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Jamie Rubin
This is a global production.
Christiane Amanpour
President Trump called the Iranian regime scum, called them sick. But as he's, he's done that before. And then he says, oh, they're strong, they're good negotiators. They're, you know, some of them are nice people and they just don't want any deal with the United States. They say this is a betrayal. They say that we're just going to show them once and for all. And even the person who negotiating with the Americans, Mohammad Barre Ghalibaf, he put out a statement today saying the era and the age of bullying Iran is over. So what should we make of this escalation?
Jamie Rubin
Christiane, you'll be very pleased to know I'm down to two cigarettes a day.
Christiane Amanpour
Oh, my. But that's not including vapes.
Jamie Rubin
I didn't say that I've cured my nicotine habit. I merely pointed out that I'm down to two cigarettes a day.
Christiane Amanpour
Well, I'm very pleased to hear it. I actually thought you had completely cured your nicotine habit and were only vaping. So on the one hand. On the other hand.
Jamie Rubin
Yeah, it's two steps.
Christiane Amanpour
All right, let's get serious because we're about to start. And this is, as we all know, the Q and A episode of the X Files with Jamie Rubin, who's down to two cigarettes a day in New York, I think, and me in London, as you can see from the very realistic backdrop behind me. So let us get started. There's a lot going on. Let's talk first. Jamie, you know Chris, on email, Donald Trump says the ceasefire between the US and Iran is over. How seriously, he asks, Chris, should we take this? Do you think there could be a return to a hot war? Well, I'm just gonna say as we speak, which is around lunchtime UK time on Wednesday, Donald Trump is sitting talking to the press in Ankara where he's been attending the NATO summit. And he's pretty upset. He's not in great hum. This is obviously not the way he wanted to go he, we think, wants an end to this war. And Iran keeps trying to assert its prerogatives, as the US Keeps trying to assert its prerogatives. And now we're back in a tit for tat shooting match. President Trump called the Iranian regime scum, called them sick, but he's done that before. And then he says, oh, they're strong, they're good negotiators, some of them are nice people. So what should we make of this escalation?
Jamie Rubin
Well, that's a good question. First, I think all of us in a situation where we're dealing with a kind of autocratic leadership run with really by one person. And we also don't know what the Iranian position is, it's very difficult to assess exactly where we're going. But let me do my very best. We've had tit for tats before. We've had occasions when the US has felt the need to use airstrikes to prevent Iran from asserting control over the Strait of Hormuz, which is what they were trying to do over the weekend in the last few days. And the Iranians have responded as they always do to ensure they say they're not, you know, going to just stand by. But they have responded in what I would call a limited way, attacking the poor countries of Kuwait and Bahrain rather than Saudi Arabia or Israel or other countries that might be more likely to respond themselves, like the United Arab Emirates. And so I do believe that neither party wants a return to full scale war because in a very weird way, each party somehow seems to think they got the better of the other side. The United States thinks it destroyed, you know, a large portion of Iran's military, which it did. And the Iranians think that it withstood that attack and survived and is a resilient country and now has new powers in the Strait of Horror, moves they didn't have before. So they think they are in a better position. But none of that gives us a solution to the problem of trade and the end of the conflict. And so I think what we're in is a neither war nor peace situation where it's going to be day to day watching what's going on. I think there are divisions and for the first time putting.
Christiane Amanpour
Yeah, let me just talk about that. Oh, in America.
Jamie Rubin
Both. Both in America and in Iran. But let's start with Iran. Why don't you mention those?
