Business of Home Podcast — The Thursday Show: "Quince is serious about getting into the home business. Plus: Havenly goes AI"

Date: October 23, 2025
Host: Dennis Scully
Guests/Co-hosts: Fred Nicolaus (Business of Home executive editor), Lee Mayer (CEO, Havenly)

Overview

This episode of the Business of Home podcast’s Thursday Show covers the latest moves and shake-ups in the interior design and home goods sector. Host Dennis Scully and co-host Fred Nicolaus dissect the week's industry news, including Havenly’s push into AI-powered design, IKEA’s price hikes and major Manhattan real estate move, and Quince’s ambitious foray into home furnishings. A special interview with Havenly CEO Lee Mayer offers a deep dive into the company's AI strategy and the evolving landscape for direct-to-consumer (DTC) brands in the home category. The episode wraps with cultural and business notes, including a tribute to Diane Keaton’s influence on design.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

High Point Market Previews

[02:01–03:06]

• Dennis discusses his upcoming panels at High Point Market, focusing on topics like branding, new product introductions, and recent rebrands at Global Views.
• Fred regrets missing the event but hints at a future High Point recap episode.

Recap: Conversation with Will Fisher of Jamb

[03:06–06:43]

• The recent interview with Will Fisher (Jamb) highlighted his Dickensian entry into antiques and reproduction furniture, battling early-life learning disabilities to achieve success.
• Quote: “He is a remarkable figure... he overcame a lot of obstacles and has found enormous success through his passion and his personality and clearly his eye as well.” — Dennis Scully [05:55]

[08:16] Havenly’s AI Tool — First Impressions

The News

• Havenly, the online design platform, launched a free AI design tool within its mobile app.
• The tool leverages Havenly’s own robust dataset (2 million+ designs) and integrates suggestions/products from its affiliated brands (Interior Define, St. Frank, Burrow, Citizenry, and Inside).

What's Unique?

• Unlike other AI design apps, Havenly’s tool plugs in real, shoppable products from its portfolio and is trained on its proprietary design data.
• If the AI reaches its limits, it prompts users to connect with a human designer.

Industry Context

• Fred compares Havenly’s approach to broader commerce trends, noting that AI is likely to become an interface for shopping itself (e.g., recent Walmart integration with ChatGPT).
• There's a recognition that AI tools are proliferating and iterating rapidly, but the “human touch” remains essential.
• Quote: “It kind of... tacitly admits, like, okay, I can take you this far, but we got to get a human in here.” — Fred Nicolaus [10:25]
• Quote: “I love this notion of it building a bridge to ultimately working with a designer...trying to find the positive in the AI not coming for humans.” — Dennis Scully [10:48]

[13:39–20:47] IKEA — Price Hikes and NYC Expansion

Rising Prices

• IKEA is raising US prices (e.g., Upland sofa: $849 to $899), largely attributed to tariffs and cost pressures.
• This is notable because IKEA had focused on price cutting to beat inflation, but market realities forced a reversal.

Impact of Tariffs

• Ikea has huge buying power and supply chain flexibility, but even they are pressured by tariffs.
• Smaller vendors are hit harder but IKEA cannot entirely avoid the impact.

NYC Store Expansion

• IKEA is making a bold Manhattan comeback with a $213 million SoHo real estate move, in addition to an Upper East Side location.
• These smaller-format stores (25,000 sq. ft. vs. Red Hook’s 300,000 sq. ft.) serve both as functional retail spaces and high-visibility billboards for the brand.
• Quote: “IKEA is a really interesting company...if you grew up near one...it was a major event when it opened...But once you get outside major urban centers, it's not as known in America as you might think.” — Fred Nicolaus [18:43]

[20:47–27:41] Quince — The DTC Disruptor Targets Home

Business Model

• Quince, known for radically low-priced luxury basics ($50 cashmere sweater), is extending aggressively into home: furniture, bedding, lighting, rugs, etc.
• Their model: “factory direct-to-door,” skipping US warehouses and intermediaries to keep prices far below comparable brands.

Product Strategy: The "Dupe" Playbook

• Quince openly produces lookalike versions of best-selling items from competitors — and even calls out the originals by name in side-by-side comparisons.
• Quote: “If you feel like you've seen this product before, it's because, yes, you absolutely only we're selling it to you for less.” — Dennis Scully [25:46]
• Investment: Quince is valued at $4.5B, surpassing public companies like RH.

Industry Reaction

• The home industry is divided — professionals decry knockoffs, but mainstream consumers love the savings and style.
• Quote: “You talk to so many people in the home industry who hate dupes with a passion...but at the end of the day, people really do buy this stuff.” — Fred Nicolaus [26:32]

[27:48–32:38] Design As A Moving Target: "Is the Industry Giving Up on Clean Lines?"

