← Cautionary Tales with Tim Harford
Cautionary Tales with Tim Harford
How Trump is Getting the Game Theory Wrong from Risky Business
00:40:19
Loading summary
Transcript87 lines
- [00:00]
Matt
Foreign.
- [00:09]
Ryan Seacrest
Hey, it's Ryan Seacrest for Albertsons and Safeway. It's Stock up savings time now through March 25th. Spring in for store wide deals and earn four times the points. Look for in store tags to earn on eligible cleaning items from all and Cotton L and dinner essentials from Daisy, Skippy, Hellman's and Barilla plus many more. Then clip the offer in our app for automatic event long savings stack up those rewards to save even more restrictions applied. Visit Albertsons or Safeway.com for more details.
- [00:37]
Matt
Hi, I'm Matt.
- [00:38]
Leah
And I'm Leah and we're from the Grown Up Stuff Podcast and just in.
- [00:41]
Matt
Time for tax season.
- [00:42]
Ryan Seacrest
On this week's episode, we're chatting with.
- [00:44]
Matt
CPA Lisa Green Lewis about how small businesses can tackle their taxes using TurboTax Business.
- [00:49]
Leah
A Forbes study mentioned that a whopping 93% of small businesses overpay their taxes and 17% of Gen Zers that you could write off any expense as a business expense.
- [01:03]
Matt
So can't blame them.
- [01:05]
Leah
It's really important to do your taxes right.
- [01:09]
Matt
Listen to Grown up stuff on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your favorite podcasts.
- [01:16]
Maria Konnikova
Creativity doesn't wait. It moves, shifts, evolves just like you. And with the Yoga PC from Lenovo, your tools finally keep up. Stunning, smart and sustainably sourced yoga PCs from Lenovo are designed designed to amplify your creativity with AI powered performance. Whether you're sketching, editing, animating or composing, yoga moves with you, adapting to your creativity, to your rhythm. With beautiful displays and the flexibility to shift from laptop to tablet, Yoga unlocks new ways to inspire and create. Because at Lenovo we believe your tools should fuel your flow, not hold you back. Yoga PCs from Lenovo support you at every step of your creative journey. So check out lenovo.com yoga and supercharge your creativity with yoga. Empowering creators everywhere.
- [02:22]
Leah
Welcome back to Risky Business, a show about making better decisions. I'm Maria Konnikova.
- [02:27]
Matt
And I'm Nate Silber. Today on the show, we'll talk about the markets and how they're reacting to recent actions by President Trump. You know, I'll just say this much. You know, I think that Cayman Islands bungalow I was hoping to buy has been undermined by the recent performance of my 401k.
- [02:42]
Leah
On a brighter side, Nate, you might have a chance to go to an island off the coast of Mexico because after that we'll be talking about the return of Billy McFarland and Fyre Festival. Take two.
- [02:54]
Matt
Can we pause the show so I can book my tick right now.
- [02:56]
Leah
Let's do it.
- [02:58]
Matt
We're back. I have a, I have a one way. I just want to stay there.
- [03:02]
Leah
Right.
- [03:02]
Matt
I don't even want to make a return flight. Yeah. So we're now, we're now all prepared for Fyre Festival 2. And let's, let's talk a little bit of markets first.
- [03:16]
Leah
So right now, as we are recording this, it is Tuesday, March 4th. And I'm saying that because, Nate, you and I have both seen, I mean, the world has seen, that economic news in this administration changes very quickly. So it's very important to put this in context. So today, Tuesday, Trump has announced tariffs, 25% across the board against Canada and Mexico, 10% against China. Canada and China have announced their own retaliatory tariffs. The markets are not happy. Let's talk about what is going on in people's heads, kind of. What is the decision calculus behind this?
- [03:55]
Matt
Yeah, I mean, it seems like markets are reacting negatively, which is perhaps pretty reasonable. I mean, there are various things going on. Right. Markets like certainty. We don't have a lot of that. I mean, you know, the stock market is not the economy. Right. I think the stock market sometimes is a better measure of economic vibes, and it's a bit mixed. And if you survey, look at surveys of hiring managers and CEOs, I mean, they're generally pretty bullish on Trump, that's one of his bigger constituencies. But, yeah, look, according to Polymarket, to which I'm an advisor, there is now a 38% chance of a United States recession this year. In 2025, that's way up. In recent days, it had been 22%, which is kind of a base rate. About one in five years, you go into a recession, the economy can't be forecasted very well more than about six months in advance, but roughly doubled to almost 40% as a result of the tariffs, as a result of some consumer sentiment data, consumers who did not like the Joe Biden economy. According to the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index, it's now worse than it was last year, which was bad enough to get Biden outed, or Democrats, I guess. Kamala Harris eventually ousted from office. So people are reacting to this on different levels of the economy. Right. And the goodwill that Trump has built up with Wall street types, I think, you know, look, maybe there's some naivety about people thinking. Naiveteer. Naivete. I don't know about people thinking.
- [05:29]
Leah
I said naivete, but I'm not the. I'M not the expert on this.
