← Christiane Amanpour Presents: The Ex Files
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- [00:03]
Jamie Rubin
This is a Global Player original podcast.
- [00:09]
Christiane Amanpour
Hello, and welcome to the bonus episode of Christiane Amanpour presenting the X Files with Jamie Rubin.
- [00:16]
Jamie Rubin
Who are you? I'm Jamie Rubin and I'm the X in the X Files.
- [00:21]
Christiane Amanpour
You are. And this is the Q and A episode where we are answering your questions. And we want to thank everybody for sending in so many really interesting, thoughtful and varied questions. And we're really actually kind of excited to see how deeply you've got into this subject matter and how interested you are and what good questions you have to try to keep moving this ball forward. So please do keep sending them in. You can find us on social media. Our handle is Manpurpod. Or you can email us@amanpourpodlobal.com so let's get started. Started. James, take the first question.
- [01:01]
Jamie Rubin
All right, the first question is from Shay on Instagram. In your opinion, why did American voters choose Trump for a second time instead of Kamala? Boy, that's a good question. I wish I had a good answer for that. Let me do the best I can. I don't know is the first answer. The second answer is, look, I am not the perfect analyst of American politics. I, you know, gotten things wrong before, I'll get things wrong again. To the extent I try to think about these things, I try to take the highest level thinking and imagine a grand pendulum. There's a pendulum in American politics. It swings back and forth. Our voters essentially have 45% on each side guaranteed, and they fight over that 10% in the middle. When the country thinks the pendulum is swung too far one way, they swing back the other way. After eight years of Obama, they clearly thought the country swung too far towards the left. Things like lgbt, so called wokeness, all of the focus on identity politics rather than substance and things that weren't identity politics. Yale did a Trump election the first time. He also did something that hadn't been done before. He spoke like a normal person. He didn't use talking points. He spoke very naturally. I thought it was naturally awful, but some people obviously liked it and they voted for him. I think in a sense, the Biden administration lived through a difficult time economically and didn't get it just right. And the country thought that Trump was gonna solve their economic problems, which were real and affected people and didn't focus enough on the damage that a Trump presidency could do to our position in the world and frankly, what the consequences would be for a massive focus on immigration, where the crackdown is now particularly extreme. The stories are starting to pile up and the country is turning against Trump's pendulum. So the pendulum swung too far in one direction. The public voted to swing it back. Trump, I think, is pushing the pendulum too far towards many things on immigration and tax cuts for the rich. And I hope and expect the pendulum to swing back, at least in the upcoming midterm elections and see a Democratic House, at least. But see who the next Democratic presidential candidate is, whether it's Kamala Harris or somebody else, I don't know. And we'll find out whether Trump's pendulum has swung so far that the country forces it to swing back the other way.
- [03:41]
Christiane Amanpour
Just a quick ad for me on that. I think Trump, though, also manifests his own identity politics. His happened to be for a white America, and I think a lot of people identify with that. And it's crazy, since America is an actual immigration nation. And I also think you cannot underestimate or overestimate the power of fear as a campaign tool. And I think he used that a lot. It's certainly what happened in Brexit. The Brexiteers used fear a lot. Fear of just about everything. And Trump has used that a lot as well. Fear and demonization of the other. So I think that that also plays into those kinds of election victories. Now, Monique on Instagram, talking of Trump says, if you could interview Donald Trump, what is the one question you'd want to ask him? So, okay, Monique, I'm telling that that is not an easy question to answer because I've seen many, many people interview Donald Trump, and it's never satisfying because some feel they have to go full frontal at him and just throw the whole, you know, baby and the bathwater at him, trying to prove themselves or whatever. Others feel that they need to just focus on one tranche and try to dig down on whether it's immigration and deportation, whether it's the end of USAID and the consequences, whether it's foreign policy, as I would. So I think it would depend on the day I would try to hold my nerve and to be exceptionally well briefed and to really talk to a lot of people, which I don't often do when I go into interviews, but to try to figure out what on that particular day are the most important things. And I don't think it's okay to ask him, what about your commitment to democracy? You just go over and out of, you know, out of left field on that. I think it's just very instructive to see how so many people have essentially been rolled over by him that I would have to be very, very, very careful before. I mean, I'm not gonna get an interview with Trump because I've asked before and it hasn't happened. And in our system at cnn, it's really the Washington correspondents and the White House correspondents and the US Anchors who interview presidents. I've actually never, ever interviewed a sitting president. So except for one town hall question that I got to ask Clinton in his first term.
