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Christiane Amanpour
This is a Global Player original podcast.
Jamie Rubin
President Trump's ratings are very low on very, very important issues, especially on the Iran war and especially on the state of the economy. The statement that he made just before going to China, that the plight of the American people, their economic pain, is not something he's thinking about at all.
Christiane Amanpour
It didn't look to me like the United States won anything at in terms of getting China to do something constructive for us or for the world.
Jamie Rubin
Guess who's the next visitor to Xi? That would be Vladimir Putin.
Christiane Amanpour
It was a bad week for America's friends.
Jamie Rubin
What is the point, if it happens, of going back to a hot wall to strike? What to do? What?
Christiane Amanpour
This is not cones. This is cowardice.
Jamie Rubin
Hello, everyone, and welcome to the latest episode of the X Files with me,
Christiane Amanpour
Christian Amanpour in London and Jamie Rubin in New York.
Jamie Rubin
This week, we want to talk a little bit more about the Trump Xi summit. What actually came out of Beijing now, it might seem a few days ago, but it's still extremely relevant because Trump went to try to get Xi to help him out of the fix in the Strait of Hormuz. We're also going to ask what about when Trump, if Trump does in fact get the Iran situation resolved, is he going to then turn to Cuba? Already some very interesting machinations happening by the US and administration inside Cuba. And also, oh, yeah, Greenland has popped its head up again as a morsel that the Trump administration is still considering devouring. So let's get started, Jamie. Trump obviously went to, you know, to. To. To China, as we said previously in the preview of it, really not holding all or even any of the cars. Xi really felt that because of the mess Trump is in on very many issues, the tariffs, the spike in prices, the, you know, inflation, the global economy, not being able to get out of the Iran war, not having been able to be the superpower who goes and fixes everything in three weeks. It's now dragged on for what, anyway, since February 28th. It's a lot longer than they expected. He didn't get Xi to, quote, unquote, help him unblock the Strait of Hormuz. How big a failure is that? Or should we not be surprised about that?
Christiane Amanpour
Look, this was an extraordinarily unusual summit. It was unusual for several reasons. The first, of course, is that the Trump administration in its first term had really seen China properly, in my view, as the adversary, the peer competitor, the country that we needed to work with our allies and around the world to contain, essentially to prevent them from trying to take over the region and to impose their will on the world. That's changed. And this administration this time around doesn't seem to see China that way, which is kind of a surprise to many people, and instead is seeing it transactionally. And that's where I think the biggest problem in this summit came, was when President Trump treated Taiwan as a transactional issue.
Jamie Rubin
Let's just step back a bit because we've, we've gone right into the meat and potatoes of all of this, and we need just to step back a little bit. So Taiwan is something that the Chinese have always been incredibly sensitive about and want the United States to not put their thumb on the scales. And we understand that. Actually, in one of the late night conversations that Xi had with Trump, apparently Xi spent a long time, according to the Chinese readout, talking to him about why it's not helpful to, to, to support Chinese independence, sorry, Taiwanese independence and all the rest of it. And Trump, who tends to like to listen and understand. The last person who talked to him came away then, as you say, questioning, saying that he had not approved yet the $14 billion ARM sale. But even more astonishingly, in my mind, I heard on the radio Trump had posted that Taiwan should not keep pushing for independence. So I thought that was, that was very, very different. No, I mean the United States doesn't oppose Taiwanese independence.
Christiane Amanpour
You've put your finger on one of the biggest issues in China. Scholars, China experts, the people who are into the real subtleties here, are going to be examining this for weeks to come. The way I remember the phrase is we say we do not support Taiwan's unilateral declaration of independence. We don't support that. That's sort of an easy thing to say because we do want the status quo to remain. We don't want to see this resolved anything but peacefully. A unilateral declaration of independ would put that at risk. But what Trump did, I think, is go further and actually imply in his language that he was opposed to it, that he was against it, and that presidents haven't said before. But I think to get back to the earlier point, Taiwan is an ally of the United States. We have laws that make it clear that we are supposed to support them with defense products and services, defense equipment, and in extremists, possibly help them in an attack. That's an ally. And in many ways, Trump took that ally, an important ally, a democracy, a thriving democracy in the region that both parties have supported and put a big question mark around it that has never really been there before about whether the Chinese get to decide what kind of defense articles and services we provide to Taiwan. Never been discussed before between presidents from China and the United States. So he, in his way that he has of throwing away the rule book and frankly, not listening to the experts because you don't want to give China the wrong impression. You don't want to give them. The ambiguity is partly what keeps everything stable and safe. We all worry about the possibility of a Chinese attack on Taiwan, but we don't want it to happen because they got a misimpression from President Trump about what we really think.
