Analysts warn bilateral relationship remains subject to structural challenges

分析师警示：双边关系仍面临结构性难题

Renewed momentum in China-United States economic ties has helped boost confidence in the global economy while supporting steadier and more resilient bilateral trade in the months ahead, said market watchers and business leaders.

市场观察人士与商界领袖表示，中美经贸关系重拾增长动能，不仅提振全球经济信心，也将推动未来数月双边贸易朝着更平稳、更具韧性的方向发展。

The upbeat remarks came after official General Administration of Customs figures showed a sharp turnaround in bilateral trade in goods. After slumping 18.7 percent year-on-year in the first quarter, China-US goods trade rebounded to post a 13.7 percent year-on-year gain in the second quarter.

此番乐观判断源于中国海关总署官方数据显示，中美货物贸易额出现大幅反转。一季度中美货物贸易同比下滑18.7%，二季度强势反弹，同比增长13.7%。

This trade recovery aligns with fresh bilateral moves to stabilize economic relations. The Ministry of Commerce confirmed that during the latest round of China-US economic and trade consultations held in May, the two sides reached an agreement to negotiate a reciprocal tariff cut framework via a newly established trade council. The deal would cover goods valued at $30 billion or more from each country.

此次贸易回暖，与中美双方近期为稳定经贸关系推出的一系列新举措相呼应。商务部证实，5月新一轮中美经贸磋商期间，两国达成共识，将依托新设立的贸易委员会磋商互惠降税框架，双方各有价值300亿美元及以上商品纳入该框架。

Although neither side has released a final product list, trade analysts expect the tariff cuts to cover textiles, footwear, consumer goods, electronic components, industrial machinery parts, chemicals, plastics and agricultural products, while excluding sectors such as advanced semiconductors and strategic resources.

尽管双方尚未公布最终商品清单，但贸易分析师预测，本次降税范围将涵盖纺织、鞋履、消费品、电子元器件、工业机械零部件、化工品、塑料制品与农产品，先进半导体、战略资源等领域不在降税范围内。

Diao Daming, a professor of international relations at the Beijing-based Renmin University of China, said recent progress in the China-US economic and trade talks has helped bolster business confidence across the world and is creating conditions for more predictable trade and investment.

中国人民大学国际关系教授刁大明表示，近期中美经贸谈判取得的进展提振了全球企业信心，为贸易和投资营造出更稳定可预期的环境。

Yu Xinding, a professor of international trade at the University of International Business and Economics in Beijing, said that once implemented, the new tariff framework will support further growth in China-US trade while setting a positive example for resolving trade disputes through dialogue.

对外经济贸易大学国际贸易教授余心玎称，这套全新关税框架落地后，将进一步拉动中美贸易增长，同时为各国通过对话化解贸易争端树立正面范本。

"Faced with multifaceted costs triggered by tariffs, this move offers a practical solution to help reverse trade distortions created by previous tariffs," said Yu. "The initiative goes far beyond lowering tariffs on selected goods. Equal consultations will improve market access, ease corporate burdens and restore bilateral trade to market-oriented, mutually beneficial dynamics."

余心玎表示：“关税带来多重成本压力，此次举措提供了切实可行的方案，能够扭转过往关税造成的贸易扭曲。该举措的意义远不止下调部分商品关税，平等磋商将拓宽市场准入、减轻企业负担，让双边贸易回归市场化、互利共赢的状态。”

Though modest relative to overall China-US trade, the planned tariff relief targets products with clear market demand and practical benefits, delivering early, verifiable results that can strengthen confidence in two-way economic ties, she added.

她补充道，尽管本次降税规模相较于中美整体贸易体量不算庞大，但降税商品均为市场需求旺盛、具备实际利好的品类，能够快速落地可见成效，巩固双方对经贸往来的信心。

While the recent rebound in bilateral trade points to improving momentum, analysts cautioned that the relationship remains subject to structural challenges and external uncertainties, despite the progress made through dialogue.

尽管近期双边贸易回暖释放向好信号，但分析师提醒，即便对话取得一定进展，中美关系仍存在结构性难题与外部不确定性。

Ma Xue, a researcher at the Institute of American Studies at the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations, said that strategic competition between China and the US in high-tech sectors will continue to intensify, while tighter controls on semiconductors, artificial intelligence and critical minerals, alongside geopolitical tensions, could weigh on the bilateral trade climate.

中国现代国际关系研究院美国研究所研究员马雪表示，中美在高科技领域的战略竞争或将持续加剧，半导体、人工智能、关键矿产领域管控趋严，叠加地缘政治紧张局势，都可能对双边贸易环境造成负面影响。

"Overall, institutionalized consultations and differentiated management of disputes could help offset short-term political disruptions," Ma said. "Although disagreements and periodic bargaining will persist, structured cooperation, accompanied by occasional friction in specific sectors, is likely to become the new normal in bilateral economic ties."

马雪称：“总体而言，制度化磋商、差异化处理分歧能够对冲短期政治层面带来的冲击。双方分歧与阶段性博弈仍会存在，但常态化合作、局部领域偶有摩擦或将成为中美经贸关系的新常态。”

Data from the General Administration of Customs also showed that China-US goods trade reached 2 trillion yuan ($295 billion) in the first half of the year, accounting for 7.9 percent of China's total foreign trade.

海关总署数据显示，今年上半年中美货物贸易总额达2万亿元人民币（折合2950亿美元），占中国外贸总额的7.9%。

James Zimmerman, chairman of the American Chamber of Commerce in China, said he hopes this year will be a productive one for China-US relations, noting that current China-US trade policy is increasingly characterized by a "managed trade" approach centered on reciprocity.

中国美国商会主席吉莫曼表示，他期待今年成为中美关系富有成效的一年，并指出当下中美贸易政策愈发呈现以互惠为核心的“管控型贸易”特征。

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