Podcast Summary — Business Daily (BBC World Service)

Episode: How global conflict's changing air travel
Date: January 26, 2026
Host: Rick Kelsey

Overview

This episode of Business Daily investigates how expanding zones of conflict are reshaping commercial air travel worldwide. With significant airspace closures, particularly over Russia and Ukraine, airlines face rising costs, longer flight times, operational stresses, and environmental consequences. Guests include risk analysts, aviation experts, travel writers, and pilots—each offering insight into the operational, economic, and environmental ripple effects born out of these new realities in the sky.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Shrinking Airspace and Flight Re-Routing

• Airspace closures: Due to the Ukraine war and associated sanctions, vast portions of Russian, Ukrainian, and Belarusian airspace are closed to many carriers, forcing airlines to plot new, often circuitous routes.
• Historical echo: Some routes, such as Tokyo to London, now resemble flight paths from the 1970s, taking the polar route over Alaska to avoid Russian airspace.
  • “This route going over Alaska is common again like it was in the 1970s when it used to stop to refuel. But now it’s often to avoid Russian airspace due to the Ukraine war.” — Rick Kelsey (02:45)

2. Rising Costs: Economic Impact for Airlines and Passengers

• Increased journey times: Lufthansa reports typical detours adding 1–2 hours to long-haul flights.
• Direct cost implications:
  • “Each additional minute of flight time leads to an average increase in passenger fares of £1.20, around $1.60.” — Rick Kelsey (05:01)
  • According to the German Aerospace Center, Finnair’s Helsinki–Tokyo route is now 3,100 km longer, taking an additional 3.5 hours.
• Ripple effect on fares and award travel: Airlines pass the increased operational costs onto consumers, both in ticket prices and in reduced availability of points-based redemptions.
  • “These airlines are now faced with couple hours extra crew and fuel costs in each direction, and somebody has to account for that… airlines have higher costs, they pass them on.” — Gilbert Ott (11:14)

3. Environmental Consequences

• Significant emission increases: Longer flight routes mean planes burn more fuel.
  • “According to our forecast, if the war in Ukraine will be continuing next year, then the emissions will be increased up to 20% in total.” — Dr. Victoria Ivanikova (07:20)
• 2010s–2020s trend: As airspace closures grow, this is the largest segregation of airspace since WWII, now affecting around 18 million square kilometers globally.
  • “The total area of closed or restricted in use airspace currently is around 18 million square kilometers, which is the biggest airspace segregation since the Second World War.” — Dr. Victoria Ivanikova (06:40)

4. Operational and Supply Chain Impacts

• Aircraft utilization challenges: Longer routes disrupt scheduling and aircraft turnaround, increasing stress on already strained supply chains (e.g., delayed aircraft deliveries such as the Boeing 777X).
  • “If you had a flight scheduled for 6am and that plane can’t get back until 8 or 9am now what do you do? And that gets into some of the supply chain issues airlines have dealt with...” — Gilbert Ott (10:15)
• Constraints on direct flights: For business travelers, particularly between Europe/North America and Asia, direct flights take significantly longer and are less available.

5. Planning and Risk Assessment: The Pilot’s View

• Flight planning under conflict: Modern software and intelligence sources inform pilots and airlines of restricted zones, with alternative routes pre-planned for safety.
  • “The states involved in the conflict have a duty to advise aviation authorities that it’s no longer either safe to route over the country or maybe to take just certain routes. … The flight plan that is produced for you… should keep you clear of all those conflict zones. But it will probably add time, it will add fuel...” — Mike Thrower (16:53)
• History of adaptation: Former pilot Mike Thrower speaks to the continuity of such challenges with anecdotes from the Vietnam War, 9/11, and natural events like volcanic eruptions.

6. Who Feels the Pain Most?

• Regional disparities: U.S., European, and Asian carriers on long haul routes between North America, Asia, and Europe are the most affected.
  • “The most affected airline is Finnair due to its hub located very close to the Russian border.” — Dr. Victoria Ivanikova (19:15)
• Operational costs: Depending on the airline and aircraft, operating costs have increased by 5–15% on the most affected long-hauls.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the scale of conflict-related airspace closures:
  “Areas affected by armed fighting have grown by 89% over the past five years, one and a half times the size of the European Union.”
  — Rick Kelsey (03:57)

• On profits and fare hikes:
  “Aviation has always been a business on the edge financially and as soon as extra cost is introduced, they have to pass it on to the consumer.”
  — Mike Thrower (17:57)

• Knock-on effects for frequent flyers:
  “An airline… would be less likely to make a seat available with points because there’s so much more pressure to create that profitability.”
  — Gilbert Ott (11:45)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• [01:18] — Episode intro, airspace shrinking, rising fares
• [02:24] — First-person account of polar re-routing (Tokyo–London)
• [03:13] — Hugo Brennan on conflict mapping and airspace closures
• [05:01] — Cost per minute increases explained, Lufthansa detours
• [06:40] — Dr. Victoria Ivanikova on historic segregation of airspace
• [07:20] — Environmental cost: predicted 20% increase in emissions
• [08:14] — Gilbert Ott on polar routes’ historic importance, current flight disruptions
• [11:14] — How rising costs affect ticket prices and reward travel
• [15:14] — Mike Thrower shares historical perspective on managing conflict zones
• [16:53] — How pilots and airlines use intelligence to adjust to evolving risks
• [18:28] — Expert summary of which airlines/regions are most impacted

Conclusion

Global conflict today has led to a historic reshaping of our skies: travel is longer, pricier, and less environmentally friendly. Airlines, travelers, and the environment absorb the brunt of these changes, with pilots and planners having to nimbly adapt to evolving risks. Despite advances in flight planning and technology, the fundamental reality holds—airlines operate on razor-thin margins, and shocks are quickly felt by passengers. As host Rick Kelsey concludes, while affordable fares may still exist, complex geopolitics mean your next trip could take you much farther afield than you expected.