The Lovestruck Explorer's Deadly Guessing Game

Summary

Cautionary Tales with Tim Harford

Episode: The Lovestruck Explorer's Deadly Guessing Game

Release Date: April 10, 2026
Host: Tim Harford (Pushkin Industries)

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Episode Overview

In this captivating episode, Tim Harford unpacks a tragic and cautionary tale from Australian exploration: the doomed Burke and Wills expedition. Harford explores not only the historical events—fueled by personal ambition, colonial rivalry, and romantic longing—but also the crucial errors in communication and decision-making that sealed the fate of many. Framed through the lens of game theory and human error, this story both fascinates and warns, illustrating how overconfidence, unclear plans, and failure to imagine another’s perspective can prove fatal.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Setting the Stage: Burke, Ambition, and Romance

• Robert O'Hara Burke is introduced as an eccentric, ambitious Irishman—more enamored with Julia Matthews, a teenage actress, than with exploration itself.
  • Burke, an untidy, sometimes unlikable police superintendent, is described as galloping through swamps, bearing grudges, and awkwardly pursuing Julia:
    • “He’d ride 30 miles just to swing on that gate.” (Burke’s petty feud, 08:10)
    • “Hour after hour, he practiced with blankets draped round the piano so he didn’t wake the neighbour’s baby.” (10:03)
• Main motivation: Burke’s desire to win Julia's affection and public renown by becoming the first to cross Australia.

2. Disastrous Beginnings and Catastrophic Choices

• Ill-prepared and overpacked: The expedition assembles with 21 tons of unnecessary baggage (oak dining table, dandruff brushes, even a boat), indicating a lack of focus.
  • “Who, for instance, decided they’d need 12 sets of dandruff brushes?” (14:10)
• Critical strategic error: Instead of using the paddle steamer to ship supplies to the first outpost (Darling River), Burke hauls all equipment overland, delaying the group by weeks and exhausting resources.
  • This decision, rooted in a personal feud, is framed as his “first catastrophic error…if you don’t count taking the job in the first place.” (19:06)
• Leadership lapses: Burke fires or alienates most of his initial team; lack of bushcraft and unclear delegation of roles (Wright’s ambiguous instructions) create confusion down the line.

3. The Race, the Rations, and Splitting the Party

• Race for glory: As news arrives that a rival expedition is underway, Burke doubles down, racing into the outback and splitting his group multiple times—despite dangerously limited supplies.
• Critical error: Burke’s instructions to his deputies (notably William Wright, “the man from the pub”) are so unclear that vital support never arrives on time.
• Neglect of local knowledge: The explorers spurn offers of food and help from Aboriginal tribes, viewing them with suspicion or hostility.
  • “Wills was having none of it. ‘A large tribe of blacks came pestering us...they were very troublesome and nothing but the threat to shoot will keep them away.’” (26:02)

4. The “Deadly Guessing Game”: Game Theory in the Outback

• Thomas Schelling’s coordination game: Harford unpacks the concept of “focal points” (Schelling points)—the intuitive solutions people use when they can’t communicate.
  • “Can you coordinate if you can’t communicate?...The trick is to look for what Schelling calls a focal point in the situation.” (31:32)
• At Cooper’s Creek: Both Brahe (depot leader) and the returning Burke believe their actions are so obvious the other will infer them:
  • Brahe buries a chest with supplies and instructions at the camp, marks a tree “Dig 3ft NW,” and departs. Hours later, Burke’s party arrives, finds the note and meager food—but soon leaves, planning to head south.
  • Burke’s critical error: buries his own note, but doesn’t update the tree or mark anything new—believing the “Dig” sign is self-explanatory.

