Episode Overview

Episode Title: Q&A: The killing of “El Mencho”, Trump’s Chagos U-turn and rigged US midterms?
Date: February 26, 2026
Hosts: Christiane Amanpour & Jamie Rubin
Theme:
This bonus Q&A episode of The Ex Files leverages Christiane and Jamie’s deep expertise to answer listener questions on urgent global flashpoints—from China–Taiwan tensions and cartel violence in Mexico, to shifting US–UK relations over Diego Garcia, regime change ambitions in Iran, the British monarchy’s crisis, and the state of American democracy. With candid banter and sharp, big-picture analysis, the hosts untangle the realities and risks at the heart of today’s most fraught headlines.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. China, Xi Jinping, and Taiwan: Could Beijing Move Now?

[01:13 – 03:23]

• Question: Does the current US military focus on the Middle East make it more likely that China might try to move on Taiwan?

• Jamie’s Take:

  • Xi Jinping is unlikely to act now. Recent purges among China’s military leadership mean Xi doesn’t trust his own top brass, making a risky, complex military operation (like invading Taiwan) improbable.
  • Quote: “He doesn't trust anyone at the top levels of his military. And I don't think he would make this grand roll of the dice at a moment like this.” (Jamie, 01:40)
  • Taiwan’s Advantage: The Ukraine war has shown that cheap, effective naval drones can counter large navies, and Taiwan’s tech edge positions it to replicate this. Jamie believes this acts as a strong deterrent against Chinese adventurism.
  • Quote: “If there was ever a country that was best suited to build tens of thousands of drones, it's Taiwan…” (Jamie, 02:04)

• Christiane’s Reflection:

  • Acknowledges the US’s naval redeployment but links drone warfare innovations to David vs. Goliath resistance, referencing Ukraine’s Snake Island defenders (“F you Russian soldiers”) as symbols for embattled democracies.
  • Broader theme: Lessons from Ukraine are being learned worldwide, affecting the Taipei–Beijing standoff.

2. The Killing of El Mencho: Implications for US-Mexico Security Cooperation

[03:23 – 09:12]

• Christiane’s Brief:
  • Major cartel kingpin killed in Mexico, with rumors (but denials) of US involvement. What does this portend for joint anti-cartel strategies?
• Jamie’s Analysis:
  • Diplomatic delicacy is key. Mexico will not tolerate overt US operations on their soil—official denials from both sides preserve national sovereignty and political stability.
  • “I don't think the drug war can be won by killing criminal kingpins, but I think it's a good thing to put to justice criminal kingspins pins who've done such horrific damage.” (Jamie, 06:41)
  • Killing kingpins prompts violent cartel backlash—riots, arson, threats—making immediate security conditions worse for civilians.
  • Long View: Destroying cartels requires systemic change, not just decapitation strikes.
  • Geopolitics: Trump’s pressure on Mexico for increased crackdowns could strengthen political ties, and the importance of Mexico to the US (especially economically) is emphasized.
  • Quote: “Mexico, American relationship economically is so much bigger than people understand...” (Jamie, 08:20)

3. Trump’s Chagos U-turn & The US–UK–Mauritius Triangle

[09:22 – 14:56]

• Christiane’s Context:
  • Drawing on her investigative work, Christiane explains the historical injustice of the Chagos Islanders’ forced displacement for a US military base (Diego Garcia) and the new UK-Mauritius sovereignty deal—once supported by Trump, now reversed.
  • Suggests Trump’s flip came after UK PM Keir Starmer blocked US use of Diego Garcia for Iran operations.
  • Quote: “This is actually the first time in certainly decades... that the UK has said to the United States, its closest ally, you can't use our [military base].” (Christiane, 13:50)
• Jamie’s Big-Picture Framing:
  • Diego Garcia’s value is strategic, not symbolic—it’s the US’s global power in microcosm, allowing global force projection.
  • Principle vs. Power: Should the US and UK respect international law and sovereignty, or do “might makes right”?
  • Quote: “If you don't believe in the international system ... you think the might just makes right... That's the behavior of Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping in China.” (Jamie, 12:32)
  • Warns against the US falling into the same exceptionalist logic it bemoans elsewhere.

