In this episode of the Friggin’ Farm & Ranch Report I’m pulling a lot of threads together: cattle on feed, beef imports, BLM’s backpedal on public lands, $5.60 diesel, and some very suspicious trades in oil and prediction markets.

Here’s what I walk through:

– May 1 Cattle on Feed: 11.6M on feed (+2% y/y), placements +6%, marketings –10% – first y/y increase in 18 months.

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– Beef cows still around 27.6M head (–1% y/y), so the cow factory is still tiny even if feedlots look heavy.

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– Q1 2026 beef imports at 562k metric tons / ~$4.5B, up 18% from last year and 122% from five years ago, while the Trump team talks about suspending beef import TRQs.

– BLM rescinding the 2024 Public Lands Rule and revoking American Prairie’s bison permits on seven Montana allotments, putting cattle back on those BLM pastures.

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– The board: June live around $248, August feeders about $349, July corn $4.58, KC wheat $6.76 – a don’t‑screw‑it‑up board, not a get‑rich one.

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– Inputs: EIA diesel at $5.596, AAA diesel at $5.584, DTN fert with DAP at $914, urea $865, anhydrous $1,118, and hay economics that pencil a multibillion‑dollar hole for alfalfa growers.

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– War reel: Iran, Hormuz, Brent screaming higher on war headlines, then a ceasefire dropping prices – plus a $950M crude short placed right before that ceasefire and a Green Beret indicted for using classified intel to trade Polymarket.

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– How all of that – war, imports, BLM, and Wall Street side bets – ends up in your fuel bill, fertilizer bill, and cattle checks.

If you want the charts and receipts I’m talking about, the full write‑up for this episode is on Substack (free to read and listen):

👉 https://burningdaylight.substack.com

That’s also where you get early access to the Burnin’ Daylight Report (my markets dashboard) and Man About a Horse.

Share it with a neighbor, send me your local sale‑barn reports and drought pictures, and remember: move your ass – we’re burnin’ daylight.

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