
BOH executive editor Fred Nicolaus and host Dennis Scully discuss the biggest news in the industry. Later, columnist Warren Shoulberg joins the show to discuss the mood in home retail.
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Dennis Scully
This is Business of Home. I'm Dennis Scully, and welcome to the Thursday Show. Later on, I'll be talking to BOH columnist Warren Shohlberg about the mood in home retail. But first, we're going to catch up on the news, including the latest round of Trump tariffs, the micro trends that are here to stay, and what designers really want from trade programs. To do all that, I'm joining joined by Business of Home's executive editor, Fred Niklas. Hi, Fred.
Fred Niklas
Hi, Dennis. How's it going?
Dennis Scully
Great. How you doing?
Fred Niklas
Doing good. Did you watch the Super Bowl? Did your squad take the day? Were your lads victorious?
Dennis Scully
Dennis, did I force the lovely Mrs. Scully to watch football much against her will? Yes, I did, Fred. That's part of the marriage agreement as far as I'm concerned.
Fred Niklas
See, I am not a football guy. And I think every year around this time, I thank God that I'm in the interior design industry because I don't have to preten to know what's going on in the world of football. There's no forced small talk about it. No one asks. So I'm happy as a clam that way.
Dennis Scully
Do you know what's funny? And so, of course, all joking aside, I am in no way a football person, naturally, but I felt like it was such a moment that the. It's a time where you feel like so many people are coming together and experiencing the same thing. And I was actually surprised how many designers shared the teams that they were rooting for, including some past guests. I saw that Andre Malone was rooting pretty hard for the Eagles, and he seemed pretty excited that they won. And quite a few people seem to be actually much more excited about it than I thought they would be. So I felt like, okay, all right, I'm watching. I'm paying attention. I'm on. Yeah.
Fred Niklas
I mean, to be clear, I'm not trying to, you know, enforce any stereotypes here. Designers, of course, can watch the Super Bowl. I have nothing against football, aside from traumatic brain injuries, but. But I think it's just I enjoy the fact that I don't have, you know, there are some industries where it's table stakes that you have to kind of banter these people. And for me, I'm happy to. Not to live in blissful ignorance. But you know what else brings people together? The Business of Home podcast Monday show. And this week, we heard from Benjamin Noriega Ortiz. Really fun, witty conversation. I really enjoyed it. How about you, Dennis?
Dennis Scully
A delightful conversation. I very much enjoyed spending time with him and hearing the many different experiences he had along the way in his career some high profile clients that he, that he got to work with and some. Some high profile people that he had worked for in the past, working for John Celadino and learning a great deal from him. What jumped out at you about the conversation, Fred?
Fred Niklas
Well, nothing beats the story of getting hired by Lenny Kravitz without knowing who Lenny Kravitz is. That's a fun one.
Dennis Scully
Oh, that Lenny Kravitz, sure.
Fred Niklas
Come on over. Yeah, I mean, but I think what I loved about the conversation is I think when designers get to a certain point in their career, and Benjamin has very much gotten to that point, it's like been on all the magazine covers, been on all the lists, certainly very well known for his work. You just reach a point of honesty. He doesn't care about sugarcoating things in an interview anymore. So it's a very real conversation. He talked about how he wishes he charged a markup, and that was kind of an interesting little dive into his fee structure. But there was one part where he talked about how designers need to learn how to just take the blame, which I think he really meant, just take the responsibility for your decisions. There was a great quote about, you're working with the most powerful, rich, smart people in the world, but they can't decide what color they want their sofa to be. And you have to make that choice and you have to own that choice. And I think that that was, you know, it's a little bit obvious, but I think it's worth repeating. And I think probably some designers got a little pep talk out of that.
Dennis Scully
I completely agree with you that one of the things that I admire about Benjamin Noriega Ortiz is that he's reached a point in his career where he doesn't have to say yes to a bunch of jobs he doesn't need. He said, social media today, I don't even really get it. I'm glad I don't have to spend a lot of time on it and had all that. He's been on all the magazine covers, he's had all the fame and fortune, and now he just has a nice small office. They work on projects that they want to. They come into the office only a few times a week and. And it sounded like, like a pretty nice place to work.
Fred Niklas
I hope to get there someday myself. Only saying yes to the podcasts I want to do, which of course would be the Thursday show.
Dennis Scully
Well, I hope so, Fred. I hope you'll always want to say yes to coming on the Thursday show. All right, we're going to take a quick break and then we'll get into the news. This podcast is sponsored by Jaipor Living. At Jaipor Living, it's always been about more than rugs. Founded in 1978, Jaipor Living began with a bold mission to empower women artisans in rural India, giving them dignity, independence, and a chance to thrive. Today, they partner with over 40,000 skilled artisans, 85% of whom are women, to create breathtaking handmade rugs that bring texture and soul into your home. When you choose Jaipur Living, you're not just buying a rug, you're helping transform communities. Visit JaiporLiving.com to see the beauty of their work, their journey. This podcast is also sponsored by Hector Finch Lighting, who've been selling British manufactured decorative lighting to the design community worldwide for more than 30 years. Hector Finch is known for their clean lines, impeccable craftsmanship, and a less is more philosophy. Working with the highest quality European techniques and materials, including mouth blown glass, hand thrown ceramics, and alabaster, Hector Finch produces a high specification product much loved by designers around the world. Hector Finch is represented in all major markets in North America and their dedicated team is on hand to discuss their many custom options. You can count on Hector Finch to deliver friendly personal service tailored to the needs of your clients. To learn more, visit hectorfinch.com and follow hectorfinch lighting on Instagram. And we're back. First up, Fred Floss, BNB Italia Group. Are they considering a sale?
Fred Niklas
Looks that way. A few weeks ago, it came as a surprise when the company's chief executive, Danielle Lalonde, suddenly stepped down from his role. Now Womenswear Daily reports that the group is entertaining offers to sell off its furniture division. Now, this is big news, but we may just be talking about it as kind of a victory lap, because I believe we are. More accurately. You called this, Dennis?
Dennis Scully
I think. Is that the main reason we're talking about this is just so that we can say we called it? I don't think so. This is newsworthy, Fred. But yes, also, we totally thought that after the news of Daniel Lalonde stepping down that the next logical step would be perhaps to sell off some assets. And maybe that is what's happening.
Fred Niklas
Yeah. So just a little bit of background here. So the Floss BNB Italia Group is a big conglomerate of largely European design brands. Of course, Floss and BNB Italia are two of the flagship ones. It also has Lumens as part of part of its group. And Daniel, who is former podcast guest, had this vision of turning it into, you know, what was billed as the LVMH of home. So high end luxury brands all rolled up into a big conglomerate and kind of getting the strengths of a bunch of people all pulling in the same direction. Now, of course, when he left, the speculation is, well, what's going to happen to the LVMH of home? And there's a lot of big private equity money behind it and they're getting near to, I guess, seven or so years into the investment. And oftentimes what happens with private equity is when they get to the end of it, if they haven't made a huge amount of profit with a big roll up, they just unroll that roll up. It was totally reasonable to suspect this might happen. Now we should be clear, this is not a done deal. This is a rumor in Women's Wear Daily. It may not happen, but the fact that it's being it suggests to me that at the very least they're strongly considering it. What do you think?