5. The Missed Connection and Final Tragedy

• Brahe and Wright return briefly, see no new sign at the tree, and depart—just missing Burke’s weakened party by a single day.
  • “They don’t bother to dig up the chest. Obviously, if Burke had put a Message there, he would have marked the tree.” (37:25)
• Desperate and starving: Burke, Wills, and King lack survival skills for the land and further alienate Aboriginal people. Only King ultimately survives, rescued after living with the Yandrawanda tribe.
  • “They couldn’t live like the aboriginal people. They didn’t have the skills to catch fish, or 60,000 years worth of accumulated know-how…” (39:01)
• The final bitter irony: If either party had used a little more imagination and caution—double-checking the chest, or marking the tree more clearly—Burke and Wills might have survived.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Love and Ambition:
  Burke: “If I come out successful, I have no doubt but that Julia will accept my offer of marriage.” (13:28)
• On overconfidence and coordination:
  Tim Harford: “To Brahe and Wright, marking the tree was so obvious that they didn’t bother to check the chest. To Burke and Wills, checking the chest was so obvious that they didn’t bother to mark the tree.” (42:56)
• Game-theory lens:
  “Playing the coordination game, says Thomas Schelling, takes both logic and imagination. Burke and Wills were undone by a failure of both.” (45:00)
• Ultimate tragedy:
  John King: “I am King, sir, of Burke’s exploring expedition.”
  Brahe: “Where is he? And Wills?”
  Gladwell (as character): “Dead.”
  King: “Both dead. Long ago.” (41:04)
• Cynical coda:
  Julia Matthews (Lost and Found ad): “Lost in the Botanical Gardens yesterday afternoon a gold bracelet with carbuncle in center and miniature. The finder will be handsomely rewarded.” (42:14)
  Tim Harford: “Had Julia really lost Burke’s gift, or had she spied an opportunity for publicity? If it was a stunt, it was cynically brilliant.” (42:28)

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Timeline of Important Segments

• [02:23] – Burke’s return to the abandoned camp and discovery of the fateful note
• [07:24] – Introduction to Burke’s personality and obsession with Julia Matthews
• [13:28] – Burke reveals his romantic motivation for the expedition
• [19:06] – First catastrophic strategic error: refusal to use steamboats
• [26:02] – Dismissal and mistrust of Aboriginal peoples
• [30:53] – Introduction of Schelling’s game theory and coordination games
• [35:23] – Burke’s party leaves a letter and buries it, but communicates nothing new on the tree
• [37:25] – Brahe and Wright’s missed opportunity; fatal outcomes
• [39:01] – Lack of survival skills becomes critical
• [41:01] – Search party discovers King, learns of Burke and Wills’ deaths
• [42:14] – Julia’s possible publicity stunt and the close of the tragedy
• [42:56] – Harford’s summing up of the coordination game failure

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Themes & Takeaways

• Human Blind Spots: Pride, overconfidence, and insular thinking can turn even well-resourced expeditions into disasters.
• Failures of Communication: Sometimes, tragedy results not from a lack of information, but from an inability to see the situation through another’s eyes.
• Coordination Games in Life: The simplest “obvious” solution isn’t always as obvious to others as we assume.
• Respect for Local Knowledge: The explorers’ disregard for Indigenous know-how is portrayed as not just ignorant, but deadly.
• Romantic and Societal Pressures: Burke’s personal and societal motivations muddle clear thinking—making the tragedy not just personal, but emblematic of colonial hubris.

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For Further Reading

Tim Harford promises a list of sources in the show notes at timharford.com.

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Tone Note:
The episode is brisk, wry, and insightful, blending irony with pathos and sharp historical analysis. Harford’s storytelling is peppered with deadpan humor and empathy for flawed characters caught in a tragic web of their own making.

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Recommended for:
Anyone interested in history, psychology, decision-making, or the subtle ways in which human error can compound into catastrophe. This episode is especially illuminating for fans of game theory, leadership studies, and true tales of adventure gone tragically awry.

Transcript

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[Tim Harford (Narrator)]

Pushkin. This cautionary tale was inspired by a suggestion from a loyal listener. Thank you, jp. I hope you enjoy the episode. Braha Robert o' Hara Burke calls out the name of the man he'd left in charge of the camp at Cooper's Creek.

