
Host Dennis Scully and BOH executive editor Fred Nicolaus discuss the biggest news in the design world. Later, Tim and Bo Stump of M&A advisory firm Stump and Company join the show to talk about the state of the furniture industry
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Dennis Scully
This is Business of Home. I'm Dennis Scully, and welcome to the Thursday Show. Later on, I'll be talking to Tim and Bo Stump about the state of the furniture industry. But first we're going to catch up on the news, including the latest on tariffs, positive results from home retailers, and a look at whether designers can be sued for posting to Instagram. To do all that, I'm joined by Business of Home's executive editor, Fred Nicholas. Hi, Fred.
Fred Nikolaus
Hi, Dennis. How's it going?
Dennis Scully
Well, pretty good. How are you doing?
Fred Nikolaus
I'm doing good. Listeners may not, may not care, but we've been through a technical ordeal getting this podcast together. So neither rain, nor snow, nor sleet, nor cable outages in your area will prevent us from doing the Thursday show.
Dennis Scully
We're on walkie talkies at the moment, but I'm sure it's going to come off great.
Fred Nikolaus
Yes. Did you have a good week?
Dennis Scully
Yes. Yes, indeed. You think it's summertime and there's not a lot going on, but it's actually been quite a busy time in the home world.
Fred Nikolaus
I know everybody's got to calm down. Stop throwing news at us. I'm supposed to be phoning it in at this point of the summer, but people have been throwing a lot of news at me recently. Speaking of, we actually have a little bit of real estate news that we're going to get to at the very, very end of the show. Now, listeners may not know, but you and I actually come back at the very, very end after you're done with the interview on this podcast and do a little Caught My Eye segment where we like one or two fun things going on in the industry that caught our eye. And I don't know if everybody knows that. So I'm just plugging it now and saying that there's a very specific worried.
Dennis Scully
People aren't listening to the end of the show. I'm sure they know. I'm sure they're staying till the end.
Fred Nikolaus
Well, just in case for the two or three of you who don't stick around, there's an interesting little real estate news we're going to talk about at the very end. But in the meantime, let's look back on Monday's episode of Conversation with designer Susan Ferrier. Really interesting one.
Dennis Scully
An interesting conversation, yes, on so many levels. And we focus a little bit on the early career that she had and the many things that she tried and in her mind didn't succeed at before she got to design. But just as interesting was the conversation around the success that she found working for, as we pointed out in the conversation, somebody else's firm for a long time, and then the agonizing decision to go out on her own. So what jumped out at you?
Fred Nikolaus
Well, yes, what you're referring to and when you're talking about her early job is that she worked at a fertility clinic, which is not the typical entree into the interior design industry. But what was fascinating about it is that we always talk about, oh, you should be in a service industry. You should be a waiter before you become a designer. The way she explained it, it was like, yes, this is an ideal job to have because it's these complicated, big decisions. They're emotional, there's a lot of money involved. That. That sounds very much like, you know, a design project. Yeah. What jumped out to me, actually, was that she's using AI. I really enjoyed that. I didn't see it coming. You know, we have a lot of conversations, you and I, about AI, but I'm always sort of wondering, like, okay, are really 30% of designers using it, as Houzz claims? But, you know, Susan was using it to write emails. I think that's what a lot of designers are using it for. She's been in the industry a long time, but she's, you know, a late bloomer who tries to. Tries things and keeps a lot of young people in her firm. And I assume they were pitching her on ChatGPT and she's using AI. So if it's good enough for Susan Ferrier, it's got to be good enough for you.
Dennis Scully
I also think it was interesting that she referenced a quote from her friend and former guest on the show, Suzanne Kessler, who talked about being capable. And I think that so often when we talk to designers, you get the sense that they could have gone on and done any number of different kinds of jobs, because often designers are just so capable. In the case of Susan Ferrier, she was often working at a place where she would come on to answer the phones or be the assistant, and suddenly, within months, she was running the place. And often when I'm talking to designers, I get the feeling that they very much could be running the place in any number of organizations. So interesting. And it was really an enjoyable conversation. I hope that people get a lot out of it and tune in for that. In the meantime, we're gonna take a quick break, and then we'll get into the news. This podcast is sponsored by Ernesta. Instantly transform your client's home and deliver on their personal vision. With Ernesta's high quality custom size rugs. Featuring a wide selection of premium materials and timeless designs. Each of Ernesta's custom size rugs is cut to order and delivered in as little as two to four weeks. And with Ernesta's exclusive trade member benefits, you get exclusive discounts, dedicated support and unlimited samples. To learn more about Ernesta's trade program, visit ernesta.com boh and now on with the show. And we're back. First up, Fred, of course, tariffs we.
Fred Nikolaus
Got out of it. We weaseled out of tariffs last week.
Dennis Scully
One week we tried to take a break.
Fred Nikolaus
Exactly. President Donald Trump's sweeping new set of tariffs took effect last Thursday. After months of on again, off again delays, we are entering a new era of tariffs here. How do you feel, Dennis, now that we're here?
Dennis Scully
Well, this is supposed to be the era of the real numbers. Does this feel dramatically different to you?
Fred Nikolaus
Well, it's interesting cause like the conversation always seems to be the same. Right? Even the conversation we have on the show, it's, oh, that's crazy. And probably people will raise prices. But what has happened before is that we've always said like, oh, if that happens, that will be crazy. If they actually raise tariffs to 50% on the European Union, that would be crazy because so much of the tariffs that have been talked about over the summer were threats or ideas, but they didn't actually go into effect now. The reason why now is different is that last Thursday a lot of them actually did go into effect. So this went from being I am going to do this to that money is getting charged at the port. It's the 20% on Vietnam, it's the 15% on the EU. It's a host of tariffs on countries all over the world. So we've kind of moved out of the hypothetical tariff era into the tariff realness. And I think that's sort of the key distinction here.
Dennis Scully
Well, and that's why, I mean, and we'll get into this throughout the show, but that's why it's honestly been so hard to figure out the impact that all of this is having because we haven't really gotten right to the real numbers. And as you say, people paying whatever tariffs they're paying at the ports and in some cases with countries that we thought might slip through without too much of a tariff. Some really meaningful numbers now. Yes.
Fred Nikolaus
Yeah. And I mean, I think the exception to this up until now was China. Right. Because the tariffs on China went into effect immediately and people had to deal with that. And that of course, was a big conversation that we certainly had at the time and probably we'll find cause to revisit again in the not too distant future. But now, now, specifically, Vietnam, I think, is one of the biggest ones because of course, so much of furniture and decor production left China during Trump's first presidency to go to Vietnam to avoid the tariffs then. And so you end up with so much production in Vietnam. And there was a lot of what's going to happen there? What's the number going to be? We talked a few weeks ago about how they finally landed on 20%, which was a number that, I don't know, landed with a kind of a grumbling acceptance with a lot of people in the industry. And now it's actually being charged. And so we're going to see how companies are going to react. I think what we are going to see going forward in this new tariff reality is that companies that talked about we're going to hold off on raising rates because we care about our customers. I'm not saying they didn't care about their customers, but now that they actually have to pay these numbers and pay quite a high number, I just think holding out to not raising prices is going to end. The stockpiled goods are running out. The idea of leaning on your factory to cut down the margins only goes so far. 20% is not a number that any company can comfortably absorb. So I think if one of your vendors did not raise prices already and they import from Vietnam, they're going to do it now. But maybe I'm wrong. What do you think, Dennis?
