Broadway Breakdown: "Tony Awards 2026: What's Changed"

Host: Matt Koplik
Guest: Sam Eckmann (Gold Derby)
Date: April 9, 2026

Episode Overview

This energetic, explicit, and deeply inside-baseball episode dives into the 2026 Tony Awards race as the Broadway season heads into its final weeks. Matt and Sam—trusted, brash Broadway trend-watchers—trade analysis and anecdotes on the shifting awards landscape, from the major musical and play races to the most competitive categories and key industry trends.

Their conversation navigates best bets, major snubs to watch for, historic context, and the complexities of how Tony voters think—delivered with signature irreverence, pointed opinions, and a true Broadway fan’s fandom.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

The Best Musical Race: Fewer Shows, Lower Heat?

• Field Shrinkage & Underwhelming Slate
  • Matt opens with a "hot take": the Best Musical category is unimpressive and narrowed by fewer eligible shows.

    [02:16] Matt: "It's technically the biggest category and yet it's the most underwhelming this year, I find. Which is best musical—underwhelming, you say? Yeah, I mean, hot take, I think."

• Probable Nominees:
  • Consensus is the nominees will likely be Two Strangers, The Lost Boys, Schmigadoon, and Titanique (as Queen of Versailles flopped and Beaches is unlikely).

    [02:55] Sam: "...two strangers. The Lost Boys, Schmigadoon and Titanique."

• Front-Runner Status & Weaknesses
  • Two Strangers is seen as a frontrunner for being original and charming, echoing recent winners like Kimberly Akimbo—yet lacks true passion and Broadway heavyweights behind it.

    [04:52] Sam: "...it's a little bit of a weaker frontrunner than we've seen. It would be very easy to overtake it... everyone's kind of waiting for, like, is there going to be another one that really knocks us out of the park?"

  • Voters are fatigued by voting 'by default' and prefer to have options.

    [04:13] Matt: "There's no ill will towards Two Strangers ... it's not that they're rooting for it to not win so much as they're like, I would like to have options."

• Jukebox Musicals and Originality
  • Industry bias persists against jukebox musicals winning Best Musical; voters aim to "uplift our own people" and original composers (see: MJ vs. Strange Loop, Hell's Kitchen snubbed).

    [10:10] Sam: "It's just really hard right now as we see with the winners to win as a musical that has a pre existing score... There's been a concerted effort, you know, the last 15 years to say we want to uplift our own people."

• The 'Road Vote' Myth
  • The idea that tour-presenter voters dominate is outdated; they’re now only about 10% of the voting body.

    [07:43] Matt: "People always go, what's going to tour? Well, that, those, that road vote, they're going to really, you know, tilt the scale... they're about 10%, 800-plus voters. That's 80 people, which is nothing."

Best Musical Revival: "Make This the Last Award of the Night!"

• Clash of Titans: Ragtime vs. Cats
  • Two massive, creatively distinct revivals—Ragtime and Cats: The Jellicle Ball—are poised to dominate, collecting major nominations and audience buzz.

    [14:31] Sam: "I feel like Ragtime and Cats, the Jellicle Ball will be leading the nominations more than any other shows."

• Third Slot Up for Grabs
  • Chess and Rocky Horror Show are possible, but Rocky Horror’s beloved cult status is a double-edged sword—audiences expect specific things, critics less universally favorable.
• Nostalgia vs. Innovation
  • Discussion on how Roundabout often secures nominations for their revivals, and how new interpretations are judged against nostalgia for previous productions.

Performance Categories: Shifting Lines & Tight Races

• Lead Actor in a Musical: Few Locks, Big Scramble
  • Likely locks are Joshua Henry (Lost Boys), Sam Tutty (Two Strangers), and Luke Evans (Rocky Horror), with the potential for a 4- or 5-nominee field hinging on categorization (is Constantine in Lead or Featured?).