- [05:32]
Matt
It's a fancy word, but, like, people were on Wall street were, I think, naive about the fact that, like, I mean, Trump is a guy who. I'm not sure you'd always say that. He does what he says he's going to do, but, like, he's pretty liter things. There's something decoding. And he said, yeah, I'm going to have tariffs in Canada and Mexico, beat up the kids and if. If they'll give me their lunch money. And so the other countries are not happy about all of this. By the way, we mentioned this last week, Friedrich Merz, the new German chancellor elect, was like, I don't want anything to do with the US Anymore, Right? That seemed. That seemed bad to me, too. So other countries are noticing the domestic politics of, you know, giving the bully your lunch money. So the different levels of this. But nobody likes this phenomenon.
- [06:20]
Leah
No, nobody likes this phenomenon. And I think the markets have. You know, it's very funny, Nate, because the markets, I think, are yo yoing much more than usual because of the uncertainty. And no one knows, you know, what the hell is going to happen, what Trump is actually going to do, because they really, after the initial, right. You remember they went down when, back in February, when Trump was saying, oh, we're going to have tariffs. And then they, like, rallied and Northern rallied. They went crazy, right when it was like, oh, right. We. We always knew that they were going to not, you know, not have the tariffs. They want to believe, right? Like, I think that there's this market sentiment. They want to believe in Trump. It's kind of what you were saying, that Wall street has been on his side and they want the markets to rally. And so they've taken every excuse to try to rally. And now it was like, oh, shit, right. The tariffs are actually being implemented. And he said, they're, like, done, right? We've implemented the tariffs. The trade war has started. And part of me is like, guys like, you should have foreseen this, right? This built in. You should have known this was coming. So now we're seeing this huge correction. Actually, NASDAQ isn't a correction by the technical sense, so we've officially entered a correction. And the reason this is happening, I think, is because of this disconnect, right? You want to believe in Trump and then he does something like this, and you're like, oops, shit. He said he was going to do it, and then he actually did it. He didn't listen to reason. Because I think that people misunderstand that he's actually going to listen to advisors, listen to this, and realize this is not the good, good thing that you think it is for the economy. Right. Inflation is going to go up, prices are going to go up. Tariffs on China, not a good thing, because prices are going to go up, our exports are going to suffer. There are so many downstream effects, and people have been saying, oh, he'll understand, and he won't actually do it, but he did it. I think a broader point, though, is that I actually, I think that Trump is misunderstanding kind of the game theory of what he's doing. So fundamentally, we talk about game theory a lot on this show. Fundamentally, what you want is in order to figure out the game and the strategy, you need to figure out what the payoff matrix is. That's number one. To know what game we're playing, you need to figure out, okay, what are the payoffs? What is the structure of the game to figure out what quadrant do I want to land in, what do I want to do? What do I want my policy to actually accomplish in everything? So I think the economy is part of this. But we're seeing this with just Trump's America first policy in general, with him kind of burning alliances with the outrageous way that he behaved towards Zelensky, going back on US Promises, basically just burning bridges left and right and saying, we don't need allies. He's behaving as if, oh, we don't need Europe, we don't need China, we don't need Canada, we don't need Mexico. America can do this alone. And I think that it's a misunderstanding of the payoff matrix. I think that he actually doesn't understand that something that all Republican presidents have understood up until this point, which is that America first, you need the alliances in order for security and American prosperity, that you actually can't go it alone and that you have, that's a fundamental miscalculation of the game that you're playing. And he thinks that if I try to bully everyone, then all of a sudden I'm going to be kind of king of the world. And that's not the way that it works. That's not the way that people respond. And I think that he's going to end up in the wrong quadrant and unfortunately, America with him while these policies are in place. And you'll see that in economic blowback, you'll see that in political blowback, you'll see that probably in a recession, you'll see all sorts of downstream effects of these policies. That I don't think. I certainly can't even begin to imagine what that's going to look like. But it does come from this misunderstanding of what truly America first would mean. What do you need in order for. In order to get into the quadrant where America's doing well and thinking that you can do it by yourself, by burning out bridges is wrong.
- [10:32]
Matt
We're not asking Trump to put anyone other than America first. Right. We're saying that Trump's first of all. A lot of people, this misunderstanding. Right. They assume that game theory only applies to zero sum games. And I guess it's narrowly true that the first problems in game theory concern primarily zero sum games. But most games are cooperative games or they're mixed games, right?
- [10:54]
Leah
Yeah, they're positive sum.
- [10:56]
Matt
If you and I are like negotiating together a contract, let's say a sponsor wanted to sponsor the show, but they wanted to negotiate with us individually and they had like a fixed pool of money. Right. So we both have cooperative and adversarial incentives. On the one hand, we both lose if we do. Let's do some ad reading in the show. We both lose if the deal breaks up because we can't come to an agreement. On the other hand, we might have some trade off between what you want and what I want. Most games are kind of more like that. And the game of international trade, if my country manufactures autos really well and your country has really nice coffee beans, just based on the factors of production in our respective markets, like, you know, if I'm shitty at making coffee, what country is bad at making coffee? Who's bad at making coffee?
