ChinaTalk: "Military Revolutions with Ed Luttwak"
Host: Jordan Schneider
Guest: Edward Luttwak
Date: February 1, 2026
Overview
In this wide-ranging conversation, celebrated military strategist Edward Luttwak explores the evolution of warfare—from the influence of technological revolutions to the enduring impact of classical texts like Homer’s Iliad. Luttwak intertwines personal history, strategic theory, and sweeping historical parallels to analyze Europe’s martial heritage, the perils of leadership hubris, and the implications of China’s rise. The discussion is rich with storytelling, practical insights from lived experience, and sharp, memorable judgments about war, peace, and the shape of global power.
Ed Luttwak’s Unique Approach to History
Background & Intellectual Formation
- Luttwak attributes his broad, comparative approach to his upbringing in the multiethnic Banat region of Romania, followed by years in Palermo and the UK. Exposure to multiple cultures, languages, and religious communities shaped his “everything, everywhere, all at once” mindset ([00:00–06:00]).
- He credits ‘accidents of life’—fleeing Communism, learning Latin from an unorthodox teacher in Sicily, and British boarding school with Jewish and German refugee professors—for forging his worldview ([03:51–09:41]).
- Memorable moment: “I learned Sicilian and Latin in Palermo, then went to a British boarding school run by refugee German professors who taught at the university level” ([05:45]).
Family Survival During WWII
- Luttwak highlights the survival of his Jewish community in Banat, Romania, attributing it to proactive leadership, not mere luck—a story often neglected in Holocaust memory ([03:49–10:00]).
- Quote: “It was a survival that was not accidental...they acted as if the leaders of a nation under attack and used every method.” ([04:50])
The Study and Experience of War
Why Study War?
- War is intrinsic to understanding society’s organization, leadership, and the limits of human achievement. Luttwak frames it not as glorification, but critical inquiry into controlled violence and societal structure ([15:55–17:14]).
- Quote: “Coming from a family that came from World War II, arriving in Sicily where the controlled use of violence was the essence of society...I was determined to take part in any war I could.” ([15:59])
On Experiencing War
- Luttwak recounts his participation as a reservist in the 1967 and 1973 Arab-Israeli wars—emphasizing how direct combat dispelled romantic notions of bravery and highlighted the mundane, randomized nature of danger ([26:53–36:00]).
- Quote: “I discovered a lot of things I thought about combat were wrong...You don't have to be brave.” ([27:30])
- Contrasts between different theaters—jungle unpreparedness in Borneo vs. methodical British training ([36:00–38:25]).
Military Revolutions and Technology in Warfare
Incremental and Abrupt Change
- Technology often evolves imperceptibly until it provokes sudden, sweeping transformation in the character of war—e.g., the introduction of the Maxim gun, tanks, radar ([38:25–42:32]).
- Quote: “Technology intervenes incrementally and invisibly changing nothing. Then suddenly technology intervenes and changes everything.” ([41:40])
- Example: Arrival of firearms in Europe vs. Japan’s shutdown of warfare; the tank breaking WWI stalemate ([39:44–42:32]).
Recommended Books
- Robert Graves' Goodbye to All That: Literary, tactical insights into WWI ([42:42]).
- The British Official History of the Strategic Bombing Offensive (Frankland): Action/reaction and the complex logic of technological adaptation ([42:42–49:44]).
- Clausewitz’s On War: Not for linear reading, but as a reference—especially his sections on mounting warfare and levels of conflict ([49:44–59:00]).
The Logic and Levels of War
Tactical, Operational, and Theatrical Levels
- Luttwak, channeling Clausewitz, explains how victories at one level (tactical/operational) can be nullified by failures at another (theater/strategy level).
- Example: German operational brilliance in WWII stymied by supply and geographic constraints ([49:46–52:30]).
- Quote: “Tactically strong, operationally weakness...You can have the experience of the Germans who won every battle in WWII and lost the war because they could not transcend operational victory to achieve theater victory.” ([49:49])
Recent Examples
- Russian failure in Ukraine, Israeli vulnerability in 1973, and Hamas surprise attacks demonstrate dangers of innovation fixation or neglecting the basics ([54:00–59:00]).
The Role of Classical Texts: The Iliad
On Why to Read Homer
- Luttwak champions the Iliad as the foundational text for understanding both war and Western civilization. The text’s lessons on mortality, heroism, and the limitations of gods vs. men resonate deeply ([67:50–73:00]).
- Quote: “The Iliad presents a superman...who feels sorry for the gods, because the gods are immortal, therefore they can never be brave.” ([68:00])
- Notes the Iliad’s enduring popularity in China—multiple commercial translations and state-sponsored editions ([65:52–67:11]).
- Story: Most beautiful edition of his own Byzantine book was published by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences ([67:13]).
Europe, War, and Dynamism
The Engine of Europe
- Luttwak asserts Europe’s historic dynamism sprang from continual inter-state competition and war, with the Iliad as the “constitution of Europe” ([78:00–79:47]).
- Quote: “War was the machine...Every time there was a war, there’d be more children...somebody had the idea of removing war from Europe. What a horrible idea.” ([79:47])
- The pacification of Europe (post-WWII, nuclear deterrence, EU integration) is seen as responsible for demographic stagnation and loss of dynamism ([79:49–86:26]).
- “There are more veterinarians than pediatricians in northern Italy. There are children actually.” ([80:30])
Capa(x) Belli
- Luttwak introduces his own coinage: capax belli—the capacity for war. Most European states, postwar, have lost this vital quality ([86:26]).
Historical Parallels: Germany 1914 and China Today
The Tragedy of Great Power Ambition
- Drawing on Germany’s rise and collapse in the early 20th century, Luttwak warns about the temptation for rising powers—like contemporary China—to challenge the naval protector of their own commerce, risking disaster ([87:03–100:44]).