    [19:32] Matt: "I do think that Joshua, Henry, Sam, Tooty, and Luke would be, in my opinion, the locks..."

  • Matt jokes about the Tony quota for tight pants:

    [20:14] Matt: "That man fills out those pants so nicely. Let's. Let's. He does what we all want, what we all need."

• Featured Actor in a Musical: Jellicle Ball Effect
  • Jellicle Ball could score multiple acting nods: Andre De Shields is the consensus standout as Deuteronomy/“Gay Aslan,” followed by Sydney James Harcourt and Junior LaBeija as emotional potential nominees.

    [22:03] Sam: "Deuteronomy's entrance... must have lasted 10 minutes... Andre, like, was like, 'I'm gonna take a minute,' and was dancing his ass off up there, and everyone was just eating it up."

  • Debate over whether quiet, emotional numbers like "Gus the Theatre Cat" can win against flashier performances.
• Best Director of a Musical: Only One Lock
  • Jellicle Ball’s director is seen as the only true lock; the rest (Ragtime, Lost Boys, Rocky, Two Strangers, Titanique, Schmigadoon) could swing in or out on a whim.

Play Races: Overstuffed Categories, "Killing Your Darlings"

• Best Play Revival: Most Options, Fierce Competition

  • Only true locks: Death of a Salesman and Oedipus. Other possibilities include Marjorie Prime, Proof, Joe Turner’s Come and Gone, and Becky Shaw.

    [30:47] Sam: "I think there's only two locks which are Death of a Salesman and Oedipus."

  • Early-season favorites like Marjorie Prime risk being forgotten due to having closed months before nominations.

    [31:12] Matt: "Now I am getting very sad that, like, that's a show that could actually blank on May 5, which would be crazy."

• Featured Actress in a Play: "15 People for 5 Slots"

  • Fiercely contested with major performances from Laurie Metcalf, June Squibb, Betsy Aidem, Carrie Young, and more. Even with standout performances, it’s impossible to fit all favorites.

    [71:35] Matt: "I have to see proof. I have to see Fallen Angels... what I've seen, I would nominate in a featured actress. Laurie for Salesman and Betsy Item for Liberation, and June and Cynthia for Marjorie Prime. And then it's like, well, fuck, then who's five?"

  • Storytelling about potential publicity stunts:

    [33:37] Matt: "I like to think that Lois Smith and June Squibb have a Joan Crawford, Bette Davis relationship going on that no one knows about... It's absolutely not true. Those two women are absolute, you know, teddy bears. But just, wouldn't that be great..."

• Best Play

  • Matt's current picks: Liberation, The Ballisters, Giant, Little Bear Ridge Road, leaving the final slot up in the air.

Industry Trends & Notable Insights

• Original Scores Are Gold
  • Clear bias for new music in “Best Musical” and “Best Score” categories; pre-existing scores or jukebox shows rarely pull a win—voters want to "uplift our own people" (“...It's just really hard right now as we see with the winners to win as a musical that has a pre existing score.” – Sam, [10:10])
• Voter Motivations: Not Always About the Hit
  • Tony voters often strategically reward "the underdog" to keep worthy, smaller shows afloat.

    [07:30] Sam: "They're very aware of, like, which musicals will probably be okay if they don't win and then which ones really kind of need the box office boost..."

• Nominators vs. Voters
  • Nominations sometimes reflect a handful of nominators’ tastes, leading to surprises and outliers, especially when public controversy swirls.
• Institutional Memory & Recency Bias
  • Shows that close long before nomination period risk being forgotten, even with strong reviews—reminding listeners that Tony campaigns are a marathon, not a sprint.