Dennis Scully
No, I'm inclined to agree with you and the conversations that I've had. It sounds as if everyone has been trying to mutually get through this. So the exporter has been trying to absorb some of it, the importer has been trying to absorb another part of it, and then reluctantly, they've been passing on whatever small price increase they've needed to pass on. And a lot of designers send me notes saying, well, they're not so small. In many cases they feel quite meaningful. But I agree with you that I think more price increases are coming, which is why I think we've been a little premature in getting excited about the inflation numbers because I think to your point, we did see a lot of pull forward, but now we're going to see, particularly I think, in the back half of this year, we're going to see working through that inventory and much higher imported goods prices in general. And so I think when you go to some of the shows in the fall, I think you're going to see much higher prices than I think people might have been anticipating. What do you think?
Fred Nikolaus
Yeah, I mean, I love the concept. If we got excited too early about inflation numbers, it takes a special kind of nerd to get excited about inflation numbers. And we are those nerds. Yeah, I think that's right. Frankly, I think there'll be some companies who can maybe hold out a little bit longer, but I think that's just the reality of it. I think another weird component of this that we don't talk about that much is another nerdy subject, which is cash flow. I think one of the sort of underappreciated aspects of this is that you actually do have to pay the tariff. So if you're importing like 100,000 worth dollars worth of stuff from Vietnam, you have to pay $20,000 upfront just to get it into the country. And I think that even if you raise prices and pay yourself back for that 20 grand, you have to have it at the beginning of the transaction. And I think that's going to put a strain on some of the smaller players in the industry and there's going to be all kinds of weird financing agreements. I'm sure there's a lot of bankers who are offering deals to make this kind of thing work. But I do think that this news is not necessarily good for anyone who imports from Vietnam. But I think it's like maybe less of a bad thing for the bigger players. What do you think?
Dennis Scully
I think you're absolutely right that the number is very meaningful that you suddenly have to come up with in addition to whatever you thought you were paying for that container arriving. It does require a huge adjustment in how you're running your business, which is a conversation we'll get into a little bit more when we talk about some of the other things coming up in the show and how people have been scurrying to both find different importers to work with and really juggle a lot of their supply chain. But it's a more challenging time than ever from that perspective.
Fred Nikolaus
Yeah. And I think we should just also quickly break out India because it's a little bit different than all the other countries we've talked about so far. So last week India got a 25% tariff, which in itself was a big surprise. I remember having a lot of conversations with people at the beginning of this whole tariff thing, and person after person would say, well, you know, the real enemy here is China. India's going to be okay. Trump and Modi go golfing together or Whatever. Prime Minister Narendra Modi. And so, you know, to end up here three months later with a 25% tariff which is high on Indian imports is crazy. And then of course there's this promise that the 25% is going to go up to 50% at the end of the month because India apparently buys a lot of oil from Russia. And so you have a lot of people who import fabrics from India, like watching the Putin Trump discuss like a hawk, which is so weird when you think about I'm going to start a hand blocked textile importing company. To think that here you are looking at what Vladimir Putin is up to and how that matters to you is kind of wild. But the India tariffs really took a lot of people by surprise and that's an immediate impact for a lot of people in our neck of the woods.
Dennis Scully
It's a huge part of the product offering that is coming and a huge part of the product offering at any major market that you visit. Again, thinking about the fall, if those numbers don't come down in a meaningful way, there's going to be some very unpleasant surprises waiting for people when they see what some of the pricing is going to look like from again, some of their very big suppliers. So to your point, we're certainly hoping for the best for this meeting in Alaska. Who knew that India would also be a thought in all of that? Moving on though, we've got to talk about the home retailers. Major furniture brands like Our House and Ethan Allen reported better than expected expected financial results for the last quarter. The question is, could this mark the start of a rebound? What do you think, Fred?
Fred Nikolaus
Well, our retail columnist Warren Shulberg says no. Warren, listeners of the show might remember he's our columnist who writes about the retail world and he did a great roundup of all these big publicly traded home companies. It was really surprising because housing is still 30, 50 year lows and tariffs were expected to impact consumer confidence. And consumer confidence wasn't great to begin with. If you look at those numbers and you think, well, how good is a company like our House going to do this quarter? The assumption was it's going to do poorly. In fact, our House had a great quarter, a record breaking quarter for them. Ethan Allen had maybe not as much of a record breaker, but a decent quarter. And as we talked about last week, Wayfair is making money again. It really is. From outward perspective, it's boom time times for these companies. But Warren's thesis is that this is kind of maybe a blip and that this is maybe Consumers sort of jumping on the perception that tariffs are going to raise prices, so they rush out and buy stuff before the tariffs go into effect. But Warren was speculating there. I don't think he would say he's definitively right about that. I was really surprised by all these numbers. I thought Wayfair would be the only one, but everybody's doing great. What do you think?
Dennis Scully
Well, I mean, I think as we've talked about, first of all, we're coming off of a low bar. And in the case of our house, house, they had had some stumbles, they had had some struggles, and they acknowledged that there were some execution issues that they wanted to work on and try and improve. And it sounds like this quarter they did improve on them in a meaningful way. And they've got some new introductions in the bath category, and they've got some other things to talk about. So this was a surprisingly strong number, up more than 15% for them. But it sounded like there were plenty of reasons that they could. Could point to that weren't related to the housing market or tariffs, fortunately. But I agree that it's been surprising to see strong numbers from all of the companies that Warren pointed out in his piece, including Ethan Allen, including our house and Wayfair, as we've talked about. And I think that people have been, again, incredibly creative and inventive about how they've managed to navigate the tariffs issue and just the confusion that's out there because of tariffs.
Fred Nikolaus
Yeah, I was kind of impressed, like our house said, that the tariffs would only have, like, a $12 million impact on their business over the year, which, I mean, $12 million is a lot of money, but that's not a lot in terms of the. The overall revenue that our house brings in. I don't know if that'll hold out over the course of the full year, but that was certainly interesting to me. I agree. People have been finding ways to deal with it and not let it drag their business down. It's tough. We in the cynical media can sometimes be a little bit too inclined towards seeing the cloudy side of the street, but people still do need to buy furniture. I think our house CEO, John Reed, was talking about how the market conditions were choppy, is up and down a little bit just because of the very confusing economic landscape. But even up and down has ups in it. And I think that this was an up for a lot of people in a surprising way, just to home in on our house a little bit. I know you went and visited their location recently near your house. What's your take on what they're up to these days?
Dennis Scully
Yeah, coming off of the earnings report and hearing that they had some stronger numbers, I thought I'd stop by the Westchester Mall and visit the R house there, which is quite an impressive one. What's very clear is that our house has a distinctive voice. They've found their separation from RH and some of their other competitors and I think they've got a strong presentation despite everything that. I hear about some of the struggles with their trade program from designers. But I know that they've made a recent hire there so hopefully they'll get get that resolved. But it's easy to see where our house can find its own path.
