Podcast Summary: The State of the Furniture Industry Today

Business of Home Podcast, host Dennis Scully with guest Alex Shuford (Rock House Farm)
September 8, 2025

Episode Overview

In this episode, host Dennis Scully welcomes Alex Shuford, CEO of Rock House Farm, for his annual industry check-in. Together, they unpack the current turbulence in the furniture sector—tariffs, pricing, retailer struggles, and shifting demand. Shuford, a fourth-generation industry leader and the steward of several storied brands (Century, Hancock & Moore, Hickory Chair, Highland House, and more), provides a candid, nuanced view on why even domestic makers aren’t immune to global policy shocks, what designers should expect at the upcoming High Point Market, and why he’s optimistic about innovation and new retail experiments like Paragould.

The conversation is rich with historical perspective, economic realism, and gentle humor—illustrating both the fragility and resilience of the American furniture industry in an era of uncertainty.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Tariff Instability and Industry Disruption

[03:00-07:55]

• Unpredictable Policy Environment:
  Shuford highlights the chaos in forecasting and pricing due to fast-changing tariff rules. Budgeting, product development, and supplier planning are all on shaky ground.

  “We don't have stability on the playing field… How do you budget for 2026? How do you price market samples?... Will it go to zero? Or get superseded by an across-the-board furniture tariff?” — Alex Shuford [03:00]

• Tariff Impact—Even for U.S. Manufacturers:
  Although Rock House Farm manufactures 80% of its products domestically, large tariffs have negative ripple effects on import partners, prices, and retail distribution, threatening the ecosystem’s health.

  “We are decidedly against large punitive tariffs… The unintended consequences are, it puts a lot of pressure on our distribution network, our retailers, etc.” — Alex Shuford [04:06]

  Memorable analogy: Tariff shocks as climate change for the industry:

  “If you make small changes, the ecosystem can adjust... but if you make it 150 degrees overnight, some species don’t survive.” [06:52]

• Tariffs as “Disguised Taxes”:
  Shuford notes tariffs functionally act as a federal sales tax and are politically attractive as a revenue tool, but ultimately raise costs for everyone.

  “You’ve got a federal sales tax masquerading as a tariff... The American consumer, however you want to slice it, is going to end up paying for this.” [04:47]

2. A Fragile Retail Landscape

[07:55-15:58]

• Accelerated Shrinkage:
  Centenarian stores are shuttering not just from lost business but also from attractive real estate values and owner fatigue.

  “We continue to see 80, 90, 100-year-old businesses suddenly say we can't do this anymore.” — Dennis Scully [08:14]

• Demand Was Pulled Forward—Now Comes the Rain Shadow:
  COVID’s home boom shifted years of project demand into a short period, creating a lull now exacerbated by housing costs and interest rates.

  “We knew that was going to last for a period of time... I think as we got into 2023, 2024... there was less traffic.” — Shuford [09:01]
  “It was great—should’ve been the best time of my career. It was really difficult... almost every day I wished it would slow down and end.” [09:39]

• Tariff “Black Swans” as Recurring Threats:
  Furniture faces cyclical, unpredictable shocks—financial crises, COVID, and now, potentially devastating furniture-specific tariffs.

  “Every five or six years... something trips us up... Now we’re onto what I think could be a tariff-caused industry-specific problem.” [12:02]

3. Paralysis and Lost Time in the Industry

[15:58-19:09]

• The “Mental Tax”:
  Uncertainty forces leaders to spend daunting amounts of time on pricing models, legal interpretation, and stalling product development.

  “There’s a mental tax... You’re so distracted thinking about pricing, the impact, having these conversations...” — Dennis Scully [15:58] “Somebody just turned it [the boiling pot] to high, and we’re all trying to figure out how to jump out of the pot together.” — Shuford [16:29]

• Long-Term Talent Shortages:
  Returning case goods manufacturing to the U.S. is practically impossible in the short term, given the decades-long disappearance of woodworking talent.

