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This is a global production.
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B
The last 10 years at least, Venezuela's been imploding economically. And institutions, their hospitals are not in any fit state. They haven't recovered since the January abduction of Maduro.
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C
It brings back the famous phrase, you break it, you own it. Venezuela sits as the place where Trump had his big success. And now what we're seeing is the horror.
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B
I remember couple of months ago, Volodymyr Zelensky saying to me, we will not get America's attention for any, you know, peace deals until the Iran war is over. And now Putin is saying the same.
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C
Jamie, Vladimir Putin doesn't want to admit that he can't win.
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B
He acknowledged a certain shortage of fuel. Do you think that shows Putin is pretty worried? Hello, everyone. It is Christiane here with the X
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C
Files in London and Jamie Rubin in New York.
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B
And today we're gonna ask two big questions and of course have our recommendations. First, we're gonna pivot a little bit for the first bit to Latin America because a new far right president has been elected in Colombia. Very Trump, like, very Maga, like. And we'll get into that. We'll talk about whether, you know, Latin America, is it turning Trumpian? And then we will come back to Ukraine, a little bit of Iran. Is Putin panicking a bit because of Ukraine's death? Deep, deep strikes inside Russia, particularly against their oil depots, which clearly, you know, finances their war. So let's get started, Jamie, let's start first with the idea of Venezuela because for the last week, everybody has been glued to their cell phones and any platforms they can to see these really heartbreaking pictures and videos coming out of Venezuela. The earthquake, the double earthquake has actually revealed this country to be incapable of dealing with their own crisis. And I don't know what you think, but it is a vassal state of the United States since they took away the leader, imposed their own leader. And Trump has said, we're running the place. So what is the US Doing and should it be doing anymore?
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C
Right Good question. The Venezuela operation, I think, was an important moment in the Trump administration. It gave the president the feeling that he had at his disposal a military that could be extremely effective, could get something done very quickly and achieve its objectives with very, in his mind, low cost and at a short time. And that is probably what led him to the mistake in Iran in thinking that there were some similarities. And we've learned to our regret, that there are two very different countries and two very different problems. So Venezuela he's been working closely with, I mean, to the surprise of many, many of the same people that were working under the previous president Maduro, who's been taken prisoner, are working with the Trump administration. Oil executives going in and out, everything's supposed to be fine. And now these earthquakes hit. And I think it brings back the famous phrase, you break it, you own it. You know, the United States intervened in Venezuela and said that it was going to work closely with it, said it was going to thrive and revive, and the oil industry was going to thrive and revive. And now we see the disaster of the earthquake. And I have to say that we are doing some things. I don't know all the details, but we're not making it a massive effort. We're not putting the full weight and shoulder of the United States behind this recovery or search and rescue or rebuilding phase, which when it comes to that, we're just doing what I would call the minimum that you United States does, funding some of the international organizations at a certain level. And that's it. Really. You don't see the shift that you might have seen. And that would be a way to demonstrate goodwill after this military operation and would be a way to show that the United States is a friend and comes in time of need. And there are things the United States can do. And we know that when it puts its mind to it in the humanitarian field. So I'm sorry that we're not doing more. And I feel that it's a sort of a kind of a microcosm of this short attention span approach of the administration. Venezuela sits as the place where Trump had his big success, and now what we're seeing is the horror.
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B
Yeah. So I had former Secretary of State John Kerry on the program in the aftermath of this for other reasons, but it happened to be in the aftermath. So I asked him, what should the US Do? And he said, well, we should, and we can do the heavy lifting. I mean, we have these massive, you know, huge planes, right, the galaxies and the big ones that carry all the equipment that's needed. I've seen that happen in different parts of the world. It can happen. And he said it's kind of a. Well, it is a moral responsibility. You know, people have used the word protectorate to, you know, to sort of sum up the US Role in Venezuela. And as you referred to Colin Powell, if you break it, you own it. So, I mean, it should. The United States should be doing more, right?
