Business Daily – "What Next for Venezuela?" (Feb 12, 2026)

Overview

This episode of Business Daily explores the economic pivot in Venezuela following the removal of Nicolas Maduro. Host Rahul Tandon and guest Gideon Long (veteran Venezuela correspondent) revisit the country’s oil-centric economy, new opportunities for foreign investment, and the immense challenges that persist—from rebuilding critical infrastructure to political instability and the humanitarian aftermath. The episode provides insider analysis, first-hand stories, and expert opinions on the pressing question: With Maduro gone, what path is Venezuela taking to recover its shattered economy, and will oil alone be enough?

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Venezuela After Maduro: Setting the Stage (01:16–02:21)

• Dramatic Regime Change: The episode opens with the seismic removal of Nicolas Maduro (01:31), marked by U.S. military action and the subsequent installation of interim president Delcy Rodriguez.

• Hyperinflation Fallout: Gideon Long recounts the magnitude of Venezuela’s economic collapse under Maduro, with hyperinflation "compared to the Weimar Republic, Hungary, Greece" and scenes of desperation at the border (02:21).

  “The government lopped 11 zeros off the banknotes... a huge exodus from the country... Venezuelan women walking over that bridge bringing plastic bags with their own hair in them... to sell... for a few dollars.”
  —Gideon Long (02:21)

2. Oil Reform: A Historic Shift (03:29–05:13)

• Legal Overhaul: Interim President Delcy Rodriguez opens Venezuela's oil sector to direct foreign control, overturning Chavez-era policies (03:29).

  “This law will allow us to take a historic leap forward. It will allow Venezuela to convert those oil reserves into happiness with the Venezuelan people in charge of them.”
  —Delcy Rodriguez (03:29)

• Significance: Foreign companies can now manage fields independently, signaling a momentous (and controversial) departure from decades of resource nationalism.

3. American Involvement & Industry Skepticism (05:13–07:58)

• U.S. Investment Pledge: Maria Carina Machado touts a deal for $100 billion in rebuilding oil infrastructure and up to 50m barrels of oil destined for U.S. refineries (05:26).

• Tempered Optimism: Despite upbeat rhetoric, most U.S. oil majors remain cautious, with only Chevron actively engaged during the sanctions period. Exxon’s CEO calls Venezuela "uninvestable" (06:52).

  “To get back up to 3 million barrels a day... it will take more than a decade and it will cost $180 billion. Venezuelan crude oil is heavy... it’s not the best quality... pretty difficult area to operate in.”
  —Gideon Long (07:34)

4. The Crucial Question: Will Venezuelans Return? (08:33–09:29)

• Political Stability as a Magnet for Returnees: The program asks when—and if—millions of Venezuelan exiles will come home.

• Delcy Rodriguez’s Credentials: While she has some industry background, Gideon Long notes her experience is limited and mostly political (09:03).

5. The Machado Factor and the U.S. Role (09:29–10:43)

• Opposition Voice: Nobel laureate Maria Carina Machado questions Delcy Rodriguez’s political affiliations and expresses confidence in an eventual “orderly transition” to a pro-U.S. government (09:46).

  “I am profoundly confident that we will have an orderly transition. The result... will be a proud Venezuela who's going to be the best ally the United States has ever had in the Americas.”
  —Maria Carina Machado (09:46)

• Investor Wait-and-See: Uncertainty remains. International oil boards are interested but hesitant given the political flux.

  “Let’s wait a little bit longer and see how the political situation unfolds.”
  —Rahul Tandon (10:16)

6. Sanctions, Smuggling & Security (10:43–12:03)

• Oil Export Chokepoints: U.S. Defense Secretary Peter Hegseth describes ongoing blockades and the policing of "stateless vessels" trying to move Venezuelan oil illegally (11:06).

  “The oil blockade, the quarantine of oil out of sanctioned or stateless vessels continues... our military is prepared to continue this.”
  —Peter Hegseth (11:06)

• Illicit Flow: Despite sanctions, Venezuela has been exporting oil covertly; e.g., to Cuba, often via ships with transponders off.

7. Market Realities—and Limits (12:03–13:31)

• Competition for Investment: U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio underscores that global energy firms need legal certainty and profit to risk investing in Venezuela, else they’ll turn to places like Guyana (12:25).

• Diminished Strategic Value: The world, and especially the U.S., no longer depend on Venezuelan oil as before. Oil demand is down and prices hover around $60/barrel (13:11).