Dennis Scully
Well, I agree. So certainly they're considering it. Some people must be talking about this, some people must be sharing this information with others. You sort of get the feeling that they want this news out there. We'll see. But also, I think very much to your point, we can make a pretty fair assumption that time might be running out on the patience or just the investment cycle for Carlyle and Invest Industrial. Because if ever there wasn't a good time to be selling a big old furniture brand, I'm thinking it's now. So I'm thinking if you could wait, you would, right? And so they must not be able to wait unless they're simply taking the market's temperature and saying, hey, what if we were thinking of selling BNB Italia? What would you guys be willing to pay?
Fred Niklas
Now the, you know, the rumored bidder was Haworth Group, which is another big, you know, furniture roll up that owns like Janice AC and Casino and Pulchrona Frau. And it makes all the sense in the world for them to, you know, buy BNB Italia too. You know, the price that they were floating was 800 million and 1 billion euros, which, you know, it's a lot of money, but maybe it is a little bit of a low ball, you know, for, for. It wasn't just BNB Italia, by the way, the entire, all of the furniture brands that, that, that, that they own. So this might be a market temperature check and maybe the real deal making starts now, I guess. Who are the winners and losers if this group does get broken up and the LVMH of home is really not to be who comes out ahead and who comes out behind.
Dennis Scully
Well, what I'm curious in all of this, speaking of the winners and losers and what might come out of this, and maybe this is just because I was recently spending time with Holly Hunt who, yes, still regrets selling her business to Noel and I think secretly is always wanting to buy it back, but suddenly it made me. What if we discover what the value of these Italian furniture brands is and it helps us to better understand the many companies that are under the umbrella, as you say, of both Haworth and of Miller Knoll and I think of Holly Hunt and Edelman and Maharam and all of these different brands and maybe there are other companies too that want to unroll some of the big roll ups that they've done in the past few years and maybe the sale of B and B Italia and these other furniture related brands us to better understand at least in this moment in time, what some of these big brands might be worth. We know it's not an ideal time you want to sell at the top. You wanted to sell your furniture brand right in the peak of COVID when everyone was tripping over themselves to order sofas and not now. So it's definitely a distressed price we will probably see. But I think it could tell us a lot about the underlying value of some of the assets that these other companies have in the space hold. Does that make sense?
Fred Niklas
Well, then I guess the winner there is Snoopy journalists, because that's the kind of information that I certainly want to know. But I think there's another winner here which is. Wait for it, Dennis. RH here's why I think it's obviously no secret that RH has been very successful as defining itself as a luxury brand in the home retail world for a lot of American consumers over the past decade. And I think that, I think Daniel actually talked about this. There was this idea that, okay, you've got that, but we're the real luxury brands. We've got these European heritage companies that have been around for decades. We manufacture all our products in Italy. We're going to come over to America and with the strength of all these brands together, we're going to redefine the marketplace. And when people think luxury, they're going to think of us instead of rh. A lot can play out here. It's possible they won't unroll all these companies or it's possible that BNB Italia will end up being stronger on its own as a standalone company if they do unroll, unroll this roll up. But I do think, at the very least, this is sort of like a tacit admission that putting all these brains together maybe hasn't worked quite as well to unseat RH from its perch. I don't know if Gary Friedman was necessarily losing sleep over this, per se, but it's an interesting development, and I do think that it shows how difficult it is to occupy that space. I think RH is sort of a backdoor winner in all of this.
Dennis Scully
Well, that's interesting. And I don't disagree with that theory. I think that. But in a way, I think it's a reminder, and we've talked about this in the past, of how difficult it is to bring all of these European brands together. And when I spoke to several leaders in the industry about some of the challenges in trying to do all that, there was still very much this feeling that many of these companies just refused to make the adjustments necessary to really cater to the American market effectively. And so I think if it's a victory for anyone, it's for those people. And we're gonna talk about trade programs later on in the show. I think it's a victory for all of the people who have tried and succeeded in selling to designers. And maybe part of the struggle here is that that still hasn't happened for these brands in a meaningful way. Interestingly, that the lighting companies were sort of separated from this whole discussion, which I think also speaks to the strength in that category versus the furniture category, which I also think is interesting and certainly might elevate the valuation of some of the other lighting companies in that space. Did you see it that way?
Fred Niklas
Yeah, that's interesting. I think lighting is kind of like, I don't know, maybe a less troubled category than big furniture. And there's more opportunity, there's more margins in that. So Lumens, I know, has definitely been on kind of a tear recently. So it's possible this is like a, I don't know, good bank, bad bank is too strong of a framing. But there may be a little bit of a separation of powers here. But certainly we will be talking, talking about it, especially if we make any predictions and they come true, because that is. That is very much the bread and butter of the Thursday show.
Dennis Scully
It's definitely one that we'll be watching. Next up, we're going to talk about tariffs. So last week, the Trump administration decided to hold off on suspending the de minimis exemption. By Monday, however, another tariff was already on the table. A 25% tax on imported steel and aluminum set to begin next month. It's pretty hard to keep up, Fred, with the comings and goings, the tariffs that might or might not happen. What do you think?
Fred Niklas
Let's just rename this podcast the Tariff Show. Welcome to Tariff Talk. Yeah, I mean, I guess just to sort of break this into two, let's start with the de minimis exemption, which sounds like the name of a spy thriller. Jason Bourne's the De Minimis exemption. The de minimis exemption is something that has sort of been baked into US Trade law for a long time, which basically means that if you're shipping in a package from overseas that that's under $800 in value, sort of, it's per day per customer, then tariffs don't apply. So you don't. Let's say there's a 50% tariff on China, but if you're mailing in, like one necklace that costs 20 bucks, then the tariff doesn't get charged on that. And that's been in place simply because there's so many hundreds of thousands of packages coming in that it's impossible for customs to keep track of it. And it's a logistical headache. And they've always just felt, okay, that's so called de minimis. We're not going to pay attention to that. Let's move on into that loophole like in. And entire businesses have sprung up. So Sheen and Temu, these companies that sell basically direct from Chinese factories to US Consumers, all take advantage of this loophole because they ship the product directly and it's all or mostly under $800. So tariffs don't apply to them. And that's why they're able to sell their, you know, goods for such a low, low price. It's because of the de minimis exemption. Now let's get to Trump. Trump canceled this as part of his. Sorry, this is complicated. I know Trump canceled the de minimis exemption for China as part of his tariff rollout the other week. Then it was sort of chaotic at the post office and he rolled it back and it's back in place. But I do get the impression that this rule is going to go away and tariffs are going to be implied to lower value goods. And after that half an hour of explanation. Dennis, I'm curious, what do you make of this? Does this matter for the design industry?
Dennis Scully
Well, the funny thing is that the birth of de minimis was really built around American citizens sending things home from abroad when they were on a trip. And it had nothing to do with foreign trade at all. And it sort of has blown up into this issue, but really it was just so that people could send some gifts home without having to pay a tax or a levy. That being said, the amount of staff and the work that would go into trying to keep up with all of the packages that are coming in at that low dollar value is hard to comprehend. And I think the Post Office sort of made that clear. But I think the question around all of this is what's going to end up being real? What of all the many tariffs that have been suggested and threatened and as you put so well in last week's show, used as a cudgel in the trade talks, what's going to end up being real?
