Has Canada lost its trade war with the US?

Summary

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Business Daily — Has Canada Lost Its Trade War with the US?

BBC World Service, October 13, 2025
Host: Sam Grouet

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Episode Overview

This episode investigates the aftermath of the recent trade war between Canada and the United States, following Canada’s decision to remove most retaliatory tariffs against US goods. Host Sam Grouet explores the economic and social impact of seven months of cross-border tariffs, the government’s rationale for the policy shift, and what the future of Canada-US trade may hold from the perspectives of citizens, business leaders, and industry stakeholders.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Timeline and Escalation of the Trade War

• The trade conflict began after the re-election of Donald Trump, the 47th US president, who imposed tariffs to bolster American manufacturing (02:06).
  • Trump: “Over the next four years, we will make America into the manufacturing superpower of the world.” (02:18)
• The US initiated a 25% levy on Canadian imports; Canada responded with counter-tariffs.
• Mark Carney, newly elected Canadian Prime Minister in March 2025, vowed not to back down, resisting the US measures (02:44).
  • Carney: “President Trump is trying to break us so that America can own us. That will never, that will never, ever happen.” (02:52)
• August 1st: The US increases tariffs to 35% on specific Canadian exports (03:02).

2. Canada’s Tariff Pullback & Its Implications

• Carney’s government relaxes tariffs on US goods, arguing that exemptions under USMCA (United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement) provide Canada with a strong trade arrangement (03:18–03:40).
  • Everyday items such as groceries, appliances, clothing, and electronics can now cross the border tariff-free while Canada renegotiates USMCA.

3. Public Sentiment in Toronto

• Many Canadians are changing their consumer habits, favoring domestic or non-US goods due to sentiment, not always price (04:02–05:04).
  • Jane (Toronto resident): “Anything that we’re buying, we say we want it Canadian made or made in Mexico or... But we’re staying away from buying US produce, food, anything coming from that, anything made in the States.” (04:28)
  • There’s a noticeable reluctance to travel to the US, with Canadians choosing to vacation and spend at home (04:53).
• On whether Canada lost the trade war after dropping tariffs:
  • Cassie (Toronto resident): “Not really. ...We have some things that they really need. One is water, one is oil. And what is electricity? ... we don’t need them as much as they think they do.” (05:08)
  • Some feel Canada is resilient and can leverage its natural resources.

4. Mixed Reactions from Canadian Business Community

• Catherine Fortune Lefebvre (Canadian Chamber of Commerce):
  • Tariff removal reduces costs for some sectors but frustrates others, especially auto, aluminum, and steel (07:01).
  • Necessary to resume trade talks with the US administration:
    • “There needed to likely be movement on the trade front, on the discussion front, and things were stalling.” (07:49)
  • The upcoming USMCA review in July 2026 is a significant motivator for current policy maneuvers.

5. Effects on Canadian Exporters

• 27% of Canadian exporters have deprioritized the US as their primary export market; nearly 40% have diversified away from US supply chains (09:21).
  • Lefebvre: “We have to, you know, not rely so heavily on the U.S.... we need to do more to hedge our bets and to make more friends and go outside of the U.S.” (09:21)

6. On the Ground: Ontario’s Forest Industry

• Ian Dunn (President & CEO, Ontario Forest Industries Association):
  • The lumber sector is still hit hard with a 35% tariff, suffering dual pressure from both import and export duties (12:48–13:49).
    • “For a lot of our members ... they were paying tariffs at the border to pull [US-sourced] product in. And for lumber producers, they were paying duties to sell that product back into the American market. So they're getting hit on both sides.” (12:48)
  • Ontario lost 38,000 jobs in Q2 2025, 30,000 in manufacturing alone, with industry employment reduced by half over the past 20 years (14:15–14:36).
    • “His family has held a license to cut timber ... for 110 years and he's had to shut down his sawmill. ... It's more the compounding challenges that many, many companies face.” (14:36)

7. Short & Medium-term Outlooks

• Dunn: Remains optimistic, believing President Trump could strike a deal favorable to Canada if the opportunity arises (15:36).
  • “The Trump administration, I think, has demonstrated that they're not beholden to anyone. So if there's a deal to be made, I think President Trump would be very interested in that.” (15:36)
• Despite optimism, nearly 40% of Canadian small businesses said they might not last another year under the old tariff regime; 60% are burdened by higher costs (15:56).

