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- [00:04]
Lt. Gen. John W. Brennan, Jr.
Super.
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Host 1 (possibly a senior military or defense analyst)
Our first active duty guest here on War Talk, joined today by Lt. Gen. John W. Brennan, Jr. Deputy commander of U.S. africa Command, dialing in from Stuttgart. He used to boss Justin around for a while, and we're looking forward to Justin perhaps getting a little bit of revenge today. Tbd. Why don't you. Why don't you kick us off, Justin? Where should we start?
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Justin (podcast co-host or interviewer)
Yeah, so I'll start off with one of my favorite stories from my own career that doesn't involve, like, shooting or blowing things up is we had a major who I didn't necessarily see eye to eye with Colonel Brennan at the time. Colonel Brennan had sent me to work in the Amman embassy, and this major decided that I needed to report to him instead of the colonel. I think it was about two weeks went by, and all of a sudden I get an email and it's just like, hey, haven't heard much from you. What's going on? I forward him the reports that I had been writing over that time, and then the next day he comes over just with an email very nicely to everyone that says, hey, just so everyone's clear, Justin works for me and he reports only to me. So please direct all questions to the tower from this point forward. Yeah, I think really like a really storied career General Brennan has, I think, letting him k. Kind of just talking about his time. Thirty plus years in Special Operations, you know, from 3rd Group JSOC, 5th Group Commander, and then how you've seen kind of the maturation of SOF and its role in the army over that time, I think would be a really good, like, way to. Way to kick us off, sir.
- [01:47]
Lt. Gen. John W. Brennan, Jr.
Yeah, absolutely. So appreciate the intro. It was great letting you think I was in charge while we were working. This the toughest problem set. I think I. To this day, I still had to work, which was how to create an army, a new army in Syria without talking to and. Or being in Syria. Talking to a Syrian or being in Syria started off really hard, and it ended up finishing up in a very interesting way, but shows you the power of sof. And I think that really the unconventional warfare aspect of what SOF and SF means, which is why we were created. So we've kind of come full circle through, you know, 20 plus years of CT. But we. I think Syria is a great vignette of CT overlaid with unconventional warfare. Because ISIS was the occupying power. We overthrew them. It took us a little longer than we wanted, but at the end of the day, that is why SF was made, created by John F. Kennedy, going back to the Jedburghs. And we're kind of full circle coming back to that, competing with China and Russia, enabling partners to overthrow an occupying power, should that come to pass. So I think we're setting the seeds for what needs to happen across the globe. But it was great to come into the army right on the heels of Desert Storm, major conflict. But I watched everything transpire with defense cuts, et cetera. And SOF actually grew during that interregnum period, late 80s, early 90s, we actually grew. And then the, you know, in the 90s, the only people doing anything was, was SOF. SF in particular started off in 3rd Special Forces Group probably deployed about 270 days out of the year on the continent, Africa. When we weren't doing Africa, we were also getting pulled into things like Bosnia as well as Kuwait, because we had, you know, plans that we finally executed in 2003 and overthrew Saddam Hussein. But it was the closest thing to a shooting war that was going on, the leftover residual conflict with the Iraqis enforcing the no fly zones, et cetera, and working with indigenous folks actually in Iraq. So not a common, commonly known thing, that we had soft teams on the ground in both northern and southern Iraq well before into the 90s, before the war started, that we're working with indigenous groups to keep tabs on a. What Saddam and his ilk were doing and then set the conditions for an invasion if we needed to activate the then O Plan, which actually was hugely beneficial. You saw it play out in 2003. You had Kurds rolling up the parachutes of the 173rd when they jumped in up in Erbil for the price of a candy bar. You could get pulled out of the mud too. So intense Special Forces guys with their partners on the battlefield. But again, I think the CT fight has shown over time the need for the interoperability of SOF and conventional forces, the power of combinations. We can't do what we do globally without conventional support. We recruit, spot, assess, recruit and train SOF operators from the conventional force for a reason. And, you know, that plays out on the battlefield and it has for, you know, many decades on the CT front. We want to make sure we're still doing that in the event we have, you know, an O Plan activation somewhere on the planet. Don't lose, don't. The lessons we learned of 26 plus years of CT are still going on in Africa, by the way, and in the Middle east, but we don't want to forget them. Yeah, but it's been interesting ride.
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Justin (podcast co-host or interviewer)
Yeah, I really want to, I want to get to that, but I actually want to talk because I think that's a, that's a good segue because in the last couple of weeks there's been a lot of articles that have been written. Ned Marsh came out with a couple of pieces in Modern Warfare Institute. Duke Duclos responded. There's been like some back and forth. What's your take on the like that there's some people calling for like a wholesale personality change for special Forces and that they need to come back and be reset versus where you see, do you see the benefit being engagement, employment and more contact or how does that balance look? What does that balance look like for you?
- [06:13]
Lt. Gen. John W. Brennan, Jr.
Yeah, I think it's all about working with indigenous folks, whether they're existing military surrogates, et cetera, to do the work in their country. So we don't have to send 18 year old kids in tanks to someplace to do it. So. And the only people that can do that are Special Forces, sf, soft folks. And then we have, you know, obviously the high end national mission Force missions. But they recruit mostly out of soft, existing soft formations for a reason. But it's all about creative thinking, thinking outside the box, using new things, old things in new ways and new things in new ways to create effects wherever it's needed. And I think SF specializes in
- [07:02]
Justin (podcast co-host or interviewer)
different
- [07:03]
Lt. Gen. John W. Brennan, Jr.
parts of the world for a reason. So that you become experts and you have those relationships when you need them. Coming back here to Africom and the twilight of my career has been interesting because the first place I went was Tunisia and I met up with an old friend. We were friends as captains. He was, you know, in charge of their, their socom. And I've got examples of that in multiple countries. But those relationships matter, especially when you are in need and someone on the other end of that phone as a familiar voice, it really makes a huge difference.