Jamie Rubin
Yeah. And the reason I think it's all important right now, why does it matter to, I think our listeners, our viewers, is what is the status between the two superpowers, the actual superpower of the United States and the ascending superpower, China? Xi clearly went out of his way to flatter Trump. He put on the full pomp and circumstance. Trump called him, you know, it was an honor to be his friend. He said all sorts of things that most American presidents don't say about a Chinese essentially authoritarian leader. You could call him a dictator, you could say whatever you want, but they generally don't go to that extent of verbal flattery. He didn't get a huge amount, I think some $17 billion worth of farm deals and the like. But what, you know, paradoxically, people might be saying is that this, while it didn't give so much on substance, this summit, if it did sell Taiwan down the water, down the river, that is bad substance. But otherwise, people are saying that this is actually a summit, that Xi really emphasized stability and knew that Trump came without all the cards that he might have come with had the Iran war worked, had other things worked, but Xi had already outplayed him on the tariff game, so was very prepared. But do you think that the net result of this is a new understanding between the United States and China, at least for this US Administration, that there is stability, maybe on China's terms?
Christiane Amanpour
Well, I. I think you're right. The Chinese chose to emphasize some new phrase. They love these phrases. I think it's called constructive strategic stability, whatever that means. If it means that we're both going to compete peacefully, that we're going to each pursue our national interests in the way we see fit, and we're going to avoid confrontation, of course that's a good thing. But remember, this is coming in the context of China being the biggest supporter of Vladimir Put, Putin's war in Ukraine, and we heard nothing about that at this summit. Not only didn't we hear about Iran getting any help from China on Iran, where people thought this might be a way to unlock the Strait of Hormuz puzzle, which is pretty, pretty locked. So what we're not seeing is a US Chinese relationship that can be constructive for the world's stability. Instead, what we're seeing is China feeling pretty cocky, pretty comfortable. Remember, they have all their own problems, their economic problems, and yet they came across as the. As the adult in a way, because of all the chaos that comes out of the Trump administration. It didn't look to me like the United States won anything at all in terms of getting China to do something constructive for us or for the world.
Jamie Rubin
I thought it was interesting again, that Xi apparently spent a lot of time trying to educate President Trump on the Greek Thucydides and his whole, you know, Sparta with Athens rising paradigm. I actually thought that was interesting because I think it was a warning to the US that we can manage our relationship as long as there's no crazy surprises and no from you guys. Anyway, China says to the US militarization of the Taiwan issue or anything. How did you read the lecture on Thucydides?
Christiane Amanpour
Well, this is China believing and using, you know, changes are happening the likes of which we haven't seen for centuries. And this is all about the rise of China. And China is rising. There's no question about it. China rose partly and to a large extent, because of the help the United States gave to it in the 90s in bringing it into the World Trade Organization on the theory that if they were brought in economically, they would begin to accept the democratic principles and become a stakeholder. The phrase was in the international system. That theory turned out to be wrong because instead we got a China run by essentially an emperor of a Chinese Communist Party who runs the country like Chinese Communist Party would run the country. And it has become even more so every. Every year of the intense political scrutiny and the prevention of any real freedom of speech, let alone freedom to differ with Xi Jinping. So the rising power is the Commun Party of China. Will it confront the United States? I mean, I don't know. I think the best news out of the summit is that they do talk to each other. They can talk to each other. They agreed to try to make sure they were in touch in a crisis, and that is important.
Jamie Rubin
And guess who's the next visitor to Xi? That would be Vladimir Putin. Xi, as literally practically Trump, was on his plane leaving, announced that Putin would be his next, next guest. So that is also doubling down on what you've just been talking about. And, and I think there is quite a lot of anxiety right now because Trump has again, you know, posted and said about Iran, you better make a deal, otherwise there'll be nothing left of you. So a lot of people are concerned that in the next short while, this may turn from an uneasy cold ceasefire to another hot war for however long that might take. But by the way, the latest polling in, in states, the Times Sienna poll, shows that President Trump's ratings are very low on very, very important issues. Basically, just 30% of Americans approve of his performance as president. That's a drop of 4% from the last time in January. But especially, especially on the Iran war and especially on the state of their pocketbooks, in other words, the economy as it affects individual Americans. So I think Trump knows that that is a big issue. And I just wonder what you think about the statement that he made just before going to China, that the plight of the American people, their economic pain is not something he's thinking about at all when he talks about what to do in Iran. And I think that's gone down pretty badly amongst the people. And it's quite a surprising thing for an American to say, cuz it's always about the economy's stupid, right? It's always about the pocketbook.