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Cooee.

[Tim Harford (Narrator)]

Brahe. Dusk is falling. Burke and his two surviving colleagues recognize their surroundings. The camp is close. They've traveled 30 miles that day, clinging wearily to the backs of their two surviving camels, who are just as exhausted as they are. Braha it's been over four months since they saw Brahe and the other men. They left at Cooper's Creek. In that time they've trekked 2,000 miles to the northern coast of Australia and back again. They're the first white men ever to cross the country. Glory and fame await when they get back to Melbourne, still nearly another thousand miles away. But now they'll have support. More men, fresh camels and horses. And food. Thank goodness we've been on half rations for weeks.

[William Brahe (Character)]

But Where's Brahe Patton McDonagh?

[Tim Harford (Narrator)]

No response from anyone. Admittedly, Burke had assured them he'd be back at the camp in three months, not four. They might by now have assumed he was lost or had taken a different route back to Melbourne. But he'd asked them to stay at Cooper's Creek for as long as their supplies lasted. And their supplies should have been replenished long ago.

[William Brahe (Character)]

Brahe Patton McDonough.

[Tim Harford (Narrator)]

They can't be far away. They've probably just gone to water the camels and the horses. They'll be back any moment. Then Burke's second in command sees the dates carved into The Coolibah tree. 12-6604-216161-21860. 1860. That was when they established this camp four and a half months ago. So the other date must be when Brahe abandoned the camp. 21-4-1861. That's today. They abandoned the camp today. The ashes in the campfire are still warm. Other letters carved into the the tree. Dig 3ft NW. Dig 3ft to the northwest. They dig. Loosely buried under camel dung and dirt is a trunk. In the trunk is a bottle. And in the bottle a note. It's signed by William brahe.

[William Brahe (Character)]

Depot, Cooper's Creek, 21st of April 1861. The depot party leaves this camp today.

[Tim Harford (Narrator)]

But why? For medical attention.

[William Brahe (Character)]

It seems Patton is unable to walk. His leg has been severely hurt.

[Tim Harford (Narrator)]

But where are the others? Where's the third group of Burke's expedition? The ones he left at the last outpost of civilization on the Darling river. Who were going to follow up to Cooper's Creek with all the other supplies. Where are they?

[William Brahe (Character)]

No person has been up here from the Darling.

[Tim Harford (Narrator)]

So the depot parties supplies haven't been replenished. And Braha will have had to take much of what remained for his journey back. Burke and his his two companions look again. In the buried chest they've been left some flour, sugar, tea and dried meat. Not much, not enough, but at least they can eat tonight. They eat, they rest, they discuss their predicament. And then they make a catastrophically bad decision. I'm Tim Harford and you're listening to cautionary tales.

[Julia Matthews (Character)]

For the calm still night and the moon's pale light Sh after hill and veil.

[Tim Harford (Narrator)]

Robert o' Hara Burke sits in the front row of the theatre. He was there last night. He'll be there tomorrow night too. Burke is Irish, a former soldier. Seven years ago he moved to the newly established British crown colony of Victoria. Australia wasn't yet a country with states. Burke became superintendent of police in a fast growing Gold Rush town 70 miles from Victoria's capital, Melbourne. He spends his time chasing horse thieves or quelling trouble from workers on the railway who are disgruntled with their boss. What sort of man was Robert o' Hara Burke? Apart from, as it seemed, a theatre lover? He was untidy, says one account. He dressed like a peasant and dribbled saliva down his bushy black beard. But he came from a well connected family, he spoke several languages and he was quite at ease in the poshest social circles the young colony had to offer. He was a daredevil eccentric. You might find him galloping his horse madly through swamps and forests or reading police reports in a bathtub in his yard wearing nothing but his helmet. He bore grudges. Burke fell out with a magistrate whose particular bugbear happened to be people swinging on his front gate. Burke would ride 30 miles just to swing on that gate. And a theatre lover? Not exactly. Burke had fallen head over heels for a young actress. She sang and starred in burlesques and pantomimes. Roles like Cupid, mischievous God of love. When she played in nearby towns, Burke always found an excuse to gallop over. He'd claimed there was a promising lead on a gang of horse thieves when he really just wanted an excuse to watch Julia Matthews.