Fred Niklas
Yeah, well, I don't know is the answer to that, and nobody knows. And I do think that that's a really important thing to keep in mind. These tariff conversations can seem so catastrophic. Oh, the sky is falling. This changes everything. But, you know, we simply don't know how real they are. And I would urge everyone listening to this to not lose their heads over any one of these provisions. Now, they do matter. But I do think you're absolutely right. Let's keep our heads about this and focus on what actually is happening. Now, I will say the de minimis exemption. Just to squeeze a little bit more blood out of that stone, I just.
Dennis Scully
Like, put a bow on the de minimis.
Fred Niklas
The de minimis exemption. It's clearly the case. Yeah, I think it's actually kind of interesting because first of all, it applies more to clothes. It's not something that has mattered for home quite as much. But if you remember, we talked about Amazon trying to sell the $20 sofa through their haul site. That's.
Dennis Scully
And if this is another thing that prevents Amazon from selling $20 sofas, Fred, then I'm all for it.
Fred Niklas
Well, that's what I'm saying is I do think that the de minimis exemption. There we go. That's the 10th time I've said it has really given birth to fast fashion and fast furniture in a way that it supercharged it. So I'm sure there will be lots of people who can explain, oh, actually it is good for this reason or that reason. And probably the Post Office doesn't want to deal with it. But if this does anything, if it is closed and this does anything to fight back against Fast furniture and $20 sofas, then I think we should see this as a good development in the trade policy. But we should move on and talk about Real manly tariffs on steel and aluminum. What'd you make of those?
Dennis Scully
Exactly. Now, those sound much more serious and much more of a concern if in fact, in fact, there's a 25% tax on all imported steel. And that is a huge component in any number of things that will actually be an issue. And 25% is a big enough number where it's hard to imagine they will not have to pass along those additional costs. And that's part of how we've been able to not get quite as worked up about all of the tariff talks too, is that so many companies said, oh, we found a way to eat it before and we'll, and we'll work it into our cost structure again. If it really is 25% on aluminum and steel, then it's hard to imagine that there aren't prices that are going to have to be raised. And that seems to defeat what all of this is about, which is we're going to bring prices down. Yes.
Fred Niklas
Well, I don't know if it's just about bringing prices down. I think Trump likes tariffs. He just likes tariffs. That's plainly true.
Dennis Scully
That seems to be true.
Fred Niklas
But I mean, there's also the motivation to increase revenue. And I don't want to oversimplify it. I think there are, there are people who think that there's a good justification for certain kinds of tariffs. But as you were saying earlier, I think keeping a cool head is wise. We simply don't know if these are real and what the real effect will be. I think in some ways the meta story here is just that this is just all creating a lot of uncertainty that in some ways matters more than any 1, 5 or 10, 25% tariff. It's that people don't know exactly how to react and that that puts plans on pause.
Dennis Scully
Well, and you're starting to see more and more business leaders come out and say just that. And the Wall Street Journal has suggested the same that what all of this is doing more than anything is just creating uncertainty. It's becoming more and more clear that we're going to be in a very challenging interest rate environment in the coming year. The Federal Reserve chairman was just giving his testimony and he didn't sound in any rush to lower rates. I think P.S. the wild card this year is do they have to go back and take some of those rate cuts back? And oh, won't that be an unwelcome surprise to the market? So stay tuned for that. But I think that what the markets, and by the markets I mean the financial markets at the moment, they are so unmoved by all of this tariff talk that they seem to be thinking, one way or another, this will get resolved without it having too much of a sizable impact. I think the housing market and interest rates remain the big story. And in a way, these tariffs are an unfortunate distraction and they get people quite nervous for a little bit, but then they go away. And I wish they would go away altogether.
Fred Niklas
Well, I mean, look, I think all that's really points well taken. And I do think, though it's like last week, I think we were pretty. Cavaliers may be the wrong word, but there was this sense of, okay, well, we had these threatened tariffs on Canada and Mexico, then they went away. Who cares? But in the past week, there's been some reporting around Canadian companies that were really shaken by these tariffs that didn't happen and they've only been paused for a month now. Most people are assuming they won't come back and there won't be a 25% on Canadian imports. But that's not a foregone conclusion. If you're a furniture company in Canada thinking, well, am I still going to have any US Customers in a month? I probably will, but I might not. That really affects how you move things around there. There was a furniture company in Canada that laid off 100 people citing the tariff threat. And I'm sure they had other things going on. But like, this does have real world consequences. People are shaken by this uncertainty. And I think what's so interesting is that it's the very same people who might have really welcomed a lot of the slashing of regulations that Trump is planning to do and might have really welcomed a pro business attitude of a Republican administration. They love almost everything about that. They just don't like this.
Dennis Scully
No, I agree, and I completely agree with everything you just outlined. I'm eager to stop talking about it, eager for it to go away. And I just, I would love for the uncertainty and I would love for the unsettling messages that we're sending to some of our most important allies to just let up and let's get through this period. Let's move on and talk about trade programs. So, Fred, in this week's feature, you and boh's Aidan Taylor spoke to more than a dozen designers across the country about what matters in a trade program today. Hey, I'm eager to hear what you.
Fred Niklas
Found from tariffs to trade pricing. What a, what a leap there. Very.
Dennis Scully
Look at that transition.
Fred Niklas
Exactly. Expertly executed. Just a little bit of backstory here. You Know, as we talk about a lot on the show, I think designers have emerged as just every brand's ideal customer. Right. Because, you know, it's hard. Retail is very complicated and very challenged. E commerce is promising but chaotic. Whereas designers are this like, very steady, stable growth engine. They reach affluent customers, their clients, obviously. So every brand in the world is trying to work with designers in one way, shape or form, even if historically they might have shunned them. It was interesting, in doing the article, I spoke to one designer, Ghislaine Vinas, who was saying, even the fact that we're talking about a trade program is kind of interesting because for a long time it was like there were brands that were trade exclusive or there were just retail brands who would sell to everybody basically at the same price, more or less. It was just, I think, an interesting opportunity to take the temperature on what really matters to designers about trade programs and hear what's sort of empty fluff and what really moves the needle for them. And it was just fun, fun to have so many conversations about trade programs.
Dennis Scully
Well, and I think that's such an interesting point because, and we've talked on the show in the past, certainly about a lot of the high point brands that have been dragged kicking and screaming into catering to designers and. Right. And a lot of furniture companies, a lot of retail brands just didn't see the value for what the margin hit that they would have to take if it meant lowering prices. And I think a lot of companies have had to jump in with both feet and learn quickly. And I think one of the issues was always the companies that wanted a certain minimum, for example, and that seems like it's changed. Yes.
Fred Niklas
Yeah, that's a great point. I mean, I think when I first started covering this sort of part of the industry, I think there was like, pretty much every designer would say, oh, God, can't this minimum, that minimum, like I have to like, you know, spend 100 grand just to like, you know, get you to return my call. That obviously still exists. That's still part of the industry. I got the general sense that like those minimums were going down like it wasn't quite as high as they used to be. And also, like, you know, there's brands like Forehands who famously, you know, advertises like, you know, no order minimums ever. And I think that that creates like a condition in the marketplace where if you're a brand that does have a minimum, you need to figure out why you're charging that and what you can offer to make it worthwhile for designers. So I thought that was kind of an area of movement. I'm curious, do you feel that that's the case as well? I almost feel like your experience is a little more valuable than mine because you've been in the game a little bit longer. What do you think about that?
