What does it take to make a living betting on politics? Can prediction markets offer insights about the future that other analyses cannot?

To find out, ChinaTalk interviewed Domer, a professional prediction markets bettor. Domer is the number one trader by volume on Polymarket, and he’s been trading since 2007. He initially entered this world through poker, but now makes bets about who will win foreign elections, whether wars will start, and whether bills will become law.

We discuss…

Why some issues — like Romanian elections, the NYC mayoral race, or Zelenskyy’s outfit choices — can attract hundreds of millions of dollars in trading volume,
Systematic biases in prediction markets, including why they overestimate the likelihood of a Taiwan contingency,
What happens to prediction markets in the absence of insider trading regulations,
Why prediction markets are still a solo endeavor, and what a profit-maximizing team of traders would look like,
Bonus: How betting markets backfired on Romanian nationalists, what AI can teach you about betting, and other insights on winning from one of Domer’s contemporaries.

Outro music: Bob Dylan - Rambling, Gambling Willie (YouTube Link)

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Betting on Chaos: Professionals in Prediction Markets