[Julia Matthews (Character)]

I don't think I'm ugly I'm only just 20. I know I shouldn't make a most excellent wife. The girls all around me have lovers in plenty But I, not a sweetheart can get for my life.

[Tim Harford (Narrator)]

Julia was not, in fact, only just 20. She was still a teenager. Burke was pushing 40. Julia must have been disconcerted that a man twice her age was stalking her from town to town, gazing adoringly up from a front row seat, dribbling saliva. Burke proposed marriage. Julia said no. But Burke wasn't discouraged. He bought a piano and hired a teacher to teach him the songs Julia sang. Hour after hour, he practiced with blankets draped round the piano so he didn't wake the neighbour's baby. In Melbourne, meanwhile, the freshly minted Royal Society of Victoria was planning an expedition from their City in the south to the northern coast. It had never been done before. Ships had sailed round Australia and explorers from various coastal cities were venturing further inland. But the centre on a map remained a ghastly blank. What was there? Just desert? Or was there, as some thought, an inland sea? Could they map a route for a telegraph wire to speed up communication with Europe? Might they find land that was good for pasture? Or more gold? The Society had raised the money for the expedition, but couldn't agree on who should lead it. Ideally, they'd hire an experienced explorer, but no one was available, or no one from Victoria. The experienced explorers were all from other British colonies. Elsewhere in Australia, rivalry was strong. It was a matter of pride to the Royal Society of Victoria that someone from Victoria should cross the country first. They advertised the post and got some unconvincing applicants. One proposed to solve the problem of crossing the desert by stretching out a very long hose pipe from the last known river. Then a major funder of the project, a railway magnate, suggested someone he'd got to know. Irish former officer, now a police chief, very effective at quelling trouble from disgruntled workers. A manly character with determined energy. Eccentric, yes, but from a very good family. Robert o' Hara Burke. Some who knew Burke were astonished at the idea of him crossing Australia. He was the worst bushman I ever met, said one. Another added he could not tell the north from the south in broad daylight. Burke himself needed no persuading.

[William Brahe (Character)]

If I come out successful, I have no doubt but that Julia will accept my offer of marriage.

[Tim Harford (Narrator)]

In August 1860, the expedition prepared for departure in a park in Melbourne. It consisted of 19 men, 23 horses, 27 camels and 21 tons of baggage. Burke watched it all being piled on wagons and animals backs. With mounting alarm, he'd somehow lost control of what was being packed.

[William Brahe (Character)]

What are we going to do with all this?

[Tim Harford (Narrator)]

Who, for instance, decided they'd need 12 sets of dandruff brushes? In the outback, they were taking an oak dining table and a gong from China. And a boat. A boat on wheels. So it was also a wagon, but a boat nonetheless. They might need one if they encountered an inland sea. Before they set off, Burke had one thing he needed to do. It had a photograph taken and made into a miniature portrait, which he now placed in a locket. He went to see Julia Matthews and again asked her to marry him. This time the teenage actress didn't reject the proposal out of hand. Burke might be 21 years her senior, but if he succeeded, he'd be the most famous man in the land. Wise perhaps to keep her options open, Julia said she'd consider his proposal on his return. For now, she accepted the locket. Cautionary Tales will be back after the break.

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[Tim Harford (Narrator)]

Robert o' Hara Burke was trying to cross Australia from Melbourne Victoria in the south, to the unmapped north. The journey he'd planned had two stopping off points about a quarter way up. A few hundred miles north of Melbourne was the last outpost of civilization, a tiny settlement on the Darling River, A few houses, a pub and General Storr. From there, Burke would press on a few hundred miles more to Cooper's Creek, almost halfway up the country, the furthest point mapped by any explorer. At Cooper's Creek, he'd establish a camp and a depot. He'd secure his lines of communication back to the outpost on the Darling, and then he'd set forth into uncharted terror territory the thousand or so miles remaining to a gulf in the north. That was the plan, anyway. But then they'd accumulated 21 tons of baggage.