Fred Nikolaus
Yeah, they just hired Jill John of Williams Sonoma fame to head up the trade program. So we'll see if they make some changes there. Yeah, it was interesting. Well first of all, excellent on the ground reporting. I hope that they knew they had the Thursday show and BoH podcast host in their midst. As we're recording this just today, a lot of home industry stocks have really popped and it seems like the market investors rather have assumed that what's going to happen in September is that Jerome Powell, chairman of the Fed is going to cut interest rates which are going to bring mortgage rates down, which is going to restart housing and everyone's going to go rushing in to buy all those our house patterns and all the West Elm stuff and everything and we're going to enter happy times again. I don't know what's your make of that very complicated situation, Dennis.
Dennis Scully
It's interesting it's all moving so quickly. Fred, our interview with the stumps that were going to hear later. We recorded that interview on Monday and already here it is Wednesday. I feel like so much has changed. But to your point what has changed quite dramatically is the inflation numbers came out. They were to many people a little bit lower than some people were worried they might be. Combine that with last Friday's employment numbers which were also weaker than people thought they would be. It seems to have given the all clear in market participants minds to not only lower rates in September, which now the market has priced in almost as a guarantee despite what Jerome Powell indicated at the last meeting about how he's feeling. But the market has gone on to now imagine that we're going to have multiple rate cuts, three rate cuts before the end of the year and perhaps more coming after that. So the market has shifted from oh let's not worry so much about tariffs because good news, we're going to have rate cuts in several of them. And because the home furnishings industry is what we call very interest rate sensitive, that group is moving quite a bit and no surprise there. So what we're seeing, I mean, we were talking earlier, could this be signs of a turnaround? This could certainly help quite a bit if the perception is that rate cuts are here to come to the rescue of the home furnishings retailers. And as we say, the stocks are moving quite a bit in the past couple of days. Another strong day to day.
Fred Nikolaus
Yeah, I completely agreed on the analysis. It's tough. It's easy to be cynical and say, oh, once the tariffs really kick in, everything's going to tank and we're going to be down in the doldrums again. That is the tendency of we cynical journalists here in the media. So I'm just going to say I hope that happens. I do hope there is a rate cut and I hope it restarts the housing market because something has to happen. It's been in the doldrums for so long. And so I'm hopeful that all of this stock market optimism comes true. And I also hope it filters down for designers. I know that many designers I've spoken with recently have said it's kind of choppy. There are ups and downs, much like there are for our house. And I'm sure everyone wants housing to get restarted again. So there's a lot more great projects in the pipeline. So let's knock on wood for that one.
Dennis Scully
Absolutely. As we've been talking about with tariffs, we've been longing for some clarity. We have have more clarity. We'll see if that makes a meaningful impact and we'll see if prices stabilize here. And to your point, we need the housing market. This entire industry needs the housing market to come back in a big way. So let's hope that it will. Stay tuned for more on that. In the meantime, let's talk about photography, Fred?
Fred Nikolaus
Absolutely. This week, boh's managing editor, Haley Chouinard, wrote about how photo rights lawsuits are making brands and designers wary of what they post on Instagram. Are you wary of what you post on Instagram, Dennis? I'm gonna say not based on your general output.
Dennis Scully
Well, I actually have a lot of fun with Instagram, so I'm less wary about it. But I think it's interesting to discuss this whole new dimension and the challenge that we're gonna talk about that designers and others might be facing posting images that they perhaps don't have all the rights to that they thought they might.
Fred Nikolaus
Yeah, just to sort of briefly explain what sort of got us into this. So this has been like an ongoing discussion that we've actually had on the show before. But there's often this confusion in the design industry where a designer gets photographs taken of their project. And there's a big open question around, well, who owns that photo? Can a brand who. Whose product is featured in that image just post it on their Instagram or post it on their website? I think for a long time, most people just sort of said, sure, why not just tag the photographer, it's fine. But that kind of runs contrary to the law, I guess, is the best way to describe it. And in most cases, the photographer does own the copyright of the image that they took. And there's this sort of inherent tension. We've talked about that before, but what we're kind of reporting on recently is that there are actually most of the lawsuits before were maybe like, if a brand made an advertisement with a designer's project and didn't get permission. But now there are definitely examples of lawsuits brought against. Usually it's like a brand just for posting a designer project on Instagram, a photo taken by a photographer that they didn't secure permission for. So it's like, I think for a long time there was this kind of soft agreement that people didn't really talk about, but this idea that as long as you credit the photographer, that's enough. And I think that increasingly photographers and agencies who represent them are taking the stance of that's actually not enough. And if you want to post that, that's promotional and you need to pay us, and if you don't pay us, we're going to go to court, I guess I'm curious, why do you think it is that this is coming out more now? Why are photographers getting more aggressive now? Or should I say agencies getting more aggressive now? About this, I have a few ideas, but what's your take on that?
Dennis Scully
Well, I mean, when I talk to photographers, I think there's both the feeling that a lot of business is being taken away from them for various reasons. I think they've been feeling for some time the threat of iPhone photography and lots of other ways of capturing images. And so I feel like a lot of their revenue streams have been under attack. Not to make it too dramatic, but I also feel as if there's just a lot more places where these images are being monetized than there used to be, and the photographers are feeling like they're missing out on a lot of that potential revenue, and they feel I mean, as you say, I understand the confusion with designers and I don't in any way understand or condone the behavior of what we see on some of the big sites. And with some of the big companies that use those images, I think they full well know better, but I think that's also part of it.
Fred Nikolaus
Yeah, I think that's dead on. I also think for me, some of this is about the maturation of Instagram. When it first started, I think it was like, oh, this is a cool platform. I'll be on this for free, for exposure, and maybe I'll get a lot of followers and maybe that'll turn into a gig down the line. What's really happened is that Instagram has just become like the. That's it, that's where the promotion happened. There's not some other place place. So I think that the idea that you're going to give away your images on the main place where things are getting discovered and monetized and valued, I think to photographers seem increasingly ridiculous and they want to get paid for that. What I'm just hopeful for is that there'll be some kind of standardized contract that gets used in the design industry that lets designers share the images in a way that's relatively free, that allows them to get exposure for their work work, but gets photographers compensated in a way that's sort of reasonable. Because I think part of the problem is that I don't get the sense that there is one contract that every photographer has and every designer understands. I think it's a very bespoke situation which has its advantages but leads to a lot of misunderstandings. So I'm hopeful that over time this will sort of stabilize into a situation where everyone can be happy. Because right now you're sort of starting to see these tensions turn into cease and desist letters. And I'm hopeful that that's a sign of a time of transition, not a sign of how it'll be like forever.
Dennis Scully
I'm with you. I hope that we can create whatever the boundaries and the guidelines are and get back to everybody sharing these images in a way that everyone is profiting from them. But I'm sorry that it's all gotten so complicated. In the meantime, we're going to move on to a feel good story which is going to make us feel so much better. FRED Another recent article from Haley Chouinard focused on an North Carolina trade program developed in tandem with local furniture manufacturers who hope to build a pipeline of upholstery professionals, something the furniture industry desperately needs Is more people becoming upholsterers?