Dennis Scully
Well, it's interesting to see again how companies had to wrap their heads around. If we're going to get rid of these minimum volumes, these volume minimums, for example, what does that mean is going to happen to our margin and to pricing? And what are we going to get in return? I think a lot of people in the furniture industry, and I know because one of my early mentors felt like designers were just a waste of time and they just wanted a discount.
Fred Niklas
Where is he now? Where is that mentor now? Dennis?
Dennis Scully
I still think that there's this perception with some companies that it's just not worth. Worth going all the way in on investing in the designer. But for the high point companies, they've definitely. And you mentioned four hands, who I think has done an incredible job of creating all sorts of different levels for designers to participate in and different price structures. And I think they found a way to really cater to the trade that many other companies, if they'll share their secrets, could learn from.
Fred Niklas
Yeah. And I mean, I think it's not that designers don't understand the minimums in some cases. I just think there's more of an imperative to, to like, explain why you're doing it or be clear about it or lower it or. It's not as much accepted as a given as maybe. Maybe it was at one point. Another interesting kind of sort of movement I felt is sort of the expectations designers have around exclusivity. And when I say exclusivity, I mean around product, not around pricing. Pricing is still, you know, pricing still matters. That was a big takeaway from this, is if you can't offer a great margin, then why shop with you? But, you know, I do think that again, when I first started covering this a little bit, I felt that designers, designers were really just did not like to shop with certainly retail brands because consumers can go in and shop the same thing. They wanted something that was specifically only for them and that was a strong driver. Now it still matters, obviously, and every designer wants to give their clients something that only they have or only they have access to. But I didn't get the same kind of energy around that question. I sort of felt like people were like, well, it's nice if you can have that, but really you have to protect me on price. That's what we really have to do. But I didn't get, obviously designers are going to want to have a few of those super exclusive pieces in a project. But it didn't feel as emotionally charged as it once did. I think most designers have accepted that brands are going to try and sell however they can. And at the end of the day, what matters is the business you do with designers, not the business you do elsewhere. I don't know. I'm sure there are some people listening right now who are like, nope, that's not true. So what do you think, Dennis? Do you think that matters as much?
Dennis Scully
Yeah, I mean, I, I was having this conversation with a furniture maker the other day for an upcoming show and I, I was talking about the fact that so often on the chat boards, this is such a hot topic. Often. Oh, they, oh, they started selling to consumers. Well then I'm done with them. I'll never buy from them again, like, because that's. That exclusivity has gone away. And this particular furniture company was actually doing a partnership with CB2 in addition to their much higher end furniture line. And they had actually reached out to a lot of designers who said, no, I'm totally fine with that. That would be great, that would be fun. I can't wait to see what you do and I'd love to have that available. So, I mean, you get a lot of mixed messages. But I think in general the feelings around that have evolved a great deal.
Fred Niklas
Yeah. And I mean, again, the thing that hasn't evolved is pricing. I think there's a lot of people who think that, oh, markups are going to go away and designers are going to charge only for their time and design fees and I don't have to get, give the trade a 30% and higher discount. And I will say I found no evidence of that in these conversations. And neither did my colleague Aiden. And I think that like, pricing, and it's not just pricing, it's sort of price protection. Because I think like designers can accept a smaller margin, but if you're giving, you know, one price to your client and then the store or whatever turns around and sells it to another reseller at like 50% off, like five days later. And the client sees that price and is like, what do you mean? That's the kind of thing you have to avoid. It's the protection of the price. Anything that impinges on the trust between the designer and the client is what really is just a third rail in some ways, it's less about pricing specifically and more about not tweaking that. The last thing I wanted to talk about is something that came up over and over again in these conversations we had with designers. The number one deal breaker around trade programs, and it was related to service. But it's not like, oh, just to have a friendly rep. It's the idea of brands standing or not standing behind their product if something is wrong or it's defective after a few weeks or there's some issue. The idea of brands not delivering good after sales service was just over and over again the most frustrating thing that designers talked about. And their number one reason for feeling like a trade program wasn't really good if the brand didn't do a good job with that component. It's totally understandable. I think in this day and age when logistics can be sort of broken, stuff arrives in pieces and there's all kinds of issues and communication problems, it's, I think, a very recurring problem. And it's understandable that designers see that as the number one thing. I guess my one sort of twist on that is that in the modern landscape, because you have these enormous wholesale players and your wayfarers, these giant companies that can afford to absorb the loss of. Okay, well, one time I was talking to a designer and she told me there was some issue with the sofa she ordered from maybe a Perigold or Wayfair. And they just told her, oh, yeah, just keep it, we'll send you another one. I think there was an issue with that one and she got another one. When you have that ability to absorb a margin, I do wonder if that ends up rewarding the really big players at the expense of smaller trade brands who, who can't afford to absorb that kind of hit. I don't know that there's a good answer for that. And maybe this is a little bit of a hot take, but it's completely understandable desire from designers around a trade program. But I wonder if it ends up rewarding the people who have the big fish keep getting bigger.
Dennis Scully
I think so many companies, and I think the companies that really understand what's at the heart of this issue talk about part of their job is to help designers look good in front of their clients. And that can mean a lot of different things. But I think more often than not, what is at the heart of that is stepping up immediately when there's a problem. To your point, not every company can just say, I'm going to replace your sofa. No cost. Don't worry, about it, but to step up, to show your engagement, your understanding of the situation, and to help that designer designer look as good as possible in a situation where there's a problem with their client. And I think the companies that do that effectively will win the loyalty of designers, even if they can't just immediately replace all the product.
Fred Niklas
Yeah, I mean, maybe it's a situation where you get the order right the first time, as opposed to fixing it on the back end, is the lesson here. But I think that is very concisely put, and I think that's. That's still the secret.
Dennis Scully
All right, moving on. It's time to talk about our favorite topic. Micro trends with staying power.
Fred Niklas
Fred not just any micro trends now with new, improved staying power. Between Coastal Grandma and Tomato Girl Summer, plenty of niche styles have found fame on TikTok, but few have managed to last. For Elle Decor, Julia Cancia asked experts, which micro trends actually have staying power? Dennis, which micro trends actually have staying power?
Dennis Scully
Well, you know, it's funny that I end up being the one to talk about this so much when I think, you know, that in the beginning, I was all making fun of this whole thing, and now I am reaching out constantly to the design community, taking the pulse on where they stand on micro trends. And it is hilarious. And I hope that people understand that it is somewhat tongue in cheek, because as many designers replied to me immediately, these trends have actually been around for a very long time. Long before TikTok, long before TikTok, there was the idea of moving more plants into your home, for example. Yes, that's true. But I did think that a lot of people were very passionate about color drenching, which was one that, again, perhaps has been around for a long time, but I think is talked about a lot more recently than perhaps it ever was. And I think that that more than anything was one that seemed to resonate. Hosting Core, which seemed to be about, you know, more people having dinner parties. I think that might be drifting away. I don't know. We'll see. I'm always hoping that people want to have more dinner parties, and I certainly enjoy that, but. And the whole idea of vintage Renaissance. Several designers reached out and said, well, you know, we tried this with the whole baroque movement years ago. We were getting giant paintings of men in pantaloons. But I think the ones that seem to resonate the most with people. And our friend of the show, Kristen Rivoli, wrote in and said of all the ones listed there, the vintage Renaissance color drenching and the whole biophilic which didn't necessarily just mean putting a plant on the floor, as in the picture that we showed in the El decorp piece, but those seem to be the ones with staying power. What's your sense, Fred? What are people telling you?