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C
Absolutely. I mean, you see these pictures, you hear the stories. The government is obviously failing in its most basic responsibilities of organizing the place. And now the politicians are fighting over who's better or who's worse at this, dealing with the disaster. But there's no question that there are things. The United States military, the United States humanitarian organizations, let's remember they destroyed Elon Musk and the President took out the Agency for International Development, which had a certain capability for disaster moments. Now, they still have an office that does that and they're sending some money. But it's not the same as having on the ground people who've worked the situation. We could, if the President put his mind to it. We know when the President wants to do something and puts his mind to it, you know, things will happen and he hasn't done that. And I think that's a shame.
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B
You know, for last 10 years at least, Venezuela's been imploding economically and institutions and everything financially. I mean, just the whole thing was. Was really bad. And even now, their hospitals are not in any fit state. They haven't recovered since the January abduction of Maduro and the installation of Delsey Rodriguez as president. They're still rolling blackouts. There's still a whole load of things that are going wrong on an infrastructure level. But as you said, there are many American and oil companies coming. And there was a hope that over this period of this year, actually there was, you know, evidence that the economy was beginning to show some. Some ability to take. Lift off again or at least to start. And now this has made it take many, many steps back. So I think it's worth remembering that Venezuela was very, very, very poor and very broken even, despite it being such a massive wealthy country in terms of natural resources and its oil and other. This is, I think, a test. So let's put it in context, Jamie, of the wider Latin American picture. The fact that it's South America to Trump's North America. And there's always been a relationship, sometimes, you know, really cohesive and sometimes not between the US and, and Latin America. Just now, over the weekend, a few days ago, there's A brand new far right president of Colombia and he replaced the more far left president of Colombia. The name of this new president is Abelardo de la Espria. He goes by the nickname El Tigre and he builds himself as a Maga type, as a Trumpian type. And I'll go into a little bit more about him in the moment, but that has completely changed the politics of Colombia. El Salvador is the same. There's quite a lot. Argentina has a very right wing president. And I just wonder, is this a trend or do each of these countries, because you know, Lula in Brazil is left wing, Claudia Sheinbaum in Mexico is left wing. So there are very big left wing governments there as well.
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C
Well, right. And I think that for me, let me start by saying for those of you who may be listening, who are true experts on Latin America, I don't claim to be one and I want to speak very honestly about that, but I have some observations, and one of my observations is that since I've been involved in politics since you and I were in college, Latin America has been a source of battle between the right and the left because of the structure of the countries there, the oligarchies that were created, the way in which the evolution of Latin America took place place. It's always been a big struggle between the landowners and the workers to a large degree. And that's caused a right left split that has been remarkably consistent. So I recall going back to the 80s, you were either on the right or you were on the left and there was nothing in between. There was a brief moment in the 90s when most of the countries had gone democratic and right and left didn't seem as important because they were finally democracies. And now we're seeing what happens when you become democracies. Then you vote and the votes are showing this deep seated struggle between those on the right and those on the left. And it goes back and forth. And it went back and forth in Brazil. It's gone back and forth in Colombia now once or two or three times. And that's the difficulty. I was very pleased to see the president say, the new president say that he wants to be a president for all the people of Colombia. That's the critical question is when you win a closely contested election, do you try to govern just for your 51% or do you really govern for all the people? And that's going to be the test.
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B
I have not heard him say he's going to be. Maybe he did it a pro forma, going to be A president for all. But in the, in the lead up, as one profile says, you know, he, he campaigned with the brash right wing populism that is spreading across Latin America. And he said things like I'm going to disembowel or whatever my, my opponents. He's already come down. Journalists apparently launched at least 100 or somewhere around that, dozens of lawsuits against journalists who tried to investigate who he is. He's a multimillionaire former criminal defense lawyer. He's never held any elective office. So much like Trump, his first elective office was at the very top. So president he has, unlike Trump who had the Republican Party who is refashioned into his own MAGA party, this guy's not backed by any, any of the major political parties and he's one who does actually and has been demonizing his, his opponents and you know, people are quite nervous about does he become sort of like a Bukele in El Salvador who's a similar type, very right wing, very populist. And all of these types like Trump basically got elected not only on, you know, traditional populism, but on playing to people's fears of immigration, of violence, of drug lords, of all those other things, certainly in Latin America. So there's a big debate about what he's going to actually do. And Trump said he won big, you know, the, the night of the election. But as we've just said, it was a razor, razor thin majority. And Jamie, I don't know whether you've read about this, but there's quite a lot of angst amongst members of the Colombian diaspora, let's say in the United States, who believe that the U.S. administration, you know, in a very unusual way, campaigned heavily in terms of Republican Congress people being there and all the rest of it for this one candidate. And apparently one of these more left wing dissidents and activists was, I think he's been detained based on a letter by Secretary of State Marco Rubio who told ICE and the others that certain people are contrary to the foreign policy objectives of the United States. So it's all very different and interesting. I mean really a thumb on the scale for the election of this guy.