- [11:51]
Leah
I mean, I mean, let's put Germany there's. I don't think there's a. Germany does not grow coffee. And I don't think they.
- [11:57]
Matt
Germany good at cars, bad at coffee.
- [12:01]
Leah
There you go.
- [12:02]
Matt
Yeah. The German. You don't want the Germans to make their own coffee? Their own. Have you ever had fucking like tacos in Germany? It's a disaster. Right? We want Germany to import coffee and tacos and sell pharmaceutical shit and cars and watches and all the things that Germans are pilsner. We want trade that actually is not zero sum. Even the prisoner's dilemma, the most famous problem in game theory is actually about what happens when people cannot cooperate and they behave zero sum because they think they're going to be cheated.
- [12:31]
Leah
Yep, exactly. Exactly. I think that's also a misunderstanding of the prisoner's dilemma. And by the way, game theory, we talk about the prisoner's dilemma a lot because that's kind of the most famous game. But game theory is not just the prisoner's dilemma, right? So many people just think that, oh, game theory, prisoner's dilemma. No, there are so many coordination games. There's so many, you know, there are so many different games at play here. And you know what Thomas Schelling could have got the Nobel prize for? Was describing that all of these strategies are incredibly nuanced and that you're like the madman. Strategy is what happens when you act like a madman. Literally, that you're capable of doing anything. Like, sure, I'll rip out my steering wheel so that I can't actually have my car veer off course and I have to go straight. Sure, I'm going to drop the nukes. I could do anything. It might work in a very, very limited scenario, but it can also lead to the end of the world. And it's not a good strategy. Right? Like at the end of the day, that's not, that's not how you're going to accomplish your goals. That's not how you're going to put yourself in the winning position. And so I would even argue like, like you said, we're not saying put anyone but America first. Like in order for America to prosper, you need to coordinate, you need to cooperate, you need to forge alliances. Like that is the backbone of the global order. And that's why America has been doing so well, because it has had this sort of kind of benign influen and people have built up goodwill and that evaporates in a second. And then what happens? What happens when you try to be kind of the bully and the person who says do what I say or else, and people realize, oh, we can't trust you right now. You're actually forcing people into exactly what you said with the prisoner's dilemma, where it's in both people's interests to try to coordinate but you can't because you think that you're going to be cheated. You think that you cannot actually, you're not talking with a reliable partner. I mean, that's everything. We're also in a repeated game, right? This is not a one shot game. This is the global order. It's a repeated game. Reputation matters. Reputation is crucial when you're playing a repeated game.
- [14:45]
Matt
Yeah. And if you look at empirical deviations from game theory, or maybe they're kind of rational on a deeper level. There are two primary characteristics, which is that at first people are actually more cooperative in the prisoner's dilemma than game theory might predict. Right. They kind of Assume, hey, even without any explicit coordination, that we're all shared humanity and these people are probably going to help a stranger out as a default maybe, right? But then when they feel betrayed, people really seek revenge. And you could argue it's rational over some very long run period because that like, if you seek revenge even to your own destruction, then people will be much more reluctant to fuck with you. But revenge seeking seems to be like, very ingrained. And also like, I've been trying to think about like the analogy of, of Canada and Mexico and what position they're in and like, yeah, you can use the analogy of like they are, are the bullies, but it's like more like they get it both ways though, right? The analogy is more like maybe you have like a boss does a little bit of sexual harassing here and there, right? And you're like, well, do I want to like blow up my employment or cause a whole controversy by pointing out that this is inappropriate conduct? Right. But also like, maybe their like coworkers are like super concerned about this kind of thing, right? And the coworkers say, if you don't stand to the boss, we're going to disown you and ostracize you. Right? So like you have like, they're really kind of not in a good position either way. It's often about kind of calculating what the least worst outcome is. This is not a good thing for Canada and Mexico. It makes all their options worse. By the way, some of the reason why the bullying, why he is bullying them is because Canadian and Mexican imports are like 2% of US GDP each, like 1.5% or something. We make a lot of our own stuff. We're a big country. We have other trading partners, although many of them are also under tariffs or threat of tariffs. But if we had to go it alone, it might be enough to put the economy into recession. But like for Mexico or Canada, if you shut off the borders, it would send them to a profound crisis. There might be spillover effects, but we are the more powerful entity in this scenario. But still, yeah, even in poker, the big stack doesn't want to unnecessarily antagonize the short stack. And even the big stack would rather not get into unnecessary confrontations.
