Podcast Summary: "Iranian Regime Change, Press Freedom & Jimmy Lai"
Christiane Amanpour Presents: The Ex Files
Host(s): Christiane Amanpour & Jamie Rubin
Date: February 10, 2026
Episode Overview
In this episode of The Ex Files, renowned journalist Christiane Amanpour and her ex-husband, former US State Department official Jamie Rubin, delve into the tangled state of global affairs—with a special focus on the fragile Iranian regime, the West’s inconsistent commitment to human rights, rising tensions across the world, and the acute threats facing press freedom. Their discussion, blending sharp analysis with candid personal banter, explores how historical patterns and present-day geopolitical shifts are feeding into today’s crises, using recent events in Iran, Israel, Hong Kong, and the U.S. as focal points.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
1. The Iranian Regime’s Weakness and Brutality
[01:39 – 10:27]
- Backdrop: Iran recently experienced its most severe crackdown in decades, following protests in December-January sparked by inflation and economic collapse. The protests quickly escalated into calls for regime change.
- Regime's Response: "There are, you know, there could be 20,000 dead and injured even more. And we understand now from reporting inside Iran that there's at least 40 to 50,000 arrests..." (Amanpour, [02:56])
- Western Policy Critique: Amanpour criticizes Western governments—Democrat and Republican alike—for consistently prioritizing nuclear concerns and regional security over human rights in Iran.
- “For 47 years... it's always only been about nukes, about missiles, about foreign mercenaries in the region, and never about the human rights of the Iranian people.” (Amanpour, [00:07])
- Trump Administration's Mixed Signals: The hosts examine Trump’s inconsistent stance, noting he encouraged Iranians to rise up but provided no tangible support.
- “On one day, they're calling for the end of the regime... and then help, sorry to say, was not on the way.” (Rubin, [03:42])
- Current Landscape: The regime is internationally weaker than ever, lacking regional support, but still maintains the "willingness to slaughter its own people." (Rubin, [05:56])
2. International Reactions & Prospects for Change
[10:27 – 16:56]
- Israel’s Calculations: Netanyahu’s visit to the US coincides with these tensions, but Israel is uncharacteristically reluctant to support direct military action due to potential Iranian retaliation.
- “For the first time in my memory, the Israeli government has been reluctant to support...military power being used against Iran.” (Rubin, [10:27])
- Potential for a Deal: Jamie pitches a possible "Trumpian deal"—Iran temporarily halting uranium enrichment in exchange for sanctions relief, allowing Trump to claim a win without risk of broader conflict.
- “It's a very Trumpian deal... Iran could…for the next, and let's pick a number, three years…not conduct enrichment...” (Rubin, [12:36])
- Iranian Opposition & Diaspora: Amanpour highlights increased activity abroad (e.g., Reza Pahlavi gaining traction), raising questions about the future of opposition leadership.
3. Geopolitical Uncertainty – (The New 'No World Order')
[16:56 – 21:24]
- Shift Away from US-led Order: Christiane observes that U.S. unpredictability under Trump is pushing allies—including Japan, India, and European countries—to bolster their own defenses, sometimes seeking alternatives to American support.
- “Europe is united by a common foe. Who’s the foe? The United States of America.” (Amanpour, [16:56])
- Global Adaptation: With security guarantees in question, “middle powers” are stepping up, anticipating a world with less reliable US leadership.
- “That geopolitical change is generated by...serious doubts about the United States world leadership...” (Rubin, [18:42])
4. Press Freedom Under Threat: Hong Kong, China, and the United States
[21:24 – 32:21]
- Jimmy Lai Case: The hosts detail the sentencing of Jimmy Lai, a symbol of press freedom in Hong Kong, to 20 years under China’s draconian national security law.
- “He’s already spent, I think, five years. He’s 78 going on 80. This is complete madness…” (Amanpour, [23:56])
- Erosion of Free Media in the US: Amanpour draws parallels with attacks on press freedom in the United States, including mass layoffs at The Washington Post and direct pressure on journalists.
- "If that goes down the drain, we are in deep, deep trouble." (Amanpour, [29:08])
- Comparisons with China: Rubin and Amanpour agree on the danger of equating American press struggles with China’s outright repression, but worry that the US risks ‘eating itself from within’.
- “To even compare that to the ruthlessness every day that went on during COVID...is an hysterical exaggeration. And yet people make it.” (Rubin, [28:04])
5. Memorable Quotes & Moments
Regime’s Priorities
- “It’s always only been about nukes, about missiles, about foreign mercenaries in the region, and never about the human rights of the Iranian people.”
—Amanpour ([00:07])
On Western Incoherence & Trump
- “On one day, they're calling for the end of the regime...and then help, sorry to say, was not on the way.”
—Rubin ([03:42])
Israel’s Reluctance
- “For the first time in my memory, the Israeli government has been reluctant to support the idea of military power being used against Iran.”
—Rubin ([10:27])
Media & Democracy
- “If [The Washington Post] goes down the drain, we are in deep, deep trouble.”
—Amanpour ([29:08]) - “Thomas Jefferson said that if he had to choose between democratic government and a free press…he would choose a free press because he said democratic government can't work without a free press…”
—Rubin ([30:49]) - “The free press in the United States has not died, but it is suffering serious assault.”
—Rubin ([31:11])
On China’s ‘One Country, Two Systems’
- “If the Taiwanese look over at Hong Kong, it’s not two systems, it’s one system.”
—Rubin ([24:33])
6. Cultural and Political Recommendations
[33:01 – 39:35]
- Amanpour: Recommends reading recent releases from the Epstein files, emphasizing their profound political impact in the UK and calling attention to ongoing scandals.
- Rubin: Recommends Rick Atkinson’s historical trilogy on the American Revolution, highlighting the importance of remembering America’s foundational struggle against monarchy.
- "It's worth remembering what America was fighting for. They were fighting to get rid of a king..." ([37:35])
Important Timestamps
- Iran crackdown summary & US response: [02:56] – [08:02]
- Trump’s “help” to Iranian protesters discussion: [03:42] – [05:56]
- Israel’s stance & potential “Trumpian deal”: [10:27] – [12:36]
- Shift in world order, Japan/EU/etc. self-reliance: [16:56] – [18:42]
- Press freedom/Jimmy Lai/Hong Kong: [23:56] – [27:41]
- US press layoffs, The Washington Post, Don Lemon: [29:08] – [32:23]
- Recommendations (Epstein files & Atkinson book): [33:01] – [39:35]
Tone & Style
The discussion alternates between searing honesty, political candor, and conversational banter—especially when the hosts riff on their personal history, the Persian carpet in Jamie’s kitchen, and the realities of divorce as a metaphor for geopolitical splits. They finish each other’s sentences and trade barbs, bringing levity to otherwise daunting topics.
Conclusion
Amanpour and Rubin argue that the world faces unprecedented instability—what they dub the absence of any world order. The episode leaves listeners with a profound sense of urgency about defending human rights, upholding press freedom, and the need for clear, values-driven leadership, particularly as old alliances fracture and global politics grows ever more unpredictable.
Noteworthy Takeaway:
“If [The Washington Post] goes down the drain, we are in deep, deep trouble.”
—Christiane Amanpour ([29:08])