  “The world doesn’t need Venezuelan oil to quite the same extent that it used to.”
  —Gideon Long (12:53)

8. Life for Ordinary Venezuelans & Barriers to Recovery (13:31–15:47)

• Marginal Improvements, Staggering Challenges: The economy has seen some recovery since its lowest point, with the scrapping of exchange controls and modest dollarization, but inflation remains world-topping (~270%) and wages are desperately low.

  Quotes from residents:

  “The amount you get paid, it's not enough to buy the things you need.”
  —Barbara, Tour Operator (14:57)

  “2025 has been the worst financial year of my life.”
  —Maria Carina Machado (15:09)

9. Diversification: Beyond Oil (15:47–17:18)

• Ricardo Haussmann’s Vision: Harvard economist and former minister urges Venezuela to leverage its land, minerals, hydropower, and educated diaspora for a broader recovery, not just oil.

  “We are never going to be as rich as we were in the past if we are just going to rely on oil... there’s a lot of potential to do many things.”
  —Ricardo Haussmann (16:07)

• Missed Industries: Once-strong sectors (rice, cacao, textiles, chemicals) could be revived with the right policies.

• Tourism as a Hopeful Frontier: Both experts and exiled Venezuelans recall the country’s stunning national parks and biodiversity.

  “I help people go on beautiful hikes in Italy, but I would love to have them go to Merida... that's the beauty that we have... so many of us want to go back.”
  —Barbara, Tour Operator (17:40)

• Barriers Persist: Travel advisories remain due to political instability.

10. Summary Outlook: Change Amidst Caution (19:02–19:50)

• Early Days, Incomplete Transition: While policy changes open the door for foreign investment and growth, the panel agrees Venezuela’s oil sector—and broader economy—faces enormous hurdles.

  “We’re still a long way off a situation where the likes of Exxon or Repsol are actually going in and operating in Venezuela... it's going to be a long, long time before the Venezuelan oil industry recovers and a long time before the country manages to diversify.”
  —Gideon Long (19:26)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Gideon Long on economic collapse:
  “Living in Colombia, I saw... over a million Venezuelans flooded into Colombia... women walking over that bridge... bringing plastic bags with their own hair...” (02:21)

• Delcy Rodriguez on ambitious reform:
  “What good is it if we have the largest reserves on the planet, if we cannot turn them into salaries, into hospitals, into food, into education?” (03:29)

• Maria Carina Machado hopes for a U.S.-aligned Venezuela:
  “I am profoundly confident that we will have an orderly transition.” (09:46)

• Ricardo Haussmann on economic potential:
  “We have diaspora. It's the most educated migrant group in the US, so there's a lot of potential.” (16:07)

• Barbara on the desire for return:
  “I dream of going back to the very beautiful places that Venezuela has. ...that’s the beauty that we have. Not just places, but people.” (17:40)

Timestamps for Key Segments

| Timestamp | Segment Description | |------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 01:16 | Introduction and main question: Is Venezuela’s oil flowing again? | | 02:21 | Gideon Long details Venezuela’s collapse and mass migration | | 03:29 | Delcy Rodriguez announces oil sector reform | | 04:56 | Analysis on shift from state control to foreign participation | | 06:03 | US pledges (Trump/Machado), Chevron’s continued involvement | | 07:34 | The scale of Venezuela’s oil sector challenge | | 09:46 | Maria Carina Machado on Rodriguez, transition hopes | | 11:06 | US Defense Secretary on oil smuggling and blockades | | 12:25 | Marco Rubio on legal certainty and investment competition | | 13:52 | Venezuela’s muted economic improvement, continued hardship | | 14:57 | Voices from inside Venezuela | | 16:07 | Ricardo Haussmann on need for diversification | | 17:40 | Barbara (tour operator) dreams of return and tourism potential | | 19:26 | Gideon Long’s summary: positive reform, but recovery will be slow |

Final Takeaways

• Venezuela stands at a crossroads: vital legal reforms aim to revive the oil industry, but structural, political, and global obstacles remain formidable.
• Widespread hardship persists; most improvements are nascent and not yet felt by ordinary people.
• Experts insist the future will require diversification beyond oil—leveraging agriculture, mining, hydropower, and potentially tourism, powered by a motivated diaspora.
• Risk and instability temper investor enthusiasm, and large-scale repatriation or industry recovery remains, for now, a distant promise.

Tone: Cautiously hopeful, realistic, human-centered. The complexity and pathos of Venezuela’s crisis—and the fragile shoots of recovery—come through clearly in both expert analysis and first-hand testimony.