- [17:16]
Leah
Absolutely. And if the big stack misplays that. So a lot of people, once they get a big stack, they just, they think that you're supposed to bully everyone, right? You're supposed to raise every hand, especially if you're getting, if you're on the bubble, which is the money point of the poker tournament or the final table, you know, they just go crazy and that's how they bust and lose their big stack, right? Because people start seeing what they're doing, they start fighting back. And small stacks have a ton of power, right? Because if you are a big stack who's constantly opening and I have say 10 big blinds I can shove on you and, and if you're, you know, once that happens a few times, you either have to fold, right, and there goes two big blinds, or however much you raised, or you call me and I actually have a hand and you lose 10 big blinds, right? And now I'm suddenly a 20 big blind stack. And this can happen over and over. And I've actually seen really big stacks just dwindle instead of becoming big. When people realize that, oh, hey, I can push back here, right, I have a perfectly sized amount of chips to actually really be in a position to fight back because I can hurt you. And instead of a chip leader, you're going to go to medium sized stack. But yeah, no, that's a very big misconception. And just to go back to what you were saying a little bit, you were talking about the evolutionary psych of game theory, but there's actually also just some straight up history of game theory when computers and different strategies were set up against each other to try to figure out what does the best. And, and the first strategy that ended up doing well, so this goes back to your kind of retaliatory thing is tit for tat, right? So you start off cooperating and if the other person cooperates, you're in a cooperative loop, right? So you end up in this cooperative loop. Everyone's great. If they stop, then tit for tat, right? So if they defect, then you start defecting and all of a sudden you're in a tit for tat strategy. You're no longer in a cooperative roof. So that strategy won and then another strategy beat it. And that strategy was instead of tit for tat, tit for two tats. So basically you let that harassment go on a little bit, you give them a shot. So you don't defect immediately. You actually kind of wait because what if that defection was a mistake, right? What if there was something else going on? What if the person got distracted? Let's give give people a better shot. And tit for two tats ended up being the winning strategy. So that was kind of the thing that beat everyone. But clearly at this point we're not in that anymore. Because at some point you do have to retaliate and you're out of the cooperative spiral. And those strategies, by the way, do a lot worse. So those are not winning strategies. So, so it's, it's, I think that's kind of where we are.
- [20:11]
Matt
And we'll be right back after this break.
- [20:22]
Ryan Seacrest
Hey, it's Ryan Seacrest for Albertsons and Safeway. It's stock up savings time now through March 25th. Spring in for storewide deals and earn four times the points. Look for in store tags to earn on eligible cleaning items from all and cotton links and dinner essentials from Daisy, Skippy, Hellman's and Barilla, plus many more. Then clip the offer in our app for automatic event long savings. Stack up those rewards to save even more restrictions apply. Visit Albertsons or Safeway.com for more details.
- [20:49]
Maria Konnikova
Don't miss your window of opportunity. Upgrade your space now during Blinds.com's anniversary sale and save up to 50% sitewide.
- [20:56]
Matt
Happy anniversary.
- [20:58]
Maria Konnikova
Blinds.com elevate your windows with the number one online retailer of custom window treatment. Blinds.com offers hundreds of premium window treatment options. Choose from woven wood and Roman shades to blinds, motorized shades and more, all designed to fit your budget without sacrificing quality. Blinds.com brings the showroom to you with free virtual consultations and samples delivered directly to your door. Fast and free. Our design experts can help schedule a professional measure and installation, plus guidance for DIYers too. Blinds.com has been trusted for for 29 years, earning thousands of five star reviews. Shop with confidence, knowing you'll get upfront pricing, no hidden fees and Blinds.com's 100% satisfaction guarantee. But hurry, these savings won't last. ShopBlinds.com's anniversary sale happening right now for up to 50% off site wide. Save up to 50% site wide at Blinds.com, rules and restrictions may apply.
- [21:49]
Nate Silver
Let's be honest, most of us have a love hate relationship with wired bras. We love the lift, but hate the digging. We love the support, but hate feeling trapped. Well, Nyx just changed everything with Free Flex, a wired bra actually designed to work with your body, not against it. Free Flex features a revolutionary flexible wire that moves when you move, bends when you bend, and keeps everything exactly where you want it. No poking, no stabbing, no constant readjusting, just freedom to move. It also has a demi cup shape for a natural lift with a lower neckline that flatters in everything from V necks to dresses. And because it's from Nyx, it's available in sizes for every body. Experience the first wired bra you'll actually want to wear all day. Visit nyx.com for 15% off your order with Free Flex 15. That's kn ix.com code Free Flex 15 for 15% off nyx.com when you're talking.
- [22:51]
Leah
About human nature, the other games that we should just talk about a little bit, there's a lot of work that's been done on things like the dictator game. The dictator games say I have 10 points, Nate, and I get to award them between you and me. And I can take all ten for myself, right? And people don't do that. People are actually. And I can take eight for myself and give you two, or I can be like, oh right, I'll take seven for myself. Fine, I'll give you three. But people end up being much more fair than, you know, game theory would predict. Just in a pure self interested way. People end up giving pretty equitable divisions. Right. It's actually very close to like, okay, I'll give you half and I'll keep half. Because we're not monsters and people are actually pretty generous in those types of situations. And especially if this is a repeat game, reputation, repeat interactions, our first impulse isn't to be like, I'm going to take it all for myself, even if I don't know that I'm going to be playing with you. Because I also think that it's a reputation in your own head. Right. You don't want to think of yourself as the type of person who's going to take all 10 points for themselves and just screw the other person in this interaction. So I think there are some really interesting findings from those kinds of games where you see that people's tendencies tend to be much nicer. But I think Trump would take 10 and give you zero and say that that serves his long term interest. Not realizing that that's going to piss you off. Right. You're not going to be happy when you get zero. You're not going to be happy when you get one. He's like, okay, fine, you can have one. Right? Like you are also not going to be happy in that scenario. And that's going to have very real long term consequences.
