Weekly wrap for the week ending May 16, 2026. It's been a week, daylight burners.

Trump flew to Beijing, shook Xi's hand, declared fantastic deals, and flew home. The soy market said show me the purchase order — beans closed the week down 31 cents from Monday's peak. The one concrete thing that came out of that summit? China quietly renewed import licenses for 400+ US beef plants on Thursday. Five-year validity. The door to the world's biggest beef market just reopened.

Cash cattle hit $260–$265 live and held all week — record territory. The WASDE cut US beef production 243 million pounds and raised the steer price forecast $8–$10 across the back half. The futures didn't believe it on Monday. By Friday, the board was following cash higher. The beef tariff executive order got pulled after ranch country raised hell. The Choice/Select spread is sitting at $0.10 — near inversion. Grilling season demand is very real.

Wheat was the print of the week. KC hard red ripped $0.81 on the WASDE before giving back Friday. New crop all-wheat production at 1.561 billion bushels — below the lowest analyst estimate. If you stored winter wheat, your bin got more valuable this week.

The Southern Plains and Southwest lit up Thursday and Friday. Hunggate Fire in Randall County TX — 14,000 acres, mandatory evacs, 5 simultaneous ignitions. Line Fire crossing from Quay County NM into the Texas Panhandle. Cimarron County Oklahoma getting hit again — same corridor as the February Ranger Road Fire. The NIFC season is running at 194% of the 10-year average. Nebraska already lost a million acres of summer grass. The Great Basin summer outlook is above normal for fire potential. Plan now, not in July.

Also on the show: pseudorabies confirmed in Iowa and Texas commercial swine — first time since eradication in 2004. Fertilizer Institute CEO told the Senate Ag Committee that 34% of global urea runs through the Strait of Hormuz. Urea is up 47% since February and the Hormuz premium is not peeling off. Purdue Ag Economy Barometer hit an October 2024 low — two-thirds of producers expect net farm income to fall in 2026. And North Dakota pastureland broke $1,000 per acre in every region of the state.

This is the show. Move your ass — we're burnin' daylight.

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