- [07:38]
Justin (podcast co-host or interviewer)
When you talk to policymakers or decision makers, how do you encapsulate, like how do you bring that reality to them? Like hey, like I personally know this person and this is what he is telling me or this is what I'm getting from this person that I have this, you know, decades old relationship with, that I've stayed in contact with. How does that translate when you talk to like an NSC staffer or to someone that's in a policy or decision making role?
- [08:05]
Lt. Gen. John W. Brennan, Jr.
Yeah, it's, it's hugely important that way. You can frame an action that may look one way, but you know the person you've talked to them. You can, you can tell a staffer or a decision maker, hey, he's doing this to get to this goal and this is where we can help him. And if he goes across this line, he or she is probably not in line with our policy. But I think it's, it's happened some of the coups that have happened in Africa. Not every coup is a bloody one and not every coup is the reasoning behind it. Maybe because the soldiers haven't been getting paid. I've seen that happen going back to the 90s. I did actually an African lion flintlock type event. It was flintlock in Cote d' Ivoire and got home two weeks later. There was a couple and I knew the guy on the front page of the Washington Post who was. He was hitting someone and he was hitting, he was actually hitting a rioter who wanted to take advantage of the coup and he was actually stopping it. His name was Sergeant First Class Sonson and he hadn't gotten paid and his family hadn't had the money to feed themselves until we showed up. And they got what's called 1206 monies from the embassy. They got extra money, extra stipends because we train them hard, they need more calories, food, et cetera. And so I knew right away what he was doing and why he was doing it. He was actually trying to stop violence, not create it. So again, there's multiple different examples of that that I can point to when.
- [09:44]
Justin (podcast co-host or interviewer)
So when you do have those engagements, one of the things that we kind of see is like there's a huge focus on, know, Indo Pacific now there's become a huge focus on, you know, Southern Command and like focus there. And there's always been, Centcom, has always been the, the 100 pound gorilla. How do you talk about the importance of Africa and the role that it plays and like how you envision U.S. national security and national policy?
- [10:11]
Lt. Gen. John W. Brennan, Jr.
Sure. I mean you start by looking at a map. You can tell Africa's the biggest landmass and it's literally the center of the world. And to get somewhere you have to go over it or around it. And six of the biggest, most important, key global choke points are touch Africa. And you can see that play out in policies of other countries. Like China tries to invest in places straight to Gibraltar. They want to invest near the Suez, they want to invest near the Babel Mandeb. Their only naval base outside of mainland China is in Djibouti for a reason, because it's the gateway to the Babel Mandeb. So they invest heavily in South Africa. You gotta go around the Cape. If you want to get to the Indian Ocean from the Atlantic or go through the Suez, you pick it. But that's I think center to why. One of the reasons why Africa is so important, the other is the population. And the population growth projections are, you know, 30% of the world's population will be in Africa by 2050. So pretty daunting. And the growth rate is huge. So future markets, future labor force, future industry is all going to converge at some point in Africa along with a lot of critical minerals, natural resources, energy. The biggest gas field in the world is right off the coast of Mozambique in an area that's right near, on the coastline. It's a stronghold of isis Mozambique, the only place that they are really operational. And so getting access to that energy and not allowing VEO's, Russia and China to prevent us from accessing it is really important.
- [11:56]
Host 1 (possibly a senior military or defense analyst)
What are the trade offs from your perspective of the fact that you just get way fewer A1 stories in major American media about Africa versus you know, Endo, Paycom or, or Centcom. What is that? How is that like frustrating and maybe what is that like, you know, what, what liberties does that potentially allow you guys?
- [12:19]
Lt. Gen. John W. Brennan, Jr.
Yeah, it's, it's super frustrating when you see China and Russia spend billions on information operations and all the media outlets that they acquire influence for propaganda purposes. Really. And our story, it's a powerful story. It gets, it gets told, but it doesn't necessarily resonate in the West. We do get a lot of coverage in Europe, not as much as we do in the Western hemisphere. So that part is frustrating. And the things that we do Russia and China can't do. In Africa we have exercises like African lion. We bring in 43 different countries from four different continents. You know, Russia can do, they do, you know, BRICS exercise. They're lucky to get five countries to, to participate. And it's very scripted. They use African partners like training tools. Not. It's not a authentic, genuine partnership. Like we put the Africans in charge and then we support them, we mentor them. And then like we talked about earlier, Jordan, we bring in companies that have tech that may be of interest, low cost, very effective weapon systems that can be purchased without going through the laborious fmf, FMS process that I know that the department's doing a lot of great work to shorten the flash, to bang time on that and, and do direct commercial sales, etc. But you know, the, the import export laws and everything. It's very, very difficult to overcome when China just comes and drops off free stuff. It might break in six weeks, but it's free stuff.
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Justin (podcast co-host or interviewer)
When you, when you are dealing with like, so like you have the military aspect, the fms and you have the, the flintlocks and the eager lions or not. Sorry, eager lions and Jordan, but African lion. How do you from like the command sphere look at the, the dime problem set and weigh like where in the different regions you apply more. Hey, we need more economic or. We need more diplomatic or. And how does that interplay work with the sister agencies for AFRICOM standpoint?
- [14:34]
Lt. Gen. John W. Brennan, Jr.
Yeah, I think we're our convening power for things like conferences, exercises, not to mention persistent CT operations, et cetera, I think brings the interagency together and we do a lot with a very little. We're 0.1% of the department of War budget. So we rely on interagency partners, international partners, allies, et cetera, to convene fora that can have the most effects, everything from innovation to information operations. We do it by, with, through partners as much as we can so that we can have. Create those outsize effects with little assets.