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C
Well, you're absolutely right. I've never seen an American government use the power of government. So politically you look all over the world and that's what this administration does. America used to at least go through the motions of saying we were neutral until an election happened. We didn't intervene in obvious ways the way they're doing now. We didn't do things like you've just described. Throughout Europe, the President and his team have been choosing and promoting and supporting those on the right of the political spectrum. And I think that's one of the actual signatures of the Trump administration is to use the power of the presidency politically in a way that we've never done before. So this is one example of that. How big it is, I don't know whether it made a difference. I don't know. I don't think you can ever really know what ended up deciding an election like this that's so close. But clearly President Trump thrives on the victory of right wingers. He tried to get his, quote, friend Bolsonaro pardoned and freed from prison in Brazil, and Brazil stuck to their guns because the Latin Americans really do believe in their own sovereignty. And that's where the big foreign policy, exciting kind of question is going to come now, because it's possible that this new president will choose to work with the United States in joint operations against Colombian drug lords.
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B
Yeah.
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C
President Trump has said that he wants to use the military for that purpose. He's done so in ways that aren't very controversial with the boats and all that. But if he now has a president who offers up his country as a kind of testing ground for full scale US Use of the military against drug lords, we're in for some interesting times because that's never really happened before. There's been cooperation, there's been sharing intelligence, sometimes some individuals back and forth, but never a full scale partnership like an alliance of some kind. And if that's what he's suggesting, this new president, that's going to be pretty dramatic and could cause, let's face it, the drug lords have shown an ability to shut countries down when they don't like the direction things are going. That's what's happened in Mexico on many occasions. And we may be in for some, some real fireworks and not in a good way.
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B
Yeah. So again, his name is De la Espriella and El Tigre is how he likes to go. But to your point, he has threatened, you know, mass military operations against any armed groups. Also big, big sort of mega prisons like they've done in El Salvador. The Secot prison in El Salvador, for instance, is a model for him, apparently for El Tigre in Colombia. Now, he says that he respects the Constitution, but his opponents worry that some of the things like I've just said that he's proposing are very unconstitutional. And he's already talked about, you know, decrees and emergency presidential powers. What does that sound like a little bit like executive orders? You know, in the United States he's threatened to withdraw this guy in Colombia from regional human rights organizations. So I think we do have to keep an eye on. However, it must be said that part of this election result across Latin America is because of the unbelievable rise of organized crime and the drug lords and this and that. And it said that at least in Colombia, apparently about half the municipalities there have been an armed group presence there, significant armed group presence. And that's very, very troubling. And sadly the whole period when I guess I can't remember who was in office, but when President Santos of Colombia took on the hard work of trying to bring peace between the government and the left wing military militants called the farc, you know, it didn't fully work. And this is now the sort of legacy of the FARC or FARC II or all these drug lords and organized crime. So I think it's very, very difficult. The, the jury is definitely out on, on Colombia while next door Venezuela's in a mess and Colombia houses millions of Venezuelan, desperate Venezuelans who have had to flee back then and probably now as well. Worth saying that the democracies that we talk about in Latin America emerged out of often US based military dictatorships in the, you know, in the Cold War era. So I think that's also an interesting point. So let us move on to talk about Ukraine and Russia. And Putin's just had a big interview with state television. He said some interesting things and what maybe Ukraine Russia learns from iran.usa.