Christiane Amanpour
Well, because I think certainly for Iran this has been a moment where they just don't want to go on with war. And you're right, it might be tip for that, but they don't want to do this. They want to end the war. They want to restart their economy. They know, in fact, that right now, some of the existential threat to them from the inside, from the people of Iran, is the economy. And this happening as millions of people over the last six days have been turning out in Iran and across Iranian cities and even wending away through the holy Shiite cities of Najaf and Karbala in Iraq to bury the assassinated supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, who was assassinated four months ago at the very beginning of this war and will be buried on Thursday as this episode drops in the religious city of Mashhad where he was born. All to say that this huge outpouring, whether it was orchestrated or not, is a demonstration to Iranians and to the world that there is still a big contingent for the regime. And they are trying to use this imagery to again, flex their muscles, not just at home, but also on the international stage. And furthermore, I'm told by analysts that Iran just doesn't trust the United States and believes that somehow this 60 day memorandum of understanding was designed to help the US just shore up its defenses again, get its ammunition up and running again, get its ducks in a row to just start war again. So some of those we were talking about divisions inside Iran, there are a contingent of even hardliners, harder hardliners than the ones who've been empowered because of this war. And they just don't want any deal with the United States. They say this is a betrayal. They say that we're just going to show them once and for all. And even the person who's negotiating with the Americans, Mohammed Gali Baf, he put out a statement today saying the era and the age of bullying Iran is over, Over. We need to sort this out once and for all. So in a way, that's kind of what's happening with this exchange and volley of fire as they try to figure out where it's all going to land. But Jamie, interestingly, and I don't think they're in the majority, but these hard hardliners in Iran are basically saying, where is Mujtab al Khamenei? Whose side is he on? Does he agree really with the negotiators, or does he think that we should, like his father said, treat Iran as the America, as the great SA and never go into any negotiating position with them because we can't trust them. So I think this is a very interesting point and time and, you know, some People even shouted at the foreign minister, Arakchi, who's also a member of the negotiating team, you know, traitor, traitor. At these funeral outpourings. So it's very difficult in there as well, but let's carry on. Jamie, there's another question. I think you should ask this one because it's similar.
Jamie Rubin
This is from Virginia on email. You said on the podcast it was probably me, but one of us clearly did, that The US Was humiliated by its conflict with Iran, but the US Also withdrew from Vietnam and Afghanistan after years of fighting. Does the recent war with Iran feel different from those two conflicts, and if so, why? It does feel different to me, and I'll tell you why. In Vietnam and Afghanistan, the United States committed ground troops for many, many, many, many years and lost a lot of sol and changed our country in many ways during Vietnam and in Afghanistan demonstrated to some people our staying power in that we were there for 20 years. To others that we left when we did. And this is very different. This is different because this was a situation where we were in a better place prior to the war. In other words, after striking Iran's nuclear facilities in this operation called Midnight Hammer, we had pretty much damaged their nuclear capability, which is what this was all about, and we should have stayed right there. Instead, President Trump somehow got convinced by his own advisors, and the Israelis clearly played a role to try to change the regime and then escalated this war to a dramatically different objective. And very quickly, it became apparent that these objectives could not be met. And so I think the reason why this feels more humiliating and more painful is because it was, from the beginning, an impossible mission, unless you thought that just killing the supreme leader was going to cause the country to rise up and oppose the regime, which obviously it didn't. Vietnam and Afghanistan were painful episodes in American foreign policy, causing terrible damage to people and our country and obviously terrible damage inside Afghanistan and Vietnam. But in the end, the Vietnam conflict ironically came to be a place where Vietnamese are now our friends. That's not true with Afghanistan, obviously, but in Afghanistan, I think everyone understood that the mission was very difficult from the beginning. To try to turn Afghanistan, a country as backward as it was, into some sort of functioning democracy was an extremely bold and difficult thing. Here, the situation was much different. And I just think the way the war has been conducted, there was never any preparation, never any discussion with allies. Nobody seemed to support it. Afghanistan was supported by the whole world when it started, because of 9, 11. And this is one that I think you can't really find any supporters of. Other than Israel, who really do support it. The British allowed us to use bases. But. But no country really stood up and said this was a really great idea.