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Justin (podcast co-host or interviewer)
Has there been you said that's. That's Super Interesting, the 0.1% of the Dow's budget. I didn't realize that it was that small. Something that kind of Africa brings to mind for me is like people talk about now, like, oh, we're going to have to abandon the golden hour, which is, you know, the one hour to get to medevac if somebody gets injured. But Africa's had to deal with that for a very long time. Do you think there are exportable lessons from the African theater that people should be learning as they start looking towards indopacom or towards like a less robustly equipped CENTCOM to draw lessons for how to stage the force, how to build the force, and how to operate in the theater.
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Lt. Gen. John W. Brennan, Jr.
Yeah, absolutely. So we do have the tyranny of distance like no other combatant command over land.
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Host 1 (possibly a senior military or defense analyst)
Yeah.
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Lt. Gen. John W. Brennan, Jr.
And the tyranny of access, spacing and overflight, which. It's like a Tetris game. It changes constantly. But I think the way we do counterterrorism operations, remotely advising, using tech, is something that's very exportable. We do not rely on the golden hour because we're not out in the trenches very often. And when we do, it's for a very bespoke reason. But 90% of our advising and assisting and enabling is from things like remote fires, from RPAs, et cetera, and then kind of at the battalion TOC level where we can bring in all the different war fighting functions, not just, you know, maneuver and fires, we can bring them all together in one place and have effects across multiple different subunits that are operating. And then we bring in, like we talked about industry to try to try new things. We're an experimentation, experimentation, theater, innovation, theater. We can bring in new things, try them out during exercises and then actually combat evaluate them in combat conditions in places like Somalia. So in very difficult combat conditions, we have EMI problems, all same issues. Anti A2AD systems are all over the place. Drones are all over the place. Our partners buy drones from anyone who will sell them or give them to them. So we routinely encounter, you know, high end Russian ADA systems as well as drones from all over the world.
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Justin (podcast co-host or interviewer)
So when you, when you speak. So I think there's two questions there and I'll get to the second one in a second. But the first one is like, so when you bring in the US industry, what are kind of the marching orders? What do you tell them? Like how are you discerning? Like hey, this is a real capability and this is like something that is a lot of snake oil and discerning. Do you let the partners do that or is that something that you're filtering prior to that getting down to the partner level?
- [18:16]
Lt. Gen. John W. Brennan, Jr.
Oh, we absolutely filter it. So and they're not all, like I said, they're not all US vendors either. So that's another, a whole different discussion. But if it's a venue in a partner nation, the partner nation has to allow them to come in too. So it's in their best interest to get things in tech that works as well as it's not just weapon systems. So we've had great discussions with transportation companies, with software companies, the new Silicon Valleys in Morocco. Until I got to Africama, I had no idea, had no idea that so many countries have space programs. Rwanda, I mean it's eye opening. Angola has a space program. I had no idea. And then energy companies. Anytime you want to invest in production industry, you got to have the energy to do it. You got to have the people, the people have to have the food, they have to have transportation to get to work. And so some investments from larger companies from the states have to bring in a whole ecosystem to get their, their company operating effectively on the continent.
- [19:33]
Justin (podcast co-host or interviewer)
The second part of that question I think goes to if you're seeing this other technology that's coming in, how, how is that affecting? Like, where are you seeing that? Like obviously in Somalia somewhat. Where are you seeing this kind of merging of first and second world tech, for lack of a better term? And what are the complications that you're seeing as you're like trying to run partnered operations and things with friendly nations that are also still receiving some of this equipment from say Russia or the prc?
- [20:00]
Host 1 (possibly a senior military or defense analyst)
Yeah, so have you like Angosat too? Is that, is that a big part of, you know, your whole comms strategy going forward?
- [20:10]
Lt. Gen. John W. Brennan, Jr.
We're trying to develop open architecture networks that can accept any form of data flows. So we have, you know, Libyan partners that have Chinese and Russian equipment. We have to develop a way to make the systems talk and then protect any American kit that they have as well. So that, that's a huge challenge. But we are, we are trying to enforce data governance. And you know, I say declare jihad against proprietary data streams because I've got American weapon systems, you know, IAMD systems that don't necessarily talk to one another. That's one example. But we have to have the open architecture that, you know, we have one pane of glass for everything from A2 AD systems to drone systems, networks, et cetera, so that we can see what everybody's seeing. We don't have to have a separate monitor. So that's been a definite challenge.
- [21:17]
Justin (podcast co-host or interviewer)
How open do you find the US based like defense tech companies to that, like to opening up or to being more plug and play and having kind of like a middleware that allows them to interface with all these other systems?
- [21:30]
Lt. Gen. John W. Brennan, Jr.
Yeah, I think if it's a program of record, some companies are more open to changing their business model and their product than others. If we start off in the development stage, I think that's the sweet spot. Get the engineers close to the operators so that they can iterate to greatness. Something I used to do with our CTO at JSOC when I was there. But it's get the thing in the operator's hands so that he can break it, he or she can break it and show you how to improve it rapidly. And that's, that's what we're all about here at africom. So again, it's, it's, it's. As we're testing things, I think that's the, the time to create the most advantageous inputs to the system that you can get it morphed into your form, form factor that you want. So we're, we're doing a lot of that with AI and software with the partner in mind. So we're trying to create ways that they can like our cop, our COP sip. When we go to things like African lion, it's distributed across all the partners so they can get it on an end user device. Something that we tried, you know, with back in the day with Atak. We're trying to supersize that for more than just your moving map tool and everything. It's, it's all your feeds, whether it's from UXS system, it's from a, you know, human spotter with a GoPro on, I don't care but. Or the cell phone or closed circuit camera itself is, is a collection device. And how do we get all those data streams into a place where we can make sense of it and display it?