- [24:38]
Matt
Yeah. And the line between altruism and revenge, I think is actually often kind of thin. Right? Yeah. You know, you say I am going to seek revenge to defend my people and my way of life. Right. Sacrificing yourself and maybe dying a hero or whatever. Right. Like that's, I think actually kind of Part of the same instinct. And people don't like to be put in a place where they have fewer options. And this shit builds up over time too, you know, Maybe one reason why two tits for a tat. This sounds like X rated Mariah.
- [25:14]
Leah
I know. Two tits for tips. I'm not the one who named it. I'm not the one who named these strategies.
- [25:22]
Matt
You don't want triple tits. I don't know what's going on there. But like, but like, it's much harder to rebuild trust than to undo trust.
- [25:33]
Leah
Absolutely right, yes. That's a fundamental point.
- [25:36]
Matt
You know, if you're in a closed relationship and you catch a partner cheating on you, then takes a lot of convincing that that won't happen again. Right? And you might overlook the first one for whatever reasons, but like, the second time there's no fucking hope to like rebuild trust unless there's many years of, you know, cooperative behavior potentially. So, like, I think Canada and Mexico have not been a rational, say, and Trump is like, erratic. Some might say he's a madman. Right. That has a slightly different connotation in game theory. It can mean that, like, because you're unpredictable, that can serv as an effective deterrent sometimes. Right. But I think not in like, this more kind of pedestrian territory of like, because Trump is not threatening mutually assured destruction, right. If we completely cut off permanently imports of Canada and Mexico, that would hurt the economy a lot in the short run, but like, America could survive like that and eventually replace the production, et cetera. So it's not like mutually assured destruction, but like, like, but he is erratic. Maybe in the stupid analogy I used before, like the, the boss was having a bad day or was ambiguous. Right. I mean, Trump and J.D. vance, etc, sometimes try to maintain some degree of ambiguity. That's I, I think one of the things they're better about. They'll like, say something outrageous, but like not quite, you know, but it said jokingly. Right. And, and the libs always take it super literally when maybe they shouldn't. And so like, they play with the ambiguity in a way. It's like, I think a bit effective sometimes. But now, you know, can of Mexico, like, I mean, what are they supposed to do, right? Like you can't, like, I just thought this was like, there wasn't really even like a pretext for why we're reestablishing the terrorists. I think the market, and I wrote this at the time, so this does not mean in hindsight bias, Right. I think the market at the time was naive to assume that, like, postponing these things for a month. Month was a good sign. Right. And that, you know, the Trump of like, the second term seems much more determined to blow the world order up. Right? Yep. He's not bluffing as much. He's being advised by people who are maybe more deranged in some ways, I think. Right.
- [28:01]
Leah
No, I mean, I think it is kind of exactly what you're saying, blowing up the world order from the inside and, you know, from the outside. Because he's doing it both within the country and outside of its borders. Canada, Mexico, not being irrational. China, not being irrational at all. Ukraine, not being irrational. Because, you know, the only way to kind of stop bullies is to grow a spine and to actually try to stand up and try to get them to honor their guarantees and to be.
- [28:31]
Matt
Like, hey, the Zelensky meeting was interesting.
- [28:39]
Leah
I think it was probably one of the lowest points in American foreign policy in history. And it was televised.
- [28:45]
Matt
It was. I mean, Zelensky did have this. You know, I put it like this, right? There was some element of pride. I'm not sure I'd say it's revenge, but he thinks that, like, so first of all, he thinks that, like, deals involving Russia without security guarantees are. And he was saying, like, look, Russia has violated these agreements so many times, they're not trustworthy at all. And I'm kind of like sitting here smiling and nodding to sign this agreement that I want. Right. But I'm listening to all this naive bullshit about Russia and Trump and J.D. vance don't seem to. Don't seem to understand it, or if they do understand it. I mean, J.D. vance is a. They're all different. The triad of like.
- [29:24]
Leah
Can I interrupt you for a second? Like, Trump, I get, okay, like, he's just being an idiot. But like, J.D. vance went to Yale Law. Like, doesn't he know history? Like, I thought that he would be a little bit smarter in terms of understanding that sucking up to Putin ain't it. Right. I thought that naively, perhaps, that J.D. vance would have a better grasp of the history and the game theoretical dynamics here and realize that to get where he wants to go, appeasing Putin is not maybe in the immediate, immediate term, so that he stays as vp, But I just like, like, you know, seeing this makes him seem a lot dumber than I thought he was.