Fred Niklas
I've never even heard of hosting Core. That seems like a lazy micro trend that just seems to be adding the word core exactly to the end of sofa core. Have a place to sit in a room with the latest and greatest. Yeah, I mean, I think I'm less interested, with all due respect to Julia Cancia, in which of these trends actually will last and more in the phenomenon that you rightly pointed out at the beginning of the reality that most of these micro trends are just kind of repackaged or remarketed ideas that have been in the design discourse, frankly, forever. And I think that it's interesting, I was working on this piece last year that never came to be, which was, I think the provisional headline was how much for a Micro Trend? And the idea was I was going to go around to all these vendors, all these companies like Wayfair, and try and figure out, well, okay, when a micro trend goes viral on TikTok, how much money does everybody make? How. How much money did Coastal Grandma generate for Serena and Lily? Probably a pretty penny. But I think it was difficult in the end because people wouldn't share numbers of courses as they never want to do. But I think what was interesting about it to me was the reality that probably in almost all of these cases, the real winner is TikTok. It just generates engagement. It gets you to look at it again. It gets people involved with the platform. They click on the link, they're like, oh, what's this again? And then they're scrolling through all the endless content. And so I don't know, I think these micro trends are really fun and funny, and I will always talk about them on the Thursday show. But I think what this article really exemplified to me is really how much they are simply a product of our weird broken attention economy more than they are of anything. Not to end on a downer, but that's my very philosophical take on this particular issue.
Dennis Scully
Well, and I think to add on to that point, which is a good one, I think that TikTok has served partially as a tool to sort of bring back some of these things from the past. And if a whole new generation wants to think that they were the first ones to discover Renaissance paintings being hung in a room or plants being put around or having dinner parties, you know, great, let them think that, let them.
Fred Niklas
Think that uniquely Gen Z phenomenon, right?
Dennis Scully
I mean, I seem to recall my parents had a lot of dinner parties, but so it didn't really feel new to me. But I mean, so I think TikTok has been a really fun way of packaging these and showing these and honestly making it fun. And if there's a new feeling of discovery around all of these, great. If it's another way for people to go back and look at some of these great rooms that are examples of some of these design trends, then again, I'm all for it. If it's an educational tool and getting people excited about design, I'm here for it all day long. And frankly, I don't know where we are with Tick Tock. Is Tick Tock going away, Fred? Is it not going away? I don't even Here we are talking about it and I feel like it's another thing that we've just kind of moved on. We've just kind of assumed it's gotten to pass. But we might have to be talking about it soon because I think some deal has to happen with TikTok.
Fred Niklas
So we already spent half an hour on tariffs. I don't think. I don't think I have the energy to get into that.
Dennis Scully
Not right now. We'll have to revisit TikTok and its future sometime again soon. In the meantime, that's it for the news. But there's plenty more to check out on businessofhome.com including Sean Lowe's advice for taking control of a project schedule and how one designer duo navigated a business breakup. We'll be back in a minute, but first, a quick break. We're taking a quick break from the show to hear about Hector Finch, who's a proud sponsor of this year's Kips Bay Decorator Show House in Palm Beach. Visit February 22 through March 16 to see how the company collaborated with designers throughout the house to install lighting products in seven rooms. And while you're in town, be sure to also visit the new Benjamin Peterson showroom at 1200 North Dixie highway in Lake Worth, where you can see a wide range of fixtures from the Hector Finch Collection. See the collection online@heworfinch.com and buy tickets to visit the show house at kipsbay decoratorshowhouse.org this season, Jaipur Living introduces their new cozy collection of textured rugs bring warmth and style into the home with high, low depths, rich materials and designs that never go out of stock. Whether you're curling up with hot cocoa or Sprucing up your space for spring. Start with the rug. Start with Jaipur Living. Visit JaipurLiving.com to join their trade program and become part of the Jaipur Living family. And now back to the show. And we're back. I am joined now by boh's retail columnist, Warren Shohlberg.
Warren Shohlberg
Warren.
Dennis Scully
Warren, welcome back to the show.
Warren Shohlberg
Good to be welcomed back many places. I'm no longer welcome back, so thank you.
Dennis Scully
I've heard that and we'll have that discussion later, Warren. But for now, it sounds like you were warmly welcomed at many of the trade shows going on around the country in the early part of the year. And you just wrote a column for us about some of the winter retail shows. I'm curious to hear what some of the highlights were in Atlanta and Dallas and elsewhere.
Warren Shohlberg
So I was on the circuit, I like to call it the fun way. And it was surprisingly positive, pretty much across the board. And a lot of that was reflective of the fact that retail for holiday was a little better than expected. I think people had been and kind of unsure what was going to happen, and it turned out that retailers did a little better than had been forecast. So it's an amazing concept that when you sell stuff, you need to go out and buy more of it to replace it. So we saw some of that, and I think that was a real positive. And. And, you know, I don't want to be Pollyanna ish. There is certainly a lot of dark clouds hovering around, which we can discuss as we get on here, but the markets were okay.
Dennis Scully
Well, what I'm curious about is when people are feeling positive, how does that show up? So it seems like attendance, for example, was strong at these shows, which is usually a pretty good. Good indicator of how people are feeling. Yes.
Warren Shohlberg
Yeah, I'd say we're almost back to pre Covid levels kind of across the board. So that was a positive. I think that's good. And always remember, the January shows are much stronger than the summer shows, so the attendance was pretty good.
Dennis Scully
It sounds as though you feel as though many companies had drawn down inventory levels over the holiday. I know inventory levels had been a concern over the past year or so. People had a lot of inventory. Sounds like they've finally been able to draw that down and they're going back to shows, looking to stock back up. Was there anything in particular that jumped out at you? I know you mentioned in your column in Dallas, for example, we get to see Mitchell Gold and Bob Williams space again. And was that impressive? Were you blown away by that?
Warren Shohlberg
It Was sure nice to see them. I was as skeptical as anybody that that would actually ever happen. But they were showing classic Mitchell and Bob products. Mitchell was there fronting the display. And I think he's realistic that this is now a different business under its new owner, Surya, but that it's back, they're not talking about opening stores, and. And mostly what they're gonna be doing is selling to designers. So you're talking about a different business model. But it was nice to see that in Dallas and in New York, which has two competing shows that have a delicate detente in trying to cooperate. The Shop Object show moved to a new location in the Starrett Lehigh building, which is on the west side in the 20s. Great old building, great location. They had much more room. They had almost 800 exhibitors, and that's up from 500 and change in their last show at the previous location. So that was nice. And I'd say that for better or worse, that's now the larger of the two shows in New York. The New York now shows, which some of us who are ancient remember as a New York gift show has. It continues to be downsized and it's kind of stabilized, but it's significantly smaller than it used to be.
Dennis Scully
Well, so. And what does that speak to, Warren? So why does that show continue to get downsized? Does that tell us something about the retailers that are just no longer in existence, that were the big customers there or. Or what's the story?
