. Just. Guys, come on. You know, you wanna.

[Connor McDowell]

Yeah, exactly.

[Matt Koplik]

I know you're in your mind. You're going. But what about Jim Parsons? I'm saying, you know in your heart which one you want to pick. Do the right thing.

[Connor McDowell]

Sure.

[Matt Koplik]

Do the correct thing. Okay. Well, Juan, thank you so much for joining us today.

[Connor McDowell]

I really appreciate it as always, Matt. I will see you soon.

[Matt Koplik]

See you soon. Okay, thank you very much, Juan. Next up, we have friend of the pod, awards expert friend of the pod, Sam Ekman. Many of you will remember Sam on Gold Derby. He's one of the leading theater experts for the Tony Awards on Gold Derby. He's also been on this podcast quite a few times. He was on, literally, like, less than a month ago to talk about sort of how things have shifted with the Tony Awards, with the opening of certain shows and as other shows have been in previews. So I would love for us to check in with Sam now that has opened, now that all the eligibility rulings have been made into place, and also now that Sam and I have seen everything, what we're feeling, what he's feeling, and a little bit what I'm feeling about the Tony Awards race now. So take it away, Sam. Oh. Oh, my letter from heaven. Sam, baby, welcome back. Long time no see.

[Sam Ekman]

Oh, thank you, Matt. Good to be here again.

[Matt Koplik]

You've been as busy, if not busier than I in terms of, like, running around and seeing everything this April yet.

[Sam Ekman]

Yeah. Sleep is, you know, spare time. Is hard to find in the last two weeks of April, but we're finished now. I saw the Lost Boys and I'm finished now.

[Matt Koplik]

So I say sleep and free time is for the 1%, not for us. That said, with all this intel, I wanted to kind of get your opinion on sort of where you think things are shaping up for this upcoming Tuesday morning. Anything in particular that has shifted in your mind and then just like a gut feeling that maybe there's no rhyme or reason, but you just kind of feel it.

[Sam Ekman]

Yeah, a few things. I feel like with the last round of Tony eligibility that they released, since then, there's kind of been like a little bit of murmur and swell for Schmigadoon. I think in the end of the season, I think best musical still feels like such a toss up in a way, because we kind of all put two strangers tentatively as the frontrunner at the beginning of the season. And it's kind of like, like each of the four, because we know what four are going to be nominated. Musicals have positives in their corner and then, you know, negatives in their corner for why they could or couldn't win. And for Schmigadoon, I think a lot of it had to do with, like, well, this score and the story originated from the TV show. And they don't like to award pre existing scores and jukebox musicals, which it's not really jukebox musical, but they have deemed Cinco Paul's eligible for the best original score category. And so that was, like, one thing, I think, holding it back is that before we thought it couldn't get nominated there. And now I feel like the nominators will be like, oh, God, another musical to tick off. Thank you. So I feel like he is going to get a best score nomination, which makes their path to best musical win much more viable. I think there's still the aspect of, like, well, it still wasn't all created for the stage and it's a limited run that's not gonna be around. So if I give it my best musical vote, is that really gonna help its financials? Because I do think people are cognizant that best musical is the one that can help the box office and all the shows need it. But, you know, whether Schmigadoon wins best musical or not, it's gonna be gone in several months. So I think there's still an edge for Two Strangers and the Lost Boys because people know the financial help that they can give that boost at the box office with the award. But There is definitely a little bit of a swell and more conversation around Schmigadoon right now.

[Matt Koplik]

Do you think there's a world in which the producers announced sometime this month that Schmigadoon's going to extend and maybe pull an operation mincemeat of periods of extensions?

[Sam Ekman]

I mean, I don't have any insider knowledge on that, but I would not be surprised. I'm sure they were having conversations right now about can we do that or not? Because I think that the perception that it's going to close. I don't know. The last time we've had, like, a limited run of a musical win best musical. And I do feel like people are very aware that they can help the box office with that category, so saying, yeah, we're gonna be here. We're sticking around for a bit. Titanique just announced this morning, actually, that they're extending a bit further. And I'm sure that's also a strategy for them to say, you know, we're not gonna leave so. So soon. I do think that would be a benefit for Schmegadoon to try some sort of extension to get their foot in the door there.

[Matt Koplik]

I was thinking for a second, I wonder when Lincoln center announced that Contact was gonna be an open run, if that was when they came to Broadway or if it was during Tony season. Cause, you know, it was a transfer from the Mitzi Newhouse to the Beaumont. And usually Lincoln center theater does these. Like, it's running for three months. It's extending, it's extending. And occasionally they've done the like, eh, we're just not gonna close it. We'll close it when we close it. And that was like Contact in South Pacific and King and I. And I just. I wonder because if they announced it during Tony season. I mean, something for Schmigadoon to look at. If they want to look at history to help them win.

[Sam Ekman]

Yeah. I would not be surprised if once nominations come out, they then, like, piggyback off of that with a celebratory. And they loved us so much. We're extending announcement, which would kind of help give them equal footing to the Two Strangers and Lost Boys, which I still think are slightly out front of it just because of that reason. But I think think if they were to extend, then that could put them on equal playing field. So again, we'd have all these musicals where no one is really pulling far ahead like they do with so many years.

[Matt Koplik]

Exactly. What would you say the energy right now is on Lost Boys? Because it is sort of the last wild card of the season.

[Sam Ekman]

You know, it's really interesting because there's certain. And I try not to read too much into some of the other wards because, like, Lost Boys was left out of the top categories at the drama desk. They really just went all in for off Broadway. But it is important to note, like with some of those other awards bodies, the drama desk, I think their nominating committee is usually like seven or eight people. And those people do see like literally every single piece of New York theater. So it's hard to find more people than that who can commit to that kind of schedule because they are in the theater every day. Yeah. But because it is such a small group versus I think there's been a few Tony nominators who have recused themselves. So we're probably down. It was 60 or probably like 55 or something. 57. When you have a smaller pool of nominators, those individualistic tastes really can rise to the top. And you can have. It only takes, you know, two, three people to really like one show and suddenly that's like a leader in nominations or kicks out something that's really popular. But I do still think it's interesting that the Lost Boys didn't place there. And I think there's a split. I was really impressed by the Lost Boys. I thought it's like, especially in a year that is lacking big swings for the top musicals, it is an extravaganza. There are millions of dollars on stage and you can see those millions of dollars.

[Matt Koplik]

Absolutely.

[Sam Ekman]

I think there's a split between. Some voters will really appreciate this, like, grand operatic scale of the Lost Boys and that will tick their boxes. And I think there will be other people who think, well, it's based on a movie and they view, you know, spectacle like that, the design elements as like, great, but that's more of a, like, gimmicky thing. And I want a more down home, simplistic style of storytelling which like two strangers would give them.

[Connor McDowell]

Yeah.