Fred Nikolaus
Yeah, it's funny, like if you spend any time, you know, in a, you know, upholstery, either factory or workshop in North Carolina, you'll notice this weird thing where it's like everybody is either like, like 60 or 20. There really was this generation of workers who either they lost their jobs during the big offshoring of the 80s and 90s, or they just never got into it because their parents told them, hey, don't become a furniture manufacturer, that's all going to China. Instead become a lawyer or a mid level manager at a car rental company or whatever. It is something more reliable than being an upholsterer. And what that has led to is a labor shortage for all the considerable domestic manufacturing they're still is, especially for upholstery. And what Hayley's piece, a nice, good, feel good piece, talked about, is this local program that's trying to get more young people into this line of work because certainly these companies actually do need skilled workers. It's a great piece on that level, but it kind of brought up this other thing for me, which is I wonder if on some level this problem may kind of solve itself and the culprit is, you guessed it, Dennis, AI.
Dennis Scully
What do you think this is the solution for all the jobs that AI is coming after? I'm inclined to agree and I'm somewhat reassured both in reading this piece and in having conversations about this. It's interesting because I feel as though we talked about this issue a great deal, Fred, during COVID when all the factories were stretched to capacity and there were 48 week lead times for sofas and everybody was desperate to find more workers and that all sort of died down, but the problem hasn't gone away. And interestingly, all of the tariff talk and bringing more manufacturing back to the US this is actually manufacturing that is likely to expand in the US is upholstery. And we know a lot of big companies are looking for more domestic, domestic upholsterers. So when we hear that AI looks like it might be coming for some white collar jobs and maybe some media jobs, Fred, I hate to say that. No, never, we're safe, Dennis, but I do feel like everything that we hear is that if you have a skill that involves working with your hands, then there might be be hope for you.
Fred Nikolaus
Yeah, I mean, I don't know exactly what to make of it, but you do have these sweeping proclamations coming out of Silicon Valley where people are just saying that AI is going to replace all lawyers and doctors by 2028. And if you work with a computer at all, your job is completely vulnerable. And I don't know how real any of that is, candidly, but I do think that a lot of young people who are high school age right now are thinking like, well, do I want to go into a profession that's going to be obsolete in three years, or do I want to go into something with my hands, which I know is relatively safe? It takes a pretty sophisticated robot to do eight way hand tied springs. I think that there is going to be a natural momentum towards trade schools and towards working with your hands. I think a lot of people want to make that happen. There's been a lot of government investment in it. I think just more and more you hear the steady drumbeat of the person who could have gone to Yale but went to start a local company because maybe it's better for their mental health, maybe it's what they really want to do. But I also think in some ways it weirdly is like a safer job. So maybe AI is going to have all kinds of weird effects, but it's possible that it'll cause more people to go into this niche and people who make furniture in the US will benefit from that. And as you said, look, I don't think we're going to see a mass return of furniture manufacturing to the US for all the reasons we've talked about for the past year. But marginally you're going to see it go up, especially if these tariffs stick for the long term. So I don't think now is a bad time to get rid of your podcasting rig and get on down to North Carolina and start learning how to sew, because I think there's opportunity there.
Dennis Scully
I'm heading down to Hickory Chair right after we wrap up this podcast. I want to get it. Yeah, I want to get into the training program. No, I mean, listen, when I talk to the High Point people, what they tell me is that truthfully, case goods probably not coming back in a meaningful way, but plenty of opportunity in upholstery. We do so much custom upholstery in this country that I do think there's an opportunity there. And I hope that a lot of these manufacturing jobs will be made to sound more appealing. And I hope that we'll talk more about apprenticeship programs and a life of continuing learning in an operation like this, because I think it can be quite a nice life for people. And I think we've certainly seen that in North Carolina and in California, where a huge production in custom upholstery comes from. So I mean, I think it can be a very nice skill to have. And again, I think there's going to be a lot of people looking for work not too distant future. So hopefully it'll all come down to the furniture industry.
Fred Nikolaus
My hopes as well. Although I think it's too late for me. I'm too much of a klutz. Forever. Forever a podcaster. Just me and the robots.
Dennis Scully
All right, that's it for the news, but there's plenty more to check out on businessofhome.com including the latest product launches and Sean Lowe's advice on payment schedules. We'll be back in a minute, but first a quick break. We're taking a quick break to remind you about our nesting. Looking to transform your client's space, try Ernesta's custom size rugs made to fit their unique measurements right down to the very inch. Allow them to sink their feet into the softest wools or live carefree with a durable, easy to clean, family friendly rug. All ready to be delivered in as little as two to four weeks. Learn more about Ernesta's trade program at that's ernesta.com boh and we're back. I'm joined now by Bo and Tim Stump, two of the three family members that make up Stump and Company. Gentlemen, thank you so much for joining me.
Tim Stump
Happy to be here.
Bo Stump
Thanks for having us.
Dennis Scully
Dennis, great to have you back. It's been far too long. I feel like we talk about you a great deal on the show, so I feel like you've been on, but really, really it's been a while. So Beau, let's remind people what Stump and Company, the mergers and acquisition advisory firm is all about.
Bo Stump
Absolutely. Happy to do it. Thanks for having us, Dennis. We work with the owners of furniture businesses and help them think about their future and potential sales of their companies. So we work all across home furnishings commercial. If it's got furniture in it, we are involved.
Dennis Scully
Tim, you and I bumped into each other in Vegas in the hallways of the Vegas market, chatted for a little bit. I know you were also at the Atlanta Casual Show. You wrote in your recent note about some of your takeaways from market what was your sense of the past few markets you've been at?
Tim Stump
Well, attendance has been down. We know that. I think some of it was just the heat of the summer. But I think also the oh, the trepidation of tariffs and the uncertainty has caused people to just be a bit pencils down and stay at their shop. And try to save some money. And I think the general consensus is let's cut these deals, let's get back to work and let's get on with our business without all this noise.
Dennis Scully
Do you get the sense that we have now cut some of these deals and we're seeing a little bit more clearly what, what these tariffs are looking like, or is the market still perceiving that some of this is apt to still change and evolve?
Tim Stump
I think it's still a 50, 50 toss ball. There's some clarity with Vietnam, Indonesia and so forth. China, we still don't know. We got a curveball on India this past week with some foreign policy impact on the, the, on the Russian oil. So yes, there is a general sense that let's get on with it. And we're also seeing that the bigger, stronger companies are sensing it's time to get on with it, maybe make a deal or two before the market really gets going and be prepared for the uptick when it comes. And we're all hoping and thinking it will come.
Bo Stump
Yeah, I would just say on the tariff front, I think notably on the Vietnam side, some other Southeast Asian sides, I do think that there is at least some clarity coming in to our US Businesses and importers and they are now passing along these tariff impacts via price increases and we are hearing about that moving forward with these businesses. So while for months there was more speculation and a wait and see that is now happening, certainly I think that will happen more and more concretely as the final deals are announced from these other countries. And you know, your guess is as good as mine on when exactly those dates will be. But certainly for Vietnam, which is the big one, you know, it does seem like we're kind of near the finish line.