Christiane Amanpour
No, they didn't. Just a couple of. Pick up a couple of things. Obviously, in Vietnam, the United States had to withdraw, essentially under Vietnam's terms. It doesn't seem that way, but it was because they just kept killing more and more Americans and there was no way out of this. And Iran is very similar. The MoU is very, very much stacked towards Iranian terms. And maybe that's what's irritating Trump right now, because he has been roundly criticized by the whole world. And in fact, it wasn't us necessarily, although we did say it, but we were also quoting other world leaders, for instance, some Europeans and others who said that the MOU showed that it was a humiliation of the Trump war aims, that none of them had been met except for the degradation, further degradation, as Jamie pointed out, of some of their military capability. But I think Afghanistan, I'm not going to use the word backward, but I'm going to say Afghanistan was a good war. They had to go into Afghanistan. In Afghanistan is where Al Qaeda and Osama bin Laden, hosted by the Taliban, launched the 911 attacks. And I think the objective was correct in Afghanistan. For me, the problem with Afghanistan was the, was the withdrawal. I think a contingency of NATO troops should have stayed, and the vast majority of NATO troops thought the same thing. It was only Donald Trump at the end of his first term who insisted on dragging US Troops out and not even leaving a few thousand as a bulwark, which would have made a difference, I believe, you know, and he basically just negotiated with the Taliban essentially, not with the Afghan government. And so we've seen the result. Afghanistan went back to the Taliban, and the result is terrible on every single level, most especially for the ordinary people who are deep in more poverty and the women who are practically, you know, confined to their houses. So it is different. But I would say that none of these are very good records. And the United States need to think very, very closely before it enters another war on what exactly is the mission and what's the exit plan as we're talking? I just want to point out that Trump, on this other war here in Europe, Russia invading Ukraine, has just said he told the Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelensky, that he's going to give them licenses, Jamie, Ukraine licenses to make Patriot missiles. So I think that's interesting. Zelenskyy clearly is having a lot of success, you know, using Deep strikes, most particularly inside Crimea. Russia annexed Crimea to try to put more pressure on Putin. So that's an interesting note from Trump just now.
Jamie Rubin
I mean, by the way, on that before we go, leave that, because I'm glad you brought that up. The Ukraine war is a very painful subject for everybody, especially the Ukrainians, because it's so obvious after all these years that Russia can't win the war. It can't take over Ukraine. In fact, it's having a lot of trouble despite its huge size and its huge military even making any progress. And the Ukrainians are showing us incredible skill on the battlefield and teaching the modern world about modern warfare with drone capabilities and advanced artificial intelligence usages and a lot of other technical know how. That is probably teaching a way of war that the world is going to need to know a lot more about. And in the beginning of the administration, we faced a prospect of Donald Trump really pulling the rug out from under the Ukrainians. And we had that horrible day in the White House when Zelenskyy was humiliated. We've come a long way since then. And I have to say that the European countries deserve enormous credit for standing up and saying, no, this is our continent. We're not going to allow Russia to invade its neighbor with hundreds of thousands of troops. We're going to help our friends in Ukraine. And they have been doing so and spending tens of billions of dollars doing so developing new ways to do so, as the US Is been less helpful than it was under the Biden administration. Considerably less helpful. But President Trump seems to have found a way where he says it's not really his problem. Europeans can buy some American weapons for Ukraine and America can provide certain capabilities to Ukraine that are unique and let Ukraine fight it out and no longer telling Zelensky to give up. I think in the scheme of life, that's progress.
Christiane Amanpour
It is. But unfortunately, it looks like, according to inside reports from the Trump administration, that they too, like the Biden administration that you work for, worry about Russia and Putin's saber rattling and is escalating to a dangerous point. So the whole nuclear thing is frightening this administration as well. Just a quickie at the NATO meeting. Denmark, a member of NATO, also has sovereignty over Greenland and has said that it will defend every single inch of NATO territory. A very pointed remark around a table with Trump, who still seem to have an eye on Greenland. So I just wanted to point that out.