8. Small Business Perspective: Regimen Labs

• Alex Apostolopoulos (Co-founder, Regimen Labs, Toronto):
  • Describes recent months as “chaos,” with uncertainty and rapid change disrupting planning, especially for smaller businesses (16:30–17:20).
  • Unexpectedly, Canadian consumer patriotism boosted domestic sales, with the Canadian market now matching the US in revenue for the first time (17:26–18:44).
  • Alex urges a focus on strengthening the Canadian economy, boosting productivity and innovation, rather than retaliatory trade measures (19:00).
    • “As much as I want to tell the government ... push back, play a bit of a game of chicken ... the only thing that we can be certain of is our economy here.” (19:00)

9. Looking Ahead: Trade Renegotiations

• As of episode recording, Carney and Trump had met in Washington; no new deal reached yet.
• Anticipation builds for the 2026 USMCA renegotiation, seen as pivotal for future Canada-US economic relations (19:29).

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Mark Carney: “President Trump is trying to break us so that America can own us. That will never, that will never, ever happen.” (02:52)
• Cassie (Toronto): “We don’t necessarily need the US as much as they need us.” (06:12)
• Ian Dunn: “We have members in our association that have reduced shifts, laid people off. We have a member, his family has held a license to cut timber in the province of Ontario for 110 years and he's had to shut down his sawmill.” (14:36)
• Alex Apostolopoulos: “Very honestly. Just chaos is what I would, what I would describe that as. No one really knows what to do...” (16:58)
• Alex Apostolopoulos: “We’ve tripled our revenue in Canada and that’s continued.” (18:03)
• Alex Apostolopoulos: “The only thing that we can be certain of is our economy here. ... There really is a lot that we can do to improve productivity and innovation in this country.” (19:00)

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Timestamps for Key Segments

| Timestamp | Segment Description | |-----------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 01:14 | Canadian Government announces removal of most tariffs on US goods | | 02:06 | Review of US-Canada trade war escalation (Trump’s tariffs and election context) | | 04:02 | Toronto citizens’ perspectives on buying habits and travel | | 06:04 | Views on Canada’s rationale for dropping tariffs, debate on who “won” | | 07:01 | Chamber of Commerce’s view on the business impact and the need for trade talks | | 09:21 | Data on export market and supply chain diversification by Canadian businesses | | 11:30 | Interview with Ian Dunn, impact on Ontario’s forest sector | | 12:48 | Details on lumber tariffs and their impact on the industry | | 14:36 | Historic job and investment loss in Ontario’s forest industry | | 16:30 | Visit to Regimen Labs, small business adapting to trade disruption | | 17:26 | Surge in Canadian consumer patriotism and its effects | | 19:29 | Update on Carney/Trump meeting and anticipation for renewed trade talks |

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Conclusion

This episode of Business Daily weaves together government, business, and citizen perspectives, painting a nuanced picture of Canada’s evolving trade relationship with the US. While the recent removal of tariffs may appear like a concession, interviews and data reveal a strategic recalibration, focused increasingly on economic self-reliance, diversification, and innovation ahead of crucial 2026 USMCA renegotiations. The tone throughout is one of pragmatic resilience—balancing costs and losses with hope for a more stable, mutually beneficial trade future.

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Transcript

[Sam Grouet]

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[Cassie]

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[Alex Apostolopoulos]

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[Cassie]

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[Sam Grouet]

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[Alex Apostolopoulos]

I'm announcing today that the Canadian government will now match the United States by removing all of Canada's tariffs on U.S. goods specifically covered under CUZMA.

