ChinaTalk Podcast – "Transistor Radio: WFE and Doug's Claude Code Psychosis"

Date: January 8, 2026
Host: Jordan Schneider
Featured Guests: Doug, Dylan (and cameo commentary/rap from Sam)
Theme: Exploring the intersection of China tech, US-China policy, semiconductor industry developments, the operationalization of AI agents like Claude Code, and deep dives into the workflow and culture of industry analysts.

Episode Overview

Main Purpose:
This episode interweaves two primary threads:

1. Announcing and discussing ambitious new plans at SemiAnalysis to build a comprehensive China-focused research arm—including deep tracking of Chinese wafer fab equipment (WFE), chip companies, and the energy/industrial tech landscape.
2. Doug’s “psychosis”-level adoption of Anthropic’s Claude Code (Opus 4.5) AI agent for all facets of information work, from coding to workflow automation—framed as an inflection point as momentous as the advent of deep learning or the earliest “deep research” deployments.

The tone is rapid-fire, geeky, self-deprecating, and highly conversational, hopping from hard tech and hiring plans to rhapsodizing about AI habits—and always in the context of US-China tech competition.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. SemiAnalysis Launches China Research Practice

• (03:20–06:28) Dylan lays out the 2026 roadmap:
  • SemiAnalysis is building a new vertical devoted to tracking all major Chinese WFE makers to the same granularity as their American/Japanese peers.
  • Plans to cover Chinese chemical, precursor, photoresist, and etchant suppliers, as well as memory, logic, and chip fabrication players.
  • Japan is included in the “Western” research bucket (“we are annexing, so my annex is Japan” – Dylan, 03:32).
  • Early next week, they’ll post detailed breakdowns of China’s WFE share by fab type—noting the confusion around acronyms: “Can we just settle on one? […] I hate this.” (Dylan, 04:25)
• Hiring a superstar team: Dylan shares excitement over a Chinese national grad student who called him out on errors in his analysis and deeply impressed him on niche Chinese DRAM/memory players.

2. The Naming Problem (Chinese Company Names)

• (06:28–06:49) The team discusses the awkwardness of only using Westernized short forms (e.g., CXMT) versus Chinese names (“Changxin”), agreeing to lean into learning the actual Mandarin terms, both for accuracy and deeper immersion.
• “You're about to meet us at our most Chinese point in our life. That's the plan.” (Doug, 06:38)

3. Doug’s Total Claude Code Psychosis

• (07:35–14:29, 15:01–16:16, 20:01–31:25)
  • Doug details his “conversion” to coding and workflow via Claude Code (Anthropic’s AI agent, specifically Opus 4.5), calling it a “step change”:
    • “Opus 4.5 is a step change. I was messing around with it before, but now it one-shots everything. It's way better.” (Doug, 07:35)
    • “It’s all a skill issue now.” (Doug, recurring theme)
    • Doug uses Claude for charting, reporting, coding bots, automating daily and compliance tasks—even calendaring and IPO tracking—outputting everything in Obsidian for persistent, searchable storage (“I’m finally converted to Obsidian,” 10:38).
    • “Every chart in my year end outlook that was made by Claude. Every chart that was in the slack today that was made by, by a Claude. Bro. Like I'm not joking. It's a skill issue now.” (Doug, 08:48)
    • “I vibe coded five kalshi bots.” (Doug, 08:48)

Memorable Workflow Quotes:

• “I’ve completely outsourced all of that to Claude code. I don’t have a single thought. It does everything for me, bro.” (Doug, 09:39)
• “If you open up too big files, too big of files on PDF sometimes that, that creates issues. […] But honestly, man, I don’t know. At this point in time, I think everything that is a problem is a skill issue on my end.” (Doug, 19:18)
• “It’s like, it is completely on me. It’s a skill issue. I, I deeply believe that.” (Doug, 19:38)
• “Opus 4.5 is AGI.” (Doug, 19:10)
• “I’m Claude Codepilled. I feel generally euphoric about its potential.” (Doug, 20:36)

Persistent AI Research/Note-Taking

• Obsidian as a persistent Markdown “second brain”, with Claude driving input and context (“Everything I’ve ever thought of,” Doug, 39:01).
• Comparison to past “note app hype cycles”: “I had a Rome phase. I had an Obsidian phase. This is not. It’s not the same thing. Put some respect on the name. It’s totally different.” (Jordan, 39:13–39:19)

The Skill Issue Mantra

• Throughout, Doug repeats “it’s all a skill issue now”—meaning that the constraint isn’t the AI anymore, but whether you as user know how to employ it, grant it access, and articulate complex tasks.