- [23:14]
Justin (podcast co-host or interviewer)
That's it. That's actually really interesting because when you're looking at these like common operating pictures or these common intelligence pictures, what do you find is the biggest holdup? Is it, is it intelligence sharing? Is it getting the devices to talk? Is it bringing the other countries in and like having a common, like kind of flattening the comms across all of the allied nations? Like where do you find you spend the most of your time trying to help streamline and make these capabilities actually functional?
- [23:45]
Lt. Gen. John W. Brennan, Jr.
Yeah, I think the mechanics of making the data streams accessible is the easy part. It's the regulation. So depending on where the data stream's coming from and who it's going to dictates a whole lot of hurdles to overcome, even from a partner. So I've worked with partner nations that provide FMV and you know, I have to go talk to their chief of defense to get them to approve letting us pull that data stream in for an exercise and, or an operation. We're doing it a lot with A2AD systems, IMD systems in particular with partners. But the data, whoever owns the data stream owns the bureaucracy that goes with it. Sometimes it's, it's more than one way.
- [24:32]
Justin (podcast co-host or interviewer)
Do you find, do you find the US role to be more connecting other nations like neighboring nations, or do they do that kind of inherently and then it's harder for us or like how does that relationship play out and the US's role in those relationships?
- [24:48]
Lt. Gen. John W. Brennan, Jr.
Yeah, it's sort of an erector set. I think it depends on the partner. So some of our NATO allies, for lack of a better term, operate more seamlessly with other African partners. And sometimes we're bringing in things that they're sharing. Like we've got the MNJTF in Chad, so it's US French. And it was all the LCB countries, Cameroon, Niger, who dropped out. Nigeria Cameroon or in Benin. So if you have bilateral sharing agreements, sometimes it gets a little discombobulated and you have to come up with a whole new ecosystem to feed a thing like an mnjtf. But we, we do, I think tech wise we're the, definitely the, the probably lead convener. We provide the, the COP SIP tools when we go on exercises, etc.
- [25:45]
Justin (podcast co-host or interviewer)
When, when you look at like, you know, recent history, Niger, Burkina Faso, Mali, all kind of tilting towards Russia, do you, where do you see, where do you see risk and then where is there opportunity with some of those nations, like trying to find another champion or trying to align with, with Russia or with the prc? And like how does that change the way you view the map strategically?
- [26:14]
Lt. Gen. John W. Brennan, Jr.
Sure. General Anderson covered this very explicitly in his testimony. The black hole, the Sahel, that's where you know, we've got the most VEO growth between Al Qaeda affiliates, ISIS affiliates and the, I won't say the rescission, but the dwindling of Western support in that area and you know, Russia came in, they could not fill that gap. And so the veos are filling the gap. But some countries have gotten in there in their own way. We're trying to do what's best for the US which is prevent a terrorist attack on the homeland. Hopefully does not emanate from that black hole. But we are working with the Sahelian partners. We still have embassies there, we still have small teams that are working with partners. It's not what it used to be, but we can identify an issue before it becomes a problem for the homeland. That's the main goal for the Sahel and I think you'll see a natural turning away from Russia if they keep doing what they're doing, which kill a lot of civilians. Their brand of CTs is not nearly as precise as ours. If you look at, you know, recent operations in Nigeria, it's, it's markedly different and the outcomes are markedly different.
- [27:35]
Justin (podcast co-host or interviewer)
Do the VEOs distinguish between the, the Russian and the US kind of backsides? Do you think that there's a bright line or do they just see those as all kind of others and they all kind of are equal targets? You know, in your analysis of like how these veos look at it.
- [27:53]
Lt. Gen. John W. Brennan, Jr.
Yeah, I think you can see from their own propaganda they exploit the Russian heavy handedness to recruit new members and really agitate old grievances. Sivkaz is one of their biggest narratives when confronting Russia. They try to loop us in whether we, you know, we investigate every civcaz allegation to the nth order. But they're always levied against us because they know the EOS know it causes us trouble and we burn calories. But that's not to say we have much more technical expertise and tools, AI enabled tools that help us do our own investigations and prevent SIVCAs upstream. That's, you know, number one in our playbook. Never cause SIVCAs. And so the Russians don't necessarily care. But the veos are definitely much more attuned and fearful of us RCT because it's so precise and it's effective and ultimately we want to enable the partner. There's certain operations that only the US can do that we get permission from partners to do it in their country.
- [29:16]
Host 1 (possibly a senior military or defense analyst)
Justin brought up Russia. Could you talk a little bit about the like, recruitment pipeline to take you from Burkina FAS to Bakmut? Like, how do you, how do you. This, it's, it's sort of a surreal thing. I don't know, like, how do you process it? What are you guys thinking about it? What's there to. What's there to be done from an AFRICOM perspective?
- [29:40]
Lt. Gen. John W. Brennan, Jr.
A We try to highlight it when we see it. So elicit. It's human trafficking basically of Africans to go fight on the front lines in Ukraine as well as work in factories like Elubluja. So under false pretenses, the Russians recruit them for educational or job opportunities in Russia and then they get there, take their passport. Now you're on the front line. It kind of came to a head in Kenya when they recruited a famous football player. He ended up getting captured in Ukraine. So there's. Kenyans have come out publicly. You're not doing that here. We're trying to engender that in other locations, but it is a problem. Thousands of Africans are getting recruited under false pretenses and then either getting killed or captured on the battlefield in Ukraine. It's Putin's per Africa's Putin's purse. And it's, it's a manpower source that they're trying to exploit.