[Sam Grouet]

As Canada's Prime Minister scraps most tariffs on U.S. goods, we're asking, has Canada lost its trade war with the U.S.

[Ian Dunn]

Yeah, it makes you feel bad as a Canadian when you're being beaten up.

[Sam Grouet]

Exploring how seven months of tariffs and counter tariffs have hit Canada's economy.

[Ian Dunn]

We have members in our association that have reduced shifts, laid people off, and.

[Sam Grouet]

What the future of trade looks like for the two neighboring countries. That's all coming up on Business Daily. I've spent the past year living here in Canada, and in that time, the trade war with the US has been the biggest story in town. So how did we get here?

[Cassie]

Donald Trump, America's 47th president. He claimed victory.

[Sam Grouet]

Donald Trump won the US election in November last year with a pledge to rebuild American manufacturing.

[Cassie]

Over the next four years, we will make America into the manufacturing superpower of the world.

[Sam Grouet]

His tool was tariffs, basically import taxes on foreign goods. At first, President Trump put a 25% levy on Canadian imports, but then Canada pushed back with its own counter tariffs.

[Alex Apostolopoulos]

Donald, you're a very smart guy. This is a very dumb thing to do.

[Sam Grouet]

In March, Mark Carney was elected as Canada's new prime minister. On a promise not to back down against U.S. trade tariffs.

[Alex Apostolopoulos]

President Trump is trying to break us so that America can own us. That will never, that will never, ever happen.

[Sam Grouet]

Then on the 1st of August, the White House slapping Canada with a 35% tariff.

[Alex Apostolopoulos]

Goods under the United States Mexico Canada agreement won't be affected by this. But other sectors like lumber and the auto industry, they will feel the impact.

[Sam Grouet]

This was enough for Prime Minister Carney to relax duties on US Goods. He argued the exemptions under the U. S Mexico Canada Agreement, or USMCA gave Canada a good deal with the U.S.

[Alex Apostolopoulos]

Canada currently has the best trade deal with the United States.

[Sam Grouet]

It means everyday items like groceries, household appliances, clothing, electronics can now all cross the US Border tariff free while Canada's government works with Washington on renegotiating that USMCA deal. So what do the people in Canada's biggest city, Toronto, make of the trade war?

[Cassie]

Hi, I'm Jane. It'll be interesting to see what the end result is. What happens if Mr. Trump decides that maybe he's going to do a little lessing on some of the steel and aluminum trading that we're doing right now with the tariffs. But for myself, I'm just saying I'm buying a new car and I'm obviously looking at not coming through the states because of the tariffs.

[Sam Grouet]

Most North American cars are tariff free under usmca. So Jane's decision is more about sentiment than cost.

[Cassie]

I have had American cars like Ford and so on, but anything that we're buying, we say we want it Canadian made or made in Mexico or. I mean, the Chinese trade is huge here too. But we're staying away from buying us produce, food, anything coming from that, anything made in the states. And most of us are not going to the states to visit anymore. We're staying.

[Sam Grouet]

And you would have previously done all of those things?

[Cassie]

Absolutely. Gone to the States for holidays months at a time, not going. All our friends are not going. They've got houses in Florida. They're not going. They're staying basically home and spending money in Canada.

[Sam Grouet]

Do you think that Canada has lost this trade war now that it's dropped the tariffs?

[Cassie]

Not really. I think they're going to the table. I think they're down there right now deciding how this is all going to work because we have some things that they really need. One is water, one is oil. And what is electricity? Some basics in life that we all need. Right. So we're not going to give into this. And yeah, we're retelling a little differently. We don't need them as much as they think they do.

[Sam Grouet]

What's your name?

[Cassie]

Cassie.

[Sam Grouet]

Hi. Nice to meet you, Cassie.

[Cassie]

Hi. It does make me very reluctant to travel to the US I usually do pretty often. I have family out there, so it's kind of impacted my travel decisions because if we're sort of in a tariff where I don't really want to support by going over there.