Dennis Scully
There was a perception that some of these big Asian companies were looking to expand their presence in the US and that maybe they were going to be some of the acquirers in your various markets that you're involved with. Is that still very much what you're thinking and what you're hearing?
Bo Stump
Yes, absolutely. I think almost immediately from when the new trade approach was announced, there's been at least the speculation of that the reality is aligned. There's a lot of interest, interest from overseas buyers to acquire here domestically. Conversations are active and ongoing and we do expect there to be some activity there.
Tim Stump
Again, there are two issues here. One, there are a lot of Chinese that want to leave China with their money and their families. And so there is an expectation that we will see them show up by companies, have a company their children can run and they've exited China. The question mark becomes, will China let them out with their money? So there are a series of guideposts that these companies and the individuals have to go through to get their money out. And we're dealing with that every day.
Dennis Scully
Is it your sense, and you were just saying earlier that that more and more companies, to the extent that they're feeling in a position to make acquisitions, are looking to do so because there is perhaps a growing perception that the market might be turning? I keep looking for signs of green shoots. Sometimes I see the home builders coming in a little stronger. I see Wayfair actually turn to profit. Our house looks like they had a better quarter. I keep, keep trying to hang on any of these things. But what's your sense of whether people are feeling that things are meaningfully turning?
Tim Stump
Well, our slogan last year, penned by one of our senior executives in the industry, was survive to 25, then thrive.
Dennis Scully
Yes. And we have referred to that often.
Tim Stump
And so we just got a response to that from another senior executive, says, more businesses go to heaven in 27.
Dennis Scully
Wow. Okay, that's a little bit. But in a good way in that they're being acquired or that they're just going away.
Tim Stump
Sadly, I think we're at a real fork in the road. The real strong companies are going to giddy up and go here, we think the second half of this year and into 26. But there are a lot of weak companies that really are going to go to heaven and go away. And that's just the survival of the fittest theory. And we're seeing it play out right now.
Dennis Scully
Okay, well, at least I like the thought of all of these companies that can't quite make it going to heaven. Tim, that makes me feel a little bit better about the outcome. But it's interesting because, and I'm not joking, that of course, so many people Tim picked up on that survived to 25 and thrived, and then 25 arrived and they didn't feel like business was thriving in any way. And they felt quite betrayed and misled, frankly, and that we had somehow promised them a brighter year in 25. And I feel guilty and somewhat responsible for parroting what you had shared. But now everyone is thinking, okay, wait a minute. Suddenly we're starting to see that perhaps interest rates really are going to come down. Sadly, it meant a lighter than expected employment number coming out to change everyone's perception. But it does look like rates are now being priced in, in a meaningful way to come down. Maybe it's too little, too late. Does that change people's perception or make people feel a little bit better?
Bo Stump
Yeah, I think all great points, Dennis. And to start the year, certainly we were all quite optimistic and hanging to that motto. And even at the January Vegas market there was a lot of optimism and wait and see. And of course, the first half of this year has really been dominated by the trade policy conversation and I think has put a fall certainly to the first half as far as getting back to a place of growth. Growth. We do think the second half should be better. There's some mixed data. I'd say to the positive that things are potentially improving to some degree. The big one is rates, like you said, and certainly seems like as of today, knock on wood, these things seem to change, but certainly seems like we're headed towards some cuts as soon as next month and you would think several more from there. So it's hard to say 2026 is the new 25, but there certainly is some reason to think that next year should be better, that the back half of this year should be better than the first half. And certainly what we're hearing from many clients, the big things just navigating through this trade uncertainty which we've all been dealing with for the last four to six months.
Dennis Scully
You did recently have a deal. A transaction was made at a huge showroom in Houston, ladco, which I mean for people that aren't familiar, another one, another one going into the hands of private equity, which we can talk about as well. But tell us about that.
Bo Stump
Yeah, I think the way you described it, Dennis, huge is apartment, it's 100,000 square foot facility. Some of that is warehousing and storage. But the showroom itself is just vast and beautiful. And it's all one, one independently owned business that's exhibiting dozens to over 100 different brands all in one place. And it's quite something to see. It's a real stalwart of the Houston design community. The buyer was, broadly speaking, private equity.
Dennis Scully
Broadly speaking. I like how you put that.
Bo Stump
Yes, but great people and a small group from Dallas and a lot of connectivity to that kind of higher end luxury real estate world and brought a lot of kind of complementary skill sets and relationships. So we're thrilled for everybody involved. It's one of those kind of win win outcomes that you hope for.
Dennis Scully
Well, and what should we take away from what was appealing to this private equity firm about making this acquisition? Was it the Houston market? It's a to the trade space. So I mean, that was interesting. As well. But what should we read into that?
Fred Nikolaus
That.
Bo Stump
Yeah, I think. I think simply put, would be that designer business. You know, Tim and I, our partner Stuart, we work with many companies across many channels. And home furnishings and the folks that are successfully engaging and selling designers over and over again on a repeat business have such a leg up almost. I mean, it's just. It's a great channel. It's still growing. There's more designers every year and more homeowners availing themselves of designers every year. And this company is kind of a textbook example of someone that had figured out how to do that with success over a long period of time.
Tim Stump
Yeah. A couple of things that I thought stood out. One, the luxury world is still performing at a high level, and the rich people are going to spend, and not just on their first house, but on their second and their third house. And they have their friends over, and the friends see how nicely it's adorned and they say, can you come do my house? And so we're seeing that very, very clearly. To leverage Beau's point on the design community, There are over 100,000 designers, decorators in the U.S. it's growing at a nice clip as retailers are shutting down. So. And 40% of those are four people or less, which means they're small businesses. They don't have the accounting, they don't have the warehouse, they don't have many of the business functions. And so a ladco can perform those functions and make the designer's life easier. And the people that bought this, it's really not a PE fund. It's more like a family office. And I think that's a good distinction, that they didn't buy it to flip it in two years. They bought it to build it and grow it.
Dennis Scully
Well, that's interesting. The point you make about the 100,000 designers too, because we often are having a debate about what the market perceives is the number for how many designers there are. So I like the 100,000 number. That sounds good. That sounds healthy. I wonder if, is there the perception that more people want to make deals like this? And are we seeing interesting things going on in the trade world? It's interesting to see Vornado come out and say, oh, we're gonna put the A and D building up for sale. We might put the Merchandise Mart up for sale. I mean, those are some very meaningful transactions. And I wonder what that says at this moment in time.
Tim Stump
Well, I think it goes back to the comment about markets, and markets are changing everywhere. We have this tension of Is it Vegas? Is it High Point? And we also have Dallas and we also have Atlanta. And how many markets do we need? The commercial world's got that with the Merchandise Mart in Chicago versus now the Design Days in Fulton. Market Hospitality has this issue with do you go to New York for BDNY or do you go to Vegas? How many touches do you really need? How much money can you really spend on exhibitions? So listen, changes, change is upon us. And you know, the merchandise mark has been a challenging building for a lot of people for a lot of years. So who knows where it's going? I don't know. But back to your point on high end designers at Vegas, you clearly saw again, Vanguard was there, Century Rock House Brands was there. TA was there, Hooker was there. All on those bottom one two floors, dovetail classic home forehands, all catering to the designer. So there is energy in the Vegas market in those lower levels servicing the design world.
