Business Daily – The 'Dry January' Effect

BBC World Service – January 15, 2026
Host: Imran Rahman Jones

Overview

In this episode, Imran Rahman Jones explores the rapid growth of the alcohol-free drinks market, especially in the context of the 'Dry January' movement and broader, year-round shifts toward lower alcohol consumption. Through conversations with brewers, industry experts, business owners, and market strategists, the episode examines why alcohol-free drinks are booming, how industry players are navigating evolving consumer demands, and what the future looks like for the sector globally.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Rise of Alcohol-Free Beer

• On-Site Brewing:
  The episode opens at Jumpship Brewery outside Edinburgh, with founder Sonja Mitchell detailing the brewing process for alcohol-free beer and how its production and flavor development parallels traditional beer (01:21–02:14).
• Motivation for Alcohol-Free:
  Sonja Mitchell shares her journey: as a rugby-playing, pub-loving parent, she struggled with hangovers but didn’t want to miss out on the ritual and flavor of beer. This motivated her to create her own non-alcoholic craft beer (06:08–07:28).
• Quote:
  "I just didn't feel as sharp the next day. But I didn’t want to give up that moment of relaxation and everything else I love about beer … so I thought I’d have a go."
  — Sonja Mitchell ([06:20])

2. Market Growth & Global Trends

• Data on Declining Alcohol Consumption:
  Since 2013, World Health Organization data shows falling alcohol consumption. However, global alcohol sales have plateaued since 2019 (03:11).
• Market Expansion:
  Martin Lodewijks (IWSR) notes non-alcoholic growth started in Western markets but is now surging in emerging markets like India, China, South America, and Africa (03:59–04:24). Growth rates vary: US, UK, and Brazil saw 20%+ annual growth (2019–2024); Japan and France saw smaller increases (04:24).
• Small but Growing:
  Non-alcoholic products represent just about 1% of the total industry, but their sales are consistently growing at high single and double digits (04:47–04:59, 05:16).

3. Product Categories and Challenges

• Beer vs. Wine and Spirits:
  Johnny Forsyth (Mintel) highlights that non-alcoholic beer meets consumer desires for refreshment and relaxation, but replicating wine and spirits remains niche and difficult (05:27–05:58).
• Quote:
  "Non-alcoholic beer has got an incredibly prosperous future … Wine and spirits is completely different … it’s much harder to replicate the taste of them."
  — Johnny Forsyth ([05:27])

4. Industry Players—From Craft to Corporate

• Craft Leading the Way:
  Sonja Mitchell and Erica Doyle (Drink Dry, Dubai) discuss how small producers pioneered the field before big brands followed with their own alcohol-free products (08:02–08:29).
• Corporate Entry:
  Major players like Pernod Ricard, AB InBev, and Diageo now offer alcohol-free versions of their flagship products, helping the category scale and diversify offerings (08:05–08:22).
• Balance in the Market:
  "For it to really own the space, it needs money and it needs the big guys … and then you have a nice balance of mainstream commercial brands at a certain price point, but then you have a lot of premium on that."
  — Erica Doyle ([08:37])

5. Marketing, Consumer Segments & Hospitality

• Positioning as Lifestyle, Not Preaching:
  Erica Doyle explains her decision to market alcohol-free drinks as a premium lifestyle choice, not a "healthy" alternative or a product of moral/religious constraint (09:08–09:39).
• Dual Markets in Dubai:
  Drink Dry targets both Western expats familiar with alcohol and local non-drinkers unfamiliar with alcohol culture, requiring distinct marketing strategies (09:51–10:51).
• Hospitality Channels:
  Alcohol-free products supply both licensed venues (with alcohol) and "dry" venues (no alcohol allowed), leading to innovation in non-alcoholic offerings (10:51–11:18).

6. Global Social Shifts

• All-Year Moderation:
  The trend has moved from abstinence “campaigns” like Dry January or Sober October to a year-round moderation ethos (12:26–13:30).
  • "There seems to be less interest amongst consumers to just do that, 'I'm taking one month off'… moderation is extending across the year." — Martin Lodewijks ([12:53])
• Macro Drivers:
  Health awareness and government anti-alcohol campaigns drive the sector's broad growth, not just temporary "challenge" months (13:40).

7. Alcohol-Free Venues and Social Impact

• Eden Bar, Accra:
  John Asagonde runs West Africa’s first non-alcoholic bar, providing social experiences without alcohol (14:13–14:39).
  • "We wanted to still offer the same vibrant atmosphere … but without being pressured to have to drink or … engage in some of those excesses." — John Asagonde ([14:47])
• Changing Attitudes:
  He observes shifting perceptions, especially among young people, and highlights the need for increased awareness and education about non-alcoholic products (15:31–16:36).

8. Future Outlook: Growth and Innovation

• Still Early Days:
  Non-alcoholic beer could expand further; Germany is cited as an example, where it holds 8.5% of beer sales (17:01).
• Ready-to-Drink (RTD) Segment:
  Convenience is key: the trend is towards more RTD non-alcoholic options, including cans and small format bottles, especially in the Middle East (18:02–18:51).
• Quote:
  "The consumer is becoming more and more curious in the category … I would love to see more homegrown non alcoholic drinks brands coming from the Middle East." — Erica Doyle ([18:02])
• Brewery Expansion:
  Jumpship Brewery is expanding production, reflecting demand (18:54–19:07).
  • "I don't think I ever believed that the category would take off in such a short amount of time." — Sonja Mitchell ([19:07])

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Sonja Mitchell on non-alcoholic beer:
  "When you can give someone a really good alcohol-free beer and they realize that they're getting everything they love just not the alcohol ... there's a huge amount of discovery still to happen. The category is exploding." ([07:28])
• Erica Doyle on branding:
  "We made that decision very early on to make sure it's a consumer lifestyle brand, opposed to being very preachy … We wanted people to be excited to try these drinks because they seem fun." ([09:08])
• John Asagonde on building new social spaces:
  "We've been able to create that new trend for younger people to want to choose different and that's something I'm really proud about." ([15:31])

Timestamps for Key Segments

• [01:21–02:14]: Behind the scenes at Jumpship Brewery
• [03:11–04:24]: Global trends—declining alcohol consumption and shifting markets
• [05:27–05:58]: Category differentiation: beer vs. wine/spirits
• [06:08–07:28]: Sonja Mitchell's personal journey and brewing difficulties
• [08:02–09:08]: Craft producers vs. large corporations; market dynamics
• [09:08–10:51]: Marketing approaches and consumer segmentation in the Middle East
• [12:26–13:40]: Dry January vs. year-round moderation; macro drivers for growth
• [14:13–14:39]: Alcohol-free social venues in West Africa
• [17:01–18:51]: Future market growth and ready-to-drink product development
• [18:54–19:07]: Brewery expansion and optimistic outlook

Tone and Language

The episode maintains an inquisitive, conversational tone, balancing personal stories with business analysis. The voices represent optimism about the sector, practical challenges, and a sense of pioneering uncharted territory in the drinks industry.

This summary covers all essential content and insights from “The 'Dry January' Effect” episode of the BBC World Service’s Business Daily, omitting advertisements and non-content sections.