- [30:05]
Matt
One thing Trump is very consistent about is that if you get on his bad side, unless there's some very naked strategic incentive to re. Cooperate. Right? Like, you know, he doesn't give people A lot of room for discrimination. It was fascinating, by the way, I would recommend watching the whole Trump Zelensky meeting, in part because of, like, the body language. And you see kind of like Zelensky is increasingly gently, but less and less gently, trying to suggest that, like, Russia is not a reliable partner. And then you see Trump kind of who starts out, like, patting him on the back, literally, right? You see Trump's body language kind of change, and he's like, I'm going to give you your one time, right? Your tit. But if it's a double A tit, right? But it's an example of how, like, I'm not sure if he was acting narrowly rationally, right? You probably just have to suck it up if you're being narrowly rational and suck it up. And then later on, you can yell at Trump on the phone or probably go through an intermediary or have Marco Rubio and the Ukrainian counterpart duke it out or whatever else, right? But I think he had some trouble sucking up his pride and kowtowing to this bully who was. Who is, you know, naive about, like, Russia's willingness to go along with these. With these guarantees, right? And, like, I'd be like, that, man, this is why, like, this is why I'd be a fair couple fucking. I'd be like, fuck, you know what? I listen to this bullshit, Donald, for half an hour now, and, like, give me a fucking break, right? I'll do it in front of all the cameras. And, like, I would, you know, my country would probably get, like, nuked as a result. But, like. But you can. You can respect Zelensky as a human being and also understands. In a terrible position. And he's probably right on the merits, right? But like. But, like, at the same time, like.
- [31:58]
Leah
No, I disagree that he should have just sucked it up, because that's also. He's between a rock and a hard place, right? He needs help, right? But sucking it up with no security guarantees from the United States would have been, I think, also an absolute disaster and a disaster for kind of the world order. So I think, in a way, what he did was more altruistic because he's still trying to kind of stand up, like, put himself. Because Ukraine has been kind of the one thing that has been stopping World War III and Putin's takeover of Europe.
- [32:39]
Matt
It's hard for people when they experience a worsening of their situation, their expected value preferred, right? It's hard for people to distinguish between relatively more bad and relatively less bad options, right? You'll sometimes see A poker player kind of put money in at the end where they don't think their opponent is bluffing. They're really disappointed by how the hands played out, and they kind of can't quite admit that their situation worsened. And they almost punish themselves of saying, okay, I'll call against someone that if they kind of of detach themselves from their situation, would say, yeah, that guy's never bluffing or bluffing half as often as he would need to be to make that call. Correct. Right. Like, that situation is tough. Right? I mean, you're experiencing a loss of esteem. People are yelling at you in your country for things going badly. The reverse, too. I mean, I think people sometimes underestimate when you have an increase in your welfare, your ev, and you have multiple good options. People, I think, are also sometimes not opportunistic enough about saying, okay, really good option A is actually a lot better than merely pretty good option B. And you don't have a situation happen all that often. So take time and think about that and maximize when you can. But apart from people are good at comparing good versus bad, degrees of goodness versus degrees of badness are harder for people to deal with.
- [34:01]
Leah
Yeah, for sure, for sure. But I think that we're in a. I think we can both agree that we're in a very bad situation right now and the game theory is not looking good and we're not in a very good cooperative spiral when it comes to anything, you know, economy, foreign policy. So let's, let's see what happens. And yeah, let's. Let's see where we are next week. On that note, Nate, do you want to take a little break and talk about the Fire Festival rebirth?
- [34:32]
Matt
Let's do it.
- [34:32]
Leah
Maria.
- [34:40]
Matt
Foreign.
- [34:43]
Ryan Seacrest
Hey, it's Ryan Seacrest for Albertsons and Safeway. It's stock up savings time now through March 25th. Spring in for storewide deals and earn four times a point. Look for in store tags to earn on eligible beverage items like Red Bull and sparkling ice, or breakfast favorites like Kellogg's Pop Tarts, Kellogg's Frosted Flakes, and Kellogg's Eggo Waffles, plus many more. Then clip the offer in our app for automatic event long savings. Stack up those rewards to save even more restrictions apply. Visit Albertsons or Safeway.com for more details.
- [35:11]
Nate Silver
Let's be honest. Most of us have a love hate relationship with wired bras. We love the lift, but hate the digging. We love the support but hate feeling trapped. Well, Nyx just changed everything with Free Flex, a wired bra actually designed to work with your body, not against it. Free Flex features a revolutionary flexible wire that moves when you move, bends when you bend, and keeps everything exactly where you want it. No poking, no stabbing, no constant readjusting, just freedom to move. It also has a demi cup shape for a natural lift with a lower neckline that flatters in everything from V necks to dresses. And because it's from Knicks, it's available in sizes for every body. Experience the first wired bra you'll actually want to wear all day. Visit nyx.com for 15% off your order or with Free Flex 15. That's K-N-I x.com code Free Flex 15 for 15% off nix.com hi, I'm Matt.
- [36:12]
Leah
And I'm Leah and we're from the Grown Up Stuff podcast.
- [36:15]
Matt
And just in time for tax season. On this week's episode, we're chatting with CPA Lisa Green Lewis about how small businesses can tackle their taxes using TurboTax business.