Dennis Scully
Yeah, no, that was very clear. It seems as if the combination of designers playing a bigger role. I can't tell how much the growth of online is really impacting our market and how people are perceiving that. It was interesting to see this relatively smaller deal, but with Cherish and ATG for, we're told, $85 million for that, I don't know if that tells us anything about the role that online is playing in our industry or tells us anything else interesting about the M and A activity.
Bo Stump
Yeah, I think on the online side, Dennis, it's an interesting point and there have been some transactions there and we're seeing an uptick in conversations at least with clients and interested investors in that space. I think there was such a challenge there for the first few years of our interest rate, inflation world and E Commerce largely took it on the chin. You can kind of look at the Wayfair stock performance, unfortunately over those few years. But like you said earlier in the show, they had a nice earnings report last week. There's some other privately held E Commerce businesses that are starting to return to profitability. I think there's a sense that there might have been a bottoming out on the demand side maybe last year, year there, and we're back to a greener future. And I think it makes sense that there'd be some acquisition activity, particularly from bigger strategics that want to maybe consolidate some of these businesses and have a potential to make an even nicer margin and bottom line. And we expect that to continue to happen. On the online side, quite frankly, it's fascinating to watch the kind of Reverse the reverse engineering of these online businesses. I was in New York last week and I wanted to swing by a few of my favorite DTC brands to see the products because they all have showrooms now. So kind of surreal, you know, all started as these great online businesses and now moving into the store.
Tim Stump
Yeah, well, the omnichannel approach, that's the term, is being played out. And Warby Parker seems to be the poster child for how to do it correctly. And our furniture friends are doing it. We've seen La Z Boy with Joy Bird. That was a DTC brand and now they have stores. I think they're 10 or 12 stores. And they're saying there's more coming. And then if you saw in Vegas, they announced Joybird will now be a wholesale brand and Joybird will be kiosks inside the La Z Boy Homestead stores. So once you have a brand and can establish it, you try to go get the customer wherever you can.
Dennis Scully
I wonder, getting back to the importance of these designers, I mean, thinking about the companies that are dealing with all the tariff challenges right now, is it your sense that companies have been trying to absorb as much as they can of the tariffs and not continue to increase prices? We keep looking in the CPI and PPI numbers for signs, meaningful signs that tariff inflation is hitting us. We haven't quite seen it yet. Is it your sense that that's because so many companies are absorbing it at this point? Or what do you hear from the companies you talk to?
Tim Stump
We're hearing that the vendors are going to take a big chunk of it themselves. They want the business, they want to keep their factories going. The customers will absorb some, and I think margins will skinny a bit with the intermediary, our furniture companies here. There's also shifting away from the higher tariff countries to the lower tariff countries. So we're seeing certainly China to Vietnam has been ongoing since the 2018 tariff. I think a big one to keep our eye on is India, though. A lot of people were shifting out of China to India, and now we've got this second wave of tariffs on India, which could be very detrimental. And then now we have this proposed bigger tariff on Europe, which could be very detrimental to Europe that's already struggling. I mean, their economy is very difficult right now.
Dennis Scully
Yeah, no, it's interesting that you say that because I spoke to several CEOs who were particularly concerned about India, and we've been surprised about a lot of this. But India, and again, this recent announcement about India is of great concern. And the business of Home Podcast is sponsored by a number of big rug companies. So naturally I take this quite personally myself. But it is where a lot of product for a lot of these companies companies is coming from. And again, everybody thought they had made whatever moves they needed to make regarding China and now suddenly find themselves having to, they can't even rethink. It's not as if they can make some meaningful change. So I don't even know how these companies are going to navigate it.
Tim Stump
It's tough. And you mentioned earlier the Steelcase acquisition by H and I. A lot of the Asian furniture is going into that commercial sector sector, both from Asia and Europe, by the way. And so that side of the house is, is really going to struggle with it. And I think that's one of the reasons acquisitions will play a role, rationalize costs, cut costs, because we know their, their tariff pressures. And if H and I can buy steelcase and cut 125 million of overhead, which was the announced number, then that will help them better deal with the tariffs and whatever over other issues are out there.
Dennis Scully
So speaking of that acquisition, I wonder what both the price and the cost cutting to your point that they announced along with it, I wonder what that tells us about the contract side of the market and how we're thinking about return to office and how that whole side of the business is looking and feeling. And does that, that seem like a low number for Steelcase? Does it sort of tell us a little bit about maybe some of the struggles that Steelcases endured? What's your sense?
Bo Stump
You know, certainly some shock seeing that headline come out, right? I mean, it was reminiscent of when Herman Miller acquired Knoll several years ago. You know, frankly, I mean, pretty big number all things considered. I mean, big premium where they were standing as of the day that deal was announced. You know, you could look at the, the reaction of both relative companies, share prices. Certainly Steelcase popped understandably, and HNI's went down a fair bit. I think the market does speak and did speak there. And I think it was probably the right deal at the right time for both sides would be my 2 cents on that.
Tim Stump
I think the real question becomes what happens with the dealers. We saw the disruption that Miller Knoll had having two dealers in every city. And how do you rationalize that? And I don't think the, the answer's over or clear. So everybody's wondering, can hni, you know, do this in a better fashion, smoother fashion? And yes they did with Kimball. And as we know, HNI's tagline is RCI. Rapid, continuous improvement. And so we do expect, expect for them to make wholesale changes and improve the steel case and leverage the many positive things. So I, I think it's a success. I think we all should take a look at what's going on on the commercial side and see how that affects the residential side. The big guys now, you know, H and I steelcases now almost $6 billion in revenue. H&I, excuse me. Miller, Knowles, 4ish + million. Hayworth's 3ish billion has great consolidation in that much smaller industry. You know, that's a $15 billion industry versus versus home furnishings wholesales, maybe 40 billion. But we have Ashley at 7 or 8 billion. And then we dropped a la z boy at 2, and then we dropped to, to Ethan allen at, you know, 7,800 million. So we still have a lot of small players. If we're still a fragmented industry on the residential side, are we going to see more consolidation on the residential side? And I think the answer is yes.
Dennis Scully
Any, any upcoming deals you want to tell us about, Tim, along those lines? Anything you.
Tim Stump
I've got a list right here, as.
Dennis Scully
A matter of fact. Let's. Well, I mean, all joking aside, I definitely heard from several people who after the Steelcase deal was announced, said, oh, this is just the first of many to come, and suggested that we might be busy this fall with some announcements. So, I mean, it does sound. Was there a starting gun that went off somehow that I missed, or was there some signal that everybody got to sort of let this happen? Because this is honestly what a lot of people thought, thought bringing this new administration into the White House would mean that there would be all of these deals and there would be more IPOs and more mergers, and then it didn't happen right away. Is the feeling that, oh, first we needed to get through tariffs and then we could get to the mergers or what's your sense?
