Broadway Breakdown: "Tony Awards 2026: A Way Too Early Chat w/ Richie Grasso and Jeff Malone"
Host: Matt Koplik
Guests: Richie Grasso & Jeff Malone
Release Date: January 22, 2026
Overview
In this lively, opinionated, and hilariously candid episode of Broadway Breakdown, host Matt Koplik welcomes back theater buffs Richie Grasso and Jeff Malone for a tradition: the "way too early" Tony Awards predictions. The trio unpacks what's opened so far for the 2025-2026 Broadway season, debates what could make it to nominations (and what might fall through the cracks), highlights overlooked performances and technical categories, and anticipates the unpredictable influx of spring shows. Their insights, zingers, and deep-cut knowledge make this an essential recap and forecasting session for theater lovers craving Tony tea months before the nominations drop.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
On the Timing of Predictions (01:19–02:29)
- The group agrees that early-season shows (June–December) often get forgotten by the time Tony nominations arrive. Richie points out the prestige and risk of going with gut picks before most spring productions open.
- Jeff: “We love to get this shit in, like in January when it’s still so wide open that anything is possible.”
Best Play: The Slate So Far (03:01–04:59)
- Early eligible contenders: Call Me Izzy, Punch, Little Bear Ridge Road, Liberation.
- Richie is “putting [his] money on Liberation as best Play” (03:59).
- Jeff agrees: “Liberation is an absolute lock for a nomination. It is absolutely the front runner right now.” (04:05)
- British imports Giant and Every Brilliant Thing could shake up the field later.
- Minor picks (Punch, Call Me Izzy) likely to be forgotten except possibly in acting nods.
Best Play Revival: Rule-Breaking and Crowded Fields (05:00–09:39)
- Current revivals: Art, Waiting for Godot, Oedipus.
- Discussion on Tony rules for what counts as a revival (Bug, Marjorie Prime) vs. original. Consensus is both will be considered revivals.
- Candidates: Oedipus (front-runner, especially with Leslie Manville's performance). Marjorie Prime and Bug are in the conversation.
- Becky Shaw could tip the numbers to five nominees if it ends up as a revival.
- “That is absolutely the most stacked category of the season…well, most packed.” – Jeff (07:31)
- Art makes money, but not artistic waves: “That is their reward.” – Jeff (08:43)
- Generational shift in what makes a play feel “of its time."
- “Art is such a 90s play. It was such a huge deal in 1998…that really was a pre-9/11 world, wasn’t it?” – Jeff (09:18)
Best Musical Revival: The Slim Pickings and Money Makers (09:39–14:23)
- Contenders: Ragtime, Chess, with Cats: Jellicoe Ball, Rocky Horror, and Mamma Mia coming.
- Beetlejuice ineligible due to Tony invite rules.
- Titanique will be considered new, not a revival.
- Nomination prediction: Top three likely Cats, Ragtime, plus either Chess or Rocky Horror. Jeff bets: “Unless Rocky Horror really shits the bed…it’s getting in over Chess.” (12:10)
- Cats vs. Ragtime for the win; Ragtime’s backstage politics and design choices may affect its chances:
- "There may or may not be also some people involved with this Ragtime who are not super well liked in the community... people are kind of looking for any reason to not vote for them." – Jeff (14:01)
- Scenery on Broadway: frustration with bare staging and missed design opportunities in Ragtime revivals:
- “My biggest thing with this Ragtime revival is this bare stage… Put them center. Different color on the psych behind them. It seems so concert-y to me.” – Matt (15:33)
Best Musical: The Thin Season and What’s to Come (17:42–20:16)
- Only two open so far: Queen of Versailles, Two Strangers Carry a Cake Across New York (the latter is the “probable front runner”).
- Four spring newcomers: Beaches, Titanique, Lost Boys, Schmigadoon – wildly different in style and expectations.
- The “thin” season means something could sweep by default:
- “I feel like this season is a lesson for everything that rushed their way to Broadway the last three years of. Maybe you should have taken that extra year...” – Jeff (19:57)
- Two Strangers is positioned well due to timing and lack of competition.
Technical Categories: Where Surprises Hide (20:43–29:24)
Sound Design (20:43–23:17)
- Likely tech nominees: Waiting for Godot, Oedipus, Two Strangers, Chess.
- Ragtime noted for some balance issues.
- Queen of Versailles has solid sound design but may not crack the top.
Orchestrations (27:15–29:24)
- Major candidates: Two Strangers, Queen of Versailles, Chess (possible new charts), Jellicoe Ball (noted for future innovation).
- “I didn’t mind the orchestrations for Queen of Versailles… unusually bad for Stephen Schwartz shows. Wicked orchestrations are good.” – Matt (28:31)
- John Clancy’s orchestrations and the upcoming cast recording may boost Versailles’ odds.
Score & Book: Originals Fighting for Space (29:26–33:51; 59:07–66:54)
- Score: Two Strangers and Queen of Versailles are the only true originals as of January. Others (Schmigadoon, Beaches, Lost Boys) have limiting eligibility or lack early enthusiasm.
- “There are worse scores than Queen of Versailles that got nominated in much more crowded fields.” – Jeff (30:21)
- Book: Two Strangers is likely the default if spring entries don’t impress.
- “My two biggest issues… are I do think it’s too long… and I don’t buy the romance at the end.” – Jeff (60:46)
- “If this was last season, the show would not be doing the same thing at all... would have closed by now...” – Jeff (64:27)
- Book and score categories may be "locked" now but will be disrupted by spring arrivals.