[Sam Grouet]

So you're Canadian?

[Alex Apostolopoulos]

I'm Canadian.

[Sam Grouet]

And you have family in the States?

[Cassie]

Yeah, I do.

[Sam Grouet]

Has that been a source of tension at all?

[Cassie]

Surprisingly, no. I actually find most of my US Family, they've actually planned to come here because they don't necessarily agree with what's.

[Alex Apostolopoulos]

Going on in the US Either.

[Sam Grouet]

Canada's dropping its retaliatory tariffs. A lot of them, not all of them, but most of them against the U.S. do you think that's the right call?

[Cassie]

We only retaliated because of what was sort of done to us. But by the same token, I think that who we are as Canadians, we.

[Alex Apostolopoulos]

Kind of demonstrate that as bad as.

[Cassie]

It sounds, we don't necessarily need the US as much as they need us. Well, Canada is a small country.

[Sam Grouet]

We depend on trade further along the road. I speak to Ian to the extent.

[Ian Dunn]

That we can improve our relationship with.

[Cassie]

The Americans, you got to do it.

[Ian Dunn]

Because they're big, we're small.

[Sam Grouet]

So right decision.

[Cassie]

Yeah, it's the right decision.

[Ian Dunn]

Yeah.

[Sam Grouet]

It's a difficult decision to make.

[Ian Dunn]

Yeah.

[Cassie]

It makes you feel bad as a.

[Ian Dunn]

Canadian when you're being beaten up.

[Sam Grouet]

So do you think Canada's lost the trade war, then?

[Cassie]

I think it's going to go on.

[Ian Dunn]

For the next three and a half years and maybe even during Mr. Trump's third term.

[Sam Grouet]

So that's the view of some residents in Canada's biggest city. But what about Canadian businesses?

[Cassie]

Well, I would say the reaction has been a bit mixed.

[Sam Grouet]

Catherine Fortune Lefebvre is from the Canadian Chamber of Commerce. They represent businesses of all sizes across the country.

[Cassie]

There are those who will see that this will reduce costs, consumers will be paying less for certain goods, and so that's good for business. And then there's also the feeling of, well, we could be taking a more aggressive stance with the US and, you know, certain sectors certainly have been hit harder. I'm thinking of the automotive and aluminum and steel. But I think generally, and this is our feeling as well, is that there's an understanding that it's something that was probably necessary for the Prime Minister to do to resume trade talks with the Trump administration.

[Sam Grouet]

And so that's what the Prime Minister, Mark Carney, said. But why do you think he's done this and why now?

[Cassie]

There needed to likely be movement on the trade front, on the discussion front, and things were stalling. There was a deadline that was announced in the summer that the US And Canada would have a trade deal by the first of August. And that deadline came and went.

[Alex Apostolopoulos]

All right. We're less than 24 hours away from.

[Cassie]

Some of the President's new tariffs taking effect.

[Alex Apostolopoulos]

Officials.

[Cassie]

So our belief is that this is to make sure that trade talks are resuming. But there's also a belief that at the end of the day, Canada is looking to have the most favorable deal that it can with the US under Kuzma or USMCA, and that is set to be officially reviewed on July 1st of 2026.

[Sam Grouet]

The US Mexico Canada Agreement, or USMCA, is the latest iteration of a free trade deal between the three North American countries agreed in President Trump's first term in office in July 2020.

[Cassie]

So anything that's being done now and in the following months is really to set the stage for the most favorable renegotiation, which it's what it's become a renegotiation of, you know, our most important trade agreement.

[Sam Grouet]

And in the meantime, spoken about the lack of movement in trade negotiations, but also the lack of stability for businesses. What has the impact of that been on Canada's economy?