- [06:00]
Jamie Rubin
I remember it, madam.
- [06:01]
Christiane Amanpour
Oh, yes, and that was a good one. But anyway, I would say it's a hiding to nowhere to interview, to think about.
- [06:08]
Jamie Rubin
Let me tell you what I'd ask. If I had one question, I would focus on Bibi Netanyahu in the Middle east because Trump has gotten a lot of credit in Israel. And the American president's ability to affect things in Israel politically is very, very powerful when you're popular as Trump is in Israel, the way Clinton was in Israel. And Clinton was able to affect Israeli politics by forcing Netanyahu to take a position that ended up being unpopular. So what I would do is ask him whether he's going to use the capital he's built up with Netanyahu to finally get Prime Minister Netanyahu to marry the use of military force to real diplomacy in Gaza first, but in Iran second. Does he realize the extent to which pressure from him would force change on Israeli policy? And what I would ask would be what would be the downside for you to really hold Netanyahu's feet to the fire enforcing a solution in Gaza that would achieve your goal, Mr. President, of getting another country added to the Abraham Accord, Saudi Arabia, which would be a real Nobel Prize winning event. And it will only happen if Donald Trump puts pressure on Netanyahu. And that's where I would focus my attention.
- [07:34]
Christiane Amanpour
Okay, let's move on to some other ones. Some people are interested in issues that we've covered in previous episodes.
- [07:41]
Jamie Rubin
All right, so the first one is Jennifer on email. Why does the Arab world in the Middle east do seemingly nothing to help resolve the Gaza conflict? How would you recommend they play a more constructive role on this issue? Jennifer, that is a great question. It allows me to talk about what we talked about a bit with Secretary Blinken last week. There is something the Arab world can do that's very, very real to help the people of Gaza and that is to combine forces and agree on a method to replace Israel's forces in Gaza with an Arab led force supported by centcom, the US Military in the region. That could resolve the question of how to protect Israel's security by preventing Hamas from coming back, but also get the Israelis and allow reconstruction and development and frankly, first humanitarian assistance to end the misery in Gaza. The Arab world can do something about that. During our time in office, we saw a plan developed with the uae, with the Saudis, with the Jordanians, with the Egyptians. That was a realistic plan. As Secretary Blinken said, We are 85% of the way there. That's what the Arab world should be doing. Instead of just sitting back and saying, no, we're not going to recognize Israel as Saudi Arabia is doing until the war is over. They can engage, and that's.
- [09:05]
Christiane Amanpour
Why don't they do.
- [09:06]
Jamie Rubin
Why don't they? I don't know. I think they just think that Trump isn't committed and they won't. Trump won't put the pressure on Bibi Netanyahu that we just talked about. And so why should they expose themselves when the thing isn't going to happen? I've argued to Tony Blinken that when he spoke to the mbs, he should ask him about why MBS being the.
- [09:28]
Christiane Amanpour
Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, of Saudi Arabia.
- [09:30]
Jamie Rubin
Think about the following. MBS became very unpopular in what I would call the world's left of center because of the assassination of journalists. And the Palestinian issue is the one subject that unites the left of center. The Saudi Arabian government has the two holy sites in Mecca and Medina. If they played the role, they could as the most powerful Arab country to help resolve the Palestinian question, to help force the Israelis to see a pathway to a Palestinian state, they could be, along with Jordan, connected to the holy, holy site in Jerusalem. And this family of MBS could be connected to all of the holy sites and be a hero to the left of center in the world and redeem themselves and I bet win himself a Nobel Peace Prize.
- [10:24]
Christiane Amanpour
Okay, so I'm gonna argue with you on the Nobel Peace Prize because one of the things about the Abraham Accords is that they are not peace accords. These countries were not at war with Israel. They are normalization accords. They're good. You want normalization, but they're not peace accords. And, you know, we've been discussing this, but even if you get Saudi Arabia, unless it does what we've been saying, and that is extract the firm commitment for peace in Gaza and.