  “Where are you going to go find 5,000 woodworkers? Great—start training them. They’ll be ready to go in ten years.” [17:31]

4. Price Volatility and Its Effects

[23:34-30:03]

• Dramatic Cost Increases:
  Rock House Farm’s annual tariffs jumped from below $300,000 to a projected $4 million. This has forced multiple price recalculations and the end to printed price lists.

  “Last year our tariff bill was less than $300,000… This year… a $4 million run rate... You start to think, ‘Whoa, we weren’t planning for a multimillion-dollar hole.’” — Shuford [23:53]

• Component Complexity:
  Pricing furniture with imported (and differently-tariffed) components is labor-intensive, pulling skilled staff away from core innovation work.

  “We’re taking three, four people in our engineering and costing team and locking them in a room with granola bars and bottled water.” [27:59]

5. Innovation, Marketing, and the Role of Value

[30:03-36:56]

• Marketing Must Step Up:
  If higher prices are here to stay, the industry must learn from luxury brands about conveying value beyond materials and labor.

  “It amazes me that I can make a four-piece leather sectional that costs about half as much as a famous handbag that starts with a B...” — Shuford [31:24]

• Product Mix Shifts:
  Complex, labor-intensive items may best remain imported, while simpler, low-labor items could “reshore” if tariffs rise.

  “The more complicated a piece is... the more protected that piece is. In a tariff world, if you’re making a simple piece of furniture... the more possible it will be to have it made in the U.S.” [34:45]

• Designers’ Core Value Stays Human:
  Amidst all this, what clients really pay for is a designer’s taste, judgment, and project management—not their ability to draw renderings.

  “They’re hiring you because you know which of the 200 generated rooms is tasteful... The actual rendering is the least valuable thing you do.” [52:12]

6. Changing Consumer Psychology & “Paper Wealth”

[37:26-45:34]

• Why Isn’t the Sky Falling Yet?
  High-end, design-driven business is still strong—likely due to “flight to quality” and stock market wealth buoying the top 5% of consumers.

  “Designers… are inoculated a bit from the immediacy of any sudden change... their projects take a long time.” [37:31] “When you’re worried, you go to someone you trust.” [38:50]

• Price Anchoring and Stability Needed:
  Consumers don’t mind high prices if they’re stable, but changing expectations create hesitation and uncertainty.

  “It’s the fear of a mistake—that’s what’s really got the consumer discombobulated.” [43:52]

7. The Housing & Labor Crunch

[45:34-53:21]

• Housing Affordability as an Existential Threat:
  Without movement on housing (supply, affordability), a generation will delay buying “investment-grade” furniture.

  “If an entire generation grows up thinking homeownership is beyond their reach... they’ll keep their spend at the lowest possible level and stay disposable.” — Shuford [46:38]

• The Risk of AI-Driven Job Loss:
  Entry-level, skilled (but unexperienced) employees—whether in furniture or interior design—face a threat from automation, making purposeful training and hiring crucial.

  “GPT is really good at writing me a letter. I’m not sure it’s going to figure out how to sew a multi-base sofa...” [49:47] “We’ll have to be very thoughtful about making sure we pull in young talent.” [52:41]

8. Retail Innovation: Vegas Market, Paragould, and the Future

[54:12-63:56]

• Multi-Brand Showrooms and Brand Awareness:
  Shows like Vegas Market let Rock House educate designers (especially West Coast) about their portfolio and enable cross-brand logistics.

  “We are shocked how many designers... don’t even know [all] our brands.” [54:50]

• Excitement Around Paragould:
  Shuford is bullish on Paragould’s experiment—a multi-store, branded approach that could counter vertically integrated chains.

  “They’ve got a shot at it... They’re competing the right way... it’s good for the ecosystem.” [58:58]

• Retail Survival Requires Scale or Boutique Precision:
  Middle-market retailers, neither dominant nor boutique, struggle most in the current landscape.

  “The hardest place to be is in the middle where you don’t dominate your market area, or have hip, tight-cured spaces...” [62:11]

9. M&A and Supplier Ecosystem Fragility

[63:56-68:03]

• Acquisition Appetite Remains, but with Caution:
  Shuford says Rock House would consider select acquisitions, but strives to steward brands and people for the long term, not flip or strip companies.