[Matt Koplik]

I feel like since Gentleman's Guide there has been more of a trend with the best musical winner of on the smaller side, with the exception of maybe just Hamilton, which of course is the outlier because it's, you know, the Pulitzer juggernaut that was the Zeitgeist show for sure. Exactly. But even shows that are extremely popular with box office, like Dear Evan Hansen is ultimately an intimate, like seven person musical. Fun Home Gentleman's Guide Band's Visit Kimberly Akimbo Strange Loop. So that's. In a lot of ways, I wonder if that works for or against Lost Boys, it's this big, bold grand swing. And that's so different from the trend of the last 10 years. If some voters are like, yeah, I'm ready to vote for something new this time, or enough people are like, no, no, no, no. I like the small, quirky show. So we'll see. We'll see. What's your gut telling you about some bold things this year, Samuel?

[Sam Ekman]

Oh, God, let me look at what I'm doing here. There's. My gut is telling me I'm gonna just be wrong no matter what I do. In featured actress of a play. If you look at who has been nominated at, like, outer Critics circle, Drama desk, Drama League, no one has scored in all of them except for Laurie Metcalf. I think she's the only person who is safe. And there's like 10 to 12 other women who have a legitimate shot at that category. So if you wind up one of those women with a nomination there this year, know that you made it in the hardest race. I just cannot decide on what to do. So I'm ready to be. And I feel like I don't want to wish this into existence, but our dear Marjorie prime cast members keep missing all over the place. They got an ensemble nomination at the drama desk.

[Matt Koplik]

I think they got a special citation for ensemble there, maybe. Yeah. Which I appreciate. It's a bit of a cop out where the drama desks are, like, there were simply so many people and we remember you fondly. Here's a special citation. I'm like, no, you cowards. You give Cynthia Nixon her special nomination. But no, I feel you. I do wonder. I do wonder. I feel like anybody who gets featured actress, if you get three out of five on Tuesday, in your predictions, you're. You're golden. And if you get five out of five, then you absolutely saw the nominees

[Sam Ekman]

before you were the person who tallied up the nominations and how dare you?

[Matt Koplik]

Exactly. In a way, I understand why people are predicting Jessica Hecht for Dog Day Afternoon, because whenever you count out Jessica Hecht, that's when she gets in. She, like, she just finds a way. But I don't know. With so many contenders, it's hard for me to make a giant case for her in this plot.

[Sam Ekman]

Yeah. I have a similar thought about Jessica Hecht and Kara Young, which is they are both really beloved figures. There's some people in the industry who are just, like, really well liked because they are both incredible actors and extremely talented, but also just very kind people who everyone loves talking to and getting to know. And I think both of those women occupy that space, and they're not doing anything wrong or bad in these shows. But I just feel like Dog Day Afternoon and Proof are not going to be really dominant Tony players. I think Dog Day Afternoon will get in for Set and maybe one other design category.

[Matt Koplik]

Yeah, Proof.

[Sam Ekman]

I don't know. Now that Schmiga Doon is eligible for score, I'm not predicting Proof and Score anymore so that, like, could get ignored elsewhere because it's just been a really strong year for play revivals. And so that one was just like, yes, this is good, but I don't feel as strongly about it as the other ones. And so I'm going back and forth between, like, will people's overall sentiment for their production win out and they get in because they're Jessica Hecht and Carrie gone, or will they be like, I wasn't really that huge of a fan of those shows overall. And in featured actress, there's still June Squibb and Cynthia Nixon and Linda Eamond and Mary Louise Burke and all these people who would be so deserving in shows that have a much stronger reception and stronger buzz going on.

[Matt Koplik]

Yeah, that's hard to figure out, I feel. Yeah. What are some categories other than best musical, where you feel very confident in your predictions down the line?

[Sam Ekman]

I do think looking at another featured one, featured actor in a play seems complicated, but I feel confident about it now. I feel like it's whittled down to seven people. So I have Christopher Abbott, Ruben Santiago Hudson, Alden Ehrenreich, Elliot Levy, and Danny Burstein. And it's really like, I'm worried, like, Like, Richard Thomas could break in for the Ballisters. He's also, you know, very strong in that show. And then I think Joe Turner's could get Joshua Boone in as well as a second nomination, but it's really down to, like, those seven people. I would be shocked if it was anyone else other than them. So I feel pretty good about that. Unless the Tony nominators really want to give me a hard morning and just snub Marjorie prime across the board and remove Jamie Burstein. But I feel pretty confident.

[Matt Koplik]

I feel like in a lot of ways with performances, you have to kind of work backwards from what are the shows that are going to get,

[Sam Ekman]

what

[Matt Koplik]

shows are going to be thought of highly in their actual production. So for me, with featured actor and actress, I start with, okay, what do I think is getting in for revival and play? And then who do I think is the most Likely in these categories from those productions to get in. And so for featured actress, I think, obviously, Laurie, I think Betsy item for Liberation. And then after that, while it is sort of like a. Who can tell? Part of me is like, yeah, maybe Mary Lewisburg for the Ballisters, maybe Aya Cash for Giant, and then June Squibb for Marjorie prime, which, like, yes, that leaves out Cynthia Nixon, which I hate. But, like, that's still a solid lineup. That leaves out Carrie Young, which I hate, but, like, swap out Carrie Young for one of them. It's still a solid lineup.

[Sam Ekman]

I do think in terms of the eventual. Eventual win, Ruben Santiago Hudson has emerged as, like, a major threat to win the category. He has a lot of goodwill. I mean, he's like the August Wilson whisperer. And it would make sense for him to win a Tony for this. For an August Wilson play. So I think. And he's wonderful in the show, so I think it probably. It could come down to him and Christopher Abbott. But ultimate win.

[Matt Koplik]

I mean, Ruben also has yet to win a Tony, which is important to remember. And that role has won a Tony in the past. The first production, I don't think the Originator won, but he was nominated. And then Roger Robinson, I think, was the actor who won for the Bartcher production. So it's like of all the roles in the show, that kind of is the role. He also gets the final line, the one that's printed on all the T shirts at the theater. So, you know, he's Ruben Santiago Hudson is Joe Turner's come and gone, as far as I'm aware. I'm trying to think of any other categories that have kind of been flipped on its head. We have Andrew Durand and Stephanie Hsu now eligible for lead, which switches things up a little bit there. Yeah. Anika Noni Rose eligible in lead, which could switch things up in Leading Actress. I still feel pretty confident about my original predictions, but I do think if anyone's gonna fuck things up, it would be Anika in the Ballisters. A. Because I just think the Ballisters is going to be not necessarily, like, a formidable opponent to Liberation, but I think it's going to be a strong presence as a new play in the nominations. There could be a supportive Anika getting in. We like her. This is the first time she's been in a Broadway show since COVID where we're like, yes, this is a good use of you. As opposed to Uncle Vanya, where everyone was just sort of like, well, I'm here, here.