[William Brahe (Character)]

What are we going to do with all this?

[Tim Harford (Narrator)]

As it happened, Burke's despairing question had a sensible answer. For the first leg of the journey, at least, that output post on the Darling river was served by a paddle steamer. Burke could have shipped most of his supplies up the river and traveled light with the horses and camels that arrived fresh and ready for the push to Cooper's Creek. That would be sensible. Why not do that? Alas, Burke had fallen out with the owner of the steamboat company. He insisted on hauling everything overland instead. That was his first catastrophic decision, if you don't count taking the job in the first place. The journey from Melbourne to the Darling could be done in 10 days by a messenger on horseback. It took Burke's expedition 56 days. In that time, of the 19 men who had set out, Burke had lost 11. Either he fired them or argued with them till they quit. He hired five more along the way and lost three of them, too. He hired more wagons to help with the baggage at ruinous expense. It kept breaking down as Burke complained in messages to Melbourne, the roads are very bad. He wrote so many checks for wagon repairs that the Royal Society of Victoria's bank account ran dry and the cheques began to bounce. Burke finally decided he'd have to dump some supplies in a small town. He held a public auction. Among the stuff he got rid of was their lime juice, which helps prevent scurvy. As we heard about in another cautionary tale, when limeys get scurvy, scurvy creeps up on you with lack of vitamin C. It starts with aching gums, then slowly rots your body. Burke really shouldn't have ditched the lime juice. As the expedition stuttered on, news reached Melbourne that another explorer from another Crown colony was also setting off with the aim of crossing the country first. Members of the Royal Society of Victoria's Exploration Committee penned anxious letters.

[William Brahe (Character)]

My dearest Burke, it will now, to a certain extent, be a race. I know how exciting this must be to you. The honor of Victoria is in your hands.

[Tim Harford (Narrator)]

Oh, and the commission.

[William Brahe (Character)]

The city were rather alarmed at finding the expense greater than they anticipated.

[Tim Harford (Narrator)]

Burke tried a shortcut to make up time. The wagons sank so deep in sand they had to be dug out with shovels. The horses got so exhausted, they simply stopped. After 56 days, Burke and what remained of his expedition staggered towards the handful of houses on the Darling River. They'd completed barely a quarter of their outward journey, and it should have been the easiest part, through land that was already colonised. As they arrived, they watched the Parbon General Store unload a new shipment of stock from a paddle steamer. At the outpost on the Darling River, Burke assessed his options. He'd fired his second in command, so he needed to promote someone. He chose an earnest young Englishman called William Wills. Wills's mum hadn't wanted him to go on this expedition, but, as he wrote

[William Wills (Character)]

her, were we born to be locked up in comfortable rooms and never to incur the hazard of mishap?

[Tim Harford (Narrator)]

Unlike Burke, Wills was a scientist, a trained surveyor. It was his job to find their way with a compass and by observing the stars at night, and to keep meteorological observations. Wills had quite enjoyed the journey so far.

[William Wills (Character)]

Riding on the camels is much more pleasant than I anticipated. I sit on the back portion behind the hump, pack the instruments in front of the. I can thus ride on, keeping my journal and making calculations.

[Tim Harford (Narrator)]

By now, it was late in spring. The summer heat would soon make it dangerous to travel further north. It would be sensible to wait a few months and resume their travels in autumn. Sensible. But Burke was in a race. He decided to split the party up. He'd take the fittest men, horses and camels and a few months worth of food, and press on to Cooper's Creek. In charge of the others, he left a man he'd met in the pub who'd managed a local sheep station and seemed to know what he was doing. Burke sent a letter to Melbourne to explain.