Christiane Amanpour
Let me try to oddly give Trump the benefit of the doubt here. Look, he is in a constant state of negotiation, deal making, that's the way he thinks. And since the war in Iran is now about suffering, pain economically, it's about who can outlast each other with the Strait of Hormuz closed, whose pain will be worse? Who will therefore blink first and want to get the strai open. My best guess is that his statement about that, which obviously was a political blunder, but my best guess is that that was intended to not let Iran think, even though they're going to think it anyway, that he is worried about opening the Strait of Hormuz, that he is worried about the effect the closure of the Strait has had on the American economy and the potential price increases across the board and the rise of inflation and all of that stuff. He's trying to signal to them, don't think you can get a better deal out of me because of that, because that's not my problem. That's my best hopeful reason for him saying it. Obviously his political advisors hated it because Trump has always been in this weird position of being a billionaire, helping the billionaires, being part of an elitist billionaire cabinet. And so to Say that you're not concerned about the average American. It's an unusual thing to say.
Jamie Rubin
It is, it's out of touch. Billionaire. I mean, they thought George H.W. bush was of touch when he didn't know the price of milk or bread in the supermarket. Remember all those years ago during a campaign tour when he was running for president. But I mean, this, this, this is pretty big because it's costing, I think somebody said, I mean, I may be wrong, but $22 billion per week or per day to run this war. And that's a whole lot of money as the world. I mean, look, we have a, a really major Ebola outbreak in, in the Congo that the WHO has said is an emergency, is not saying it's a pandemic, but is calling it, you know, an emergency and, you know, no money for USAID or any of those life saving things that the United States always used to do. But just quickly, what is the point, if it happens, of going back to a hot war, Whoops. To strike, what to do, what.
Christiane Amanpour
I'm going to go out on a limb here. Obviously, nobody knows whether the United States is going to go back to war other than the President and his advisors. I don't know the answer to this. I don't believe that's what they want. I don't believe they want to restart a war that has only caused more complications than they expected. So I believe this is all part of the bluff and threat and carrot and stick theory of who's got the cards and, and threatening this and threatening that in order to try to get progress at the negotiating table, about which we've learned very, very little. But before we leave this, I think I should say it was a bad week for America's friends. Not only Taiwan, but remember all of the Asian countries, Japan, South Korea, what are they thinking when they hear the President talk about Taiwan? Meanwhile, in Europe, our other best friends, he pulled troops out of Germany as out of spite and did it in an unusual where nobody was prepared for it. And it was clearly a signal that he can do this because he was angry with the President, the Chancellor of Germany. So America's allies had a bad week last week in Asia and Europe. And that's what the driving theme of this administration, unfortunately is, is to try to work closely with the likes of China and figure out how to have some workable relationship. But meanwhile, when President Trump thinks it's appropriate to do damage to alliances, which is what makes America strong, well, I
Jamie Rubin
have to tell you, I was absolutely shocked reading the FT this weekend, the Financial Times. Mertz, that is the Chancellor of Germany, would dissuade his own children from America. Move. That's unbelievable. In other words, his admiration for the United States is waning and that he would dissuade his own children from moving there as relations between Berlin, Berlin and Washington hit a new low. That's the FT leading graph and it's just staggering given how close Germany and the United States have been for.
Christiane Amanpour
And he was, Mertz was always one of those pro American German leaders.
Jamie Rubin
And he says it, I'm a big admirer of the United States, but my admiration is currently not growing. You know, so you remember a week
Christiane Amanpour
or so ago, elegantly stated.
Jamie Rubin
Yeah. This is, this is why Trump, Trump pulled the troops out because he told some school children that Iran was humiliating the superpower, the United States, in this war. And Trump got really, really, you know, angry about that. Having said that, and we've probably mentioned it, but it's worth mentioning again that the US Intelligence says that after now, you know, two months of war. March, April. Yeah, two and a half months of war, the Iranians still have a lot of missiles and launch capability, while the United States is running through its Ammun stocks at a tremendous, tremendous pace. So it's difficult to square all of these circles. But as always, we try. So we're going to take a break now. When we come back, we're going to switch to a slightly different topic, but interesting. Greenland has reared its ugly head again in terms of in Trump's eye, and so has Cuba. So the question is, if and when Trump has finished whatever he wants to do in Iran, will he then be turning to Greenland again and to Cuba? And what will that look like? That's when we come back.