[Sam Ekman]

We're on stage. Well, you know, you're talking about things that I'm really confident in, but in terms of things that I maybe not am confident in, I've just noticed alarming things that like people we thought were safe perhaps that are strangely not with lead actors where Anika is suddenly eligible there. Carrie Coon has been missing a lot of nominations going into this, which is very strange. I think people really thought she was a lock there. But she and Bug has not been showing up in revival of a play that has been getting shut out in a lot of these early awards. Same thing with people we thought were Lockes. Like Mark Strong has bizarrely not been showing up for Oedipus. And even I think the drama desk didn't include Giant in best play. It's really just been of John Lithgow focus moment. I don't think even Elliot or Aya have gotten nominations at the three that have been announced so far. So that's just. It's interesting to see which people are kind of rising up to the top and consistently being remembered. Even though it's not overlapped with Tony Nominators, it's still like there are people who are consistently being named and others who I would have thought were shoe ins who are not.

[Matt Koplik]

Yeah, I feel you. I have been also kind of surprised that Mark Strong hasn't popped up more. I wonder. But I also think about lead actor in a play and I'm like, I don't know who would get in over him in that spot.

[Sam Ekman]

Yeah, I have him in third place right now in my predictions. I still think he's in. It could just be a quirk of the nominating process and those other award shows, some of which have Broadway competing with Off Broadway. The Drama League is always weird because they just have that one big acting category. So there's quirks. It's not an apples to apples comparison for sure. It seems like Leslie Manville has been the real focus for Oedipus, which I think maybe if people who are thinking Mark Strong could win in the fall, that seems less and less likely. And it seems like a Nathan Lane John Lithgow showdown.

[Matt Koplik]

Yeah, I think that's fair. And I think actually by Mark Strong not being a major contender to win like a nominee, but not a contender to win, I actually do think that helps Leslie Manville's case to win because it's a way to honor Oedipus, which probably won't win revival now with it being up against Salesman similar to the Oscar this past year. I think we're gonna see a lot of shows with a lot of nominations, and then the actual wins will be pretty spread out.

[Sam Ekman]

Yeah, I agree.

[Matt Koplik]

Yeah. I mean, I guess, sort of top of your head. If you. Where do you see. What. What shows do you see coming out with, like, double digits or almost cracking double digits when it comes to nominations next Tuesday?

[Sam Ekman]

Oh, I think even though it's not eligible for the. You know, the writing stuff, which takes out two categories, I do think Cats, the Jellicle Ball will be up for quite a lot because it's gonna have revival director, choreographer, costumes, for sure. It could naba. It probably will be up for, like, lighting and orchestrations. It's eligible for and at least one acting nomination, but probably two or three. So that will definitely get a lot in. And I think Death of a Salesman will have quite a lot. I feel like the revivals are going to dominate, ultimately. I feel like Cats, Death of a Salesman, Ragtime will probably be the nomination leaders, if I had to guess. And I think Lost Boys could, too, because it's going to get in all the design categories. And I think the aerial work could also land them in choreography. So those are probably the ones I'm looking at to be the leaders of the pack.

[Matt Koplik]

I think that's fair. Sam, I know you gotta head out soon, so I just want to ask you, before you head off of here, if there's one thing you would really fight for the nominators to think about to consider before they put in their ballots. If they're listening to this and you're like, hey, please don't forget about this. Is there a specific show or specific performance or whatever that you would like them to remember?

[Sam Ekman]

Oh, boy. I really just need Marjorie prime to not be snubbed because I suddenly feel like it's on the bubble in every single category it's eligible for. And I don't know how that happened. I guess because it's a winter show. But I stand by the fact that it had some of the most exquisite acting, like June Squibs Cynthia Nixon. I feel like I've never seen her better in anything, which is insane, because she's Cynthia freaking Nixon. Danny Burstein was amazing. Even Christopher Lowell, who has the smallest role, like that single tear that comes down his cheek at the end of the show where the holograms are discussing memories, is beautiful. It was just a perfectly accurate. So I'm really holding out hope that I have it in fifth place for revival of a play. And I hope that holds. And I hope at least One of the actors is able to get in, but a lot of them should get in.

[Casey Balsham]

Yeah.

[Matt Koplik]

It's a wonderful company. And you're not just saying this because we have you on record on Instagram saying that it wasn't getting in for best score. Right.

[Sam Ekman]

Okay, well, I was not trying to be bitchy with my thoughts there, Matthew. It was just a. How much of that score can you hum these many months later?

[Matt Koplik]

That clip is more showing how I am an idiot because I was just being like, come on, guys, let's get it in anywhere we can. Which is also how I live my life. But the. Yes, that clip more shows you being pragmatic and realistic and me being like, maybe, possibly, but especially now that Schmincka Doom is eligible. It's like, I think we're getting one play in their.

[Sam Ekman]

Yeah, I think it'll be Death of a Salesman will probably be the only play in score, But I think that. And I would also love to see. I know the Cats, the Jellicoe Ball. The acting conversation has focused a lot on Andre De Shields, and I think he's safe. But there's so many people in that cast who are like, I feel like the faces of this Broadway season almost. And so Temperance Chastity Moore. I think I would love to get in. Even someone like Emma Sophia. Skimbleshanks, the Railway Cat. Come on, you cannot ask for a better fucking show than Skimbleshanks The Railway Cat as an MTA subway conductor. She's killing it.

[Matt Koplik]

I was about to say. I'm like, be brave, guys. Nominate Emma Sophia.

[Sam Ekman]

Be brave, Emma Sophia.

[Matt Koplik]

You know you want to do it. Just do it.

[Sam Ekman]

I feel like they should. Skimbleshanks should be the Tony performance. She's so great.

[Matt Koplik]

Mother Sucker.

[Sam Ekman]

She's so great.

[Matt Koplik]

It's so good. It's so good. Jesus Christ. Yeah. I'm like. Part of me was wondering what they're going to do for the Tonys, especially since they did the opening slash Jellicoe ball on Good Morning America. But now it's, yeah, have me Skimbleshanks.

[Sam Ekman]

I think it should be Sydney James Harcourt, who could also be a nominee. Junior labeija would be a fun nominee. I think the Tonys should be really brave. They should open with Skimbleshanks, give Emma Sophia her moment, and then we get Rum Tub Tugger in em his jockstrap G string dancing on the Tonys and that.

[Matt Koplik]

It all cuts out, and Junior labeija does the last verse of Gus the Theater Cat to bum everyone out.

[Sam Ekman]

It's like End of the opulence.

[Matt Koplik]

Opulence. I love that. I love that.

[Sam Ekman]

And the straights are confused. And Pink says good night, everyone. Thanks for coming. And that's just what we leave everyone with.

[Matt Koplik]

Yes. I think that's another Tony category that doesn't exist yet. That I'll do is show them most confused, the Straits, and that's Jellicoe Ball, that's Titanique. Kind of Lost Boys if you think about it.

