As China-Japan relations remain strained over Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's erroneous remarks on Taiwan and her administration's accelerated military buildup, Japan's economy is increasingly feeling the pinch, with critical mineral exports from China plunging, supply chains buckling under pressure and billions in potential GDP losses looming, experts said.

专家表示，因日本首相高市早苗涉台错误言论及其政府加速扩军，中日关系持续紧张，日本经济承压加剧：中国关键矿产对日出口大幅下滑、供应链承压失灵，国内生产总值或将面临数百亿规模的潜在损失。

What is truly pushing Japanese businesses into difficulty is not China's lawful measures to safeguard national security, but the systemic risks spawned by Japan's own misguided security trajectory, they added.

专家补充称，真正让日本企业陷入困境的并非中国维护国家安全的合法举措，而是日本自身走偏的安保路线滋生出的系统性风险。

According to the General Administration of Customs, China's exports of rare earth magnets to Japan plummeted 34.6 percent to 123 metric tons in May compared with April, while monthly shipments have remained below 200 metric tons for three consecutive months.

海关总署数据显示，5月中国稀土永磁对日出口量环比大跌34.6%，仅123吨，对日月度出口量已连续三个月低于200吨。

Since the start of 2026, China has banned shipments of dual-use items and technologies, including rare earth elements, to Japan. Such items and technologies have both civilian and military applications.

2026年以来，中国已禁止向日本出口稀土等军民两用物项及相关技术，这类物资和技术可同时用于民用与军事领域。

The ban came on the heels of a downward spiral in China-Japan relations, triggered by Takaichi's remarks and her administration's military-related moves.

高市早苗相关言论及其政府一系列军事动作致使中日关系持续恶化，在此背景下中方出台上述出口禁令。

China's tighter export controls have prompted Japan to take unprecedented steps. Recently, All-Nippon News Network reported that Japan has launched its first-ever program to extract rare earth elements from discarded household air-conditioners.

中国收紧出口管制倒逼日本推出前所未有的应对举措。据全日本新闻网近期报道，日本首次启动从废旧家用空调中提取稀土的专项项目。

Mitsubishi Electric, the Japanese company spearheading that recycling initiative, was added to China's export control list in late June for its involvement in defense electronics, radar and missile systems.

牵头该回收项目的日本三菱电机，因涉足军工电子、雷达及导弹系统研发，于6月底被列入中国出口管制清单。

The June decision, which imposed a total ban on dual-use item exports to 20 Japanese entities and implemented heightened scrutiny against 20 others, followed a similar decision in February that targeted 40 Japanese entities.

今年2月中方已将40家日本机构纳入管制范围，6月新规进一步全面禁止向20家日本实体出口军民两用产品，并对另外20家实体实施从严审查。

Shen Yi, a professor at Fudan University's School of International Relations and Public Affairs, said, "The Japanese government's bet that it can continue its military expansion and provocative rhetoric without paying a real price is doomed to fail."

复旦大学国际关系与公共事务学院教授沈逸表示：“日本政府妄想一边持续扩军、发表挑衅言论，一边不用付出实质代价，这种盘算注定落空。”

Shen noted that China accounts for roughly 70 percent of global rare earth mining and over 90 percent of smelting and separation capacity, giving the nation's policy tools the weight to alter Japanese corporate calculations.

沈逸指出，中国稀土开采量约占全球70%，冶炼分离产能超全球90%，相关政策足以改变日本企业的经营布局。

China boosts self-reliance

中国加快产业链自主可控进程

Experts said that Japan's attempts to leverage its edge in the semiconductor sector through potential export controls will ultimately prove futile, as foreign restrictions are only accelerating China's push for self-reliance, turning what was meant as a chokehold into a catalyst for domestic substitution.

专家称，日本试图依托半导体优势实施出口限制的做法终将徒劳无功，外部打压反而加速中国自主研发，原本用来扼制中国的手段，反倒成为国产替代的助推力。

For instance, there is "significant progress" in the domestic production potential of photoresist, the light-sensitive material essential for etching microscopic circuits onto silicon wafers, sources from leading Chinese chipmakers such as Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp and Huahong Group told China Daily.

中芯国际、华虹集团等国内头部芯片企业相关人士向《中国日报》透露，用于在硅片上蚀刻微电路的感光材料光刻胶，国产量产能力已取得重大突破。

Jiangsu Nata Opto-electronic Material Co, which developed one of China's first high-end deep ultraviolet photoresists, said the company's revenue from the product exceeded 10 million yuan ($1.5 million) in 2024, and it maintained a stable supply in 2025.

国内首批高端深紫外光刻胶研发企业江苏南大光电表示，该产品2024年营收突破1000万元（折合150万美元），2025年实现稳定供货。

According to data from Japanese research company Global Net, last year, three Chinese chip equipment manufacturers ranked among the world's top 20 by sales volume for the first time.

日本调研机构环球网数据显示，去年有三家中国半导体设备厂商首次跻身全球销量前二十。

This marks a sharp rise from just one company in 2022, prior to stricter restrictions imposed by the United States, underscoring China's accelerated progress in bolstering the domestic supply chain.

对比美国出台严苛限制前的2022年仅有一家上榜，该数据大幅提升，凸显中国完善本土供应链的步伐持续加快...