- [30:45]
Justin (podcast co-host or interviewer)
I think too also look, looking at the manpower thing, another thing that we've been seeing recently, and this is again just showing how connected I think Africa is centrally to all the conflicts that are going on. You know, you see stories about the, the Houthis starting to export some of their expertise, for lack of a better term. Have you seen that starting to come into any of the African veos? And like, have you seen like the, the idea of Houthi advisors and what that Looks like. And is that actually something that's starting to percolate in some of those areas?
- [31:16]
Lt. Gen. John W. Brennan, Jr.
Absolutely. So it's widely reported in the press, Al Shabaab working with the Houthis, they, they send trainees to Yemen, they send the Houthi sen. Weapons materiel to Somalia. So it's, it's not, it is a factor that over time, the fact that, and you know, Al Shabaab has a pretty robust budget, they have an innovation cell they use. They're trying to exploit drones and things against the federal government of Somalia and the Somali National Army. No surprise there. But we can't let that happen. They get true advanced conventional weapons from Yemen. Now you've got the Babel Mandeb and a crossfire. We don't want that to happen. So for the global economy and US national security interests, it's, it's in our interest to not let that, that relationship mature.
- [32:14]
Justin (podcast co-host or interviewer)
Well, and then building on that, I think too, there's, there's also, and you know, love to get your take of how this plays into it. Where you have, in Djibouti, you know, just right there in the same neighborhood as Somalia, you have the PRC building the naval base. Like, how did all three of those, like between the Houthis, the PRC naval base, and the, the Somali veos, how does that all. How does that threat triangle look to you? Like, what does that look like when you actually take a look at it?
- [32:45]
Lt. Gen. John W. Brennan, Jr.
Well, all are impediments to us doing our job, for sure.
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Justin (podcast co-host or interviewer)
Yeah.
- [32:51]
Lt. Gen. John W. Brennan, Jr.
We experience. It's more than tension sometimes with the Chinese. The EMI environment there is bad for a reason. They're there for a reason. It's not in the interest of the United States, I think. Is there a collusion between the Iranian threat network and the Chinese? Yes, I think it's more economic than anything. But that key critical choke point is really important for a whole host of reasons. And the threats that emanate from Somalia back to United States are there. We're trying to make sure it doesn't become a home game. We want to keep the away game successful. That way it doesn't turn into a home game. And I think, you know, the center of gravity of ISIS is Africa. That clearly shifted from our time in Iraq and Syria a decade plus combating isis. The talent pool is very shallow compared to what it was. Centcom's been very successful in Iraq and Syria, the Middle East. So the path of least resistance for a VEO is go where there's people, ungoverned spaces, assets and resources. And now you're seeing those flow from the cartels in our hemisphere, along with a lot of money and drug. Not just shipments through Africa, which has kind of been going on for decades, but the production on the continent for export into Europe and through our northern border from Canada as well as Australia.
- [34:36]
Justin (podcast co-host or interviewer)
What's interesting, too, because that's where the. Historically, that's kind of been what it has been. You know, you look at Al Qaeda kind of birthed in Afghanistan, post Afghanistan, they run to Africa, ungoverned spaces. That's where they're able to start, like, rebuilding the base. And then it's only after a while, they're able to matriculate out using both finance networks and terror networks. So when you look at that, like, when you see that, like ISIS near Mozambique or you see, you know, in the Sahel, the various veos, do you start to see it kind of like we used to look at Syria, where originally There were like 16 or 18 different groups, and then slowly they all got kind of taken over by the black flags and all kind of coalesced into one group. Do you. Is that. Is there a similar worry there, or are these all such disparate groups where you have religious fundamentals and you have kind of economic extremists that there isn't so much of a worry about some of these groups joining forces?
- [35:41]
Lt. Gen. John W. Brennan, Jr.
Yeah, I think, you know, they. They all stemmed from roots of Al Qaeda back in the day and going back to the 90s. I mean, that's where bin Laden got his start in Africa. He didn't go to straight away to Afghanistan, but the roots are still there. A lot of it was because of the. The resources and the money that, frankly, I mean, he had stashed in banks in Somalia going back to the 90s as well. So there's money to be made, and, you know, the drug money is just drastically increasing it. We see, you know, some of the Al Qaeda affiliates and the ISIS affiliates a lot in Africa. Mainly the ISIS affiliates kind of spun off from the Al Qaeda affiliates. You see that with Al Shabaab. The current caliph of ISIS global network used to be an Al Shabaab guy, and he became an ISIS Somali guy. Now he's, you know, he thinks he's in charge of the global caliphate, but that just shows. And then. And then there's tension because they're all fighting over the same turf. But in some places, you see a division of labor where the Al Qaeda affiliates tend to go after security forces, the ISIS affiliates go after the civilian Population attack wise. But you know it's, it's shifting sands I'd say. But the minute if a capital falls like almost happened in Iraq now you've got, for lack of a better term, the mujahideen bug light you get affiliates will start to adhere and they'll come to where they can control territory, resources and people trappings of a nation state. That's. Yeah, that's what the sum of all fears is. That happens in Africa.
- [37:33]
Justin (podcast co-host or interviewer)
I guess that's the interesting thing too because like when you look at Syria like there was always the Uzbeks and you know, fighters from other countries, Czechs or from Chechen. Sorry, geez. Confusing them with the new name for the Czech Republic in my mind. Yeah. Anyway, but yeah, you would. You saw all those fighters come into Syria. Have you seen a foreign inflow or is it still largely homegrown outside of like the remnants of terrorists of ISIS that ran?
- [38:06]
Lt. Gen. John W. Brennan, Jr.
Oh no, it's international same. I think it will become worse if you know a capital falls exponentially worse.