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B
Jamie, let's move on to talk about quickly the US Iran shenanigans over the weekend. It didn't look good at all. This so called fragile ceasefire, the fragile mou. The fragile initial conversations between the United States and Iran appeared to be, you know, teetering on the brink as both sides went after each other militarily. Each side blaming the other for, for, for whatever. But nonetheless, it appears the Strait of Hormuz still is the main sticking point for the moment. Now the latest is that they've decided to try to call a halt to the halt, a halt to this, another ceasefire in the midst of a ceasefire to try to continue these negotiations. So we'll just park that there because it does affect Russia, Ukraine. I remember a couple of months ago, Vlad Volodymyr Zelensky saying to me, we will not get America's attention for any, you know, peace deals until the Iran war is over. And now Putin is saying the same. Jamie, he's just had a interview with state television, which means he says what he wants to state television. They don't really get a look in, they just sort of give him a platform. But he said he expects U.S. negotiators to come to Moscow once Washington has reached an agreement with Iran over the Middle East. After all this active phase, as he put it, is over, we'll see the arrival of these representatives of the U.S. administration with whom we've already met in Moscow repeatedly. We're ready to continue negotiations and continue and discuss all the details. So what do you think? I think it comes after Trump basically said at the G7 that, that Russia should make a deal with Ukraine.
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C
Well, right. First of all, I think you're absolutely right to make a connection between the Iran situation and Ukraine, because what we've seen in the last few days is how difficult this is going to be to sustain a ceasefire, to sustain the opening of the Strait of Hormuz. The Iranian government clearly is going to exercise every potential capability to insist on its powers there. They gained this power through the war. That was our big mistake and they want to maintain it. And so there will be flare ups, There will be attempts by them to ensure that they have in their minds sufficient control. And that's going to be uncertain and probably make it that much harder to ever resolve the longer term issues that are going to continue to come up. And if, if that is going to be the deciding factor of whether the United States plays a big role in the war, I think the war will continue because I don't see this administration doing the things that it needs to do or would do if it were serious about trying to bring this war to a close. I think Trump many times utters what he really thinks, and that is that it's not his problem. He sort of made it his problem by saying he could solve it in 24 hours during the campaign. And that obviously was not, not doable. And he's now seen the source of the problem is not that Ukraine doesn't have any cards, as he often said, but rather that Vladimir Putin doesn't want to admit that he can't win. And again, I, I don't think it's about winning and losing. It's just about not winning and not losing. And if, if someone can finally get through to the president of Russia that Russia can't win, it can't take over Ukraine, it can't occupy the country and remove its leadership, it can't swallow it up, and that by trying to do so, they're only making their lives worse ever and ever. And that's what's been going on. So people are a little more optimistic now because Ukraine has shown some new capabilities that we can talk about.
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B
Yeah, well, we'll talk about that. But, and those new capabilities, obviously, is what's leading Trump to change his tone a little bit, because you remember that horrendous takedown of Volodymyr Zelenskyy a year ago in the White House when he said, you have no cards, you know, you're going to lose your whole country. You have no cards. Now, this week, he said, and let me read it, he said that they're doing pretty well having, you know, the Ukrainians are now doing pretty well having, before saying that, said that they have zero cards. And now because of their really stepped up deep strikes into Russia on their oil infrastructure, targeting the very source of funding for this war, it's really creating a problem for Putin and also theoretically doing the same in Crimea and potentially trying to cut off Crimea, I. E. Russia's supply line into Ukraine. So let me just tell you what Putin says to the state television about this whole, this whole thing. He says he acknowledged a certain short shortage of fuel after Ukraine's retaliation strikes on their energy infrastructure. He says, as for strikes against critical infrastructure in general and energy infrastructure in particular, of course, these attacks on our infrastructure facilities create problems. That's obvious. He said, right now we're observing a certain shortage, but it's not critical. So he's saying now our priority is how to improve air defenses, protect fuel supplies, particularly, as I said, in, you know, the territory they've annexed, which is Crimea and Siberia, if we care, has limited drivers and anybody to 50 liters per day per vehicle of gasoline. So I think that's actually interesting. And Zelensky has come out and saying, we're going to keep doing this, we're going to keep attacking their oil infrastructure. So it has created quite a shift, and I'm interested that Putin now said, and I think we mentioned it before, he actually is kind of pissed off that the administration hasn't Dedicated, a constant, all the time negotiating team to deal with the Russia, Ukraine thing. And he obviously wants them there.