[William Brahe (Character)]

I informed him that I should consider him third officer of the expedition, subject to the approval of the committee. In the meantime, I have instructed him to follow me up with the remainder of the camels to Cooper's Creek.

[Tim Harford (Narrator)]

But was the man from the pub expected to wait for the committee's approval before he followed up to Cooper's Creek? Burke's instructions, alas, were unclear. When I've talked about civilisation, I've been using quote marks on the colonial maps. The centre of Australia might have looked like a ghastly blank, but it was, of course, home to ancient civilisations of its own. Near Cooper's Creek lived four main groups of Aboriginal people. They moved around to find food and water, but they knew whose land was whose. And when you visited others land, there were conventions to follow. Much as I might knock on your door and wait to be invited in. Burke and Wills neither knew nor cared about these conventions. They simply marched straight up to the watering holes with their horses and camels. The Aboriginal people didn't know what to make of these white fellas. They tried to be friendly. Wills was having none of it.

[William Wills (Character)]

A large tribe of blacks came pestering us to go to their camp and have a dance, which we declined. They were very troublesome and nothing but the threat to shoot Will keep them away.

[Tim Harford (Narrator)]

The desert heat was stifling. Will's thermometer showed 109, but they found Cooper's Creek to be teeming with life. Fish and birds and trees, though also rats and flies and mosquitoes. On 6 December 1860, they set up their camp like the jolly swagman of song under the shade of a coolibah tree. Remember what Burke was supposed to do at Cooper's Creek? Establish a depot, secure his lines of communication back to that outpost on the Darling, and only then explore the uncharted territory to the north. It would have been sensible to wait for the man from the pub to arrive with the rest of the supplies, but Burke was sure he'd be along soon. And anyway, there was a race on. Burke split his party again. He'd push for the northern coast with Wills and two others in charge of the depot. He left a quiet but capable young German, William Brahe. Burke told Brahe they'd be back in three months. He was taking only three months worth of food after all. And if Burke wasn't back in three months, well, he might have found a route to another settlement in another colony. There'd also been vague talk of a ship being sent to meet him at the gulf in the north he hoped to reach. But the man from the pub would have come with more supplies by then, so Brahe could stay at Cooper's Creek. Anyway, whatever. It'd be fine.

[William Brahe (Character)]

You must not fret. I shall be back in a short time.

[Tim Harford (Narrator)]

Cautionary tales will also be back in a short time.

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[Tim Harford (Narrator)]

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[Tim Harford (Narrator)]

In his 1960 book the Strategy of Conflict, the game theorist Thomas Schelling asks us to imagine a couple who lose each other in a department store. It's 1960, so they can't just call. But the chances are good, says Schelling, that they'll find each other. They'll each think of some obvious place to meet that will obviously be obvious to the other. Schelling calls this a coordination game. Can you coordinate if you can't communicate? You win the game if you give the same answer as the other player. The question, he says, is not what would I do if I were she? But what would I do if I were she? Wondering what she would do if she were I? Wondering what I would do if I were she. The trick is to look for what Schelling calls a focal point in the situation. Different places in the department store will seem obvious to different couples,

[William Brahe (Character)]

but we

[Tim Harford (Narrator)]