Christiane Amanpour
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Martha Stewart
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Jamie Rubin
Right, everybody, we're back. We've been talking about Trump and Xi, two superpowers, but we're going to talk about Cuba because that's in the U.S. backyard. It's a perennial issue for the United States ever since Castro took over in the early 60s and they haven't figured out what to do with Cuba and they keep trying to figure something out. So if Trump couldn't get Xi to help him on Iran, he's obviously not going to get Xi to help him with Cuba. He's got his own ideas. I was actually quite stunned to read about and watch the visit of the CIA chief to Cuba. Unusual. And then the idea of indicting Raul Castro. So the CIA chief went and talked to the frontman. Castro's. Is it his grandson, something like that, who's become buddy. Buddy? Yeah, yeah, Raul's grandson who's become buddy buddy with the, you know, Witkoff and Jared, etc, and the President of, of Cuba basically said, yeah, yeah, yeah, we want to have discussions. We want to have a better relationship. And by the way, they announced this week that they are completely out of oil and fuel and it is disastrous on that island nation. But they said we don't want to change our political system or our economic system or our social system. So, so let's just take that quickly first before we go to the indictment of Raul Castro, because that's excessive pressure. So what is there to discuss between the United States and Cuba?
Christiane Amanpour
We need to remember that the most important advisor to Donald Trump is Marco Rubio. He's National Security Advisor and Secretary of State. He's the son of Cuban immigrants. He cares about Cuba as much as he can care about any single subject. Subject. And my Suspicion is that this is part of Marco Rubio accepting policies on China and Russia and other things that he wouldn't have preferred. And there have been a lot of articles written recently about that. How unusual it is for him to take these views on China and Russia because of Cuba. So what are they up to? Well, they do have one ask that is potentially doable and that fits with the Trump strategy and that is to remove the Chinese and the Russian listening stations that are located inside Cuba.
Jamie Rubin
You think he talked to Xi about that?
Christiane Amanpour
I doubt it because I don't think he wanted to give them the chance to conspire the Chinese and the Cubans. I think he wants the Cubans to feel pressure, which they feel because of this embargo. They are struggling mightily to survive without fuel oil. And I think that in Trump's mind, remember we keep talking about this world in which the United States rules the roost in the Western Hemisphere. Well, yeah, it would be great to get Chinese and Russian listening posts removed. The Russian one I believe was reinserted in the last decade. The Chinese one I think has been there all along. That would be a great thing to achieve if we could achieve it. And, and it seems not impossible for that regime to realize they're not getting any help from Russia and China.
Jamie Rubin
So they got their only oil that they had. I know it was only for 14 days, but they got it from Russia,
Christiane Amanpour
not from the U.S. they got one. But so maybe, just maybe, you know, look, I don't want to rule things out because it's a weird world right now when the United States is behaving in a way that nobody's ever seen before. Venezuela operation is obviously something on people's minds. But trying to take over Cuba and run the place strikes me as a massive error in thinking that the United States job it is to run Cuba or could figure out how to transform that society in any, you know, real time way. That's going to be a generations long project. And we certainly know this administration doesn't have that kind of staying power for an issue that would be really, really, really hard to do do.