Trendwatch

• Fred and Dennis reflect on David Michon's "For Scale" newsletter, noting that animal motifs and organic, “gloopy” shapes are now everywhere in high-end decor, signaling a move away from clean-lined midcentury modern.
• Proliferation and mass-market duplication have dulled the aura of midcentury design, pushing the high end toward more idiosyncratic, difficult-to-manufacture aesthetics.
• Quote: “It had a very long moment of popularity...but now it’s so common that I think people at the high end need to do something different... something messy and organic.” — Fred Nicolaus [29:02]
• Quote: “The originals...took so much work...now they've all been reproduced and...no longer contain the value of the original design and manufacturing process.” — Dennis Scully [30:43]

[33:56–67:41] MAIN INTERVIEW: Lee Mayer, CEO of Havenly

AI in Practice at Havenly

[34:04–38:41]

• Havenly’s internal AI tools initially focused on making designers and operations more efficient.
• The new consumer-facing tool is trained on the company’s own data (millions of designs) and integrates with the product catalog for direct shopping.
• The tool’s use cases: editing existing designs, shopping, and (notably) upgrading to a designer-supported process.
  • Quote: “We've actually seen a lot of upgrades, interestingly, from our AI tool into a designer-supported process, which has been really interesting as well.” — Lee Mayer [36:23]
  • “I'm not one of those people that believes that the human gets replaced by the robot… at least not yet.” — Lee Mayer [37:56]

Havenly’s Acquisitions and Brand Ecosystem

[39:08–42:40]

• Havenly started as pure e-design but has expanded through acquisition: grew a family of brands (Interior Define, Burrow, Citizenry, Inside, St. Frank).
• The merged data sets provide a powerful foundation for future AI and business initiatives.
• The company is sensitive to balancing proprietary product promotion with the customer's actual design needs.

Tariffs, Supply Chains, & Pricing in a Volatile Economy

[46:13–55:03]

• 2025’s shifting tariffs forced Havenly to pause new acquisitions and focus on supply chain diversification (beyond China, into Vietnam and others).
• Mayer details how they’ve had to balance absorbing costs and passing increases onto customers, using AI-based price testing.
  • Quote: “We are eating a little bit...we just have to by nature have to take it on, because I don't think the consumer really supports that level of increase without seeing a massive deterioration in demand.” — Lee Mayer [49:06]
• US-based production is not imminent—reasons include limited skilled labor and lack of manufacturing capacity.

Outlook on M&A, Consumer Demand, and Market Anxiety

[55:32–66:02]

• Mayer discusses the rise of "financial buyers" in distressed home brands, and how buyer interest has shifted since the post-covid peak.
• There’s pervasive anxiety among both industry employees and consumers, largely due to economic uncertainty and AI’s looming impact on jobs.
  • Quote: “I think...the tantalizing closeness of AI to replacing people has made it so that I almost don't always feel like I need to.” — Lee Mayer [56:50]
• She acknowledges ongoing distress among home brands, but notes an uptick in buyer interest for distressed assets.

[67:47–71:51] Cultural & Business Notes

In Memoriam: Diane Keaton

[67:55–69:20]

• The design world mourns Diane Keaton, who was deeply engaged with home and interior design, not just film.

AD Pro’s “Expert” Video Consultations

[69:20–70:15]

• Architectural Digest is now offering video design consults, echoing the approach of The Expert—an interesting development in the online design marketplace.

Jason Saft’s Stage to Sell Warehouse Sale

[70:33–71:51]

• The New Yorker profiled home stager Jason Saft, whose upcoming warehouse sale is expected to be a hot ticket for design professionals.

Notable Quotes

• “I'm a huge High Point fan. All the haters out there can eat a biscuit.” — Fred Nicolaus [01:36]
• "I can take you this far, but we got to get a human in here." — Fred Nicolaus [10:25]
• “If you feel like you've seen this product before, it's because yes, you absolutely have.” — Dennis Scully [25:46]
• “You talk to so many people in the home industry who hate dupes with a passion...but at the end of the day, people really do buy this stuff.” — Fred Nicolaus [26:32]
• “The originals...took so much work...now they've all been reproduced...[and] no longer contain the value of the original design and manufacturing process.” — Dennis Scully [30:43]
• "We've actually seen a lot of upgrades, interestingly, from our AI tool into a designer-supported process..." — Lee Mayer [36:23]
• "I'm not one of those people that believes that the human gets replaced by the robot… at least not yet." — Lee Mayer [37:56]
• “The tantalizing closeness of AI to replacing people has made it so that I almost don't always feel like I need to.” — Lee Mayer [56:50]

Timestamps for Important Segments

• 02:01 – High Point Market panels preview
• 08:16 – Discussion: Havenly launches AI tool
• 13:39 – IKEA raises prices, expands in NYC
• 20:47 – Quince's push into home goods, DTC disruption
• 27:48 – Design trend: Animal motifs and "end of clean lines"
• 33:56 – Interview with Lee Mayer, CEO, Havenly
• 39:08 – Havenly's acquisition journey and data advantage
• 46:13 – Supply chain struggles, impact of tariffs
• 56:50 – Economic uncertainty and effects on hiring/acquisition
• 67:55 – Tribute: Diane Keaton's design legacy
• 70:33 – Jason Saft New Yorker feature and sale info

Tone & Style

The show combines inside-baseball reporting with witty banter. Dennis and Fred balance earnest industry analysis ("What does AI mean for the future of designers?") with lighter asides on the social world of design and self-deprecating humor.

For Listeners Who Missed This Episode

This episode delivers in-depth, accessible analysis of urgent home sector issues, including the digital revolution in design (AI), shifting global supply chains (tariffs, manufacturing), the growing power of DTC disruptors, and reflections on how taste evolves at the high end. The interview with Havenly’s Lee Mayer offers frank, actionable insight into how a leading firm is navigating economic and technological challenges, with a clear message: the need for human originality and adaptability is more crucial than ever, even as AI rises.