Warren Shohlberg
It's a number of factors, some of which were their own doing, some of which were beyond their control. You know, I think New York as a market center still has validity for. As a regional event because you saw the traffic at Shop was pretty strong, and the traffic at New York now was not terrible. It just. The exhibitor base continues to shrink. So. So Atlanta pulled away a lot of the big national brands that used to show in New York. So New York is now a regional market, and it's probably going to stay that way. And if I were a betting man, and I don't have any money, so I'm not a betting man, but if I were, I'd say those two shows are going to have to find a way to. To consolidate and work with each other better. But clearly these markets can't support two competing shows. So something will happen.
Dennis Scully
Something will happen. Okay, stay tuned for that. We spoke to our editor in chief, Caitlin Peterson, when she got back from Las Vegas. She was pretty upbeat about that show. And lots of the biggest big high point furniture companies were Showing there and seemed to be pretty enthusiastic. What have you heard about how that show went and how people were feeling?
Warren Shohlberg
Caitlin's take was pretty consistent with what I heard from companies that were there. Some new furniture guys showed up that hadn't been there before. They've struggled with furniture recently. Also saw a little. A little more gift mud pie, a big gift brand returned to Vegas for the first time. And the Vegas market, you have to remember, is the national market for the mattress business. This is where all the mattress guys have their main showroom. So that's kind of a foundation of that show and keeps it viable. But again, other than mattresses, Las Vegas is very much a regional show.
Dennis Scully
And can we use mattresses as an indicator for other parts of the industry? Does the mattress business tell us anything interesting?
Warren Shohlberg
Usually the mattress business holds up better than anything else on the big ticket furnishing side. And mattress guys have struggled. They. They have not had two good years, and I'm not sure what their forecast for this year is. But until we see the housing market come back, the mattress guys are going to continue to have some struggle. So mattresses are usually a leading indicator. And right now, now they're still indicating softness in the broader furniture sector.
Dennis Scully
Yeah, that was a fear that I had. And interesting that you mentioned the housing market. I'm wondering. I'm still of the belief that despite all of the tariff talk and all of the many unsettling potential proposals with some of our trading partners, I'm still of the belief that the housing market is the much bigger driver or the much bigger challenge for the industry in general at the moment. What do you say?
Warren Shohlberg
Absolutely. 2024. Finished with the lowest number of housing starts that we've seen. I don't know, 20 years, something like that. So we all know the dynamics of the furniture business, which is that people buy furniture when they move into a new house, and they buy furniture and fix up their house when they're getting ready, ready to sell it. So neither one of those things is happening. And so you got two big drivers for furniture that we're just not seeing. And so housing prices are still really high, and current homeowners have a lot of equity built up in their homes. So if they chose to, they could take that equity and fix up their houses. And there's hope that that's going to happen, but we're still not seeing that to any large scale.
Dennis Scully
So staying with tariffs for a moment, I'm sure that people must have been talking about them as you chatted with people and the new administration has made several different announcements about Canada and Mexico and then dialed some of them back. But still pushing forward on the China tariff tariffs. What were people saying? Are people moving in one direction or another to adjust to all of this? What's your sense?
Warren Shohlberg
Well, there was a lot of screaming, I can imagine. You've got two factors here, I think. One is the tariffs themselves. And what we saw during the first Trump administration when there were increased tariffs, was that most companies figured out a way to adjust. But it's the chaos created by the uncertainty that probably bothers people more. You mentioned that some of these things were announced, Mexico and Canada and then were dialed back in 24 hours this week just announced tariffs on. On steel. And we don't know if those are gonna stay. And you just don't know. And I think that's what's making everybody crazy, is we don't know what to do. So you had some companies showing at gift markets who had big signs outside their showroom saying, we're gonna guarantee our prices this week regardless of what happens to tariffs.
Dennis Scully
Oh, really? Okay. So sending a clear message that they were gonna do whatever they had to do, prices where they are. Interesting. Historically, the furniture industry has dealt with tariffs a lot. I remember the anti dumping legislations right in the early 2000s when we were trying to fight back. And as you say, so much of this never really led to the level of reshoring that I think a lot of people had hoped. All these different, different levers and all these different taxes and tariffs never brought a huge part of that business home. And honestly, I'm not sure it really ever will. Right. There's no way we can meet the China efficiency levels or Vietnam even. Right?
Warren Shohlberg
Yeah. China's really good at this. And they've been doing it for 40 years. And you have to remember that, that if you're making a piece of furniture, it's not just. It's not that simple. First of all, you gotta find the workers who know how to make that piece of furniture. And the workers in the US have moved on from making furniture. You don't have the labor force. And then what china is really good at is that internal supply chain. So if you're making a piece of furniture, you need to deal with a company that makes the stains and finishing materials. You need to find the company that makes the handles and the knobs for that furniture. And if you're making upholstery, you need a company that makes the springs and the fabrics and the frames. And China was really good at establishing that network. Just saying, I'm going to open a furniture factory in North Carolina. You don't know where to get all those components. This near shoring or onshoring thing is much more complicated. And frankly, it's a political scam. When people say manufacturing coming back to the United States, it's not.
Dennis Scully
Well, I mean, it's interesting because. And there are certainly some specialty companies that make furniture in the U.S. i mean, obviously. But on the scale that we're talking about with some of the big companies that regularly show at High Point, for example, it's just hard to imagine that the RHS of the world or the bakers of the world or some of the big companies can ever really, in a meaningful way bring production back to the US at that scale and the price point. I mean, sure, you can do it, but to your point about the labor force, it's just impossible to meet those numbers. So that does seem challenging. And it makes me wonder what all the tariff talk really ultimately then does. If it's not going to bring manufacturing back, what does it do? They act as if it's going to pay down the debt or be a big revenue generator. But ultimately it's hard to imagine that it does. It doesn't drive up prices or just, as you were saying, create uncertainty.
Warren Shohlberg
It's something that is red meat for his supporters who just hear it and say, wow, that's great, we love it. But in reality, it's not achieving anywhere near what any goals might be. So. So again, in my opinion, you have to remember that somewhere between 75 and 85% of all the wooden furniture sold in the United States is not made here anymore.
Dennis Scully
Yeah, no, no, no, good point. Another story that you wrote for us recently and that I want to talk about in the context of retail in general, is you wrote that 2025 is starting off with a wave of store closures. I'm trying to sort of put it in context. I mean, Big Lots and the Artists, formerly known as Lumber Liquidators, some of those stores, right, needed to go away for various financial reasons. But what's your sense of all of that? And do you think that we've sort of starting to. To hit bottom with all those store closers or what's your take?
Warren Shohlberg
You know, you had a big consulting company, Coresight Research, say that Therefore they're predicting 15,000 store closings in calendar 25. So that's a big number. But that number includes supermarkets and car washes and car dealerships and. And flower stores and drugstores and so the number's not nearly as staggering as it might seem. But a lot of those stores should go away because they were bad stores. Big Lots was not a well run company and as an off pricer was getting outclassed by Home Goods and homesense. So, so just bad stores. And so it's like those of us who are anxiously waiting for spring training to start in baseball. You know, bad teams are going to finish last because they're bad teams. And so you got a lot of bad stores and they're going to finish last. And then you got the champions who are going to do well. So again, I think, yeah, a lot of store closings, but a lot of store openings too.
Dennis Scully
I guess what I'm wondering in all of this, when the Stumps went to Vegas, the merger and acquisition financier company, they came away saying that they felt that there was. If people weren't necessarily feeling positive, they were at least feeling more hopeful. Do you get that sense as well that they haven't seen a meaningful recovery in sales yet, but they feel like it's closer?