Jamie Rubin
Talking about upping the stakes, suggesting an indictment against Raul Castro, the brother of Fidel who took over as president of Cuba when Fidel retired or whatever. And he is no longer the president but his, I guess hand picked guy is, and his grandson is apparently fronting the negotiations with the United States. So you know a bit about the case, Jamie? Right, because it was when you were spokesman for Madeleine Albright, when she was ambassador or secretary of state, ambassador to
Christiane Amanpour
the U.N. i mean, it is remarkable the things that come back. What is it now, 26, 30 years later? Thirty years ago, I was the spokesman for Madeleine Albright and two planes delivering humanitarian supplies, clearly not military planes, were, you know, part of this group called Brothers to the Rescue. And we know that they didn't have any weapons. They weren't posing any threat. They had once the same group dropped leaflets over Cuba. So in this case, what happened was two of the pilots said they were flying towards Cuba and they were shot down and murdered in cold blood. And there's no question about it, I was able, with Madeleine Albright, to release the actual locations of where the planes were and then the actual orders from the ground control to shoot the planes down. And it became a sort of a funny thing in a weird way, because the Cuban pilots used this phrase, cojones, which people know what that means, and said, we shot their cojones, I think they said. And so Madeleine Albright came up with this incredible sound bite which summarized the whole issue. She said, this is not cone. This is cowardice. And she said that because these were MIG fighters shooting at unarmed, you know, small Cessna planes which, you know, had no chance. It was like a shooting duck. It was like shooting something unarmed in the back. And that's why she called it cowardice. And it became a rallying point and it galvanized the Cuban American community. I should say that Madeleine, you know, may she rest in peace, was a hero to the Cuban Americans for stating this truth, that they shot down innocent people and they shot them in the back, essentially. And that. That wasn't any act of bravery. That was an act of cowardice. And by saying it and using that term, it became very popular. And she. We went to the, you know, a rally. I saw. I never saw anything like this. 50,000 Cuban Americans in the Orange bowl cheering for her back in 1996. And that Locke American policy against the Castro regime. Clearly, they were shot down in an innocent group. People were shot down in international airspace. So it shouldn't be that hard to prove what you're going to do about it after you've indicted them. I don't know.
Jamie Rubin
Yeah, but here's the thing. First, Raul was not president. Maybe he was head of the armed forces, and that's why he's. He's mentioned in the, in the indictment. But, but secondly, I think people watching from the outside think, okay, this is similar to what happened to Maduro. Didn't the US Indict him before he was extracted? And I think those who wish to draw parallels are beginning to start drawing parallels to all of this. I mean, it's clearly an uptick in the pressure and it wouldn't have. Is it a US Indictment or an international indictment?
Christiane Amanpour
No, it's a US Southern, I think some Florida prosecutor's indictment. But Christiane, just to get to the point you're making, I mean, imagine the imagery of the United States flying into Cuba with Delta Force or fancy Special Forces to carry out somebody in his 90s who allegedly did something 30 years ago who's obviously an old, old man. I don't know whether that's a very good image. So I think this is for the United States to do such a thing. I think you're right that they wanted this to be part of the pressure campaign and they want to remove the Castro family's control from the government. But the idea of plucking out a 90 year old man out of the heart of Cuba strikes me as not what our military was, was trained and armed and ought to be doing.
Jamie Rubin
I mean, just to be played devil's advocate. Clearly the Nazi hunters did pluck very, very elderly people out of their horrendous hiding dens to have them face justice. So this is not unprecedented and there'll be many, many people who do cheer it. The question is, what does actually happen thereafter? Because it's not all, you know, honey and roses in Venezuela. In fact, you know, a lot is going the US way, but a lot isn't going the Venezuelans way. And almost none of any significance have moved back to Venezuela, you know, given the fact that so many were, you know, fled because of, of Chavismo and, you know, Chavez and, and Maduro and now they're both gone and people aren't yet rushing back. So I do think it's, it's, it's really interesting. And clearly when, when Iran is done, in whichever fashion the US decides or Trump decides, Cuba is not just will be on the agenda. It really is right now. I mean, the head of the CIA going to Cuba, to me is a big deal.
Christiane Amanpour
I mean, it's almost unprecedented.
Jamie Rubin
It is. I'm sure it's unprecedented. Yeah.
Christiane Amanpour
I mean, think about it. The CIA was responsible for trying to kill Fidel Castro in the cigarette.
Jamie Rubin
I mean, it's Bay of Pigs, the cigars, the endless, endless stuff.
Christiane Amanpour
Pretty wild.
Jamie Rubin
Just let's move quickly. We've got about a minute left of this segment and not a huge amount to say, except that there is new reporting that these negotiations which have been ongoing between the United States, Greenland and Denmark are, in fact, at a very critical point, according to Greenlanders who are quoted by the New York Times saying that actually the US Is pushing for a huge amount of control and sovereignty. And Trump hasn't, you know, let go of the dream. Maybe not a full scale invasion and occupation, but they want, you know, in perpetuity, control over a lot of things there, including who gets to strike deals with Greenland and Denmark over Greenland's affairs. This. Okay, has been reported. Nobody's really confirmed it. And these Greenlanders are, you know, anonymous. But, but, you know, when certain New York Times reporters report things, they're generally, you know, you lead to.
Christiane Amanpour
Worthy of some conclusion.
Jamie Rubin
Yeah. And worthy of discussion.