can play coordination games with strangers, too. Schelling asked people to imagine they'd been told to meet someone in New York, but not a time or location. Where might they try? In an age when most people arrived by train, many gave Schelling the same answer by the famous clock at Grand Central Terminal at noon. How do you play the coordination game? Logic helps, says Schelling, but usually not until imagination has selected some clue to to work on from among the concrete details of the situation. The problem comes when you're so confident in your own answer, you don't bother to look for a backup plan. In Cooper's Creek in April 1861, William Braher wonders how long it's reasonable to keep waiting for Burke, Wills and their two companions. They've been gone for over four months. Maybe they're dead. Maybe they're on a ship back to Melbourne. He has no way to communicate with them. The man from the pub never arrived. Pattons hurt his leg and can't walk, but more worryingly, his gums are bleeding too. Wait much longer and they risk never making it back to civilization at all. They decide to leave on the morning of April 21. Brahe writes a letter just in case Burke eventually makes it back. He puts the letter in a bottle and the bottle in a chest. With as much food as he can spare. He buries the chest. How will Burke know it's there? The focal point for coordination seems obvious. The Coolabah tree in the shade of which they made their camp. He carves instructions into the tree. Dig three feet northwest. He adds the date and abandons the camp. That evening, Burke, Wills and one more man, John King, stagger into the camp. The fourth man died, and the three were so weak it took a whole day to dig his grave. If they hadn't buried him, they'd have been back at Cooper's Creek a day earlier. They try not to think about that. Burke, Wills and King assess their options. Should they follow Bronham back along the track towards the outpost on the Darling River. It's hundreds of miles. They'd never make it. But if a search party comes, it would be from that direction. Burke has another idea. The incomplete maps of Australia show another tiny outpost only 150 miles away along Cooper's Creek. It's called Mount Hopeless. The food from the chest might just be enough for that shorter journey. Burke writes a letter outlining his plans.

[William Brahe (Character)]

We proceed on tomorrow slowly down the creek towards Mount Hopeless. We are very weak. We have all suffered much from hunger. Greatly disappointed at finding the party here gone, we shall move very slowly down the creek.

[Tim Harford (Narrator)]

He puts the letter in a bottle, puts the bottle in the chest and buries it in the same place. The three men briefly discuss whether they should also add a mark to the tree. They decide not to bother. As King later explained, we thought the

[William Wills (Character)]

word dig would answer our purpose as well as theirs.

[Tim Harford (Narrator)]

Obviously, if a search party came to the camp, they'd see the word dig and dig up the chest, wouldn't they? Burke, Wills and King spread dung over the chest so it doesn't look like the ground has been disturbed. They don't want the local to steal it. They leave the abandoned camp looking almost exactly as they found it. Just 90 miles south of Cooper's Creek, William Braher bumps into the man from the pub, William Wright. So he is making his way from the Darling to Cooper's Creek just months later than expected. Wright's instructions, remember, were unclear. He'd explained to Brahe that he'd assumed he should wait for the Royal Society of Victoria to approve his appointment. Burke's checks had been bouncing. He didn't want to set off until he got explicit assurance that he'd be paid. In Melbourne, the Society's committee assumed there was no rush to confirm Wright's appointment because he would have set off already. When Wright eventually did set off, his journey was slow because some of his men were suffering from scurvy. Brahe and Wright agreed there was no longer any point in lugging the rest of the supplies to Cooper's Creek. They should all now return to the Darling. But they shared a nagging worry. What if Burke had made it back? The ill men could use a few days rest. Brahe and Wright decided to ride together quickly back to Cooper's Creek just to check. At Cooper's Creek, Brahe and Wright see no sign that Burke's been there. The camp looks just like we left it, G' Raha tells Wright. They don't bother to dig up the chest. Obviously, if Burke had put a Message there he would have marked the tree. Burke, Wills and King were moving very slowly down the creek. As their note had said, they were just a day's ride away. When Brahe and Wright didn't read that note, the task of reaching Mount Hopeless was looking hopeless.

[William Wills (Character)]

The rations are rapidly diminishing. Our clothing, especially the boots, are all going to pieces. Camel is completely done up and can scarcely get along. I suppose this will end in our having to live like the blacks for a few months.

[Tim Harford (Narrator)]

But they couldn't live like Aboriginal people. They didn't have the skills to catch fish or over 60,000 years worth of accumulated know how on how to extract nourishment from the local plants. The Aboriginal people tried to be kind, bringing gifts of food. Burke fired his revolver to scare them away.

[William Wills (Character)]

King recalled he was afraid of being too friendly, lest they should always be in our camp.