- [10:51]
Jamie Rubin
Exactly.
- [10:52]
Christiane Amanpour
And leading to a Palestinian state, it's just another normal.
- [10:55]
Jamie Rubin
Agreed.
- [10:57]
Christiane Amanpour
And in my opinion, I think I would ask Trump, you know, you guys acquiesce to Israel bypassing and the US Bypassing the whole Palestinian issue. When you had the Abraham Accords, as if somehow you could ignore the Palestinians in any resolution to what's happening in Gaza. And even now when Netanyahu comes to the White House and sits and chats at the Oval Office, there were days he was in Washington. I don't know what he was trying to do, but he went home with no ceasefire proposal. And in the meantime, still bombing Gazan women and children. And I'm going to focus on women and children. Women and children are being killed on a daily basis and in churches as well. So it's, it's really got to a very, very tricky position. So I do think that the big heavyweight in the region, Saudi Arabia and the others, uae, Qatar, all the US who play roles behind the scenes trying to get ceasefires, but they, you know, a ceasefire is not a peace deal. A ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine will not be a peace deal. A peace deal is what happens after there's a ceasefire and people get around the table with a set of objectives which should lead to peace. So you can see I'm pretty frantic about all this because it just stays, and I will say, even under the Biden administration. The National Security Advisor, Jake Sullivan, two weeks before October 7, said, Things are quite peaceful in this.
- [12:18]
Jamie Rubin
It was worse than that. It was worse than that. It was before I joined. So I can say this very much, but it's obvious. Obvious. The NSC senior advisor was a guy named Brett McGurk and he gave a speech to a Middle east institute and he actually did the following. He declared a Middle east doctrine for the Biden administration and he laid out a 45 minute endless speech on the Middle East. He actually never mentioned the word Palestinians or the Palestinian issue. And they were in the aftermath of the Abraham Accords. There was a view amongst the expert community in Washington, led by Brett McGurk, to just avoid the. And in the end, that turned out to be a big, big, big tragic mistake. Because that's when the failure to focus on what Hamas was up to led the Israeli government to let their guard down. And the tragedy of October 7th and all that came with that. So there is a fundamental truth. You can't ignore the Palestinian issue, period, ever.
- [13:21]
Christiane Amanpour
You could never ignore it and you can certainly not continue to ignore it. It's the basis, you know, no justice, no peace in the world.
- [13:36]
C
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- [14:42]
Christiane Amanpour
Our last question I think Jamie me I'm going to ask because you asked the first one and we did lots on that. So loner on email asks or says we all talk about the us, Europe and Israel in relation to Iran, but what are the countries located in and around hoping for? What interest do they have in a regime change in Iran? What does Turkey want? Think Oman, Turkmenistan, Armenia, Pakistan, Syria and other players. Will any of them take any actions and if so, what could that be? So look, look, she's right. Anytime we ever talk about anything in the Middle east, it's all about how to isolate Iran or shall we bomb Iran or do we want regime change Iran or all the rest of it. And I actually am one of those who believes that that obsession on Iran has actually failed to get a Middle east wide peace accord that has the Palestinian Israeli crisis at its very center. Because my view is that if that is is justly resolved for all sides it will go a huge long way, maybe the whole way to damping down the, you know, 45 years plus. I'm talking about the Islamic Revolution of Iran's existence 45 years ago. Deflection of actual resolving all the issues there. Now I think you can see what people countries like Oman wants because they they have been very instrumental in hosting back channel talks, having the first secret talks during the Obama administration on the Iran nuclear deal and preparing and doing. I think a lot of those countries want stability. Honestly nobody wants to see any kind of implosion. They don't want to see Iran turned into a failed state. They don't want to see Syria turned into a failed state. Although some think, or I'm not sure whether we discussed this Jamie, that Israel might want to see Syria turned into a failed state.
- [16:35]
Jamie Rubin
Whatever some in Israel do anyway.