Christiane Amanpour
Let me, let me discuss. Greenland was the red line that may have been the beginning of the end of a relationship of trust and confidence between the United States and Europe. It's what was too much to bear for France, for Germany, for the Danes, for the rest of the European countries. I do not believe the Europeans will give Greenland to the United States in any real way. And unless this negotiation can find a diplomatic solution that gives the appearance of it, we're in for real trouble because the Europeans do not accept this idea. And they are prepared to be strong and tough on it. And frankly, I can understand why.
Jamie Rubin
Yep, things are still a little bit, as they say, ass backwards between the transatlantic allies. You know, Jamie, a lot of people think Cuba, Greenland are distractions away from the main objective, Iran or whatever else it might be, but I don't think so. I think they're really. Certainly Cuba is something serious for the Trump administration.
Christiane Amanpour
Well, right. As I said, Marco Rubio cares about Cuba. He's the most powerful official. I think he has plans for Cuba. I think he's waiting for the right time to do it. Sending the CIA director as part of a policy that I believe is going forward independent of what happens in Iran.
Jamie Rubin
Okay, well, look, we are going to take a break now and come back with our recommendations.
Martha Stewart
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Jamie Rubin
Okay, we're back with our recommendations. Jamie, you go first.
Christiane Amanpour
Listeners and viewers know that I tend to try to find in the recommendations normally something to distract myself from the chaos and the difficulties of looking at our world and remind myself that this isn't the first time in history that there's been hysteria about certain things. So the famous hysteria that took place back in the, in the, I think it's the 1500s is the tulip Mania. In Holland there is a famous book by Alexander Dumas, a terrific, you know, the man who wrote the Three Musketeers. It's called the Black Tulip. This is an old copy called the Black Tulip. It's a great, great book, a great old fashioned romance and an old fashioned story about good and evil. And, and as you can imagine in that kind of story the evil does not win out. But you really see the hysteria that went around the subject of tulips. And I think the obvious analogy during some period of our, you know, recently was, was the dot com boom. And now the AI boom is, is, is it just grows and grow and there seems to be no end to it. Tulip mania was that for the Dutch way back when. And it's a great.
Jamie Rubin
And we still get Dutch juleps all over the world, including right here in the UK and they are beautiful. So my recommendation, I'm always trying to find, you know, sensible centers, literally the sensible center in politics. I hate the extremes.
Christiane Amanpour
That's where I always wanted to shine away.
Jamie Rubin
Yeah, well, guess what? It might not seem sensible because maybe it was radical when he first did it, but Barney Frank, the Democratic senator or congressman from Massachusetts, was the first to come out publicly gay. He came out as gay and publicly. And you know, he wasn't outed or anything. He did it. And he is now at the end of his life, towards the end of his life. He's in hospice care. And they did a very, very good interview with him recently at the Times. And, and he talks about how you achieve social change, which can seem radical, I. E. You Know, the equality of the sexes, you know, gay rights and all the rest of it, even gay marriage eventually. But you don't do the most difficult. First, you don't stick to the extreme of your position. First, you try to bring people along by, you know, trying to develop policies that, that everybody on all sides of the aisle can actually agree with because everybody has a gay family member or knows a gay friend or, or, or, you know, and that's how, you know, it started in the United States to bring gay rights. And then gradually, gradually, by the time they got most of the country on board, then they went for gay marriage and other such things. But I just thought that it, it was such a, interesting meditation on how you achieve change on all levels, particularly in these cultural have right now, or how you achieve, you know, political consensus and social consensus. And that's not by tacking to the extremes, whether extreme right or extreme left. And you have to bring the majority of people along with you, even if it's gradual. So I just found that really, really, really interesting.
Christiane Amanpour
I'm glad you brought that up because I want to bring it back to another recommendation that I made for the same reasons to shows you how much we think a lot. Like, do you remember the day the Iceland stood still?
Jamie Rubin
Yeah, yeah.
Christiane Amanpour
Women in Iceland.
Jamie Rubin
Yeah.
Christiane Amanpour
And the big issue in the movie was between the lefties.
Jamie Rubin
We call it a strike.
Christiane Amanpour
Call it a strike. And the others who called it said, no, we can't agree to that. We're not workers rights people. We're just women who want equal rights. Let's call it a day off.
Jamie Rubin
Yes. And that's how they brought everybody together.
Christiane Amanpour
That's how they ended up getting equal rights for women, by making compromises. And so it's so relevant to the issue that you just said. I felt compelled to remind people of that.