  “If the right thing presented itself, we’d be very interested... But we only know how to run what we run.” [64:20] “My greatest fear is… we lose suppliers in the Philippines, Indonesia, Vietnam—fundamental to the industry, but invisible to most designers.” [66:30]

10. Advice to Designers Attending High Point Market

[69:20-79:45]

• Don’t Fixate on Short-Term Price Swings:
  Price volatility (+20% to -5% swings) may not materially change project decisions—focus on product merit and fit.

  “Try not to get overly focused on the price of a thing... The product is still got to be judged on its merits as a design item...” [70:20]

• Have Honest Supplier Conversations:
  It’s legitimate to inquire about your supplier’s financial health—protect your clients (via purchasing timing or payment methods) where possible.

  “If I’m at the trade show and about to give you business, I can absolutely pull the sales manager over and say, ‘Are you financially healthy?’” [71:30]

• Help Clients Adjust to the New Reality:
  Designers must use empathy and skill to help clients anchor new expectations for project budgets in a sharply inflated world.

  “Wise designers... get their client to expand their budget so they end up happier in the end.” [77:38]

• The Human Value in a Digital Age:
  Ultimately, the industry’s resilience is in its relationships and creativity—market is a collective “group hug.”

  “High Point, at its root, is a collective hug. We all come so we can have a group hug together.” — Shuford [79:45]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Stability as Oxygen:
  “We need the rules to stabilize. We can’t have them changing constantly—forces paralysis on decision makers like me.” — Shuford [19:04]

• On Retooling Manufacturing:
  “Start training them [woodworkers]. They’ll be ready in 10 years.” [17:34]

• On Pricing Chaos:
  “If you built your business on printing price lists, you should move out of buggy whips and check this internal combustion engine thing because I think it’s got a future.” [26:21]

• On Furniture’s Value Perception vs. Fashion:
  “I can make a four-piece leather sectional that costs half a famous handbag that starts with B… Maybe I should rename my sectional the Barkin.” [31:24]

• On Craftsmanship Loss:
  “When factories in Vietnam lose jobs, that’s a sad loss of skill and a real impact to people’s lives… They’re in our industry, and we depend on them.” [68:14]

• On Designers’ Essential Role:
  “The rendering of the room is the least valuable thing you do. It’s your taste, judgment, and project execution.” [52:12]

• On High Point Market:
  “High Point, at its root, is a collective hug… We all come… for a group hug together.” [79:45]

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Tariff Instability & Industry Impact: 03:00-07:55
• Retailer Fragility & COVID Demand Shift: 07:55-15:58
• Pricing Chaos, Printing, and Surcharges: 23:34-27:02
• Component Complexity in Tariffs: 27:59-30:03
• Future of Manufacturing & Labor: 17:31, 34:45
• Innovation and Value Perception: 30:03-36:56
• Consumer Confidence, “Paper Wealth”: 37:26-45:34
• Housing & Generation Rent: 45:34-47:13
• AI and Entry-Level Job Risk: 49:47-53:21
• Multi-Brand Showrooms, Paragould, Retail Models: 54:12-62:11
• Designer Guidance for Market: 69:20-79:16

Takeaways for Listeners

• The industry is facing unprecedented unpredictability, especially from tariffs. Even domestic manufacturers bear collateral damage from shocks to their ecosystem.
• Designers remain the core growth channel and source of resilience—serving discerning clients, adapting to pricing chaos, and upholding tastes and project execution.
• Retail is bifurcating—either scale up, or curate down. Middle-market models are in the most danger.
• For designers: Focus on product quality, supplier stability, and helping clients re-anchor expectations. Don’t get lost in the churn of price fluctuations.
• The true differentiator in design remains human judgment, taste, and relationships.

For those attending High Point or navigating the tumult of 2025, this episode offers a compass for decision-making, resilience, and optimism despite the turbulence.