- [38:14]
Justin (podcast co-host or interviewer)
Yeah, yeah. And on your watch list what's the number one. Like this is the one that I think God forbid this would be the one that will fall and cause that
- [38:25]
Lt. Gen. John W. Brennan, Jr.
any of them are bad. The ones we are concerned about the most are in the Sahel because the fear is, you know, one falls and they're this self amalgamated made up alliance AES that that all of them will fall. Somalia I think is proven to be. Over the last year and a half we've upped our partners tempo on the ground. They've been the beneficiary of a lot of kinetic support from us based off the Secretary's policy decision to return to the previous, you know, target engagement authority, et cetera. And we've been using that to great effect. So isis, Somalia has lost a lot of territory up in Puntland. Similarly, Al Shabaab is not doing so well. They most of the gains that they made back in 2024 and early, early 2025 have been rolled back.
- [39:29]
Justin (podcast co-host or interviewer)
So do you think that's a product of overreach or is that a product of the increased capability, popular resistance like. Or is it a tiered effect of all of those kind of coming together?
- [39:41]
Lt. Gen. John W. Brennan, Jr.
I think it's a combination of all the above.
- [39:44]
Justin (podcast co-host or interviewer)
So yeah, that actually brings up kind of an interesting point and we've kind of touched on a little bit. But like when you're, when you're doing this for an internal defense and you're building partner capacity of a host nation there, how do you Interplay. What the host nation says they need versus what your assessment of them says they need. And how do you play those two kind of to, to get the best, most capable force that's going out to, to do these, you know, counter veo operations.
- [40:14]
Lt. Gen. John W. Brennan, Jr.
Right. I think it's very delicately.
- [40:18]
Justin (podcast co-host or interviewer)
Yeah.
- [40:19]
Lt. Gen. John W. Brennan, Jr.
Because everyone wants F35s and these are expensive and we don't make enough of them. The dip dib production being what it is, it is difficult. But we also employ other allies to help shape the environment and demonstrate to them what they need. And exercises are a great way to do that. So if you fail often at one particular aspect of an operation, you know you need work on it. So typically it's the other war fighting functions besides maneuver and fires that cause them the Most, most problems. C4ISR logistics in particular. Everyone wants to overlook logistics. You can't in Africa. It's just that the distances are so, so great. So you know, northern tip of Somalia down to the southern tip, that's a thousand plus miles. So you're talking Maine to Florida. That's a lot of territory and a lot of space. So when your partner runs out of food and water and it's, it's pretty rough gig or ammo, it's hard to get it to them. So does that answer your question?
- [41:39]
Justin (podcast co-host or interviewer)
No, it does. I think that's, that's always one that, you know, we found interesting because I think it's the same. You see it in Taiwan when we look at Taiwan. I saw it in Thailand when I was working with the, the Thai special forces. There's, there's a desire for, for technology. Yeah. And it doesn't always fit the situation. I actually think that that brings up a interesting discussion because you started, this is a while ago, you had started adding in an innovation block on sit reps where you asked for like hey, how are we doing innovation? And I think initially people viewed that as like what new tech? But then slowly over time it kind of morphed into how are you thinking about a current problem in a different way or approaching it in a different way and what works and what doesn't work and how are we spreading that across the force? Has that picked up or are you still seeing people fall into innovation is technology.
- [42:37]
Lt. Gen. John W. Brennan, Jr.
Yeah, I think it's a, it's a trap for sure. I think we do a lot more of using things in new and creative ways and, or develop a new process for a new thing that is impactful on the battlefield. So the denied area that was Syria was a great Battle lab because we had the world's most interesting problem. Couldn't step foot in the country. But we had to generate effects and a force to create those effects. So I think that spurred that in my mind when I was at fifth group and I think we got a lot of great effects. Part of it was using things like ultralights, they had been around for, I don't know, 30, 40 years before that and use them in ways that were beneficial to us to fly under radars that we knew the Syrians had, et cetera. So I think that you know, that that's necessity is the motherhood of invention. That's nowhere is it more true than in Africa because we, we don't have a lot of the resources that the other combatant commands have and we.
- [43:42]
Justin (podcast co-host or interviewer)
That's interesting too because you talked about the defense industrial base. It Is there a desire to start building out kind of a native supporting defense industrial base or is there like, I think of something like the, the Lucas where that is something that conceivably, you know, Nigeria could produce in, in relatively robust numbers and then that would be something that they could then export in that area to then you know, enhance the fires capability of neighboring countries. Especially in the counter BO fights. Do you see a desire and a movement towards that or is. Are there cultural blockages between that?
- [44:22]
Lt. Gen. John W. Brennan, Jr.
No, 100%. I think everybody's all in, particularly the African partners who want again, they want jobs, they want their own, they want their own dib so that they don't have to rely on us, which is a good thing. So the ultimate burden share, burden shift through technology. We started up the first drone center of excellence in Morocco. The first class graduated right around African lion. And so giving them or selling them things like 3D printers and showing them how to build their own drones so that you know, their hands off once they get that the ability to produce in the raw materials. And Africa is a great I think vignette for an alternate dib because you have many countries that have all the right material. They have the natural resources, they have the labor force and they want to co produce things with us. There's great examples. Some of these countries already have their own arms industries. South Africa is an example. I mean they build really good artillery. Namibia builds satellite radios. I mean it's pretty amazing the opportunities that are there. And then you have a dib that if they co produce American weapon systems and American materiel, it's closer to the fight in the Pacific than it is from the west coast of the United States. It's way closer.
- [45:48]
Justin (podcast co-host or interviewer)
Yeah, absolutely. I mean, and that's one of those things that when we start talking about distributed logistics, it starts to become a question of one where will we put it? And you've talked the issues of the tyranny of distance and the, the, the access base and overflight issues that come up with Africa, but those exist for indopacom as well. And I think you're right in kind of intonating that, like, hey, there's, There's a lab here where we can experiment with having kind of a dib in exile or whatever we want to call it, where it's forward and is producing at least some of those capabilities. Do you think not having access to, like, I'll make fun of Korilla, but, like, the ability for him just to yeet tea lambs at the Houthis or into Syria. Do you think not having that access in Africom has actually made you more inventive in trying to get after problems?