[Cassie]

When you talk to businesses, they're tired of the ups and downs and the not knowing what's going to happen. We have surveyed many of our members across the country and we saw actually that in a four month time frame in the spring, about 27% of Canadian exporters have moved away from the US being their primary export market. We've also seen close to 40% of exporters diversify away from US supply chains. We have to, you know, not rely so heavily on the U.S. because right now 75% of our trade is with the U.S. we know that the U.S. will always be our primary trading partner for many reasons, including proximity in the same language and so on, but that we need to do more to hedge our bets and to make more friends and go outside of the U.S. you're.

[Sam Grouet]

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[Alex Apostolopoulos]

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[Cassie]

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[Sam Grouet]

I'm Sam Grouet. Today has Canada lost its trade war with the US Hi, how's it going? Nice to meet you.

[Ian Dunn]

Nice to meet you.

[Sam Grouet]

In the center of Toronto, I've come to meet Ian Dunn, a forester and and the president and CEO of the Ontario Forest Industries Association. Fittingly, we meet under some trees. This is a great spot. Should I take a seat?

[Ian Dunn]

Yeah, sure, sure. Watch it. There's acorns falling for this one.

[Sam Grouet]

Lumber, or timber is one of Canada's largest and most famous exports. But it's one of a few goods still subject to a 35% tariff when exported to the U.S. and Ian, we're sat in the middle of a park surrounded by some beautiful trees. Behind us we have the Ontario Provincial Legislative Building with a big old Canadian flag on the front. Really big, probably one of the biggest I've seen. What's the significance of this place in terms of your role?

[Ian Dunn]

So this, this place is very, very important to us. This is where we meet with our ministers and MPPs from ridings that depend on our industry that support 128,000 jobs across the province. And where we meet with Premier and the Minister of Natural Resources to talk about things like the trade dispute.

[Sam Grouet]

A trade dispute that hasn't spared an industry that produces everything from paper to smoke wood flavoring from economic damage.

[Ian Dunn]

And for a lot of our members who pull product in from the United States, chemicals, for example, in the making of engineered wood products, a lot of that comes in from the US they were paying tariffs at the border to pull that product in. And for lumber producers, they were paying duties to sell that product back into the American market. So they're getting hit on both sides.

[Sam Grouet]

Of the border and just to jump in There these chemicals aren't something that you can just buy in Canada.

[Ian Dunn]

No. Over time it can, could be a possibility, but certainly not in the short term. So, yes, they were, they were being brought in from the US and continue to be. So I think the countermeasures being dropped is actually probably a net benefit for a lot of our members. But still, on the lumber side, going into the U.S. we are paying 35% duties, which we haven't, we haven't seen before.

[Sam Grouet]

Which means that if you import any of your lumber to the US you're paying 35% premium just to be able to get across that border and access these markets.

[Ian Dunn]

That's right. Every shipment of lumber, the importer of records. So our companies, our member companies, have to pay that 35% and the hope is that the customer will pay that. But there is also the option for the American consumer to go to other markets and they have, since the end of the last agreement, they've quadrupled the imports from garage Germany and Sweden and Brazil because they have artificially increased the price of lumber coming in from the, from Canada.

[Sam Grouet]

Rather, the duties, on top of years of economic uncertainty for the industry has pushed some businesses to the brink of closure. And they're not alone. Ontario lost 38,000 jobs in the second quarter of 2025, with nearly 30,000 of those disappearing in manufacturing over the last.

[Ian Dunn]

20 years, we've seen a lot of investment leave Canada and go to other jurisdictions like Central and South America and Asia. And as a result, the capacity to produce either lumber, pulp and paper has reduced over time. And so over the last 20 years, we've seen a reduction of direct jobs, essentially halved. So we have less than half of the amount of people working in this industry than we did 20 years ago. We have members in our association that have reduced shifts, laid people off. We have a member, his family has held a license to cut timber in the province of Ontario for 110 years and he's had to shut down his sawmill. He's the last on the line to hold that license. So it's hard to tease apart what precisely the duties and tariffs had on that closure. It's more the compounding challenges that many, many companies face.