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C
Vladimir Putin knows that he'll never have a supporter of him better in the White House than Donald Trump for whatever reason. And people spent their lives trying to figure out why. It doesn't really matter why they have a relationship. They talk to each other, they respect each other. And President Trump doesn't see Putin the same way that that everyone in Ukraine and most of the world does. That's just a fact. Russia likes to feel that the United States is paying attention to it. Its feeling of being a superpower is part of the reason this whole war got started where Russia believed that it needed to take back something that it felt it had lost. So, yes, that is the Soviet Union. Yes, Vladimir Putin would like to see a lot of attention paid to him and a lot of attention paid to Russia by the President of the United States. Yes, absolutely. I do think your example of Siberia is really dramatic because let's face it, Russia is a huge oil exporting country that has huge oil resources. The fact that they're doing limitations like that is really, is revealing. And I read an interesting article in one of the papers that I read about how there's these new words being used to try to describe the war without calling it a war and describe the realities in Russia without saying why they're caused. And so I think it's starting to sink in more and more that this war is going nowhere. And Ukraine really has made some dramatic steps in taking its drone fleet to a new level and in Crimea, making it impossible for it to be a vacation spot. And people were turning around and leaving in large numbers, which is a pretty bad sign, apparently. The big bridge had only cars going one direction out of Crimea. So the war pain is starting to come home to the average Russian in a new way, perhaps. And that is the beginning, one hopes, of a recognition on the part of the elites that they have to come up with some solution because they can't. And that's all we need them to conclude. Not that they've lost and we don't have to rub their nose in it at this stage. We just want them to realize they can't win.
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B
Right. But do you think the Secretary of Defense, Pete Hegseth, who likes to call himself the Secretary of War, who was just at a Defense Minister's meeting before the NATO summit later in July, he basically again announced that they're going to be pulling back more troops, you know, again, sort of telling the allies of Threatening to withdraw troops. He said there'd be a six month review of U. S Troop presence in Europe and warned that, you know, again, Europe's largest richest, blah, blah, blah, seem to still want a free ride. So my question is, when Putin looks to be feeling uncomfortable, up comes the administration of the United States of America in this case, Hegseth, kind of giving comfort and succor to the enemy. Do you read it like that?
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C
It's painful to watch the dynamics of this administration's defense department. It's painful on many levels. I think there's a really big, I would say a scandal developing over the firing of many respected generals that are starting to take hold in the Senate armed services committee, the House Armed services committee, amongst the generals, amongst the military community because of the leadership of Pete Hegseth. I mean, now is not the time to give Vladimir Putin the words that he wants. He wants to feel NATO is breaking apart. He wants NATO to be broken apart. The unity of NATO in supporting Ukraine during the Biden administration and the unity of the Europeans in supporting Ukraine during the Trump administration. Since Trump has pulled back from support, I can't say it's a full NATO support is, is exactly what he hopes to break and hopes to damage. And that makes his day when he sees that fortunately for us, the Europeans have been very strong, all of them, not every single one, but in remarkable ways. Germany, France, the United Kingdom, Poland, East European countries, they know the war in Ukraine is about them, Finland, Sweden joining NATO, I mean, all of those things. So it doesn't work. And the unity of the Europeans, despite these comments by Pete Hegseth and others, I think is the reality. But yeah, it's unfortunate that these things are said. I think what's more important is for the administration to figure out its strategy. And a lot of this is because they can't figure out how much effort to put into China, how much effort to put into the Middle east, how much effort to put into Europe. And so they keep shifting gears and some folks inside the Pentagon, you know, are constantly trying to, you know, rebalance the force and allow things to be said that give false comfort, I think to the Russians.