Design & Choreography: The Case for Creativity (35:08–50:15)
Costume Design
- Ragtime’s Linda Cho is the current front-runner; contemporary shows fight for recognition.
- Jellicoe Ball, Rocky Horror, and Schmigadoon are wild cards with inventive and period-influenced design.
Choreography
- Clear favorites haven’t emerged; Jellicoe Ball, Schmigadoon, and Lost Boys likely to dominate once open.
- “If they do it even remotely well, [Lost Boys is] getting in.” – Jeff (39:19)
Lighting & Set Design
- Ragtime’s lighting “held the whole show together.” (47:44)
- Oedipus and Queen of Versailles singled out for impressive design and visual storytelling.
Acting Categories: Early Locks, Cult Musicals, and Star Turns (53:49–96:12)
Plays:
- Lead Actress: Leslie Manville (Oedipus) is the “only one…absolutely putting money down” as a nomination lock. (89:06)
- Jean Smart (Call Me Izzy) “should be given a Nobel Peace Prize for the herculean effort she did…” but will likely be snubbed. – Jeff (71:40)
- Laurie Metcalf, Carrie Coon, and Susanna Flood are in the mix.
- Supporting Roles: Liberation has multiple contenders (Betsy Aidem, Kayla Davion). June Squibb and Cynthia Nixon in Marjorie Prime could figure depending on category placement.
- Lead Actor: Mark Strong, Oedipus, is highlighted; “all the art men” are potential nominees but spring competition looms.
Musicals:
- Lead Actress: Casey Levy (Ragtime) “in for sure.” Leah Michele in Chess is questioned by Jeff.
- Featured Actress: Nichelle Lewis (Ragtime) in conversation. Watch Jellicoe Ball, Schmigadoon, and Lost Boys for spring featured breakthroughs.
- Featured Actor: Ben Levi Ross (Ragtime) a notable mention, plus Bryce Pinkham (Chess), but field will expand after spring shows.
Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
Passion, Snark & Hot Takes
-
On the politics of revivals:
“There may or may not be also some people involved with this Ragtime who are not super well liked in the community... people are kind of looking for any reason to not vote for them.”
– Jeff Malone (14:01) -
On bare-bones design:
“My biggest thing with this Ragtime revival is this bare stage... It seems so concert-y to me.”
– Matt Koplik (15:33) -
On cult fandoms and hype:
“That’s the thing that I can’t begrudge the show... when you try to bring up this stuff, the fandom is like, ‘no, it’s perfect, it’s brilliant, and there’s nothing wrong with it.’ And I’m like, okay, then we’re done here.”
– Jeff Malone (63:53) -
On underwhelming productions:
"You know what’s not a punch? It’s a swing and a miss."
– Jeff Malone (90:15)
Important Timestamps
- 02:29 – Breaking down show eligibility and Tony rules for revivals vs. originals
- 04:59 – Early predictions for Best Play (Liberation as front-runner)
- 09:39 – Musical revivals: arguments for and against Ragtime, Cats, Chess, Rocky Horror, Mamma Mia, and Titanique
- 13:39 – Hot take: Cats as a likely winner over Ragtime
- 15:33–16:35 – Extended critique of Ragtime’s bare stage and design choices
- 17:42–20:16 – Best Musical predictions, and Two Strangers as winter front-runner
- 20:43–23:17 – Technical design categories, where unexpected shows may thrive
- 29:26–30:21 – Score nominations' oddsmakers–Stephen Schwartz’s chances for Queen of Versailles
- 59:07–66:54 – Book of a Musical: Two Strangers’ strengths and weaknesses, the likelihood of being usurped by spring arrivals
- 68:07–70:35 – Directorial categories: Ragtime’s Lear deBessonet not a lock; scrutiny amid production rumors
- 87:43–89:06 – Lead Play Actress: "Leslie Manville right now is the only one that I’m just putting such money down of."
- 96:10–97:36 – Musical leading performances: Casey Levy, Joshua Henry, and question marks for Leah Michele and others
Tonal Highlights
- Authentic candor: Candid language, plenty of f-bombs, and affectionate roasting characterize the episode.
- Theater insider wisdom: Anecdotes about backstage politics, designers, and Tony rules surface throughout.
- Enthusiasm for underdogs & new work: Frequent reminders to not sleep on shows like Jellicoe Ball, Marjorie Prime, and the outliers.
Summary Takeaways
- Winter Leaders: Two Strangers, Ragtime, Liberation, and Oedipus are the early “locks” for nominations in various fields.
- Spring Will Change Everything: Nearly all categories are “wait and see” for final predictions due to a glut of promising spring openings.
- Technical & Acting Trophies Up for Grabs: Expect surprises in sound, costume, lighting, choreography, and especially featured acting categories as new productions open.
- Politics and Design Choices Matter: Backstage team reputations, design innovation (or lack thereof), and narrative cohesion will be deciding factors.
- Consensus: Don’t bet the farm yet—by nomination time, the landscape may be unrecognizable.
Closing Quote
“Do not forget that Jellicoe Ball is coming...that's gonna be the bright shiny toy that everyone looks at.”
— Jeff Malone (98:51)
Find the Guests
- Matt Koplik: Instagram @MattCopley
- Richie & Jeff: “Half Hour Podcast” on all major podcast platforms & @halfhourpodcast on Instagram
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Summary by Broadway Breakdown's resident episode wrangler—now you can talk Tonys like you were in the room!