Jamie Rubin
He's a brave man, Barney Frank. Okay, everybody, that is it for this episode of the X Files. Don't forget to listen to us. Listen to the podcast on Global Player. And you can always watch us, of course, on YouTube. It's growing in leaps and bounds, our YouTube presence, so, so subscribe. Christiana Monpour presents the X files on the YouTube channel. So you can do that. And of course, later this week on Thursday, you can hear our Q A episode where we love to answer your questions as best we can. And don't forget that that's what's coming up later this week. So thank you all and bye bye
Christiane Amanpour
Jamie from London and goodbye from New York. This has been a Global Player original
Martha Stewart
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Podcast: Christiane Amanpour Presents: The Ex Files
Hosts: Christiane Amanpour (London), Jamie Rubin (New York)
Release Date: May 15, 2026
This wide-ranging episode unpacks the latest twists in U.S. foreign policy under President Trump, focusing on his dealings with China (especially the Xi summit), the intractable war with Iran, renewed U.S. maneuvering around Cuba, and revived talk of American ambitions in Greenland. Drawing on insider diplomatic experience and first-hand knowledge, Christiane Amanpour and Jamie Rubin explore whether there is a coherent Trump doctrine—or just a chaotic impulse to confrontation. In classic Ex Files style, the discussion weaves candor, policy depth, and acerbic wit.
Transactional Approach to China
“This administration this time around doesn't seem to see China [as an adversary] ... and instead is seeing it transactionally.” (Amanpour, [02:34])
Taiwan Policy Turmoil
Trump’s ambiguous language on Taiwanese independence troubles the usual U.S. stance of “strategic ambiguity.”
Jamie Rubin highlights that, according to Chinese sources, Trump went so far as to question the sale of arms and discouraged Taiwan’s push for independence—a break from precedent:
“Trump ... posted that Taiwan should not keep pushing for independence. ... The United States doesn't oppose Taiwanese independence.” (Rubin, [03:23])
Amanpour warns that treating Taiwan as a bargaining chip could destabilize Asia and sow uncertainty among allies:
“Trump took that ally ... and put a big question mark around it that has never really been there before ... The ambiguity is partly what keeps everything stable and safe.” (Amanpour, [04:31])
Xi's Strategy and a Lopsided Summit
China emphasizes “constructive strategic stability,” but Amanpour argues Beijing gained more, appearing as the “adult in the room”:
“China feeling pretty cocky, pretty comfortable... the United States won nothing at all in terms of getting China to do something constructive.” (Amanpour, [08:03])
Rubin observes Xi’s efforts to “flatter” Trump with pomp while getting little in return, except perhaps U.S. concessions on Taiwan:
“Xi clearly went out of his way to flatter Trump... Trump called him ... ‘an honor to be his friend’.” (Rubin, [06:34])
China, Russia, and the Thucydides Trap
“I think it was a warning to the US that we can manage our relationship as long as there's no crazy surprises and no ... militarization of the Taiwan issue.” (Rubin, [09:25])
Russia’s Role
War Fatigue and Poll Slumps
Public support for Trump wanes as the protracted Iran conflict hits American wallets; only 30% approve of Trump’s performance, down 4 points since January.
“President Trump's ratings are very low ... especially on the Iran war and ... the state of their pocketbooks.” (Rubin, [11:19])
Trump’s infamous comment before the China trip, dismissing Americans’ economic pain regarding Iran, is critiqued as politically tone-deaf:
“The plight of the American people, their economic pain, is not something he's thinking about at all” (Rubin paraphrasing Trump, [11:19])
Amanpour gives Trump the “benefit of the doubt,” suggesting he’s trying to bluff Iran into concessions:
“He's trying to signal to them, don't think you can get a better deal out of me because of that, because that's not my problem.” (Amanpour, [13:03])
Rubin compares the tone-deafness to historic presidential gaffes:
“They thought George H.W. Bush was out of touch when he didn't know the price of milk or bread.” (Rubin, [14:26])
Alliance Fallout
U.S. allies, especially in Asia (Taiwan, Japan, South Korea) and Europe (notably Germany), are left rattled by Trump’s unpredictable and sometimes punitive stances:
“Not only Taiwan ... all of the Asian countries, Japan, South Korea... Meanwhile, in Europe ... he pulled troops out of Germany as out of spite …” (Amanpour, [15:23])
Germany’s chancellor Mertz is so disillusioned he’d now discourage his children from moving to the United States—“a staggering” sign of frayed transatlantic ties. (Rubin, [17:01])
CIA Director’s Visit and Indictment of Raul Castro
“The CIA chief went and talked to the frontman ... Raul's grandson who's become buddy buddy ... the President of Cuba basically said ... we want to have discussions … [but] we don't want to change our political system.” (Rubin, [20:51])
Marco Rubio’s Influence
Amanpour identifies National Security Advisor and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, himself a Cuban-American, as the key architect of Trump’s Cuba policy:
“The most important advisor to Donald Trump is Marco Rubio. He's National Security Advisor and Secretary of State. He's the son of Cuban immigrants. He cares about Cuba as much as he can care about any single subject.” (Amanpour, [22:17])
The U.S. demand: remove Russian and Chinese intelligence listening posts from Cuba.