[Sam Ekman]

We had at intermission, my husband went up at Cats to go to the bathroom or something and there was this woman, this like, you know, probably 70 year old something woman going, ugh, well, this is definitely going to go for three hours, the way they're carrying on. I was like, one, you're so straight. Two, are you allergic to joy? I'm so sorry for you. Just like, I'm so sorry for you. I'm sorry. This is why we need Sidney James Harcourt in his G string on the Tonys.

[Matt Koplik]

It's true. People need to see what true joy is. Absolutely. I love that. But just don't look directly into the sun, everyone. You can't go blind. Sam, this has been lovely. I'm gonna let you get on with the rest of your day. Thank you so much for joining us today. I appreciate it.

[Sam Ekman]

Thank you, Matt.

[Matt Koplik]

Thank you, Sam. And last but not least, a couple of friends of the pod and I was most recently on their podcast Drama with Connor and Dylan, two of our favorite ginger twins. They are the sweetest, they're the sassiest, we love them very much. And it's. Their time on the podcast is long overdue. And this is just a little nibble of what you can expect from them when they come back on in Earnest together on the podcast. They don't know that they're coming back on together, but I'm telling them now via this recorded segment. But yeah, let's listen to Connor and Dylan for a little bit, talk about sort of where their feelings are at with the Tony season. And, you know, if you haven't yet, by all means, please listen to their podcast drama on iHeartRadio or wherever you listen to podcasts. And yeah, that's it. Take it away, twins. Oh. Oh, my letter from heaven.

[Dylan]

Wait, do we need to record I never?

[Matt Koplik]

No, this is Riverside. It's recording. All right. Of us. Jesus Christ. I'm going to keep all of this. Dylan, Connor, welcome back. Drama.

[Dylan]

Drama, thank you so much for having us back to talk about something we are obviously so, so informed on, which is like, which twunk will Be nominated for best featured actor in a musical.

[Matt Koplik]

Well, yeah, that. I feel like you guys have secret meetings about this and. And discuss. Right? Or not to secret. We record it on your podcast. That's what you do. That is what.

[Connor]

When drama was born in, like, 20.

[Connor McDowell]

18.

[Connor]

19. We officially launched in 2019. It was born out of the. A train rides back from the theater district up to Harlem, where we were debating who was gonna be nominated for best featured actress that season. And we were like. Like, every white gay in the world, we should be recording right now. Like, we should have a podcast.

[Matt Koplik]

That's literally how this was born too. Every. Every white gay man in this world just stood there and said, I think the world should be hearing what I'm saying right now. I know. Don't. I have a feeling it's iconic, and I need confirmation.

[Connor]

All gay men are casting directors and critics. Cake and experts.

[Matt Koplik]

Gay men in theater are either casting directors or podcasters. There's no in between.

[Connor]

Or co pros.

[Dylan]

But we won't go there. Wait, not today. We can't. We can't go there.

[Matt Koplik]

No. Wannabe Instagram influencers are now co pros. That's what it is.

[Dylan]

That is the pipe.

[Matt Koplik]

Yeah. It's not just. Let's not. Let's not be misogynistic or heterophobic. It's not just gay men. It's everybody.

[Sam Ekman]

True.

[Dylan]

Wait, now, I'm so excited that you invited us on to talk pre nominations, because this is literally my favorite time. I feel like once noms come out, things get a little too serious. But now it's so fun. You can throw all the pasta at

[Matt Koplik]

the wall that you want.

[Connor]

Listen, I always say that Tony nominations morning is the most bittersweet day because all the fun is done, in my opinion. It's like all of the possibilities out. People walk away disappointed that morning. Your fave doesn't get nominated. Me every year. And then you kind of just have to predict what's kind of been the inevitable all season long. I don't know.

[Matt Koplik]

Yeah, I. I think that the reason why the Chonies themselves are always a little underwhelming is that it tends to be the. As you said, like the ones that we were all kind of saying originally we're gonna win. And then we spend a month putting ourselves into a tizzy of like, well, what if it's this? And then it. It was Agatha all along is basically how awards tend to go with, like, one or two caveats. But usually it's like the. Yep, it's Agatha. But this year, I think is gonna be interesting. I don't know. I feel like there aren't that many frontrunners. And especially in something like best musical, like every show has its camp of supporters and a narrative for what could get it there. And so, I don't know. I think it's interesting and especially because there are so many categories in terms of nominations that are up in the air. I would love to hear you guys sort of talk to me about where you're feeling passionate about and maybe sort of like what you're hearing in the airwaves.

[Connor]

Yeah.

[Dylan]

Oh, my God, I'm so excited. Dylan, do you wanna start or do you want me too?

[Connor]

Yeah, I'll start. I have been leading the Two Strangers campaign since I discovered the cast album. And if I would have been told upon hearing this on New York, on Spotify for the first time that it would be like the frontrunner in score and musical and at least a nomination forward show, I would have probably laughed because it wasn't a huge critical darling, at least when it came to awards across the pond. And so I am like, I'm sticking to my guns with Two Strangers. I think that it's gonna win best Musical. I think it's gonna get a lot of nominations. And I think that Sam Tutty could upset. It'll depend how, if they really, really vigorously campaign that month. But I truthfully don't think that they will. So it's still gonna be Joshua all along. If we're going with the Agatha all along reference there.

[Matt Koplik]

Yeah. I do find that everyone's looking for the possible upset for Josh, and the fact that no one can agree who the upset might be is where I'm like, so it's Josh's winning probably and would deserve.

[Casey Balsham]

Yeah.

[Matt Koplik]

I mean, listen, I think Sam would be a wonderful winner. Josh would be a wonderful winner. Those are sort of my two at the front. Connor, what about you? Where are you feeling these days in terms of best musical or anything?

[Connor McDowell]

I don't know.

[Matt Koplik]

Give me. Give me a category that you want to fucking go to the mat on.

[Connor]

Okay.

[Dylan]

I think the featured actor and featured actress in a musical categories are the most exciting because this is such a random year. I really am, like, seeing these other awards bodies vote, you know, outer critics and Drama League, Drama desk, all this stuff. And we're seeing some people that are nominated for all. But other than Andre De Shields and Ben Levi Ross, I feel like for a featured actor in a musical, who knows what's really gonna happen there? By the way, I Would love for both of them to get nominated. But I have a scintillating hot take about one of the nominees who I think will be a first time nominee but for two different possible award wins here. Constantine Rossouli will be nominated for best featured actor in a musical and for best book for Ty Tinny. And I think both are happening. He is so fucking funny in that show. He's picked up attention for both, both of those potential categories throughout and he's out there. They are pushing him 100%. Like, I think it's happening and I would be so happy about it if you had told me when I was 13, like looking at pictures of, oh, who's in Hairspray right now? Who's in Wicked? This little gay boy being like, who's this hot Greek dude with huge tits and a giant ass and a megawatt smile? I never would have thought he would be a nominee. He's also a friend. Lol.