- [36:23]
Leah
A Forbes study mentioned that a whopping 93% of small businesses overpay their tax and 17% of Gen Zers believed that you could write off any expense as a business expense. So can't blame them. It's really important to do your taxes right.
- [36:43]
Matt
Listen to Grown up stuff on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your favorite podcasts.
- [36:50]
Leah
Grown Up Stuff so Nate, I should not be shocked. I wrote a book about con artists and about how they operate and about how the whole world works. But I was actually a little bit shocked to find out last week that Billy McFarland, who went to prison after he had tried to organize this music festival, the Fyre Festival. It sparked not one but two documentaries about it where he promised this luxurious getaway, luxurious island, all this amazing stuff. And it was a complete fraud and fiasco. No music, no food, no transportation, no housing, no nothing. Anyway, dude went to jail partly for wire fraud. While he was in jail, by the way, he ended up starting a ticket selling business, which ended up getting him an even longer sentence because that was also fraudulent. So he just doesn't give up. He's now out. I think he served a little bit less than four years and he has announced Fyre Festival 2.
- [38:02]
Matt
Are you going this time? There's gonna be a risky biz pop up there.
- [38:08]
Leah
Exactly. It's going to be at Playa Fire on a Mexican island called Isla Mujeres, the Island of women.
- [38:19]
Matt
I mean, it's not surprising, Maria, I think you'd say that. Like Billy, friend of the podcast, I'M just kidding. It's not surprising that like a con artist would want to like, try desperately to like run back the con. Right? I mean, that seems like typical.
- [38:32]
Leah
Absolutely, absolutely. And so he owes a lot of money, right? He owes millions of dollars for. In restitution for kind of the money lost in the Fyre Festival. And he is now. So, Nate, do you want to guess what the ticket price is? So there are 2,000 tickets available to Fyre Festival 2 and there's a range of ticket prices. We're. We're at a floor of $1,400 and a ceiling of $1.1 million. And he is promising the exact same shit that he promised last time, that you're going to have an, you know, artist's palace. All this, like amazing stuff, VIP experiences. None of this has been built. And by the way, Mexican officials have said, hey, no one has applied for any permits. Like, we don't know about this. We have zero applications for permits to do this on Islam. And apparently even if you go to the GPS little pin that he put on the website, it drops you into the ocean, which probably is much more par for the course than being dropped on the island itself. So that's actually probably the most truth telling part of all of this. It tells you exactly where you're going to go and I will not be surprised. So normally I'm firmly, firmly on the side of victims. I was firmly on the side of the victims of the fire fraud because they didn't know it was going to be a fraud. At that point, it seemed there was Ja Rule, all of these people endorsing it. Who the hell Knew who Billy McFarland was? If they want to spend money to go to this amazing experience in the Bahamas. Amazing, right? Like that's good for them. Like, these are not. Don't judge people because they want to go to a fancy music concert. Like, that's their prerogative. And some of these people had no money, right? Like they saved up for a year to be able to go, to be able to go there. So I was firmly on their side. However, if you buy tickets to Fyre Festival 2, I'm sorry, this is, I'm going to go from. I'm no longer going to be a victim advocate here. This is one of those, you know, fool me once situations and fool me twice. Like, are you fucking kidding me? Like, what are you thinking? Like con artists. I think I've told you this before, they have suckers lists, so. And you sell these for a lot of money. Which is people who've fallen for phone scams, email scams, et cetera, in the past. And these, this, this is a very, very valuable list because they're much more likely to fall for it again if they've already fallen for it once. So the Fyre Festival should have a suckers list if anyone actually ends up doing this again. Because if someone believes that, oh, well, the first time, you know, he messed up, but this time it's really going to be great. Man, I've got so many bridges to sell you, it's not even funny.
- [41:22]
Matt
Wouldn't it be, like, all, like, New York magazine writers writing ironically detached profile pieces of this? Right. There's an audience for it. Like, if I got a ticket for free, I would go.
- [41:32]
Leah
I would. Absolutely.
- [41:34]
Matt
Because there's a performance art element to this.
- [41:37]
Leah
Oh, absolutely. I would. If someone wants to sponsor me to go to the Fyre Festival and write.
- [41:42]
Matt
About it, maybe I'm not valuing my time enough.
- [41:44]
Leah
I'll do it. I'll do it. As you know, it's part of my background. You know, I wrote a book on con artists. My next book is about cheating. I will happily go and cover the Fyre Festival. So if anyone wants to sponsor me, please, I will not think you're a sucker for buying that ticket. But something tells me that I might not even get to go. Right? Like, is this even going to happen? Right. Like, there have been zero permits. He clearly wants to raise money so that he can have money, and he just can't help himself. What I know about con artists is that they do not go straight. They do not magically reform, especially the ones on the level of Billy McFarland who have been doing this. There are people who talked about his childhood. I was one of the talking heads on the documentaries, so I kind of went in deep with that. This is a guy who's been doing this his whole life and has been misrepresenting himself his whole life. He's not looking to become a successful entrepreneur, businessman, event planner. Like, he's going to keep taking his money, and I just want to know, like, who is willing to back him. Right.