Warren Shohlberg
I do feel it's closer, but I felt the Same way in 24 and it just didn't happen. We didn't see mortgage rates come down and in some cases, for God knows what reason, some of them actually went up, which I don't understand. You look at the demographics and this millennial generation and also the, the Gen Zs right behind them, they're in their prime family formation portions of their life. This is the time when those people are buying houses. And if millennials got married and started families later than Gen X and later than much later than boomers, they're going to buy houses later. But later is here. So you've still got this big bulge in the consumption curve that these guys are going to buy houses. And by houses, this is condos and co ops and townhouses, whatever. But it's going to happen. It's delayed and it's delayed more than anybody thought. Certainly Covid didn't help any of this. So I still think there's good things coming. I just have given up saying exactly when that is.
Dennis Scully
Well, I mean, I think to your point, at some point the dam is going to burst. Unfortunately, it doesn't look like rates are coming down in a meaningful way anytime soon. And so my fear is that we can't get too overly optimistic for perhaps the upcoming markets and furniture sales because it's just not happening yet. And to your point, we don't know yet.
Warren Shohlberg
We don't know, but there's a little nuance to all of this, which is that the percentage of people renting is higher than it had been historically. And I think maybe the home furnishings industry needs to target renters. Renters more so than homeowners. And, you know, the best example I always use of that is in the lighting business. If you're trying to reach a homeowner, you're selling them hardwired lighting and chandeliers and things like that. Renters don't buy that. They buy lamps because they're taking it with them. So, you know, I think whatever your business is, you've got to look and say, ok, okay, what does a renter want versus a homeowner? And am I answering that? And do I have the products in my store or in my line that those people want? And that rental market is an important element. And I'm not sure everybody's paying as much attention to it as they should.
Dennis Scully
Well, that's the hopeful message that we'll leave it on and help. Hopefully this will be a time for renters to thrive. But in the meantime, Warren, thank you so much for joining us. I really appreciate you making the time.
Warren Shohlberg
You know, there's always another show coming and there's always another good indicator of how business is, so stay tuned.
Dennis Scully
Absolutely. Well, we'll certainly check back in with you and hopefully I will get to see you at High Point in the spring.
Warren Shohlberg
Sounds good. I'll be at Krispy Kreme if you need me.
Dennis Scully
Okay. And we're back. We're getting to the end of the show here, but before we go, we'd like to take a second to highlight anything going on in the industry that might have caught our eye. Fred, what caught your eye?
Fred Niklas
Change at the top at Anmore caught my eye. So Anmore, of course, formerly known as imc, is, you know, one of the design industry's biggest landlords. They own a lot of High Point Vegas market, adac. There are some interesting things going on there. So it was reported in Furniture Today, and we got news of it as well, that Dorothy Belshaw, who was a president at Anmore, who's been there for 13 years, was moving into an advisory role. And there was a lot of new announcements of executive vice presidents. That's just kind of interesting because Dorothy is very beloved figure on sort of the more gift side of the industry and had been there a long time and was really seen as an industry insider who'd done a lot to help shape, shape their strategy around, you know, around Vegas. And it was just surprising because she was so well liked and you know, now she's in an advisory role as opposed to being president. You know, the new CEO, John Perchick, who's been there for a year, appears to be kind of making anmore, you know, remaking and more a little bit in his own image. But it's not totally clear to me like what, what they want to do. You know, they had their digital market but they pulled back on that. You know, they, they did the big name change. I guess my big question is kind of what happens next? Maybe we can, maybe we can get John Perchick to come on the show to talk about it, but there's things going on there. I just, I don't quite know what to make of them just yet. And I know that a lot of people really, really like Dorothy and so be interesting to see what she does next too as well.
Dennis Scully
Yeah, absolutely. And I think we should try and get him on because as you say, I wasn't entirely clear what these changes mean. It seems like, it seems like some big changes happening, but I, I wasn't sure what the long term plan is there, so I, I look forward to learning more.
Fred Niklas
What caught your eye this week, Dennis?
Dennis Scully
Two things caught my eye. One was a big comings and goings. The, the very first guest of the Business of Home podcast, Beth Brenner, former publisher at Domino, among many other positions, is now the the Director of Partnerships at the Design Leadership Network. So that's an exciting announcement and I'm eager to see what that means for that organization. And congratulations to Beth. I'm sure that she will bring a lot of energy and ideas to that position.
Fred Niklas
Agreed. Congrats, Beth on the dln. Right?
Dennis Scully
Absolutely. The other thing that caught my eye is actually something that's come together at the PDC in LA as a result, in part of the announcement that they were going to postpone West Week, several of the big showrooms there got together upon hearing that news. And neither Faucher and Mimi London and Quintus and Thomas Lavin wanted to do something for the community there. So they've put together for the Love of Home, which is a big fire relief fundraiser that's going to happen on March 19th at the PDC. And the proceeds of the event are going to benefit four different charities that are all involved in helping LA through the fires. And they've, they put together a great group of people who are going to come and talk. They reached out to me and asked me if I would come and, and moderate. And so it's and I said yes, I would. So I will be out there in la and this is going to be, I hope, a really great event where people can come together and raise some money, but also hear from some people who might have some sage advice as to how everyone can best get through all of this and talk about what happens next and rebuilding and the future there. But all these companies that are making this possible really wanted the community to be able to come together and I'm so glad that they asked me to come and participate.
Fred Niklas
Well, I'm sure it'll be a great event and absolutely, we're definitely going to keep talking about what's going on in la, because rebuilding both Altadena and the Palace Stage is going to involve a lot of interesting pushes and pulls and there's going to be a lot of conversations about fireproofing homes and insurance. And I do think it's a topic that we'll be sure to come back to in future episodes. So glad you're going to be able to make it. It sounds like a blockbuster and we will certainly be Talking more about LA's recovery for sure in the months ahead.
Dennis Scully
Absolutely. And if you want to learn more, you can check out their site, which is for the loveofhome.info. all right, that's all the time we have today. Thanks so much for listening. If you want to keep up with the latest news, browse job listings or take a workshop, visit us online@businessofhome.com if you want to get in touch with the show, write to us at podcast@businessofhome.com. this episode was produced by Fred Nicholaus and Caroline Burke and edited by Michael Castaneda. I'm Dennis Scully. Have a great weekend and we'll be back with you on Monday.
Business of Home Podcast Summary
Episode: The Thursday Show: What Makes for a Good Trade Program? Plus: The Mood in Home Retail
Release Date: February 13, 2025
Host: Dennis Scully
Guest: Fred Niklas (Executive Editor, Business of Home) & Warren Shohlberg (Retail Columnist, Business of Home)
The episode kicks off with Dennis Scully engaging in a light-hearted conversation with Fred Niklas about the recent Super Bowl. Despite neither being avid football fans, Dennis notes a surprising level of engagement among designers in rooting for various teams. This camaraderie highlights a sense of community within the interior design industry, as Dennis remarks:
"It's a moment where so many people are coming together and experiencing the same thing. [...] Quite a few people seem to be actually much more excited about it than I thought they would be." (01:12)
They also briefly touch upon a previous episode featuring Benjamin Noriega Ortiz, emphasizing his candid insights on the design industry.