[Matt Koplik]

I was gonna say that's also on his business card. Constantine Rasooli, huge tits, fat ass. It just goes to show that if

[Dylan]

you're hot and talented, you can get nominated for awards. So Connie's gonna pull through. I really believe it.

[Matt Koplik]

Amazing.

[Dylan]

He's so nice. He's the nicest man.

[Matt Koplik]

Well, question then. If you think Constantine's getting in, is that at the loss of Elayton Williams nomination?

[Dylan]

I think it is at the loss of a Layton, which breaks my heart because. Because totally steals the scene, by the way. But I think that they're going to nominate Jim Parsons over Leighton. And I don't think three people will

[Matt Koplik]

get in for Titanique. And that's the thing is I was talking about this in my review of Titanique. I originally thought that Jim was going to get in, not because I thought Jim was giving the best of the featured actor performances. I think he's fine. He's actually kind of my weakest in the show. No one in this cast is bad. Yeah, no one in cast is bad. Let's put that up front. But he was my weakest. It's just like Ruth is such an awesome role and you just have to not shit the bed to like kind of walk away with it. And I've seen roofs off Broadway shit the bed. So, like, it does. It's not a guarantee. But Jim doesn't do that. So credit's where it's due. But I was surprised, like, Jim hadn't really popped up anywhere so far and Leighton actually kind of had. And we talk about this all the time in the Podcast, drama desks and Outer Critics circle and Drama League don't overlap with the nominators of the Tonys. So it's not the same as the precursors for the Oscars, but when you do get nominated, it can help your narrative. Your name is in the. It's really exciting. So for Leighton, I was like, oh, that's really fun. But, yeah, like, Constantine, you're right. He is everywhere. He was at my performance of Lost Boys, and I was like, oh, love, look at you scoping out the competition.

[Dylan]

I mean, I'm telling you, in the great tradition of, like, Lin Manuel, Shaina Taub, Harvey Fierstein, Kola Scola of being acting and book or something, you know what I mean? Score, whatever it might be.

[Matt Koplik]

Well, Shayna didn't get nominated for performing in Sefs, so. True. True. Yeah. Would Constantine then be the Shayna of this? And is Marla the Lyn?

[Dylan]

Oh, my God. Marla definitely is getting in.

[Connor McDowell]

Yeah.

[Casey Balsham]

Yeah.

[Dylan]

That's not a big hot take, I don't think.

[Matt Koplik]

Right. Well, so can I. Speaking of Marla, then can I ask you guys. I'm also not trying to undermine you, Connor. I'm trying. I want to make sure we've thought of every single corner of the room before we leave.

[Connor]

I hear you.

[Dylan]

I know. I'm with you. I'm with you.

[Matt Koplik]

But, gentlemen, speaking of actress in a musical, we have since found out that Stephanie Hsu is eligible in Leading Actress. And I. I wonder if this changes anything for us or if we think it's all staying the same in terms of our nominees.

[Connor]

I don't think it changes anything at all. I don't think she was even gonna get in and featured. I think it just helps bolster the number of nominees for lead actor. And then they had to kind of put her there, too.

[Matt Koplik]

I didn't know you hated Stephanie Shue so much, Dylan.

[Connor McDowell]

Love her.

[Matt Koplik]

Love her.

[Connor]

She's been doing quiet, good work since Be More chill.

[Dylan]

Quietly nominated for an Oscar, but, yeah, quietly. I thought she was one of the weaker Rocky Horror performances.

[Matt Koplik]

Fascinating. Okay, who were. Who were your standouts in Rocky Horror, Luke?

[Dylan]

Andrew Durant, Amber Gray?

[Matt Koplik]

You just loved seeing Andrew Durant get his ass eaten, Connor. That's what you. That's what you appreciated. No, you saw that. And you. You. You saw that and you went, finally, a story I can relate to.

[Connor]

Okay, I love Rachel Dratch, but I have to say, and this is probably one of my hot takes, is that I do think that the Rocky Horror revival was a bit of a Underwhelming, missed opportunity. In many ways, I had an amazing time. I can't wait to see it again. I hope that it runs and they do ingenious creative recasting as Sam Pinkleton has done with Omar. But I found the tone to be really shifting around. And I am like a. I'm like a die hard Rocky Horror person. And I just didn't think. I don't think that Sam Pinkleton had a strong grasp on the material. Like, in many ways, you're not alone there.

[Matt Koplik]

A lot of people felt that way. It's why I. Before Rocky started performances, I thought that Sam could be kind of a spoiler director nominee and could kick out someone who we thought might have been more of a lock, like Alear or Chris Catelli. But I think that while Rocky Horror is not unsuccessful, it's not 100% successful. I do think that now that Stephanie is put in lead, that actually gives a stronger case for someone like Rachel Dratch to get into features. Because I do think she handles. I think she keeps that show together in a way that a lot of us appreciate. She handles the most of the heckling. I think she does a really good job with it.

[Connor]

Listen, I have to say my favorite featured performance was Rachel Dratch, but I'm feeling like a post mortem obsession with Juliette Lewis performance in Rocky.

[Matt Koplik]

I can't really.

[Connor]

I looked at Connor afterwards and I said, what were they thinking? And then the more that I've thought about it, I feel that it's like a fascinating, almost like melodramatic campy. Especially the ending, like the note that they leave us on. Something was happening there. And maybe if Pinkleton would have leaned into more of that tone, we would have seen more shades of what Rocky Horror is. You know, in pockets around the country where we watch it every single year.

[Matt Koplik]

I feel like I'm watching Patty Hearst get Stockholm syndrome in real time. Watching you try to justify Juliette Lewis,

[Connor]

did you not watch her enunciate and really give it her all, All?

[Matt Koplik]

Oh, she was giving it her all. She was committed. I just think she. I just thought she was out of her element. Like, Juliette Lewis is a talented woman. Bitch is nominated for an Oscar. Like, I just. I. I don't think that this was her show. I personally would have liked, much as I love to see Andrew Durand get that salad tossed. I personally would have liked to see Durand play Riff Raff and Amber play Magenta slash Usherette. That's what I would have liked.

[Dylan]

Matt, this is what I Love about you. You are thinking so inside the box because you're like, no, no, these pieces work. Let's just rear a little bit.

[Matt Koplik]

That's smart. This is why I need to be hired as a dramaturg for every Broadway show. If I were on all of these shows radars, they would all be getting tens out of tens. They would get a double critics pick. Not just the lone critics pick. Like, it would be.

[Dylan]

Wait, now I do need to talk about another standout Rocky performance. Then we need to move on to Dylan's. Dylan came in with a big take. Josh Rivera as Rocky was a sexual awakening for me that I was not expecting. I couldn't stop staring at his butt in those, like, white, white singlet he was wearing. It was like. I was like, did he bleach? Did he get it? You know, like, naired? Was it sugared? Like, something's not happening down there that I'm so curious about and can't stop looking at. So I need to obviously see the show again and again to figure that out.