Bo Stump
What I would say is deals that you're seeing announced this summer, many of those discussions began last year, probably around election time. And not just deals that have been announced. Right. Deals that are in the works. And I think that first half of this year was challenging between rates and tariffs and just general trade uncertainty. And I think we have reached that point where there is confidence on the buy side that, yes, perhaps the worst is behind us. Perhaps, yes, rates are going to come down and better times are ahead. And yes, there are, there's attractive acquisition targets that we've been exploring and talking to, and now's the right time. So I think the foundations for These things are always laid long ago and a lot of that work is certainly always being done. And I think these things are just now coming to fruition as investors are kind of reaching that green button, green light to pull the trigger.
Dennis Scully
We talked earlier just in wrapping all of this up, and I'm thinking about our designer audience. It sounds as if a lot of the message that we're getting is, listen, the high end of the market, the designer driven side of the market is the more prosperous side. It sounds like designers should be anticipating some higher prices, perhaps at a high point market and coming into the fall. Not to be surprised by some companies finally just having to mark up and adjust to everything that's been going on. I wonder, it sounds like the designers have a lot of leverage in this equation. I wonder, is there something designers should be doing to take advantage of that? Should they be grouping together and demanding some better pricing? How can designers take advantage of the fact that it seems the market needs them desperately these days and they are in the driver's seat? How can all 100,000 of them get together and, and somehow impact their future in some meaningful way?
Bo Stump
I think it's challenging for that individual designer to exert too much pressure. To Tim's point, most are sole proprietor or small shops that are working on their handful of projects. Certainly at scale though, it is an absolutely massive growing channel at a very nice margin to the manufacturers and brands that are servicing them. And to the extent folks can can consolidate that spend in any real scaled way, there's absolutely purchasing power. There's some really novel concepts out there that are attempting to do this. There's some online almost aggregators of sorts. They're trying to enroll hundreds, thousands of designers into their platform so that they can aggregate that spend and then pass along some savings to the designer. But I think certainly at scale, it's a fascinating question. And who can best crack that, I think stands to gain quite a bit.
Dennis Scully
Well, gentlemen, thank you so much for making the time. It's always a pleasure to hear your perspectives. One more thing, Tim. Yes.
Tim Stump
I have our tagline for 26.
Dennis Scully
Excellent. I'm excited. Lay it on us.
Tim Stump
We'll have our kicks in 26.
Dennis Scully
I like it. Okay, so a hopeful Note kicks in 26 and then, then some of the businesses are going to heaven in 27, but.
Fred Nikolaus
Right, okay.
Dennis Scully
Well, we've got a few good years ahead, it sounds like. Thank you both.
Tim Stump
Thank you so much. Enjoyed being with you.
Bo Stump
Yeah, thanks, Dennis. Take care.
Dennis Scully
And we're back. We're getting to the End of the show here. But before we go, we'd like to take a second to highlight anything going on in the industry that might have.
Fred Nikolaus
Come caught our eye.
Dennis Scully
Fred, what caught your eye?
Fred Nikolaus
Julie Vadnal caught my eye. And as I say that, I realize I've never said Julie's last name out loud. So I hope it is Julie Vadnal or Vadnal. But she's a, you know, a great editor in the design world who's worked all over the place and worked at Food52. We didn't even talk about the drama at Food52. That's, that's her next one. But I just saw on Instagram that she was appointed digital director of Architectural Digest. So I'm sure we will see more of her hand New York soon. So congratulations to Julie on that one and she's great and I'm sure that AD will be lucky to have her. Did you see that too?
Dennis Scully
Dennis I did. I was in touch with Julie just recently and she mentioned that she was up for this position. I'm thrilled to see that she got it. And she used to work for one of our sister brands at Domino, so I feel like she's forever part of the family. FRED and so I'm excited for her. Good luck in her new position.
Fred Nikolaus
What caught your eye this week?
Dennis Scully
Dennis Couple things caught my eye, Fred. One is sounds like there's another home retail stock that's gonna be coming public. Sadly, Fred, it's not the houzz news yet that you're hoping for.
Fred Nikolaus
It's gonna happen. It's gonna happen.
Dennis Scully
But it is very much related to the perhaps better news coming out of the home industry. In fact, our Warren Shohlberg wrote back in May that Bob's Discount Furniture, a name we don't talk about too often on the show, but Bob Tiscoun Furniture, they were thinking it's owned by Bain Capital. And, and Bain is thinking that, you know what, things are looking better in the furniture world and in the market itself. So they're thinking let's, let's take that company public. And listen, it's going to be perhaps a billion dollar company. So it's, it's nothing to, to sneeze at, but that might happen before the end of the year. So another public company in the home space.
Fred Nikolaus
Is the ticker going to be Bob's B O B s? I hope so.
Dennis Scully
We'll see if that one is taken. But, but we'll, we'll watch for that. But the other big news that came out and there's potentially multiple pieces of news from this. But, but Vornado, the big, the big real estate trust company which owns some big design centers around the country, has announced that at least one of them has gone up for sale. And that's the A and D building here in New York, which is home to B and B Italia and Holly Hunt on the ground floor. But upstairs there's, there's quite a few companies that have quite sizable showrooms, Poliform and others. And at least some of the talk is that perhaps the building is going to be converted into an apartment building or maybe office buildings. But definitely sounds like some, some change is coming there. They also suggested, Vornado, that is that they wouldn't be opposed to selling the Merchandise Mart in Chicago if someone wanted to make them a nice offer. So sounds like some big changes potentially coming. But the A and D building is definitely on the market and we'll, we'll see what happens with the Merchandise Mart. What do you think?
Fred Nikolaus
Yeah, this is, this is really big news. I mean the A and D building a lot. I mean if that turns into apartments, that's going to cause, you know, a big, big shuffle in the design industry here in New York. And it's funny because we spend so much time talking about what's going to happen with Charles Cohen, what's going to D and D building. But the A and D building is very important as well. And I'm, you know, I wonder if there isn't a little bit of a preemptive flight out of that building. If people worry that it's, you know, it's going to decision is going to get made for them. So we'll definitely have to watch that closely. As for the Merchandise Mart, I mean, you know, the guy on the call said nothing is sacred. It was very, very, very ominous. You know, I'd be very curious to happen hear what happens there because that is, you know, a certainly more well known building than the A and D building. A venerable Chicago institution had its share of ups and downs. You know, if that changes hands and the new owner wants to do something different with it, that is very, very big news. So another one to watch very closely.
Dennis Scully
I'll be in Chicago soon, so I will definitely be asked.
Fred Nikolaus
Other investigative reports Trick for Dennis Gulley and aren't you glad you stuck around to the end of the show to get this? See, I wasn't just mouthing off at the beginning. There's value everywhere.
Dennis Scully
This might gotta stay to the end of the show. All right, that's all the time we have today. Thanks so much for listening. If you want to keep up with the latest news, browse job listings or take a workshop, visit us online@businessofhome.com if you want to get in touch with the show, write to us at podcast@businessofhome.com this episode was produced by Fred Nikolaus and Caroline Burke and edited by Michael Castaneda. I'm Dennis Scully. Have a great weekend and we'll be back with you on Monday.
