ChinaTalk – Second Breakfast: Iran, Munich + European Defense Tech, Anthropic

February 20, 2026
Host: Jordan Schneider
Guest Highlights: Eric Schlesinger (201 Ventures), Brian, Tony, and others

Episode Overview

This “Second Breakfast” episode dives deep into the volatility in the Persian Gulf (whiffs of World War Three), the shifting US and European defense posture, emergent European defense-tech startup culture, and the state of AI/AGI and its geopolitical implications. Special guest Eric Schlesinger brings insight from both his VC work in European defense tech and his prior intelligence background, including fresh reporting from the 2026 Munich Security Conference. The discussion blends high-level global strategy with ground-level anecdotes, painting a rich picture of military, technological, and political trends defining this moment.

1. Iran Crisis & Shifting US Military Posture

US Military Build-up and Dilemmas

• The US has concentrated about 15 ships (Abraham Lincoln and Ford carrier groups) and roughly 100 tactical aircraft in the CENTCOM area to deter or respond to Iranian actions.
  • Quote: “The president’s going to be forced to make either Iran say they gave us something and call victory, or we’re going to have to go blow something up and then claim victory." – D [01:10]
• This surge leaves other global theaters nearly uncovered, draining presence in Asia and Europe.
  • Quote: “We’ve basically denuded every other theater. Right now, we’re running on fumes.” – D [01:46]
• The financial cost isn't immediate, since these assets were already deployed, but will escalate if the standoff continues.
• US is forced into sea-based platforms since regional allies (UAE, Saudi Arabia) and even the UK are restricting base and airspace access—no one wants a war on their doorstep.
  • Quote: “It avoids the whole challenge of getting host nation approval... It’s obviously bad for business if you start a war in their backyard.” – D [04:15]

The Saudi & Gulf Partner Perspective

• Saudi Arabia is reluctant to support US escalation, given vulnerabilities of Aramco and their populations close to Iran.
• The US’s ambiguous security guarantees (“We’re not going to defend you if you’re not going to buy our Patriot batteries”) undermine trust.
• Arms Sales Angle: US pressure on Iran might also be a strategy to dust up business for US defense contractors in the Gulf.
  • Quote: “This is the three dimensional chess you’re missing... We sell them stuff. I’ve had plenty of time sitting in a room drinking tea with MBS to sell him destroyers.” – D [07:43]

Nuclear Negotiation Impasse

• No viable “winset” exists for a renewed nuclear deal—US demands zero enrichment; Iran sees that as unacceptable capitulation.
• The standoff thus becomes a “rhetorical grounding for a war.”
  • Quote: “The strategic winset of ‘let’s negotiate over the nuclear program’ does not exist. Two different authoritarian regimes are speaking directly... saying there is no middle ground.” – C [09:15]

2. Non-Proliferation, Deterrence, and the “Next Bomb”

Collapse of Deterrence Norms

• New START is collapsing. Major power nuclear arms control is dead unless China joins (which is unlikely).
• US posture toward Iran is raising incentives worldwide for other states to seek their own deterrents.
  • Quote: “We’re creating a world in which more states are going to want nukes.” – E [11:41]
• North Korea’s example: Once a state “gets the bomb,” the cost/benefit calculus for US/Allied intervention completely changes.

Libya Trauma and Japan/Poland Anxiety

• Non-proliferation credibility suffered when Gaddafi surrendered WMD and was overthrown regardless; this haunts conservative US policymakers now in power.
• Quote: “Non proliferation could have worked, but we elected to not make it work... That lesson, what the US did to Libya.” – C [15:16]
• Doubts among allies (Europe, Japan) about US extended deterrence are growing—will US really trade LA or Chicago for an ally's security?
• European and Japanese strategists are openly raising the prospect of national nuclear programs, especially in Poland.
  • Quote: “The Poles are not going to rely on the whims of 40,000 voters in San Jose and France... They are sufficiently wealthy and hard nosed.” – C [19:30]

3. The Munich Security Conference and European Defense Tech

Reporting from Munich: A Cultural Inflection Point

• The European defense tech scene is finally coming of age.
• Defense startups, previously excluded, now have legitimacy; meetings between intelligence heads and founders are common.
  • Quote: “I was in a meeting with a head of Five Eyes Intelligence service, and there was a number of founders in that room and that head...was listening intently.” – F [56:31]
• German government investments in firms like Helsing signal a real change, but painful absence of funding for traditional primes is notable.

European VC/Startup Differences

• US defense startups enjoy a multi-year head start and a tech->defense orientation; European firms are often defense-first, tech-second.
• European exit options: increasingly, startups aspire to “patriotic premium” exits—being bought out by national champions or in government-sheltered deals, especially as EU attitudes shift toward tech sovereignty.
• ITAR-avoiding “islands” are promising: Non-US startups with unique tech may fetch high values from primes seeking easy exportability.