Fred Niklas delves into recent developments surrounding the Floss BNB Italia Group, a significant player in the European design brand conglomerate. The sudden resignation of CEO Danielle Lalonde has sparked rumors about the group's possible sale of its furniture division. Fred explains:
"The group is entertaining offers to sell off its furniture division. [...] This was totally a surprise when Danielle Lalonde suddenly stepped down." (06:42)
Dennis concurs, suggesting that the move aligns with expectations following leadership changes and the typical exit strategies of private equity investments. They discuss potential bidders like Haworth Group and the implications for the luxury home retail market, particularly highlighting RH (formerly Restoration Hardware) as a potential indirect beneficiary.
"It's possible they won't unroll all these companies or it's possible that BNB Italia will end up being stronger on its own [...] a tacit admission that putting all these brains together maybe hasn't worked quite as well to unseat RH from its perch." (11:27)
The conversation shifts to the impact of tariffs on the design and furniture industries. Fred breaks down the complexities of the de minimis exemption and its recent challenges under the Trump administration.
"The de minimis exemption is something that has been baked into US Trade law for a long time, [...] it's been in place because there's so many hundreds of thousands of packages coming in." (14:55)
Dennis highlights the evolving nature of these policies and their potential repercussions on pricing and supply chains:
"If there's a 25% tax on all imported steel, [...] it's hard to imagine they will not have to pass along those additional costs, and that seems to defeat what all of this is about." (20:15)
They collectively express concerns over the uncertainty these tariffs introduce, which can be more disruptive than the tariffs themselves.
Transitioning to the core topic, Fred and Dennis discuss insights from Fred's feature article where he and Aidan Taylor consulted with over a dozen designers about effective trade programs. Key takeaways include:
Reduced Order Minimums: Designers appreciate lower or no minimum order requirements, making it easier to collaborate without hefty financial commitments.
"The minimums were going down like it wasn't quite as high as they used to be." (25:25)
Price Protection: Maintaining consistent pricing to preserve the trust between designers and their clients is paramount. Discrepancies can undermine designer-client relationships.
"If you can't offer a great margin, then why shop with you?" (28:49)
Service Excellence: Outstanding after-sales service, including handling defects and issues promptly, is the top deal-breaker for designers when evaluating trade programs.
"Brands not delivering good after-sales service was just over and over again the most frustrating thing that designers talked about." (32:15)
Dennis adds that proactive engagement and support from brands can significantly enhance designer loyalty, even if immediate solutions like free replacements aren’t always feasible.
Fred and Dennis explore the longevity of current micro trends in interior design, scrutinizing their roots and true impact beyond fleeting social media popularity.
Color Drenching & Biophilic Design: These trends have historical precedence and resonate deeply with designers for their timeless appeal.
"The vintage Renaissance color drenching and the whole biophilic [...] seem to be the ones with staying power." (35:45)
Impact of TikTok: While TikTok popularizes these trends, Fred suggests that the platform primarily boosts engagement rather than creating entirely new design movements.
"These micro trends are really fun and funny, and I will always talk about them on the Thursday show. But I think what this article really exemplified to me is really how much they are simply a product of our weird broken attention economy more than they are of anything." (37:26)
Dennis acknowledges the role of TikTok in reviving classic design elements, fostering both nostalgia and educational value within the community.
"TikTok has been a really fun way of packaging these and showing these and honestly making it fun." (37:54)
Guest: Warren Shohlberg
Warren Shohlberg joins the discussion to provide an external perspective on recent retail shows and the overall mood in the home retail sector.
Warren shares observations from various trade shows in Atlanta, Dallas, Las Vegas, and New York:
Atlanta & Dallas: Strong attendance indicative of a cautiously optimistic industry sentiment. Noteworthy was Mitchell Gold and Bob Williams'复 appearance, signaling strategic shifts under new ownership.
"Mitchell was there fronting the display [...] they're going to be doing is selling to designers." (43:27)
New York Shows: Shop Object Show has expanded significantly at its new location, whereas the traditional New York show has downsized, reflecting shifting regional dynamics.
"Atlanta pulled away a lot of the big national brands that used to show in New York. So New York is now a regional market, and it's probably going to stay that way." (45:18)
Warren discusses the ongoing trend of store closures, emphasizing that while many closures involve underperforming retailers, there remains a glimmer of hope tied to the housing market.
"75 to 85% of all the wooden furniture sold in the United States is not made here anymore." (54:57)
Dennis and Warren concur that the housing market remains the critical driver for the furniture industry. With housing starts at their lowest in decades, the lack of new homeowners directly impacts furniture sales.
"People buy furniture when they move into a new house [...] neither one of those things is happening." (48:50)
Warren also highlights the importance of targeting renters, who represent a significant portion of the market, especially in urban areas where mobility is higher.
"The home furnishings industry needs to target renters more so than homeowners." (60:03)
Fred Niklas brings attention to recent executive shifts at Anmore, a key player in the design industry. The transition of Dorothy Belshaw from President to an advisory role under new CEO John Perchick suggests strategic realignments.
"Dorothy is very beloved [...] the new CEO appears to be remaking Anmore in his own image." (61:55)
Dennis announces his participation as a moderator for the "Love of Home" fundraiser, a collaborative effort by major showrooms to support fire relief in LA. This event underscores the industry's commitment to community support and resilience in the face of natural disasters.
"All these companies that are making this possible really wanted the community to be able to come together and I'm so glad that they asked me to come and participate." (64:07)
Dennis wraps up the episode by encouraging listeners to stay engaged with ongoing industry developments and upcoming events. He highlights the importance of adaptability and community support as the interior design and home retail sectors navigate through economic uncertainties and evolving market demands.
"We're going to keep talking about what's going on in LA, because rebuilding both Altadena and the Palace Stage is going to involve a lot of interesting pushes and pulls." (66:07)
Listeners are invited to stay connected through the Business of Home website for the latest news, job listings, and workshops.
Notable Quotes with Timestamps:
Dennis Scully (01:12): "It's a moment where so many people are coming together and experiencing the same thing."
Fred Niklas (06:42): "The group is entertaining offers to sell off its furniture division."
Fred Niklas (14:55): "The de minimis exemption is something that has been baked into US Trade law for a long time."
Dennis Scully (20:15): "If there's a 25% tax on all imported steel, [...] it seems to defeat what all of this is about."
Warren Shohlberg (25:25): "The minimums were going down like it wasn't quite as high as they used to be."
Warren Shohlberg (32:15): "Brands not delivering good after-sales service was just over and over again the most frustrating thing that designers talked about."
Fred Niklas (35:45): "The vintage Renaissance color drenching and the whole biophilic [...] seem to be the ones with staying power."
Dennis Scully (37:54): "TikTok has been a really fun way of packaging these and showing these and honestly making it fun."
Warren Shohlberg (43:27): "Mitchell was there fronting the display [...] they're going to be doing is selling to designers."
Warren Shohlberg (54:57): "75 to 85% of all the wooden furniture sold in the United States is not made here anymore."
Warren Shohlberg (60:03): "The home furnishings industry needs to target renters more so than homeowners."
This comprehensive summary encapsulates the episode's rich discussions on industry movements, tariff implications, effective trade programs, enduring design trends, and the current landscape of home retail. Designed to inform both regular listeners and newcomers, it provides valuable insights into the challenges and strategies shaping the interior design community.