[Matt Koplik]

There's some TV show or movie where, like, someone's trying on a sexy lingerie bit or whatever, and it's, like, all just, like, strings and ropes. I can't remember what it is. It's some woman. And what I need to figure out what movie or TV show this was because as I was watching Josh Rivera's costume, that's all I could think about was, like, that movie with that. Wait, so did you picture.

[Connor]

I can picture exactly what you're talking about. I have to say shout out to Josh Rivera, because every production I've ever seen of Rocky, except for one time, they cast a hot guy who can't sing. And in this case, he actually sang those songs.

[Sam Ekman]

And I was like, oh, my God,

[Connor]

this is melodic and really fun. Okay, my hot take is Rocky Horror adjacent. And maybe this is because I'm, like, a little bit cooler on the revival than others, but it is that Chess is going to overperform on nomination morning, and it is going to get a revival nomination and four acting nominations.

[Sam Ekman]

Four.

[Connor]

You have your hot take today, Matt.

[Matt Koplik]

Take, girl. I'm sweating. Tell me the four.

[Connor]

Well, without a doubt, it's Nicholas Christopher and Lea Michele. The other two slots are interchangeable. I think Andrew Duran's chances or, like, being in the lead category gave Aaron a bump so he could end up in there. And I think that, like, you know, Brandon Uranowitz, if they're not. You said it yourself on your recent episode. They might not go crazy with all The Ragtime acting nominations. So maybe Uranowitz.

[Sam Ekman]

What'd you say?

[Matt Koplik]

I said, Dylan listens, everybody. She's a fan.

[Connor]

And maybe they'll be like, okay, you know, Aaron, like, we can't nominate all. Like, you know, we can't nominate two and not the other. And you all know I'm an Aaron, Stan. Okay. And then the other two are possibly Hannah Cruz and Bryce Pinkham as the arbiter. I think he has a shot.

[Matt Koplik]

There are a couple people in the Discord who would agree with you on that. If Bryce Pinkham gets in for featured actor, then it opens up a Pandora's box of Does Chess get a book nomination? Because the cause Bryce would be nominated for selling that book. And I love Bryce, but I've been very open that I think all of the material that Danny Strong has written for him I think blows. But Bryce is such a charismatic performer and an amazing singer. It's like him doing the Arbiter number was almost made up for the RFK jokes and shit.

[Connor]

But who are the other book nominees?

[Matt Koplik]

Schmigadoon, Two Strangers, Titanique, Lost Boys, and then Beaches and Queen of Versailles and Chess. So it's seven. So there's four nominees. I think ultimately we're looking at Schmigadoon, Titanique, Two Strangers and Lost Boys, with Schmigadoon most likely the front runner there. I don't know if I agree with that, being the frontrunner, but that's just sort of where the wind is blowing. I feel I would love it if Hannah Cruise got in. She was, for me, the MVP of that show. And I know that she's a friend of your pod, so hope she learns this.

[Dylan]

No, she was amazing. Like, totally. I went to see Chess in previews and then I just saw it again two weeks ago. And it's funny when you see it with that much time between and how your opinion on it changes, like, in the middle, and then you might see it again and it changes completely again. But Hannah is like my mvp. But I think Aaron is giving such a strong performance, and that character arc is so much more interesting to me than Anatoly's. So Nicholas is obviously being nominated for his amazing performance, but in terms of, like, the journey the character goes through, it's so boring to me. I really don't care. Does he care about his children? He never mentions them. Like, he is truly so.

[Matt Koplik]

But I relate to that. Who cares about the children?

[Connor]

They say kill your darlings.

[Matt Koplik]

Right. I will say I am sort of mixed on Eren in General. But in Chess, I was actually pleasantly surprised by what he brought to the table. I thought it was. This has been a year where a lot of performers have sort of gone out of their comfort zone to various degrees of success. And I think that Erin's doing a really fun job with the role of Freddie, which can be really hard role to navigate. Speaking of going outside of your comfort zone are two ladies in Fallen Angels, Kelli o' Hara and Rose Byrne, being messy, drunk and horny, and I am here for it, love. Let's get them in there.

[Dylan]

Absolutely.

[Matt Koplik]

I want both of them.

[Connor McDowell]

Both, please.

[Connor]

Both.

[Dylan]

I actually preferred Kelly, but would definitely love both in there.

[Matt Koplik]

I think that Kelly has a bit more of an arc as much of anyone can have an arc. In Fallen Angels, I think she has more of an arc, but Rose is given a bit more of, like, the physical jokes, if that makes sense. Like, she. They have more fun getting Rose to look fucked up in a way that Kelly's a bit more, like, glamorous, hungover, but similar to, like, death becomes her or, like, war, pain, or Wicked. It's sort of, how do you nominate one and not the other? Whereas Chess, I can see nominating Nick and not Erin or Aaron and not Nick. It's like they're not really a pair.

[Dylan]

Do you think we're gonna see Shayna get in for ragtime?

[Matt Koplik]

Nichelle featured ACTRESS in musical I feel like everyone is on the chopping block. Everyone is both a front runner and up for. For elimination at the same time. Who is the new? Who is the new this season? Who is the queen on Drag Race that got eliminated? But they were a front runner. I didn't watch.

[Connor]

Jane.

[Matt Koplik]

Jane, Jane. Jane Doe. Okay, Jane, Jane. Don't. Great. But that was sort of. The whole thing was like she had this amazing track record and then fully got chopped. And I feel like that's the case for featured actress in a musical this year of, like, you're all in the mix, but, like, none of you are safe. Including Nichelle, who I think a lot of people have as a front runner. I think Nichelle, too, could totally get chopped if, like, the nominators go fully hog wild for Schmigadoon. Right? Like, it.

[Sam Ekman]

Sure.

[Matt Koplik]

Cause there's Mackenzie, there's Ana. My MVP of that show is Izzy, who I think won't get nominated. Like, what if they agree with me?

[Dylan]

No, I would put all three of those schmigadoon gals in.

[Casey Balsham]

Yeah.

[Matt Koplik]

Like, honestly.

[Dylan]

Yeah.

[Matt Koplik]

Plus, like, there's some of the other people we discussed, but there's also, like, There's Jellicoe Ball, and, like, Tempress has the song and the narrative, and Tempress has a good job, but, like, I'm also sitting here going, emma, Sophia, Skimbleshanks. Like, get bitch in there.

[Dylan]

Standout moment. I mean, that's a truly featured moment that you could nominate that people remember from that show, and that would be so exciting.

[Casey Balsham]

Yeah.

[Matt Koplik]

And Shoshana's doing her damnedest to be grounded and cooking that kitchen. And Lost Boys, like, girlfriend can't leave a kitchen on a Broadway stage.