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Christiane Amanpour
Louisa on Instagram what do you make of Trump's call to the FIFA president to help lift an American player's suspension before the Belgium match? And why do you think that up to this point, Trump had kept away from the World Cup? So I'm going to take this first. I think it's an abomination. It's the first time in something like 62 years or since 1962 that this kind of thing has happened. There was one small incident, apparently a long, long time ago. But today, for the president of the host nation to call up the head of FIFA and say we want our main strikers red card annulled so that he can play in the next match. Because as we know, a red card means you can't play in the next match. It's a red card. And duly the suspension was lifted. So everybody who knows football, soccer and people around the world were just really infuriated. Now it has to be said that even with him having his suspension overturned, they lost the match to Belgium. And maybe there's some poetic justice in that, I don't want to say that, but it really was an abomination. And as to why he's kept away from it for so long, Trump, who knows why, he's got a lot of things on his plate, but it had been a very good tempered, good humored, great atmosphere, great play. World cup and now, you know, his first intervention causes this sour mood. Got any thoughts, Jamie?
Jamie Rubin
Yes, I do. Look, prior to this intervention, I think the World cup was showing one of the unique features of the United States, namely that we are a country of immigrants and there are communities from all over the world that live in the United States that found a joy in being able to root for their team from the country which they came. And America really is unique in this way, that there's people who have come and settled here from Europe, from Latin America, from Africa, from Asia, and there's no other country really quite like it. And there was bonding that took place between some of those teams and Americans and some of those people who came from that country showing their ethnic background and yet still being able to feel American and That is what makes America a unique country. And it was actually quite remarkable. And there are some very moving stories about it. Obviously, Donald Trump's inability to stay away from, you know, look, this is his skill. He gets involved in everything. That's the current subject matter. That's what he does. He does it, you know, so that we're talking about this, I have to believe that the effect of that intervention really had an effect on the game. I really do. I just. Soccer is not my specialty, but I've talked to enough people to know that the United States team really didn't play very well. I think everyone acknowledged that. I think nobody really wanted to say the reason they didn't play very well was because of Trump's intervention. But I can't imagine that it helped because they knew that even if they won, that this would be a black mark against them. And the people who play soccer, play football are sportsmen, and they really believe in the system. And to have the system apparently abused in such a dramatic way probably even inspired the Belgians to play harder. And I think it just shows you sometimes, look, if you really do these weird interventions, the worst thing you can do is tell anybody about it. And so it really fit both President Trump's inability to stay away and his inability to not try to take credit for something. And that's the weird part of it.
Christiane Amanpour
I wonder, if you please comment on why they lost.
Jamie Rubin
Well, I think he did in the beginning. He protected himself as a, you know, clever sportsman by saying, and then if they lose, they lose, that's fine. But he didn't really. I think people will be examining and talking to the players and trying to understand whether this gave an extra, extra boost to the Belgians and, And. And undermined the psychology. Because soccer is a game of a team game. And when your teams, you know, spirit has been, you know, affected that way, I can't imagine that it had no effect.
Christiane Amanpour
Yeah, it is. It is a, you know, a really a shame because it was going so well. I know it will continue to go well, but this is a moment that. That was just so unnecessary. Now, why don't you read the very last question then?
Jamie Rubin
Howard, on email asks, what's your reaction to Marine Le Pen saying she will appeal her conviction and run for the French presidency next year? Do you think there's a genuine chance she could win? And what would that mean for France and Europe if she does? Well, look, she's not my kind of gal. Her policies are not policies that I believe are good for the world. They come from a tradition that is not, to me, the finest tradition of France.
Christiane Amanpour
She's far right, she's the leader of the far right.