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B
Just quickly, in the one minute we have left on, you know, we want to get to our recommendations. Do you think Putin is a guy who panics? I was actually really quite stunned when I saw him. I come up with, we discussed this before, but basically trying to get the Belarussian president Lukashenko to open a new front. I escape, need, you know, a northern Ukrainian front to bring in Troops from, from, from, from there. They did allow that the very beginning on the February 22nd invasion day of 2022. But he's sort of retreated. Lukashenko, do you think that shows Putin is pretty worried?
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C
I mean, it's not a sign of, of confidence, that's for sure. And Zelensky has called him out on it and called out Belarus for or assisting in some of these attacks. And frankly, I don't expect Belarus to join the fight. Nobody seems to want to join the fight. A lot of the people they have to get to fight are dragged kicking and screaming into this war or they
- [31:53]
B
come for testing weapons and bodily strength for North Korea.
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C
Right. Because I think everyone realizes, not everyone, but I think most people, including the Russian military, realize that the way things are going to, there's no way the Russians are going to be able to invade, capture and control the country of Ukraine with such a determined Ukrainian adversary who's resourceful and has shown incredible skill in using modern technology to thwart the Russian army. And in fact, that is one of an odd source of comfort to me in that Russia's capabilities against Ukraine have been shown to be so limited. That makes me feel that European support, European unity, European spending on defense is going to be sufficient to maintain peace in Europe.
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B
Just one thing, though. Despite all, you know, Ukraine's successes, they really are under a terrible, terrible outmatched ballistic missile barrage from Russia. You know, Ukraine doesn't have those ballistic missiles to do what, what Russia is doing to it. So it's not like it's at easy going for Ukraine. And in my opinion, the way they continue to fight, continue to show their military ingenuity and continue to push back is really doubly remarkable given they're so outgunned by Russia. But still, they have a lot of ingenuity and a bit of asymmetry and, and the will to protect their country and never surrender. I think it's pretty amazing. So let us move on to talk about our recommendations. Time for our recommendations. Jamie, what are you recommending this week?
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C
Well, we're heading towards July 4th, and you know, as you know, it better
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B
not be the same as mine because mine's.
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C
No, it's. Not. It's not. I, I'm sure it's not. I'm a reader of books, a reader of American history. I'm not a historian. I like, like to read those history books and learn from them and hopefully gain some wisdom from them. The best one has been around a little bit. Her name is Jill Lepore and she's the writer for the New Yorker and wrote a book called we the People. And it's kind of a story about the true evolution of the United States as a democracy. And in our time where our democratic values are being challenged, let's face it, we know it every day, we talk about it. It, it's a struggle for many of us. It's very painful for many of us on both sides of the aisle, Republicans, Democrats. I think her book is a great read for the July 4 season.
- [34:45]
B
Mine is somewhat aligned with that, but it is the, it's been out for a while, but I highly recommend it. It's the six part documentary series by the great American historical documentarian Ken Burns, who's just really taken on just about every aspect of American life and history that he possibly can in his work. And this is called the American Revolution. 12 hours. Really, really good. Hugely critically acclaimed in the United States. It was released on PBS and you can still get it. And now it's on, I believe Amazon prime and I think in the UK it is on iPlayer. BBC iPlayer. But essentially it's about how our 13 colonies fought their eight year war for independence, built the new nation, the United States of America. And it's really details the military struggle and, and all the bits that, that come with that incredible, you know, war of independence. And it's important for us to know and be reacquainted with because it was quite something and the ideals that it put forth and I speak as an English person, you know, King George III lost the plot, essentially lost the colonies. It's really important to remember exactly what America stood for and for so many decades and a couple of centuries stood for in terms of the ideals it, it sent out to the rest of the world. And those are really at a, at a, at a time when new polls show America has never been more mistrusted American institutions. So I think it's good to reacquaint oneself with the promise of what once was. So that is the American Revolution. 12 part. Sorry, 12 hours, six part documentary series. That's it for this episode of the X Files. Jamie, we're going to log out now. Thank you for listening and watching. Remember, you can always listen for free on Global Player. You can always watch us on our YouTube channel. You subscribe by searching Christiana Monpour presents the X Files. Jamie and I will be back on Thursday with our Q and A because that's when we like to hear from you. So bye bye for now.
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C
Goodbye from New York. This has been a global production.
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A
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