[Connor]

I do think she is the front runner in that category. And third time will be the charm

[Matt Koplik]

for Shoshana, and she's gonna win. Yeah. I think if. And. And I know we gotta wrap up soon, guys, but I think depending on how well Lost Boys does with nominations, that will be indicative of where Shoshana stands. Like, if Lost Boys actually gets a good number. I think if Shoshana and Ali both get in, Shoshana has a really strong shot. If LJ gets in for lead, then I'm like, oh, well, Shoshana's winning now.

[Dylan]

Yes, I would agree. I would agree on that for sure.

[Connor]

It would be an outsider's narrative, for sure.

[Matt Koplik]

Yeah. I mean, and Lost Boys is outsiders with fangs. Don't steal that. That's going into my Instagram Tony categories that don't exist this year.

[Connor]

Yes.

[Dylan]

That's a good one. That's a really good one. Yeah.

[Matt Koplik]

Thank you.

[Dylan]

And, you know, going back to future actor, and I mentioned twunks, I could see Max Clayton getting in too.

[Matt Koplik]

He's been popping up more and more, I would say. Yeah, I think. Think the only two people I feel confident just saying are nominated in that category are Ben for Ragtime and Andre for Jellicoe Ball. And then everything else is sort of like a. We'll see.

[Dylan]

I think Connie and Ali.

[Matt Koplik]

Connie and Ali. And then if. If you had to pick a fifth one, like, not even just who you'd want, but, like, gut reaction. So you have Connie, Ali, Andre, Ben. There's one more. Is it Bryce? Is it Max? Is it per my hot take?

[Connor]

I think it has to be Bryce. Let me look at my little list I have on my phone.

[Dylan]

I would say. I would say Max.

[Matt Koplik]

Okay. And I'm gonna say Shayna. Tab.

[Dylan]

I would.

[Connor]

I would actually say.

[Matt Koplik]

Wait, hang on.

[Sam Ekman]

What did I just. What did I just look at?

[Connor]

Oh, I would say that Leighton is a possibility then. In that.

[Matt Koplik]

Yeah, I do think Leighton's a possibility. I mean, listen, if we Live in a world where Constantine and Leighton are both in for Titanique. You're not gonna hear a goddamn complaint come out of my mouth that day. I'll be thrilled.

[Connor McDowell]

Ugh.

[Dylan]

What an amazing category. I'm most excited for featured actor in a musical after talking today and coming into it with, you know, my stuff prepped. But seriously, it's so exciting.

[Matt Koplik]

It's really exciting. I know. Gentlemen, we all have to go. But before we head out, any final, final thoughts you wanna share or if any Tony nominators are listening to this? If you could, like, plead a case for a show or a person or a creative, what would you do?

[Connor]

I don't want Queen of Versailles to be fully forgotten. And I've been listening to some of the music this week and I do think it should get in for score.

[Matt Koplik]

I agree. I agree.

[Dylan]

You guys are sick. You guys are sick. Sick people.

[Matt Koplik]

Connor, Caviar Dreams is a good song. It's a good song.

[Dylan]

Unfortunately, I've heard the score one time and could probably sing. You like, three different songs from it.

[Matt Koplik]

That's the one I've got in my

[Connor]

head all the time. Is that.

[Matt Koplik]

Yeah, it's in Caviar Dreams. It's in the Act 1 finale. It's in the 11 o' clock number. It's called a motif. Look her up. She's all over the place. But, yeah, I don't think Queen of Versailles is a good musical, Connor. I've said that before. But I do think there's something there. And I do think that there's elements to that score that work. And I think that the cast recording, and it's Stephen Schwartz's probably final Broadway shows. And what are like, what are they gonna do? Are they gonna put in three plays when they could put in, like, a pity nom for Queen of Versailles? Come on.

[Dylan]

I don't know about that. Okay, my final nominators, let me plead for Ben Allers in Death of a Salesman.

[Connor]

Oh, yes.

[Dylan]

I think he's giving such a comedic and heartfelt performance. And who would I be? I wouldn't be Connor McDowell if I didn't come in here saying, a hot man should be recognized. So come on, give it to the clock twunk.

[Matt Koplik]

Clock twink is dead. Long live the clock twunk.

[Dylan]

Yes. And Happy is a happy boy who's topless for half of Act 1. So made me happy.

[Matt Koplik]

Gio Mantello gave the people what they wanted.

[Dylan]

Legit.

[Matt Koplik]

Okay, so Dylan, you said hot take. Queen of Versailles won't get fully forgotten. I mean, I also think a set nomination there, right? Yeah.

[Connor]

Oh, for sure.

[Matt Koplik]

What were the interviews?

[Dylan]

It was a mess.

[Matt Koplik]

What are you talking about? The set? Are you kidding me?

[Casey Balsham]

It was a mess.

[Dylan]

It was. I felt so claustrophobic and, like, pieces were coming in that I had no idea where they were coming because it was under the.

[Matt Koplik]

Maybe.

[Connor]

Yeah, maybe that means it was successful.

[Dylan]

Connor. I didn't feel right about it. I felt wrong about it. It was not right.

[Matt Koplik]

Okay, okay, that's fine.

[Connor]

My other hot take was that Chess is overperforming. Don't forget that one.

[Matt Koplik]