“That would be a great thing to achieve if we could achieve it...” (Amanpour, [23:10])
Humanitarian Crisis
Indictment of Raul Castro
Anecdotes from Rubin’s time as State Department spokesman during the Brothers to the Rescue shootdown (1996) illustrate why U.S. policy toward the Castro clan remains hardline:
“Two planes ... were shot down and murdered in cold blood ... Madeleine Albright … said, ‘This is not cojones. This is cowardice.’” (Rubin, [25:31])
Amanpour and Rubin debate the logic, morality, and optics of potentially extracting an elderly Raul Castro—paralleling the U.S. approach to Venezuela’s Maduro.
“The idea of plucking out a 90-year-old man out of the heart of Cuba strikes me as not what our military was ... trained and armed and ought to be doing.” (Amanpour, [28:39])
New reporting suggests the U.S. is pressing Greenland and Denmark for expanded rights and “control and sovereignty,” reviving Trump’s earlier interest in “buying” Greenland.
“Trump hasn't let go of the dream. Maybe not a full-scale invasion ... but they want ... control over a lot of things there, including who gets to strike deals with Greenland and Denmark over Greenland's affairs.” (Rubin, [30:58])
Amanpour sees this as a “red line” that could irreparably damage U.S.-Europe relations:
“Greenland was the red line that may have been the beginning of the end of a relationship of trust ... I do not believe the Europeans will give Greenland to the United States in any real way.” (Amanpour, [32:01])
Both hosts agree: issues like Greenland and Cuba are not mere “distractions” but evidence of deeply held priorities in Trump’s foreign policy.
On U.S. Policy Instability:
“Forget about a new world order – right now, there's no world order.” (Show description)
Sets the existential tone echoed throughout.
On Trump’s Transactional Diplomacy:
“Trump took that ally ... and put a big question mark around it that has never really been there before.” (Amanpour, [04:31])
Biting Humor on U.S.-German Tensions:
“Mertz ... would dissuade his own children from America. Move. That's unbelievable.” (Rubin, [17:01])
“Not Cojones. Cowardice.”—Foreign Policy Soundbite
“Madeleine Albright ... said, ‘This is not cojones. This is cowardice.’” (Rubin, [25:31])
On U.S. Military Adventurism:
“The idea of plucking out a 90-year-old man out of the heart of Cuba strikes me as not what our military was ... trained and armed and ought to be doing.” (Amanpour, [28:39])
Xi’s Use of Thucydides Trap as a Warning:
“Xi apparently spent a lot of time trying to educate President Trump on the Greek Thucydides ... Sparta with Athens rising paradigm. ... a warning to the US ... avoid crazy surprises.” (Rubin, [09:25])
Amanpour:
The Black Tulip by Alexander Dumas—an allegory for economic bubbles and social hysteria:
“A great old fashioned romance ... you really see the hysteria that went around the subject of tulips. ... The obvious analogy ... was, the dot com boom. And now the AI boom.” ([35:00])
Rubin:
Barney Frank’s interview at the Times—an example of achieving social change through “the sensible center” and incremental consensus:
“You have to bring the majority of people along with you, even if it's gradual ... a meditation on how you achieve change on all levels, particularly in these cultural [battles] right now.” ([36:41])
Amanpour (on women’s rights):
The story of “The Day the Iceland Stood Still”—using compromise to build consensus for change ([38:43]).
This episode is essential listening for anyone trying to make sense of the current global chaos. Amanpour and Rubin’s blend of hard-won experience, real-time analysis, and searing soundbites lifts the foreign policy debate out of the weeds and into the world where it matters: what keeps leaders and citizens awake at night.
For a more detailed primer on any of these topics, reference the specific timestamps above.