Business Daily — Food Prices After Hormuz: What Changes Now?
BBC World Service | Host: Sam Fenwick | Date: April 8, 2026
Overview:
This episode of Business Daily tackles the global impact of the recent US-Iran conflict in the Gulf, particularly disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, on food prices worldwide. Despite a ceasefire, spikes in fuel and fertilizer costs echo through the food supply chain, affecting farmers, food production, and ultimately, consumers. The show explores how lasting and widespread these disruptions might be, with expert insights on the ripple effects for food security and future prices.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
1. The Ripple Effect: From Gulf Conflict to Grocery Baskets
- Host Sam Fenwick introduces the topic with real-world examples from his own shopping basket—bread, bacon, and cooking oil—whose prices are vulnerable to upstream shocks in energy, transport, and fertilizer costs.
- “What's actually happening in the Gulf is pushing up the cost of energy, fertilizer, and transport all at once. And when that happens, it starts to feed through to the price of our food on our supermarket shelves.” (03:17, Sam Fenwick)
Notable Quote
“For months, the price of staples like this had actually been coming down. Global food prices have been falling for the past five months. But there are warnings that could be about to change.”
—Sam Fenwick (02:12)
2. How Fertilizer is the Flashpoint (with Laura Cross, International Fertiliser Association)
- The Middle East, especially through the Strait of Hormuz, is a vital supplier of fertilizer. The conflict caused physical export blockages, forcing suppliers to scramble for alternatives:
- “More than a third of global trade [of urea] is typically coming from this region around the Strait of Hormuz… For ammoniated phosphates… almost 20% of global trade.” (04:43, Laura Cross)
- Immediate result:
- “Global prices of urea, for example, have increased by over 50% at this point, compared to where we were four weeks ago.” (04:50, Laura Cross)
Notable Quotes
“So there's an immediate impact in terms of the physical flow of vessels...this physical disruption has prevented the fertiliser from leaving through that route.”
—Laura Cross (05:14)
“We've seen that the global prices of urea… have increased by over 50%.”
—Laura Cross (05:50)
3. On the Farm: Coping with Surging Costs (with Bill Webb, Arable Farmer, UK)
- Bill Webb breaks down the harsh economics facing farmers:
- Fertilizer bought in September 2025 for £350/ton; as of now, it’s £640/ton. (07:56, Bill Webb)
- Fuel/diesel costs nearly doubled as well.
- Farmers walk a tightrope between yield, quality, and profitability—reduced fertilizer use risks downgrading wheat from bread to feed quality, impacting returns.
- “If we reduce the nitrogen on bread making wheat, we get less protein and then it doesn't make the grade on feed wheat.” (08:30, Bill Webb)
- Farmer profits are squeezed as global grain prices aren’t keeping pace with rising input costs.
Notable Quotes
“We do have a model where we can look at the cost of the wheat and the cost of the fertiliser and adjustments are made. The problem we've got...if we reduce the nitrogen on bread making wheat, we get less protein and then it doesn't make the grade.”
—Bill Webb (08:30)
“We were paying 86 cents for a litre [of diesel], we're now paying $1.60, so we're close to twice the price.”
—Bill Webb (09:44)
4. The Supply Chain Squeeze: Farmer and Market Dilemmas
- Crop prices are determined globally—farmers can’t pass on added costs easily.
- Xiao Yi Deng (Argus Media) highlights high global inventories for wheat/corn, which may keep grain prices subdued despite higher expenses for farmers.
- “Even though input costs for farmers have increased… the grain price that they achieve… may not be able to fully reflect the input cost increase.” (10:47, Xiao Yi Deng)
Notable Quote
“Farmers are facing quite tough decisions to say, is it worth still putting in that much fertilizer in order to boost yields? ... Because in the past few seasons that higher protein product has not achieved as much premium.”
—Xiao Yi Deng (11:20)
5. Lessons from Past Disruptions & Ongoing Risks
- Similar spikes occurred after COVID-19 & Russia’s Ukraine invasion, with countries imposing export restrictions to safeguard domestic supplies.
- Countries like China, Turkey, and Russia have implemented fertilizer export bans, risking a domino effect on availability and prices globally.
Notable Quotes
“Once you have a few of these export restrictions that layer on top of each other, it can then cause somewhat of a domino effect.”
—Laura Cross (15:14)
6. Global Food Security and Policy Worries (with Maximo Torero, Chief Economist, FAO, UN)
- Rising input costs may force farmers globally to plant less, use less fertilizer, or switch to crops requiring fewer inputs—potentially reducing yields and food supply in coming seasons.
- “Today we have enough food in the world...but they have to replenish [supplies] at a higher cost. So what choices do they have to make?” (15:57, Maximo Torero)
- Early signals: while stocks are cushioning immediate shocks, food inflation is expected to build into late 2026 and beyond if disruptions persist.
- “Right now we are already observing increases...corn has gone up 5 to 6%, soybeans 13.5%, wheat 1%... The inputs are in 15, 60%... But if the conflict continues and the strait continues to be closed. Yes, we will be start facing bigger prices by the second half of the year and the whole next year.” (17:11, Maximo Torero)
- Structural issues: Supply responses for fertilizer production “will take three to four years” to scale up (17:55, Maximo Torero).
Memorable Quotes
“As the input costs are going up, that directly means that our thresholds, our benefits are becoming zero or negative. ...What that means for the end of the year and for next year—less supply of food, and therefore that will affect prices. That will create food inflation.”
—Maximo Torero (15:57)
“If we open the strait today, it will take three months, more or less, to stabilize the flow and the insurance cost, but not at a full operational capacity... [for full recovery] we are talking of the full next year.”
—Maximo Torero (18:17)
Timeline of Key Segments
| Timestamp | Topic/Quote | |-----------|------------------------------------------------------------------| | 01:08 | Opening: food price worries after Gulf conflict | | 03:17 | How fuel and fertilizer costs drive food prices (Fenwick) | | 04:38 | Fertilizer bottlenecks: Middle East’s role (Cross) | | 05:50 | Urea price up 50% (Cross) | | 07:56 | UK farmer perspective on surging input costs (Webb) | | 09:44 | Diesel costs for farmers almost double (Webb) | | 10:47 | High grain inventories keep sale prices low (Deng) | | 11:20 | Farmer’s dilemma: quality vs. profitability (Deng) | | 14:21 | Fertilizer export restrictions’ domino effect (Cross) | | 15:57 | Impact on global food security, farmer decision points (Torero) | | 17:11 | Early signs of food price inflation, and what’s next (Torero) | | 17:55 | Contrast with 2022; supply constraints will last years (Torero) | | 18:17 | Recovery timeline for trade flows through Hormuz (Torero) |
Tone and Takeaways
- Analytical and practical: The episode takes a grounded, evidence-based look at macroeconomic shocks, but personalizes it through farmers and experts on the ground.
- Cautiously urgent: While supermarket shelves remain full for now, all voices underscore that the aftershocks of Gulf disruptions will persist, affecting next season’s harvests and perhaps making global food inflation inevitable.
Summary Quote:
“Supermarket shelves remain stocked, but behind the scenes, the pressures are still building. And what happens next will depend on how long this disruption continues and how governments, markets and businesses respond.”
—Sam Fenwick (18:48)
For those in agriculture, policy, or simply concerned about next year’s grocery bill, this episode provides a comprehensive and clear-eyed account of how geopolitical turmoil flows down to the breakfast table—and why the story might just be beginning.