- [42:56]
Matt
Okay, let me play Gamble's advocate. Sometimes people, like, psych themselves out that, like, they do. It would be such an obvious con that, like, that, like, could run it again.
- [43:04]
Leah
Yeah.
- [43:04]
Matt
Which, by the way, in poker is sometimes true. And sometimes, like, sometimes being caught bluffing in poker can deter people from bluffing again. Right. I can't think of most other real.
- [43:13]
Leah
World scenarios, but that's very different. Because in poker, like, bluffing is part of the game, right? And some people. So it's like you're still playing by the rules, and when you con someone, you're not. So it's a little bit different. So I think that. Think about it, actually, I think this is more like angle shooting in poker instead of bluffing, right? Which if you're not a poker player, angle shooting is basically going right up until the edge, bending the rules, doing things that are like, frankly, kind of sleazy and scummy, but you're not technically cheating. And you're doing it to try to get information, to try to get a reaction out of your opponent, to try to gain an edge in a. In a scummy way. You're going right up until that point where you can actually be disqualified for it. People who are known angle shooters, they are known angle shooters. If you call them out on it, that is not going to make them less likely to angle shoot next time. They are going to try it again and see, like, okay, well, nothing really happened. Let me see if I can do this again. Let me see if I can angle shoot again. And they keep doing it, even if they have known reputations for doing it. I think that that's the better analogy here, that we're dealing with someone who just doesn't give a fuck and gets off on it and wants to be able to have this sort of image reputation because he's not doing this for the money, right? He owes a lot of money. He was already in J. And I think the motivations here are quite different, and he will keep trying it again. But as you say, people do have this mentality of, oh, well, it can't happen again, so this time I'm definitely okay. And you fall for it again. And, yeah, our minds and our powers of rationalization are truly epic. I want to revisit this night in a few months to see if Fyre Festival 2 is moving forward. I will be very, very curious to know if we're going to have a second documentary made about Fire 2 and the great fraud. And how in the world did someone pay 1.1 million for the VIP experience? On that note, dear listeners, Nate and I are going to go and try to find sponsorships to go and fly out to Fyre Festival 2 so that we can tape a Risky Business. This podcast from the island of Las Mujeres. Let us know what you think of the show. Reach out to us at risky business@pushushushkin.com and by the way, if you're a Pushkin plus subscriber, we have some bonus content for you. We'll be answering a listener question each week that's coming up right after the credits.
- [46:15]
Matt
And if you're not subscribing yet, consider signing up for just $6.99 a month. What a nice price you get access to all that premium content and ad free listening across Pushkin's entire network of shows.
- [46:27]
Leah
Risky Business is hosted by me Maria.
- [46:29]
Matt
Konnikova and by me Nate Silver. The show is a co production of Pushkin Industries and iHeartMedia. This episode was produced by Isabel Carter. Our Associate Producer is Gabriel Hunter Chang. Sally Helm is our editor and our Executive Producer is Jacob Goldstein. Mixing by Sarah Bruger if you like.
- [46:47]
Leah
This show, please rate and review us so other people can find us too. Thanks so much for tuning Foreign.
- [47:02]
Matt
Hey.
- [47:02]
Ryan Seacrest
It'S Ryan Seacrest for Albertsons and Safeway. It's stock up savings time now through March 25th. Spring in for storewide deals and earn four times the points. Look for in store tags to earn on eligible snacks like Lays Chips, Garden Veggie straws and Planters Nuts or Sweet treats from M M's and Oreo plus many more. Then clip the offer in our app for automatic event long savings. Stack up those rewards to save even more. More restrictions apply. Visit Albertsons or Safeway.com for more details. The Unshakables podcast is kicking off Season two with an episode you won't want to miss. Join host Ben Walter, CEO of Chase for Business as he welcomes a very special guest, Chairman and CEO of JP Morgan Chase, Jamie Dimon. Hear about the challenges facing small businesses and some of the oh moments Jamie has overcome. Listen wherever you get your podcasts. Chase Mobile app is available for select mobile devices. Message and data rates may apply. JP Morgan Chase Bank N A Member FDIC Copyright 2025 JP Morgan Chase &.
- [48:05]
Maria Konnikova
Co. Creativity doesn't wait. It moves, shifts, evolves. Just like you. And with the Yoga PC from Lenovo, your tools finally keep up. Stunning, smart and sustainably sourced yoga PCs from Lenovo are designed to amplify your creativity with AI powered performance. Whether you're sketching, editing, animating or composing, yoga moves with you adapting to your creativity, to your rhythm. With beautiful displays and the flexibility to shift from laptop to tablet, yoga unlocks new ways to inspire and create. Because at Lenovo we believe your tools should fuel your flow, not hold you back. Yoga PCs from Lenovo support you at every step of your creative journey. So check out lenovo.com yoga and supercharge your creativity with yoga, empowering creators everywhere.