Jamie Rubin
But liberty, egality and fraternity. You know, the French Revolution was not consistent to me with what the things she says and does and has been doing and her family has been saying and doing and the party has been saying and doing. I would be worried about her winning. I do worry that she can win. I do believe that Europe is going through big, big changes and that the right has an ability to glom onto issues that are bothering people and cause strange election outcomes. I think in the end, the runoff system has shown that most French people don't want to have an extreme right president and that that is the one saving grace of their runoff system. But this time around, I don't think we can rule it out. The world has changed so much. The information environment has changed so much. The ability of people to stay in their silos and not really think about the other side, failure of being able to talk to each other, all of these damages to the fact based world that democracy thrives on. Remember, Macron said something very powerful. He said, what were we thinking when we handed our public square over to American tech barons and Chinese government corporations? And so the democracies that require facts have been damaged in Europe. I don't know what's going to happen. Obviously the last big election was in Hungary and things went against the right. And I, as a, as an American who wants to see France as our friend, believe that France run by Marine Le Pen is going to become more of a danger than a friend. But this is what happens when the whole system has its structure pulled out from under it. When President Trump basically says to the Europeans, you know, we're not really your backstop anymore, and raises questions about that. And that throws the whole system into what I would call a jeopardy.
Christiane Amanpour
Yeah, let's just, I need to just point out what exactly happened. Howard, you know, recounts it, but let's just remember that Marine Le Pen was convicted of financial fraud and she was sentenced to a, I think a fine, but also a five year ban from running for national office. And now this week, her appeal was heard. The appeal upheld the conviction, but shortened the time of the ban to make her eligible to be able to run in the presidentials next year, 2027. So that's what happened. And she's immediately said she is going to run and she is a candidate. I think a lot of what you've said is absolutely correct and I think I would just add the fact that these disruptors, whether it's Marine Le Pen, whether it's Donald Trump, whether it's Nigel Farage, and we'll talk about him in a minute, the Brexit guy, whether it's afd, are powered by several things, not least the economic stagnation that shows people are not essentially earning a fair wage. The ordinary men, women and young people are not earning, you know, fair wages. There's been a stagnation on the wage front ever since the financial crash, certainly here in the UK and elsewhere in Europe. And it's a real big problem. And that is one of the things that Powers, in this case, the far right, and whenever it's, you know, raises his head, the far left as well. It's economic stagnation and the inability to grow economies that are really making people very, very upset, very depressed. It's become sort of ungovernable. Look, here in the UK, we got about to have seven prime ministers in 10 years since Brexit. And all these, you know, politicians make promises that a are pulled out of thin air, but also they can't deliver even the far right or the far left. So it just continues that cycle of cynicism.
Jamie Rubin
I remember living in London during the vote on Brexit, and I remember when the voters were told there was going to be a wave of Turkish and Islamic immigration.
Christiane Amanpour
Oh, yes, 60 billion Turks, the entire
Jamie Rubin
population, Boris Johnson, were going to sweep into Europe. And instead, all this money that was was spent on immigration was going to be spent on the health care system. And for some reason, those false claims, false fears and false promises were believed enough to swing the vote. And I think what we learned is that that immigration wave never did happen. That, yes, immigration is a big problem for Europe. And that's the issue that drives Marine Le Pen, because France is struggling with its own immigration problems. But there are ways to deal with immigration without turning it into an us against them mentality, which is at the core of her policies and the core of many of these far right policies that you and I can't understand. The other is not the enemy. The other is something that we all need to live together, work together, talk to each other. And yes, big problems need to be resolved, but they're not resolved by turning the other into the enemy.
Christiane Amanpour
Right. And just a last one, on the far right, we've got Nigel Farage, who was the Brexit leader, who became the leader of a party called Reform, which is even more disruptive and more far right than the Brexit party. Now he has resigned his seat as an MP because over the weekend the press broke this story about him improperly, they allege receiving £5 million and you know, more in the past for personal loans. He says it's a personal issue, not a political issue. In any event, he's resigned. We'll see what happens certainly in the next 5 million. He was given a gift. I believe it's 5 million. Yeah. Yeah. While ordinary people are struggling to make their bills, their mortgages, their, you know, bread and butter and try to keep, you know, body and soul together. Anyway, that is all we have time for. Thank you for listening to this episode, the Q and A episode of the X Files. Of course. As always, if you have questions for us, send them via social media or by email here or our handles at amanpour pod. Email amanpourpodlobal.com Our next episode is as ever, out on Tuesday. Remember, you can always listen to us for free on Global Player. And don't forget, you can watch us by subscribing to our YouTube channel where you can find us and all our episodes. You just search Christiana Vanpour presents the X Files Bye bye from London.