- [46:39]
Lt. Gen. John W. Brennan, Jr.
Yeah, absolutely. And we've, we've exploited the Cross Combatant Command Transition Authority as much as we can to try to get assets from other theaters. So we've been lent things like P8s for exercises and operations and, and vice versa. So we've, We've, we've given to the CENTCOM bank on many occasions,
- [47:01]
Justin (podcast co-host or interviewer)
do you find. I mean, probably prior to Ukraine, but like eucom, you being almost headquartered in the same general area. Yeah.
- [47:11]
Lt. Gen. John W. Brennan, Jr.
Same house on the other side of Stuttgart.
- [47:13]
Justin (podcast co-host or interviewer)
But does, does that, does that come with benefits or does that also eat up auction?
- [47:20]
Host 1 (possibly a senior military or defense analyst)
They think it's easier to just like, steal from the, you know, the guy down the block. It's like, ow.
- [47:25]
Justin (podcast co-host or interviewer)
Oh, you've got 0.1% now. You have 0.05%. Because we need that.
- [47:30]
Lt. Gen. John W. Brennan, Jr.
We just, we're. We're serial borrowers. But it is challenging not having your own components. Sock app's the only component we have opcon of, so we share all of our other service components with eucom. And it is, you know, there's times when our desires and needs conflict with UConn priorities. That's natural. But we are really good at sharing and borrowing when needed.
- [48:01]
Justin (podcast co-host or interviewer)
One of these days, guys, when we have stuff, we're going to share back, I promise
- [48:07]
Host 1 (possibly a senior military or defense analyst)
those, those Mozambique radios that everyone's going to be hounding for them. You'll have the inside.
- [48:16]
Justin (podcast co-host or interviewer)
So, so do you. I. When you, when you are those, like, in, in that horse training, how does that work out? Like, is it just please let me have it, or is it hey, if I do this, this is what I'm going to be able to get out of it. Because really, like you, like you said, you're, you're kind of enabling SOCAF through a lot of that, right? I would imagine.
- [48:36]
Lt. Gen. John W. Brennan, Jr.
Yeah, yeah. The CT fight, they're the action verbs on the, on the continent, along with NMF folks. But we. There is a process for. Doesn't have to go all the way to the Pentagon, just inform and then it's. If you work out your request for support, it's Combatant Command to Combat Command, J3 to J3 sometimes, you know, and then it gets elevated decom to DCOM or Combatant Commander to Combat Commander at times. It's. It's a process.
- [49:15]
Justin (podcast co-host or interviewer)
I. Yeah,
- [49:18]
Lt. Gen. John W. Brennan, Jr.
and SOCOM is very generous. I will just.
- [49:22]
Justin (podcast co-host or interviewer)
Well, that, I mean, that's, that's what I was going to say is like, by the fact that you really have the one assigned, you know, Subordinate command being africom.
- [49:30]
Lt. Gen. John W. Brennan, Jr.
Soccer.
- [49:31]
Justin (podcast co-host or interviewer)
Soccer, Sorry, soccer. Does that become like. Because now they're not competing like in centcom, you have sock scent, but you also have our scent and nav scent and all the other scents that are trying to get into the fight. And they're all three stars and, you know, lowly little socks in is a two star. Whereas here, like it's, it's basically direct two star to four star.
- [49:53]
Lt. Gen. John W. Brennan, Jr.
Right.
- [49:54]
Justin (podcast co-host or interviewer)
Like, it makes it a little more streamlined in that form of communication, I would imagine. Yeah.
- [50:00]
Lt. Gen. John W. Brennan, Jr.
And they're right down the hill. So that's helpful.
- [50:02]
Justin (podcast co-host or interviewer)
Yeah, that too, yeah. If you could have like, man, this is the, this is what one thing that I think AFRICOM needed over the next like two years. What, what would it be? Is it a, is it a unit? Is it an engagement? Is it, you know, piece of technology? What's the thing that you wish, like you could pull from big D O W and give to the theater?
- [50:28]
Lt. Gen. John W. Brennan, Jr.
There's so many. Again, I think we get what we need when we need it. It's always a matter of priorities at the department, across the Combatant commands, et cetera. I think we've made a lot of headway with AI and I think we could use more of it. Just the amount of data we have to deal with is. It's unbelievable because we have all the threat groups, plus Russia, China, even North Korea, pokes around in Africa. Everybody has interest on the continent and figuring out who's doing what to whom on a daily basis is consuming. So I know, you know, I think our analysts do an awesome job, but I think we need more AI tools for them and then I think better ways to shorten the fmf, FMS thing for partners on the continent. So we're trying to work ourselves out of a job every day. So the tools that we used to use, like the BPC monies and all that, it's, it's no longer with us. And so how do we compensate for that? So some partners are much better resourced than others. So it's getting access to places that are meaningful, where we see threats metastasizing, that we can't see the contours when they become a threat to the homeland because we're just not there and we're not collecting. We always need more airborne isr, so we're testing some things for the department and hopefully we get the ability to test more so we can provide feedback and make sure those things are what we need for the future fight. So I think we always need more isr, more intel so that we can be better informed when we do make a decision to do an operation, we're doing the right thing in the right place at the right time.
- [52:31]
Justin (podcast co-host or interviewer)
I mean, like, I think that actually goes to the difficulty in AFRICOM where like really you're an early sensor is how you see not a majority, but at least a prime that has a primary role, which is probably different than the way some of the other theaters are conceptualized, especially EUCOM and, and centcom. And I think that that's a tough, that's a tough role to be in because, you know, SR teams routinely are not treated super well. And then, yeah, you have kind of a early warning SR theater.