Bottlenecks and Wishes

• What would make the biggest difference? “If Token throughput could magically 100x, I would be euphoric.” (Doug, 21:06)

4. AI in Real Life (Age of Empires, Custom RTS, AGI Anxiety)

• (12:07–14:29) Dylan describes group Age of Empires II matches with other AI researchers, leading to a roommate (Sholto) coding an entire AI-themed RTS in a week—entirely prompted via Claude.
• (14:54) “He’s just prompting the model constantly… during this game, he’s like, dude, I became a zombie. I just type my ideas and I just click yes.” (Dylan)
• The new game features factions (US vs. China), competing through the industrial to AGI future with unique modifiers and hyper-optimized agentic gameplay.

5. Generative UIs and Workflows – The Near Future

• (16:25–18:07) Dylan shares that Lambda’s founder believes “UI is going to be generative. It’s going to change according to what you prompt and want. Token streaming into your fucking eyeballs.”
• Doug predicts:

  “I am excited for the true maxi future, where you buy a computer and there’s no software at all. It just starts with a Claude Code API and you build your own software... All software, whatever OS, it doesn’t matter.” (Doug, 15:51–16:16)

6. Market Commentary, TSMC Expansion, Bubbles & Industry Gossip

• (22:38–27:27)
  • Quickfire takes on: Trump’s on-again, off-again stance with LBT; Oracle’s “dumb” debt round; Meta Super Intelligence rumors and staff drama; Nvidia’s role “saving Intel” by buying up all TSMC N3 wafers.
  • On TSMC scale limits: “If they were to double their capex, that means they would have to... employ 200% of Taiwan. You run out of construction workers.” (Doug, 26:39)
  • "If you're not a frontier node, you have child labor or Filipinos and Malaysians. I think that's the answer." (Jordan, 27:19)

7. SemiAnalysis Growth & Hiring

• (42:19–43:03, 51:27–52:00)
  • Massive ramp-up: hiring for China analysts, Singapore analysts, AI analysts, technical staff—anywhere in the world. Open calls to “slop sons” (hardcore followers).
  • China research: “I think the world needs better China research. I don't think people will pay for it…” (Dylan, 43:08)
  • Dylan jokes about whether five Singaporean juniors are even necessary: "What if we make them as good as we can, then we give them nuclear power? Then you have five roaming nuclear power bombed arm robots..." (Doug, 37:50)

8. APIs, Tech Stack & Automation Dreams

• Intense bullishness on APIs: “APIs are priceless is my vibe… the data is more valuable than any of the form factor.” (Doug, 36:44)
• Speculation that tools like Bloomberg would be better if they just provided clean APIs for Claude to query versus their current model.

9. Cultural Meme – “Meeting Someone at Their Most Chinese”

• (45:08–46:33) The “you’ve met me at a very Chinese time in my life” meme, symbolizing the rising trendiness of deep China knowledge and industrial culture.
• Doug on the Ishowspeed China tour being an inflection point for China’s cultural trendiness.

10. Personal Life, Morning Routines, and Parenting with AI

• (31:37–32:52, 46:47–47:37)
  • Morning: Doug begins days with Claude-driven workflows; Dylan blends biohacking shakes and sauna time.
  • Jordan’s daughter escapes her crib to demand attention at 6:10 AM; the team jests that Claude Code will raise the next generation.