Oh, yes. Yeah. Dylan. Chess is over performing. Connor thinks that Connie is getting in. And then twice. Twice, yes. He wouldn't be Connie if he couldn't get in twice. And then Ben Aller's getting in as well. Yeah. Okay, great. I love all of this. Gentlemen, thank you so much for joining us today. I'm gonna let you go on with the rest of your day and make sure everybody listens to drama with Connor and Dylan. All right, thank you very much, Twins. That's very enlightening from both of you. And last but not least, I did take to the Broadway breakdown, Discord, which, if you haven't joined yet, please do so. It's our regular call to action. But I must emphasize, it's just a really wonderful community. You guys have really found a groove there, and it's very respectful, very sassy, and in the best kind of ways. Right? It's. Everyone's very respectful of each other and playful in that way that you are with family and friends. This is to say, I did take to the Discord Channel and I said, hey, guys, you know, like, what are some of your big swings? What's really kind of in your gut telling you, I think this could happen? And people went off and there were definitely more. There were a couple of ones that people wrote where I don't think they truly believe it's going to happen so much as they were like, hey, what if it did? Which is like, yeah, sure, what if it did? What if I won $90 billion to work tomorrow? It could happen. It probably won't. But it seems that the ones that keep coming up and the one. I think there are a few that are more likely than others. Like one or two people mentioned Ben Levi Ross for Raxheim. I don't think that's a big swing. I think that is happening. There was talk of Bryce Pinkham in Chess. You heard that in a few of the segments today. It clearly could happen. People seem to really want it to Happen. And. And if that's true, then, you know, we need to pay attention to that. Other things. In featured actor in a musical, there was talk of maybe Ken Ard in Cats. He plays DJ Griddlebone. I don't really see that happening. Lovely job as he does. It's not quite an impactful enough performance. Brad Oscar and Schmidt Gadoon. It could happen. We do like Brad Oscar. The community really likes Brad Oscar. He doesn't have enough to do, in my opinion, in that show. I do think if anyone's getting in featured action from Schmingadoon, it's going to be Max Clayton, which at this point is a very strong possibility. There's talk of Junior labeija. I don't really think that's a big swing. I think that's sort of an on the bubble. Very much could happen, but also could not. Robert Silk Mason, who plays Mistoffeles and Cats. That is a bit of a swing. It would be an amazing swing. They're wonderful in the show. But yeah, it's not really a performance that's kind of gunning for awards, but it's a wonderful performance. And of course, uh, some have mentioned Paul Alexander Nolan in Lost Boys, which we love. We want that man recognized. But it's just. I don't think that this is the role. Um, although we said that before about other shows that he had the role that could get him nominated and it didn't happen. So, you know, watch him get nominated for the role. That's like not even his best role. Featured actress in a musical. Plenty of talk about Hannah Cruise in Chess. I think now that Stephanie Hsu is out of the running and featured actress, that allows a slot for Hannah Cruz to completely happen, especially since reception on Rocky Horror seems to be a little bit mixed. So while Amber Gray or Rachel Dratch could get in there, neither is a super strong possibility. Some have mentioned Melissa Barrera for Titanique. I would love that. I think she does a beautiful job. But Rose is kind of the wet blanket role of all the principals. Mackenzie Kurtz has been mentioned. I don't think that's a big swing. I think that's kind of a major possibility. A likelihood even more so for me than on a gas tire. But, you know, it's fine. I'm glad that a few of you mentioned Emma, Sophia and Cats. Jellicoe Ball. Lord knows I am on board with that. You hear us talk about it in a few of these past segments. One person mentioned Melody, but from Queen of Versailles, I will say she Did a lovely job in that show. The acting was acting. But yeah, while I personally am banging the drum, that Queen of Versailles is not going to go empty handed with nominations on Tuesday. I'm also, I do have a foot in the real world and I understand that like it getting even a single nomination for me is a victory in terms of being right. I don't see it getting more than 3. I still don't even think that Kristen's getting in. Even though if you listen to earlier, some people think it's possible featured actress in a play. People are banging the drum from Eloise Burke for the Ballisters. I think that's honestly more of a likelihood at this point. If it doesn't happen. I think that'd be more of a surprise than her not getting. Her getting in is less of a surprise than her not getting in. Some have mentioned James Corden in Art for lead actor. Again, possible Alfred Molina was nominated for the same role. Corden was objectively the best one in that show. But I do ultimately think Art is going to to blank on nomination day. It wasn't a bad production. It was just sort of a meh production of a play that isn't as good as we remembered it being in the 90s. But Corden was the best thing about it. There was mention of sound design for every brilliant thing. I think I mentioned that once a few weeks ago that that was a possibility for me. Just the way that they do the sound design for that show of being able to hear everyone in the audience when they're reciting the different brilliant things and, and making Daniel Radcliffe sound like he's right next to you without it being over amplified is really subtle but wonderful sound design work. And that is a category that is voted on solely by sound designers. So I think that the professionals in that nominating committee will recognize that feat, or at least I hope they do. There was a big swing for Chess for costumes, which, oh boy, if that happened, if that happens, I will never stop laughing because I'm trying to think like they would. That would be a situation where nominators would really, really, really, really go out of their way to not nominate Queen of Versailles for anything because we've got Jellicoval, which is just, I think winning hands down. Schmigadoon Ragtime. I do see Lost Boys getting in there for the 80s of it all. And that just relieves the Queen of Versailles of it all. There are just so much. There is a great abundance of costumes in that show and the truth is that if it doesn't get nominated, it's because of the elephant in the room of William Ivy Long. But also, the Tonys have proven in the past that sometimes they just don't care about that shit. They should, but they sometimes just don't. And, yeah, I mean, I can. I can't see it happening for chess, but if it does, I mean, also, I think Rocky Horror could get in there for costumes. They're very silly, they're very campy, they're very fun. They're very memorable. A lot, A lot of corsets. Also mentioned the Queen of Versailles for orchestrations. I don't think that's happening, but I do think those orchestrations fucking slap those flutes in Caviar Dreams, the American royalty. I think it's really fun. It gets my goat. In fact, I told Kent, our music director for the Broadway Breakdown live shows, as we are singing Caviar Dreams and are reviewing the 2025, 2026 season, I wanted him to include that flute flurry in the arrangements for the show. So, yeah, I do, like those orchestrations. Would be happy if they got in, but I just don't see it happening. And then another big swing that was mentioned, and we kind of talked about this earlier, is Joe Turner kind of overperforming with nominations, which is possible. It was very well received and I've definitely heard from some friends who've loved it. My experience is my experience, but what have you. I. I do think at this point it is getting in for revival and I do think that Ruben Santiago Hudson is getting in. There's talk of Taraji or Cedric getting in, of Debbie Allen getting in for director. I would say possible, not likely. You know, I wouldn't say necessarily on the bubble. I think they're. All three of them are sort of like one step away from the bubble. But, you know, it definitely could happen. I think those are some bold swings that are not totally out of left field. So, yeah, that's really it for this episode, guys. I hope that all of this, all these conversations have been illuminating, that as you listen to this, it helps you kind of define your final predictions for nominations, which will be coming out extremely shortly. And then once those nominations are out, you can decide for yourself how much this was actually helpful. But once the nominations are done, then it becomes about figuring out those damn winners. And we got a month of that, so lock in.

[Dylan]

Mm.

[Matt Koplik]

So that's it for this episode. If you like the podcast, once again, five star rating or review really helps us. You guys have been crushing it. With reviews lately. We are getting close to 400 ratings and reviews on Apple podcasts. We're not quite as close to 200 on Spotify, but we're getting closer. We're getting closer. So that's really wonderful. If you want to subscribe to the substack, that'd be amazing. The YouTube channel, that'd be amazing. I am on Instagram at mycoplic usualspelling. You'll be able to listen to me soon on the Stage Combat podcast with Sean Hayden, which will be great. And that's really it for this episode. I'm going to close this out with speaking of Queen of Versailles, a lady who is ineligible for a Tony this year but gave one of my favorite performances and leading actress in a musical, which is Ms. Sherri Renee Scott. And she's been sort of making the rounds again ever since the Rachel Zegler Ben Platt last five years concert's been going around. So we're gonna close out with Ms. Sherry Renee Scott because we love her. She's mother and she's back and she's doing musicals and we are so appreciative. Appreciative. Thank you, Sherry. Thank you guys for listening. We will see you when those nominations are announced. Take it away, Sherry. Bye. Nothing but fresh, undiluted and pure top of the line. Sam.