[Tim Harford (Narrator)]

Burke got his wish. They were left alone to slowly starve.

[William Wills (Character)]

My legs and arms are nearly skin and bone.

[Tim Harford (Narrator)]

Burke had learned one noble lesson at least.

[William Brahe (Character)]

He told King, it is my wish that you leave me unburied.

[Tim Harford (Narrator)]

Wright and Brahe made it back to the outpost on the Darling and sent news to Melbourne. Burke was missing. The newspapers were aghast. The Royal Society of Victoria organized a search party and this time found a proper explorer to lead it. They were asked to take a letter with them from Julia Matthews.

[Julia Matthews (Character)]

My dear sir, I dare say you almost forget me, but if you scrape your various reminiscences of the past, you will recollect the laughing and joyous etc. Cupid. All the citizens in Melbourne join in love to you. Bless your little heart.

[Tim Harford (Narrator)]

The search party eventually found a white man living with the Yandrawanda tribe not far from Cooper's Creek.

[William Brahe (Character)]

Who in the name of wonder are you?

[William Wills (Character)]

I am King, sir, of Burke's exploring expedition.

[William Brahe (Character)]

Where is he? And Wills?

[Malcolm Gladwell]

Dead.

[William Wills (Character)]

Both dead Long ago.

[Tim Harford (Narrator)]

After Burke and Wills expired, John King had understood that only friendliness could save him. The news of Burke's death reached Melbourne and the news from King that they actually had made it to the north, not quite as far as the ocean, but to impenetrable mangroves where the water was salty and moved with the tide. Close enough. And the news. They might have made it home if only Brahe had stayed one day longer. Burke was a hero. A tragic, fallen hero. Hero. As the city mourned, a young woman went to a newspaper to place an ad in the Lost and Found column.

[Julia Matthews (Character)]

Lost in the Botanical Gardens yesterday afternoon. A gold bracelet with carbuncle in center and miniature. The finder will be handsomely rewarded.

[Tim Harford (Narrator)]

The newspaper reported the story behind the ad. The miniature portrait lost by Julia Matthews was of none other than Robert o' Hara Burke. Yes, this star of the stage was the fallen hero's sweetheart. Hmm. Had Julia really lost Burke's gift, or had she spied an opportunity for publicity? If it was a stunt, it was cynically brilliant. Robert o' Hara Burke made one catastrophic error after another. He over packed, he ditched the lime juice, he gave unclear instructions, he didn't plan for contingencies, and he failed to appreciate that Aboriginal people had skills he lacked. Yet he still might have been saved if he'd played a better game of what would I do if I were he? Wondering what would he do if he were I To Brahe and Wright, marking the tree was so obvious that they didn't bother to check the chest. To Burke and Wilson, checking the chest was so obvious that they didn't bother to mark the tree. Playing the coordination game, says Thomas Schelling, takes both logic and imagination. Burke and Wills were undone by a failure of both. For a full list of our sources, see the show [e-mail]. Cautionary Tales is written by me, Tim Harford with Andrew Wright, Alice Fiennes and Ryan Dilley. It's produced by Georgia Mills and Marilyn Rust. The sound design and original music are the work of Pascal Wise, additional sound design by Carlos San Juan at Brain Audio and Dan Jackson. Ben Nadaff Haffrey edited the scripts. It features the voice talents of Melanie Gutteridge, Genevieve Gaunt, Stella Harford, Macea Munro, Jamal Westman and Rufus Wright. The show also wouldn't have been possible without the work of Jacob Weisberg, Greta Cohn, Eric Sandler, Carrie Brody, Christina Sullivan, Keira Posey and Owen Miller. Cautionary Tales is a production of Pushkin Industries. If you like the show, please remember to share, rate and review. It really does make a difference to us. And if you want to hear it ad free and receive a bonus audio episode, video episode and members only newsletter every month, why not join the Cautionary Club? To sign up, head to patreon.com cautionaryclub that's patreon P-A-T-R-E-O-N.com cautionary club.

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