4. Trump, Iran, and The Missing Debate Over War

[14:06 – 19:39]

• Christiane’s Lament:
  • There’s strikingly little public debate or international coalition-building compared to the 2003 Iraq War. The administration’s military objectives in Iran are unclear, raising alarm about precipitate action and possible regime change motivations.
  • Quote: “... something this massive is happening, even just the buildup, with literally zero debate at all and apparently no care at all amongst people anywhere. And it could be very, very consequential.” (Christiane, 15:43)
• Jamie’s Perspective:
  • Trump is pushing the possibilities of presidential power and seems emboldened by his perceived successes in Venezuela and with Israel.
  • Cabinet Divide: Decision-makers are split, with VP Vance and DNI Gabbard opposed; Secretary of State Rubio and Defense Secretary Hegseth in favor.
  • “They're not going to get what they want, which is regime change. ... because they know they can't do that from the air.” (Jamie, 17:39)
• Wider Point: Regime change is unlikely; Iran’s security apparatus is deeply entrenched, and airstrikes alone won't shatter it.
  • Civic upheaval can’t happen while bombs are falling; regime resilience depends not on popularity but force.

5. The British Monarchy and the Mountbatten Windsor Crisis

[21:50 – 23:25]

• Question: Could Prince Andrew’s arrest fuel anti-monarchy sentiment in Britain, and does it deflect attention from US figures with similar allegations?
• Christiane:
  • Sees this as the greatest institutional test for the monarchy in a century. The king’s public stance (rule of law applies to all) is aiming to preserve trust at a perilous moment.
  • The question “who knew what, when” (echoing Watergate) may widen the scandal beyond Prince Andrew himself.
  • Quote: “...once that [compact of trust] starts to be broken and frayed, then there's no telling where it might end up. ... the most important test case in 100 years.” (Christiane, 22:45)
  • In the US, such scandals have done reputational damage but haven’t implicated political leaders in the same systemic way.

6. US Midterms: Are Elections at Risk of Being Rigged?

[23:25 – 26:49]

• Question from Jill: Will the US midterms be rigged in favor of the Republicans?
• Jamie’s Detailed Reassurance:
  • US elections are decentralized; states run their own elections, typically with civic-minded, nonpartisan officials.
  • Voter suppression and climate of doubt are real concerns, but outright rigging is technically and institutionally improbable.
  • Quote: “State bureaucrats, people who work, state officials, people who are just average Joes and Jills run these elections... votes cannot be rigged.” (Jamie, 23:30)
  • Most chillingly, he warns of a potential constitutional crisis if federal forces (National Guard) attempt to seize ballot boxes without court orders, but doubts military leaders would follow such illegal commands.
  • Quote: “...where one institution with guns is facing another institution with guns and the use of force and one controls those ballot boxes...” (Jamie, 25:14)
• Christiane: Notes how widespread this anxiety is domestically and globally.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Xi and Taiwan (01:40, Jamie):
  “He doesn't trust anyone at the top levels of his military. And I don't think he would make this grand roll of the dice at a moment like this.”
• On US-Mexico relations (08:20, Jamie):
  “Mexico, American relationship economically is so much bigger than people understand in terms of trade and imports and shared technology and joint production...”
• On the Chagos Islands (13:50, Christiane):
  “This is actually the first time... the UK has said to the United States, its closest ally, you can't use our [military base].”
• On shameful power politics (12:32, Jamie):
  “That's the behavior of Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping in China. And what I've been horrified to see in the American political debate...”
• On the missing war debate (15:43, Christiane):
  “…something this massive is happening…with literally zero debate at all and apparently no care at all amongst people anywhere. And it could be very, very consequential.”
• On monarchy crisis (22:45, Christiane):
  “…the most important test case in 100 years.”
• On the midterms (23:30, Jamie):
  “State bureaucrats, people who work, state officials, people who are just average Joes and Jills run these elections... votes cannot be rigged.”

Timestamps for Major Segments

• [01:13] – Will China move on Taiwan now?
• [03:23] – The killing of El Mencho and US–Mexico anti-cartel strategies
• [09:22] – Trump’s Chagos U-turn: UK, US, Mauritius & military basing politics
• [14:06] – With Iran, where’s the debate? US war aims and risks
• [21:50] – Could Andrew Mountbatten Windsor’s arrest spark anti-monarchy sentiment?
• [23:25] – Will the US midterms be rigged? Election fears and federal overreach

Tone and Interaction

• Candid, frank, with trademark banter: Christiane and Jamie’s repartee infuses insider gravitas with a touch of dry humor, making dense geopolitics accessible and urgent.
• Honesty and skepticism: Both hosts repeatedly call out official denials and political “blame games,” urging listeners to focus on longer-term consequences and not just the drama of the moment.
• Engagement with listeners: The episode responds to real listener questions, creating a direct connection with the audience’s concerns.

This episode provides an unvarnished, deeply informed guide to the world’s geopolitical powder kegs—and the ways they’re shifting beneath our feet.