Business of Home Podcast Summary Episode: The Thursday Show: Can you get sued for posting a project on Instagram? Plus: The new tariff era is here Release Date: August 14, 2025
In this episode of the Business of Home Podcast, host Dennis Scully engages in a multifaceted discussion covering the evolving landscape of the interior design and furniture industries. Joining him is Fred Nikolaus, the podcast’s executive editor, and later in the show, Tim and Bo Stump from Stump and Company, providing expert insights into mergers and acquisitions within the sector.
Dennis opens by reflecting on Monday’s episode featuring designer Susan Ferrier. He highlights Susan’s unconventional entry into interior design, her successful tenure at another firm, and her recent venture into her own business. A poignant moment includes Susan’s innovative use of AI in her practice:
Susan Ferrier (03:14): "If it's good enough for Susan Ferrier, it's got to be good enough for you."
The conversation swiftly moves to the pressing issue of tariffs, a significant concern for the home furnishings industry. Fred Nikolaus and Dennis discuss the transition from tentative tariff announcements to the implementation of actual tariffs under President Donald Trump's administration.
Fred Nikolaus (05:26): "President Donald Trump's sweeping new set of tariffs took effect last Thursday. ... we're entering a new era of tariffs here."
They delve into specific tariff impacts, particularly the 20% tariffs on Vietnam and the unexpected 25% tariffs on India, which have caught many in the industry off-guard. The unpredictability of these tariffs poses substantial challenges for manufacturers and importers, forcing companies to either absorb costs or pass them onto consumers. Dennis anticipates inevitable price hikes as stockpiles dwindle and import costs rise:
Dennis Scully (09:49): "I think more price increases are coming, which is why I think we've been a little premature in getting excited about the inflation numbers."
Fred adds depth by explaining the cash flow challenges imposed by upfront tariff payments, which could strain smaller businesses:
Fred Nikolaus (10:54): "...you actually do have to pay the tariff. So if you're importing like $100,000 worth of stuff from Vietnam, you have to pay $20,000 upfront just to get it into the country."
Shifting focus, the hosts discuss the unexpectedly strong financial performances of major home retailers like Our House and Ethan Allen. Despite low housing levels and consumer confidence issues, these companies reported better-than-expected quarterly results. Fred cites retail columnist Warren Shulberg’s analysis, suggesting these results might be a temporary blip driven by consumers purchasing in anticipation of future price hikes.
Fred Nikolaus (13:28): "Our House had a great quarter, a record-breaking quarter for them... Warren's thesis is that this is kind of maybe a blip."
Dennis echoes this sentiment, noting the creative strategies companies are employing to navigate tariff uncertainties without severely impacting their business:
Dennis Scully (14:45): "...people have been incredibly creative and inventive about how they've managed to navigate the tariffs issue..."
A significant segment addresses the rising concern of designers being sued for posting project photos on Instagram. Fred Nikolaus introduces the topic by outlining the common misconception that crediting the photographer suffices for legal use. However, with increasing lawsuits, this practice is no longer safe.
The discussion explores why photographers and their agencies are becoming more aggressive in protecting their copyrights, driven by declining revenue streams due to the proliferation of iPhone photography and the monetization of images on platforms like Instagram.
Fred Nikolaus (23:49): "Photographers are feeling like they're missing out on a lot of that potential revenue, and they feel... if you want to post that, that's promotional and you need to pay us, and if you don't pay us, we're going to go to court."
Dennis speculates that the maturation of Instagram as a primary promotional tool has led photographers to seek compensation for what was once considered free exposure:
Dennis Scully (24:00): "The idea that you're going to give away your images on the main place where things are getting discovered and monetized and valued, I think to photographers seems increasingly ridiculous..."
To provide a positive note, Fred highlights Haley Chouinard’s article on a North Carolina trade program aimed at addressing the labor shortage in upholstery. This initiative seeks to attract young talent into the field, essential for sustaining domestic furniture manufacturing.
Tim and Bo Stump discuss the labor dynamics, noting the historical reluctance of younger generations to enter upholstery but expressing optimism that AI advancements may rejuvenate interest in hands-on craftsmanship:
Bo Stump (26:59): "This local program is trying to get more young people into this line of work because certainly these companies actually do need skilled workers."
Tim and Bo Stump provide an in-depth analysis of the current state of the furniture industry, emphasizing the dual challenges of tariffs and a fragmented market. They discuss the impact of recent tariff implementations on countries like Vietnam and India, and the shifting dynamics as companies adapt by altering their supply chains.
The discussion highlights the mixed signals in the market, where some sectors show resilience despite high tariffs. Tim explains that while large companies may weather the storm better, smaller players are struggling with cash flow and operational adjustments:
Tim Stump (35:18): "The vendors are going to take a big chunk of it themselves. They want the business, they want to keep their factories going."
Bo adds that the clarity on tariffs may lead to price increases and cost-cutting measures, impacting both vendors and designers:
Bo Stump (36:45): "...there is some clarity coming in to our US businesses and importers and they are now passing along these tariff impacts via price increases..."
A significant portion of the interview focuses on M&A activity within the industry. The recent acquisition of the Houston-based Ladco by a private equity firm is discussed as a positive example of consolidation:
Bo Stump (43:07): "It's a real stalwart of the Houston design community... brought a lot of complementary skill sets and relationships."
Tim forecasts increased consolidation, especially among weaker companies, as stronger players seek to expand their market presence:
Tim Stump (39:15): "More businesses go to heaven in 27."
The Stumps touch upon the evolving role of online retailers, noting a resurgence in profitability for companies like Wayfair and the emergence of showrooms for traditionally online brands. This omnichannel approach, exemplified by brands like Warby Parker, suggests a hybrid future for retail in the furniture industry:
Tim Stump (50:39): "The omnichannel approach... where you have a brand and can establish it, you try to go get the customer wherever you can."
In closing their discussion, Tim and Bo explore how designers can capitalize on their indispensable role in the market. They suggest that collective purchasing power could enable designers to negotiate better pricing and terms with suppliers, potentially through aggregation platforms:
Bo Stump (60:54): "To the extent folks can consolidate that spend in any real scaled way, there's absolutely purchasing power."
Fred Nikolaus celebrates Julie Vadnal’s appointment as Digital Director of Architectural Digest, recognizing her notable contributions to the design world.
Fred Nikolaus (62:12): "Congrats to Julie on that one, and she's great and I'm sure that AD will be lucky to have her."
Dennis shares news about potential public offerings and significant property sales within the industry. Notably, Bob Tiscoun Furniture may go public, and Vornado has listed the A and D Building in New York for sale, signaling possible major shifts in commercial real estate and retail spaces:
Dennis Scully (62:43): "Vornado... have announced that at least one of them has gone up for sale. And that's the A and D building here in New York..."
Fred underscores the implications of these sales, noting the potential upheaval in key design hubs like New York and Chicago:
Fred Nikolaus (64:39): "If that turns into apartments, that's going to cause, you know, a big, big shuffle in the design industry here in New York."
The episode concludes with reflections on the current challenges and hopeful prospects within the interior design and furniture industries. Hosts emphasize the importance of adaptability, strategic acquisitions, and the pivotal role of designers in navigating the evolving market landscape.
Notable Quotes:
This comprehensive summary encapsulates the key discussions from the episode, providing valuable insights into the current and future state of the home and interior design industries.