Notable Quotes with Timestamps

On China Research, Ambition, and Hiring:

• “We are going to track everything. All the Chinese wafer fab equipment manufacturers to the detail that we track American ones… All the Chinese chemical suppliers, photoresist, etchants, precursors…”
  — Dylan, 03:32

• "You're about to meet us at our most Chinese point in our life. That's the plan."
  — Doug, 06:38

On Claude Code Workflow & AI Agency:

• “Cloud code is delicious and it's a little sycophantic and it's super addictive and I have completely decided to give my life up to it… it's all a skill issue now. Like I'm really telling you it's all a skill issue.”
  — Doug, 08:05–08:48

• "Opus 4.5 is AGI."
  — Doug, 19:10

• “I have daily calendars. Be like, hey, I needed this by this day. And whatever's like, hey, I need you to give this to me… For example, the reason why I knew what IPO today is because I put it in. Like when I did the filing, I like did. I had Claude code look for the filings for Minimax and gpu… Made it all of it, exported it all to Excel... It’s pretty good.”
  — Doug, 09:39

• "Honestly, it's all skill. It's all skill issues now. I'm very, very, very Claude code code pilled." — Doug, 11:24

On Workflow Transformation:

• "It's just a home for markdown files. And we have the AI that lives on top of it, which is what we all dreamed of."
  — Jordan, 11:38

• “It's the first time where I feel like—I just don't think I would let you rip it out of my cold dead hands… Put some respect on the name. It’s totally different.”
  — Doug, 39:13–39:19

On Generative UIs, Tech Stack, and the Future:

• “I'm excited for the true maxi future where you buy a computer and there's no software at all. It just starts with a Claude Code API and… you build your own software…”
  — Doug, 15:51
• “UI is going to change according to what you say and what you prompt and what you want. And, and, and it's just going to be token streaming into your fucking eyeballs.”
  — Dylan (on Lambda's founder), 16:25

On the “Skill Issue” Mantra:

• "At this point in time, I think everything that is a problem is a skill issue on my end… It’s like, it is completely on me. It’s a skill issue. I, I deeply believe that."
  — Doug, 19:38

• "The more important, most important part about this is like having a persistent store. So I've been using Obsidian. I'm finally converted to Obsidian." — Doug, 10:38

On Industrial China’s Cultural Moment:

• “China’s hot… I think the Ishowspeed China tour… that was one of the first things that really made it trendy and cool. And then all the influencers started to go, and then they're like, oh my God, it's so futuristic.”
  — Doug, 45:14

Fun & Memorable Moments

• AI breakfast shakes and sauna: Dylan’s quirky morning stack—a Brian Johnson protocol–inspired shake consumed in the sauna, accompanies Slack/text catching-up (31:46)
• Age of Empires II as AI Researcher’s Playground: Dylan hosts epic AOE2 tournaments with researchers from Anthropic, OpenAI, etc. (12:07–13:05)
• Meta Super Intelligence drama: The rumored “factions” and staff rumors in the Meta AI bubble, complete with 996 Chinese labor jokes. (24:05–24:35)
• Venezuelan turbines as a meme: Dylan’s X post joking about America invading Venezuela for “underused turbines” leads to real policymakers pinging him. (52:08)
• Sam’s satirical rap outro:

  “White on black is the truth / Claw’s my only gun / I’ll call him Maxi / Pill you every chart I ever posted / didn’t touch a single key...”
  (Sam, 54:04–54:50)

Suggested Listening (Timestamps)

• SemiAnalysis China Practice Launch: 03:20–06:28
• Doug’s Claude Code Manifesto: 07:35–14:29
• Workflow Meltdown and Automation: 20:01–31:25
• Market Bubble/Gossip Round: 22:38–27:27
• Hiring / SemiAnalysis Expansion: 42:19–43:03, 51:27–52:00
• "Skill Issue" Mantra and AI Psychosis: Throughout, but especially 19:10–21:25, 37:50–41:34
• China Cultural Trendiness: 45:08–46:33
• Sam’s Rap Summary: 54:04–54:50

Conclusion

This episode is a riotous mix of inside-baseball industry gossip, bravado about AI “changing everything,” and sincere, detail-rich discussion of the challenges (and cultural fun) of tracking China’s tech industry.
Doug’s “Claude code pilling” is not just a workflow upgrade; it’s treated as a lived, euphoric paradigm shift—one with real stakes for the future of information work, competitive analysis, and even personal agency at the computer.

Final Quote:
"I'm Claude Codepilled. I feel generally euphoric about its potential. And personally, I think everyone should try it because I think it will change your mind of what's possible." – Doug, 20:36

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