Memorable Quotes & Signature Banter

• [02:16] Sam: "What do you mean you want more than six shows that are eligible for a category? God, you're so demanding."
• [05:34] Matt: "...it's rare that the voters for Best Musical vote for the sure thing anymore. It used to be like, oh, what's the biggest hit? You're gonna win it. And now it's like, no, which one really needs our vote, which will, like, close a week after Tony's if we don't vote for it?"
• [22:03] Sam: "Deuteronomy's entrance... must have lasted 10 minutes. The MC just kept going. And Andre, like, was like, 'I'm gonna take a minute,' and was dancing his ass off up there, and everyone was just eating it up..."
• [53:03] Matt: "I would love to see Peter Pan with you, Sam, because I imagine in the second act, when Tinker Bell is dying and Peter Pan says to all the children, clap your hands and... Tinkerbell will live. The kids are clapping their hands. You just turn to the kids and you go: that's not going to do it. That fairy's dead."
• [62:10] Matt: "You're really saying the bold claims today, Sam. You're saying that this time next year from Queen of Versailles may not be as good as Rose's Turn from Gypsy."
• [67:19] A: "Best Most. Diana, the winner of best most is..."

Timestamps for Major Segments

• 00:30: Welcome & Season Context
• 02:16: Best Musical—Consensus & Critiques
• 07:43: The “Road Voter” Myth
• 09:26: Jukebox Musicals and Originality in Best Musical
• 14:08: Best Musical Revival: Showdowns & Dark Horses
• 18:38: Lead/Featured Actor in a Musical—Likely Nominees & Fringe Contenders
• 20:09: Featured Actor in a Musical: Jellicle Ball’s Stacked Field
• 25:11: The ‘Best Musical Feature’ Performance Formula
• 30:20: Play Revival: Overcrowded, Only Two Locks
• 34:49: Best Featured Actress in a Play: A Bloodbath
• 46:20: Best Director of a Musical: Only One Lock
• 55:12: Lead Actress in a Musical—Favorite(s) and Variables
• 69:00: Best Actress in a Play: Wide Open, Oscar Buzz, Double Nominations
• 74:40: Final Thoughts—What to Watch & Closure

Shows & Performers to Watch (According to Matt & Sam)

• Original Musicals: Two Strangers, The Lost Boys, Schmigadoon, Titanique, (Outliers: Queen of Versailles, Beaches)
• Revivals (Musical): Ragtime, Cats: The Jellicle Ball, Rocky Horror Show, Chess
• Revivals (Play): Death of a Salesman, Oedipus, Marjorie Prime, Proof, Joe Turner’s Come and Gone, Becky Shaw
• Lead Actor/Musical: Joshua Henry, Sam Tutty, Luke Evans (+ Constantine if in Lead)
• Featured Actor/Musical: Andre De Shields, Sydney James Harcourt, Junior LaBeija, Bryce Pinkham (Chess), possible others from Lost Boys, Schmigadoon, Titanique
• Lead Actress/Musical: Casey Levy (Ragtime), Marla Mindelle (Titanique), Christiana Pitt (Two Strangers), Vosque (Beaches), Sarah Chase (Schmigadoon), Kristen Chenoweth (Queen of Versailles)
• Featured Actress/Play: Laurie Metcalf (Salesman), Betsy Aidem (Liberation), June Squibb (Marjorie Prime), Cynthia Nixon (Marjorie Prime), others...
• Other Names: Rose Byrne (Fallen Angels), Shoshana Bean (Lost Boys)

Final Thoughts & Looking Ahead

• Both Matt and Sam are awaiting reviews and last-minute opening night developments, keeping a close watch on late-opening original musicals (Lost Boys) and potential "sleeper hits" (Schmigadoon, Titanique).
• Joe Turner's Come and Gone and Proof could deliver surprises, especially in featured acting categories.
• Sam’s parting quip: “You sometimes AKA always have to kill your darlings. ... It's the figuring out how a voter's mind is going to work.” [54:13]

Outro:
The episode closes with good-natured ribbing, classic Broadway one-liners, and an enthusiastic Liza Minnelli tribute.

For More:
Find Broadway Breakdown on Substack, join the Discord, and follow Matt & Sam’s Tony journey on Instagram and GoldDerby.com.