- [53:06]
Lt. Gen. John W. Brennan, Jr.
We do. We also identify opportunities. So there's so many opportunities for private sector investment, et cetera. And we work unit glove with the Economic Defense unit out of the department, newly created to help capitalize on those and provide indications, warnings, observables, that hey, this would be a good investment. And here's where our competitors are trying to outmaneuver us. Yeah, so that's been a huge change. It's opened a lot of doors for companies to get involved on the continent.
- [53:45]
Host 1 (possibly a senior military or defense analyst)
I'm going to close on AI. Sorry, but I feel like I have to. We talked a little bit about kind of data streams and bringing stuff together. Of course, there's been a lot written around AI and targeting and the Iran conflict over the past few months. I'm, I'm curious though, you know, just thinking about what like AI can and can't do specifically from a, like a command decision perspective. I mean, one of your first answers in this, in this interview was like the fact that you have known these people for 25 years, you know, is, is data that like Claude doesn't necessarily have. But I guess I'm, I'm curious from your perspective sitting in a combatant command, like what, what you are, you know, the slightly more kind of like sci fi, forward looking AI, you know, more like intelligence decision as opposed to just like putting data streams together type stuff you're excited about, maybe worried about and how you see, you know, intelligence on tap, potentially changing what your successors jobs might look like.
- [55:02]
Lt. Gen. John W. Brennan, Jr.
Yeah, I'm hugely excited about it. So just as a vignette, I mean we, we and our partners pull terabytes after terabytes of chem off the battlefield. How do we make sense of it? Find connections where it takes analysts weeks and hours to do it, things like that. Breaking codes to get into crypto wallets that terrorists are using, that drug cartels are using. I think that's huge offensive capability. And then it's just making sense of those data streams like you talked about. I got a sensor over here telling me this one over here telling me that what does it mean? What decision do I need to make? And I can't do that unless those data streams are multiplexed and then analyzed quickly. So I think that's, you know, integrated air and missile defense is a great example of that. And then investment. So where do I, I have limited resources, where does my boss place those resources on the continent to have the greatest effect? And that goes to, you know, same thing with private sector investment. So when we identified do we have a predictive tool that if you invested this much in this industry, in this location, what's it going to look like in five years? What's the profit margin? What's the effect on that nation's economy? So like some of the things that ExxonMobil's doing will double some of these economies in one year. So. And what are they getting out of it? Similarly, you know, we talked about identifying threatened foes on the battlefield, et cetera. I think that's something, reducing civilian casualties is really important as well. So I think there's so many uses, it's up to your, really your imagination, how you want to employ AI. But I think it's centered. Everything we're doing, we have the first time ever we have a CDAO chief data officer. We never had one of those. And we're getting a CTO in chief technology officer, those, those folks and I've got companies, you know, that want to sell us data all the time. And, you know, making sense of what application is right for us is something that is also difficult. But we're getting professionals, data scientists, data engineers involved, so we know we're not a paying for the same data twice. Or if ucom's paying for it, why should I pay for it? Let's just, you know, craft the contract accordingly, et cetera. Data as a service, I think that's gonna be more prevalent, not just with us, but with our allies and partners so that we can see things the same way and understand the same data in the same way.
- [58:00]
Host 1 (possibly a senior military or defense analyst)
So we're not quite at the point where you're like, asking Claude or ChatGPT how to defeat ISIS and just kind
- [58:06]
Justin (podcast co-host or interviewer)
of like, press play and go.
- [58:09]
Lt. Gen. John W. Brennan, Jr.
Yeah. Bring Justin back on active duty and give him a really sharp knife. No, just kidding.
- [58:16]
Justin (podcast co-host or interviewer)
Please, no.
- [58:19]
Lt. Gen. John W. Brennan, Jr.
Rock may see that.
- [58:20]
Justin (podcast co-host or interviewer)
My back. Yeah.
- [58:26]
Host 1 (possibly a senior military or defense analyst)
Justin, anything you want to close on so hard?
- [58:29]
Justin (podcast co-host or interviewer)
No, I think that. I mean, I think that was great. I. I really appreciate it. Like I said, you know, like the. The whole full disclosure. I. I've known John Brennan for 13 years now. He put me in a position when I was way too young and way too junior in rank to have a role in US national policy in the Middle east. And it really set the trajectory for my career going forward. So obviously nothing but respect. I really appreciate you coming on, sir.
- [59:06]
Lt. Gen. John W. Brennan, Jr.
Well, feelings mutual. You saved me one night when General Votel came for a visit.
- [59:11]
Justin (podcast co-host or interviewer)
Came.
- [59:12]
Lt. Gen. John W. Brennan, Jr.
Right. You got to put this on in the car on the way to the embassy. I don't know how you found my suit or picked out a tie that matched, but you somehow did like a doofus at a state dinner. But anyway. And you did phenomenal work as an E6. Well above your pay grade. So thanks for what you did for the country as well.
- [59:39]
Host 1 (possibly a senior military or defense analyst)
And what he's doing for global podcasting
- [59:42]
Lt. Gen. John W. Brennan, Jr.
and what you're doing.
- [59:44]
Justin (podcast co-host or interviewer)
Yeah, Global podcast. Yeah, we're going to make it huge.
- [59:49]
Lt. Gen. John W. Brennan, Jr.
All right. I like the topics, anything unconventional.
- [59:52]
Justin (podcast co-host or interviewer)
Thank you. Cool.
- [59:55]
Lt. Gen. John W. Brennan, Jr.
All right.
- [59:57]
Poet or creative summarizer
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