[Sam Grouet]

And let's move on to what the future looks like. So are you optimistic for what the short term and medium term future looks like?

[Ian Dunn]

I am optimistic and I think the American industry typically held a lot of power over previous presidents and previous administrations. And the Trump administration, I think, has demonstrated that they're not beholden to Anyone. So if there's a deal to be made, I think President Trump would be very interested in that.

[Sam Grouet]

But while Ian is optimistic, others are not. Almost 40% of Canadian small businesses said they might not be able to last another year if the current tariff rules had stayed in place. According to a survey from the Canadian Federation of independent business, some 60% say they face higher expenses because of the trade disruption.

[Alex Apostolopoulos]

And we're welcome.

[Cassie]

Yeah.

[Sam Grouet]

This is in the city of Toronto, which is around 90 minutes drive from the US border. We've come to skincare company Regimen Labs.

[Alex Apostolopoulos]

We have our lab up here, another one downstairs.

[Sam Grouet]

Co founder Alex Apostolopoulos is giving us a tour of the office, which doubles as a laboratory.

[Alex Apostolopoulos]

Where we're standing now is where we formulate and develop all of our products.

[Sam Grouet]

Alex explains how his company, which manufactures here in Canada and ships to the US has weathered the past few months.

[Alex Apostolopoulos]

Very honestly. Just chaos is what I would, what I would describe that as. No one really knows what to do and the timelines are happening so quickly that even if they did know what to do, none of the people who are good at this have bandwidth, especially for smaller companies in terms of planning and seeing into the future a little bit, it's almost impossible now.

[Sam Grouet]

But the trade dispute has provided an unexpected opportunity for Alex's business.

[Alex Apostolopoulos]

I would say, first and foremost, the response from Canadians. So our sales, we didn't even really see it coming, but they started to grow a lot early in this year. And we realized, okay, it's coming from Canada, it's obvious what's happening and that's wonderful. But we also didn't think it would necessarily last. We thought we're experiencing a moment of patriotism. You know, Canadians are pretty modest in all directions. And so we thought, yeah, this will carry for a while, but we're not really going to plan on it continuing. And I mean, we've tripled our revenue in Canada and that's continued.

[Sam Grouet]

Something Alex says came as a complete shock.

[Alex Apostolopoulos]

We started here, we're based here, but from day one, our sales, most of our sales were to the U.S. that's not uncommon for Canadian brands. We didn't even necessarily sort of specifically target the U.S. we always thought it would be lower hanging fruit to find Canadian consumers and get discovered here. But, you know, the size of the market, the interest in skincare in that market, you know, the, the US again from day one has always been our biggest market. This is the first time where we're seeing that change. And suddenly the Canadian market this year is on par with our U.S. market, even though we're growing still in the.

[Sam Grouet]

U.S. alex says he feels lucky that he hasn't had to cut jobs or move production. But on whether Canada has lost the trade war, he says now is the time to focus on strengthening the economy rather than fighting back.

[Alex Apostolopoulos]

So as much as I want to tell the government, yeah, you know, like, like push back, you know, play a bit of a game of chicken, what do we have to lose? I think, you know, the only thing that we can be certain of is our economy here. And, you know, there really is a lot that we can do to improve productivity and innovation in this country. And I think they're talking about it. And I would say anything that we can do in Canada to build that ecosystem would, you know, will see benefits.

[Sam Grouet]

Since we recorded this program, Prime Minister Carney and President Trump have met in Washington to discuss trade, but no deal has yet been agreed.

[Cassie]

We have a natural conflict. It's a natural business conflict. Nothing wrong with it. And I think we've come a long way over the last few months, actually.

[Sam Grouet]

In terms of that relationship. All eyes are still on next year's USMCA trade renegotiations. You've been listening to Business Daily on the BBC World Service with me, Sam Grouet. This episode was produced by Megan Lawton. Thanks for listening. You can find more episodes wherever you get your BBC podcasts.

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