- [16:38]
Christiane Amanpour
Yeah yeah. So I think what people want is stability. Can they get there? Can they all leverage their relevant and unique strengths to make that happen? That's questionable because in my opinion, all these countries that LONA has asked about, they're all off doing their own thing. There's very little evidence of coherent regional approach, and one that's sensible and smart and that deals with the security issues in question, deals with the. Nobody, but nobody talks about the human rights of the Iranian people. I am stunned that in 45 years of Western and regional policy towards Iran, nobody talks about human rights being at the center of a policy. Human rights for the Iranian people. It's all about terrorism, security, and nukes, period. End of story. So I think, really, after all of this, this inflection point of the bombing of Iran, for the first time in 45 years, Israel and the United States and whatever people think Iran's relative strength is right now, I think that they need to go back to some kind of drawing board and figure out how to get another deal on the nuclear thing and how to also focus on the rights of the Iranian people.
- [17:51]
Jamie Rubin
So I think this is a very good question. And let me pose again. My silver lining theory of foreign policy is taking advantage opportunities. Iran for the last 20, 25 years has been a pernicious influence in the region, around its country, and in broad.
- [18:09]
Christiane Amanpour
But not an existential influence.
- [18:11]
Jamie Rubin
No pernicious Israel, even the Israelis.
- [18:13]
Christiane Amanpour
But I want to say this because the rest of the world has considered Iran as an existential threat. But when I've asked many, many Israeli military, security, intelligence people, they have disagreed with that. And they say the unresolved issue between Israel and the Palestinians is the existential threat to Israel.
- [18:32]
Jamie Rubin
Right.
- [18:33]
Christiane Amanpour
Sorry. Go ahead, James.
- [18:34]
Jamie Rubin
To get to the question about what the people in the region might think, countries in the region might think. For the last 25 years, Iran has been a pernicious player. They have been arrogant. They have thought they could dictate and be a dominant figure. And in dominating, they have conducted some of the worst policies possible, leading, for example, to the support for Hafa's Assad son, Bashar Assad, to slaughter 500,000 of his own people because of help from the Iranian irgc, their Revolutionary Guards. Those people. Iran wanted to dictate what went on in Syria. They wanted to have a line of support all the way from the Persian Gulf to the Mediterranean. They played a terrible role in the region. One of the silver linings now is that Iran has realized that. That people in Iran, I hope, have realized that that policy is backfired big time. They are paying a terrible price. They can't expect the Hezbollah and Hamas and the Houthis to do all their fighting for them. Now it's come home to Iran, come home to the people of Iran, the policies that they have conducted. So maybe, just maybe, Iran can focus on its own country. And, and that is what the people in the region want. That's what the governments in the region want. Let Iran work on its own problems, whether they're human rights, economic or security, and stop interfering in their neighbors policies and stop being only supportive of what Russia and China want for the region. And that would be something that Oman, Turkey, Turkmenistan, Armenia, Syria, Pakistan, all the people mentioned in that question probably would like to see Iran focused on Iran and not trying to revive some era of the Shah of Shahs when they thought they were the most significant country in the region. Focus on themselves. They got plenty of work to do. And, and that would be in the interest of all the countries in the region. Stop working only with the Chinese and the Russians. Make a deal with the west that opens Iran up to the world, but opens them up economically, opens them up to use their culture in a positive way rather than use their terrorist organizations like Hezbollah, Hamas and Houthis to ruin the lives of countries in the region.
- [20:58]
Christiane Amanpour
And I just have to say, because when you say people in Iran, the people of Iran want precisely that, it's the government in Iran that has been working in that way for so long. The people have made themselves heard many, many times until now, to, you know, limited effect. Thank you all. That's the end of our bonus episode. Episode this Is yous Q and A's or your Q's. Ras. I'm Christian Amanpour presenting the X Files with Jamie Rubin. And remember, we always want to answer your questions, so keep them coming in and even if we don't answer them immediately, we'll try to answer them the following week. You can follow us, of course, on all the major social media platforms. Our handle is @amanpourpod and our email, we're amanpourpodlobal.com so unless next episode is on Tuesday, wherever you get your podcast, remember, you can listen for free on Global Player. You can download it from the App Store or go to globalplayer.com Bye. Bye, Jamie. Bye. Bye from Paris.
- [21:58]
Jamie Rubin
Goodbye from Carmela's Kitchen.
- [22:00]
Christiane Amanpour
Bye.
- [22:09]
Jamie Rubin
This is a Global Player original podcast.
- [22:13]
C
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