Government Procurement, Contracting, and Bureaucracy

• European contracting remains tangled; major primes try hard to block startup competition (with lobbying and politics).
• Northern/Eastern European nations (Estonia, Poland, Nordics) have the most adaptive procurement systems (and the most urgency).
• Corporate espionage (especially by France) remains rampant and is just “part of the game.”
  • Quote: “There’s this famous story in the 90s of Air France being used by the French DGSE to mic in headsets...to monitor conversations.” – C [36:23]

Ukraine and Technological Cross-pollination

• Successful Ukrainian defense tech is highly effective (“decisive”), especially on cost-per-effect metrics.
• Some skepticism remains about scalability, and the market is careful to discredit grifters trying to profit off “Ukrainian-tech” claims.

4. Military Adaptability and the AI Race

Infrastructure for Fast Innovation

• Key insight from Ukraine: the need for infrastructure that enables rapid software/hardware adaptation (CI/CD pipelines, modular middleware, etc.)
• European startups are beginning to focus here (e.g., Alterian), carving out middleware roles for autonomous systems.

AGI, Large Language Models, and Tech Sovereignty

• Europeans are “painfully aware” of their lag behind the US (Anthropic, OpenAI, Palantir) in AGI and transformative LLMs.
  • Quote: "Everyone knows [AI/AGI] will be [decisive], but the problem is there actually isn’t like a pan-European version." – F [45:48]
• Attempts at pan-European or “Airbus for AI” efforts (Mistral, etc.) are half-baked and seen as unlikely to succeed at scale. National efforts (especially French) are most advanced.

US Data Rights and Defense AI Politics

• The US is wrestling with how defense contractors, Palantir, Anthropic, etc., share, control, and classify data and AI models.
• This creates a possible opening for Europe to pitch itself as "land of the free" for defense AI—but skepticism about a pan-European market remains due to privacy politics.

Autonomy and Regulation

• Europe is still fragmented on lethal autonomy (“human-machine teaming” remains doctrine); implementation will be piecemeal, not imposed by Brussels.
  • Quote: “The term we hear more is human machine teaming... I think we're still where we're at right now in Europe.” – F [51:27]
• Helsing (Swedish-German AI defense startup) cited as a case study: forward position on ethics and "human-in-the-loop" norms.
• Real legalistic inertia remains; change will likely be reactive, not proactive—most expect Poland or Estonia would move first on high-autonomy systems if Russian threat intensifies.

5. Munich Security Conference Shift & Closing Thoughts

“Second Breakfast” at Munich: Defense Tech Now Mainstream

• The conference is not only Europe-focused, but draws delegations globally (e.g., Malaysia), and now is a major venue for startup networking and visibility.
• Founders now network side-by-side with senior diplomats, spooks, and corporate buyers; the “old guard” is giving ground to the technologists.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Clausewitz Burn:
  • “Yeah, they read Clausewitz like they write 100 Years of Solitude.” – C [06:45]
• AI-privacy Satire:
  • “I’m imagining having to click accept cookies every time I want to chat to Claude now for every conversation.” – F [48:40]
• Munich Change:
  • “You used to have to be in the Bayerscherhof itself... Now you can be there and lobby surf and side events all day long and you can get a ton out of it. That’s the mark of a good movement for MSC.” – F [58:19]

6. Extended Deterrence and the Future of the West

Extended Deterrence in Question

• Marco Rubio’s widely-noted Munich speech (quoted in full at the end) marks a major rhetorical shift: US now frames itself as "guardian of Christendom" and Western civilization, with renewed spiritual and civilizational justification for alliance and force.
  • Quote: “We in America have no interest in being polite and orderly caretakers of the West’s managed decline. The only fear we have is the fear of the shame of not leaving our nations prouder, stronger and wealthier for our children.” – Rubio [59:14]
• The speech is seen as both a comfort and a warning: Europe senses the US is drifting toward transactional, less reliable security commitments.
  • “There’s no defense professional who could hear that [Rubio speech] and say, oh, you know, let’s relax. This is a different United States.” – C [23:28]

Timestamps for Key Segments

| Time | Topic | |-----------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 00:00–09:00 | US–Iran confrontation, military buildup, regional global implications | | 09:00–16:30 | Nuclear stand-off, non-proliferation dilemmas, Libya and deterrence | | 16:30–21:00 | European and Japanese nuclear anxieties, Poland’s future | | 24:00–34:00 | Munich recap, defense tech ecosystem, VC/startup culture (Eric S.) | | 35:00–41:00 | Espionage in Europe, Ukraine’s defense tech influence | | 42:00–47:00 | Adaptability, middleware, and software innovation; AGI/AI competition | | 47:00–54:00 | Data rights, AI commercialization, autonomy regulation in Europe | | 54:00–59:00 | Evolution of Munich Security Conference, defense tech’s rise | | 59:14–62:55 | (Insert) Full Marco Rubio speech at Munich as US creed statement |

Takeaways

• US force projection is increasingly unsustainable; partners less willing to enable escalation in the Gulf.
• Non-proliferation norms are in retreat; US credibility shaken, new bomb races likely.
• Europe’s defense tech scene has matured—startups and VCs now accepted as vital, credible industry players.
• Europe struggles to generate its own “OpenAI,” but is learning from US/UK/Ukraine experience; sovereignty and privacy remain substantial barriers.
• Regulation of AI and autonomous weapons will likely remain fragmented and reactive, not coordinated at EU level.
• Transatlantic relations are shifting: the US’s civilizational rhetoric signals both deepening ties and growing strategic independence.

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