- Quote: “To make these mistakes, you need intellectuals...the fleet professors in Germany, the theorists now in China.” ([99:20])
- Bismarck's wisdom: know when you have reached the “culminating point of success,” and stop before triggering a coalition against you ([91:48–99:20]).
Xi Jinping and Leadership Pathology
- Luttwak sees China’s current path as shaped by leadership psychodrama and the seduction of heroic renewal, even against rational economic self-interest ([101:35–105:41]).
- Xi’s obsession with rejuvenation, the dangers of intellectual rationalizations for military challenge, and historical examples of temporal claustrophobia (e.g., Hitler’s rushed aggression) ([101:35–102:45]).
- “For the Chinese...to challenge the US Navy is totally irrational. So in order to rationalize the irrational, you have to fantasize.” ([116:45])
Deterrence and the Mind of the Enemy
Principles of Deterrence
- Luttwak stresses: deterrence operates in the mind of the adversary, not in the number of missiles fielded ([105:41–113:36]).
- Quote: “Deterrence starts in understanding the mind of the enemy. You don’t do deterrence. Deterrence happens in the mind of the enemy.” ([106:32])
- Examples: US misunderstanding of Iranian motivations (you can’t deter Persians by bombing Arabs), Soviet and Russian mindsets, the challenge of deterring autocracies.
China as an Autocracy
- Key policy prescription: Accept that autocracy means single-person decision-making—target Xi Jinping’s calculus, not just “China” in the abstract ([115:07]).
- Stories of purges and dissent suppression at the highest levels in China ([115:01–118:45]).
Democracy vs Autocracy in Warfare
Strengths and Weaknesses
- Autocracies can launch surprise attacks and pursue policy single-mindedly but lack error-correcting mechanisms ([126:59]).
- Democracies, in contrast, foster initiative, true enthusiasm, and adaptability—qualities stifled by autocratic obedience ([127:16–129:28]).
- Quote: “In a democracy, you actually care to do the right thing, you want to succeed...not to appear to be doing the right thing.” ([128:10])
Rapid Fire: Historical Analogies
- Trump: Cleon, the populist rival of Pericles—loud, plausible, but vulgar ([134:39]).
- Netanyahu: Cincinnatus—warrior turned civilian, ready to serve; “but staying in power, your mind becomes blunter” ([136:19]).
- Xi Jinping: A victim of Stockholm syndrome, “deeply sick” in his adulation for Mao despite Mao’s persecution of his family ([138:01–142:00]).
- Biden: Luttwak knows him personally; praises his foreign policy insight but laments his staff as “Obama people” who undermine his best instincts ([145:45–150:39]).
Books & Learning Recommendations
- Essential Reading:
- Official History of the Strategic Bombing Offensive (Frankland)
- Clausewitz’s On War
- Tacitus’ Histories and Annals (“...every phrase was composed as an epigram”, [151:28])
- Thucydides’ Peloponnesian War
- “If you read these basic books thoroughly and seriously and pick them up when they grip you...these books will get you there 95% otherwise.” ([155:20])
The Next Technological Revolution: Artificial Intelligence and Warfare
- Luttwak is examining the disruptive potential of AI and digital technologies for intelligence, command/control, and even civil aviation (removal of pilots, autonomous navigation) ([156:27–162:14]).
- Quote: “Artificial intelligence could be a big one because of this recomposition factor...” ([159:08])
Personal Reflections: Judaism
- Luttwak describes a secular but culturally-rich relationship to Judaism, valuing its collective rather than individual promises and sense of historical survival ([163:29–end]).
- Quote: “Judaism is actually a religion that makes no individual promises at all, only collective one...Other nations will come and go, and you will not.” ([165:20])
Notable Quotes & Moments
- “Overthrowing governments is not easy. First we have to do this, then we have to do that...My book [Coup d’État: A Practical Handbook] is written from the perspective of someone planning a coup.” ([26:55])
- “Bravery is possible only because you’re not immortal. If you were a god, you could never be brave.” ([68:00])
- “Removing war was like removing the engine from the car. Since you remove war from Europe, Europeans stop making children.” ([79:47])
- “For the Chinese...to challenge the US Navy is totally irrational. So in order to rationalize the irrational, you have to fantasize.” ([116:45])
- “Democracies have historically done very well...much more initiative at every level and the ability to have true enthusiasm, dedication.” ([127:16])
Timestamps: Important Segments
- [00:00–03:49] Luttwak’s early years in Banat and formative influences
- [15:55–17:14] Why study war? War and society
- [26:53–36:00] Personal combat experiences, debunking myths about bravery
- [38:25–49:44] How technology increments or transforms warfare, relevent literature
- [59:00–67:13] Levels of war and the recursive action-reaction dynamic
- [67:50–73:00] The case for Homer’s Iliad in understanding war and leadership
- [78:00–86:26] Europe's martial engine, consequences of peace, and loss of capacity for war
- [87:03–100:44] German and Chinese power tragedy, hubris, and the perils of overreach
- [105:53–113:36] The real logic of deterrence: Inside the enemy mind
- [115:01–118:45] How to think about deterrence with China
- [127:10–129:28] Autocracy vs. democracy in military effectiveness
- [134:39–155:20] Parallels between modern and historical leaders, recommended readings
- [156:27–162:14] Reflecting on artificial intelligence and the next revolution
- [163:29–end] Personal relationship to Judaism and its historical lessons
Closing Thoughts
Ed Luttwak’s conversation on ChinaTalk is a masterclass in strategic analysis, blending autobiography with deep historical knowledge and incisive analogies. He elucidates how understanding war is essential not just for security, but for grasping how societies, leaders, and even civilizations work—and how their passions and mistakes shape the fate of nations.