Jamie Rubin
Goodbye from New York City.
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Jamie Rubin
Price void In Florida, this has been a global production.
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Episode: Q&A: Is this America’s most humiliating war in history?
Release Date: July 9, 2026
Hosts: Christiane Amanpour (London) & Jamie Rubin (New York)
In this Q&A-focused episode, Christiane Amanpour and Jamie Rubin field listener questions about modern geopolitical crises. The central topic is the aftermath and significance of the U.S.–Iran conflict, and whether it represents one of America’s most humiliating wars. Drawing on recent developments—ranging from Iran’s internal politics and the burial of the supreme leader, to U.S. diplomatic missteps, French far-right politics, and surprising World Cup controversies—the hosts offer candid, sometimes searing, analysis punctuated with humor and personal perspective.
Timestamps: 00:34–07:48
Notable Quote:
“I do believe that neither party wants a return to full scale war because in a very weird way, each party somehow seems to think they got the better of the other side.”
– Jamie Rubin [03:46]
Timestamps: 07:48–13:27
Notable Quote:
“This feels more humiliating and more painful, because it was, from the beginning, an impossible mission, unless you thought that just killing the supreme leader was going to cause the country to rise up and oppose the regime, which obviously it didn’t.”
– Jamie Rubin [09:01]
Timestamps: 13:27–16:08
Notable Quote:
“The Ukraine war is a very painful subject for everybody, especially the Ukrainians… but the Ukrainians are showing us incredible skill on the battlefield and teaching the modern world about modern warfare.”
– Jamie Rubin [13:40]
Timestamps: 16:41–21:04
“It really was an abomination… his first intervention causes this sour mood.” [17:00]
Timestamps: 21:17–27:02
Notable Quotes:
“These disruptors, whether it’s Marine Le Pen, whether it’s Donald Trump, whether it’s Nigel Farage… are powered by several things, not least the economic stagnation that shows people are not earning a fair wage.”
– Christiane Amanpour [23:52]
“There are ways to deal with immigration without turning it into an us against them mentality, which is at the core of her policies and the core of many of these far right policies.”
– Jamie Rubin [26:00]
Timestamps: 27:02–28:21
On American wars:
“None of these are very good records. And the United States need to think very, very closely before it enters another war on what exactly is the mission and what’s the exit plan.”
– Christiane Amanpour [12:13]
On global disorder:
“Forget about a new world order – right now, there’s no world order.”
– Episode theme
| Topic | Start | End | |-----------------------------------------|---------|---------| | U.S.–Iran escalation | 00:34 | 07:48 | | America’s “most humiliating war?” | 07:48 | 13:27 | | The Ukraine war & NATO | 13:27 | 16:08 | | Trump’s World Cup intervention | 16:41 | 21:04 | | Marine Le Pen & European far right | 21:17 | 27:02 | | Nigel Farage’s scandal | 27:02 | 28:21 |
This episode of The Ex Files offers a fast-paced, deeply informed, and at times bitterly funny deconstruction of today’s most pressing crises—from the deeply fraught end to the U.S.–Iran war and its humiliations, to the enduring struggle between liberal democracy and rising populist, far-right forces across the West. Questions from listeners anchor the discussion in real-world anxieties, while the hosts’ years of frontline experience keep the analysis sharp, judged, and grounded.
For further engagement, listeners can submit questions via social or email, and subscribe to the podcast or its YouTube channel for upcoming episodes.